2017 Indian Wells Women’s Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
The BNP Paribas Open was set to be a battle for the world number one spot between Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams, but Serena’s withdrawal means that the German is now the new world number one. That does not take anything away from what should be an exciting tournament, and we have your run down of the draw.
Top Quarter:
Serena’s withdrawal means Karolina Pliskova is not the second seed. Like the others seeds, the Czech has a bye in the opening round and will kick off her tournament in the second. There are some tough matches ahead for Pliskova, including Monica Puig who she is due to face in the second round. Irina Begu is the first seed Pliskova will face with Timea Bacsinszky being the projected fourth round opponent. The Swiss has Kiki Bertens in her section, but she has a tough second match against the winner of Tsvetana Pironkova and Belinda Bencic. There are many threats to the second seed in her section, and while it will not be a shocker if she is upset in the early rounds, Pliskova should have too much quality and make it to the last eight. Garbine Muguruza is out of form and has recently been injured, so her Indian Wells ambitions may be lower than usual. The Spaniard should be able to make round three where she is due to face the dangerous Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. The uncertainty surrounding the seventh seed means that Elina Svitolina will be the favourite to make it to the last eight In this section. The Ukrainian has a good draw, too, with Daria Gavrilova being the only player that can cause an upset before the fourth round.
Pliskova and Svitolina will likely meet in the quarter finals for the sixth time, and the stats favour the Czech. Pliskova has won all five meetings, and it is difficult to see past her here. Prediction: Pliskova def. Svitolina Second Quarter: Dominika Cibulkova has been bumped to fourth seed as she eyes another big title. The Slovak will be favourite to make the final four from this quarter, but she has a tough draw ahead, starting with the winner of Jelena Ostapenko vs Danka Kovinic. The highly touted Russian, Daria Kasatkina, will look to spring another upset when she faces Cibulkova in round three, with the winner possibly going on to meet Barbora Strycova in round four. The Czech could face Sara Errani, who she has previously struggled against in the second round and then Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in round three, so an upset is not out of the question. Svetlana Kuznetsova is the other top eight seed in the section, but the ever unpredictable Russian’s tournament is once again hard to call. Kuznetsova should be OK to make round four with Camila Giorgi and Roberta Vinci being her likely opponents in rounds two and three. Johanna Konta is back in action after recent injury issues, and due to her recent inactivity it is hard to call how well she will do here. She could face fellow Brit Heather Watson in round two before being scheduled against the out of form Caroline Garcia in round three. The Frenchwoman’s struggles could leave the door open for Christina McHale to make the third round. Konta should make it through to round four, but may find Kuznetsova too much.
Cibulkova leads the head to head 6-3 against the Russian, but this match-up will largely depend on form. Cibulkova will be the favourite, but the slow courts may favour Kuznetsova and I am feeling a good run for the former grand slam champion.
Prediction: Kuznetsova def. Cibulkova
Third Quarter: Madison Keys returns to action this week after missing the start of the season with injury. The American is the eighth seed here and will be keen to make an impression, but don’t expect too much in her first tournament back. Keys has a good opener against a qualifier to get her rhythm back, but from there is gets tricky. The American’s likely exit will be at the hands of Caroline Wozniacki in round four. The Dane is in good form and should be comfortable until her round three match with Carla Suarez Navarro. It is hard to look past Wozniacki due to her good start to the season and Keys being rusty after a long layoff. Simona Halep’s season has yet to really get going, so the fourth seed will be looking to use this tournament to get into form. The Romanian opens against Alison Riske or Donna Vekic before facing the in-form Kristina Mladenovic. The Frenchwoman has had a positive start to 2017 and could spring an upset against an out of form Halep. Mladenovic is not terribly reliable though, and I see Halep outlasting the 28 seed.
With form being on Wozniacki’s side, I see the Dane making the last eight at Halep’s expense. If the fourth seed can play her way into form, then she will likely make it to the semis, but it is hard to make that call. Prediction: Wozniacki def. Halep
Fourth Quarter:
Kerber comes into Indian Wells safe with the knowledge that she is the world number one, and that must take some pressure off. The German has a good draw to the quarter finals with a lot of the dangerous seeds being in the other half of the draw. She opens against Andrea Petkovic or Vania king with Yulia Putintseva being the first seed projected. Elena Vesnina’s form is not the best, so she could exit early at the hands of Shelby Rogers or Timea Babos. Either way, it is difficult to see past Kerber making the last eight. Agnieszka Radwanska needs to find form, and Indian Wells is a perfect place to do so. The Pole has some tough players ahead of her however, so it will be interesting to see if she can get past Ekaterina Makarova in round two and promising youngster Ana Konjuh in round three. From there she will likely face an American. Coco Vandeweghe and Venus Williams are projected to meet in round three, but I think Radwanska will scrape through to the last eight.
Kerber vs Radwanska will be a big match for both players as they search for form. Kerber will have the advantage though and I am picking the German to make the last four.
Prediction: Pliskova def. Strycova
Kerber’s form at the moment makes it so difficult to predict her matches, but this time the German should turn it around and make the final. Pliskova is a favourite against Kuznetsova, but the Russian can play well enough to win the whole thing. I see a good run on the horizon, so I predict a Kerber vs Kuznetsova final.
