Formerly top 25 Frenchman Benoit Paire, now 26, captured his maiden ATP title on clay in Bastad, Sweden as the talent, known for his erratic and streaky play, caught fire this week. Paire beat Spanish veteran Tommy Robredo 7-6(7) 6-3 as he saved the two break points he faced, holding serve all match as his elite backhand pushed the Robredo back.
It’s been a long road back to the top 50 for Paire, but hopefully he’ll find staying power this time, as his abilities were never in doubt. He started the week with a straight set win over Markus Eriksson and then he really picked up form, upsetting top seed David Goffin, and Denis Istomin with ease before shocking Pablo Cuevas in straights to reach the final. Paire was dominant all week, not dropping a set, and still poses a dark horse threat in ATP events to come if he continues to play like he did in Bastad.
Robredo played well to reach the final as his #2 seed would suggest, he didn’t drop a set against Albert Ramos, Paul-Henri Mathieu or the young gun Alex Zverev en oute to the final. At 33 Robredo remains in the top 25 and continues to be a threat to win smaller tournaments.
In doubles Jeremy Chardy and the serve and volleyer Lukasz Kubot won a close doubles final over Colombian’s Robert Farah and Juan Sebastian Cabal.
Dominic Thiem captured his second title of the season, and the second of his career (both on clay, both ATP 250 events, the other coming in Nice), with an underdog run in Umag, Croatia. The talented Austrian had to battle hard this week, and his 6-4 6-1 victory over Joao Sousa, who featured in his second ATP final this season, was perhaps his easiest win of the week.
Thiem won his first two matches in part by retirement, Dusan Lajovic decided he couldn’t continue with Thiem up 6-1 3-1, and his countryman Andreas Haider-Maurer collapsed up a set and retired 6-7 6-1 3-0 down. Thiem then had one more tough task ahead of him to reach the final, the talented Gael Monfils. Monfils got off to a great start in the match and was flawlessly transitioning from defense to offense in the first set, however Thiem turned it around and eventually won 1-6 6-3 6-1 in a rollercoaster match that is common for Monfils. The Austrian with his extremely visible young gun hair cut continues to rise up the ATP rankings and has especially shown his abilities on clay.
Sousa the Portugese #1 caught fire this week like he did in Geneva previously on clay, he rolled past Toni Androic and Andreas Seppi, neither of whom put up much resistance then upset Fabio Fognini in a third set tiebreak and Roberto Bautista Agut from a set down. He likewise has shown talent, but consistency will be required fo h im to reach the next level.
Maximo Gonzalez and Andre Sa took the doubles title over Mariusz Frystenberg and Santiago Gonzalez.
Bernard Tomic put his personal problems aside and won a deserved second title in Bogota, Tomic was the most talented player on paper in the field, and he continues to demonstrate solid, and surprisingly consistent play on hard courts this year. Tomic put on a serving clinic in the final against Adrian Mannarino winning it 6-1 3-6 6-2, as his game drifted in the second set but otherwise he controlled the match on his racquet against the in-form Frenchman as they both played junkball tennis.
Bernie found it to be a tough go of things in his opening match as Adrian Menendez-Maceiras took the first set, but he bounced back, proving he’s not “Tomic the tank engine” as much this year, winning the next two frames and following that match up with a routine win over Tatsuma Ito. He then played a nailbiter of a match against the serve and volleyer Michael Berrer, Berrer took a second set tiebreak to force a third set, and then pushed the match to a third set tiebreak that Tomic took 7-3.
Mannarino beat Rajeev Ram in straights, Malek Jaziri in 3 sets, after a breadstick first set and defending finalist Ivo Karlovic in two impressive tiebreaks. The Frenchman has had a career year this year and is rising up the rankings under the radar, he’s also fun to watch.
Organizers decided to start matches at 5 pm because of the heat so I arrived a bit earlier because they arranged a little press conference with Toni Androic, Lawrence Frankopan, Ronald Korotaj and Lord Nicholas Windsor. During the conference, Androic said something like, this year “ATP Umag” should have been named “Survivor” as the TV reality show because it’s really tough for players to compete under this sun.
Lord Nicholas Windsor (his father is the Sir that lifts the trophy at the end of Wimbledon) is enjoying his stay here and he loves Croatia as his wife was born here.
After this quick press, there was a models show organized by Lotto This video shows here you some nice models.
