Novak Djokovic defended his BNP Paribas Open title with a 6-3 6-7 6-2 win over Roger Federer, a rematch of both the Dubai final, and the 2014 Indian Wells final. With the win, the world number one tied Federer with four career Indian Wells titles. In the final, Djokovic had the upper hand early, and very well could have closed the match out in 2 sets, from a set and a break (4-2) up, but Federer refused to go away quietly, forcing a second set tiebreak and later a third set, as Djokovic threw in a pair of double faults in the tiebreak. As expected, the slower, higher bouncing courts of Indian Wells seem to disadvantage Federer’s preferred attacking style of play, as Djokovic broke early in set 3, and though Federer would pull it back to 2-2, he lost the plot from there as Djokovic slammed the door shut for the final time.
Novak only dropped the one set to Federer all tournament, as he demolished Marcos Baghdatis, slipped past a surprisingly valiant Albert Ramos, who played the best of any opponent against Novak before the final, and gritted past John Isner with a break, and a tiebreak victory to reach the quarterfinals. Djokovic got a walkover in the quarters, as Bernard Tomic saw his great tournament derailed by a host of injuries including a back problem and wisdom teeth pain. The lack of match play didn’t disadvantage Djokovic in the slighest in the semis, as he crushed Andy Murray 6-2 6-3, the Scots serve deserted him in the match.
Federer was also with a blemish on his record before the final, sweeping Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Tomas Berdych, before edging past Milos Raonic with a break of serve in each set against the Manitoba missile. His tennis was fresh, crisp, and aggressively brutal all week, and on top of that, he played excellent defense, but Djokovic is a different caliber of player compared to any other on the tour. It was also a good tournament for Raonic as the Canadian scored his first ever win over Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals with a clutch 3 set win coming back from a set down and improving the whole match.
The successful pairing of Sock and Vasek Pospisil won their second elite caliber doubles title together (Wimbledon 2014 the other), as they beat the equally successful pairing of singles players Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli in a highly anticipated doubles final. It was an incredible week for Sock in his first tournament back from hip surgery, as he reached the round of 16 in singles with a trio of comeback wins from a set down, along with winning the doubles title.
She just wouldn’t stay down, would she? Simona Halep went through the wars with former world number one Jelena Jankovic, but she came up good in the end, coming from behind to claim her biggest title to date.
The World #3 found it difficult in the early goings, as Jankovic came out firing. The Serbian seemed to have engaged 2010 mode, as she raced to a set lead. The backhands of the Serbian were penetrating, and her movement on point as Halep struggled to play herself into the match. The stat of eight winners and 18 unforced errors told the Romanian’s first set story. Unusual stats for the world number three.
The second set was continuing in the same vein, with Jankovic breaking early at 1-1. Halep broke back as she continued to fight, but Jankovic broke again to earn the opportunity to serve for the championship. At this point, the result looked never in doubt. Jankovic was playing well, whilst Halep wasn’t hitting her best form. Despite that, the world number three’s grit and determination shone through as she broke back, and then went on to take the set 7-5. A crushing blow for Jankovic, who was the better player throughout the first two sets.
The third set proceeded to be a mess with both players struggling to hold serve. Jankovic was the first to strike, but the Serb was immediately broken back. Eventually, Halep broke to serve for the match, but like Jankovic in the second set, she failed to take her chance. Fortunately for the Romanian however, she had another opportunity to claim the title, as Jankovic served to stay in the match. The 18th seed hadn’t held serve since the beginning of the set, and she wasn’t about to here. The final game came, and then it went, as Halep’s mental strength and resolve came to the forefront once again. A break to love sealed the match and the title for Simona, as she closed it out 2-6,7-5,6-4 in one of the most dramatic finals in recent memory.
The World No.3 gave the former World No. 1 some major props in her speech at the trophy ceremony.
“First of all I want to congratulate Jelena – you were amazing,” Halep said. “Well done for a great two weeks here. You did a great job, and it was an amazing final. I’m really happy I could win today.”
“This is my biggest title and I’ll never forget it.”
Halep’s previous best was at Premier 5 level in Doha last year and Dubai this year. This was her first Premier Mandatory triumph, and this achievement was capped off by the Romanian jumping to number one in the race rankings, overtaking Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova.
Halep wasn’t at her best, but the world #3 showed tremendous fighting spirit to overcome an inspired Jankovic. Simona didn’t have the greatest start to the tournament, dropping sets in the second and third rounds to Darila Gavrilova and Vavara Lepchenko. The Romanin’s most impressive performance came against in form Karolina Pliskova, as she dispatched the rising Czech in straight sets. After coming from behind to beat Carla Suarez Navarro in the Quarter Finals, the world number three’s fortune began to look good. Serena Williams’ return to Indian Wells was unfortunately ended at the semi-final stage as the world number one was forced to withdraw with a knee injury.
Jelena Jankovic can be proud of her efforts, but unfortunately despite being the better player throughout, she couldn’t find enough to overcome Halep on this this occasion. The Serb took advantage of the bottom half of the draw falling apart, as Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic and Genie Bouchard’s tournaments all ended earlier than most expected. Despite the top seeds falling, the road to the final wasn’t easy for Jankovic, as she had to overcome rising stars Madison Keys, and Belinda Bencic before coming from behind to beat an in form Sabine Lisicki. The German shocked everyone by making the semi-finals of an event she had previously struggled hugely in, but her dream run eventually came to an end at the hands of Jelena. Still, she wasn’t expected to even make it this far, so Jankovic can certainly look at this tournament as a confidence booster despite what happened in the final. Her efforts are even more miraculous given she was injured prior to the tournament.
“I was limping three days before the tournament started,” Jankovic said. “I was actually in doubt if I could even play. When I came to these courts, on the first day I hadn’t hit a ball for 10 days. I was hitting, but I was standing. I was not moving.” She added, “But I was hitting the ball so great without any practice. I had a good feeling. I felt so great. I was just so happy to be out there again. But I didn’t think I would make the finals after not preparing.”
The doubles was won by Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza. The top seeds overcame second seeded Russian pair, Ekaterina Makarova and Elena Vesnina 6-3,6-4.
Courtside Videocast Episode 6 by Tennis Atlantic and The Grandstand, Indian Wells ATP/WTA Midway Discussion Staff, Tennis Atlantic
On episode 6 of the Courtside Videocast, Steen Kirby, Courtney Massey, Joe Craven and Niall Clarke of Tennis Atlantic got together to talk about the midway point of the 2015 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Both the ATP and WTA results thus far were discussed, and major topics included revisions to the hawkeye challenger system, Ernests Gulbis recent struggles, American men’s players strong showings (Steve Johnson, Jack Sock, Donald Young), and the results of the Aussie contingent as well (Thanasi Kokkinakis, Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios). On the WTA side Flavia Pennetta, and the upsets in the draw by the likes of Timea Bacsinzsky and Caroline Garcia were reviewed.
We hope you enjoy this edition of the show, and as usual feedback is encouraged!
The Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells is the only tournament for the next couple of weeks, the worlds best take to the hard courts of the California desert, and here are our analysts predictions as to what the results will be. Joining us this week and for the rest of the season is our new writer Joe Craven, who will be adding his 2 cents to the discussion. A big welcome to Joe, and without further adieu, here are the picks.
