The top seed Tsitsipas won his opening match against Guido Andreozzi and now faces a far tougher test against the veteran Seppi. Seppi has edged past Jeremy Chardy and Martin Klizan to reach this stage, and he’ll be highly motivated to play his best and try to win this tournament, given his AO expectations are far more muted. Tsitsipas is a rising star though and he’ll be tough to put away, I expect the favored Greek to reach the semis.
Schwartzman will be favored against Nishioka after an easy win in the last round. Nishioka qualified and has already won four matches including main draw wins against Ryan Harrison and Andrey Rublev. Both players are undersized ball strikers with punchy games. I’ll go for the upset here though, with Nishioka rising and redlining his game right now.
Millman survived a stern test against Frances Tiafoe and then eased past Marton Fucsovics to reach this stage. The home favorite will be an underdog against Gilles Simon. Simon is 3-1 to start the season and should be in good shape to reach the semifinals in what will be a contest worth watching.
Alex De Minaur vs Jordan Thompson
Thompson has been in really good form since the end of last season, but De Minaur is the more talented Aussie and will be favored in this contest. ADM is 4-1 to start the season and has a real shot at lifting this title.
Semis
Tsitsipas d. Nishioka
De Minaur d. Simon
The top seed Tsitsipas is favored to lift this title, with De Minaur coming short for the second year in a row.
Kyle Edmund came back from a set down and needed two tiebreaks to defeat veteran Gael Monfils in the Antwerp 250 final. Edmund got a walkover against Ilya Ivashka in the quarters but needed straight set wins against Albert Ramos and Richard Gasquet to make the final. It’s Edmund’s first title of 2018.
Monfils, who has suffered through a poor season, defeated Ruben Bemelmans, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (in 3 sets), Vasek Pospisil, and Diego Schwartzman to reach the final.
Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin teamed up to defeat Demoliner/Gonzalez in the doubles final.
Home hero Karen Khachanov won his second ATP title of the season, defeating Adrian Mannarino in a 6-2 6-2 drubbing. Lukas Rosol, Mirza Basic, and Daniil Medvedev also lost to Khachanov, with Medvedev dropping the semifinal match in three sets.
Mannarino blitzed past Evgeny Karlovisky, Marco Cecchinato, Egor Gerasimov, and Andreas Seppi to reach the final, continuing his credible run of results after hitting age 30.
Americans Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram combined to win the doubles title defeating Mirnyi/Oswald.
Young gun Stefanos Tsitsipas continued his rise on the ATP tour, defeating Ernests Gulbis 6-4 6-4, after previously scoring wins against John Millman, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Fabio Fognini. The win is the maiden ATP title for Tsitsipas.
Gulbis making the final is a blast from the past, now 30, he reached his first ATP final since 2014. He came through qualifying then defeated Mikael Ymer, Denis Shapovalov, Jack Sock, and John Isner showing he can still be a factor at the ATP level.
Brits Luke Bambridge and Jonny O’Mara combined to win the doubles title defeating Koolhof/Daniell
7-6 6-4 was the scoreline as Roger Federer won ATP title #99, this one in his home country of Switzerland against Marius Copil after previously dropping sets against Filip Krajinovic and Gilles Simon. Federer was hot and cold this week as he also scored wins against J.L. Struff, and Daniil Medvedev. In the end though he once again lifted the trophy in Basel and now has a shot to take title 100 before the year’s end.
Copil reached his second career ATP final, as he’s had a breakthrough 2018. Copil qualified then defeated Ryan Harrison, Marin Cilic, Taylor Fritz, and Alexander Zverev to reach the final. The wins against Cilic and Zverev both of elite quality, as we should see Copil burst into the ATP top 50 next season.
Dominic Inglot and Franko Skugor defeated the Zverev brothers in the doubles final.
Tour veteran Kevin Anderson won his second ATP title of 2018, defeating Kei Nishikori in straight sets after previously defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili, Borna Coric, and Fernando Verdasco to reach the final, Jurgen Melzer surrendered a walkover in round 2. Nishikori continued his solid season with wins against Frances Tiafoe, Karen Khachanov, Dominic Thiem, and Mikhail Kukushkin. The win against Thiem was a big one as Thiem was playing in his home tournament in Vienna.
Joe Salisbury and Ken Skupski defeated Mike Bryan and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the doubles final.
American Invasion Led by John Isner at ATP Stockholm 2018 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The third European indoor 250 tournament this week is in Stockholm where a host of Americans including John Isner and Jack Sock are set to feature.
Top Half:
Top seed John Isner will take on his countryman Bradley Klahn or Marius Copil in round 2, Isner will also be favored against Lucas Pouille in the quarterfinals. Pouille should defeat Tennys Sandgren and a qualifier to reach the quarters.
I’ll back home hero Elias Ymer to make a run, Ymer opens with a struggling Max Marterer, and then he should be favored against the terribly out of sorts Jack Sock, who has had one of the worst ATP seasons ever. Denis Shapovalov should go on a tear, a qualifier, and Mikael Ymer/qualifier will be the first two opponents for Shapovalov, then Shapovalov will be favored against Ymer.
Fabio Fognini is in good form, and presuming he’s fit he should ease past Taro Daniel/Lukas Lacko, and then Taylor Fritz in the quarters after Fritz defeats Hyeon Chung and countryman Denis Kudla or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
Stefanos Tsitipas will be favored in a tough section, John Millman/Peter Gojowczyk are first up, Fernando Verdasco will be favored against Matt Ebden, with Alex De Minaur favored against Phillipp Kohlschreiber. I have Verdasco over ADM, then Tsitsipas over Verdasco.
Goffin, Dimitrov, and French Stars Finish the 2017 ATP Season Strong Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Goffin Makes a Big Run
Despite falling short in the Davis Cup final as a team, David Goffin had a great finish to 2017, as he won titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo, reached the semifinals in Basel, and then the final in the ATP World Tour Finals in London. After the US Open he scored wins over Richard Gasquet, Adrian Mannarino, Jack Sock, Dominic Thiem, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer. In the Davis Cup final he defeated Lucas Pouille and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but it still wasn’t enough.