Later I came to the courts, finding Monfils practicing doubles with Mamata, a pretty unknown guy who he is playing doubles with here. Gael looked very relaxed, but training was very serious.
Gael Monfils practiced doubles with this guy that is supposed to be his doubles partner here: Paterne Mamata. pic.twitter.com/h24OmDEWt5
Finally, last round qualifying matches started and I decided to attend Bagnis-Trevisan as I thought this could have been a close and entertaining match.
Trevisan def. Bagnis 76 16 61
Bagnis was too erratic during first set but Trevisan had to dictate rallies with forehand because when the Argentinean was hitting cross forehand on his backhand he was often in trouble. Like yesterday, Trevisan played a great tiebreak again but it has to be said that the end was quite shocking: Bagnis served 3-6 on tiebreak, failed first serve, got angry with the umpire because ballkids were moving and hit the second serve underarm superflat on purpose in the middle of the net. What a way to end a set!
Trevisan had a break point in the first game of the second set but Bagnis saved it and then cruised, playing way better so I left the court to attend other matches. I came back with Trevisan 2-0 up in the third and the Italian was playing very solid again, serving very well and hitting huge forehands. Bagnis wasn’t playing his best, but credit to the Italian who also served a 222 kmh last serve of the match.
Fabbiano def. Gonzalez 64 64
I could watch only the end of the match, as when I arrived the Argentinean was having a medical time out for a problem to his right foot. It didn’t’ appear to be a bad injury but Fabbiano stayed focused and played really solid tennis, very deep with no unforced errors. He was so happy in the end as an ATP qualification for a player with his ranking is always a nice achievement.
Trinker def. Melzer 76 62
I arrived here on 76 31* and they were playing a very long game, with Melzer fist-pumping after every break point saved, but yesterday he didn’t serve well. Melzer looked completely dead and spent after he was broken and Trinker held very easily on *4-1. I expected Melzer to be broken here because he was really walking on court, but Trinker was not able to put a single return on court. He then held with ace, ace, ace, service winner.
Fognini def. Vesely 64 64
Night session match was the highlight of the day: Fognini-Vesely.
Umag is quite close to Italy (45 min by car from the border) so Fabio has a lot of Italians fans here and he is loved everywhere he plays because he is one of the much entertaining players on court.
From the very first rallies, you could notice that Fognini was quite relaxed and focused and he had the full control of the match. It was just a matter of time for him to take the lead. He complained with the umpire for the court conditions at the baseline (and he was right) but he never got angry as the court was adjusted during next changeover. He was almost always dictating the rallies and Vesely had a tough time looking for winners. The match appeared to be almost over with Fognini leading 64 20 and 3 straight breakpoints. Vesely saved them all with some stunning winners and ‘someone’ was worried, because you never know with Fabio. He didn’t lost control of his nerves despite a probable drunk guy in the stands cheering very loudly for Vesely. Fognini took the set, 64 and the match.
I had a quick chat with Fognini’s father (Fulvio) who always gives Fabio great support and he said he was very happy with Fabio’s performance as he never looked in danger and was physically and mentally ready to play a great tournament. He was also worried when Vesely held that 0-40 and he was very satisfied with Fabio’s reaction after he lost that game.
We even talked a bit about Trevisan and Fulvio told me that when Matteo was 18 yo he was really impressive. He could hit very hard, but Fulvio said that when you are young and you are one of the best you have to do the right choices or the guys that are behind you…pass you. He was also happy for Trevisan’s qualification as the guy really deserved bigger stages than the ITF provides.
Three ATP 250s are on the docket this week, two on clay in Europe (Umag, Bastad) and the other on high altitude hard courts in Bogota as this week of tennis should be fun. Here are our experts brackets.
