We have reached the Big Apple for the final grand slam of the year and there is not only the US Open to fight for, but also the world number one ranking.
128 will enter Flushing Meadows, but only one woman will be crowned champion at the end of the fortnight. Here is a rundown of the draw for the 2017 US Open.
Top Quarter
Karolina Pliskova, 2017 US Open
World number one Karolina Pliskova has finals points to defend here and it is likely she will have to make that stage again if she is to keep the top spot. The Czech has a good draw ahead of her though with the first seeded player being Shuai Zhang. Kristina Mladenovic is projected for the fourth round, but the Frenchwoman’s lack of form and fitness issues may lead to another early exit. Look for Barbora Strycova to take advantage and possibly meet her compatriot in the round of 16.
The bottom half of this quarter seems more stacked and closely contested than the top half. Svetlana Kuznetsova is the highest seed and should be good enough for the third round at least. From there, it could get interesting with Anett Kontaveit, Lucie Safarova or Cici Bellis waiting in the wings. Agnieszka Radwanska is yet to break her Grand Slam curse, and if she is to do so here she will do it as the tenth seed. Coco Vandeweghe is her biggest test before a potential fourth round against Kuznetsova.
Second Quarter
Madison Keys, 2017 US Open
Elina Svitolina is one of the tournament favourites for the US Open as she looks to claim her first Grand Slam title. The Ukrainian has a tough opener against Katerina Siniakova, but the third round clash with the in form Daria Gavrilova could be her toughest first week opponent. Round four is projected to be Madison Keys, but she has a tough first round against Elise Mertens to worry about first. Elena Vesnina is the first seeded opponent for the American.
Angelique Kerber is the defending champion here, which is hard to believe given how underwhelming she has been in 2017. The German faces big hitting youngster Naomi Osaka in one of the picks of the opening round matches. Lesia Tsurenko is the first seeded opponent she will face, but things get really interesting in round four as Kerber could face French Open winner Jelena Ostapenko. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has also landed in this section alongside dangerous unseeded player Daria Kasatkina.
Third Quarter Garbine Muguruza has been in good form since Wimbledon and is in many people’s mind the favourite to go the distance in New York. The Spaniard has a good draw to the second week with Magdalena Rybarikova being the toughest opponent before round four. Petra Kvitova is projected to face Muguruza at this point, but her inconsistency could open the door for Caroline Garcia to make the second week of a third straight slam.
The US Open might be Caroline Wozniacki’s best shot at winning a maiden Grand Slam crown, and with the openness of the draw, she could very well go all the way. The Dane has some dangerous players in her section such as Ekaterina Makarova and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. Venus Williams has an outside shot of claiming the number one ranking if results go her way, and given her form this year you can not rule out the elder Williams sister prevailing. Venus plays Kiki Bertens in round three, her toughest opponent before the potential Wozniacki clash.
Bottom Quarter
The bottom quarter of this draw features the headline match of the opening round as Maria Sharapova faces second seed Simona Halep. It is not an ideal draw for either player, but it is the pick of the round one matches for the fans. Outside of the opening round, the draw looks good for the winner. Sevastova is the trickiest player in the section and is projected for the fourth round.
Johanna Konta has not had the best preparation for the US Open, but the Brit is still among the outside favourites for the title. Konta’s toughest match in the first week comes in the form of Germany’s Julia Goerges, a big hitter who has resurged somewhat this season. Dominika Cibulkova will be hoping for a good grand slam run at Flushing Meadows, but she has some tough matches including Sloane Stephens in round two and Ana Konjuh in round three.
For the most part I believe the seeds will hold up. There are many players capable of upsets, but they are so inconsistent, it is hard to back them. The only non top eight seed I have predicted to make the quarter finals is Venus, but that could easily be wrong too.
These two matches can go either way but I have favoured the fourth and third seeds to get the job done. Pliskova will feel the pressure of keeping her ranking whilst Muguruza has a good record against Halep.
Final:
Muguruza def. Svitolina
I have predicted this final before at the French Open and somehow I have done it again. The draw can go either way, but Muguruza’s form should carry her far and the Spaniard seems to step up in the latter stages. That is why I have gone for her to win the final and take the crown. She seems much better at handling pressure after winning Wimbledon, and she can do well here despite her poor record.
