Tennis Atlantic 2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 8 (Acapulco, Dubai, Buenos Aires) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Two 500 pointers are at stake with Acapulco and Dubai, while 250 points can be gained from the clay court tournament in Buenos Aires, as a vast majority of the ATP World Tour’s stars are in action this week.
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haase vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Gabashvili vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Kokkinakis vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Qualifier, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Haider-Maurer, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Haider-Maurer vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Haider-Maurer vs. Ferrer Champion: Ferrer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Johnson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Johnson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Mannarino, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Mannarino vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Karlovic vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Opinions are mixed on how David Ferrer will fare coming off his Rio title, but Kei Nishikori is the consensus pick to win his second ATP title of the year, while defending champ Grigor Dimitrov is predicted to come up just short by most of our analysts.
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, McGee vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Rosol vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
2 people have Fed as champ, 2 people have Novak as champ, and everyone has the same semifinal pairings this week, in a draw that is expected to remain true to form late into the tournament.
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Vesely, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Lorenzi vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Andujar vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Fognini vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Qualifier, Andujar vs. Nieminen Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Mayer vs. Nieminen Final: Nadal vs. Mayer Champion: Nadal
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Carreno-Busta, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Andreozzi vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Rola, Mayer vs. Gonzalez, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Bellucci, Fognini vs. Qualifier, Mayer vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Robredo Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Berlocq vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Monaco vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Monaco Champion: Nadal
Nobody appears to be comfortable picking against Nadal on clay, with Pablo Cuevas a favorite for the final.
Courtney blew the rest of the field out of the water this week in Delray, taking the title as her favorite Ernests Gulbis has before, she was the only one to correctly predict Ivo Karlovic as champion.
Jeff makes a big move this week, rising from 4th to second with a tremendous 800 point gain, Courtney won an event but actually dropped one spot into third, while Niall remains bringing up the rear.
2015 ATP Acapulco, Dubai, and Buenos Aires Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of 500 series events on hard courts this week are the highlight of the ATP calendar, as most stars will take to the courts in Mexico or Dubai, meanwhile, the ATP Golden Swing on clay concludes in Buenos Aires, with those who prefer the dirt taking their talents to Argentina for the 250 level event.
ATP Acapulco
2015 ATP Acapulco Preview
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $1,414,550
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
4: Kevin Anderson (15)
The seed cutoff is 40 (Benjamin Becker), and 4 of the top 20 are participating in this 500 level event this week.
Estrella is in tremendous form at the moment, he won the Morelos challenger on hard courts in Mexico, after winning his maiden ATP title in Quito. Lu, the steady veteran baseliner, reached the quarters in Delray, with an upset win over Kevin Anderson. I have Estrella winning this matchup given how well the veteran is playing right now, but it could go either way.
Bernard Tomic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players come off semifinals in Delray, Tomic beat Viktor Troicki en route later losing to Donald Young, while Mannarino beat Lu, and also Denis Kudla, before falling to eventual champion Ivo Karlovic. Tomic should be favored as he’s in better recent form and has won consecutive matches in every tournament he’s played this season (12-5 ATP record in 2015), expect a quality contest all the same though.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori opens with a qualifier, and then the Estrella/Lu winner, Estrella is a dangerous opponent right now, but the top 5, and normally consistent Nishikori, should reach the quarterfinals with Sam Groth/Alex Dolgopolov his most likely opponent. The winner of Groth/Dolgopolov, will face Robin Haase or Rio semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2. Dolgo was a quarterfinalist in Delray, and I give him a slight edge to beat Groth, and then Haase to reach the quarters here. Nishikori, who won the title in Memphis, and has made quarterfinals or better at every tournament this season (10-2 ATP record), is 2-0 in the h2h against Dolgo, with both wins coming on hard court, so I favor Asia’s top player over the unpredictable Dolgopolov for a spot in the semifinals.
Kevin Anderson, a finalist last year, will open with fellow big server Dustin Brown. Though Anderson lost early in Delray, he was a finalist in Memphis, and I have him getting through Brown, and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters. Johnson hasn’t lost in the opening round of any tournament this year (9-5 ATP record including consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Memphis). Johnson will open with Ivan Dodig, who has been thus far unable to return to his previous top 40 form this year. Anderson already has 2 wins against Johnson this year without dropping a set in Memphis and Auckland, and that’s why he’s the quarterfinal favorite.
Viktor Troicki, who lost to Tomic in Delray, has a reasonable chance at another quarterfinal showing, he opens with Mexican wild card Daniel Garza, who has some of the worst physical conditioning I’ve ever seen in a professional tennis player. After that, Troicki is likely to face Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo is 2-0 against Troicki, including a hard court win, but he retired in his last match in Rio, and given the surface, with Troicki already having an ATP title, and a quarterfinal on his resume this year, the Serbian should be favored. Troicki beat Anderson once three and a half years ago in Washington, and that match could go either way but with Anderson having previous success here, I have him into the semifinals over Troicki.
Rio champion David Ferrer opens with Igor Sijsling, who continues to struggle having lost three straight, even if Ferrer is a bit worn down, he only has one loss on the season, with two ATP titles (Doha and Rio), and with that in mind he should roll past Sijsling and then Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers to reach the quarters. Matosevic has struggled this year (2-5 ATP record), while Granollers has a lone good showing this year in Zagreb (semifinals) I have Ferrer over Granollers in my bracket. Ferrer is 3-1 on hard courts against him, though Granollers won their last meeting in Tokyo.
The Tomic/Mannarino winner is a possible quarterfinal opponent for Ferrer, but watch out for 8 seed Benjamin Becker as well. Becker, who comes off a round 1 loss in Memphis, and is 2-4 on the year, opens with Tobias Kamke, a fellow German. Becker is 3-0 against Tomic, though they have never met on a hard court surface, I personally have Tomic into the quarters against Ferrer in my own bracket. Ferrer is 2-0 against Tomic, with both meetings on hard courts, and he has never dropped a set against the Aussie, still fatigue may be a factor, giving Tomic a shot at the semis.. In my own bracket I’m going with Ferrer, who has had an under the radar solid season already and isn’t presently showing signs of decline. Ferrer was only pushed to 3 sets once last week in Rio.
Defending champ Grigor Dimitrov has failed to impress this year, the Bulgarian number one opens with Filip Krajinovic in round 1, he should get through that, but Donald Young should give him a round 2 test, unless fatigue is a factor. Young, a finalist in Delray, and semifinalist in Memphis, opens with a qualifier, and he has two previous hard court wins against Dimitrov, but Dimitrov has also won twice on hard courts, with three of their four hard court meetings going 3 sets. Dimitrov hasn’t played like a top 10 player thus far but given his previous success here, and Young’s fatigue, I have Dimitrov into the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic, the Delray champion, has an interesting draw, in theory he should comfortably reach the quarterfinals, given his opponents, Teymuraz Gabashvili and Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, are not exactly hard court superstars, but at his age, one has to wonder if he will be fatigued, creating an opening for a qualifier, or one of those other two players to reach the quarterfinals. I don’t trust Karlovic’s fitness and thus I have Gabashvili through, and also I have him over Lajovic, who may fall to a qualifier, to reach the quarterfinals. Gabashvili has lost three straight, while Lajovic has lost two straight and he’s normally poor on hard courts. All the same Dimitrov has a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event, and should ease his way into the semifinals.
Viktor Troicki is a possible semifinalist this week, but I give Tomic the official designation because he’s been consistent this year, which is a surprising thing to say, given he used to not be, and if Ferrer is fatigued, he has a shot to score a top 10 win and get himself to the semis, where Dimitrov, a beatable opponent, is most likely to await. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Tomic in the h2h, but Tomic has had a good season and he seems due to reach a final, though I’m not predicting it, the possibility is there.
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Nishikori just beat Anderson in Memphis, and should do so again, meanwhile, Dimitrov is 0-2 against Ferrer on an outdoor hard court but given the fatigue factor, I have Dimitrov regaining form and reaching the final this week thanks to a lucky draw.
Final: Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Nishikori is 2-0, with both wins coming on hard courts, against Dimitrov, given his solid season, he should win his second ATP title of the year in Acapulco as the top seed.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $2,082,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (8)
The seed cutoff is 20 (David Goffin), as Dubai has a very top heavy field, with 4 of the top 10, and 8 of the top 20 participating.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Vasek Pospisil
Djokovic beat Pospisil in their only meeting, a competitive contest last year in Beijing, and the Australian Open champion should once again advance to round 2 at a tournament he has won four times prior, however the young Canadian has game and this isn’t the easiest of round 1 matchups for the world number 1, Pospisil is 2-2 over his last four, and may be able to at least push the sets deep here.
Simone Bolelli vs. (Q)Lucas Pouille
One of the numerous matchups this week slated between in-form players, Bolelli has two ATP quarterfinals on his resume this year, most recently he reached the quarters in Marseille by upsetting top 10 player Milos Raonic in 3 sets. Pouille has risen to the occasion this year as well, the young Frenchman qualified with a pair of wins, and he was also a semifinalist in Auckland this year. Bolelli should be favored given his experience, and good recent form, but look for Pouille to test him, in a match that could go either way.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Goffin, and most recently crushed him at the Australian Open, in a poor showing for the Belgian. Baghdatis has gotten his 2015 off to a strong start with a challenger final, a a third round showing in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Zagreb. Goffin meanwhile has not played as well this season, compared to last, he hasn’t posted better than a quarterfinal, and he’s just 2-4 over his last six matches, most recently he retired in Marseille against Dominic Thiem. With that in mind, though Goffin is much higher ranked, look for Baghdatis to move to 3-0 in the h2h and notch an upset to reach round 2.