Final: Kerber def. Kuznetsova
Kuznetsova will have a great week in Indian Wells but ultimately fall short to the world number one who looks much better this time.
2016 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 ATP Masters series calendar kicks off with the joint ATP/WTA event in sunny Indian Wells, CA, with most of the world’s best players participating.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Indian Wells, CA, USA
March 10-20, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $6,134,605
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses) (32 seeds receive first round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Kei Nishikori (6)
6: Tomas Berdych (7)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Richard Gasquet (10)
Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Kevin Anderson, Marcos Baghdatis, and Fabio Fognini are among notable names missing from this Masters tournament.
Ernests Gulbis is ranked outside the top 70, but the big hitting Latvian can still have moments of greatness, and he has a 2-1 h2h edge over his first round opponent Garcia-Lopez. GGL has lost three straight matches, and really could use a win in this one, expect a competitive contest with Gulbis having a slight edge.
Vasek Pospisil vs. (WC)Jared Donaldson
It’s been a disappointing year thus far for young American Jared Donaldson. He has just three match wins, and no main draw wins through March. Vasek Pospisil has also had a miserable year with just two match wins all season (2-6 record). Pospisil has a big serve and he’s higher ranked, thus he’s the favorite, but both guys need spring renewal in Indian Wells.
Lukas Rosol vs. Adrian Mannarino
The big hitting Rosol is 3-1 against Mannarino on hard courts, and he’s had an inconsistent year thus far. Mannarino has a pair of ATP quarterfinals on his resume, but his game isn’t a great matchup against Rosol, and he’s likely the underdog in this style contrast.
A battle of teenagers, Tiafoe has a pair of challenger quarterfinals this year as he is working his way up on tour. Fritz has risen into the top 80 with an ATP final (Memphis) and a quarterfinal (Acapulco). Both have a bright future, and could be the two stars of American tennis within a few years, in this matchup though, Fritz is a clear favorite.
(Q)Tim Smyczek vs. (WC)Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro made a successful return to the ATP tour in Delray Beach, where he reached the semifinals. Smyczek qualified, and has a quarterfinal in Delray Beach as well. Del Potro is the better player, and should be the favorite, but Smyczek is a good form test for him, and his wrist.
Borna Coric vs. Lucas Pouille
Borna Coric hasn’t been in great form since he reached an ATP final at the start of the season. The young Croatian is a great talent though, and should be able to outpace Pouille and his powerful forehand. Pouille is seeking an ATP breakthrough in a big tournament like this, and he’ll take his chances in this match between young guns.
Delray Beach finalist Rajeev Ram will put his serve and volley game up against qualifier Noah Rubin. The young Rubin has a bright future, and American tennis fans should be sure to check out his game. He’s a bit of an underdog in this match, but it could go either way.
Top Half:
Djokovic’s quarter
Novak Djokovic had a tough time in Davis Cup play over the weekend, and retired with an eye infection at his last tournament in Dubai. With that said, when he’s healthy the world #1 is practically impossible to stop, as he’s proven at tournaments prior to Dubai over the past few months. Presuming good health, Djokovic should get past qualifier Bjorn Fratangelo, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili before running into #27 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round. Kohlschreiber is 10-5 on the season and went 2-0 in Davis Cup action over the weekend. The veteran’s solid recent hard court form should give him an edge over Denis Kudla or Denis Istomin in round 2. Istomin hasn’t won a match this season, and Kudla has lost three straight. Djokovic is 4-0 against Kohli on hard courts and should advance to the fourth round.
#14 seed Roberto Bautista Agut is on track to face Djokovic in the 4th round. RBA is 16-4 on the season, and has been playing the tennis of his career. He’ll open with either Mikhail Youzhny or Aljaz Bedene, most likely the in-form Youzhny, with #18 seed Feliciano Lopez likely to follow. The Dubai semifinalist Lopez will face Gulbis/Garcia-Lopez round 2. Lopez won their only h2h meeting but given his recent form RBA has an edge.
#7 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face qualifier Vincent Millot, or wild card Mackenzie McDonald in his opening match. Tsonga has struggled as of late and he should be on upset alert against American Sam Querrey. The 28 year old is 11-4 on the tour this year with two ATP semifinals, and an ATP final in recent weeks. Querrey will be the favorite against Jiri Vesely or Thiemo De Bakker in his first match. Tsonga and Querrey are 1-1 in the h2h on hard courts.
#11 seed Dominic Thiem is set to face Querrey/Tsonga in the round of 16. Thiem has 2 ATP titles, and a 10-3 record this season. He’s making a push for a top 10 ranking at 22 years old, and will be a favorite against either Pierre- Hugues Herbert or Jozef Kovalik in round 2, both are qualifiers, with Herbert likely better on a hard court. #21 seed Jack Sock should defeat either qualifier Michael Berrer, or Juan Monaco. Thiem beat Sock last year in Miami, and he’ll be the favorite once more in round 3.