Umag
2015 Croatia Open Umag Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Monfils vs. Trinker, Lorenzi vs. Kohlschreiber, Thiem vs. Lajovic, Haider-Maurer vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Rosol, Sousa vs. Seppi, Coric vs. Bedene, Rublev vs. Bautista Agut Quarterfinals: Monfils vs. Kohlschreiber, Thiem vs. Haider-Maurer, Fognini vs. Sousa, Coric vs. Bautista Agut Semifinals: Monfils vs. Haider-Maurer, Fognini vs. Coric Final: Monfils vs. Coric Champion: Monfils
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Monfils vs. Trinker, Lorenzi vs. Kohlschreiber, Thiem vs. Lajovic, Haider-Maurer vs. Klizan, Vesely vs. Rosol, Sousa vs. Seppi, Coric vs. Bedene, Rublev vs. Bautista Agut Quarterfinals: Monfils vs. Kohlschreiber, Thiem vs. Klizan, Vesely vs. Seppi, Coric vs. Bautista Agut Semifinals: Monfils vs. Klizan, Seppi vs. Bautista Agut Final: Klizan vs. Bautista Agut Champion: Klizan
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Monfils vs. Trinker, Lorenzi vs. Giraldo, Thiem vs. Lajovic, Haider-Maurer vs. Klizan, Fognini vs. Rosol, Sousa vs. Seppi, Coric vs. Bedene, Rublev vs. Bautista Agut Quarterfinals: Monfils vs. Giraldo, Thiem vs. Klizan, Fognini vs. Seppi, Coric vs. Bautista Agut Semifinals: Monfils vs. Klizan, Fognini vs. Bautista Agut Final: Monfils vs. Fognini Champion: Fognini
A mixed group of champions are predicted in Umag, but Gael Monfils and Fabio Fognini are both expected to do well
Bogota
2015 Claro Open Colombia Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Karlovic vs. Riba, Roger-Vasselin vs. Groth, Mannarino vs. Falla, Millman vs. Jaziri, Berrer vs. Marchenko, Sugita vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Ito, Menendez-Maceiras vs. Tomic Quarterfinals: Karlovic vs. Groth, Mannarino vs. Millman, Berrer vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Menendez-Maceiras Semifinals: Karlovic vs. Mannarino, Estrella vs. Baghdatis Final: Karlovic vs. Baghdatis Champion: Karlovic
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Karlovic vs. Riba, Roger-Vasselin vs. Groth, Mannarino vs. Falla, Sarkissian vs. Jaziri, Ward vs. Demoliner, Barrientos vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Ito, Gonzalez vs. Tomic Quarterfinals: Karlovic vs. Groth, Falla vs. Jaziri, Ward vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Gonzalez Semifinals: Karlovic vs. Falla, Estrella vs. Baghdatis Final: Karlovic vs. Baghdatis Champion: Karlovic
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Karlovic vs. Riba, Roger-Vasselin vs. Groth, Mannarino vs. Falla, Millman vs. Jaziri, Berrer vs. Marchenko, Sugita vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Ito, Menendez-Maceiras vs. Tomic Quarterfinals: Karlovic vs. Groth, Mannarino vs. Millman, Berrer vs. Estrella, Baghdatis vs. Tomic Semifinals: Karlovic vs. Mannarino, Estrella vs. Baghdatis Final: Karlovic vs. Baghdatis Champion: Baghdatis
Ivo Karlovic and Marcos Baghdatis are strong favorites this week in Bogota
Bastad
2015 Skistar Swedish Open Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Goffin vs. Paire, Schwartzman vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Delbonis, Gimeno-Traver vs. Arnaboldi, Bellucci vs. Souza, Zverev vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Ramos vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Goffin vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Gimeno-Traver, Bellucci vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Ramos Semifinals: Goffin vs. Cuevas, Bellucci vs. Ramos Final: Goffin vs. Bellucci Champion: Goffin
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Goffin vs. Paire, Schwartzman vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Delbonis, Gimeno-Traver vs. Janowicz, Bellucci vs. Souza, Zverev vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Ramos vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Goffin vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Gimeno-Traver, Bellucci vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Robredo Semifinals: Goffin vs. Cuevas, Bellucci vs. Robredo Final: Goffin vs. Bellucci Champion: Goffin
Joe Craven’s picks
Round 2 matches: Goffin vs. Paire, Schwartzman vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Delbonis, Gimeno-Traver vs. Janowicz, Bellucci vs. Souza, Zverev vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Ramos vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Goffin vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Janowicz, Bellucci vs. Monaco, Gulbis vs. Robredo Semifinals: Verdasco vs. Cuevas, Monaco vs. Robredo Final: Cuevas vs. Monaco Champion: Cuevas
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Goffin vs. Paire, Schwartzman vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Dutra Silva, Gimeno-Traver vs. Janowicz, Bellucci vs. Lindell, Zverev vs. Monaco, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Vanni vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Goffin vs. Verdasco, Cuevas vs. Janowicz, Bellucci vs. Zverev, Chardy vs. Robredo Semifinals: Goffin vs. Cuevas, Zverev vs. Robredo Final: Cuevas vs. Robredo Champion: Cuevas
David Goffin and defending champion Pablo Cuevas are both tipped to win in Bastad, both played Davis Cup over the weekend.