France Captures Davis Cup
France finally won the Davis Cup, after losing a multitude of finals Tsonga and Pouille defeated Steve Darcis twice, and Gasquet and Pierre-Hugues Herbert defeated Ruben Bemelmans and Joris De Loore in what turned out to be the critical doubles rubber. Pouille defeated his teammate Tsonga in the Vienna 500 final, while Tsonga won Antwerp.
Breakthrough for Sock
Jack Sock won the biggest title of his career at the Paris Masters, he won over a weakened field with wins over Kyle Edmund, Pouille, Fernando Verdasco, Julien Benneteau, and Filip Krajinovic. He qualified for the World Tour Finals by virtue of that victory and reached the semifinals after going 2-1 with wins over Alexander Zverev and Marin Cilic.
Dimitrov and Del Potro Looking Strong Heading Into 2018
Grigor Dimitrov finished the year with 49 wins and 4 titles as he reached the final in Stockholm, and the final at the World Tour Finals in London, beating Pablo Carreno Busta, Goffin twice, Dominic Thiem, and Sock.
Juan Martin Del Potro reached the semis in Shanghai, the final in Basel, took a title in Stockholm, and finished the year with a quarterfinal in Paris.
Nadal and Federer Finish 1-2
Damir Dzumhur has 2 ATP titles to end the year as he won in both St. Petersburg and Moscow, while Hyeon Chung won the Next-Gen finals over Andrey Rublev. Nadal won Beijing and lost the final in Shanghai, shutting down his season at the World Tour Finals due to injury concerns but still finishing year end world #1. Federer won Shanghai and Basel to finish year end #2.
Juan Martin Del Potro claimed his first ATP title since 2014, and his first since returning from serious wrist injuries in Stockholm. The Argentine became his nation’s #1 again and eased past Jack Sock 7-5 6-1. Del Potro didn’t drop a set all week as he dominated a host of quality ATP level opponents with his trademark power hitting tennis. Del Potro eased past big servers John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, with Nicolas Almagro in between. He defeated Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals.
Sock for his part had to fight to earn some tough wins this week, he defeated Malek Jaziri, Dustin Brown, Gastao Elias, and Alexander Zverev to reach the final. Sock is likely to finish the year with three ATP finals but no titles, all of his finals this year came at the ATP 250 level.
The Ymer brothers, Mikael and Elias had a home triumph over Mate Pavic and Michael Venus in the doubles final. The Swedish young guns were wild cards and surprise champions.
ATP Antwerp
Richard Gasquet won his second ATP title of the season 7-6 6-1 over Diego Schwartzman. Gasquet was one of the top players in the Antwerp field and eased past Inigo Cervantes and Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets before a three set win over rising Brit Kyle Edmund in the semifinals. The Argentine Schwartzman reached his second career ATP final after upsetting Nicolas Mahut, Taylor Fritz, Pablo Cuevas, and Belgium’s #1 David Goffin. Goffin’s semifinal loss hurt his chances of qualifying for the 2016 World Tour Finals.
Daniel Nestor and Edouard Roger-Vasselin beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut in a doubles final contested between two well known ATP doubles pairings.
ATP Moscow
Pablo Carreno Busta won his second career ATP title, both came this season. The Spaniard completed a comeback victory over Italy’s Fabio Fognini 4-6 6-3 6-2. His 38 wins this season are a career high, as he’s broken through into the ATP’s top 40.
Fognini beat Ricardas Berankis, his countryman Paolo Lorenzi, Albert Ramos, and Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the final. PCB defeated Jurgen Melzer, Damir Dzumhur, Alexander Bublik, and Stephane Robert to reach the final that ended with the champions trophy in his hands.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah defeated Julian Knowle and Jurgen Melzer to take the doubles title.
2016 ATP Stockholm Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour returns to Sweden with a 250 level stop in Stockholm. Here is a preview with predictions.
IF Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
October 17-23, 2016
Stockholm, Sweden
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: €566,525
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gael Monfils (8)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (18)
3: Ivo Karlovic (20)
4: Alexander Zverev (21)
The top two seeds are former champions as Stockholm boasts a strong field for a 250.
First round matchups to watch:
Gilles Muller vs. Dustin Brown
Muller should ease past Brown, but Brown won’t go down without a highlight reel. Both are serve and volleyers who should battle hard, and Muller’s superior serving should win the day.
(7)John Isner vs. (WC)Juan Martin Del Potro
Isner has won his last two matches against Del Potro, but the former American #1 has had a poor year, while Del Potro is rising up the rankings. Isner’s poor form could turn around against Del Potro if he serves his best, but the Argentine is the favorite to knock off the seed.
(8)Marcos Baghdatis vs. Kevin Anderson
Baghdatis has split meetings against Anderson, both are veterans who could use a win in this match. Anderson may have a slight edge due to his serving, but I have Baghdatis picking his way to a close win.
Top Half:
Gael Monfils is competing in the race for London and looks set to face Jack Sock in the quarters after beats Ivan Dodig or a struggling Gastao Elias. The Shanghai quarterfinalist Sock opens with Malek Jaziri, a streaky challenger, with the Muller/Brown winner to follow. It’s not an easy draw for Sock, but I have him falling to Monfils in the quarterfinals.
Alexander Zverev looks set to face Steve Johnson in the quarters. Zverev will face Donald Young or Adrian Mannarino in round 2, Johnson will face Radu Albot, then Tobias Kamke or Elias Ymer. The home Swede Ymer will have crowd backing, but Johnson should win until he faces an in-form Zverev in the quarters.
Bottom Half:
Grigor Dimitrov will face Benjamin Becker or Jurgen Zopp in round 2, with the Baghdatis/Anderson winner set to make the quarters. Qualifiers Adam Pavlasek and Ryan Harrison are also in this section with the former Stockholm champion Dimitrov. Dimitrov should defeat Becker, then Baghdatis, if Baghdatis can beat Anderson and Harrison in his first two matches. Dimitrov reached the Beijing final and is still looking for his first ATP title this season.
Ivo Karlovic is 15-10 on hard courts this season, which isn’t great for a player who is at his best on fast surfaces with his powerful serve. Karlovic should face Del Potro in the quarters if he can serve past Fernando Verdasco or wild card Mikael Ymer. Verdasco has been struggling this season. Del Potro over Karlovic is my pick in the quarters. Del Potro will face Nicolas Almagro or Yuichi Sugita in round 2.