Kaia Kanepi, 2017 US Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
After Qualifying, Kaia Kanepi Could be Dangerous at US Open Steve Fogleman, Tennis Atlantic
Kaia Kanepi is lurking to bust your bracket. After dispatching Hsieh Su-wei, the #1 qualifying seed in New York last Friday in straight sets, Kanepi is ready for a run. Tennis Atlantic spoke with Kanepi after the 6-2, 6-4 qualifying final on Friday. She’d previously beaten Nina Stojanović 6-2, 6-2 on Tuesday and went three sets with Louisa Chirico, 5-7, 7-5, 6-2 on Thursday.
“It’s a really amazing feeling, really. I have never done it at the US Open, made it through qualification, so it’s great,” she said. “It suits my game really well,” Kanepi said of the courts and conditions in New York. “I get a lot of support here and the Estonians love New York like I do,” she added.
Despite numerous injuries throughout her career and even a case of mononucleosis, her four tour titles and five Grand Slam quarterfinals, including the 2010 US Open, render her a serious threat. She won two tournaments this summer in Essen, Germany and Parnu, Estonia. Though those titles might not put the fear of god in her opponents, her resolve through qualifying at 11368–the zip code for the US Open–should.
She draws Francesca Schiavone on Tuesday in Round 1. Schiavone at #77 and Kanepi at #418 may look like a mismatch on paper but it’s not that simple. Though the two haven’t played in 5 years, the Estonian took the last two, with the last match a 6-3, 6-0 runaway by Kanepi in 2012. The winner of Tuesday’s first round match gets Lesia Tsurenko or Yanina Wickmayer. A Round 3 matchup could be against 6 seed Angelique Kerber, if either Kanepi or Kerber make it that far. And they’ve split their four tour head-to-heads.
You heard it here first. Kanepi could spell big trouble in this part of the draw.
In the City of Dreams, a Few More Realized at US Open Qualifying Steve Fogleman, Tennis Atlantic
It was another glorious day in a vainglorious city. I like the way that sounds, but it’s not correct because this part of New York never cared much for keeping up appearances, unless you count all of the auto body shops that want to get those ugly dents out of your ride. Yes, all of the glory in New York was solidly in Queens yesterday, as 32 players punched their ticket to the biggest dance of all at the US Open.
For Viktoria Kuzmova, it was fitting that her first grand slam main draw should be in New York. A 2016 US Open Junior Finalist, Kuzmova showed the poise on these courts that took her so far in juniors, and the fact that they’re playing on outer courts, and not Arthur Ashe Stadium, made it all so familiar.
She beat Francoise Abanda yesterday, who qualified for the main draw last year. “I feel amazing,” Kuzmova said after the match. “I played this year for the first time in qualifying at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and I didn’t pass, but now I made it to the main draw so I’m really happy..I’m really excited it happened here,” she said. She meets Venus Williams in Round 1. Welcome to the big leagues.
For French journeyman Vincent Millot, who’s played in every grand slam main draw except New York, it was equally gratifying. The 31-year-old let out a primal scream after the win against Simone Bolelli. “On the court, at the end, I was so tense because I was thinking about this thing,” he said. “Actually, since I’m young, this is my favorite one, and all these years, I was so tense when I was playing here. And qualifying for me this year, so good,” he added with a smile as you watched the tension release from his body and mind. Millot can now check this off of the bucket list and get on to beating Santiage Giraldo in round 1.
Maximilian Marterer, who impressed me in his qualifying run to Cincinnati, backed that up with his maiden trip to a grand slam main draw by taking out top seed Leo Mayer in a 6-4, 7-5 affair. Mayer was disgusted and smacked his racket after the handshake. Marterer, in typical German understatement style, didn’t whoop it up like Millot or the others. He casually told me after the match, “yeah, I’m really happy with my travel here to the United States. It’s the first time for me playing grand slam main draw. I’m feeling incredible right now,” he said, without much emotion on his face. “I already lost twice against (Mayer) before, so I’m happy I did it better,” he said. He was content. Contentment buys him an opener against Donald Young. For his part, Mayer made it through as a lucky loser and faces Gasquet.