Steen Kirby predictions:
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Melzer, Lajovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Monaco, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Coric, Dodig vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Kukushkin, Becker vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Groth vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Matosevic, De Bakker vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Harrison vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Brown, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Ito, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Krajinovic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Bolt, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Stakhovsky vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Krajicek, Lu vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Youzhny, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Becker, Mannarino vs. Groth, Lopez vs. De Bakker, Verdasco vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov, Robredo vs. Kyrgios, Simon vs. Gasquet, Young vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Johnson vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Mannarino, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Kyrgios, Gasquet vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Melzer, Lajovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Monaco, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Coric, Dodig vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Kukushkin, Smyczek vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Groth vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Matosevic, Nieminen vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Harrison vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Golubev, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Jaziri, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Sijsling vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Haase, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Stakhovsky vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Krajicek, Lu vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Youzhny, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Groth, Lopez vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov, Robredo vs. Kyrgios, Simon vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Johnson vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Isner, Garcia-Lopez vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Fognini, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Kyrgios, Simon vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Melzer, Delbonis vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Monaco, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Haider-Maurer, Sousa vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Pospisil, Smyczek vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Gimeno-Traver vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Roger-Vasselin, Nieminen vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Fish vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Brown, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Ito, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Sijsling vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Bolt, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Istomin, Lu vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Hanescu, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Monaco vs. Kokkinakis, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Smyczek, Fognini vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Anderson, Monaco vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Fognini, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Dimitrov, Simon vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Karlovic, Bautista Agut vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Dimitrov vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Nadal vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Melzer, Lajovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Monaco, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Haider-Maurer, Sousa vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Kukushkin, Smyczek vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Groth vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Roger-Vasselin, De Bakker vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Harrison vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Brown, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Jaziri, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Krajinovic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Bolt, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Stakhovsky vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Krajicek, Sock vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Hanescu, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Smyczek, Mannarino vs. Groth, Lopez vs. Cuevas, Thiem vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov, Brown vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Johnson vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Sock, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Isner, Garcia-Lopez vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Manarino, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Dimitrov, Gasquet vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Berdych, Sock vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Nadal vs. Wawrinka Final: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Novikov, Delbonis vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Monaco, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Coric, Dodig vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Pospisil, Becker vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Groth vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Matosevic, Nieminen vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Harrison vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Brown, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Jaziri, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Krajinovic vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Haase, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Istomin, Lu vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Hanescu, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Kokkinakis, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov, Brown vs. Kyrgios, Simon vs. Gasquet, Young vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Johnson vs. Berdych, Istomin vs. Lu, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Isner, Cilic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Fognini, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Dimitrov, Simon vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Johnson, Lu vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Simon, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Raonic vs. Wawrinka Final: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka Champion: Djokovic
Joe Craven’s predictions
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Baghdatis, Troicki vs. Benneteau, Isner vs. Melzer, Delbonis vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Gabashvili, Kokkinakis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Haider-Maurer, Sousa vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Pospisil, Smyczek vs. Kohlschreiber, Fognini vs. Mannarino, Groth vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Roger-Vasselin, Nieminen vs. Cuevas, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Harrison vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Bolelli, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Robredo vs. Brown, Kyrgios vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Jaziri, Estrella vs. Gasquet, Chardy vs. Young, Sijsling vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Haase, Klizan vs. Rosol, Karlovic vs. Granollers, Stakhovsky vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Krajicek, Sock vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Youzhny, Janowicz vs. Federer Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Troicki, Isner vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Garcia-Lopez, Tomic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Smyczek, Fognini vs. Gulbis, Lopez vs. Nieminen, Verdasco vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov, Robredo vs. Dimitrov, Simon vs. Gasquet, Young vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Karlovic vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Muller, Seppi vs. Federer Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Manarino, Lopez vs. Nishikori, Raonic vs Kyrgios, Gasquet vs. Nadal, Wawrinka vs. Berdych, Bautista Agut vs. Federer Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Ferrer, Murray vs. Nishikori, Dimitrov vs. Simon, Wawrinka vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Nishikori, Simon vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Djokovic is the unanimous pick to win the title, opinions are mixed on how Nadal, Murray, Nishikori, Federer, Wawrinka and other big names will fare
Niall rocketed from last place to second with his sweep of the weeks tournaments, Jeff had a strong week prior but struggled this week and dropped back into last, while Steen still has an edge in the overall horse race.
*As mentioned, Joe will be joining the draw challenge partially through as he is now joining the TA staff team, he has been awarded a mutually decided 3000 overall points so that he has a fair enough footing to compete with the others.
Veterans Melzer and Berrer, ATP Main Draw Débutante Alex Bolt among 2015 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Qualifiers Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
The final stage of qualification got underway on Wednesday with both old and new players booking their place into the 2015 Indian Wells main draw. 8 of the 25 seeded player’s booked their place, while four unseeded players also qualified.
Jurgen Melzer continued his impressive Indian Wells record by maneuvering his way past Michael Russell to make the Indian Wells main draw for the 12th consecutive year. The former top 10 player spend just over two hours on the court before beating Russell 6-4 5-7 6-3. The 33-year-old Austrian is currently ranked 86th in the world, however he is yet to win back to back matches in any main draw this year.
Borna Coric was pushed all the way in the final set by 2011 French Open boy’s champion Bjorn Fratangelo before reaching his first ever master’s main draw by taking the match 6-1 2-6 7-6(9-7). After easily taking the first set, Coric had a taste of his own medicine when Fratangelo fought back to square the match. The American also broke Coric in the final set to lead 4-2 and be only two games away from a landmark victory. The lead was however short lived as Coric battled back to take proceedings into a deciding tie-break where he finally took it 9-7. To make the win even more special, the 18-year-old had to save three match points (one while trailing 4-5 and two in the tie-break) to the heartbreak of his rival and the home crowd.
Similar to Coric, Australia’s Alex Bolt will also embark on new territory following a 6-3 7-5 win over James McGee. Throughout the match Bolt remained strong on his serve as his Irish rival failed to break him during the one hour and eleven minute match.The 22-year-old Australian is currently at a career ranking high of 164 in the world.
Bolt will be joined in the main draw by his fellow countryman James Duckworth, who endured a tough qualification match against Rajeev Ram. Duckworth, who reached the second round of the Australian Open earlier this year and has been in good form as of late, was a set and break down against the experienced Ram before climbing his way back into the match and eventually take it 2-6 7-5 6-4 to make his first ever Masters main draw.
Unfortunately, Luke Saville was unable to complete the Australian hatrick of qualifiers as he was knocked out in straight sets by Serbian 8th seed Filip Krajinović. After losing three out of his four service games in the first set, Saville put up a tougher fight in the second set, however, it wasn’t enough to tame Krajinović as he went on to take it 6-1 7-6 in 99 minutes.
One of the biggest stories of the day was Dennis Novikov’s epic three set win against Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a player ranked 162 places higher than him. Novikov, who beat Jerzy Janowicz in the first round of the 2012 US Open, was behind 3-6 0-2 before fighting his way back to take it in three sets. The win means that he will be the 11th American man to participate in the main draw. Following his win, Novikov expressed his delight on his Twitter account.
Happy to qualify for my first Masters 1000 this week! Just a taste of what is to come this year hopefully. #atp#IndianWells#Masters1000
There was some consolation for Gimeno-Traver as he received a lucky loser spot into the main draw.
Despite approaching the end of his tennis career, Victor Hănescu has still demonstrated that he can play among the big guns. The world 146 was pushed all the way by Nikoloz Basilashvili before finally taking it 3-6 6-4 7-6(7-5). Hanescu has reached the second round at Indian Wells on five separate occasions. The most recent of these was last year where he beat Stéphane Robert in the first round before losing to Milos Raonic in the next round.
Germany’s Michael Berrer cruised into the main stage of Indian Wells with a straight forward 6-4 6-4 win against wildcard entry Mackenzie McDonald. McDonald, who has only played in two Future tournaments this year, was no match for the experienced Berrer on the day, as Berrer qualified for the third time on the ATP World Tour this year.
Yannick Hanfmann, the best player on the USC tennis team, was unable to produce another sensational upset as he bowed out in three sets to Edouard Roger-Vasselin. In the first round the world 819 stunned 10th seed Paul-Henri Mathieu. Despite the loss, Hanfmann can still be fairly satisfied with how he played as he took Mathieu, a player ranked 700 places higher than him, to three sets.
James Ward was unable to reproduce his Davis Cups Heroics as he could only win four games against Mischa Zverev. Last weekend, Ward staged an outstanding comeback to beat John Isner in five sets to help Great Britain beat America in round 1 of the Davis Cup. All the effort by Ward has now, however appeared to catch up with him physically as the former world number 64 cruised to a 6-3 6-1 win. Zverev, formerly a top 100 player, had to win the pre-qualifier to get into the qualifying draw and he certainly made the best of it.
Frank Dancevic booked his placed in the main draw of the Indian Wells Masters for the first time since 2007 following a three set win against Germany’s Philipp Petzschner. The Canadian was in big trouble as he trailed a set and 0-3 before staging a mighty comeback to take the second set to his opponents surprise. Unfortunately for Petzschner, the momentum that he generated in the first set and at the start of the second rapidly evaporated as Dancevic save five break points to comfortably take the final set with the final score being 5-7 6-4 6-1.
Finally, rounding competing the list of 12 qualifiers is Thiemo de Bakker. Baker, who reached the third round at the Indian Wells Masters back in 2010, brushed aside, young American, and Californian teenager Taylor Harry Fritz 6-4 6-4. Fritz has a promising future, but it will take some time to develop his game towards the ATP level. De Bakker has qualified for four ATP events this year and appears to be nearing critical mass.