Andreas Seppi vs. Richard Gasquet
Two players who have started the season in good form, Seppi has an ATP final (Zagreb), an ATP semifinal (Doha), and a second week appearance at the Australian Open on his resume thus far, resulting in an overall 11-5 ATP record this year, while Gasquet is 7-2 with a title in Montpellier on his resume. The shotmaking, tactically agile veterans have met five times previously, most recently back in 2012, and Gasquet is 4-1 in those meetings, with his lone loss coming on clay. Gasquet should be favored here but Seppi cannot be counted out, he’s improved his game considerably it seems this season, compared to previous seasons, and this match should at minimum not be a routine affair.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This should be quite a high quality contest, Verdasco, who won the last hard court meeting between these Spaniards in 2012 is a slight favorite. He’s had a somewhat average season thus far with a 6-4 ATP record. Dasco took his talents to the golden swing for a couple of tournaments and is now back on hard courts while GGL has been off to a hot start in 2015 sticking to the hard courts. Garcia-Lopez won Zagreb, and already has 10 wins on the season (contrasted with 4 losses, two of which came at the racquet of top 10 player Stan Wawrinka in competitive contests). I personally have GGL winning this one, his play has been quite impressive thus far, and he is outperforming Verdasco right now.
Djokovic should be able to roll to the semifinals here, after Pospisil, Andrey Golubev or qualifier Fabrice Martin await, and then it should be Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. Lopez has generally lived up to his high ranking thus far this season (6-3 on the year), and he should defeat James Ward and Marsel Ilhan or Alex Zverev, but I give him little chance against Novak who he is 0-5 in his career against. The only time he took a set was in their Dubai 2011 meeting. On an interesting note about Martin-Golubev, Martin broke a seven match losing streak dating back to last season to qualify and he beat Borna Coric notably in those qualies, while Golubev is just 1-5 this season with four straight losses. Perhaps the recent boost to Martin’s confidence will get him through to round 2. Zverev should be the one to face Lopez, as he just beat Ilhan in Marseille qualifying a week prior.
Tomas Berdych, who has been solid this season with two ATP finals (Doha and Rotterdam), and of course that semifinal at the Australian Open on his resume already, opens with Jeremy Chardy, a quarterfinalist in Marseille. Berdych is 2-0 against Chardy, and does what the Frenchman is best at, better than he does, so I have little doubt it will be Berdych, who has made two consecutive finals here into round 2 against the Bolelli/Pouille winner. That should be a quality contest, and if Bolelli his Berdych’s round 2 opponent, the Italian has beaten the Czech twice before (2-3 h2h), so he may be able to do some damage, but once again the confidence pick should be Berdych as a quarterfinalist at least in Dubai.
Look for Berdych to face Sergiy Stakhovsky in that quarterfinal, the Ukrainian is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, he opens with Lukas Rosol, who he just dispatched in Marseille (the Czech is just 1-7 over his last 8 matches dating back to last season), and then will face Denis Istomin or Ernests Gulbis. Both players are in awful form, Istomin is just 2-6 on the year, with three straight losses, while Gulbis is yet to win a match this season (0-4), with no sets won in his previous two losses against Dominic Thiem and Jeremy Chardy. Given Gulbis is the moodier player compared to Istomin, I have Istomin through, and then Stako to take him out comfortably. Stako has just one opening round loss this year, and he made the quarters in Rotterdam and the semis in Marseille consecutively, notably knocking off Stan Wawrinka in Marseille. Stako is 2-2 on a hard court against Istomin, but form favors him strongly. Given Berdych has a higher ranking, more accomplishments, a 3-0 h2h, and a better skillset than Stako, look for a Djokovic vs. Berdych semifinal this week.
Bottom Half:
Since 2009, only Djokovic, and Roger Federer, a six time Dubai champion, and the defending champion, have won the title here in the UAE. Federer will open his quest to repeat as champion against struggling veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who is a shell of his old self. Federer is an incredible 16-0 against the Russian over his career, and Youzhny is just 2-5 over his last seven matches dating back to last year. Federer could be tested a bit more against the Garcia-Lopez/Verdasco winner. If it’s GGL, as I have in my bracket, Federer is 3-0 against him, and should be able to make it 4-0 in reaching the quarterfinals. Federer is 5-0 against Verdasco if that is his opponent, and would make it 6-0.
Look for Seppi/Gasquet in the quarters for Federer, Roberto Bautista Agut is also an option here. RBA opens with Dominic Thiem, who he has already beaten twice this season, including last week in Marseille where he reached the semis. This is a difficult section to predict, RBA is 1-0 against both Seppi and Gasquet, but I feel like both of those players are outperforming the Spaniard right now and thusly I have Gasquet in the quarterfinals of my own bracket, with any of those 3 players having a case to make it that far. Gasquet has never beaten Federer on a hard court (0-7 including a Dubai loss) so Fed should reach the semis. If Seppi is his quarterfinal opponent, that would of course be a reprisal of the Italian’s shocking victory in Melbourne, but even still I would pick Federer to get his revenge and reach the semis.
Andy Murray, a one time finalist in Dubai who has played well thus far this season, opens with Gilles Muller, another in-form unseeded player to watch. Murray is 1-0 against Muller who reached the second week in Melbourne, and has an ATP semi and two ATP quarterfinals already on his resume this year. Murray, the AO finalist, most recently made the quarters in Rotterdam where he was upset by Gilles Simon. After Muller tests Murray, expect him to also take out Joao Sousa, who faces wild card James McGee in the first round. The journeyman McGee is an odd wild card selection, but all the same Murray is 4-0 against Sousa including a win this year at the Australian Open. Sousa has lost three straight matches though he has an ATP semifinal on his resume this year (Montpellier).
Murray could face Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters, after Goffin, it would be Malek Jaziri or Philipp Kohlschreiber for him in round 2. Jaziri tends to peak for these events in the Arab world but after a good showing at the Australian Open he’s in terrible form with three straight losses, most recently in Delray at the hands of Bernard Tomic. Kohlschreiber has lost two straight and is just 2-5 on the season, but even still I favor him over Jaziri. That said Baghdatis is playing much better than Kohli right now and has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts, pointing to the Cypriot to reach the quarters.The aggressive Baghdatis has two previous hard court wins against Murray, who has won their last two hard court meetings for a 2-2 overall hard court h2h, and they almost always tend to play competitive contests, especially on fast surfaces, but Murray is likely to have more left in the tank these days and thus I have him into the semifinals.
The Cypriot appears to be motivated, fitter, and striking the ball much better in 2015, having experienced a bit of a career resurgence as of late when many thought he was near retirement. In my mind he’s the favorite to at minimum reach the quarterfinals, and Murray is beatable, as he’s proven before, so semis are a possible outcome for him this week, which would be remarkable given he entered this top heavy, 500 level event as a wild card.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic has never lost to Berdych on a hard court, in a ton of meetings, including the 2013 Dubai final, and with that in mind, I don’t see any reason to pick against a Djokovic vs. Federer Dubai final this week given prior history and present form.
Federer has won three straight hard court meetings against Murray and he tends to play exceptionally well in Dubai, giving him the slight edge to reach the final this week.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai, and their last Dubai meeting in 3 sets last year, but Djokovic played tremendous in Melbourne, and I still have to pick him on an outdoor hard court almost every time. This matchup could go either way, both players know each other well, and know how to beat the other, so it’s a really difficult prediction all the same, with my gut favoring the world number 1.
Argentina Open presented by Buenos Aires Ciudad
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 23-March 1, 2015
Prize Money: $500,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: Tommy Robredo (18)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Fabio Fognini (28)
For a 250 event, with a pair of 500s also on the calendar the same week, Buenos Aires is actually quite solid, with Nadal headlining and a host of clay courters joining him on the undercard. Everyone in the field this week has taken part in one or more previous Golden Swing events (Quito, Sao Paulo or Rio)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Pablo Andujar vs. Nicolas Almagro
Andujar is a seed, but Almagro is 3-0 in the h2h, including 2-0 on clay. Almagro has gone 2-2 on the Golden swing thus far with both of his losses coming in three setters against Pablo Cuevas. Andujar is 1-2, and isn’t playing that well right now, with that in mind the 2011 BA champ Almagro should advance to round 2 with a win in this all-Spanish encounter.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, a semifinalist in Rio, will face Albert Montanes or a qualifier in round 1. Nadal is 5-0 against Montanes with all meetings coming on clay, and his veteran Spanish counterpart has never taken a set against him. Next for Nadal is likely to be the winner of Federico Delbonis vs. Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci, who just lost to Nadal in Rio, will face Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. The h2h is 1-1 and both players have lost three straight matches, but I give Bellucci, the more skilled player, the slighest of edges in that one. Delbonis has Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, he lost an incredible quarterfinal match against Fabio Fognini in Rio, saving more than a half dozen match points before falling in a third set tiebreak. Before that, Delbonis was struggling, and likewise PCB has been up and down, he beat Carlos Berlocq, before losing to Nadal in Rio. I have Delbonis as a quarterfinalist yet again this week, given the home soil advantage, and then Nadal should take him out to reach the semis. The h2h between Delbonis and Bellucci is 3-2 in favor of Delbonis with all meetings coming on clay, and all of them being close encounters. Nadal is 1-0 against Delbonis with that win coming on clay in 2013.
Rio finalist Fabio Fognini, who found some of his best form in months to reach the final there, notably upsetting Nadal, will open with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Carlos Berlocq. I have Fognini beating Berlocq in round 2, after Berlocq wins the all Argentina round 1 battle. Fognini had started the season just 1-3, but as mentioned he put much more effort into his tennis in Rio, and though unpredictable, has be favored to reach the quarterfinals, though fatigue may factor in.