Tereza Martincova admitted that she got a little nervous when she saw compatriot Andrea Hlavackova watching her qualifying final. “It’s so good when she was here. I started to be a little nervous. We are friends but it’s perfect when you have some friends and they want to support you. It’s a big help for me,” she said. She had some fans in her corner and not surprisingly, she’s a big fan of the US Open. “Of course, because it’s amazing here,” she said. “They’re so many fans and it’s great to play here. I think it’s the best grand slam here,” she added. Martincova makes her grand slam main draw debut next week against Caroline Garcia after knocking out Georgia Brescia 7-5, 6-4 on Court 16. Interestingly, Court 16 was the only court yesterday where no player had ever been to a major main draw. That was bound to change, and Sofya Zhuk also reached her career pinnacle on Court 16 to advance.
I felt like the Publisher’s Clearinghouse Prize Patrol yesterday as I walked around the outer courts and reminded the players that they had just won qualifying tennis’ greatest prize. ‘You just won $50,000 and the memory of lifetime! What are you going to do now?’ A: Um, practice even harder?
I noticed this morning that the Connecticut Open drew 45,688 fans through eight days of qualifying and main draw matches with some of the biggest names in women’s tennis. The US Open qualifying tournament, which offers free admission, drew 41,612. It looks like the secret is out. As much as I’d hate to see it, the US Open might want to consider charging for it to tip the balance in favor of Connecticut. New Haven is a great tournament, but unfortunately it’s an afterthought for New York and Connecticut tennis fans as the Open sucks up all of the oxygen in the region. With the level of drama in New York on Friday, it might still be a challenge for the WTA tournament 72 miles up I-95.
Vera Zvonareva Continues Winning Ways at US Open, This Time in Qualifying Steve Fogleman in New York
Vera Zvonareva plays good tennis in New York. The 2010 US Open finalist tried out a new gig today as a qualifier at Flushing Meadows. After a hiatus from professional competition and the off-court distractions of having a real life (read ‘spouse and child’), Zvonareva made up for lost time in beating Han Xinyun 7-6 (4), 6-1 in first round qualifying action.
There were WAY more people there than the photo may suggest
After the match, Zvonareva, 32, said she wasn’t sure her experience made all the difference today against Han, the left-hander with a world #125 singles ranking, but added that “it was difficult to tell at the moment. We were fighting there in tough conditions. Humid, hot. It was difficult but I think I got lucky on a couple of points,” she told me. “Of course, experience helps,” she said. “I hoped she gets better in the second set. I thought she was having some problems already.”
As far as getting back into the game, there’s no place like dipping your toe in the water than in the lake of fire that is a grand slam, especially if you’re the
“Yeah,” she said. “I’m looking forward, you know, I’m enjoying my time back on the court. I’ve been out of competition for quite a long time so it’s a pleasure to be back and playing here at the US Open.”
Zvonareva continues her comeback tour on Thursday against 22-year-old Jamie Loeb, currently ranked #156. Loeb, from Bronxville, New York, will be an overwhelming crowd favorite. Zvonareva will likely need to rely on her experience to advance.
Nadal Dominates All Comers in New York for Second Slam of 2013
Rafael Nadal dropped just two sets in New York the entire tournament. One of those sets was in the final against Novak Djokovic, a match he won 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1. The title is the 13th slam for the Spaniard, and his second US Open title.
Nadal simply dominated with his forehand and his drop shots against Djokovic in the final. Novak raised his level at times and was able to match him, but eventually he just couldn’t keep up the pace as Nadal was getting to everything. Nadal was clutch, saving most of the break points he faced and playing better defense as Novak pressed aggressively but came up empty in all but the second set.
Nadal also took care of Phillip Kohlschreiber in 4 sets as the German was able to match a malaised Nadal for a set before losing the plot, then destroyed a tired Tommy Robredo in straights. He followed that with a victory over a well performing Richard Gasquet, who was able to get past David Ferrer in the quarters to reach the semis, avoiding losing a 2 sets to 0 lead.
Novak had a slightly rougher path to the finals. He got week 2 started by destroying Marcel Granollers, and he had control of his quarterfinal match against Mikhail Youzhny, who upset Lleyton Hewitt to get to that point. Novak beat Youzhny in 4, and then needed 5 sets in a reprisal of his Australian Open match against Stanislas Wawrinka. Wawrinka shockingly routined Andy Murray, taking out the defending champion in straight sets He gave Djokovic a good match once again, but not quite as good, as he got gimped up and couldn’t maintain his early level.