Opponents Wilt as Qualifying Continues @CroatiaOpenUmag, Ballboy Caught Texting Stefano Berlincioni for Tennis Atlantic
Fognini Cincinnati (Photo: Dave Gertler)
Umag, Croatia July 19, 2015–Yesterday evening, I met Fabio Fognini’s father at the elevator and as soon as he saw me told me, “Stefano, it’s too hot here, I’m dying!” Fulvio Fognini is as funny as Fabio and he is right: Umag is really like hell these days. By the way, at the end of the day after the Ivanisevic-Coric exhibition, which was funny and had packed stands, I met Fabio playing darts with a friend of his and later, Bagnis arrived with Gonzalez!
Fabio congratulated Facundo for the Pan-Am Games gold medal and asked who were his opponents and if Argentina paid him for the medal. For the records, Fabio lost the 1st darts match and was saying “porcodiaz” (his typical expression) every three words, very funny and relaxed.
Today, matches surprisingly started at 11 am, a bit late in my opinion considering the insane heat.
Trinker def. Mitak 61 61
As expected, Trinker disposed very easily of the local wild card, who is no amateur but cannot compete at this level. The Austrian kept the focus for the whole match showing a good form again.
Gerald Melzer in action today: didn’t serve very well but was enough. He also got a warning for racquet abuse #umagpic.twitter.com/ZYn7XTYYkc
As I said in yesterdays’ report, Surchenko was absolutely not impressive yesterday but today was very pumped and played two times better than yesterday, serving much better and hitting quite hard. Melzer was a bit surprised at the beginning, but after getting broken he cruised until 6-1. He lost focus and went down 0-2 in second set, even getting a bit angry (destroyed a racquet) but managed to regroup and win quote comfortably. Not a stunning performance though.
Marcora def. Trinker 46 44 ret.
This was on paper one of the closest matches of the day. The first set was decided by a double fault of Marcora facing break point on 4-4 and he looked in control of the match, even leading by a break early in the second set. He was more solid from the baseline and very motivated, grunting loudly after every shot. In the middle of the second set, he started showing problems with his wrist/arm and began losing points with blatant errors so he decided to give up at 4-4.
Leonardi knew that his opponent would have not been so slow on court as Santiago Gonzalez yesterday and the ball speed difference was very clear from the beginning. It has to be said that Leonard played at a very decent level but Bagnis was really too much for him.
Gonzalez def. Leite 62 64
I could not watch many games of this match as I arrived in the middle of second set. Leite looked fresher and after being broken on 62 *32, he made a sign to his wife as if he was going to quit because exhausted. He kept fighting until the end of the set but was quite lucky because he managed to break Leite on 4-4 from 30-0 with the Brazilian missing a winner by one centimeter.
Trevisan def. Skugor 36 61 76
I arrived at the match at 4-1 second set and Skugor fully tanked the service game and especially the return game, not even trying to return. He was not injured though, just saving energy for the third set under Umag’s terrible Sun.
Ballkid had no balls for Trevisan because he was texting on a mobile that the guy behind him brought to him. pic.twitter.com/yprpyOL4HZ
The last set was quite entertaining with great winners from both sides as they are players who don’t like to wait for their opponent’s errors. At 3-3, Trevisan asked for a MTO because he was exhausted due to the heat and he needed more ice on his neck and head. He had a few break chances at 3-3 and he even had to save match points at 4-5. With both players almost down to no legs, the match went to a final tiebreak where Trevisan won 6 points in a row from *0-1 down, playing very aggressive and deserving the win. The Italian almost lost control of his nerves when he was serving to stay in the match because in the middle of the game, the ballkid had no balls for him to serve because he was texting on a mobile phone that a guy from the stands passed to him. A very unusual scene. He stopped texting, gave back the mobile and the guy disappeared from the stands in five seconds. Maybe some very urgent issue but still very strange.
Last little note: I attended Paolo Lorenzi practicing with Andre Sa and it was really amazing to see the intensity of Lorenzi during training.
Another day with insane heat is finished then and tomorrow, thankfully, matches will start at 5 pm.
2015 ATP Umag, Bogota, and Bastad Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Three 250 level events will take place on the ATP World Tour this week, two on clay in Umag and Bastad, both in Europe, and the other on hard courts in South America. Tennis Atlantic is pleased to provide on-site coverage of Umag this week, and here is a preview of all the ATP tennis action.
