American Steve Johnson captured his first ever ATP title and improved to 1-1 in career ATP finals with a 7-6 7-5 victory over Uruguay’s Pablo Cuevas. Johnson showed great grass court ability in Nottingham and set himself up as a potential Wimbledon dark horse with wins over John Millman, Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson, and Andreas Seppi, along with the title over surprise finalist Cuevas. Only the match against the top seed Anderson went the distance.
Cuevas was bidding to be the first South American player to win a grass court title in 20 years, as wins over Stephane Robert, Daniel Evans, Marcos Baghdatis, and Gilles Muller were inspiring and gutsy, but he simply appeared to be fatigued by the final, as all but Robert pushed him to the full three sets. In Baghdatis and Muller, Cuevas upset accomplished grass court veterans, and showed an all-court game that few thought he had in him. Prior to this season, Cuevas had played just 10 career matches on grass, and had a sub .500 record in those matches.
Dominic Inglot and Daniel Nestor defeated Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo in the doubles final, as the Canadian and the Brit demonstrated their grass court experience and skill.
2016 ATP Nottingham Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The grass season will have a final pit stop in Nottingham before Wimbledon gets underway. Here is a preview with predictions.
Aegon Open Nottingham
ATP World Tour 250
Nottingham, Great Britain
June 19-25, 2016
Surface: Grass
Prize Money: €648,255
Top 8 seeds (top 16 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kevin Anderson (20)
2: Pablo Cuevas (26)
3: Joao Sousa (30)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (31)
5: Sam Querrey (32)
6: Steve Johnson (39)
7: Andreas Seppi (40)
8: Gilles Muller (41)
A lack of top players means Nottingham is quite an open tournament.
The young Australian is 5-2 on grass in recent tournaments and he’d love to make an ATP run in this 250 to boost his ranking. Becker, a steady veteran, plays well on quick surfaces and rallies well on grass, this should be a close match, and I have Becker’s experience winning the day.
Adrian Mannarino vs. Taylor Fritz
Mannarino, another standout on fast surfaces, is 5-2 on grass in recent weeks, and he has a great chance to post another solid showing after reaching the quarters in Den Bosch. Fritz is a rising young American who showed more of his tremendous promise when he took a set off of Roger Federer in Stuttgart. He’s the underdog in this match, but don’t count him out.
Lukas Rosol vs. Kyle Edmund
Taking a set off of Andy Murray at Queen’s Club last week went a long way to showing that Kyle Edmund may finally fulfill some of his promise on grass this season. The big hitting but erratic Lukas Rosol stands in his way, and with Rosol struggling, I have Edmund pulling an upset and giving British fans some excitement before Wimbledon.
The big serving Kevin Anderson hasn’t been healthy this season but he won a pair of matches in Queens and appears to be finding a bit of form. He should roll past Ivan Dodig or Julien Benneteau before running into Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco upset Stan Wawrinka in Queen’s, and I have the Spaniard upsetting Anderson after defeating the serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram (who opens with Victor Estrella).
Vasek Pospisil is a miserable 6-15 this year, his poor form this season is looking to rebound on grass. Luckily, he’ll open with a struggling Denis Istomin, presuming Istomin dispatches Damir Dzumhur in round 1. I have Pospisil falling to Steve Johnson after the American defeats John Millman or Thomaz Bellucci, both of whom are struggling. Verdasco should have the edge on Johnson given the surface.
Joao Sousa is average at best on grass and I have him falling to Dudi Sela, an Israeli veteran who is above average on the surface and tends to get enough good results to keep his ranking up. Sela opens with a qualifier, and the Sousa/Sela winner will be opposite Becker/Thompson most likely in round 3. Guido Pella is poor on grass, and thus I have Becker over Sela for a spot in the quarterfinals.
The Mannarino/Fritz winner has a great chance of reaching the quarters as well. I have Mannarino defeating dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi, and then Andreas Seppi, after Seppi defeats James Ward or Malek Jaziri. Seppi was a quarterfinalist in Halle but he’s had a rather mediocre season. Between Mannarino and Becker I have Mannarino winning and the Frenchman reaching the semis.