Nadal’s quarter
#4 seed Rafael Nadal is just 8-4 this year, and playing well below his usual lofty standards. With that said, he’s still a likely favorite against either Gilles Muller or Victor Estrella in round 2, with both players in poor form as of late. Nadal is likely to face Martin Klizan in round 3. The Rotterdam champion is a big hitter who has been in good form, and he should dispatch Fernando Verdasco in round 2. Verdasco opens with qualifier Peter Polansky. Klizan has a hard court win over Nadal, and Rafa should be on upset alert, but I still give him an edge to prevail due to his experience and fight.
A battle between the veteran Gilles Simon, and Grigor Dimitrov is likely to conspire in the third round for the right to face Nadal/Klizan. Dimitrov is likely to open with young gun Alexander Zverev, Zverev is rising fast with an ATP semifinal and quarterfinal this season. He opens with serve and volleyer Ivan Dodig. Dimitrov is a solid 12-5 on the season, and should get past that matchup to face Simon. Gilles hasn’t been great this year (4-5), but he should defeat Donaldson/Pospisil, as he just beat Pospisil in Davis Cup. Dimitrov was 0-4 against Simon until he beat him in Brisbane this year, and he should beat him again to reach the fourth round.
American #1 John Isner is set to have a good tournament on North American hard courts. The hard serving big man should defeat either Andreas Seppi or Donald Young to setup a third round match with Benoit Paire. Paire has two ATP semis this year but is wildly inconsistent. His first opponent will be Rosol or Mannarino. Paire and Rosol have met twice this year on hard courts, and split meetings. Isner is 1-0 against Paire on hard courts, and a better player on the surface.
#5 seed Kei Nishikori comes off a Davis Cup weekend to face either Mikhail Kukushkin or Daniel Munoz De La Nava first up. Kei is 11-4 on the season with 1 ATP title, he’s been slightly disappointing, but he should roll past Kukushkin and setup a third round match with Southern California native Steve Johnson. Johnson has struggled to a 3-6 record this year, but IW is his home tournament, and hard courts are his best surface. He should defeat Alexander Sarkissian or John Millman in round 2 as Millman hasn’t been in great form either. Nishikori is 3-0 against Johnson.
Bottom Half:
Murray’s Quarter
The British #1 opens with either Damir Dzumhur or Marcel Granollers. Andy Murray should handle that with ease, and also slip past Joao Sousa in the third round as he has a routine early draw. Sousa opens with Santiago Giraldo or Federico Delbonis as this section is full of players who prefer clay. Sousa is looking for his first ATP win since the Aussie open, where he lost to Murray in round 3.
Gael Monfils and Nick Kyrgios should setup a star studded third round matchup for the right to face Murray. Monfils opens with either Evgeny Donskoy or Pablo Carreno Busta, both of whom are well below his level, while Kyrgios will face either Hyeon Chung or Albert Ramos. Monfils has a lone h2h win over Kyrgios, and both are in great form (9-3 for Monfils, and 10-2 for Kyrgios). I give Monfils a slight edge to advance given Kyrgios has been struggling with back problems.
Aussie open semifinalist Milos Raonic returns from an injury to face either Nicolas Almagro or Inigo Cervantes in his first match. Raonic is a dangerous player on hard courts and already has an ATP title this year. If he stays aggressive, and doesn’t have too much rust he should do some damage in the draw and slide past Bernard Tomic in the third round. Tomic, the #17 seed, opens with Ram/Rubin, and should defeat most likely Ram once again. Raonic beat Tomic in Brisbane this year and should do so again if he’s fit.
Tomas Berdych opens with either Smyczek or Del Potro, and unless Del Potro is rapidly improving, the Czech should prevail. Berdych retired injured in Davis Cup play over the weekend, but if that was precautionary he should defeat Borna Coric or Thomaz Bellucci, most likely the young Coric in round 3. Bellucci is just 1-3 on hard courts this year. Berdych will be a heavy favorite against Coric if healthy.
Dubai champion Stan Wawrinka continues to be in the top tier of the men’s game. His gifted one hand backhand has won him many matches, and he should slip past either Dmitry Tursunov or Acapulco quarterfinalist Illya Marchenko, with Tursunov returning from injury. The 13-2 Wawrinka should face Jeremy Chardy in round 3, but I have Andrey Kuznetsov, an improving Russian player, defeating qualifier Marco Trungelliti, and Chardy to reach the third round. Kuznetsov beat Chardy at the Aussie Open this year and has two ATP quarterfinals to his name this season. Wawrinka should ease past Kuznetsov at that point.
David Goffin has a draw that he should be able to get to the fourth round in. Goffin opens with Fritz/Tiafoe, who could knock him off, but his third round match against one of Pablo Cuevas/Kyle Edmund/Guido Pella is an easy one. Cuevas isn’t a hard court player, but he’s been in great form as of late, and that should help him past Edmund, who has been stuck at the challenger level most of this year. Goffin is 8-4 on the year.
Richard Gasquet has his own chance to make noise at IW, but he’ll need to be fit and fresh to face his serve and volleying countryman Nicolas Mahut, or qualifier Renzo Olivo. Mahut can pull off upsets, but the real test will come for Gasquet in round 3 against Alexandr Dolgopolov, the #26 seed. Dolgopolov opens with Diego Schwartzman or Robin Haase, and he should ease into the third round. Gasquet leads the h2h with Dolgo 2-0, Dolgo has two quarterfinals and a semifinal on the ATP tour this year, but Gasquet has a title and a quarterfinal in his own right. It will be an exciting match, but I have the veteran Frenchman advancing.