ATP Umag
2015 ATP Umag Preview
Konzum Croatia Open Umag
ATP World Tour 250
Umag, Croatia
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gael Monfils (17)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
3: Andreas Seppi (26)
4: Dominic Thiem (28)
An interesting and diverse group of seeds in Umag should make for an interesting week.
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Santiago Giraldo
Giraldo, who is surprisingly playing here instead of at home in Colombia this week after Davis Cup, has the h2h advantage in this match, but Kohlschreiber has had the superior season and should be the slight favorite to advance on clay. After a great year last year it’s been a rough go of things for Santi this year. The style matchup will be interested as the Peppo backhand goes up against the Giraldo forehand. The fact Kohli is fresher will also help.
(5)Fabio Fognini vs. Jiri Vesely
Fognini beat Vesely this year in a crazy match in Rio on clay, and now Vesely is seeking revenge. Fognini wasn’t particularly great on clay back in the spring when he wasn’t playing Rafael Nadal, but the party atmosphere in Umag will either suit him, or distract the mercurial Italian. The match should be on Fogna’s racquet, and I have him advancing.
(7)Borna Coric vs. Marcel Granollers
The Croatian young gun Coric is now seeded at his home nation tournament and he could well make some noise if he maintains his clay court form from the Spring. Granollers is a relatively pedestrian singles player these days, though clay is his best surface, and hopefully Coric will be focused enough to grab an opening round win.
Gael Monfils, the top seed, will open with either nearly retired Mikhail Youzhny or a qualifier, the Frenchman is 10-4 on clay this season and thus should smoothly reach the quarterfinals to face Giraldo/Kohlschreiber. The winner of that match will take on Paolo Lorenzi or a qualifier, and I expect a Monfils vs. Kohlschreiber quarterfinal. Monfils dominates the h2h and has a 2-0 record this year against Peppo, and thus I have him reaching the semis.
Dominic Thiem, one of the young guns in this years Umag field, comes off of two bad losses in Davis Cup play on clay against the Dutch. Thiem’s poor form appears to be mental, more than physical, but he still could be troubled by Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier in round 2. Thiem should benefit from a weak section, as his quarterfinal opponent if he beats Lajovic will be one of Pablo Carreno Busta/Martin Klizan/Andreas Haider-Maurer/qualifier. Klizan has been struggling, though he played well in Davis Cup, and Carreno Busta just took a title on the challenger tour, so I have it as a PCB vs. AHM 2nd round match (due to Klizan’s DC hangover) and then I have AHM, who did win a Davis Cup match on clay this weekend, getting through that. He’s had a deceptively good season as a dirtballer and tends to have streaky form.
For the AHM vs. Thiem All-Austrian quarterfinal, I have Haider-Maurer advancing by virtue of Thiem’s likely fatigue and poor form as the veteran should outclass the young gun.
Roberto Bautista Agut, who is 10-7 on clay in 2015, should be able to defeat the winner of Andrey Rublev/Blaz Kavcic in round 2. Rublev comes off of winning a 5th rubber to send Russia into the World Group playoffs ahead of mighty Spain but the young gun wild card could be fatigued against Kavcic, who isn’t at his best on clay. I have Rublev beating Kavcic due to surface, as he should recover quickly given his youth, but RBA should avenge the Spain defeat to reach the quarterfinals. There I’d expect him to face the home young gun Coric, who has to beat Granollers, and then Mate Delic/Aljaz Bedene in round 2. Bedene is in good form, but Coric should be the superior player.
Given it’s in Croatia, I have the young gun Coric scoring a minor upset ranking wise over RBA, who has been down this year, and reaching the semifinals.
Andreas Seppi, who has had consistent success in Umag before, will open with Joao Sousa or wild card Toni Androic, Sousa, who had a succesful Davis Cup weekend, reached a clay final before RG, and should defeat Androic, but Seppi will be a tougher opponent. That said he’s a poor 0-2 on clay this year while Sousa is 8-7, and I have the Portugese scoring an upset to reach the quarterfinals. Fognini/Vesely will face Damir Dzumhur/Lukas Rosol round 2, Rosol is probably a slight favorite to reach round 2, but I’d figure Fognini would be in the quarters if he doesn’t implode.
Fognini has a clay court h2h win over Sousa, and he’s the better clay courter, but once again it depends on his head as to whether he will reach the semifinals and beyond.