Dark Horse: Jack Sock
Sock could take home the title if he can upset Monfils and then most likely beat Zverev in the semifinals. Stockholm isn’t an easy draw for the American, but if his forehand is clicking he’s a dark horse.
Predictions
Semis Monfils d. Zverev
Del Potro d. Dimitrov
Monfils needs wins to qualify for London, while Del Potro has the most upside in the draw.
Final Monfils d. Del Potro
Monfils would secure his World Tour Finals spot if he can serve and return with the consistency he found this Summer. He has all the talent, but he’ll need to focus in Stockholm.
David Ferrer moved closer to clinching one of the final World Tour Finals slots with his 5th title of the season in Vienna. The Spanish veteran did one better than his final in the Austrian capital last year and slipped past maiden ATP finalist Steve Johnson 4-6 6-4 7-5 to take the title. The American Johnson played hard and continues his career best season but Ferrer survived in the clutch.
The final was the toughest match for Ferrer since a three set victory over countryman Albert Ramos in round 1, and from there he went on to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Fabio Fognini, and Gael Monfils in routine straight set affairs. Ferrer has now captured three ATP 500 level titles this season.
Johnson found form after escaping his first two matches with three set victories over Alex Dolgopolov and Jerzy Janowicz. In the quarterfinals he upset Kevin Anderson in three sets, and Ernests Gulbis in straight sets, as Gulbis was denied a spot in his first ATP final of the season. Stevie J, a former NCAA standout, continues to improve and has now cemented himself as a solid player on the ATP tour, having matured his game beyond simply a powerful forehand.
Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo beat Jamie Murray/John Peers to win the doubles final in a battle of doubles specialists.
Americans fell to 0-2 in ATP finals this weekend when Tomas Berdych demolished Jack Sock 7-6 6-2 for his third career ATP Stockholm title. The in-form Berdych has now equaled his number of trophies from last year with a late run of form this Fall. He won Shenzen, and now has Stockholm to go with it.
The powerful Czech didn’t drop a set in all four of his matches this week and faced few challenges against Alex Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, and an injured Marcos Baghdatis en route to the final. Sock needed three sets against both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fernando Verdasco, but like his buddy Johnson in Vienna, he got hot in the quarterfinals and semifinals and upset Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet to reach the final. The 23 year old American is in the midst of a career year and now has two ATP finals (with 1 title) on his resume.
Sock did one better in doubles, teaming with Nick Monroe to take the title over Mate Pavic/Michael Venus. Sock has three ATP doubles titles this season.
In one more note, Finland’s best ever tennis player Jarkko Nieminen finished up his ATP career with a hard fought third set defeat in Stockholm.
Top seed Marin Cilic won his first title of the season as he repeated as champion in Moscow 6-4 6-4 in an hour and a half over Roberto Bautista Agut. The title will aid Cilic as he seeks to return to the top 10, and make sure he finishes in the top 15 by the end of the year.
The Croatian was only troubled by Denis Istomin in his first match, prevailing in three sets, and he beat Russian hopes Andrey Kuznetsov and surprise semifinalist Evgeny Donskoy to reach the final. Bautista Agut found form and beat Marsel Ilhan, Lucas Pouille, and Philipp Kohlschreiber over the same span without dropping a set. This final is his best result of the season after multiple ATP semifinal appearances.
The wild card pairing of young gun Andrey Rublev and Russian veteran Dmitry Tursunov took home the doubles title over Radu Albot/Frantisek Cermak. The 32 year old Tursunov has been out with injuries for a year and his run in doubles comes as a shock given the rust factor.
2015 ATP Vienna, Stockholm, and Moscow Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A trio of European indoor hard court tournaments take place this week on the ATP tour as the season enters its final weeks.
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 500
Vienna, Austria
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €1,745,040
8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Kevin Anderson (10)
3: John Isner (13)
4: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (15)
5: Dominic Thiem (18)
6: Gael Monfils (19)
7: Ivo Karlovic (21)
8: Fabio Fognini (26)
Two top 10, and six top 20 players are in Vienna for its first edition as a 500 level tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)David Ferrer vs. Albert Ramos
Ferrer has a 4-0 h2h record against his countryman and should be a solid favorite after posting a 7-2 record over his last 9 matches. Ramos is in great form though, he qualified in Shanghai and shocked Roger Federer for the biggest win of his career, going on to push eventual finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three sets in the round of 16. Ferrer is a better player, and far better indoors, but Ramos may be able to notch another top 10 win in this one if Ferrer plays as poorly as he did in Shanghai.
(8)Fabio Fognini vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Fognini leads the h2h 2-1 with Mathieu but they haven’t played since 2009. The French veteran isn’t a clutch player but he has a solid ballstriking game indoors and could trouble Fognini if the Italian loses his cool. Fabio reached the semis in Beijing and his form has been good since the US Open though, so I have him avoiding the upset and winning this one.
Janowicz has a h2h win over Thiem and recently reached a challenger final on indoor hard. JJ has a great game for this venue, though he’s struggled to maintain ATP level tennis this season, and Thiem faces the pressure of being the home favorite. Both player are about equal in talent level, but Thiem’s consistency should help him prevail.
The defending finalist David Ferrer should draw another Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, in the second round after facing Ramos. GGL has lost three straight matches, and his round 1 opponent Santiago Giraldo is struggling mightily as well. Though GGL is good indoors, Ferrer leads the h2h 7-1 and he should reach the quarterfinals.
Fabio Fognini should be able to reach the quarterfinals as well, as he’ll face either Austrian journeyman Dennis Novak or Radek Stepanek in round 2, after his match with PHM. Stepanek hasn’t played well in quite some time and I don’t expect him to challenge Fognini. Ferrer leads the h2h with Fognini 8-0 and with the World Tour Finals on the line, look for Ferrer to make the semifinals in Austria.
Shanghai finalist, and former Vienna champion, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may be exhausted from his exploits at the Masters level but his round 1 opponent Tommy Haas, a loser of four straight matches, isn’t likely to defeat him. After Haas I also give Lukas Rosol or qualifier Yuichi Sugita a limited chance to upset Tsonga. Rosol has a big enough game to pull it off, but Tsonga is an excellent indoors player and the Czech has been out of tune for some time.