Marin Cilic is the most likely opponent for Gasquet/Dolgopolov, Cilic opens with either qualifier Ryan Harrison or Dusan Lajovic. Cilic is a rather pedestrian 9-7 on the year, but hard courts are a favorable surface, and Harrison isn’t likely to pull the upset. Viktor Troicki or Leonardo Mayer will be his third round opponent. Mayer opens with a winless Sam Groth, while Troicki struggled in Davis Cup play but his 13-6 on the season and has played great for parts of this year. Troicki has won the last five meetings against Cilic, but Cilic won the first four and has been in better form.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Dominic Thiem, John Isner, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Martin Del Potro
Thiem should beat Sock, and Tsonga/Querrey to reach the quarterfinals, Novak Djokovic is the worst opponent one could have, but if he’s not 100% Thiem could pull an upset. I have Isner reaching the semis, he tends to do well on North American hard courts and a late round path of Paire, Nishikori, and Nadal/Dimitrov is a winnable one, with all of those players showing shaky form as of late.
Dolgopolov needs to upset Gasquet and Cilic to make a deep run, but it’s quite possible he could do sow with his shotmaking game. Del Potro has to face Berdych in round 2, and he’ll likely go down in defeat, but JMDP showed a strong forehand and great serve in Delray Beach, and if he continues to improve, he should be a force on tour in the months to come.
Round of 16 Djokovic d. Bautista Agut
Thiem d. Querrey
Nadal d. Dimitrov
Isner d. Nishikori
Gasquet d. Cilic
Wawrinka d. Goffin
Raonic d. Berdych
Murray d. Monfils
Djokovic is 3-0 against RBA, Thiem beat Querrey in Acapulco, Nadal is 7-0 against Dimitrov, and Isner has split meetings against Nishikori. Gasquet is 2-0 against Cilic, Wawrinka is 3-0 against Goffin, Raonic is 3-1 on hard courts against Berdych in what will be a competitive match, and Murray is 2-1 against Monfils on hard courts.
Quarters Djokovic d. Thiem
Isner d. Nadal
Wawrinka d. Gasquet
Murray d. Raonic
Djokovic has a h2h win over Thiem, Isner is 0-6 against Nadal, but with Rafa in decline, I have him earning his first win over the Spaniard. Wawrinka vs. Gasquet should be interesting with how great their backhands are, but Wawrinka should be slightly better. Murray has won his last three meetings against Raonic, who is returning from injury.
Semis Djokovic d. Isner
Murray d. Wawrinka
Djokovic has five straight wins over Wawrinka, Murray has lost his last three meetings against Wawrinka, but I have him defeating Stan due the fact he’s fitter and fresher most likely for Indian Wells tennis.
Final Djokovic d. Murray
Djokovic has had a clear edge over Murray as of late, Andy will have his chances, but this tournament is Novak’s to lose. The four time, and twice defending champion Novak should take title #5 in IW.
We hit the US for the first of the back to back hardcourt Premier events in Indian Wells and Miami.
Indian Wells debuted as a men’s event in 1976 before staging a women’s tournament a week prior in 1989. Then in 1996 it evolved into a joint event and has earned it’s status as one of the biggest events outside the four grand slams.
Former champions include Lindsay Davenport, Steffi Graf, Martina Hingis, Martina Navratilova and Monica Seles, and more recently Victoria Azarenka, Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin, Ana Ivanovic, Jelena Jankovic, Maria Sharapova, Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki. Simona Halep was victorious last year.
BNP Paribas Open
Tier: Premier Mandatory
Location: Indian Wells, USA
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $6,134,605
Date: March 09- March 20
Top eight seeds (ranking)
Serena Williams (1)
Angelique Kerber (2)
Agnieszka Radwanksa (3)
Garbine Muguruza (4)
Simona Halep (5)
Carla Suarez Navarro (6)
Belinda Bencic (8)
Petra Kvitova (9)
The big absentee is Maria Sharapova who recently was caught taking a banned substance.
First round matches to watch
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni vs Monica Puig
This match should be a good clash as it pits the power player vs the count puncher and experience vs youth.
Lucic burst on to the scene in the late 90’s and was regarded as a bright prospect capable of winning Grand Slam titles, but the Croatian decided to take time off and has only made a comeback in recent years. Puig had looked promising herself but has stalled since last year and has struggled to gain form since.
Puig owns the win in their only head to head meeting which came on the clay of Strasbourg. On a hard court it could prove to be much tighter however, and it will be interesting to see which style prevails.
Caroline Garcia vs Christina McHale
Christina McHale (Photo: Chris Levy @Tennis_Shots)
One of the American hopefuls will meet one of the most talented underachievers on the tour in what could end up being a seesaw match.
Their previous three meetings have all been fairly tight with McHale getting the better of two of them. Garcia has been in the better form overall but suffered from back problems last week in Monterrey so will he be fit enough to win here?
Winner faces Muguruza in round two, so there is plenty of interest for this one.