Jiri Vesely, the 6 seed, has a nice chance at a run this week, he opens with Blaz Rola, who has just two wins on the season (though on of them came in an upset of Leo Mayer last week in Rio), and then would face a qualifier in round 2. Vesely is 0-3 since winning the Auckland title, but he pushed Fognini to 3 sets in Rio, and his other golden swing loss was to Pablo Cuevas, who ended up taking the title in Sao Paulo, both of those losses coming in 3 sets. Vesely, though mentally fragile, is playing better than recent results would suggest, and presuming his fitness is ok, I actually have him winning that rematch with Fognini in the quarters. It was a low quality, and up and down encounter when they played last week in Rio, and by this point, Fognini should be fatigued from all the tennis he’s had to play over the past week and a half, with that in mind, the advantage swings to Vesely to reach the semis. Don’t count a qualifier out here either.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, the 2009 champion, will face Jarkko Nieminen or Renzo Olivo, a wild card, in round 2. The veteran Nieminen isn’t that impressive on clay right now, while Olivo is actually 8-2 over his last 10 matches, a mix of Quito qualies, and the Santo Domingo challenger. With a retirement, and a loss to eventual champ Victor Estrella, the only two losses Olivo has had in weeks, I have him notching an upset on home soil to setup a meeting with Robredo. Olivo shockingly upset Robredo in Bastad last year on clay, and Robredo has been in poor form all season, with just a 1-2 record on the year, with a retirement, and a loss to the much lower ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer in Rio. With that in mind, I’m backing Olivo to reach the quarterfinals with a pair of upsets over ATP veterans, on home soil in BA.
Olivo/Robredo are most likely to meet the Andujar/Almagro winner in the quarters, I presume Almagro will be able to defeat wild card Horacio Zeballos or Albert Ramos in round 2. Ramos should beat Zeballos, he’s 1-2 on the Golden Swing thus far, but Almagro is the most talented player of the bunch and should beat Olivo in the quarters to reach the semis in what would be a good week for him.
Pablo Cuevas opens with Guido Andreozzi or a qualifier, Andreozzi, a wild card, has been plying his trade on hard courts, rather than clay this year, and the qualifier will have a good chance, all the same Cuevas, the Sao Paulo champ, and a quarterfinalist in Rio who pushed Nadal to 3 sets, should have no trouble reaching the quarters given his good form. In another all-Argentine battle, Juan Monaco (2-1 clay court h2h) should have enough ability to take out Maximo Gonzalez, who hasn’t won an ATP main draw match in a while. Monaco, a Rio quarterfinalist should face the top ranked Argentine Leo Mayer in round 2. Mayer retired in his last match and is just 1-2 on the Golden Swing, but I still see him beating the veteran French journeyman Stephane Robert, who hasn’t played on clay since the French Open last year. Monaco and Mayer have never met on clay, but with Monaco in slightly better form, I have Pico into the quarters, and then Cuevas beating him for a spot in the semis. Monaco is 5-0 on clay against Cuevas, but they haven’t played since 2011, and Cuevas has been a far superior player as of late.
The unseeded Nicolas Almagro is also a dark horse, but the home player Olivo could have the most eye catching week in Buenos Aires. As mentioned if the in-form wild card can score upset wins over Nieminen, and Robredo, he would be in the quarters, and should be find a way to beat Almagro or another player, he would find himself in his first ever ATP semifinal this week, which I’m sure the home crowd would appreciate.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Vesely
Cuevas d. Almagro
Even with Nadal not playing top 5 quality tennis right now, I don’t see anyone in the field being able to take him out before the final, meanwhile Cuevas has dominated Almagro as of late, and should also be able to battle his way to the final this week
Final: Nadal d. Cuevas
He didn’t win Rio, but you still have to pick Nadal as the champion for almost every clay court tournament in which he is a participant. The king of clay has struggled thus far this season, but you have to feel failure to reach a final yet this year, will further motivate him to cap off the Golden Swing with good vibes, and an ATP title. Nadal just beat my favored finalist Cuevas last week in Rio in 3 sets, and his level should be good enough to take this 250 title as the top seed.
2015 ATP Rio and Marseille Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The highest valued clay court event on the Golden Swing, Rio, takes place this week, as it is in its second year of existence as a 500 level event. In France, a very strong 250 in Marseille, part of the European indoor tournaments, takes place, and thirdly ATP World Tour Tennis will continue stateside in the USA in Delray Beach, a 250 outdoor hard court event, as the ATP has a lot of variety this week in terms of players and venues.
ATP Rio
2015 ATP Rio Preview
Rio Open Presented by Claro
ATP World Tour 500*
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
February 16-February 22, 2015
*Denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Tommy Robredo (17)
4: Fabio Fognini (26)
It’ll be the strongest clay court golden swing field, but still in it’s second year Rio only got three top 20 players and two top 10 players for a 500 level event that is more back than front loaded.
First Round matchups to watch:
(1)Rafael Nadal vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci, a Quito semifinalist, comes off a round 1 loss in Sao Paulo, and now will have to face Rafael Nadal, who has never taken a set off of previously (0-3, all losses coming in slams). Nadal is the defending champion who should be happy to return his tennis to clay, the surface where he is the greatest player of all time on. The home crowd should support the Brazilian, at least to some extent, and this match is mainly interesting as it’s a form test for Nadal, Bellucci isn’t the weakest possible R1 opponent, and with Nadal having looked very shaky since he last played clay we will begin to get an idea where Rafa is at, now playing on his best surface. I don’t see a path to victory for Bellucci in this one, but we will see if he can take a set at least.
(6)Pablo Cuevas vs. Nicolas Almagro
Cuevas took the title in Sao Paulo, and will either be fatigued or in excellent form going into this tournament. In that tournament, he beat Almagro in 3 sets, and he’s 3-0 in his career against him. Almagro’s run in SP ended in the quarters but he does seem to be improving, and this a chance for him to have another week of success if he can reverse the result against Cuevas. Given this was a close contest, a fresher Almagro should prevail this time and reach round 2.
Federico Delbonis vs. Diego Schwartzman
Delbonis, 24, has been struggling for a while, as he crashed out in round 1 in Sao Paulo, where he was the defending champion, and he’s slipped down the rankings, while Schwartzman lost to Fabio Fognini in 3 sets, in the second round of SP. The 22 year old seemingly has more promise than Delbonis, and this match is interesting because it’s a match up of two of the promising Argentine dirtballers from a similar generation. Schwartzman should win but it could go either way
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Dusan Lajovic
Klizan and Lajovic have 1-1 clay court h2h, Lajovic has been in good form as of late, he was a consecutive quarterfinalist in Quito and Sao Paulo, while Klizan is 2-2 on clay in 2015, as he’d had an up and down time on the golden swing. This match between two of the few non Spanish Europeans that took part in the Golden Swing should match Klizan’s power against Lajovic’s quarter coverage, and it’s hard to predict but with Lajovic playing well recently and improving, I have the Serbian into round 2 in a small upset of the seeded Klizan.
Unless Nadal is injured or something else strange occurs, he should work his way into form on clay and beat Bellucci, Carlos Berlocq, and Almagro/Cuevas in order to reach the semifinals. Berlocq will need to beat Pablo Carreno Busta to reach round 2, while the Almagro/Cuevas winner will face Albert Montanes or Maximo Gonzalez, and they are both better than those opponents. Almagro shockingly beat Nadal last year on clay, and since then both players have suffered injuries. You never know if lightning could strike twice but the h2h that strongly favors Nadal speaks for itself, as all of these players are simply a step slower and behind Nadal on clay.
Fabio Fognini comes off a round 2 loss in Sao Paulo and will face Jiri Vesely in his opening match in Rio. The Italian continues to struggle and Vesely, who lost to the eventual champion Pablo Cuevas in 3 sets in round 1 of SP, may be able to pull off the upset. I personally have Fognini through and feel he will also defeat Pablo Andujar in round 2 assuming Andujar defeats Paolo Lorenzi. Andujar trails Lorenzi 3-4 in the h2h, all of their meetings have come on clay, and they both come off round 1 losses in SP (to Lajovic and Schwartzman respectively). Fognini is 4-0 on clay against Andujar in his career. Klizan/Lajovic are likely quarterfinal opponents for Fognini (or another player such as Vesely), with Delbonis/Schwartzman the round 2 opponent for Klizan/Lajovic. I have Lajovic over Fognini in the quarterfinals, for the simple reason he’s in better form right now, though they have never met.
David Ferrer, who is known to do well on the Golden Swing, opens with his countryman Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a qualifier, and then should face Thiemo De Bakker, another qualifier, assuming the former top junior Dutchman beats wild card Guilherme Clezar. De Bakker is in great form having previously reached the round of 16 in Sao Paulo as a qualifier, falling to eventual finalist Luca Vanni in 3 sets. He then qualified in Rio with a pair of straight set wins. De Bakker pushed Ferrer to three sets in Doha earlier this season, wilting late, and I’m sure he’d love another chance to notch an upset, but it’s still likely that Ferrer will advance to the quarterfinals no matter whom he plays in round 2. In those quarters, watch out for Santiago Giraldo, who found a bit of form and reached the semis in Sao Paulo last week, which is his best result in a while. Giraldo should defeat slumping vet Juan Monaco, who has lost five straight, and then Marco Cecchinato, a qualifier, or Jarkko Nieminen, to reach the quarterfinals. Ferrer is 3-0 and has never dropped a set against Giraldo, and I don’t expect that to be any different now, so it should be Ferrer as one of the semifinalists in Rio this week.