Bottom Half:
Halle quarterfinalist Marcos Baghdatis is set to do well in Nottingham. His experience, and attacking abilities on fast surfaces should earn him a win over the great ball striker Denis Kudla, after Kudla beats Evgeny Donskoy. Baghdatis is then likely to matchup with Sam Querrey, after Querrey defeats Diego Schwartzman or a qualifier. Querrey was a semifinalist in Den Bosch and is also solid on grass, but I have Baghdatis strongest in this section.
The #2 seed Pablo Cuevas is poor on grass which sets up either Brydan Klein or a qualifier to defeat him and reach round 3. Ricardas Berankis will be opposite either Dan Evans or Liam Broady, both brits. This is a hard to project section, but Evans has more experience and thus I have him reaching the quarters. Baghdatis should prevail from there.
Gilles Muller, a finalist in Den Bosch, is 6-2 on grass this season and is a great serve and volleyer on grass. Muller should serve past Jiri Vesely, after Vesely defeats Horacio Zeballos, then serve past the veteran Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny reached the quarters in Stuttgart and should have an edge against Teymuraz Gabashvili, along with dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta in round 2.
Alexandr Dolgopolov is unpredictable, in particular on grass, he could fall to Edmund or Rosol in round 2, but if he can find form I have him reaching the quarterfinals with an additional win over Mikhail Kukushkin, before falling to Muller at that stage. Kukushkin just won a challenger on clay, and will face Alex Ward or a qualifier in round 2.
Outside of the major seeds, Mannarino is a threat to win the tournament, he has every reason to want to grab a title and the ranking points to go with it, and unlike some of the other players in the draw, he’s less likely to be focused on Wimbledon.
Predictions
Semis Verdasco d. Mannarino
Baghdatis d. Muller
Verdasco is 2-0 against Mannarino, and I have Baghdatis over Muller given the 3-0 h2h.
Final Baghdatis d. Verdasco
Baghdatis is 3-0 against Verdasco in his career and he’d love to win an ATP title, this is a great chance for him to do just that at an advanced stage in his career.
Denis Istomin captured his first ever ATP title in Nottingham, as the Uzbek #1 battled his way through multiple tough matches to win the 250 level grass court title. Istomin won two tiebreaks over American Sam Querrey for a 7-6 7-6 final victory.
Prior to that Denis menaced his way past Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco, and Sergiy Stakhovsky without dropping a set. He faced a match point against Leonardo Mayer but prevailed in three sets, and beat Marcos Baghdatis via retirement in the semifinals, as Baghdatis pulled out to rest before Wimbledon.
Querrey got past Santiago Giraldo, and Pablo Cuevas in straights, and then Gilles Simon in three sets saving match point en route. In the semis, he slipped past Alexandr Dolgopolov in 3 sets.
Chris Guccione and Andre Sa won the doubles title over David Marrero and Pablo Cuevas.
2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 23 (Nottingham) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
A lone 250 level tournament is on the ATP calendar this week, as our analysts make their picks for another week of grass court tennis.