In the main draw, Novikov will face Melzer to earn the right to face John Isner, Coric will face Andreas Haider-Maurer for the right to face Bernard Tomic, Mischa Zverev will face Adrian Mannarino, before a possible encounter with Fabio Fognini, Gimeno-Traver will play Sam Groth as a lucky loser with the winner to face Ernests Gulbis. Roger-Vasselin will face Marinko Matosevic with Feliciano Lopez to follow if he wins, De Bakker will play Jarkko Nieminen with a good draw that would see him facing Pablo Cuevas in round 2. Duckworth will play youngster Dominic Thiem with Fernando Verdasco as the seed in waiting, Dancevic will face Alex Dolgopolov, with Santiago Giraldo as the seed in waiting, Berrer will have a good chance against Victor Estrella, with Gilles Simon on deck, Rafa Nadal awaits the winner of Krajinovic and Igor Sijsling, and if Bolt beats Robin Haase he would face Stan Wawrinka next. Last but not least, Hanescu will face fellow veteran Mikhail Youzhny, with another veteran, Andreas Seppi, lurking.
Episode 5 of Tennis Atlantic/The Grandstand’s Courtside Videocast Indian Wells Draw Talk+Davis Cup World Group Round 1 In Review Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Steen Kirby, Courtney Massey, Niall Clarke and Joe Craven, all of Tennis Atlantic, got together on Google Hangouts to discuss the 2015 ATP and WTA Indian Wells BNP Paribas Open Draws, making their predictions and previewing all of the action from March 12-March 22. In addition, Joe, who was a credentialed journalist at the GB vs. USA Davis Cup tie in Glasgow, gave some insights on that experience, and a discussion of the 2015 World Group round was held. Last, and certainly not least, Steen and Courtney debated on whether the Indian Wells tournament should be moved or demoted, with Steen saying yes, and Courtney saying no, while Joe also gave his 2 cents. Check out the link below and enjoy! Comments and feedback are greatly appreciated.
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview
The first Masters event of the 2015 ATP World Tour Season is here, as it’s time for the celebrated, modern, BNP Paribas Open from the sweltering hard courts of the California desert in Indian Wells. I’m not as fond of Larry Ellison’s oasis in the desert as many fans and players are, but all the same the season is beginning to kick into high gear as all but a handful of the worlds best men’s tennis players will be battling for points, prize money and prestige over the next two weeks.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
March 12-March 22, 2015
Prize Money: $5.381,235
Indian Wells put up even more cash this year, as prize money increased by over half a million dollars compared to 2014.
Top 8 seeds (All 32 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Rafael Nadal (3)
4: Andy Murray (4)
5: Kei Nishkori (5)
6: Milos Raonic (6)
7: Stan Wawrinka (7)
8: David Ferrer (8)
Notable players missing Indian Wells include a pair of top Frenchmen, Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who are joined in absence by David Goffin, Lleyton Hewitt, Leonardo Mayer, and Nicolas Almagro.
First round matchups to watch:
Jan–Lennard Struff vs. (WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Both players come off putting in hard work in the Davis Cup over the weekend. Kokkinakis helped lead Australia to a victory in their tie, while Struff put in a valiant effort but lost to Gilles Simon in 5 sets. Struff has a h2h win on clay, but he’s just 4-7 on the season in all competitive matches. Kokkinakis by contrast has been on the rise with a 12-5 record in the same span including three straight qualifications for ATP main draw events in Memphis, Delray Beach and Acapulco, all on hard courts. Struff should make this match closer than expected but the young gun Australian should prevail.
Kukushkin beat Pospisil at Indian Wells last year in straights, and he may be on track to do so again this year after two massive straight set wins over top 50 players Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi in Davis Cup over the weekend to help his nation clinch their tie. The unpredictable, and undersized ballstriker Kukushkin, who has an ATP hard court final on his resume this season (Sydney), snapped a four match losing streak with those Davis Cup wins. Pospisil by contrast went 1-1 in Davis Cup play, and has only won consecutive matches this year in one tournament, the Australian Open, resulting in an even .500 record. Pospisil certainly has the ability on this surface, but I’m endorsing the upset this time and picking Kukushkin to reach round 2.
Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Kyrgios, three years the junior of Kudla, should be able to beat the American wild card, but Denis has shown some good form at points this season, and Kyrgios is playing his first tournament since the Australian Open, having taken time off to recover from a back injury. Kyrgios is without a doubt the more talented player, but he will need to deal with the California weather conditions, and may have some rust in his game, so Kudla could give himself belief if he could strike while the iron is hot and get off to a confident start. All eyes will be on Kyrgios this year as he begins to play the Masters level full-time, and the journey this time around will begin with a young American on home soil, drawing even more attention the match. As we all know, Kyrgios feasts off the attention.
Querrey is 3-0, including 1-0 on outdoor hard against Stakhovsky, and that’s probably why he’s the bookies favorite for this one, but he’s been in terrible form but all but one tournament this season, with round 1 exits in every tournament but Memphis. Stako meanwhile had a top class month of February, reaching two 500 level quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Dubai, and a semifinal in Marseille sandwiched in between. The Californian Sam Q should be better adapted to the conditions, but I have Stakhovsky winning this one, perhaps quite comfortably. His game has been greatly improved this year overall based upon the two month sample size.
The American wild card Krajicek, who has had a career year in 2015, has another great shot at notching an upset over an ATP regular. Istomin happens to be in poor form, with just a 3-7 ATP record on the season. Krajicek by contrast qualified and reached the quarterfinals in Memphis, pushing Kei Nishikori to 3 sets, and also qualified in Acapulco. With the home crowd sure to be behind him, the former Texas A&M standout will still need to play his best to have a chance, but momentum, and venue favor him, and thus I have Krajicek, an unheralded American, into round 2 over Istomin.
Jack Sock vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A battle of baselining ball strikers, the 22 year old American Sock is returning from hip surgery, and this is his first tournament of 2015. The 31 year old Lu has had a decent season with two ATP hard court quarterfinals (Chennai and Delray) on his resume. Lu is never going to wow or shock, his game simply is what it is, good but not great, and relatively weaponless but reliable. Sock by contrast has a gifted forehand but has had to work develop the other parts of his game to compliment that natural gift. He’s matured at the ATP level over time, when previously opponents were able to exploit his weaker backhand and poor fitness, and before the hip surgery was on an upward trend overall. This is really just a form test for Sock, and Lu, given how reliably bland he is, is actually not the best matchup for a player coming back from injury, because he is likely to be steadier than his opponent who will be feeling his way back into ATP level matches. Lu should advance, likely in 3 sets.
Three time, and defending Indian Wells champ Novak Djokovic will open with the winner of Jiri Vesely vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Vesely has been in awful form since winning his maiden ATP title, and a Baghdatis victory should extend his losing streak to six straight matches, as Vesely also lost in Davis Cup over the weekend. The Cypriot veteran has been in good form overall this year with no opening round exits in any tournament, and he’s also 2-0 in the h2h record. Djokovic is 4-0 on hard courts against Baghdatis (7-0 overall with the last meeting taking place in 2012), and shouldn’t have any issue reaching the third round, where his Davis Cup teammate Viktor Troicki is likely to be his next opponent. Troicki, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup most recently, and has an ATP title along with two quarterfinals on his resume should defeat dirtballer Albert Ramos, and 25 seed Julien Benneteau who has been in poor form in singles this year. Benny has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts against Troicki but he has only won 1 match this season. Djokovic has dominated Troicki in the h2h, posting a 10-0 hard court record against the Serb who is two years his senior. I don’t expect Djokovic to drop a set before the round of 16.
16 seed Kevin Anderson likewise shouldn’t have too much competition going into the round of 16, Neither Federico Delbonis or Dusan Lajovic, his possible round 2 opponents are good hard court players. Anderson also had a good stroke of luck with the fact that the other seed in his section is 18 seed John Isner, the top American player. Isner, a former finalist at IW, has been in awful form this season, and suffered further blows to his confidence, and emotional well-being with two brutal Davis Cup losses in Glasgow that cost Team USA the tie. Isner is just 3-5 at the ATP level this year with egregious losses to James Ward most recently, and also Marinko Matosevic on home soil in Delray Beach, on outdoor hard.
I could see Isner losing to a qualifier (American Dennis Novikov or veteran Jurgen Melzer) in round 2, but if he does get through that match (he’s 1-2 on hard courts against likely round 2 opponent Melzer), a favorable h2h of 6-3 on hard courts against Anderson should at least give him hope, especially since he’s won the last four meetings between the pair. No matter, look for Anderson, who has an ATP final, and two ATP semifinals, all on hard courts, the most recent one coming in Acapulco, on his resume in 2015, to improve that h2h by 1 win, and setup a meeting with Djokovic.
David Ferrer has a flawless three ATP titles this season (Doha, Rio, Acapulco), and he has only lost one match on the season (to Kei Nishikori in Melbourne). He’s likely to get a rematch from Acapulco against 32 seed Bernard Tomic in round 3. Ferrer will need to defeat either Joao Sousa or Ivan Dodig in round 2 (Sousa in my bracket), while Tomic will need to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer or qualifier Borna Coric, most likely the qualifier Coric to set that up. Coric, who was coming off of Davis Cup duty, had to save match points to qualify for IW, and he was a semifinalist at the 500 level in Dubai. His match will Tomic will get a lot of attention, and it should be quality, but I feel Tomic is the more mature young gun, who is also in better form, and that along with being fresher should be enough to put the young Aussie over the young Croat. Tomic’s junkballing should also frustrate Coric.