The final came down to the best two all-around players right now, and Nadal basically secured the year end number 1. With no points left to defend the rest of the year, he remains undefeated on hard courts. He won both the summer masters and the US Open to win the US Open Series in a sweep. When his Roland Garros title is included along with the fact that he has come back from the knee injuries so strongly, he is a lock for player of the year without a doubt.
In the doubles, the Bryans were stopped from winning the Golden Slam by Radek Stepanek and Leander Paes, who won the doubles title beating Alex Peya and Bruno Soares in the final.
This Girl Is On Fire: Victoria Duval Upsets Former @USOpen Champ Stosur, Becomes Instant Household Name
Victoria Duval shocked the world tonight, and my blog stats proved it. World #296 won a gutsy 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 battle against former US Open Champion and World #11 Sam Stosur in the first round of the US Open. I will try not to fill this post with just enough words to make it economically viable on the search engines.
I will just say: That. Was. Awesome. Vicky!
Duval faces the very beatable Daniela Hantuchova in the 2nd round. She follows in the footsteps of Madison Keys and Melanie Oudin as an upstart player who begins household recognition at the US Open. Duval is so relaxed that my expectations have naturally run high. I’m glad it will have no effect on her.
As you remember, Duval qualified by winning three straight matches in New York. Here’s a video of her first qualifying win last week.
In addition, today’s victories by two of this blogs All Time Favorites, Denis Kudla and Alison Riske, make Day 2 of the US Open one I’ll never forget!
Steen Kirby’s 2013 US Open Week 1 Men’s Preview, Predictions
US Open Official Site
Andy Murray seeks to win his second straight slam and defend his US Open title while the likes of a red-hot Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and others look to lay claim to the title. It is time for the US Open in New York, 2013 edition.
US Open
Grand Slam
New York, NY, USA
August 26-September 8, 2013
Top 8 Seeds
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Rafael Nadal
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Tomas Berdych
6: Juan Martin Del Potro
7: Roger Federer
8: Richard Gasquet
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (knee), Marin Cilic (suspension) and Gilles Simon (general injury) are the only top 20 players missing. Mardy Fish (heat stroke) and Viktor Troicki (suspension) are also out.
1st round matchups to watch:
David Goffin vs. Alex Dolgopolov
Goffin has recovered this summer after a terrible half season. He qualified in Montreal, Cincy and Winston-Salem, along with winning main draw matches in DC, Cincy and Winston-Salem. Dolgo has had an atrocious year but managed to make the semis in Winston-Salem and he remains as inconsistent as ever. They met once at a clay challenger in 2010 and Dolgo won, but I think Goffin will even the score this time and take it, perhaps in 5 sets.
Lleyton Hewitt vs. Brian Baker
The first meeting between the two veterans. Hewitt hasn’t played since DC, perhaps resting his body, while Baker is playing just his 3rd tournament back from the knee injury. He has gone 2-2 overall in those events. Baker certainly has the ability to pull off this upset, but if Hewitt is healthy and in-form he should take this interesting clash.
James Blake vs. (Q)Ivo Karlovic
Blake has lost in the 2nd round of his last 2 events (Winston-Salem and Cincy) and remains capable of playing great aggressive tennis, but that is rare from him these days. Karlovic, meanwhile, had to qualify but did so rather easily and his serve seems to be clicking quite well. Ivo is as always living on the edge in terms of holding his serve and not getting broken, but he has shown good form and Blake doesn’t deal well with big servers. This makes Ivo a slight favorite, probably in 4 sets. The H2H is 6-3 in favor of Karlovic, though they haven’t played since 2011 and Karlovic has a 4-2 H2H on hard courts.
Jiri Vesely vs. Denis Kudla
A battle of young talents. Vesely, who normally plies his trade in Europe, is in New York to take on the American Kudla, who with high expectations has thus far not had a breakthrough result this summer. Both players seem to have a good future ahead, but Vesely has been better this year and I make him a slight favorite in 4 or 5 sets.