Tommy Robredo will open with Elias Ymer, the young Swedish wild card, and then has Albert Ramos or Andreas Haider-Maurer on deck. Ramos has a h2h win on clay and he’s more accomplished so it should be Robredo-Ramos round 2, and then Robredo, who lost to Nicolas Almagro in Sao Paulo, into the quarterfinals. Possible opponents or most likely Robredo in the quarters are Leo Mayer, Blaz Rola, Joao Souza or Facundo Arguello. Mayer, a SP quarterfinalist should beat Rola, and Souza, a semifinalist in SP, should beat Arguello. Souza just beat Mayer in 3 sets, but I have a feeling that result was an aberration in Sao Paulo, and the Argentine will defeat the Brazilian this time. Mayer beat Robredo on clay last year (in 3 sets), and I have him in the semifinals in Rio this year by virtue of beating Robredo, who still seems a bit rusty this season, while Mayer is likely improving. It’s not an easy pick but Ferrer vs. Mayer in the semis is my selection.
Dark Horse: Joao Souza
The Brazilian wild card has a chance at the semifinals, qualifier Facundo Arguello is an opponent he should be favored against, and then Mayer, his likely round 2 opponent, he just beat in Sao Paulo. With home fan support he beats Mayer, a win over Robredo is also possible for the semis. Players like Jiri Vesely could also serve as dark horses this week, but I’m sure home fans would love to see the local player have a surprise week.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Lajovic
Ferrer d. Mayer
Nadal comfortably defeated Lajovic last summer at the French Open, and he’s a cut above anyone he may face in the semis this week. Mayer beat Ferrer in 3 sets in the Hamburg final last summer, that said Ferrer is normally the better player on clay and he should also reach the final this week.
Final: Nadal d. Ferrer
Nadal has normally dominated Ferrer in the clay court h2h, right now anything could happen with Nadal, but if he’s been good enough to reach the final, he should be in the form needed to outhit and outsmart Ferrer once again for a consecutive Rio Open title.
Open 13
ATP World Tour 250
Marseille, France
February 16-February 22, 2015
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (6)
2: Stan Wawrinka (8)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
Marseille has an excellent field for a 250, in fact it’s the strongest tournament on the ATP tour this week, all of the seeds are top 30, and two top 10 players are here in action.
Thiem has a prior win (2014 AO in 4 sets) over Sousa, and he trashed a slumping Ernests Gulbis in Rotterdam before falling to Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 2, while Sousa reached the semis in Montpellier, and fell in 3 sets to Gilles Simon in Rotterdam. Thiem’s form is rather hard to predict, but he’s struggled against most quality opponents this year as the win over Gulbis was his first of the season, while Sousa has won 5 matches this season and is at his best indoors. With that in mind, though Thiem has more potential long term, Sousa should score a small upset in this one.
(6)David Goffin vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Goffin has been struggling this season, having failed to come anything close to his form in the second half of 2014. The Belgian fell to Gilles Muller in Rotterdam, while Janowicz was ill and pulled out of the tournament after reaching the Montpellier final. This result will depend a lot on how Janowicz is feeling, but with a week off I would expect him to be somewhat back to normal, and with a prior head to head win last year over the Belgian, in addition to better recent results, Janowicz should get past the seeded Goffin.
Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. (WC)Benoit Paire
Mathieu qualified in Rotterdam and once again suffered a mental lapse that cost him the match against top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov. He fell in 3 sets in that one, as his mental fortitude has always hampered his career results. Paire won the Bergamo challenger indoors last week for his best result in many months on tour. The formerly promising young Frenchman with a gifted backhand will try to outwit the veteran PHM, but I personally feel it will be Mathieu that wins this, with Paire’s fatigue a factor. PHM is the more well rounded competitor, and Paire is as weak as him in the mental department.
Top Half:
Rotterdam semifinalist Milos Raonic opens with Luca Vanni or Simon Bolelli in round 2, almost assuredly Bolelli, given Vanni is in South America on the golden swing and got an SE into this tournament, if he plays it with a difference in surface and while fatigued Raonic just dispatched Bolelli in Rotterdam round 2, and that trend should hold and see Raonic into the quarterfinals against Gael Monfils. Monfils, a Rotterdam quarterfinalist, has a surprisingly terrible record in Marseille (1-6 in his career), even though it’s indoors and on home soil, but with a qualifier and Andrey Kuznetsov or Andrey Golubev standing in his way, he still should reach the quarters before falling to Raonic, who has proven to be too strong as of late for all but the elite players in the game, with his consistent dosage of big serves and powerful forehands that wears players down.
Roberto Bautista Agut will open with Robin Haase or Vasek Pospisil in round 2, most likely Pospisil. RBA beat Vasek twice last season and fell to Monfils in Rotterdam, while Vashy upset Philipp Kohlschreiber before losing to Andy Murray. That should be a high quality contest in round 2 and it could go either way, but I have Bautista Agut through to the quarterfinals as his seed rank would suggest. The section below RBA is stacked with the unpredictable Goffin/Janowicz or Sousa/Thiem, I have Sousa over Thiem, and Janowicz over Goffin, then Janowicz over Sousa, just as what happened in Montpellier a couple of weeks ago. That Montpellier contest went three sets so Sousa reversing the result is quite possible, and any of these four could reach the semis. With RBA having a 1-0 h2h record over Janowicz, with a win last year in Miami, I have the Spaniard into the semis to meet Raonic. This is a difficult section to predict however.
Rotterdam champ Stan Wawrinka, who played well to win his first 500 level title last week, will open with the PHM/Paire winner, PHM could prove trouble if Wawrinka is fatigued, but you can’t exactly trust the Frenchman with a knack for mental collapses against top competition, and with that in mind Wawrinka should still reach the quarterfinals. If his opponent is Paire, he will be playing his best friend in the second round. The section above Wawrinka is also difficult to predict, Sergiy Stakhovsky reached the quarterfinals in Rotterdam, and he opens with the 8 seed Lukas Rosol, Rosol is struggling and he has just a 1-3 h2h against the outspoken Stako, so Stako should get through with the unpredictable but talented JL Struff his matchup in round 2. Struff opens with a qualifier, and he is on a losing streak of four matches currently, but he has had some of his best successes as a pro indoors and he is 4-0 against Stakhovsky in the h2h. Both these players are hard to predict but I have Wawrinka beating Struff for a spot in the semifinals in my own bracket.
Defending champ Ernests Gulbis is in terrible form, as he has been for months, he’s seeded third, but I have Jeremy Chardy beating a qualifier, and then dispatching the Latvian number one to reach the quarterfinals. Chardy isn’t in great form and the h2h is 3-1 Gulbis but Gulbis has lost five straight dating back to last season and he’s not even playing top 70 level right now regardless of his ranking. Gilles Simon, a Rotterdam semifinalist, is the main beneficiary of this weakest quarter of the draw, The 5 seed has a qualifier, and then Borna Coric/Denis Istomin standing in his way before the quarterfinals. None of those opponents should prove to be an issue, and Simon should defeat Chardy as well (he did so in Rotterdam R2 just last week) to get into the semifinals. Simon was the champion in Marseille in 2007.
The French veteran isn’t the only possible dark horse this week (non seeds Thiem/Sousa/Janowicz could all perhaps reach the semis or better), but he presents the most intriguing possibility of a run. The talent is still there and he plays his best indoors these days, but his results as usual are going to depend on his mental fortitude. PHM is a player who would have been top 5 and perhaps reached a slam final or more with the right sports psychologist, but rather he’s had a second tier career, and flashes of his ability are still possible in weeks like this, with the seeded player Wawrinka likely to be fatigued and perhaps less focused on the 250 level event this week. Beating Wawrinka would be a monumental upset, but if he does there is no one but Gilles Simon that would truly stand in PHM’s way before the semifinals, and Simon is beatable. It’s not likely but Mathieu is a possible finalist this week.
Predictions Semis: Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Simon d. Wawrinka
Raonic beat RBA at the end of last season and he’s been trustworthy and consistent when it comes to beating non elite players, he has to be the favorite for the title this week coming off the semis in Rotterdam given this is another indoor hard court tournament. Simon is actually 2-1 on hard courts against Wawrinka and beat him last season in a strange three set contest, with that factored in with the fatigue considerations, Simon should be the favorite to reach the final this week.
Final: Raonic d. Simon
Milos beat Gilles twice last year, and given the surface and recent results, Raonic should be crowned champion in Marseille.
2015 ATP Rotterdam, Memphis, Sao Paulo Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The traditional Rotterdam 500 level indoor hard tournament takes place this week, along with the US indoor tournament in Memphis, and the clay court event in Sao Paulo, which got switched around on the calendar this year. Both of those tournaments are 250 level events. Here is a preview of all the action as indoor tennis heats up and the Golden Swing rolls on.
ATP Rotterdam
2015 ATP Rotterdam Preview
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (4)
2: Milos Raonic (6)
3: Tomas Berdych (7)
4: Stan Wawrinka (9)
A stacked field with 6 of the top 15, there are also a host of unseeded and lower seeded players who can play great on hard courts as Rotterdam has yet again attracted a fantastic field for a 500 level event.
Vasek Pospisil vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber Pospisil hurt himself again in Australia, and he hasn’t performed as well historically indoors as he has on outdoor hard, but even still he’s a difficult opponent for the veteran Kohlschreiber in round 1. The German comes off a loss to Joao Sousa in Montpellier. He’s yet to win consecutive matches this season as his form has been up and down, that said Kohlschreiber should be the better performer indoors and having played more matches of late should help him advance to round 2.
(8)Gilles Simon vs. Joao Sousa Many would presume the Portugese number one Sousa is better on clay, but in fact he’s had some of his best career results on hard courts at the ATP level, and especially indoors. The veteran Simon comes off a loss to Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals of Montpellier and has yet to do anything notable in 2015. Sousa faded against Janowicz in the semis of Montpellier and fatigue could well play a factor but he’s 5-3 in 2015, all on hard courts and none of his losses were poor, so I’m going with the upset and picking Sousa to reach R2.