As mentioned, Ferrer just beat Tomic in 3 sets in Acapulco, and prior to that Ferrer had won both their hard court meetings in 2 sets. The veteran Spaniard has been at his best thus far in 2015, and is a strong favorite to reach the last 16.
Marin Cilic, will begin his 2015 campaign in Indian Wells, coming off of a shoulder injury, and without any tournament play in 2015. The Croat, who had a major breakthrough in 2014, claiming the US Open title, his maiden slam, will get his first match against either Juan Monaco or Teymuraz Gabashvili. Gabashvili is on a four match losing streak, while Monaco has been in good form, all be it on South American clay. Cilic has a lone hard court h2h win 7 years ago against Monaco, and though rust is likely, and his form may be shaky, on a hard court surface, he should still be good enough to get past a declined Monaco. A more stern test is certain in the third round, as the Kokkinakis/Struff winner could be his opponent, or the unpredictable Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. First off, if Kokkinakis can get past Struff, and upset GGL, I feel his form will be good enough to also notch a top 20 win and upset Cilic, given the Croat number one is almost certain to be rusty. However, I also see GGL reaching the fourth round if he can beat Kokkinakis/Struff. GGL has beaten Cilic at Indian Wells before, and he has an ATP title among other good results this year. This is a hard to predict section, and in my own bracket I’m going with Garcia-Lopez over both Kokkinakis and CIlic to setup a round of 16 match with Ferrer, though either Cilic or Kokkinakis reaching the round of 16 would not shock me. I feel Kokkinakis may be emotionally spent from his Davis Cup triumph from 2 sets down, which was the key result that led to an Australian victory in the tie.
A one time finalist at Indian Wells, Andy Murray comes off doing a tremendous job in Davis Cup duty for team GB on indoor hard, having returned to the top 5 in the ATP rankings as well. Murray will have a difficult opening match against the Kukushkin/Pospisil winner, and should he show any signs of vulnerability, I could see Pospisil, or more likely Kukushkin pouncing and making it a match. Kukushkin has pushed Murray to three sets before, and as mentioned above, he was in peak form for Davis Cup while Murray has two h2h wins over Pospisil over the last two seasons, both close straight set matches. I’m not predicting an upset myself, but Murray’s opening match will be good viewing at minimum. Murray has had two early awful losses this year to Borna Coric in Dubai and Gilles Simon in Rotterdam, but his Davis Cup form was much better than those matches, and they are most likely aberrations rather than a worrying sign of things to come. Look for Murray to get past his third rounder as well, the seeded opponent would be Philipp Kohlschreiber, but Kohli is in poor form and really has been all year (3-6 on the season), most recently coming off Davis Cup play. American wild card Tim Smyczek has a nice chance at the third round, if he can get past ball striking grinder Benjamin Becker, and then upset Kohlschreiber. I have Becker in the third round in my own bracket, with wins over Smyczek and Kohlschreiber, his Davis Cup teammate. Becker most recently pushed Bernard Tomic to 3 sets in Acapulco. Murray should be untroubled by Becker or any other player though and reach the round of 16 this week.
14 seed Ernests Gulbis is in atrocious form. He hasn’t won a match in 2015, and he may be better off playing challengers to build his confidence at this point, rather than Masters events. I’m just about certain Gulbis will lose to either qualifier Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a veteran dirtballer, or Sam Groth in round 2. The big serving Groth has been steadily improving his game up to an ATP caliber level of play, and his rhythm on serve should frustrate a struggling Gulbis should they meet. With the qualifers placed, I’d place Groth into third round, with a shot at the round of 16, given that the other seed here is the 19 seed Fabio Fognini. Fogna has been in horrendous form on hard courts for months, and he most recently cost Italy their Davis Cup tie against Kazakhstan with a massive choke against challenger level player Alex Nedovyesov. I see Fognini struggling in a loss to either qualifier Mischa Zverev (who won the pre-qualifying tournament, then qualified) or Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino destroyed Fognini at the US Open last fall, and he posted an ATP semi in Delray, along with a final in Auckland as he’s an extremely streaky player to who can post big results and this lose consecutive matches early on in tournaments. Mannarino and Groth, which could be a very strange match for the third round of Masters event, have met twice prior, and split meetings on hard courts. Remarkably, I’d put Mannarino into the fourth round with a small edge in another difficult to predict section.
5 seed Kei Nishikori, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup play after reaching the final in Acapulco and winning Memphis in recent weeks, will open with the winner of Mardy Fish/Ryan Harrison. Nishikori beat Milos Raonic in Davis Cup, and appears to be streaking right now, having worked his way into the top 5, very much deserving that status. Fish/Harrison is one of the most over-hyped round 1 matches I’ve seen in quite some time, as it’s been given stadium 1 billing for Thursday. Fish hasn’t played a competitive tournament singles match since 2013, between psychological and health problems with his heart. Harrison meanwhile had one of the best results of his career with a run to the semifinals in Acapulco that included a win over top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov. I see no reason why Harrison wouldn’t routine Fish in a match that may end in a retirement, but Nishikori should beat him in round 2 and reach the third round, as he did in Memphis in 3 sets. As for his third round opponent, 28 seed Fernando Verdasco will face Dominic Thiem or qualifier James Duckworth in round 2. Duckworth is in great form, as he qualified after previously reaching a hard court challenger final in India. Still, Thiem is the superior talent and is likely to stave off the possible upset to setup a meeting with Verdasco. Verdasco and Thiem have never met, but Verdasco is perhaps slightly better at the moment, though his form has been very much average. Verdasco beat Nishikori in straights at the 2011 Aussie Open, but the tables have entirely turned since that match, and Nishikori is a much more complete player now, barring the conditions getting to him, I fully expect to see Kei into the round of 16.
12 seed Feliciano Lopez will open with Marinko Matosevic, whose form appears to be getting a bit better in recent weeks, or lucky loser Edouard Roger-Vasselin. I don’t expect Feli to have too much trouble reaching the round of 16 this week, as his third round opponent is most likely to be qualifier Thiemo De Bakker or Jarkko Nieminen in a weak section. Nieminen is decent, even at his age, on hard courts, while De Bakker, who is talented but a noted underachiever, appears to be near the cusp of a breakthrough back on the ATP stage, as he’s been doing well in ATP qualifying. Still, Lopez is better than every player in his section in terms of talent and form, and I have Lopez over De Bakker for a spot in the round of 16. The winner of Nieminen/De Bakker faces 20 seed Pablo Cuevas, who much prefers clay and comes off Davis Cup duty, in round 2. Interestingly for Lopez, he’s 0-1 against De Bakker on hard courts, and 1-3 against Nieminen likewise, he’s also had shock losses to Victor Estrella, Aljaz Bedene and Marsel Ilhan in 2015, all lower ranked journeymen (though he was sick against Ilhan in Dubai).
The three time former IW champion, Rafael Nadal, who seems to like the slow, high bouncing hard courts the venue offers up, will open up another hard court campaign against Igor Sijsling or qualifier Filip Krajinovic. Krajinovic surprisingly qualified on a hard court and has won three straight matches dating back to Davis Cup for Serbia, while Sijsling has lost four straight. I expect Nadal, who won a title on clay a couple of weeks ago in Buenos Aires, to cruise through to the third round no matter whom he faces in round 2. Rafa could get a bit of a contest from fellow lefty Donald Young at that stage. Young, who played poorly in Davis Cup, had a career month in February with an ATP final and an ATP semifinal in Delray and Memphis. He should be able to score wins over dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then a pedestrian Jeremy Chardy, who has been unfortunate to have some tough draws this season though his record is floating around .500 on the year. Nadal beat the American Young 6-1 6-3 at IW in 2008, though his hard court form has been shaky since this time last year (he hasn’t even reached a hard court semifinal since Miami 2014), he still should play well enough to get into the round of 16. Though Nadal isn’t really in the conversation for the champion of a hard court masters event right now, he’s still better than all but top 10 players on the surface as a general rule.