(4)David Ferrer vs. (Q)Nick Kyrgios
Ferrer is an uncharacteristically abysmal 1-2 this summer and has to defend semifinal points here, while the qualifier Kyrgios worked his way to the main draw and is quite talented. Many people give the Aussie a good chance at the win. I still think it is unlikely, but he should at least trouble Ferrer, who seems to play better on the Flushing Meadows surface compared to other summer hard court surfaces.
(19)Tommy Robredo vs. Marinko Matosevic
Robredo has been consistent for a veteran but does much better on clay, though he has a 17-11 record at the US Open and has reached the 4th round consistently. Matosevic has recovered from a poor start to his year and has had a solid summer, making the quarters in DC, and qualifying and making the quarters in Montreal. This match is still a toss-up to me, but if the court plays fast, Matosevic has an upset chance.
(11)Kei Nishikori vs. (Q)Dan Evans
My upset special of the first round. Nishikori has played very poorly this summer and seems to struggle on US outdoor hard courts, especially if it is hot and this is a day match. Evans qualified easily enough and has torn up the summer hard court challenger circuit, playing the best tennis of his career. Certainly his peak level is not Nishikori’s peak level, but if Nishikori remains out of sorts, and Evans plays his best tennis, the Brit they call “Evo” could very well pull off the upset.
(27)Fernando Verdasco vs. Ivan Dodig
Verdasco reached the quarters of Winston-Salem in his only pre US Open tune-up, while Dodig has been good this summer overall and has the type of game that can do damage. Verdasco remains talented but unpredictable, and this match could go either way. They met once on clay last year and Verdasco won. I still think he is the favorite to expand the H2H to 2-0.
Djokovic’s Quarter:
Novak opens with Winston-Salem quarterfinalist Ricardas Berankis, who is talented but before Winston-Salem had been playing miserable tennis. Novak should advance easily enough and face Benjamin Becker or Lukas Rosol in Round 2. Rosol cannot for the life of him seem to win a match, so it should be Becker. In Round 3 it should be Jarkko Nieminen or Grigor Dimitrov for Novak. Nieminen gets a struggling Lukasz Kubot in Round 1, while Dimitrov faces Joao Sousa. Dimitrov, of course, beat Djokovic back in Madrid on clay, but he has not played that well this summer and Novak should be good to reach the Round of 16.
In the Round of 16, possible opponents for Djokovic are Fabio Fognini, who opens with Rajeev Ram and then Marcel Granollers/Jurgen Zopp, and Benoit Paire, who plays Alex Bogomolov and the Tim Smyczek/James Duckworth winner. Paire is mercurial, Fognini has had a great year but on hard courts is sort of iffy, meaning Duckworth or Smyczek have at least an outside chance at the 4th round.
The dangerous former champion Juan Martin Del Potro faces Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Round 1, before seeing the Hewitt/Baker winner and probably a rejuvenated Jurgen Melzer in Round 3. Melzer, the Winston-Salem champion, just needs to beat a struggling Evgeny Donskoy and a struggling Igor Sijsling or qualifier Peter Gojowcyzk. In Round 4, I expect Del Potro vs Tommy Haas. The German needs to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu, Rendy Lu or Dani Gimeno-Traver, and one of Goffin/Dolgopolov, Mikhail Youzhny/Nicolas Mahut.
Murray’s Quarter:
The defending champ gets an easy start with Michael Llodra before facing Victor Hanescu/Leo Mayer and most likely Juan Monaco in Round 3, if Pico beats Florian Mayer and Donald Young/Martin Klizan. Klizan made noise here last year but has been quite bad this year. Young has had some good US Open showings, but is not expected to do that well. Murray was not great in either of his tune-up events, but he wasn’t last year either. I wouldn’t read too much into that.
In Round 4, Murray should continue to have a rather easy road as his most likely opponent is Andreas Seppi, if Seppi beats the seemingly hopeless Xaiver Malisse, Lukas Lacko/Somdev Devvarman and one of Denis Istomin/Nicolas Almagro, Steve Johnson/Tobias Kamke. Almagro has been poor this summer. Johnson will also have an outside shot with Istomin able to do damage as well.