(3)Tomas Berdych vs. Jerzy Janowicz The defending Champion has a difficult match scheduled in round 1, as you rarely see an early round match with both players in such great form. Berdych of course reached the semifinals at Australian Open with a notable win over Nadal, and before that he had reached the final of Doha by demolishing all opponents in his wake (including Richard Gasquet and Andreas Seppi). Janowicz is already showing signs of improvement in 2015, after a dismal 2014. He’s reached the final of Montpellier and he also reached the third round at the AO (notably beating Gael Monfils in 5). History favors Berdych though. The big hitting Czech is 3-0 in the h2h, including a win last year in Rotterdam over the big hitting Pole, and though all of those matches were tight three set encounters, Janowicz has fatigue working against him, and retired due to illness in Montpellier, while Berdych should be fresh, thus he should survive the upset alert.
(5)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q)Paul-Henri Mathieu
Dimitrov lost their only h2h meeting in straights (2012 Basel indoors) and he comes off quarterfinals in Melbourne. Mathieu, the mentally shaky veteran, beat Jurgen Melzer to qualify after pushing Philipp Kohlschreiber to 3 sets in Montpellier. Mathieu is a bit of an indoor hard court specialist these days, and it’s not an easy matchup for Dimitrov, I still expect him to advance but it could go three sets.
David Goffin vs. Gilles Muller Goffin, who hails from just over the border in Belgium, and is nearly playing in a home event, (like the Luxembourger Muller is a fellow Benelux), has yet to catch fire in 2015 after his rise in 2014 into a consistent ATP player. D Goff is just 3-3 in 2015 and has yet to beat a player with a top 50 ranking. Muller, who can do a lot of damage with his cracking serve indoors was shown the door by Ricardas Berankis in Zagreb in 3 sets after reaching the second week in Australia. Muller has kept himself busy thus far this year, having played every week on tour, but his gamestyle doesn’t lend himself to exhaustion, and with Goffin yet to put the pieces together this year, I’m going with an upset and have Muller into round 2. They have never met, and we’ll see if Goffin can keep his game under control under assault from Muller’s steady dose of serve and volleying.
Top Half:
AO finalist Andy Murray, who has won the title here before, opens with qualifier Nicolas Mahut, then the Pospisil/Kohlschreiber winner. Mahut isn’t too dangerous so Murray should be safe in that one. Murray has never played Kohli indoors, and he beat Pospisil last year in Vienna. As well he has started his season, I don’t expect the UK number one to have any problems reaching the quarterfinals to setup a meeting with most likely the Sousa/Simon winner. Julian Benneteau, who has indoor success, and Jeremy Chardy, are also possible opponents, but all the same Murray can’t really complain about his path to the semifinals. He demolished Sousa in Melbourne and has only lost once in a dozen meetings against Simon. I have Sousa into the quarters with wins over Simon and Benneteau. Sousa denied Benneteau a maiden ATP title in Kuala Lumpur indoors in 2013, taking the title himself.
Berdych/Janowicz will face Robin Haase/Andreas Seppi in round 2. Berdych beat Seppi in Doha, and the Italian, who is on a tear so far in 2015, is likely to be fatigued from his current final, and possible title in Zagreb. Haase continues to be pedestrian, so Berdych should get past Seppi for the quarters and setup a meeting with perhaps Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA opens with young gun German WC Alex Zverev, and then Gael Monfils or fellow French qualifier Edouard Roger-Vasselin are on deck. Monfils reached the semis in Montpellier while suffering from an undisclosed illness, and his health is uncertain at the moment. With that in mind, I’m playing it safe and putting RBA through even though Monfils beat him last summer in Cincy. RBA is 3-3 in 2015, but he was also ill in January and isn’t a bad indoor hard court player. Berdych and RBA have a split 2-2 h2h, with all meetings taking place since 2013, and Berdych won their only indoor meeting. That match could be close but Berdych has looked great against all but top tier competition in 2015 and he has points to defend so I expect to see him as a semifinalist this week.
Milos Raonic is making his debut in Rotterdam. The AO quarterfinalist will face Lukas Rosol or Simone Bolelli in round 2, after qualifier Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1. Bolelli, who is actually a grand slam champion now after winning the doubles title in Melbourne, has been in better form than Rosol, so he should advance to face Raonic. Raonic has appeared immune to losing to all but top 10 players on hard court as of late so he shouldn’t have any trouble banging his way to the quarterfinals. Raonic doesn’t have a difficult path to the semifinals either, as Ernests Gulbis is the seed in his section, and Gulbis has not looked good so far this season. The Latvian will likely be happy to be back indoors though and should be favored against his best pal and former hitting partner Dominic Thiem of Austria. Thiem actually beat Gulbis in 5 last year at the US Open but Thiem has appeared to be out of sorts and out of shape thus far in 2015, so now is a good time to see him on the other side of the net if you’re Gulbis, who will be looking to build his confidence. In round 2 for Gulbis/Thiem it’ll be Sergiy Stakhovsky or Marcel Granollers, two of the weaker players in this field. Stakhovsky lost in round 2 of Zagreb to Mikhail Youzhny, while Granollers reached the semifinals before falling to Seppi. With Granollers in better form I have him through against both Stako and Gulbis. The hard court h2h between Gulbis and Granollers is 1-1. Raonic should demolish whoever his quarterfinal opponent is and reach the semis.
Stan Wawrinka, who reached the semis in Australia will open with Dutch wild card Jesse Huta Galung, from there expect Wawrinka to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez yet again, after winning in 4 sets over him at the AO. GGL is in the Zagreb final (beat Viktor Troicki notably) and may take the title there, he opens with Denis Istomin who luckily reached the quarters in Montpellier. GGL won their only indoor meeting, and should get into round 2, but I don’t expect him to have much left in the tank for for Wawrinka at that stage. Wawrinka is slated to face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, assuming he can get past Mathieu, and then the Goffin/Muller winner. Muller/Goffin could be trouble, but Dimitrov is still the more talented player so he should be favored. Dimitrov demolished Wawrinka on grass in their last h2h meeting but given current form, the fact this is indoors, and a 2-1 overall h2h Wawrinka should be able to get himself to the semis here and avenge that loss.
In a tournament where the top seeds should be filling out the quarterfinals and beyond, Muller represents the best chance for an unseeded breakthrough (given Janowicz’s likely fatigue). With his dangerous serve, and the fact this is a tournament close to his home. Muller plays tennis with narrow margins, when his serve is clicking he can win a bunch of matches, and when he has even a slight dip in form he’ll struggle against journeymen, but if he does start to click, he could perhaps beat Goffin, Dimitrov, and who knows, even Wawrinka if Stan has an off day, to reach the semis, it’s not likely but the chance is there on this surface.
Predictions Semis: Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Raonic
In what would be an AO rematch, Berdych is good indoors but we saw how well Murray played in their recent matchup, so the Brit has to be favored. Top 10 players Raonic and Wawrinka have a chance to meet for the fourth time here, I’m going with Wawrinka based on a gut feeling that he will be able to return well enough to beat Raonic, given he’s won all three previous meetings in that manner, but it is nearly a pure toss-up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these names in the final given their excellent form so far this season.
Final: Murray d. Wawrinka
This match has always been a close one, Murray has a 6-3 hard court h2h edge, with Wawrinka having won their last meeting (US Open 2013). Again this is a super hard pick to make and both would be deserving champions. I’ve been really pleased with what I’ve seen from Murray since last Fall, and given that I feel he’s back, I have him as the champion this week of a stacked Rotterdam event.
Memphis Open ATP World Tour 250 Memphis, Tennessee, USA February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Kevin Anderson (15)
3: John Isner (18)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (24)
In it’s second year as a 250 level, ATP only event, Memphis has three top 20 players, and a relatively quality international contingent to go with most of the top and up and coming US men.
First Round matchups to watch:
(WC)Jared Donaldson vs. (WC)Stefan Kozlov Two players who have been pegged as future leaders in US men’s tennis will meet early on in their careers as wild cards on US soil in Memphis. Donaldson, 18, just won the Maui challenger title, his first career Challenger title, after going on a tear of 17 match wins in a row last season. Kozlov, 17, who had more success at the junior level, reaching two junior grand slam finals last season (Wimbledon and the AO) won the Maui doubles title partnering with Donaldson. Both are at career high rankings (Kozlov nearing the top 400 and Donaldson inside the top 180). Donaldson at this point in his career is perhaps slightly ahead of the development curve compared to the younger Kozlov, and his recent form would make him the favorite, but I’m not sure the result of this match will mirror how their careers are going to turn out.
AO quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori has won this title twice in a row and he’s going for a three-peat this year. Malek Jaziri or a qualifier will be his first opponent, Jaziri, who has actually played well this year so far (reached the third round in Melbourne), got himself in hot water again after retiring from a set up against Denis Istomin in Montpellier. The stated reason was an “elbow injury” but Israeli player Dudi Sela had setup a meeting with the Tunisian in the next round, and Jaziri has withdrawn before to avoid facing an Israeli player. Jaziri also pulled out of doubles against an Israeli opponent in Montpellier, and this PR debacle of a situation is going to cloud him for quite some time, especially if he continues to not directly come out and address it. All the same expect to see Nishikori in the quarters, and perhaps get a rematch of last years final against Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Croat will need to defeat Lukas Lacko, who was awful in Zagreb last week, and then the Mikhail Kukushkin/qualifier winner. Kukushkin, who reached an ATP final in January in Sydney, is a rather streaky player, as is Karlovic, who lost his opening contest in Zagreb against Marcos Baghdatis in 3 sets. Kukushkin and Karlovic have never played, I’m simply picking Karlovic because of previous success and the quarterfinalist here is a toss-up. Regardless, expect Nishikori to blaze through to the semis.