Julia Goerges vs Camila Giorgi
This match will be fun for completely different reasons. Both hit hard, but they are also massively inconsistent. Expect some big winners and some horrific errors in a match that really will just come down to who has the better day.
Giorgi has won both their meetings in straight sets but the Italian is very much a Jekyll and Hyde player and could easily lose this one as the favourite.
Draw Analysis
Serena’s Quarter:
For the second straight year, Serena Williams is back in Indian Wells and with all the past behind her she can set her sights on winning her first title of the season. The world number one has not played since the Australian Open so might be rusty when she faces Irina Begu or a qualifier. The other seed in the section is the talented Kristina Mladenovic who is certainly capable of catching Serena off guard. The fourth round opponent will likely be Sara Errani who has been in good form on the hardcourts recently. The Italian has the inconsistent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in her section and some dangerous unseeded players is Lesia Tsurenko and Alison Van Uytvanck.
The defending champion, Simona Halep, has had the misfortune of being placed in the same quarter as the world number one. The Romanian will begin her defence in round one against Vania King or a qualifier. Ekaterina Makarova could be a tricky round three opponent as lefties always provide a different look. Venus Williams will make her return to Indian Wells for the first time in over a decade as the tenth seed. Providing the former world number one can get through her section which includes Barbora Strycova and Andrea Petkovic, it will be a blockbuster round four against Halep and then a potential quarter final against her sister.
Radwanska’s quarter:
For the Pole this could be a big opportunity to claim another big title. The third seed might have a tough task in Dominika Cibulkova in her opening match however- the Slovenian is capable of catching fire. The ever tricky Monica Niculescu is the projected third round opponent but she could have her hands full with the in form Heather Watson who is fresh off winning the Monterrey title. Svetlana Kuznetsova is the 16th seed and another player who can catch fire out of nowhere. The Russian has the big serving Coco Vandeweghe in round two potentially. Jelena Jankovic is projected for round three.
Petra Kvitova has not enjoyed the best of starts to the season and on these slow courts could be an upset scalp in the early rounds if not playing well. But her draw is quite kind with the ever unpredictable Sabine Lisicki being the biggest hurdle in round three- providing she gets there of course. Madison Keys could be the biggest beneficiary of a fairly open section as Lucie Safarova is rusty having only just returned from injury. Yaroslava Shvedova could potentially upset the Czech in round two as well.
Muguruza’s section:
Muguruza’s season has just not gotten going thus far with the Spaniard struggling to handle the extra pressure and the niggling injuries. Caroline Garcia, if healthy, or Christina McHale may fancy their chances at grabbing a big name win if her form has not improved. Sam Stosur is projected for round three and offers something different with the amount of spin she can put on the ball. Perhaps the favourite to make it out of the section is Victoria Azarenka who is looking like returning to form this year. It could be a good battle of the former world number one’s in round three and if Muguruza can make it through, this section has plenty of enticing matches to look out for.
Belinda Bencic is one of the rising stars of the WTA and certainly a dark horse for the title this week, but the Swiss has a tough draw ahead of her. Daria Gavrilova, another rising youngster, is scheduled for round three. Roberta Vinci is the projected round four and that is never an easy task, but she also has some dangerous players to contend with. Margarita Gasparyan in round two could be an interesting one handed backhand contest. Elina Svitolina, fresh off a title win, is another player to look out for and her good form could provide problems.
Kerber’s section:
The Australian Open champion’s hangover could be over as she attempts to claim yet another big title in Indian Wells. The German could meet the improved Joanna Konta in round three which is a testing match for the second seed. Ana Ivanovic is projected for round four but she has a powerful task of toppling Karolina Pliskova in round three, though the Czech has started the season in poor form. Goerges or Giorgi could also easily take out Ivanovic.
One player who is enjoying a good season is Carla Suarez Navarro who recently won the Doha title a few weeks a go. The Spaniard is another player who could go deep here, and her draw is quite kind. Anna Schmiedlova in round three is against a player who has struggled to get going in 2016. It is probable that her biggest test might come in the form of Sloane Stephens who potentially meets Eugenie Bouchard in round two then Timea Bacsinszky in round three.
Novak Djokovic defended his BNP Paribas Open title with a 6-3 6-7 6-2 win over Roger Federer, a rematch of both the Dubai final, and the 2014 Indian Wells final. With the win, the world number one tied Federer with four career Indian Wells titles. In the final, Djokovic had the upper hand early, and very well could have closed the match out in 2 sets, from a set and a break (4-2) up, but Federer refused to go away quietly, forcing a second set tiebreak and later a third set, as Djokovic threw in a pair of double faults in the tiebreak. As expected, the slower, higher bouncing courts of Indian Wells seem to disadvantage Federer’s preferred attacking style of play, as Djokovic broke early in set 3, and though Federer would pull it back to 2-2, he lost the plot from there as Djokovic slammed the door shut for the final time.