Tomas Berdych, who has semifinal points to defend, will face Paolo Lorenzi and then the Vesely/Kudla winner and probably Julian Benneteau in Round 3, if Benny beats Michal Przysiezny and Sergiy Stakhovsky/Jeremy Chardy. All of Berdych’s possible Round 3 opponents have been out of form and I don’t think he can complain about his early draw.
In Round 4 his highest seeded opponent would be Stan Wawrinka. Stan is struggling. He opens with Radek Stepanek and then a difficult test against Karlovic/Blake. Kevin Anderson plays Daniel Brands and Marcos Baghdatis/Go Soeda to reach Round 3, and I have Anderson getting out of that section to face Berdych yet again, as they always seem to find each other in these draws.
Ferrer’s Quarter:
Assuming Ferrer beats Kyrgios, he gets Roberto Bautista-Agut or Thomaz Bellucci in a losable match he should still win. The trouble comes in Round 3, though, with Ernests Gulbis needing wins against Andreas Haider-Maurer and Mikhail Kukushkin/Andrej Martin to get there. Ferrer won their only match 6 years ago, but Gulbis is much improved now and purely off of form I have the Latvian getting through.
The 4th round opponent from that section should be Jerzy Janowicz, if Jerzy beats qualifier Maximo Gonzalez, Jack Sock/Philip Petzschener and probably Janko Tipsarevic. Even though he is still in terrible form, the Serb only has to beat the sort of inactive clay courter Pablo Cuevas and Dudi Sela/Andrey Kuznetsov, both of whom are mainly challenger players. Janowicz has a very easy draw, especially with Sock struggling.
Richard Gasquet, who has not been great this summer, faces Michael Russell, who is still looking for his first career US Open main draw win, and then one of qualifiers Stephane Robert and Albano Olivetti in what should be an all French Round 2 match. Gasquet should meet the tricky Dmitry Tursunov in Round 3, as the Russian needs wins over Aljaz Bedene and Jan-Lennard Struff/Guillaume Rufin to advance. Tursunov could upset Gasquet, but I have the top Frenchman in the draw through to Round 4.
Milos Raonic, who is simply unpredictable these days, gets qualifier Thomas Fabbiano in Round 1 followed by Pablo Andujar/Thiemo De Bakker and probably Feliciano Lopez in Round 3, assuming Lopez beats Florent Serra and Bradley Klahn/Kenny De Schepper. If Raonic plays anywhere near his Montreal level, he should be good for at least Round 4.
Nadal’s Quarter:
Montreal and Cincy champ Rafa Nadal did not play here last year and thus has no points to defend. He will play Ryan Harrison, who he beat in straights at Indian Wells this year in their only meeting. Harrison always gets sympathy for his difficult grand slam draws. Nadal should get another young talent to dispatch in Round 2, as Vasek Pospisil just needs to beat qualifier Rogerio Dutra Silva. In Round 3, it should be Nadal vs Verdasco/Dodig, unless Rhyne Williams/Nikolay Davydenko have something to say about that. Williams has struggled this summer and Davydenko is sort of unpickable. Of the Big 3, Rafa has on paper the toughest first 3 rounds, but I still think he will win them all and not drop a set.
John Isner could get a Cincy final rematch against Nadal, assuming he can beat Filippo Volandri in a match between one of the best servers in tennis and one of the worst. John would then see Gael Monfils or Adrian Ungur, though Monfils retired from the Winston-Salem final and appears injured with a stomach muscle, meaning a lucky loser would take his place if he withdraws. That would make things even easier for Isner. In Round 3, it could be an Isner/Kohlschreiber US Open 2012 rematch. Kohli has not been at the form level that allowed him to beat the American in that late night clash though, and he opens with USTA Wild Card Colin Altamirano, a 17 year old junior who mainly plays futures. After that match, Kohli should play Edouard Roger-Vasselin, with ERV facing Albert Montanes in the first round.