Gael Monfils is the biggest threat to Tsonga reaching the semifinals, The high flying Frenchman will look to extend his h2h over a struggling Thomaz Bellucci to 3-0 in his first match since the US Open. Monfils has struggled to stay healthy, but Bellucci, and likely Rajeev Ram in round 2 are both opponents he should be favored against. Ram opens with dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 1.
Monfils beat Tsonga in Miami this year, but Tsonga has an edge in the overall h2h, and I look for Jo to bite him back if they meet in the quarterfinals. Fatigue is a factor, but so is rust with Monfils.
Bottom Half:
Kevin Anderson should cruise to the quarterfinals past Austria’s Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Jiri Vesely, presuming Vesely beats Austrian wild card Gerald Melzer in round 1. Vesely reached the quarterfinals in Shenzen and he’s a streaky player. The h2h between Kev and Jiri is 1-1, with Vesely beating him early this season in Auckland. Indoors with Anderson’s serve the result should swing to his favor. Anderson comes off the quarterfinals in Shanghai and solid wins over Fognini and Kei Nishikori.
I look for Dominic Thiem to beat Janowicz and then the winner of Alex Dolgopolov/Steve Johnson to reach the quarterfinals in front of the home fans. Dolgo has lost five straight matches, but he was solid enough in Shanghai and he has a higher peak than Johnson who won a round in Shanghai and went out in round 2. Thiem and Dolgo is a tough matchup, but consistency and venue should give Thiem the advantage.
Anderson is 3-0 in the h2h against Thiem and beat him at the US Open this year, it could be close, but big Kev should gain some ranking points and reach the semis.
The final semifinal spot should come down to a battle of big servers in the quarterfinals. Ivo Karlovic faces the all-courter Andreas Seppi in round 1 and he should be able to find consistency and serve past him, and Jan-Lennard Struff or Sergiy Stakhovsky in his first two matches. Struff qualified and has two challenger titles and a semifinal as of late, so his form has been excellent at a lower level. JL has always been a good challenger tour player but hasn’t quite made the jump to ATP tennis on a regular basis, the Karlovic serve should prove to be too much.
Look for John Isner to join Karlovic in the quarters by ousting the in-form Kenny De Schepper and then the struggling Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis should get his first match win in months by defeating ATP main draw débutante Lucas Miedler, a 19 year old Austrian who hasn’t even reached the challenger tour level yet, but came through qualifying.
Isner is 7-3 in his last 10 matches, and those three losses all came at the hands of top 10 players. The match with Karlovic should come down to just a few points, but I give him the edge to reach the semis.
Struff is just 4-17 at the main tour level this year but he’s 16-2 since the US Open and in fantastic form at the Challenger Tour level. JL reached the quarterfinals in Vienna last year and posted two ATP semifinals indoors as well (Marseille and Metz). He’s got all the shotmaking ability needed to excel, but his mental game is rather weak. Should Ivo Karlovic and Isner slip up, Struff could find his way to the semifinals of an ATP tournament for the third time in his career.
Predictions
semis Ferrer d. Tsonga
Isner d. Anderson
Ferrer leads the h2h with Tsonga 3-1 and should be fresher than his rival in this semifinal. Ferru already took the title indoors in Kuala Lumpur, and he should reach another final this Fall in Vienna, reprising his result last year.
Isner tends to have the matchup edge with Anderson and his form has been good.
final Ferrer d. Isner
Ferrer is 5-1 in the h2h against Isner and should be highly motivated to capture another ATP title.
ATP Stockholm
IF Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
Stockholm, Sweden
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €537,050
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Richard Gasquet (11)
3: Gilles Simon (14)
4: Bernard Tomic (20)
Stockholm boasts a quality field for an ATP 250 tournament with four top 20 names.
First round matchups to watch:
Benjamin Becker vs. John Millman
Becker has caught fire this Fall on indoor hard, the offensive baseliner reached the final of the Mons challenger and the semifinals in Kuala Lumpur for an overall 9-3 record since the US Open. Previously in a cold slump, he’s back playing crafty tennis and could be a threat in Stockholm. John Millman qualified for Beijing and upset Tommy Robredo, the Australian has the talent to be an ATP level player but he’s still seeking a breakthrough, and winning this match would help. Look for Becker to advance and maintain his hot streak.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Denis Kudla
Fernando Verdasco has lost three straight and could be in for an upset defeat at the hands of the dynamic ball striker Denis Kudla. Kudla went 7-2 on the USTA Pro Circuit after the US Open and is now returning to the ATP main draw level in Stockholm. It’s been a career year for Kudla, and look for him to add to that with a win over the declining Verdasco.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
The talented young gun Kokkinakis is seeking his 12th ATP tour level win this season and could break out of a cold slump with a win over Chardy, a big hitter who is capable of playing well indoors. Chardy lost to Kokkinakis on grass earlier this season and has lost two straight matches himself. I have Kokkinakis pulling off the upset.
The defending and two-time Stockholm champion Tomas Berdych will open with the Alex Zverev/Mikael Ymer winner. Ymer is the younger brother of the better known Elias Ymer and gets a main draw wild card. His ATP debut will take place against a fellow young gun who is seeking to snap a four match losing streak. Zverev should fall to the Shenzen champion and Shanghai quarterfinalist Berdych in round 2.
Look for Berdych to face another former Stockholm champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarterfinals. A struggling Dimitrov opens with a qualifier, and then is likely to face the retiring Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen gets a wild card and is ending his ATP career in Stockholm after a solid career as Finland’s #1 tennis player. The speedy defensively minded veteran opens with Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, who has been on fire on the clay court challenger tour. Nemo has lost four straight, and Dimitrov is far better at this point in their careers.
Berdych beat Dimitrov in the Stockholm final last year and given Dimitrov’s poor form this season the Czech has the edge to reach the semifinals.
Shanghai quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic will open with either Sam Querrey or Marcos Baghdatis. Querrey leads the h2h 3-0 over Baghdatis, and Tomic should have the edge in his section to reach another ATP quarterfinal. Trouble should await at that stage though, as Becker/Millman or Gilles Muller/qualifier are the options. Muller has an ATP quarterfinal and a semifinal this Fall and is a solid indoor player, as is Becker. The pair of veterans have met just once before and Becker came out on top. I have that result repeating itself and a Tomic vs. Becker quarterfinal, in which Tomic should have the edge.