John Isner has never played as well in Memphis as he has in most other US events, that said the American number one has Ivan Dodig or Teymuraz Gabashvili on his plate in round 2. Gabashvili played pretty well in the Dallas challenger, reaching the semifinals, while Dodig lost his second match in Zagreb to Marcel Granollers. This matchup could go either way, but given Gabashvili is already in the US, I have him into round 2, before falling victim to Isner. Benjamin Becker, who had his best result at a Grand Slam in a decade when he reached the third round in Melbourne this year is in this section as well as a potential quarterfinal opponent for Isner. Becker could potentially vanquish both parts of “Quisner” , as his round 1 opponent is Sam Querrey who is 0-3 in 2015. Look for Becker, who serves as well as Querrey, but is a superior ball striker and mover, to get into the quarterfinals after beating most likely Donaldson in round 2. This isn’t a bad draw for one of the young American wild cards, but more likely will serve as a learning experience with a round 2 loss against a more experienced player. Isner has a 3-0 h2h against Becker but they haven’t met since 2009 and Becker has played, perhaps the best tennis of his career into his 30s over the past 6 months or so, with that in mind, I have Becker as a surprise semifinalist this week.
Kevin Anderson reached the second week in Melbourne, and should expect to be matched serve for serve in his first match in Memphis, that is if Aussie Sam Groth, who reached the third round Melbourne, can defeat baseliner Rendy Lu in round 1. Both Groth and Anderson have had both good and bad results in 2015, and it’s a tough match to pick. Anderson, given his ranking and similar style of player, is in most cases better than Groth on the return and equal to him on serve, so the South African number one should get through with likely tiebreak sets. Groth has improved his return but Anderson was already a step ahead. American Steve Johnson has a great shot at a good result here, if he can beat Dudi Sela, and Marinko Matosevic/Dustin Brown, he’d setup a quarterfinal meeting with most likely Anderson. Johnson has yet to lose an opening round match in 2015, as he continues to show signs of improvement in his game. Brown was a point away from beating possible champion Jerzy Janowicz in Montpellier, but all the same I expect Johnson over Matosevic in round 2. Anderson is 3-0 against Johnson, including two wins last year and a win in straights this year in Auckland, with that in mind, the matchup favors Kev and he should reach the semis, even with a tricky path.
Alex Dolgopolov, who was injured in Australia with a leg problem could face Bernard Tomic in round 2, assuming the Aussie, who reached the second week in Melbourne, beats Igor Sijsling, who comes off the quarterfinals in Zagreb. Tomic is 7-3 in 2015 and appears to be focused and in the groove right now, you never know how long that will last, but he still should be the favorite to reach the quarterfinals at least here, with Dolgo in questionable physical condition and always unpredictable. Tomic and Dolgo have played some awesome h2h matches, with Tomic winning their most recent encounter last year in Sydney, and also a 5 setter at the 2012 AO (Dolgo had won three previous hc meeting before that one for a 3-2 hard court h2h edge), This is a must see match if it takes place, with talented shotmaking a given. Tomic should actually have an easier time in the quarters, Donald Young is an option, Adrian Mannarino is the 8 seed, and a pair of qualifiers are also here. This is a section a qualifier could get out of (Denis Kudla, and Thanasi Kokkinakis are potential qualifiers) but without knowing who the qualifiers will be, I have Mannarino into the quarters with wins over Young and a qualifier. Mannarino reached the final in Auckland last month and comes off a round 1 loss to Sijsling in Zagreb, while Young was a quarterfinalist in Auckland. Tomic should reach the semis out of this section that isn’t overly difficult.
Tomic should make the semis as a non seed given his draw, and one of Anderson/Johnson/Groth is also quite beatable, Tomic is 3-0 on hard courts against Anderson, including a win indoors last year in Stockholm, and thus he should be an a finalist this week if his play holds true to its current form. As usual the talent is there but the question is can Bernie remain focused and implement the game plan and discipline needed to translate that into results on a week to week basis?
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Becker
Tomic d. Anderson
Nishikori and Becker played one of the best regular ATP tour matches of the season last year in Tokyo, Nishikori won in a third set tiebreak, clawing back from a set down, as Becker was throwing his entire arsenal at Nishikori (and previously Nishikori beat Becker last year in Memphis). The Japanese number one should win, but this pair produce some great tennis on a consistent basis and it’s still worth watching.
As mentioned above, Tomic has a demonstrated edge against Anderson, and thus he should take advantage of his draw and make the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Tomic
Nishikori was a cut above Tomic in the Brisbane quarterfinals this year, given how that match went, I don’t expect this one to go any better, Nishikori is a strong favorite to win his third ATP Memphis title.
Brasil Open 2015
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Feliciano Lopez (14)
2: Tommy Robredo (17)
3: Fabio Fognini (22)
4: Leonardo Mayer (26)
The second stop on the Golden Swing has attracted a variety of accomplished clay court veterans and the best that home grown South American tennis has to offer presently.
The 24 year old Lajovic remains poised to a breakthrough at the ATP level, though his ranking is stuck in the 60-90 no mans land right now. Meanwhile the veteran Andujar will be pleased to return to clay court tennis this week, as hard courts have once again not been kind to him this year. Lajovic pushed possible Quito champion Feliciano Lopez (a current finalist) to 3 sets in the quarterfinals, very nearly knocking him out with a 1 set lead and break point chances in the second. Andujar has experience and he’s higher ranked but I’m going with an upset and placing Lajovic into the second round, as I feel he has the ability to win this.
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci beat Klizan last year in Sao Paulo, and comes off the Quito semis, where he dropped a tough match to Victor Estrella. The home player with have crowd support against the Slovak Klizan, who also lost to Estrella by a wider margin in the quarterfinals of that same event. Bellucci should be favored at home but his mentality is always a question mark, either way this should be a rowdy contest.
(5)Pablo Cuevas vs. Jiri Vesely
Cuevas had a fantastic year on the red stuff last year, going 47-9 on clay across all levels of tournament action with a pair of ATP titles to reach a career high ranking just inside the top 30. Now he will seek to repeat that showing, or even one up it this year, starting his ATP clay tournament calendar in Sao Paulo. In his first match on clay in 2015 he will face the young Czech Jiri Vesely who just won his maiden ATP title last month in Auckland. Vesely is also no slouch on clay, as he went 18-10 on the surface under the same standard as Cuevas. Vesely likely has more raw ability, but I have the experienced Cuevas, who plays some of his best tennis in these conditions, through to round 2.
Feliciano Lopez is seeking to binge his way through the Golden Swing and maintain, if not improve on his career high ranking inside the top 15. The current Quito finalist and possible champion will have his first match in SP against Juan Monaco, a former doubles partner, or a qualifier (young gun Elias Ymer and a host of second tier dirtballers are possible qualifiers). Monaco was once in the same position Lopez is in now, having reached a career high ranking of 10 in 2010, but it’s been all downhill from there for the declining Argentine, so even if he’s fatigued Flopez should flow his way into the quarters, while Monaco could struggle with a qualifier in round 1. Lopez could play a rematch of a strange, but quality semifinal match with his fellow Spanish Armada member Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. The Quito semifinalist has a qualifier first up and then the Lajovic/Andujar winner. This section presents a great chance for Lajovic to post consecutive quarters if Verdasco is exhausted. Otherwise I’m going to repeat what I picked last week, and put Verdasco into the semis, even though I was wrong on that in Quito. It was a close match and Lopez will have to play one extra match (and stay in Quito an extra day) compared to Verdasco. Something like that is enough to swing a result.
Leonardo Mayer. who went 19-10 on clay last year with an ATP title and final on the surface, both career bests, is another player that is happy to see the ATP tour return to clay. Mayer will face Spanish vet Albert Ramos or Brazilian WC Guillherme Clezar in round 1. Mayer is a cut above Ramos, and Ramos is more accomplished than Clezar, so expect Mayer to reach the quarters by defeating Ramos. Mayer vs. the Bellucci/Klizan winner is the most likely quarterfinal in this section. I favor Bellucci over Pablo Carreno Busta, assuming PCB beats Joao Souza, another Brazilian. Souza comes off a round 1 loss in Quito, while PCB will be making his 2015 clay debut after posting a 24-15 record on the surface last season in tournament play. Bellucci-PCB should be a good R2 match for a 250, with Bellucci has a home favorite. Mayer and Bellucci have a split h2h, when it comes to the slated quarterfinal (2-2), and Mayer has been better in recent career results, so I have Leo into the semis against Verdasco.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, who won this tournament in 2009 when it was in a different location, will open with Blaz Rola or Nicolas Almagro in round 2. Almagro is a three time former champion at the Brasil Open, and he’s 4-1 against Robredo on clay in his career. He’s played just a handful of matches since coming back from injury, but he looked healthy and improving in Melbourne (lost to Kei Nishikori in round 1), while Robredo is coming off his own injury and hasn’t completed any tournament matches this year. Rola hasn’t done anything special as of late, and I expect Almagro to keep improving against him, then get Robredo at a good time for that matchup to happen, and take him out as well to make the quarterfinals. At that stage Cuevas/Vesely could be his opponent, or defending champ Federico Delbonis who opens with a qualifier. Delbonis went 14-10 on clay last year in what was a breakthrough season into the top 60 for him. He has a lot of points to defend, and he’s not been gifted a lucky draw, as I feel Cuevas is superior on the surface, and will be the one to reach the quarters, though any of him, Vesely or Cuevas reaching the quarters wouldn’t shock me, as it’s a stacked section. Cuevas just beat Almagro in Sydney on HCs and has one previous H2H win against him, so for that reason I’m going with another (slight) upset and putting the Uruguayan number one into the semis from this stacked section.