Nottingham
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Ferrer vs. Baghdatis, Zverev vs. Bellucci, Klizan vs. Bolelli, Bedene vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Ramos-Vinolas, Ward vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Almagro, Johnson vs. Troicki, Thiem vs. Edmund, Dolgopolov vs. Andujar, Seppi vs. Lu, Carreno Busta vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Sela, Giraldo vs. Querrey, Sousa vs. Groth, Pospisil vs. Simon Round of 16 Matches: Ferrer vs. Zverev, Bolelli vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Vesely, Almagro vs. Johnson, Thiem vs. Dolgopolov, Seppi vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Querrey, Groth vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Ferrer vs. Mannarino, Vesely vs. Johnson, Dolgopolov vs. Lopez, Querrey vs. Groth Semifinals: Ferrer vs. Johnson, Lopez vs. Groth Final: Ferrer vs. Lopez Champion: Ferrer
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Ferrer vs. Baghdatis, Kukushkin vs. Bellucci, Klizan vs. Bolelli, Bedene vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Ramos-Vinolas, Ward vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Istomin, Stakhovsky vs. Troicki, Thiem vs. Edmund, Dolgopolov vs. Andujar, Seppi vs. Lu, Carreno Busta vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Sela, Giraldo vs. Querrey, Sousa vs. Groth, Pospisil vs. Simon Round of 16 Matches: Ferrer vs. Kukushkin, Klizan vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Ward, Istomin vs. Johnson, Thiem vs. Dolgopolov, Seppi vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Querrey, Groth vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Ferrer vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Troicki, Dolgopolov vs. Lopez, Querrey vs. Simon Semifinals: Ferrer vs. Troicki, Lopez vs. Simon Final: Ferrer vs. Lopez Champion: Lopez
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Ferrer vs. Baghdatis, Zverev vs. Bellucci, Klizan vs. Bolelli, Bedene vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Chung, Ward vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Almagro, Johnson vs. Troicki, Thiem vs. Edmund, Dolgopolov vs. Andujar, Seppi vs. Lu, Carreno Busta vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Gimeno-Traver, Haider-Maurer vs. Querrey, Sousa vs. Groth, Pospisil vs. Simon Round of 16 Matches: Ferrer vs. Zverev, Bolelli vs. Mannarino, Mayer vs. Vesely, Almagro vs. Troicki, Thiem vs. Dolgopolov, Seppi vs. Lopez, Cuevas vs. Querrey, Groth vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Ferrer vs. Bolelli, Vesely vs. Troicki, Dolgopolov vs. Seppi, Querrey vs. Simon Semifinals: Ferrer vs. Troicki, Dolgopolov vs. Simon Final: Ferrer vs. Dolgopolov Champion: Ferrer
A Ferrer vs. Lopez final is a likely outcome this week
2015 ATP Nottingham Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final ATP grass court tune-up before Wimbledon 2015 will take place in Nottingham, rather than Eastbourne this year, as the former challenger was upgraded to an ATP event by the LTA. After two full weeks on grass, many top ATP players are taking advantage of a final chance to get grass court matches and here is a preview.
ATP Nottingham
2015 ATP Nottingham Preview
Aegon Open Nottingham
ATP World Tour 250
Nottingham, England
June 21-June 27, 2015
Prize Money: €589,160
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses) (top 16 seeds receive first round byes)
1: David Ferrer (7)
2: Gilles Simon (13)
3: Feliciano Lopez (14)
4: Leonardo Mayer (22)
5: Pablo Cuevas (23)
6: Viktor Troicki (25)
7: Dominic Thiem (29)
8: Adrian Mannarino (32)
The top 16 seeds are all top 50 players, and three of the top 20 are here for this solid 250 level event with a larger field than most.
Another chance for the young gun Korean Chung to get ATP match experience, and perhaps an upset win, as Ramos is a clay courter, and his high spinning game is not well suited for grass. Chung has struggled mightily on grass this year with two losses to beatable opponents, and he’s currently on a three match losing streak. Ramos is debuting on grass this season, I’d still expect him to win this, but we’ll see what Chung can do with his ball striking oriented game.
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Steve Johnson
Johnson notched a win over Stakhovsky this year at Roland Garros, and he’ll try to earn another in Nottingham. Stakhovsky has been struggling, in part due to a back injury, and he’s on a three match losing streak, while Johnson upset Bernard Tomic in Halle, before losing in round 2. I’d give Johnson an edge to advance in this one due to Stakhovsky’s poor form and possibly health.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (WC)Taylor Harry Fritz
This is a great opportunity for young American wild card Taylor Harry Fritz to get experience on grass and he’s facing a beatable opponent in Carreno Busta. Fritz, 17, is the current world junior #1, and he was a recent runner-up for the French Open junior title. His ATP main draw debut will take place against a dirtballer, who struggles to find wins on fast surfaces. Though Carreno Busta has more experience, I expect him to at least be in for a challenge.