Bottom Half:
Richard Gasquet should cruise through his section of the draw and power his way to the semifinals. Neither Steve Darcis, or a struggling Adrian Mannarino, look to be threatening in his first match and he’ll have a decided edge over the Chardy/Kokkinakis winner in the quarters. The other option in this section is the winner of Federico Delbonis/qualifier, and Delbonis much prefers clay.
Gilles Simon could make it an all-French semifinal against Gasquet if he can beat Leo Mayer/qualifier and likely the winner of Jack Sock vs. Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Sock faces dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta first up, and then the Verdasco/Kudla winner. On Simon’s end, Mayer is struggling, and Kudla beat Sock the last time they played. Simon is 7-3 in his last 10 matches and should beat Kudla in the quarters.
Either Becker or Gilles Muller could get through to the semifinals over Tomic and possibly give Berdych/Dimitrov problems as well in the semifinals. Becker, even at his age, still has a quality serve and plays smart, aggressive tennis indoors. His back injury seems to have sorted itself out and he’s back cranking on the ball from both wings.
Predictions
semis Berdych d. Tomic
Gasquet d. Simon
Berdych is 4-0 in the h2h against Tomic and has beaten him twice this season. Given his good record in Stockholm, he should prevail once more. Gasquet is 6-1 in the h2h against Simon and won a pair of matches in Shanghai to show form.
final Berdych d. Gasquet
Berdych is 2-1 against Gasquet this year, and was 1-1 against him last season. It’s a close h2h and a difficult match to predict, but Berdych’s better form gives him the advantage.
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: $698,325
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (12)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
3: Viktor Troicki (24)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (31)
With just one top 20 player, Moscow has the weakest field of the tournaments this week.
Kukushkin has had success in Moscow before and he posted a quarterfinal in Kuala Lumpur. Rublev by contrast has lost three straight, but the teenager is the great white hope for Russian men’s tennis and will have all eyes on him at a home tournament. Rublev is plenty talented, but with his recent run of poor form, I have Kukushkin winning this match and schooling the youngster.
Simone Bolelli vs. Lucas Pouille
Bolelli leads the h2h against the young gun Pouille 3-0 and he’s 8-4 since the US Open. Pouille by contrast has lost three straight matches since reaching the quarterfinals in St. Petersburg. Pouille has a great forehand and the ability to notch a win in this one, but a wiser Bolelli should defeat him.
Top Half:
Defending champion Marin Cilic should blaze through to the semifinals. Cilic opens with the winner of Aljaz Bedene/Denis Istomin, and then should face Rublev/Kukushkin in the quarters, as Radu Albot/Andrey Kuznetsov is the only player that stands in their way. Istomin just won a challenger title and should beat Bedene, but Cilic is 6-3 since the US Open and should move that to 8-3 with wins over Istomin and Kukushkin. He’s by far the best player in his section and just beat Kukushkin at the US Open.
Former champion Viktor Troicki is just 2-3 since the US Open, but wild card Cem Ilkel, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili are unlikely to oust him in the opening round. Gabashvili is a streaky player with talent, but like Troicki he seems to have lost his way right now. I have Troicki going out to Borna Coric in the quarterfinals, after Coric defeats Evgeny Donskoy and Ricardas Berankis (Berankis opens with Malek Jaziri). Coric has the most talent in this section and has been battling at the ATP level while Donkoy, Berankis, and Jaziri have all been on the challenger tour (and done well at that level). Berankis is a potential dark horse in this section if his solid ball striking pays off.
Bottom Half:
St. Petersburg semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut plays well in Russia, and he should use his forehand to once more excel indoors and defeat Marsel Ilhan/qualifier, and then setup a meeting with either Joao Sousa or the Bolelli/Pouille winner in the quarters. Sousa is one of the better indoor specialists in the game and after Daniel Gimeno-Traver he’ll face Bolelli/Pouille. I have the St. Petersburg finalist Sousa snapping a losing streak and beating Bolelli (who he beat in St. Petersburg), and Bautista Agut for a spot in the semifinals. His game is well suited for this venue.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with Mikhail Youzhny/qualifier. Youzhny is a horrific 9-23 at the ATP level this year while Kohlschreiber was a semifinalist in Metz and should at least make a quarterfinal in this one. A qualifier has a fantastic chance to make the quarterfinals opposite Kohli. Pablo Cuevas opens with a qualifier, as does Robin Haase, and they both prefer a surface other than indoor hard. I have the qualifiers winning those round 1 matches, and then Kohlschreiber beating a qualifier for a spot in the semis.
Berankis has the talented needed to get through Coric and his weak early section, and then give Cilic a test in the semifinals. The former top junior is undersized for the ATP game but he’s a solid ball striker, and still has a lot of intangible talent, even though his pro career has been a disappointment thus far.
Predictions
semis Cilic d. Coric
Kohlschreiber d. Sousa
Cilic and Kohlschreiber should be strong favorites to meet each other in the final.
final Cilic d. Kohlschreiber
Kohli leads the h2h with Cilic 5-3, but I feel Cilic is the better player right now and will find a way to win and repeat as champion.
Top Ten Players Murray, Berdych and Cilic Claim ATP Titles
ATP Vienna
Andy Murray continued his strong run of play to finish out the 2014 season, as the Scotsman toppled fellow top 10 player David Ferrer 5-7 6-2 7-5 in a Murray-coaster final in the Austrian capital. The title is the second for Murray this season, and both of his ATP titles this year have come at the 250 level after the US Open, the other of course in Shenzen last month.
Ferrer served for the match in the third set, but could not finish the job, and Murray had a late push to win.
Murray bolstered his claim to one of the 8 World Tour Final spots with wins over Vasek Pospisil, JL Struff and Viktor Troicki to reach the final this week. He appeared comfortable throughout as he didn’t drop a set before the final.
Ferrer continues to befuddle fans and pundits alike with his topsy-turvy form. He actually played quite well this week, scoring wins over Tobias Kamke and Ivo Karlovic without dropping a set, and then winning a third set tiebreak against Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the final.
The Austrian fans were able to celebrate one of their own lifting a trophy this week, as Jurgen Melzer, and his veteran pal Philipp Petzschner defeated Andre Begemann and Julian Knowles in the doubles final. Both pairings were made up of an Austrian and a German.