Fabio Fognini is returning to clay in SP and looking to get his singles career back on track, having returned the Golden Swing he did so well in last year. Fogna will face his countryman Paolo Lorenzi or Diego Schwartzman in round 2. Lorenzi comes off quarters in Quito, while Schwartzman is ready to make his move to the next level, after an incredible 21-2 record on clay last year at the non ATP level (22-3 overall as he played almost entirely challengers to get into the top 70). I have the 22 year old making his move and defeating both Italians, Lorenzi and Fognini to reach the quarterfinals. SP is the type of tournament where rising players can have a shot to announce themselves to the tennis world, and Schwartzman is due. Fognini has been in crisis mode since the US Open and Schwartzman is good enough to at least give him a quality match, and given the current state of Fogna’s form, defeat him. Schwartzman also has a great chance at the semis, the only other seed left would be Santiago Giraldo, the Colombian who had a great year last year, dropped a bad match to Albert Montanes in Quito. He opens with WC Kimmer Coppejans, and should win, but I have Argentine grinder Carlos Berlocq beating him, given the 4-2 overall h2h in round 2. Berlocq went 18-6 on clay last year and beat Schwartzman in 3 sets to win a challenger title on clay (Porto Alegre). A quarterfinal between this is a bit of a coin flip but I have the experienced Berlocq into the semifinals against Cuevas.
I have the unseeded Berlocq in the semis this week as well, but Schwartzman gets the dark horse tag because he’s a young gun, and he could win his first ATP title this week if he rises to the occasion. Should he get through Lorenzi, Fognini and Berlocq/Giraldo, all accomplished veterans, Cuevas/Almagro/Robredo or some other player are all beatable semifinal opponents as Schwartzman would likely need to beat a bunch of veterans just to reach the final this week. It’s a relatively open tournament field and Verdasco/Mayer/Lopez aren’t unbeatable either in a possible final.
Predictions Semis: Mayer d. Verdasco
Cuevas d. Berlocq
Mayer should be fresher than Verdasco or Lopez, and you have to believe he can maintain the high level of play we saw from his last season, especially on his favorite surface.
Cuevas-Berlocq is another judgement call but Cuevas has won the last four clay court h2h meetings, so he should be favored.
Final: Mayer d. Cuevas
Mayer was slightly better last season and has a 2-1 clay h2h edge, this is a hard tournament to predict, but I have Mayer winning another ATP title, this time in Sao Paulo.
The Aussie Open is of course the tournament for picks over the next two weeks, as our draw challenge has a ton of points at stake, here are our experts take on what should happen in Melbourne park on the Men’s side.
2015 Australian Open Men’s Draw Picks
Australian Open
Steen Kirby’s picks
Steen’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 1
Steen’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 2
Steen’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 1
Steen’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 2
Steen Kirby 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 3
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Wawrinka vs. Ferrer, Berdych vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Berdych vs. Murray Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s picks
Chris de Waard’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 1
Chris de Waard’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 2
Chris de Waard’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 1
Chris de Waard’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 2
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Wawrinka vs. Nishikori, Berdych vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori Nadal vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s picks
Jeff McMillan’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 1
Jeff McMillan’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 2
Jeff McMillan’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 1
Jeff McMillan’s 2015 AUS Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 2
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Wawrinka vs. Nishikori, Tomic vs. Anderson, Murray vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Tomic vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Niall Clarke’s picks
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 1
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 2
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 1
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 2
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 3
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Monfils, Wawrinka vs. Nishikori, Berdych vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Federer Final: Wawrinka vs. Federer Champion: Wawrinka
Courtney Massey’s picks
Courtney Massey’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 1
Courtney Massey’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 2
Courtney Massey’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Top Half Part 3
Courtney Massey’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 1
Courtney Massey’s 2015 Aus Open Men’s Draw Bottom Half Part 2
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Mannarino, Wawrinka vs. Nishikori, Troicki vs. Anderson, Murray vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Troicki vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Djokovic is the majority pick for the AO champion, he gets the selection of four out of our five experts. Niall went with defending champion Wawrinka to win, while Federer is perhaps a slight favorite to make the final with three out of five experts going with the legend. Murray and Nadal also get plugs to make the final, and a shot out to Jeff (Bernard Tomic), and Courtney (Viktor Troicki) for having bold picks for semifinalists. The outcome will be interesting to watch.
It was a poor week for everyone in terms of accuracy as the draw was full of unexpected results, Jeff takes the title by virtue of having Anderson in the semis, and nobody did well this week.
Sydney 1: Steen (24 points) (+250 overall)
2: Chris (16 points) (+150 overall)
3: Jeff (16 points) (+150 overall)
4:Courtney (10 points) (+90 overall)
5: Niall (10 points) (+90 overall)
Likewise everyone did very poorly in Sydney as two qualifiers made the final, Steen had Muller and Tomic in the quarters and that was enough to have him finish in first place this week. Niall and Courtney finished with what should probably be a record low of 10 points all season.
Overall standings (after week 2)
1: Steen: 830 ranking points (+400 this week)
2: Chris: 730 ranking points (+300 this week)
3: Jeff: 640 ranking points (+400 this week)
4: Niall: 565 ranking points (+180 this week)
5: Courtney: 525 ranking points (+135 this week)
Steen pulls ahead of Chris this week since he took a title and got finals points in the other event, Jeff also has a big boost with his title and final points, he moves into third place early on in the season, while Courtney slipped down to fifth.
Round 2 Matches: Robredo vs. Gonzalez, Ramos vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Mannarino, Falla vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Coric, Thiem vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Young, Vesely vs. Gulbis Quarterfinals: Robredo vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Gulbis Semifinals: Lu vs. Bautista Agut, Johnson vs. Gulbis Final: Bautista Agut vs. Johnson Champion: Bautista Agut
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Robredo vs. Gonzalez, Lorenzi vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Mannarino, Falla vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Coric, Thiem vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Young, Bellucci vs. Gulbis Quarterfinals: Robredo vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Giraldo, Coric vs. Thiem, Young vs. Gulbis Semifinals: Robredo vs. Bautista Agut, Coric vs. Gulbis Final: Bautista Agut vs. Gulbis Champion: Gulbis
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Robredo vs. Gonzalez, Lorenzi vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Mannarino, Falla vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Coric, Thiem vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Young, Bellucci vs. Gulbis Quarterfinals: Robredo vs. Monaco, Bautista Agut vs. Giraldo, Coric vs. Thiem, Soeda vs. Gulbis Semifinals: Robredo vs. Bautista Agut, Coric vs. Gulbis Final: Bautista Agut vs. Gulbis Champion: Gulbis
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Robredo vs. Gonzalez, Lorenzi vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Delbonis, Falla vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Coric, Thiem vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Young, Bellucci vs. Gulbis Quarterfinals: Robredo vs.Lu , Bautista Agut vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Thiem, Garcia-Lopez vs. Gulbis Semifinals: Robredo vs. Bautista Agut, Thiem vs. Gulbis Final: Bautista Agut vs. Gulbis Champion: Bautista Agut
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Robredo vs. Gonzalez, Lorenzi vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Mannarino, Falla vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Coric, Thiem vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Young, Bellucci vs. Gulbis Quarterfinals: Robredo vs. Lu, Mannarino vs. Giraldo, Johnson vs. Anderson, Young vs. Bellucci Semifinals: Lu vs. Giraldo, Anderson vs. Young Final: Lu vs. Anderson Champion: Anderson
RBA and Gulbis appear to be relatively consensus picks to do well this week, perhaps we will get another rivalry matchup between the two in the final, in addition Borna Coric, Rendy Lu and Tommy Robredo are favored to have good weeks.
Round 2 Matches: Fognini vs. Del Potro, Istomin vs. Almagro, Benneteau vs. Pospisil, Janowicz vs. Becker, Querrey vs. Muller, Tomic vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs. Nieminen, Bolelli vs. Goffin Quarterfinals: Del Potro vs. Istomin, Pospisil vs. Janowicz, Muller vs. Tomic, Klizan vs. Goffin Semifinals: Istomin vs. Pospisil, Tomic vs. Klizan Final: Pospisil vs. Klizan Champion: Pospisil
Chris De Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Fognini vs. Stakhovsky, Istomin vs. Almagro, Benneteau vs. Pospisil, Kyrgios vs. Mayer, Chardy vs. Groth, Tomic vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs Andujar, Bolelli vs. Goffin Quarterfinals: Stakhovsky vs. Almagro,, Pospisil vs. Kyrgios, Chardy vs. Tomic, Klizan vs. Goffin Semifinals: Almagro vs. Kyrgios, Tomic vs. Goffin Final: Kyrgios vs. Goffin Champion: Goffin
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Fognini vs. Stakhovsky, Istomin vs. Cuevas, Benneteau vs. Seppi, Kyrgios vs. Becker, Chardy vs. Groth, Tomic vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs. Nieminen, Matosevic vs. Goffin Quarterfinals: Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Seppi vs. Kyrgios, Chardy vs. Tomic, Klizan vs. Goffin Semifinals: Istomin vs. Kyrgios, Chardy vs. Goffin Final: Istomin vs. Chardy Champion: Chardy
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Fognini vs. Stakhovsky, Istomin vs. Almagro, Benneteau vs. Seppi, Kyrgios vs. Mayer, Chardy vs. Groth, Tomic vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs Nieminen, Matosevic vs. Goffin Quarterfinals: Fognini vs. Almagro, Benneteau vs. Kyrgios, Chardy vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs. Goffin Semifinals: Fognini vs. Kyrgios, Kohlschreiber vs. Goffin Final: Kyrgios vs. Goffin Champion: Goffin
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Fognini vs. Del Potro, Istomin vs. Almagro, Benneteau vs. Seppi, Kyrgios vs. Mayer, Chardy vs. Groth, Tomic vs. Kohlschreiber, Klizan vs Andujar, Matosevic vs. Goffin Quarterfinals: Fognini vs. Istomin, Seppi vs. Mayer, Groth vs. Tomic, Klizan vs. Goffin Semifinals: Istomin vs. Seppi, Tomic vs. Goffin Final: Istomin vs. Goffin Champion: Goffin
Three of our five experts have David Goffin winning the title this week, while opinions are mixed on Denis Istomin, Nick Kyrgios and Vasek Pospisil among others, it’s a week before a slam and this tournament has a wide open field.
everyone had perfect semis except Jeff, while Chris outdid Courtney in the early rounds and given the fact they both had Federer as champion, they finished 1/2 in Brisbane this week. Shout out to Courtney for picking Duckworth over Simon in a big upset no one else picked.