David Ferrer could be in for a tough opening match, presuming Marcos Baghdatis can dispatch Victor Estrella in round 1. The pair of veterans last met in 2013, and Ferrer has a 4-1 h2h advantage. That said, Baghdatis has played four matches in recent weeks on grass, while Ferrer is making his season debut on grass, a surface he has gone 5-3 on over the past two seasons. Given his superior play on the season, Ferrer, a French Open quarterfinalist, should advance, and regardless I expect the Baghdatis/Ferrer winner to reach the quarters, perhaps by beating seed Thomaz Bellucci. Presuming Bellucci defeats Alex Zverev/Mikhail Kukushkin. Bellucci hasn’t won a match on grass in 5 years, while Zverev has performed decently well thus far on it, thus in my own bracket I have Zverev into the round of 16.
Adrian Mannarino will open with Diego Schwartzman or Aljaz Bedene in round 2, give Mannarino is the better grass courter I’d expect him to win that match, though Simone Bolelli should test him in round 3. Bolelli opens with a qualifier, and then will face the seed Martin Klizan, who has never had much success on grass. Mannarino and Bolelli have never played, nor has AM played Klizan. Given the questionable form of either player, I’d favor Mannarino to reach the quarters, Bolelli was very poor after qualifying in Queens.
Ferrer beat Mannarino last year in four sets at the AO, Mannarino could pull off the upset, but Ferrer seems like a trusty pick to reach the semis in my mind.
Leonardo Mayer will face the Chung/Ramos winner, Chung would have a great shot at scoring two ATP wins if his form wasn’t poor right now. Mayer actually went 3-1 on grass last year, and thus almost by default of being the only decent player on grass, he should reach the third round. Jiri Vesely should challenge him at that stage though, presuming the young Czech can defeat the winner of James Ward/Tim Smyczek. Given Wardy is a good grass court player, he should beat Smyczek, and perhaps upset Vesely. In a weak, and rather open section, I’m going with Vesely to reach the quarters over Mayer, but this section is hard to predict.
Viktor Troicki, currently in the Queens semifinals, and a finalist in Stuttgart, opens with the Stakhovsky/Johnson winner. Presuming he doesn’t withdrawal after playing so many matches in recent weeks, I’m going with Johnson to upset him. Troicki is great on grass, but after so many matches, he should want to rest up so he can do his best at Wimbledon, where he could serve as a dark horse. The third round opponent for Johnson/Troicki could be Nicolas Almagro. Almagro, an aggressive grass court player when he wants to be, opens with a struggling Denis Istomin, and he should be able to beat Juan Monaco in round 2, a player he has beaten on grass before, and faced many times, losing both of their matches this year. It’s hard to predict the outcome of Johnson/Almagro, but I’m going with Johnson to reach the quarterfinals in the leadup to Wimbledon.
Johnson and Vesely have yet to play, tt’d be interesting if they do face off and I’d give Johnson the slightest edge to advance given this is grass. A Ferrer vs. Johnson semi is my pick for the top half.
Gilles Simon, who played well in Queens, will open with the Marcel Granollers/Vasek Pospisil winner. Vashy is 2-2 on grass in 2015, while Simon is 3-1, coming off of a semifinal in Queens. Presuming fatigue doesn’t play a factor, look for Simon to even his h2h to 1-1 against Vasek and reach the third round. Simon could be troubled by a big server at that stage, Sam Groth needing only to beat a qualifier, and ball striker Joao Sousa. Sousa isn’t great on grass, and Groth has already won a challenger on it and reached the quarters in Stuttgart. Groth’s serve and volley can be lethal on a low bouncing, and fast surface, and though servebot matches tend to be notoriously hard to predict, often coming down to tiebreaks, I’m going with Groth to reach the quarters again in Nottingham with three wins.