ATP Stockholm
Tomas Berdych also claimed a 250 title as expected this week. The in-form Czech won a hard fought match with Grigor Dimitrov, prevailing 5-7 6-4 6-4, and in the process preventing Dimitrov from repeating as the Stockholm champion. The match could have perhaps ended in two sets, but Berdych couldn’t finish off the first set and Dimitrov had a late charge to take it. Berdy was much better late in the second and third sets and that was enough to get him through.
The path to a second career Stockholm title for Berdych ran through Dustin Brown, Marius Copil and Matthias Bachinger this week, all without dropping a set as the Czech number one is serving lights out at the moment.
Dimitrov beat Teymuraz Gabashvili, Jack Sock in a 3 set comeback, and Bernard Tomic to reach the final this week.
Eric Butorac and Raven Klaasen defeated Treat Huey and Jack Sock in the doubles final.
ATP Moscow
Marin Cilic laid claim to his twelfth career ATP 250 level title in Moscow, and he completed the trio of top 10 winners on the ATP tour this week. The Croat #1 defeated Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4 6-4 in the final and in the process qualified for the World Tour Finals.
Cilic did not have smooth sailing to the final, as he needed 3 sets against Evgeny Donskoy in his first match, and against an in form Mikhail Kukushkin in the semifinals, but along with dispatching Tommy Robredo in the quarters, he did reach the final and gave RBA few opportunities to win the match.
Bautista Agut, who has had a tremendous season in his own right, was a well-deserved finalist, and this year he has cemented himself as one of the top 5 Spanish players on tour. The Spaniard with the powerful forehand defeated Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Groth, Ricardas Berankis and his bad blood rival Ernests Gulbis without dropping a set to reach the final.
Frantisek Cermak and Jiri Vesely combined to win the doubles title over the Aussies Sam Groth and Chris Guccione.
2014 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews, Picks Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
With just three weeks left in the ATP World Tour Season, the race is on for the final World Tour Final spots, while most other players on tour are seeking to boost their year-end ranking by earning some late season ranking spots. There are three 250 level indoor hard court events in Europe this week and here is a preview of each one.
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (7)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (10)
3: Kevin Anderson (16)
4: Alex Dolgopolov (24)
Stockholm attracts three top 20 players and it’s a solid field for a 250 level event.
Berdych and Dimitrov are in contention for the World Tour Finals.
First Round matchups to watch:
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Adrian Mannarino
Baghdatis had sustained periods of strong play this summer but he has not been healthy since the US Open, and he is looking to take his aggressive game indoors and enjoy success in Stockholm. He starts with the versatile Frenchman Mannarino, who has done very well at the challenger level on hard courts, but has struggled translating that success to the ATP level this year. This is a challenger-level round 1 matchup, and I think Mannarino will sneak through. The two veterans have never met before in a tournament match.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
The veteran Frenchman Chardy will take on the 18-year-old Swede Ymer, who gets a wildcard in a home event for him. Ymer is the most promising young Swede and he played reasonably well recently in a trio of USTA Pro Circuit Events. He scored two wins, and pushed the American trio of Sam Querrey, Denis Kudla, and Rhyne Williams to three sets in each tournament. Chardy should prevail, but it’s possible Ymer could earn his second career ATP main draw win this week.
Top Half:
Former Stockholm Champion Tomas Berdych opens with a qualifier or Swedish wild card Christian Lindell. Berdych went 6-2 on the Asian swing, and appears to be playing well at the moment with his only losses to Djokovic and the in-form Gilles Simon. Look for him to ease his way into the semifinals, after defeating Joao Sousa, the number 8 seed, in the quarterfinals. Sousa has lost two straight matches but he is known to play well on indoor hard, including Metz recently where he made the final, and his competition en route to the quarters, a qualifier, and Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier, is far from imposing.
Alex Dologopolov gets a bye, but he is 0-2 since returning to the ATP tour from a knee injury, and he could suffer a loss to the Baghdatis/Mannarino winner. Dolgo showed major improvement between his Tokyo and Shanghai losses though, and I think he has just enough game to reach the quarterfinals, given Baggy and Mannarino are both erratic. That said, Donald Young or Igor Sijsling have great shots at making the semifinals this week. Young opens with 5 seed Leo Mayer, who is far more comfortable on clay (though he nearly beat Roger Federer in Shanghai), and Sijsling opens with a qualifier. That said, both Young and Sijsling are also struggling: Sijsling has been far from impressive indoors on the challenger circuit in Europe, and Young lost to journeyman Malek Jaziri in Shanghai. Given Sijsling’s previous successes on indoor hard, I have him beating a qualifier, Young and then Dolgopolov (or even Baghdatis/Mannarino) to reach the semifinals in what is a toss-up section.
Bottom Half:
Defending champion Grigor Dimitrov opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili or Alejandro Falla. Neither of those players are playing good tennis at the moment and Dimitrov should set up a quarterfinal meeting with Chardy/Ymer or Jack Sock/Andrey Golubev. Sock just beat Golubev in Tokyo, and he has another great chance at a strong week, after winning consecutive matches in both Tokyo, where he beat Dolgopolov, and Shanghai, where he upset Kei Nishikori. Dimitrov, who is a year older than Sock, has never played him before, and I think Sock will put up a competitive showing, but I have Grisha into the semifinals yet again. He lost in the second round of Shanghai after making the quarters in Beijing.
Kevin Anderson is set to face Bernard Tomic in round 2. Tomic plays Swedish wild card Patrik Rosenholm in round 1. Tomic has beaten Anderson twice on hard courts, both times in 3 sets: once in 2013 in Sydney, and the other time in Shanghai in 2011. Tomic qualified in Shanghai, and Anderson went just 2-2 on the Asian swing, with losses to Chardy and Mikhail Kukushkin. Anderson has been more successful indoors than Tomic, but not by a lot, which is surprising given Anderson is a lanky big server. I have Tomic sneaking through to the quarterfinals in my bracket. At that stage he could face 7 seed Fernando Verdasco, Marinko Matosevic, Albert Ramos, or most likely, in my estimation, Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen has always been a top performer indoors and he reached the semis in Kuala Lumpur. He also has beaten Verdasco before on hard courts, twice in fact, once in 2005, and once in 2013. Verdasco won a 3 setter in Stockholm last year, and once more indoors in Rotterdam in 2008, but I’m not very convinced by his form right now. He is just 2-3 in his last five matches, though two of those losses are to Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic. He still seems a bit lost at the moment.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
I have the unseeded Igor Sijsling in the semis this week and the unseeded Tomic in the quarters, but neither of them really have the potential to make the final, in my estimation. Nieminen, on the other hand, should reach the semis, assuming he can upset Verdasco, and Verdasco may even lose to Matosevic in round 1. Nieminen-Tomic or Nieminen-Anderson would also be a tough contest, but Jarkko should get his upset shot against Dimitrov in the semis. He is 2-0 career against the Bulgarian, with both of his wins coming indoors. Dimitrov is much improved since those matches were played, but the h2h still is what it is.