Steen finished first and Jeff finished second because they were the only two who had Berdych in the final, Steen had Ferrer in the semis and that was the difference.
Chennai 1: Niall (104 points) (+250 overall)
2: Courtney (102 points) (+150 overall)
3: Steen (72 points) (+90 overall)
4: Chris (62 points) (+90 overall)
5: Jeff (60 points) (+45 overall)
Having Wawrinka as the champ and RBA in the semis made the difference for Niall as he won the Chennai tournament this week. Courtney also had Wawrinka as the champ and outpaced the rest of the field, with the difference between the top two being the fact Niall did one pick better in round 2.
Chris and Steen both took titles and got semifinal points in two other tournaments, which puts them out in the lead, while Courtney getting final points from two events puts her in third. A dual champion could add 500 points to their total this week.
Tennis Atlantic 2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 1 (Brisbane, Doha, and Chennai) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Now that we have a bevy of ATP World Tour experts on staff at Tennis Atlantic, we will be having a weekly ATP pick em draw challenge, with a prize going to the winner at the end of the year. Each of our experts, Steen Kirby, Jeff McMillan, Chris de Waard, Courtney Massey, and Niall Clarke will be submitting their predictions for each ATP tournament draw and once the tournaments conclude we will review how they did compared to the actual results.
Points will be awarded for correct picks with 2 points for first round winners, 4 points for second round winners, and so on, doubling for each round. This week with three 250 level tournaments, the points system will go 2 points for correct first round picks, 4 points for correct quarterfinalists, 8 points for correct semifinalists, 16 points for correct finalists, and 32 points for selecting the correct tournament champion. Best of luck to all of our experts with their picks this week!
2015 Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp ATP picks
Three of our five experts picked Nishikori as champion, while two have Federer, and four of the five predict a Nishikori vs. Federer final. Only one expert has the semifinalists as anything other than Federer, Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori, this week down under.
Steen Kirby’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Federer vs. Millman, Nieminen vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Chardy, Klizan vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Hewitt, Kukushkin vs. Raonic, Benneteau vs. Tomic, Johnson vs. Nishikori Quarterfinals: Federer vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Klizan, Anderson vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Tomic Semifinals: Federer vs. Dimitrov, Raonic vs. Nishikori Final: Federer vs. Nishikori Champion: Nishikori
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Federer vs. Qualifier, Nieminen vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Chardy, Klizan vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Hewitt, Kukushkin vs. Raonic, Kokkinakis vs. Tomic, Johnson vs. Nishikori Quarterfinals: Federer vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Klizan, Anderson vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Tomic Semifinals: Simon vs. Dimitrov, Raonic vs. Nishikori Final: Dimitrov vs. Nishikori Champion: Nishikori
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Federer vs. Millman, Nieminen vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Chardy, Klizan vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Groth, Kukushkin vs. Raonic, Kokkinakis vs. Tomic, Johnson vs. Nishikori Quarterfinals: Federer vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Tomic Semifinals: Federer vs. Dimitrov, Raonic vs. Nishikori Final: Federer vs. Nishikori Champion: Federer
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Federer vs. Qualifier, Nieminen vs. Duckworth, Dimitrov vs. Chardy, Klizan vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Hewitt, Qualifier vs. Raonic, Benneteau vs. Tomic, Johnson vs. Nishikori Quarterfinals: Federer vs. Nieminen, Dimitrov vs. Klizan, Anderson vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Benneteau Semifinals: Federer vs. Dimitrov, Raonic vs. Nishikori Final: Federer vs. Nishikori Champion: Federer
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Federer vs. Qualifier, Nieminen vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Chardy, Klizan vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Hewitt, Kukushkin vs. Raonic, Benneteau vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Nishikori Quarterfinals: Federer vs. Simon, Dimitrov vs. Klizan, Hewitt vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Tomic Semifinals: Federer vs. Dimitrov, Raonic vs. Nishikori Final: Federer vs. Nishikori Champion: Nishikori
There is a full consensus on Djokovic taking the Doha title in his tournament debut this week, while our experts are divided 3-2 on whether he will face Berdych or Nadal in that final. When it comes to the semis, there is also a split decision between whether Djokovic will face Kohlschreiber or Ferrer, while everyone seems to agree the 2 and 3 seeds Nadal and Berdych will reach the semis.
Steen Kirby’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Stakhovsky, Youzhny vs. Karlovic, Ferrer vs. Verdasco, Brown vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Becker, Berdych vs. Qualifier, Jaziri vs. Mayer, Dodig vs. Nadal Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Karlovic, Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Berdych, Mayer vs. Nadal Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Nadal vs. Berdych Final: Djokovic vs. Berdych Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Stakhovsky, Youzhny vs. Rosol, Ferrer vs. Verdasco, Brown vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Bolelli, Berdych vs. Monaco, Jaziri vs. Seppi, Dodig vs. Nadal Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Rosol, Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber, Bolelli vs. Berdych, Seppi vs. Nadal Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Kohlschreiber, Nadal vs. Berdych Final: Djokovic vs. Berdych Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Stakhovsky, Youzhny vs. Karlovic, Ferrer vs. Gabashvili, Brown vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Bolelli, Berdych vs. Monaco, Souza vs. Mayer, Dodig vs. Nadal Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Karlovic, Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Berdych, Mayer vs. Nadal Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Nadal vs. Berdych Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Champion: Djokovic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Stakhovsky, Youzhny vs. Karlovic, Ferrer vs. Verdasco, Brown vs. Kohlschreiber, Andujar vs. Becker, Berdych vs. Qualifier, Seppi vs. Jaziri, Dodig vs. Nadal Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Youzhny, Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber, Becker vs. Berdych, Seppi vs. Nadal Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Nadal vs. Berdych Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Champion: Djokovic
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Stakhovsky, Youzhny vs. Rosol, Ferrer vs. Verdasco, Brown vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Bolelli, Berdych vs. Qualifier, Souza vs. Mayer, Dodig vs. Nadal Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Youzhny, Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet vs. Berdych, Mayer vs. Nadal Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Kohlschreiber, Nadal vs. Berdych Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Champion: Djokovic
There are a variety of picks for champion this week among our experts, Goffin and Wawrinka are picked by two experts each, and Bautista Agut was also selected. Three of the five experts have Goffin, and Bautista Agut in the final, while only two have defending champion and top seed Stan Wawrinka. Lu, Garcia-Lopez and Lopez are all picks to reach the semifinals while Chris is predicting a run to the quarterfinals from wild card Ramkumar Ramanathan, and Courtney has some unseeded players reaching the quarterfinals.
Steen Kirby’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Wawrinka vs. Coric, Sijsling vs. Muller, Goffin vs. Berankis, Vesely vs. Granollers, Lu vs. Gonzalez, Gojowcyzk vs. Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez vs. Ito, Lacko vs. Lopez Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Muller, Goffin vs. Vesely, Lu vs. Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez vs. Lopez Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Bautista Agut vs. Lopez Final: Goffin vs. Bautista Agut Champion: Bautista Agut
Jeff McMillan’s predictions:
Round 2 Matches: Wawrinka vs. Haase, Ymer vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Berankis, Vesely vs. Granollers, Devvarman vs. Carreno Busta, Falla vs. Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez vs. Ito, Lacko vs. Lopez Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Granollers, Devvarman vs. Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez vs. Lopez Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Bautista Agut vs. Garcia-Lopez Final: Goffin vs. Garcia-Lopez Champion: Goffin
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Wawrinka vs. Coric, Ymer vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Berankis, Vesely vs. Granollers, Lu vs. Carreno Busta, Gojowczyk vs. Bautista Agut, Qualifier vs. Ramanathan, Lacko vs. Lopez Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Granollers, Lu vs. Bautista Agut, Ramanathan vs. Lopez Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Bautista Agut vs. Lopez Final: Goffin vs. Bautista Agut Champion: Goffin
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Wawrinka vs. Coric, Sijsling vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Qualifier, Vesely vs. Granollers, Lu vs. Gonzalez, Falla vs. Bautista Agut, Ito vs. Qualifier, Lacko vs. Lopez Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Sijsling, Goffin vs. Vesely, Gonzalez vs. Bautista Agut, Ito vs. Lopez Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Bautista Agut vs. Lopez Final: Wawrinka vs. Lopez Champion: Wawrinka
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Wawrinka, Coric, Sijsling, Roger-Vasselin, Goffin, Berankis, Qualifier, Granollers, Lu, Carreno Busta, Falla, Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez, Ito, Lacko, Lopez Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Roger-Vasselin, Goffin vs. Granollers, Lu vs. Bautista Agut, Garcia-Lopez vs. Lopez Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Lu, Bautista Agut vs. Lopez Final:Wawrinka vs. Bautista Agut Champion: Wawrinka
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