The #5 seed is Pablo Cuevas, he’s not great on grass, and if the right qualifier is placed here, he could well reach the third round win wins over dirtballers Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Cuevas. Without knowing who that qualifier will be, I’ll hedge and say either Cuevas or the qualifier into the third round, with either Sam Querrey or Santiago Giraldo having a strong edge to reach the quarters. Giraldo will face Andreas Haider-Maurer round 1, and should snap a two match losing streak in that one. Querrey has lost three straight, but his game is well suited for grass, and thus I have him defeating Giraldo and Cuevas/Qualifier for a spot in the quarters.
Groth vs. Querrey would be a great grass court match, Given his better form as of late, I’d go with Groth to advance, perhaps in two tiebreaks, as Querrey isn’t a very clutch player.
Feliciano Lopez is one of the best grass court players, if not the best, in the field this week, and he’ll open with the Fritz/Carreno Busta winner, if Fritz pulls off an upset in round 1, Lopez will be a huge step up for him, and I expect him to be overmatched and overwhelmed by his slicing serve and volely game. Lopez should next face Andreas Seppi, a current Halle finalist, in round 3, presuming Seppi isn’t fatigued, after facing Rendy Lu or a qualifier. Seppi has a 3-1 advantage in the h2h against Lopez, but Lopez is the better grass court player, his 1-2 record on the surface this year not withstanding, as he has lost two third set tiebreaks in those matches. I’d be shocked if Lopez doesn’t reach the quarters out of this section, as he badly needs to do so to keep his ranking up where he wants it to be.
#7 seed Dominic Thiem gets a bye, but I’m not sure if he really wants one after struggling on grass this year. The young Austrian doesn’t seem comfortable on the surface, and wild card Kyle Edmund is a threat to reach the third round, presuming he’s healthy. Edmund was injured at the French Open, and has missed the first two weeks on grass to his chagrin, while Jaziri is 1-2 on the surface. Thiem is the better young gun, but a healthy Edmund would have a great chance against him. I have Thiem into the third round myself, but we’ll have to see what happens. In that third round, the erratic vanquisher of Rafael Nadal from Queens, Alexandr Dolgopolov, is a likely opponent. Dolgo showed his shotmaking prowess as he beat Nadal yet again in Queens, but he lost in the next round, which pretty much explains his career thus far. With Donald Young in awful form round 1, Dolgo should have an easy start, and the same can be said about dirtballer Pablo Andujar in round 2. I don’t trust Thiem on grass, or Edmund’s health, so Dolgopolov is my pick for the quarters.
Lopez vs. Dolgopolov could be the match of the tournament if it takes place, Dolgo can beat anyone at his best, but given this is grass, Lopez is my pick to reach the semis.
Dolgoplov, Baghdatis, Johnson, and possibly Pospisil are all dark horse threats this week, but Groth, if his serve is on, could win the title this week, which would be a first for him on the ATP tour. The Aussie has a massive serve and his volleys have certainly improved, but his groundstrokes remain futures level, and his backhand is quite poor. With that in mind their little margin for error, and Gilles Simon, along with most likely Querrey, Lopez could all doom him before he reaches the final. It’s tough to know how things will go, but he has the highest ceiling of any player in this draw.
Predictions
Semis
Ferrer d. Johnson
Lopez d. Groth
Ferrer should find himself to simply be the better, and more complete player against Johnson, in shot selection, defense, movement, and most things except forehand. Lopez and Groth played in Stuttgart, and Groth pulled out a three set win, we could see the same result again, but I’m going with Lopez to reach the final.
Final Ferrer d. Lopez
Ferrer and Lopez have yet to meet on grass, and that surface would give Lopez a great chance, that said, he hasn’t defeated Ferrer since 2009, and has lost the last five meetings against his countryman. With that being the case, Ferrer should be the favorite to take the title in Nottingham this week, and capture a title in 2015 on every surface.
Tennis Atlantic 