Roger Federer went from being seeded first last year to seventh this year. He plays Grega Zemlja in Round 1 and Santiago Giraldo/Carlos Berlocq in Round 2. Maybe even Sam Querrey. Sam Querrey needs an upset, needing wins over Guido Pella and Adrian Mannarino/Horacio Zeballos to get there. Federer doesn’t have a uber-hard draw in the first three matches but a Nadal quarterfinal looms, assuming he can beat one of a section consisting of Robredo/Matosevic/Frank Dancevic/Robin Haase/Albert Ramos/Bernard Tomic/Nishikori/Evans. This section is quite weak but Robredo/Matosevic are probably co-favorites to advance, with Haase and Evans having outside chances and, of course, Nishikori. If he can find his game, he could always get through. Tomic is talented but has no confidence right now.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter): Jurgen Melzer, Ivo Karlovic, Dmitry Tursunov and Marinko Matosevic
I didn’t do this for the last couple of slams as there weren’t really as many certifiable dark horses. In this case, Melzer with his rejuvenated game could, with a tremendous run, make the quarters, needing to beat the fragile Del Potro and Haas/Youzhny to do it.
Karlovic, with his serve, is always a dark horse when healthy. I already have him in Round 3, but if he can score wins over Anderson and Berdych he could be in the quarters against Murray. That would be another match he would have an incredibly unlikely shot at winning, but a shot none the less.
Tursunov has been under the radar and could beat Gasquet and Raonic/Lopez before meeting Janowicz/Gulbis/Ferrer in the quarters. Gulbis and Raonic are dark horses as well, but given a lot of people have Gulbis as the favorite in his section, I didn’t give him the tag this time. Matosevic has a weak section with Robredo. His opening match is his toughest match on paper. The Aussie has been much improved and has played great tennis this summer. If he beats Robredo, after Dancevic/Haase he should face Evans/Nishikori and then probably Federer. The Swissman is not guaranteed anymore, so who knows? Matosevic has a low percentage chance of reaching the quarters.
Week 1 Predictions (4th round matchups)
Djokovic d. Fognini
Del Potro d. Haas
Murray d. Seppi
Berdych d. Anderson
Raonic d. Gasquet
Gulbis d. Janowicz
Federer d. Matosevic
Nadal d. Isner
Djokovic, Murray, Nadal and Federer shouldn’t have much trouble, all winning in straights. Del Potro should overpower Haas given the 5-0 H2H (all on hard courts), and the Argentine’s two wins over the German this year. Berdych has beaten Anderson 5 times this year and is 9-0 overall, as the South African just can’t seem to beat him. Raonic beat Gasquet in their only meeting last year and should do so again. Gulbis-Janowicz is a toss-up to me, and the H2H is 2 each, Gulbis winning their only hard court meeting last year.
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Del Potro
Murray d. Berdych
Raonic d. Gulbis
Nadal d. Federer
Del Potro could very well beat Novak, as he did so once this year at Indian Wells. But the overall H2H is 9-3 in favor of the Serb, and the Serb won a tough Wimbledon match this year as well as a win in Dubai over JMDP. Del Potro will need to play peak tennis to win.
Murray-Berdych is also a tough match to pick, as Berdych has a 6-4 H2H edge and just beat the Scot in Cincy rather easily (2-0 overall this year). Murray beat him in four sets at the Open last year, though. Maybe it is just because I’m a fan, but I think he will do so again. The US Open seems to suit Murray very well and Berdych tends to struggle mentally in slam matches.
Raonic is 4-0 against Gulbis career, beating him twice this year. The last one was in Montreal on hard courts, thus the Canadian is the favorite.
Nadal has beaten Federer all three times this year, including in Cincy and Indian Wells. I just don’t think Federer has it in him to beat a healthy in-form Nadal anymore. This is not 2006-2007 anymore.
If these quarters come to fruition, it will spawn a great set of offerings.
Semis:
Murray d. Djokovic
Nadal d. Raonic
In a rematch of the 2012 US Open final, the 2013 Australian Open and the 2013 Wimbledon final, I like Murray over Novak given their overall play this year. Again, it’s a toss-up and Novak has an 11-8 H2H and a 9-6 H2H edge on hard courts.
Nadal should beat Raonic rather easily like he did in the Montreal final.
Final:
Nadal d. Murray
The two players who have performed at their best this year, Nadal and Murray, should meet in the USO final. It is 60/40 Nadal simply because he has not lost on hardcourts this year. Murray will certainly give it a go, but if Nadal is at 100%, I think he wins this in four sets. The overall H2H is 13-5 Nadal, but on hardcourts, it is almost even with Nadal having a 6-5 edge. Nadal in a razor thin decision.