The section above Nadal featuring a pair of French seeds, Davis Cup hero Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet is intriguing. Simon should beat Tatsuma Ito or Malek Jaziri with ease (Ito should be favored over Jaziri given Jaziri has lost five straight matches while Ito has a challenger final and a challenger semi since the AO, and comes off of Davis Cup duty). While Gasquet is the favorite against one of two admirable veterans, qualifier Michael Berrer, or Victor Estrella. Berrer is retiring after this season, though the serve and volleying German has played well (beat Nadal in Doha, qualified for both Zagreb and IW), and Estrella comes off Davis Cup duty, and has won both his maiden ATP title (on clay), and a challenger title (on hard courts) this season. I have Estrella over Berrer, and then Gasquet over Estrella, though Estrella shocked Gasquet in Bogota on outdoor hard courts last season. Gasquet has two ATP quarterfinals and an ATP title this year, while Simon has a title and a semi. Gasquet leads the h2h with Simon on hard courts 4-1, and is more skilled and aesthetically pleasing than the defensively strong counterpuncher Simon. I expect a three setter, and while I picked Gasquet myself, a Simon win would not surprise me either.
6 seed Milos Raonic will get a chance at revenge if he faces Simone Bolelli in round 2, Bolelli beat him in Marseille this year (though Raonic won their meeting a week prior in Rotterdam). Bolelli has played well for points this year, but he played erratically, spraying errors in the Davis Cup for Italy over the weekend, and thus I don’t give him much of a chance against Raonic, though he should still beat Thomaz Bellucci, who struggled as well in Davis Cup for Brazil). The difference is Bellucci was playing on clay in his tie, and still played poorly, while Bolelli is superior on hard courts. Look for Raonic, who went for 1-1 in Davis Cup singles play for Canada over the weekend, to take out Santiago Giraldo or Alex Dolgopolov for a spot in the round of 16. Giraldo comes off Davis Cup duty, and hasn’t done much spectacular this year, while Dolgopolov is struggling compared to the form he was in this time last year. Dolgo will face qualifier Frank Dancevic before the 29 seed Giraldo who he has beaten twice on grass. Though Dolgo is unlikely to trouble Raonic, he has beaten Giraldo twice on grass and reached consecutive ATP quarterfinals in Delray Beach and Acapulco. Dolgo beat Raonic in the IW quarterfinals last year in their only meeting, but as mentioned, that was a vastly different Dolgo than his current self, and Raonic has proven himself to be reliable in the Masters series events against all but the top 10.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov, who took part in an exo at Madison Square Garden in New York on Wednesday night, is going to have some trouble in his opening match, as he will face the Kyrgios/Kudla winner. Kyrgios, assuming his form is ok (as we will find out from his match against Kudla) has to be the favorite given Dimitrov has been poor in ATP matches this year, including recent losses to Gilles Muller in Rotterdam and Ryan Harrison in Acapulco. Dimitrov has been lacking killer instinct, and passion with his tennis this year, two things that Kyrgios has in excess, meaning the Bulgarian’s chances are slim in my mind against the teenage Aussie. Look for Kyrgios to also blow past his third round opponent, as Dustin Brown and Andrey Golubev are both journeymen, with Golubev coming off of DC duty, and 17 seed Tommy Robredo has very much struggled this season. Robredo beat Kyrgios at the 2014 US Open but he’s just 3-5 on the season, and age may well be catching up to him.
Federer’s section:
Roger Federer, a four time Indian Wells champion, the defending finalist, and most recently, the champion in Dubai, will open his 2015 IW campaign against Jerzy Janowicz or Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, as he stares down a challenging draw if he is to reach at least the semifinals. Janowicz , who has an ATP final this year and played excellent in Davis Cup duty for Poland over the weekend, played him well on clay in Rome in 2013, and appears to be in improved form compared to his play in 2014. Still, one has to expect Federer to find a way past the big serving Polish number one, given how well the Swiss is playing himself. After that, Andreas Seppi, who upset him at the Australian Open, is his likely round 3 opponent. Seppi will face a veteran in round 2, as Mikhail Youzhny and qualifier Victor Hanescu will battle for the right to face the 30 seed. Youzhny has a slight 2-1 hard court h2h edge over the Romanian, though both players who are 30+, are greatly declined from their heyday in the 2000s. Hanescu has been reduced to playing ATP qualies, while Youzhny has just two wins this year. Surprisingly, Youzhny is 4-0 against Seppi on hard courts, including a win last year in Cincy, and the Italian did not play well in Davis Cup, but still he’s had a solid year already in 2015, and with a second week showing in Australia and an ATP final on his resume this year, he has to be trusted to right the ship. Still, look for Federer to get his revenge, perhaps comfortably, and dispatch Seppi for a spot in the round of 16.
15 seed Roberto Bautista Agut faces a draw that will have him face the Istomin/Krajicek winner in round 1, and then one of Sock/Lu or Gilles Muller (who replaced Leo Mayer in the draw as a seed) in round 3. I have RBA over Krajicek rather comfortably, and then over Muller as well, as Muller, who has played well in 2015, should be favored over Lu or Sock, as his serve should disrupt their rhythm and overwhelm them. Muller is 3-3 in his career on hard court against Lu, and he won their most recent meeting last year. Muller beat RBA at the AO this year, and he has won both their hard court meetings, but it’s a competitive matchup and RBA has two ATP semifinals on his record this year. I feel these courts suit his game well.
7 seed Stan Wawrinka will open with a slumping Robin Haase or qualifier Alex Bolt, who is making his ATP main draw debut against the Dutchman. I have Bolt over Haase given that Haase is 0-7 in 2015, while Bolt has an ATP challenger final and semifinal on his resume already and scored to quality wins in qualifying. Wawrinka has a very easy draw, as his round 3 opponent will be most likely the talented but erratic ballbasher Martin Klizan. Klizan opens with dirtballer Pablo Andujar, and then will face 27 seed Lukas Rosol, who is in the midst of a six match losing streak. Klizan in the third round is mostly just the luck of the draw, rather than being particularly deserved, and I don’t see Wawrinka dropping a set before the round of 16.
9 seed Tomas Berdych has a much more challenging path to the fourth round, he will face the Querrey/Stakhovsky winner round 2, and though he’s 4-0 on hard courts against Stako, including a win this year in Dubai in 3 sets, playing an in-form opponent is still never easy. Berdych has made the semifinals or better at every single tournament he’s played a match in this season, but has no titles from that, which is why he’s been posting quality results under the radar. Berdych against Steve Johnson or 21 seed Ivo Karlovic in round 3 promises to be interesting. Karlovic has an ATP title (Delray), quarterfinal and semifinal on his record this season, and is playing well. Johnson, who played his college tennis at USC and is very much a southern California boy, has been much improved under the radar, already posting three ATP quarterfinals this year, the most recent of which came in Delray Beach, where his run was ended by Karlovic. Johnson, like Berdych, has been posting his quality results under the radar, but at Indian Wells his matches are sure to get attention, including his opening contest with veteran Marcel Granollers who he beat in 3 sets in Tokyo on hard courts last year. Johnson has beaten Karlovic twice before, even with that Delray loss, and he should be motivated to do perform at his best in California, with that in mind I have him reaching the third round to face Berdych who he has never played before. He’ll have an upset chance, but Berdych has been a tough opponent to face this year, and thus the battle tested Czech should reach the round of 16.
Dark Horses: Thanasi Kokkinakis, Mikhail Kukushkin, Nick Kyrgios, Steve Johnson
Teens Kokkinakis and Kyrgios, could, or should in the case of Kyrgios, reach the round of 16. As mentioned, Kokkinakis will need to beat Struff and Garcia-Lopez, then likely Cilic to setup a meeting with Ferrer, who is likely to be too much for him at this stage in his career. Kyrgios, the other half of “special-K’ from Down Under, has a path of Kudla, Dimitrov, and then Robredo/Golubev/Brown, to setup a meeting with Raonic, who I also think will be too much (Raonic beat him at both Wimbledon and the French last year), but who knows, Kyrgios is known to rise the occasion.
Kukushkin would need to shock Murray, after scoring perhaps a minor upset over Pospisil, but should be pull off that double, he could go as far as the quarterfinals as the rest of the section is very weak (Smyczek/Kohlschreiber/Becker round 3, Mannarino/Groth/Fognini/Gulbis round of 16). Johnson has the toughest road to the round of 16, as he would need to beat big servers Karlovic and Berdych to earn the right to face a very tough opponent in Wawrinka.
Djokovic isn’t his best against big servers but he’s 2-1 against Anderson and still should advance in straights, Ferrer is in great form, and has dominated GGL in the h2h record, Murray has a weak section and shouldn’t drop a set to his round of 16 opponent, Nishikori is 2-1 on hard courts against Lopez and in better form, Raonic as mentioned has the edge on Kyrgios, Nadal dominates Gasquet in the h2h as the Frenchman has a mental block against him, Wawrinka has won the last five meetings against Berdych on a hard court, including a win in the Rotterdam final this year, and thus should win again if they meet. Last but not least, Federer beat RBA twice last year on a hard court.