Joao Sousa, and Jiri Vesely could both make runs this week, but AHM is actually a small favorite to reach the quarters in my book. The 28 year old has semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this year, and Umag should be another place he takes advantage of a weak draw and bursts through to the semis as long as Thiem struggles as expected.
Predictions
Semis:
Monfils d. Haider-Maurer
Coric d. Fognini
Monfils beat AHM in Stuttgart this year on grass and he’s the better player all around, thus I expect him, or Kohlschreiber, to reach the final. Last year in Umag Fognini beat Coric, but given their recent form I have that result reversing itself and Coric reaching an ATP final on home soil.
Final:
Monfils d. Coric
Monfils and Coric have never met, but if the Frenchman reaches the final he should be the favorite given his abilities.
Claro Open Colombia
ATP World Tour 250
Bogota, Colombia
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: $683,515
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (24)
2: Bernard Tomic (25)
3: Adrian Mannarino (35)
4: Victor Estrella (43)
Once again Bogota lacks a big name, or even a top 20 player, making it one of the weaker 250 level events on tour.
First round matchups to watch:
Alejandro Falla vs. Rajeev Ram
There are a host of weak, and disinteresting R1 matchups in Bogota, but this one has the potential to be worth a watch. Ram, normally a doubles specialist these days, and a journeyman in singles, once again found his serve and volley form on grass in Newport and took the title. Falla is playing on home soil and tends to do well with the altitude. His form isn’t great, but he does well in Bogota, and with that in mind he probably will defeat a tired Ram, unless his serve and volley works again.
Top Half:
Ivo Karlovic has a title in Bogota and is 8-1 at the tournament, his big serve consistently seems to find success in the quick conditions, and he should serve past the winner of Pere Riba/Daniel Elahi Galan, a wild card, to setup a quarterfinal meeting with Sam Groth. Groth, another big server who volleys to go along with that, helped Australia reach the Davis Cup semis, and like Karlovic comes off of grass, though jetlag and fatigue may be an issue. His round 1 match against dirtballer Guido Pella looks easy on paper, and if he wins that, he should beat serve and volleyer Radek Stepanek, or Edouard Roger-Vasselin round 2. Stepanek really seems to be struggling at his advanced age, so I have Groth over ERV in round 2.
Karlovic should beat Groth do the fact his similar playstyle is slightly superior, and he should be less fatigued. Expect two or three tiebreaks honestly. Karlovic was the finalist in Newport and lost in a final round tiebreak.
Adrian Mannarino will face the Ram/Falla winner in round 2, the Newport quarterfinalist is a solid 13-6 on hard courts this year while Falla is just 4-4, it’s hard to pick against Falla in Bogota given the unique conditions, but Mannarino with his loopy game should have enough to get through that match and reach the quarters. There he will face one of Malek Jaziri/Austin Krajicek/John Millman/Qualifier, as a qualifier could well reach the quarters. Jaziri struggles to stay in shape, Krajicek is struggling in general, and Millman has always had talent but has failed to live up to expectations. I have Millman beating Jaziri in round 2 to reach the quarters, and then Mannarino beating Millman to reach the semis.
Bernard Tomic, who crashed out of Newport, then was arrested in Miami, got bailed out, and is now playing in Bogota, will face Adrian Menendez-Maceiras/Alejandro Gonzalez round 2. Tomic is the defending champion, and a talented tennis player, but with all of the turmoil in his personal life, I’m not sure he’ll do much more than collect a check here. AMM is better than the home Colombian Gonzalez on hard courts (and AG has DC fatigue), and I have him beating Tomic as well because of the personal issues.
If healthy and fit, Marcos Baghdatis should benefit, the 5 seed opens with a qualifier, then Tatsuma Ito, a journeyman, or a qualifier, in round 2. Baghdatis has the talent and the game to reach the semis and he’s 11-7 on hard courts this year, thus I have him beating a qualifier, and Ito, then Menendez or Tomic to reach the semis.
Victor Estrella, who tends to play well in South America, and isn’t a bad hard court player, though he prefers clay, will open with Nico Barrientos, a wild card, or Yuichi Sugita. Estrella should be able to reach the semis, presuming a successful Davis Cup weekend didn’t fatigue him, and improve on his 0-4 hard court record this year. After his opening match, he’ll face either James Ward/Michael Berrer or hard courter Illya Marchenko. Berrer should beat tired Davis Cupper Ward with his serve and volley game, and I also have him slipping past Marchenko before falling to Estrella.