Predictions
Semis:
Berdych d. Sijsling
Dimitrov d. Nieminen
Berdych should cruise to the final, barely facing any competition, given the weak top half of the draw. He crushed Sijsling in Davis Cup earlier this year, and the result should be the same no matter who he faces in the semis.
I have Dimitrov beating Nieminen since he’s a superior talent at this point, and he cares about retaining the Stockholm crown.
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
Dimitrov and Berdych have split h2h meetings this year, both times on clay, and Dimitrov was 2-0 before that, but both of those hard court meetings went to a decisive third set. After watching them both in the Asian swing, I think everyone would agree Berdych is playing superior tennis right now, and that should be enough to win him his second Stockholm title.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Berdych d. Dolgopolov
Dimitrov d. Tomic
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (5)
2: Andy Murray (11)
3: Feliciano Lopez (21)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
Murray and Ferrer are fighting to make the World Tour Finals and they highlight the field in Vienna, which is balanced otherwise.
First Round matchups to watch:
Carlos Berlocq vs. (WC)Gerald Melzer
Berlocq is the far more accomplished player, but he’s very poor on indoor hard, and the younger Melzer won a couple of matches at the Mons challenger on indoor hard. The wild card is looking for his first career ATP main draw victory yet again and he should be motivated. Berlocq is likely to advance, but he is coming off playing clay court challengers, and this one has some upset potential.
Martin Klizan vs. Benjamin Becker
Two in-form players will do battle in a match that I am really looking forward to. Klizan is 8-3 over his last 11 matches, and he made round 2 in Shanghai after reaching the semis in Beijing. He lost to David Ferrer in a competitive 3 set battle in Shanghai that he very much should have won. Becker reached the semis in Tokyo after reaching the quarters in Kuala Lumpur and he pushed Kei Nishikori to 3 sets in Tokyo, very nearly pulling off a massive upset. With both players playing some of their best tennis all year right now, and given they both have aggressive playstyles, this one should be full of highlights. It’s very hard to predict and both are solid indoors, but I have Klizan sneaking through in 3 sets because I feel his game at a peak level is better than what Becker brings to the table.
Thomaz Bellucci vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Bellucci just beat Mathieu in the Orleans Challenger semifinals a couple of weeks ago, which was surprisingly their first head to head meeting, though they have both played on tour for a while. Bellucci is on a two match losing streak, while Mathieu lost in round 2 of the Rennes challenger, and they have both been playing indoor hard courts at the challenger level in Europe, rather than going to Asia for ATP competition this Fall. Given PHM has nominally been superior on indoor hard over the course of his career, I have him through to round 2 but it could go either way.
Top Half:
David Ferrer will need to be on upset alert for his first contest against either Simone Bolelli or Tobias Kamke. Both are competent on indoor hard and Ferrer is just 2-4 in his last six matches. He did manage to win consecutive matches in Shanghai, including a 3 set win over Andy Murray, and he’s fighting to make the World Tour Finals, thus I do have him through to the quarters after a test from Bolelli. Bolelli has a 2-0 h2h against Kamke and more peak potential than the journeyman German who has been plying his trade at the indoor hard court tournaments in Europe this fall. Look for a Ferrer vs. Ivo Karlovic quarterfinal. The big serving Croat made the third round in Shanghai, upsetting Marin Cilic en route, and he broke a poor run of form he was having for quite some time. His first opponent is Federico Delbonis, and then a qualifier or Jurgen Melzer, the home favorite, is to follow. Melzer is a two-time champion in Vienna, and he’s a career 5-1 against Karlovic, but he’s been struggling all year and he’s ranked outside the top 100. Though he played alright in Tokyo, his form has to be suspect right now, and that’s why I have Karlovic beating him. Ferrer is 2-1 against Karlovic, and I feel he’s motivated enough to the reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with the Gerald Melzer/Berlocq winner. Kohli is struggling, and he suffered a shoulder injury in Metz from which he may not have fully recovered. However, barring a big upset, Kohli should reach the quarterfinals before falling to Klizan. Other potential quarterfinal opponents are Becker and local hope Dominic Thiem. Thiem opens with the pedestrian Robin Haase and then will face the Becker/Klizan winner. Of course, that should be a great match, and I feel form favors Klizan, or Becker, to reach the quarterfinals, though Thiem made round 2 in Shanghai and is far from a pushover. I have Klizan over Kohlschreiber given the form factor at the moment.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray will open with Vasek Pospisil or a qualifier and he very well could fall to the Canadian, who played reasonably well in Asia without any deep runs to show for it. Murray is 9-2 since the US Open though, and he has not lost to a non-top 20 player since the grass court season. In fact, he has just three losses to a player ranked outside the top 20 in 2014, which has not been one of his best seasons by any measure.
Look for Murray to cruise into the semis if he can get past Vashy. His quarterfinal opponent, one of JL Struff/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Sergiy Stakhovsky/qualifier is far from imposing and he should not have any trouble. Stako is playing well at the moment: he won the Orleans challenger on indoor hard and fell in the finals of the Tashkent challenger on hard courts last week. However, he is 0-3 career against Struff, with all those matches taking place this year or last, and the German should be fresher for this tournament. Struff was a semifinalist in Metz and should have a good week.
Shanghai semifinalist Feliciano Lopez will look to make a quick turnaround and continue his fine play in Vienna. The Spaniard will open with the Mathieu/Bellucci winner and unless he’s worn out he should setup a meeting with Lukas Rosol in the quarters. Rosol opens with Tashkent champion Lukas Lacko, who should be tired, and then Victor Estrella or a qualifier. Rosol has lost six straight matches, but he actually has a rather easy path to the quarters. Mathieu/Bellucci will have an outside shot at making a run this week, but signs point to Lopez making the semis in this rather weak section.