Quarters: Djokovic d Ferrer
Nishikori d. Murray
Raonic d. Nadal
Federer d. Wawrinka
No matter how well Ferrer is playing, Djokovic is a bit of an unstoppable force, and he has won their last six hard court meetings since 2012, it could well be a three setter, and I wouldn’t count Ferrer out but Novak has to be the intelligent pick. Murray was 3-0 all on hard courts, before losing to Nishikori at the World Tour Finals last year, but I see that matchup as a 50/50 type of decision, and Nishikori should be slightly fresher going into it, with that in mind I have Kei slipping through, perhaps in 3.
Nadal is 4-0 on hard courts against Raonic, but Raonic is one of those top tier hard court players that should very much give this current version of Nadal trouble, with that in mind, I have him earning his first h2h win in the matchup to reach the semifinals. Wawrinka has never beaten his celebrated countryman in 11 hard court meetings, though their matches have become closer and more competitive over time, Federer should be the favorite and I see no weaknesses in his game that suggest to me he’ll lose before the final.
Semis: Djokovic d. Nishikori
Federer d. Raonic
Nishikori of course shocked Novak at the US Open, but Djokovic won both their hard court meetings after that, and given a neutral venue such as Indian Wells, Djokovic has to be something like a 60/40 favorite. Nishikori has a strong enough game to generate chances, and pounce if Novak struggles, but the match is still on Novak’s racquet as to how it will go. Given I’m buying into the Serbian’s form, I have him reaching the final this week.
Federer is 5-1, including a win in the Brisbane outdoor hard court final this year, against Raonic, and he’s striking the ball and moving well, so I have a feeling no matter how well Raonic can play on his serve, Federer will return too well and have too much to go down in defeat before the final.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer upset Djokovic in Dubai, a fast low bouncing surface compared to IW, but Djokovic has won both their IW meetings, including a thrilling final last year, in three sets. The surface should favor his game against the more aggressive Federer, who likes the courts quick, even though it’s a razor call when these two meet. If you watched that Dubai encounter, it’s not that Federer was flawless, as Djokovic generated chances and could have won that match, but he simply didn’t play well enough in key moments to do so, and that was the difference. These two know each other well and it’s never a surprise when they battle in what are always world class matchups, it’s simply a matter of execution on a certain day, rather than skill or style, as to who the winner will be.
2015 WTA Indian Wells (@BNPParibasOpen) Preview and Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
After an eventful first two months of the 2015 season, we reach the almost month long American hard court series, with back to back Premier tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami.
The first stop will be in the beautiful state of California for the BNP Paribas Open. The Indian Wells Tennis Garden will play host to the world’s best players from both the men’s and women’s tour with the main court holding over 16,000 spectators.
The BNP Paribas Open was originally a men’s only event in 1976. Thirteen years later the Garden would also host the women, albeit a week after the men’s tournament. In 1996, the decision was made to have the men’s and women’s tournaments run simultaneously, and it has since become one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world.
Among Indian Wells’ many accolades are being named the WTA’s Premier Tournament Of The Year five times – in 1997, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2013 – and the Premier Mandatory Tournament Of The Year in 2014; becoming the first event in the world to offer the Hawk-Eye challenge system on every match court in 2011; and becoming the first ATP/WTA combined tournament to distribute $1 million in prize money to each of its singles champions in 2012.
Previous champions include the likes of Steffi Graf, Martina Hingis, Martina Navratilova, Maria Sharapova and Monica Seles. Flavia Pennetta is the defending champion, as she overcame Agnieszka Radwanska in last year’s final.
Despite all the history, and the prestige of the event, the big story is the return of Serena Williams to Indian Wells.
The world number one hasn’t played in the tournament for 14 years, after the crowd heckled her and her sister Venus after alleged match fixing. It was also alleged that the reaction was also racially motivated. This led to the Williams sisters boycotting the event for 14 years; until now. Serena announced earlier this year that she will be returning to Indian Wells in an exclusive with TIME Magazine where she discussed both the happy and sad experiences from the event.
“It has been difficult for me to forget spending hours crying in the Indian Wells locker room after winning in 2001, driving back to Los Angeles feeling as if I had lost the biggest game ever – not a mere tennis game but a bigger fight for equality,” Williams wrote in her exclusive piece for TIME.
“I’m fortunate to be at a point in my career where I have nothing to prove. I’m still as driven as ever, but the ride is a little easier. I play for the love of the game. And it is with that love in mind, and a new understanding of the true meaning of forgiveness, that I will proudly return to Indian Wells in 2015.”
Venus however, will not return to the BNP Paribas Open this year.
For more information on the Williams sisters’ boycott of Indian wells and Serena’s return, please read my article posted yesterday.
BNP Paribas Open
Tier: Premier Mandatory
Location: Indian Wells, USA
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $ 5,381,235
Date: March 11th- March 22nd
Top eight seeded players (Ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Maria Sharapova (2)
3. Simona Halep (3)
4. Caroline Wozniacki (5)
5. Ana Ivanovic (6)
6. Eugenie Bouchard (7)
7. Agnieszka Radwanska (8)
8. Ekaterina Makarova (9)
The notable exception is Petra Kvitova who withdrew from the tournament due to fatigue. Otherwise the top players are all in action, which should lead to an exciting tournament.
Note: There are 32 seeded players in the draw, all of which receive a first round BYE
Julia Goerges vs Heather Watson:
Britain’s Heather Watson made a fantastic start to 2015 by winning the Hobart International tournament just before the Australian Open. However, the 22 year old hasn’t been able to capitalise on that momentum, only winning one match since. Goerges on the other hand has had a good start to the year, winning more often than not. That includes a round four appearance at the Australian Open where she lost to Ekaterina Makarova. These two previously met on the clay courts of Roland Garros three years ago, and it was The German who came out on top in straight sets. Watson’s form since Hobart hasn’t convinced me, but this is tennis and anything can happen. Expect the Brit to try counter Goerges’ power and remain consistent. The German will look to use her power to overwhelm Watson, forcing short balls and errors. It’s hard not to back Goerges given their respective forms, but if The 26 year old is spraying errors, except Watson’s consistency to shine through.
Anna Schmiedlova vs Lauren Davis
Two youngsters ranked within two places of each other, both looking to play their way into form, and one of them is American? Sounds like an enticing Indian wells opener to me. Schmiedlova vs Davis might be a match-up you see more of in the future, but this is their first ever meeting, meaning we have little to go by when it comes to deciding the winner. Schmiedlova recently made the final of Rio, but lost to Sara Errani in straight sets. The 20 year old hasn’t won a match since the clay court event in Brazil, losing both her opening round matches in Mexico. Davis hasn’t won since the Australian Open, albeit she has only played two matches since the first Grand Slam of the year. No matter which way it ends up going, this match should be close and will likely go the distance. The reward will be a round two clash with Jelena Jankovic.
(WC) Taylor Townsend vs (WC) Bethanie Mattek-Sands
One for you American fans out there. Taylor Townsend is younger than yours truly, and is in the top 100, making her one of the brightest prospects on tour. Mattek Sands is 11 years older and vastly more experienced, and she’s much better than her 187 ranking suggests. The 29 year old suffered an injury last year, which saw her ranking plummet from top 50 to outside the top 100. Townsend is still very young and learning her way around the tour, therefore the 18 year old isn’t yet the complete product. I expect Mattek-Sands’ experience to shine through as I don’t believe Townsend is ready to handle the pressure of the big crowd at Indian Wells yet.
Serena’s Quarter
The world number one’s triumphant return to Indian Wells will be met by the crafty Monica Niculescu or Aleksandra Krunic. The focus here won’t be on the tennis, but on how the crowd will react to Serena Williams after her 14 year boycott of the event. If the crowd is gracious, and Serena displays her usual form, there should be little to no trouble in her opening matches. Youngster, Zarina Diyas will await in round three, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Williams, who should over-power the Kazakh with ease.
Serena’s draw gets interesting in round four, where Angelique Kerber or Svetlana Kuznetsova should be awaiting her. Both players are in need of wins after failing to really set the world alight in 2015. At this point they should both have a win under their belt to give them somewhat of a confidence boost heading into their third round clash. Interestingly, the head to head is tied at 3-3, but Kerber has a win this year on the hard courts of Dubai. The German overcame Kuznetsova in straight sets on that occasion, and I can see the same happening here.
Kerber has beaten Serena on American soil before three years ago in Cincinnati, but apart from that straight sets win, she has failed to take a set off the world number one. Serena’s record here speaks for itself, so I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t make it to the quarter finals.
Serena’s return might dominate the headlines, but on the court, the fight for the right to face the world number one might just be the show-stealer. This section features two in-form players, who right now are at their career high ranking. Lucie Safarova is just shy of the top 10 following her triumph in Doha. The Czech is dangerous and in excellent form. I wouldn’t want to draw her at Indian Wells.