Novak only dropped the one set to Federer all tournament, as he demolished Marcos Baghdatis, slipped past a surprisingly valiant Albert Ramos, who played the best of any opponent against Novak before the final, and gritted past John Isner with a break, and a tiebreak victory to reach the quarterfinals. Djokovic got a walkover in the quarters, as Bernard Tomic saw his great tournament derailed by a host of injuries including a back problem and wisdom teeth pain. The lack of match play didn’t disadvantage Djokovic in the slighest in the semis, as he crushed Andy Murray 6-2 6-3, the Scots serve deserted him in the match.
Federer was also with a blemish on his record before the final, sweeping Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Tomas Berdych, before edging past Milos Raonic with a break of serve in each set against the Manitoba missile. His tennis was fresh, crisp, and aggressively brutal all week, and on top of that, he played excellent defense, but Djokovic is a different caliber of player compared to any other on the tour. It was also a good tournament for Raonic as the Canadian scored his first ever win over Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals with a clutch 3 set win coming back from a set down and improving the whole match.
The successful pairing of Sock and Vasek Pospisil won their second elite caliber doubles title together (Wimbledon 2014 the other), as they beat the equally successful pairing of singles players Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli in a highly anticipated doubles final. It was an incredible week for Sock in his first tournament back from hip surgery, as he reached the round of 16 in singles with a trio of comeback wins from a set down, along with winning the doubles title.
She just wouldn’t stay down, would she? Simona Halep went through the wars with former world number one Jelena Jankovic, but she came up good in the end, coming from behind to claim her biggest title to date.
The World #3 found it difficult in the early goings, as Jankovic came out firing. The Serbian seemed to have engaged 2010 mode, as she raced to a set lead. The backhands of the Serbian were penetrating, and her movement on point as Halep struggled to play herself into the match. The stat of eight winners and 18 unforced errors told the Romanian’s first set story. Unusual stats for the world number three.
The second set was continuing in the same vein, with Jankovic breaking early at 1-1. Halep broke back as she continued to fight, but Jankovic broke again to earn the opportunity to serve for the championship. At this point, the result looked never in doubt. Jankovic was playing well, whilst Halep wasn’t hitting her best form. Despite that, the world number three’s grit and determination shone through as she broke back, and then went on to take the set 7-5. A crushing blow for Jankovic, who was the better player throughout the first two sets.
The third set proceeded to be a mess with both players struggling to hold serve. Jankovic was the first to strike, but the Serb was immediately broken back. Eventually, Halep broke to serve for the match, but like Jankovic in the second set, she failed to take her chance. Fortunately for the Romanian however, she had another opportunity to claim the title, as Jankovic served to stay in the match. The 18th seed hadn’t held serve since the beginning of the set, and she wasn’t about to here. The final game came, and then it went, as Halep’s mental strength and resolve came to the forefront once again. A break to love sealed the match and the title for Simona, as she closed it out 2-6,7-5,6-4 in one of the most dramatic finals in recent memory.
The World No.3 gave the former World No. 1 some major props in her speech at the trophy ceremony.
“First of all I want to congratulate Jelena – you were amazing,” Halep said. “Well done for a great two weeks here. You did a great job, and it was an amazing final. I’m really happy I could win today.”
“This is my biggest title and I’ll never forget it.”
Halep’s previous best was at Premier 5 level in Doha last year and Dubai this year. This was her first Premier Mandatory triumph, and this achievement was capped off by the Romanian jumping to number one in the race rankings, overtaking Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova.
Halep wasn’t at her best, but the world #3 showed tremendous fighting spirit to overcome an inspired Jankovic. Simona didn’t have the greatest start to the tournament, dropping sets in the second and third rounds to Darila Gavrilova and Vavara Lepchenko. The Romanin’s most impressive performance came against in form Karolina Pliskova, as she dispatched the rising Czech in straight sets. After coming from behind to beat Carla Suarez Navarro in the Quarter Finals, the world number three’s fortune began to look good. Serena Williams’ return to Indian Wells was unfortunately ended at the semi-final stage as the world number one was forced to withdraw with a knee injury.
Jelena Jankovic can be proud of her efforts, but unfortunately despite being the better player throughout, she couldn’t find enough to overcome Halep on this this occasion. The Serb took advantage of the bottom half of the draw falling apart, as Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Genie Bouchard’s tournaments all ended earlier than most expected. Despite the top seeds falling, the road to the final wasn’t easy for Jankovic, as she had to overcome rising stars Madison Keys, and Belinda Bencic before coming from behind to beat an in form Sabine Lisicki. The German shocked everyone by making the semi-finals of an event she had previously struggled hugely in, but her dream run eventually came to an end at the hands of Jelena. Still, she wasn’t expected to even make it this far, so Jankovic can certainly look at this tournament as a confidence booster despite what happened in the final. Her efforts are even more miraculous given she was injured prior to the tournament.
“I was limping three days before the tournament started,” Jankovic said. “I was actually in doubt if I could even play. When I came to these courts, on the first day I hadn’t hit a ball for 10 days. I was hitting, but I was standing. I was not moving.” She added, “But I was hitting the ball so great without any practice. I had a good feeling. I felt so great. I was just so happy to be out there again. But I didn’t think I would make the finals after not preparing.”
The doubles was won by Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza. The top seeds overcame second seeded Russian pair, Ekaterina Makarova and Elena Vesnina 6-3,6-4.