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan can play some great tennis when his game is clicking, through his path of Becker, Thiem/Haase and Kohlschreiber, before a likely meeting with Ferrer. Ferrer in the semis is far from easy, but he’s talented enough to survive the gauntlet. He nearly beat Ferrer in Shanghai, but he couldn’t put the match away, and I don’t think he will beat Ferrer this time either, but I’m sure he’s hungry for revenge.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Klizan
Murray d. Lopez
Ferrer just survived a battle with Klizan in Shanghai, and Murray has never lost to Lopez in nine career meetings, including two this season.
Final:
Murray d. Ferrer
Ferrer did just beat Murray in Shanghai, but I chalk that 3 set loss up to fatigue more than anything else, and the Scot should be motivated to take this title. It could be a close match, but I’m going with Murray as champion this week.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Ferrer d. Thiem
Pospisil d. Lacko
Final:
Ferrer d. Pospisil
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: $776,620
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (8)
2: Marin Cilic (9)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Fabio Fognini (17)
Cilic and Raonic are both in contention to make the World Tour Finals and like the other two tournaments this week, it is a balanced field in Moscow.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Andreas Seppi vs. Dusan Lajovic
The rising Serb Lajovic will have a nice upset chance against Seppi, who is a former champion in Moscow. Seppi has not had the best of seasons and he hasn’t played great on indoor hard at the ATP level the past two seasons. Seppi has a h2h win on clay and Lajovic has yet to have sustained success indoors, but I do see this match going 3 sets. I have Seppi getting through in my bracket but the upset possibility is there.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (WC)Karen Khachanov
The 18 year old Khachanov made a run to the quarterfinals last year in Moscow and now he has some major points to defend against Kukushkin. Kukushkin played well in Asia, going 4-2 overall, with wins over Kevin Anderson and Tommy Robredo in Shanghai, before narrowly losing to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets. Khachanov, who has yet to really break through and find the consistency he needs to compete with the top players, comes off qualifying for the Rennes challenger, where he lost in round 2. Kukushkin could win this comfortably but Khachanov will have home support, and it should at least be an enjoyable match.
Top Half:
Milos Raonic opens with a qualifier, then most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters. RBA has Andrey Kuznetsov, a home favorite, up first, then Sam Groth or wild card Andrey Rublev in his path. Rublev is currently the world number 1 junior player, and at 16, he’s making his ATP main draw debut at a home tournament in Moscow. Groth has a big serve but little else going for him, and Rublev will at least have a chance at getting his maiden ATP win. RBA comes off the third round in Shanghai and he has never played Raonic before. Raonic retired most likely due to fatigue, or perhaps the flu, in round 1 in Shanghai, but he should be fresh and fit here in Moscow. Given it’s an indoor hard court tournament, Raonic should cruise to the semis if healthy.
Ernests Gulbis is struggling: the Latvian appears to be carrying a shoulder injury and I’m honestly not sure why he’s playing Moscow nor why he played in Shanghai last week. He’s visibly injured and it’s affecting his game. He should fall to Jiri Vesely, who opens with dirtballer Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in round 2. Vesely has made two consecutive indoor hard court semifinals in Orleans and Mons, and he’s playing well right now. It should be a Vesely vs. Seppi/Lajovic or Ivan Dodig quarterfinal. Dirtballer Pere Riba is also in this section, the first opponent for Dodig. Dodig reversed a previously 0-4 h2h against Seppi across surfaces and beat him in Toronto in 3 sets this year, thus their match in Moscow is an unpredictable affair, should it occur. I have Dodig through to face Vesely, but I am not entirely confident.
Bottom Half:
Marin Cilic will open with Dudi Sela or Evgeny Donskoy. Sela is 2-0 against the underachieving Russian, so he should get through to round 2. Look for Cilic to face Tommy Robredo in the quarterfinals. Robredo will face Malek Jaziri or Filip Krajinovic in round 2 before Cilic. Robredo and Cilic have both lost two straight matches after previously playing well, but the h2h does favor Cilic who is 2-1 on hard courts and 2-1 against the Spaniard this season. Given the indoor hard court surface, it should be Cilic in the semis.
Fabio Fognini lost to a Chinese wild card in Shanghai and he really appears to be off the rails right now. I have him losing to Kukushkin in round 2, and his lack of focus and effort is shining through at the moment. Look for a Kukushkin vs. Mikhail Youzhny quarterfinal, assuming the former Moscow champ can get past a qualifier, and Juan Monaco/Paolo Lorenzi. Youzhny just beat Monaco en route to the Shanghai quarterfinals, perhaps his best result all season, a year in which he has fallen from the top 30 and struggled with consistency. Kukushkin and Youzhny have split indoor hard court meetings on Russian soil and they both had good runs in Shanghai. It’s a hard to predict matchup, given how poor Youzhny has been this season by and large, but he is playing at a tournament he normally does well at so look for the Colonel to advance.
Dark Horse: Jiri Vesely
Kukushkin will also have a chance to do well this week, but Vesely should make the semis with wins over DGT, an injured Gulbis, and Seppi/Dodig/Lajovic. Vesely vs. Seppi and Vesely vs. Dodig would be hard to predict, but the young Czech has a game built to do well on indoor hard and I feel he’s motivated and in the right sort of form to do well.
Predictions
Semis:
Raonic d. Vesely
Cilic d. Youzhny
Unless something is wrong with Raonic, he should make the final this week comfortably enough. He crushed Vesely on clay, his weakest surface, at the French Open this year and he’s motivated to make the World Tour Final.
Cilic has won the last 3 meetings with Youzhny, and 4 of the last 5, after the Russian started with a strong h2h advantage. This includes their last three indoor meetings, two of which went to a decisive third set, and though Cilic has lost two straight, he should recover and reach the final, given Youzhny has been poor most of the season.
Final:
Raonic d. Cilic
Raonic and Cilic have a 1-1 hard court h2h and Cilic won indoors in Valencia in 2011. Both guys have had excellent seasons, and Cilic has perhaps had the higher peak given he won the US Open, while Raonic has just been a very consistent top 10 player in a variety of tournaments and across surfaces. He plays some of his best tennis indoors and that should be enough to give him the edge.
Tennis Atlantic 