Timea Bacsinszky is coming off a double title salvo in Mexico, making her perhaps the most in-form player heading into the tournament. The Swiss is at a career high ranking of 26, and is 11th in the race, such is her good form this year. Bacsinszky has in an interesting round three prospect against the eighth seeded Russian Ekaterina Makarova. Bacsinszky leads the head to head 2-1, including a straight sets win in Wuhan last year. However, Makarova brings her best on the big occasion, and that makes her extremely dangerous. The Swiss’ good form will make a lot of people lean towards her, and I understand why, but Makarova is still overall the better player and I favour her in this match-up despite the stats saying otherwise.
The Makarova vs Safarova match will decide who faces Serena in the quarter finals. The battle of the lefties should be close, with both Safarova and Makarova currently in the form of their careers. The Czech should be full of confidence after her exploits in Doha, where she beat Makarova in the round of 16 in three sets. With the head to head and form book in the favour of the world number 11, I will back Lucie to be Serena’s opponent in the quarter finals.
The world number three doesn’t have it easy in Indian Wells, with some dangerous seeded players being drawn into her section. Halep was forced to withdraw from Doha with a rib injury, so her fitness might be in question. There isn’t any news heading into the tournament about tis injury, so I presume she’ll be healed up enough to make a good go of this.
The Romanian’s first test will come in the form of Vavara Lepchenko in the third round. The American has suffered from an illness this season, but she’s very dangerous with her powerful ground strokes being her main weapon. The home crowd could inspire Lepchenko, but the chances are Halep will be too consistent for the American.
The third round clash between Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza is mouth-watering, with the winner facing Halep for a quarter final place. Both Plsikova and Muguruza have been tipped to be the future of the WTA, making this a match-up we could be seeing a whole lot more of in the future. The Czech has been in awesome form this year, climbing towards the top 10 in the rankings with some big wins along the way. Muguruza has played well too, earning some big wins of her own. These two have met twice before, and on both occasions they have been tight three setters. Expect more of the same here, with some huge hitting from both sides of the court. I have a feeling Muguruza will be the victor this time around. She was close in Dubai without playing well and looking tired, so I believe The Spaniard will edge out the Czech on this occasion.
With The Spaniard likely going long with Plsikova, look for Halep to take advantage of a tired Muguruza. The world number three has been prone to being blown off the court by the likes of Garbine, but on this occasion she’ll weather the storm. Muguruza will come out flying, but eventually will slow down as fatigued starts to kick in allowing Halep to complete a three set win.
Seventh seed Agnieszka Radwanska isn’t in the best of form at the moment and could find herself facing an early exit. Camila Giorgi is projected to meet in round three, and with the Italian’s power, The Pole could find herself being blown away. The Italian however is vastly inconsistent, especially with the serve, and could easily fall in the second round to Goerges or Watson. Radwanska might not be in the best form, but she was a finalist here last year, so she has proven she can play well here. I will predict the world number eight to make round four.
The likely opponent will be the winner of the interesting Carla Suarez Navarro vs Barbora Zahalova Strycova round three clash. These two players aren’t known for their power, but they show a lot of variety and bring experience to the table. The Spaniard leads the head to head 6-1, but they have never met on a hard court. Despite the lack of hard court meetings it’s difficult not to back Suarez Navarro in this match, with the 12th seed being overall the better player, in better form and leading the head to head.
Suarez Navarro will therefore face Radwanska in round four with a quarter final place at stake. The seventh seed leads the head to head 2-0, but these two haven’t faced each other since the 2012 US Open. In the two and a half years that have passed, Radwanska has somewhat regressed, whilst Suarez Navarro has improved to become a solid top 20 player. The Spaniard heads into the tournament in better form, and therefore I see her overcoming Radwanska in three sets.
The fourth seeded Caroline Wozniacki will be coming into Indian Wells in good spirits after claiming the Kuala Lumpur title last week; her first of 2015. Wozniacki should make round four, but there are some tricky matches along the way. Kaia Kanepi may await in the second round, and the Estonian is always dangerous. Rising star Belinda Bencic is projected to meet the former world number one in the third round, but the teen isn’t in the best of form this year possessing a 2-5 singles record. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Swiss fall in the second round to Jovanovski or Bertens, albeit these two aren’t in the best of form either. Either way, Wozniacki should defeat either of those three players without too much trouble.
Come the fourth round, her possible opponents include Madison Keys, Jelena Jankovic or 2007 winner Daniela Hantuchova. Keys will be the favourite given her exploits in Melbourne, but the big hitting American may struggle under the pressure of the home crowd. Madison is still young, and with the weight of expectation on her shoulders it will be interesting to see how she copes. The first test will likely be in the form of Hantuchova, who since her 2007 triumph is 1-7 at this event. Hantuchova got some decent for under her belt by winning the Patteya open but has since struggled. Jelena Jankovic is a shell of her former self, and has a tough round two against the winner of Davis vs Schmiedlova. Jankovic bowing out early wouldn’t be much of a shock, but the winner of the second round match-up will likely lose to Keys or Hantuchova in round three.
Keys vs Wozniacki should be the fourth round match, setting up an interesting clash of styles. Keys is pure power, swinging hard and hitting powerful strokes off both wings. Wozniacki is one of the best movers and tour, and her retrieving could frustrate the American. The 16th seed has the power to blow the world number five off the court, but on this occasion on a fairly slow court, I expect Wozniacki to pull through. The Dane has a great record here, being a former champion and finalist.
Could we be in for an all blonde showdown in the quarter finals? Sixth seed Eugenie Bouchard will certainly hope so. The Canadian’s first test will come in round three against big serving American Coco Vandeweghe. Bouchard’s form is unknown as she’s only played one match since the Australian Open, losing to Mona Barthel in Antwerp. Given that she’s fully fit, Bouchard’s early ball striking could get Vandeweghe on the move, making the American less effective. If the 30th seed can get the upper-hand in the rallies with her forehand, then Bouchard could be in trouble. It’s still difficult not to back the sixth seed on this occasion, but this one could be tricky.
Bouchard’s fourth round opponent will likely come down to the winner of Andrea Petkovic vs Alize Cornet. Petkovic might have a difficult time getting past Annika Beck in the second round, but realistically it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The German is in better form than Cornet, but the Frenchwoman leads to head to head 3-1, including a victory in Miami last year. Petkovic is now a top 10 player, and therefore should be more confident this time around, and that will be enough to see her past the 20th seed.
Bouchard’s biggest problem is handling the big hitters, and Petkovic doesn’t really fall into the category. However, you have to consider that Bouchard’s fitness and form is unknown. The world number seven has only played one match since Melbourne. Petkovic hasn’t set the world alight since Antwerp, but she’s hardly looked awful. Knowing where the German’s fitness and form is at, I feel she’s the safer bet to make the quarter finals.
Sharapova’s Quarter
With Azarenka’s injury woes causing the former world number one to fall down the rankings, she was always going to create a tough draw for a top player. This time it’s Maria Sharapova. The pair are scheduled to meet in the third round with Azarenka only just claiming a seeding position due to Kvitova’s withdrawal. Providing nothing gets in their way, this will undoubtedly be the match of the early rounds. Azarenka boasts a 6-1 record on hard courts against the world number two, but their last meeting on this surfaced was over two years ago. Azarenka is slowly building her ranking back up, but she isn’t at the level she displayed in 2012 and 2013 just yet. Maria Sharapova pulled out of Acapulco with illness 2 weeks ago, but that shouldn’t be problem now surely? Expect a tight, (and loud match) with both players wrestling momentum from each other during the match. It will likely come down to mental strength, which is where Sharapova thrives. How many times have we seen the Russian pull through tight matches where she hasn’t played too well? You can’t count them on your fingers that’s for certain. I feel this will be another one of those matches where Sharapova sneaks the win despite being outplayed throughout the majority of the match.
She will then go on to likely face the defending champion Flavia Pennetta. Her victory here last year proved that she likes these courts, and is capable of showing a high level here. Unfortunately for the Italian she won’t reach a high enough level to topple the second seed, and she’ll likely go down in straight sets.
Fifth seed Ana Ivanovic will look to use this tournament to rebuild some confidence after a disappointing defeat to Caroline Garcia last week. These two are on the collision course this week too, with the Serb looking to extract her revenge. Ivanovic will almost certainly make the third round, but Garcia’s participation at this stage isn’t set in stone. Former Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva is the Frenchwoman’s likely second round opponent. The Russian is continuing her comeback from injury, and despite not being at her 2010 level, she’s still a dangerous unseeded player to draw. Garcia reached back to back finals in Mexico, but lost twice to the surging Timea Bacsinszky. It will be interesting to see how the Frenchwoman responds after being only a win away from a title two weeks in a row. These losses can dent your confidence or make you hungry to go that one further. It’s interesting to see which path Garcia will end up going down.