Any number of players could break through this week, but you can’t count Falla out on home soil in the unique high altitude conditions of Bogota. Even when his form has been poor and he’s been a run of the mill player, he tends to find success here and if he beats Mannarino anything could happen.
Predictions:
Semis:
Karlovic d. Mannarino
Baghdatis d. Estrella
Karlovic beat Mannarino in Bogota in 2013, and this year in Delray Beach, both on hard courts. Baghdatis should win the battle of the veterans in the semis, and benefit from Tomic’s personal problems to reach the final.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Karlovic this year, but in these quick and hot conditions Dr. Ivo should take advantage and serve up another Bogota title after his disappointment of dropping the final in Newport.
ATP Bastad
2015 ATP Bastad Preview
Skistar Swedish Open
ATP World Tour 250
Bastad, Sweden
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Goffin (14)
2: Tommy Robredo (21)
3: Pablo Cuevas (27)
4: Juan Monaco (30)
Bastad draws a top 20 player and has a solid 250 level field for clay.
First round matchups to watch:
(5)Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro
A battle of Spanish veterans, the big hitters have met plenty of times, and last year they split meetings, with Verdasco having an overall h2h advantage. Verdasco also won their 2013 Bastad quarterfinal meeting and given Almagro’s relatively poor recent form, I’d tip him as having the edge to win this match too to extend his h2h record.
(6)Thomaz Bellucci vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
Geneva champ Thomaz Bellucci will look to continue his clay court 250 level success in Bastad, and he’ll be facing off with young Swede Elias Ymer. Ymer has won a challenger title on clay this year and he’s a relatively solid all-courter but he’s still learning and adapting to the ATP level, and thus Bellucci is the favorite.
Luca Vanni vs. Albert Ramos
A struggling Luca Vanni will face an in-form Albert Ramos in a battle of clay courters. Vanni has broken through to the ATP level this year with serve and slice game, while Ramos’s top spin game has been doing damage on the challenger tour on clay. Presuming he’s fit enough, Ramos should advance from this interesting match.
David Goffin will face off with Benoit Paire or wild card Markus Eriksson in round 2, presuming Paire prevails, he has a 1-1 h2h with Goffin and given Goffin’s excellent form as of late, including in Davis Cup, he should at least reach the quarterfinals. There he could face Almagro/Verdasco unless the young Argentine Diego Schwartzman spoils the party. Schwartzman opens with Denis Istomin, and though he should win that given it’s clay, his poor loss in Davis Cup over the weekend suggest to me Verdasco has the inside track for the quarters. Verdasco has two h2h wins over Goffin, but the Belgian is in better form, and thus I have him ousting the 2013 finalist to reach the semis.
Defending champion Pablo Cuevas is solid on clay and should defeat Federico Delbonis/qualifier, and then Daniel Gimeno-Traver in the quarterfinals. DGT has had a solid season, but he’s not in the best of form right now, while Darcis comes off of Davis Cup duty but normally doesn’t favor clay. Cuevas’s likely round 2 opponent Delbonis normally doesn’t perform strongly at the ATP level though he likes clay, while Jerzy Janowicz, who DGT could face round 2, presuming he beats a qualifier, is in poor spirits right now and doesn’t prefer clay with a 1-4 record this year on the surface. He also comes off a fatigue inducing Davis Cup weekend.
Cuevas is 2-0 against DGT in the h2h and overall superior in ranking, talent, and on this surface, thus I have him in the semis. Both Cuevas and Delbonis played Davis Cup this weekend, and fatigue could be what limits the Cuevas result.
Two-time Champion Tommy Robredo comes off of Davis Cup duty and could be slayed by the Ramos/Vanni winner right off the bat. Ramos beat Robredo in Bastad in 2013, and I think he will repeat that showing given the veteran’s poor form as of late. In the quarters, it should be Ramos vs. Jeremy Chardy, who opens with a qualifier, unless Ernests Gulbis somehow catches fire. The Latvian who has now slumped outside the top 80, opens with Turk Marsel Ilhan, and then should face Chardy round 2. Chardy beat Gulbis this year in Marseille (2-3 h2h) and his clay court abilities should be enough to reach the quarters.
Ramos has a h2h win over Chardy, and with his better form I have the Spaniard in the semis.