Djokovic Wins First Title of 2014 in Indian Wells Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
Novak Djokovic captured his first title of the season, and his third Indian Wells title 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) over Roger Federer. Federer had the serve, volley and forehand working in set one, as he was dominating Djokovic out of the gate. But the Serbian would fight back, breaking for 5-3 and holding his serve to force a third set.
In that third set, Djokovic would break early and hold all the way to a 5-3 lead, as he was passing Federer on his volley attempts much better and responding to the serve and volley better than in the first set.
Federer broke back for 5 all to the surprise of many, but didn’t put up much resistance in the tiebreak and Djokovic pulled through.
Novak’s path to the final was a straight set victory over Victor Hanescu, a 3 set win over Alejandro Gonzalez, a 3 set victory over Marin Cilic, a straight set victory over Julian Benneteau and a 3 set victory over John Isner in the semifinals.
Djokovic played some poor sets this week and was tested though never in real trouble, and he was the most dominant player of the tournament.
Federer stretched his win streak to 11 matches before it was snapped in the final. He beat Paul-Henri Mathieu and Dmitry Tursunov in competitive straight set matches, then beat Tommy Haas 4 and 4, Kevin Anderson also in straights and surprise semifinalist Alex Dolgopolov in a straight set blowout.
Federer looked strong this week and continues his great form.
Dolgopolov notably beat Rafael Nadal in the third round.
The Bryans repeated as doubles champions in Indian Wells, defeating Alexander Peya/Bruno Soares in that final, as two doubles specialists’ teams met in the final of a doubles tournament that had many top singles players participating.
The first master’s event of the year is here with the dual men’s and women’s event in Indian Wells, California. All the top players plan to participate and the field is as strong as it can get.
ATP Indian Wells
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Indian Wells, California
March 7-March 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 4,330,625
Indian Wells stayed in the news during the winter and spring because of a debate over a proposed prize money increase, which was eventually approved by the ATP for a single year.
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Roger Federer
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Rafael Nadal
6: Tomas Berdych
7: Juan Martin Del Potro
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
The top 8 seeds are the ATP rankings top 8, and all of the seeds are part of the ATP rankings top 32. All 32 seeds get 1stround byes.
First round matchups to watch:
Pablo Andujar vs. (wc) Steve Johnson
Andujar is coming off playing the golden swing clay events and is an abysmal 2-7 on the year. That being said, he is ranked 80+ spots ahead of Johnson in the rankings and thus, regardless of his form, a victory here would be a success for the rising American with a career high ranking just outside the top 130. Johnson made the quarters in San Jose and qualified in Australia but has been mostly average this year and he could use a good run to jump start his year. Look for him to get the upset.
Ryan Harrison vs. Go Soeda
Speaking of slumping players, we have Ryan Harrison, still ranked in the top 100, but having lost 3 straight matches to 3 very average players. He has a similar opponent this time, the steady but bland Soeda who has also only won 1 match in his last 4 tries. These 2 met once last year and Harrison won, but Harrison will be dealing with home pressure at a big event and is playing very poorly right now. Soeda could continue Harrison’s downturn.
Viktor Troicki vs David Goffin
This match will be a rematch of their 5 set Davis Cup rubber battle last month on clay. Troicki won it, but has struggled since, while Goffin is also having an abysmal year. This match could go either way and both these guys badly need a win to get some confidence.
Jarkko Nieminen vs Igor Sijsling
The veteran Fin met the up and coming Dutchman twice last year and they split victories. They both have solid games and Sijsling seems to be at the cusp of a breakthrough and hopefully fully recovered from shoulder issues. Nieminen last played indoors in Montpellier and will be adjusting, but also will be well rested, while Sijsling had an early retirement in Delray. This match is a tossup with an edge towards sizzling Igor.
(Q) Daniel Brands vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Brands is back in the top 75 and has had a great year thus far, most recently making the quarters as a qualifier in Dubai he will try to continue his success as a qualifier against Baghdatis who has been a bit up and down and may be vulnerable to an upset.
Top Half:
The dominant Novak Djokovic will face Fabio Fognini or Aljaz Bedene and then could face Grigor Dimitrov in the 3rd round if Dimitrov can beat Matt Ebden or Andrey Kuznetsov. In the round of 16 he could draw a seemingly struggling Sam Querrey, Jack Sock, qualifier Ivo Karlovic, Marinko Matosevic (who opens with Tommy Robredo) or perhaps least likely of all a struggling Juan Monaco, who is still seeded 14th. Novak should cruise to the quarters.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will play Robin Haase or James Blake and then could perhaps face Mardy Fish, who hasn’t played since the US Open and will finally be making his comeback to the tour at Indian Wells. Fish actually gets an opening round bye and will face Benjamin Becker or Bobby Reynolds to open. His form is precarious for sure, though. Tsonga could get Milos Raonic next if Raonic can beat Michael Llodra or Daniel Munoz De La Nava (who qualified after a strong showing in Delray), and then Marin Cilic, or the Albert Ramos/Horacio Zeballos winner.