Sara Errani is the projected fourth round opponent of Ivanovic/Garcia/Zvonareva, but the Italian consistency can often leave her prone to being overpowered. Speaking of power, Sabine Lisicki has it in abundance, but the German struggles for consistency outside of Wimbledon, making her an upset target for unseeded players. Jarmila Gajdosova and Roberta Vinci will be looking to take advantage of that, but first they must battle each other in an intriguing round one match. Vinci is experienced, crafty, and a former top 20 player, but you feel her singles form is declining as she reaches her advanced years. The 32 year old seems more focused on doubles nowadays with her partner Sara Errani. Gajdosova has shown some good form this year, and as she closes in on the top 50, I expect her to take advantage of a decent draw and make the fourth round. I don’t feel she can go any further though.
Round of 16:
Serena def. Kerber in 2
Safarova def. Makarova in 3
Halep def. Muguruza in 3
Suarez Navarro def. Radwanska in 3
Petkovic def. Bouchard in 3
Wozniacki def. Keys in 3
Ivanovic def. Gajdosova in 2
Sharapova def. Pennetta in 2
Quarter Finals:
Serena def. Safarova in 3
Halep def. Suarez Navarro in 2
Wozniacki def. Petkovic in 2
Sharapova def. Ivanovic in 3
Safarova’s good form will allow her to hand Serena her first set loss in the tournament, but Serena’s power and mental strength will be too much for the Czech to handle. Suarez Navarro will have a good run to the quarter finals, but Halep will prove too consistent, and too good for the Spaniard. Wozniacki loves playing at Indian Wells, and that will show with another deep run here. She shouldn’t have too many problems dispatching Petkovic like most of their previous meetings.
Sharapova vs Ivanovic will be dramatic, and will be very similar to the world number 2’s clash with Azarenka in round two. Sharapova will pull through in another battle of grit and determination. Make sure to check your blood pressure whilst watching this one.
Semi Finals:
Serena def. Halep in 2
Wozniacki def. Sharapova in 3
Serena had her troubles with Halep at the Tour Championships last year, but I hardly expect a repeat. The world number one will be determined and that will see her through in one tight and one dominant set. Wozniacki vs Sharapova is an interesting match-up. The head to head is close at 5-4 in The Russian’s favour, but the Dane has won their past two meetings, both of hard courts. With that in mind, I am predicting Wozniacki to grind her way through in 3 tight sets.
Final:
Serena def. Wozniacki in 2
The battle of best friends will decide the championship at Indian Wells, and as usual Williams will be the victor. The American leads the head to head 10-1, and has a good record at this tournament despite not playing here since 2001. The world number one will cap her return to Indian Wells with another Premier title.
2015 Indian Wells ATP Qualifying Headliners Include Young Guns Coric, Nishioka, Veterans Melzer, Mathieu, and Sela Adam Addicott and Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Whilst the top stars of the ATP World Tour will make their final preparations for the first Masters event of 2015 at Indian Wells on the practice courts. The competitive action in the men’s draw will begin today with the start of the qualifying event. 48 players will battle against each other on court during two rounds in order to win one of the 12 qualification slots in the main draw. The 12 qualifiers will also get a guaranteed $10,485 for playing in the first round.
Heading the seeds will be teenage sensation Borna Coric. The 18-year-old comes into the event will a huge amount of confidence following his impressive run at the ATP Dubai Open where he beat Andy Murray to reach the semi final of the tournament. His Dubai performance has elevated him to a career ranking high of 60 in the world. In the first round, he will play Artem Smirnov from the Ukraine and could potentially face Gastão Elias in the next round if all goes to plan. If the Croatian qualifies for the main draw, it will be the first Master event that he has participated in. Look for Coric, if he can avoid a hangover from Davis Cup in Europe, to qualify as he’s the strongest player in his section by far.
Second seed Go Soeda has so far experienced a very average start to 2015. He reached the second round of the Australian Open after beating Elias Ymer in the first round and also reached the second round of the ATP Zagreb Open. Despite being ranked 84 in the world, the Japanese player is yet to beat a top 100 played in 2015. The highest ranked player he has beaten so far this year was Matthias Bachinger (119) last month. In the first round, he will player world 164 Alex Bolt. Soeda comes off Davis Cup for Japan, and may be fatigued, giving Bolt a decent shot an upset, however the Aussie is 1-2 with a retirement in his last four matches, and that does not bode well for his chances. I expect Alejandro Falla to be the round 2 opponent for Soeda, as the veteran ball striker is in better form than James McGee, even though he’s struggled all year himself. McGee has lost four straight, while Falla has at least managed some wins at a lower level. I also favor Falla over Soeda to qualify.
Jurgen Melzer (3) is bidding to play in the Indian Wells main draw for the 12th consecutive year. Melzer, who reached the fourth round of the tournament back in 2010, is hoping to regain some solid form in his game after a poor month. The former world number 8 has lost 5 out of his last 6 matches played. The veteran player will open up his qualifying campaign against another veteran player Danai Udomchoke. 33-year-old Udomchoke is currently ranked 326 in the world, however he has been ranked high as 77 back in 2007. On paper this sound be a straight forward encounter for Melzer and could potentially face 2014 Australian Open junior champion Alexander Zverev in the final round.Given his poor showing in Davis Cup, I see Melzer winning his round 2 match but losing to either the young gun Zverev, or American veteran Michael Russell, who always plays his best on home soil.
Completing the top five seeds are Damir Džumhur and Spainiard Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Dzumhur, who rose to media spotlight last year where he reached the third round as a qualifier at the Australian Open, will play Frank Dancevic in their first ever meeting. Meanwhile Gimeno-Trove will play Jason Jung from America in what will also be their first ever meeting. Dzumhur played well in Davis Cup, so he should be able to defeat Dancevic and veteran Philipp Petzschner or Marco Cecchinato thereafter to qualify.
As for DGT, if he wins his first match over Jung, he will not be favored, given he much prefers clay, against Aljaz Bedene who has had a strong 2015 thus far. Bedene has American Dennis Novikov as his first opponent.
6 seed Tobias Kamke has an interesting round 1 match against Nikoloz Basilashvili of the Republic of Georgia. Basilashvili started the year off strong and won his first ever ATP main draw match, but he’s cooled off since then with three straight ATP qualifying losses. Kamke is to some extent a declining veteran so I have him falling to Basilashvili, and then the Georgian regaining form and qualifying with a win over either Alex Kuznetsov or Victor Hanescu, both steady veterans.
7 seed Farrukh Dustov, who has a challenger title this season, should defeat struggling young American Mackenzie McDonald, but he’s not the favorite in his section, that title goes to the retiring serve and volleyer Michael Berrer, who will face young gun Taro Daniel (who he beat this year in AO qualies). Berrer should qualify given his good form this year, that included a win over Rafael Nadal in Doha, though this is an unpredictable section.
Look for Aussie J.P. Smith to upset Filip Krajinovic, the 8 seed. Krajinovic played Davis Cup this weekend and he’s not as formidable on hard courts, while Smith is perhaps nearing a major breakthrough. Either Smith or Polish veteran Lukasz Kubot are most likely to qualify in this section, as Kubot also comes off DC duty and faces another Aussie, Luke Saville in round 1.
9 seed James Duckworth does not have an easy matchup with rapidly improving American Jared Donaldson who will have the home fans behind him. I believe in Donaldson this time around to qualify on home soil, with wins over Duckworth and American Rajeev Ram, who faces Marco Trungelliti in round 1.
10 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu, who has been up and down this season, faces USC standout Yannick Hanfmann, a wild card, and then he is likely to face his struggling countryman Edouard Roger-Vasselin in round 2 (ERV faces dirtballer Guido Andreozzi in round 1). ERV has plenty of talent but he’s been poor for quite some time, and PHM should be the one to qualify.
Davis Cup Hero James Ward also has a good shot at qualifying as he continues his quest to break into the top 100, Ward Faces Mitchell Krueger of the USA in round 1, and then the winner of Yoshito Nishioka vs. the veteran Mischa Zverev (the older brother of Alex), in round 1. I have Nishioka qualifying, as he did in Delray, but Ward is also playing well so it’s a tough call.
12 seed Dudi Sela struggled in Davis Cup action for Israel, but he’s still favored to beat young American Taylor Harry Fritz. Look for a relatively in-form Thiemo De Bakker to beat Emilio Gomez and then Sela to qualify, as he could pose a threat to the main draw entrants if he does qualify. De Bakker has always had the talent, but his effort and desire has been lacking at times.
The action should be quite exciting from Indian Wells, and Adam will have a recap of the qualifying results once the qualifying tournament concludes on Wednesday.