Pico Monaco will face a qualifier or Alex Zverev in round 2 and his 13-8 clay court record this year should be enough to defeat Zverev. After that Bellucci is the favorite for the quarters presuming Ymer doesn’t trip him up. Neither wild card Christian Lindell or Joao Souza appear to be a difficult round 2 opponent. Monaco and Bellucci have a split 2-2 h2h, and I have Bellucci advancing by a small margin for the semis.
Dark Horse: Albert Ramos
The unseeded Ramos could catch fire and take this clay court title presuming he can beat Robredo and use that to power himself through to the semis. Bellucci/Monaco will be beatable in the semis, and from there anything could happen.
Predictions:
Semis:
Goffin d. Cuevas
Bellucci d. Ramos
Goffin is in better form than what would be a tired Cuevas and Bellucci beat Ramos this year in Geneva on clay.
Heat Strokes Beat Ground Strokes @CroatiaOpenUmag Qualifying Stefano Berlincioni for Tennis Atlantic
Arrived in Croatia yesterday evening and checked in with Bastian Trinker, an Austrian guy that every year comes and plays here with good support on the stands from his family.
Quick dinner where I met Thomas Fabbiano and Agustin Velotti, both apparently travelling alone. During dinner the qualifying draw came out: no big names because of Davis Cup and a lot of Challengers scheduled next week.
This morning at breakfast I saw very relaxed Brazilians Wilson Leite and Andre Sa and then I headed to the tournament.
Already in the morning at 9 we had more than 30°C so the heat will be a key factor also this year: it will not be easy for any player to play three qualifying rounds in three consecutive days under this heat.
Surchenko def. Biljesko 63 62
I attended this match because I was curious to watch the local Domagoj Biljeskos, 18 years old who was #38 as junior. He appeared sick and nervous from the very beginning as he got broken in first game of the match with 3 double faults. He has no particular weapon but was quite evident that the match was very even because Surchenko is really nothing special. Self confidence was at a very low level, which killed any hope for the local guy who played a terrible match: 17 double faults in 9 service games say it all.
Linzer def. Galovic 61 63
Another apparently one way match from the score but the match was quite close. Galovic can hit very hard and he is always unlucky with quail draws here in Umag, Unfortunately for him, Linzer was more consistent but I have to say this was the best match of the day from a quality point of view.
Marcora def. Sabry 63 62
I watched only a few rallies but Marcora appeared always in control of the match, clearly overpowering the Egyptian.
Mitak def. Sudic 61 62
Local young players out of ATP top 1500, with Mitak being clearly better but both playing quite poorly.
Velotti looked very motivated, fist pumping after every point won. He played at good level and in the first few games the match was quite close, but then the Serbian fell apart and retired for illness.
Trinker def. Viola 64 26 62
I arrived at the end of second set and the Austrian looked really spent because of the heat and I thought Viola would have won quite easily the third set. The match has been quite funny because both were looking for winners and quick rallies and no one could play long rallies under the noon Umag sun. Viola lost focus at the beginning of third set and the Austrian managed to hold until the end thanks to his big serve. The Italian tanked the last game because he had no more energy to fight.
I arrived on 63 21 and I was pretty surprised by the Croat because he was serving well and hitting decent shots from baseline. After a very long rally he went to the net and retired almost from nowhere. He also cited illness as his reason for retirement.
Leite def. Urbanja 60 63
Leite was a nightmare match-up for Urbanja who plays Umag quail every year with good local support (Slovenia being so close to Umag) but he really had no chance against the Brazilian.
The Brazilian doubles player started very well, being aggressive and consistent from baseline. Trevisan probably didn’t expect such a motivated opponent and got broken early. The match was quite good with the Italian showing his powerful forehand but also his unforced errors. He didn’t lose his head despite being 3-5 down in the first set, managed to win the next 7 games and then had just to stay focused.
Leonardi def. Gonzalez 62 64
Match was quite funny because the Mexican was barely moving from the warm-up. The Italian just had just to play consistent tennis and hit drop shots as soon as he could: Gonzalez ran as in slow motion trying to reach the ball for a couple of times and he didn’t even try on some of them. Credit to Leonardi to have played with focus, but in the second round against Bagnis his opponent will fight much more.
First round qualifying matches ended at about 2 pm and started at 11 am today. Again, it will not be easy to play under this hot sun.
This evening exhibition on Center Court with Goran Ivanisevic and friends. Last year was very funny so I expect a good show also this year.
Tennis Atlantic 