Andy Murray, who has always struggled at Indian Wells and took extra time off to get rested for this event and Miami afterwards will play Evgeny Donskoy or Tatsuma Ito and then could face Martin Klizan or Tim Smyczek if Smyczek can beat Yen-Hsun Lu. His first real test should be against Kei Nishikori in round 4 if Kei can beat either qualifier Dmitry Tursunov or qualifier Phillip Petzschener and then either a early year rematch with Alex Dogopolov or Santiago Giraldo/Carlos Berlocq. Dolgo is struggling and may not make it that far.
Juan Martin Del Potro, the Dubai semifinalist, will play Nikolay Davydenko or Paul Henri Mathieu before getting a chance to revenge his upset loss in Australia to Jeremy Chardy (if Chardy can get past the Alejandro Falla/Bjorn Phau winner). Del Potro could meet Tommy Haas or Nicolas Almagro if Almagro can best Lukas Lacko/Daniel Gimeno Traver and Haas beats the Johnson/Andujar winner.
Bottom Half:
An off form Roger Federer could run into early trouble in the 3rd round, where after beating a dangerous-in-his-own-right Denis Istomin or qualifier Vasek Pospisil he could meet Julian Benneteau (who just beat him in Rotterdam). Benneteau will need to beat Ivan Dodig or Guido Pella to advance that far, though.
Assuming Fed gets through that, he could get another chance to whip up on his countryman Stan Wawrinka if Wawrinka bests Roberto Bautista-Agut/Wayne Odesnik then likely a slumping John Isner. Isner can’t seem to beat anyone of quality these days. Big John will face the Lukas Rosol/Lleyton Hewitt winner in round 2.
An ice cold Janko Tipsarevic will play Delray finalist and qualifier Ernests Gulbis or Memphis finalist Feliciano Lopez. The winner would face the Brands/Baghdatis winner or Andreas Seppi. This is all setting up of course for Rafael Nadal, in his first hard court tournament back (excluding the exhibition he played in New York). Nadal will play the Soeda/Harrison winner and then Leo Mayer/Xaiver Malisse or Mikhail Youzhny in what is actually a smooth start for the Spaniard.
David Ferrer will face Kevin Anderson or Victor Hanescu. Anderson could possibly upset him but it isn’t likely. The winner will face the Sijsling/Nieminen winner or Fernando Verdasco, who has been in iffy form himself. Gilles Simon will play Gilles Muller or Paolo Lorenzi and then Lukasz Kubot/Benoit Paire or Phillip Kohlschreiber, who has not played a match since the Davis Cup ties.
Richard Gasquet gets Thomaz Bellucci or Bernard Tomic, both in up and down form, but could still be a serious test for Gasquet. The winner likely faces Jerzy Janowicz, if Jano can beat Marcel Granollers/David Nalbandian.
Dubai finalist Tomas Berdych will face qualifier Mischa Zverev or a struggling Jurgen Melzer before getting an even easier draw with his 3rdround opponent, being one the slumping trio of Troicki/Goffin or Florian Mayer.
Dark Horses: Marinko Matosevic, Gilles Simon, Daniel Brands
Matosevic is a hot and cold player who can have spots of good tennis and then fall off the radar. He will be hoping to hit a hot spot in Indian Wells and he has the draw to do it with clay courters Robredo and Monaco, neither of whom are playing very well, and a struggling Querrey who he just beat in Memphis or the still inexperienced Sock. R16 is reasonable for him.
Simon is 11-5 on the year and has actually been playing well. He should benefit from the slow courts at Indian Wells given his style as a pusher and if he can beat Muller, Paire/Kohlschreiber/Kubot and then a possibly miffed Ferrer or even Nieminen/Sijsling he would be well on his way, again benefiting from facing struggling or surface adjusting players. I could see him in the quarters.
Brands plays well on hard courts and is bombing the ball right now. Baghdatis is an inconsistent player and Seppi is just so-so on hard courts. Tipsarevic can’t seem to win a match right now. He may not even survive Gulbis if Gulbis isn’t too tired from his whirlwind match play. Still, a tired Gulbis sets up well for Brands, and Lopez can be inconsistent too. I could see Brandswagon running into Nadal.
Predictions:
R16
Djokovic d. Matosevic
Tsonga d. Raonic
Murray d. Nishikori
Del Potro d. Haas
Berdych d. Gasquet
Simon d. Ferrer
Nadal d. Brands
Federer d. Wawrinka
Djokovic should roll, Tsonga will have a miniscule edge over Raonic, Murray should be tested by Nishikori and that match may go the distance. Del Potro has too much for Haas, Berdy vs Reeshy should be close, Simon should upset Ferrer, Nadal should survive Brands and Federer should assail Stan again.
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Tsonga
Murray d. Del Potro
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Nadal
Djoker is unstoppable right now. Del Potro could again challenge Murray, but I’ll give the edge to AM. Berdy should beat Simon again and Federer should win over a still adjusting Nadal in their first meeting before the semifinals of a tournament since 2004.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Murray
Berdych d. Federer
Djokovic is yet again unstoppable, as Murray couldn’t beat him in Melbourne, either. Berdych just beat Federer in Dubai and has every reason to do so again. He showed some fortitude in that match and I trust him enough to beat a lacking Federer.
Final:
Djokovic d. Berdych
A Dubai rematch. The result should be the same. Novak is dominating the game right now.
