Milos Raonic scored his second career win over Roger Federer, as the Canadian upset the Swiss legend 6-4 6-4 in Brisbane. Federer was suffering from the flu this week, and it showed, even though he reached the final. Raonic had that extra edge when needed to hold serve and grab a break in both sets, and he’s continuing to improve his bid for the top 10 with his 8th career ATP title.
Raonic needed three sets over Ivan Dodig, but his straight set wins over Lucas Pouille, and Bernard Tomic prepared him well for the final. Not much is new with Raonic’s game, but when he serves and returns as well as he did this week, he’s hard to stop.
A flu ravaged Federer still played well against Tobias Kamke, slipped past Grigor Dimitrov in three sets, and handled Dominic Thiem in straights. Dimitrov choked under pressure, while a subdued Federer was somewhat more aggressive than usual.
Henri Kontinen and John Peers beat Aussies Chris Guccione and James Duckworth in the doubles final.
Novak Djokovic will head into the Australian Open as a heavy favorite after his blistering warm-up run in Doha. The Serbian superstar and world #1 won his sixth consecutive tournament dating back to last season, and captured his first ever title in Doha with a thumping 6-1 6-2 win over Rafael Nadal. Djokovic has owned Nadal in recent years, and though the Spaniard played well before the final, he could only watch in awe as his game was dismantled from the start, later going on to compliment Djokovic’s performance.
Novak beat Dustin Brown, Fernando Verdasco, Leonardo Mayer, and Tomas Berdych as well this week, all without dropping a set, as he was rarely tested in Qatar.
Nadal lost his third ATP final in a row, but he still clawed his way past Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets, Robin Haase, Andrey Kuznetsov, and first time ATP semifinalist Illya Marchenko in the semifinals. Marchenko had the run of his life this week, scoring wins over David Ferrer, Teymuraz Gabashvili, and Jeremy Chardy with sharp, powerful baseline play. Things appear to be on the upswing for both players, and Nadal appears to be improving on hard courts.
The Lopez brothers, Feliciano and Marc, beat Philipp Petzschener and Alexander Peya in the doubles final.
Stan Wawrinka won his fourth ATP Chennai title (third in a row) with a resounding win over first time ATP finalist Borna Coric 6-3 7-5. We’ll be seeing more from Coric, as the 19 year old won three setters over Marcel Granollers, Roberto Bautista Agut, and improving semifinalist Aljaz Bedene. He also beat Austin Krajicek in round 2 this week.
Wawrinka was simply the toast of the town with routine straight set wins over Andrey Rublev, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Benoit Paire before the final. He too looks to be a threat heading into the Australian Open as well, and could challenge Djokovic like he has in the past in Melbourne.
Oliver March and Fabrice Martin defeated Krajicek/Paire in the doubles final.
Somdev Devvarman creates home joy in Chennai Open Qualifying Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
There were casualties galore at the Chennai Open qualifying draw after five out of the six highest seed seeds failed to secure a place in the main draw.
Headlining the draw was Swedish youngster Elias Ymer. The world No.136 has been labelled as the most promising player in Swedish tennis, however, he has endured a mixed season last year. Besides clinching his first Challenger title in Italy, he lost in the first round at a tournament 10 times during 2015. Putting 2015 behind him, Ymer experienced a disappointing start to the new year after suffering a 7-5, 6-2, loss to Ante Pavic.
Pavic was able to continue his winning start to the year after defeating India’s Sriram Balaji in two tiebreak sets to reach the main draw. The successful qualifying campaign is a boost to Pavic’s confidence after dealing with the effects of mononucleosis over the past year. At his lowest Pavic spent one-and-a-half months housebound as he tried to recover from the illness.
The highest ranked player to qualify for the main draw was Italian third seed Thomas Fabbiano. The world No.157 enjoyed a duo of straightforward wins to reach his first main draw on the ATP Tour since the Croatia Open last July. He won opening match after Russia’s Mikhail Elgin retired during the second set. Then in his following match, he faced 5th seed Saketh Myneni. Myneni is ranked 170th in the world and won one Challenger title last year in Ho Chi Minh City. The Indian was no match for Fabbiano as the Italian took the 6-4, 6-2 win after an hour and 16 minutes.
The sole success for the home crowd occurred when Somdev Devvarman stunned British second seed James Ward 2-6, 7-5, 6-4. Both men reached the second round after producing straight sets wins over a duo of Indian players. Ward was on course to the victory after leading 6-2, 3-1, before he came unstuck at the hands of the Indian world No.177. Towards the end of the second set, Devvarman broke Ward for a chance to serve for the set. The task was easy for him as he opened up a 40-0 lead before converting his second set point to force the match into a decider. The momentum for the Indian continued into the final set as he claimed four consecutive games on his way to reaching the main draw.
completing the four qualifiers is Slovakia’s Jozef Kovalík. Last year the 23-year-old failed to win a title on the challenger tour with his best result being runner-up at the Mestre Challenger in Italy. Kovalik opened up his Chennai mission with a 6-3, 6-0, win over little-known Indian player Prajnesh Gunneswaran. Following his easy opening win, he experienced a tougher encounter against Russian fourth seed Alexander Kudryavtsev. After dropping the first set, Kovalik battled back to win 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-1, to reach his first main draw on the ATP World Tour.
Kovalik and Fabbiano will face off and one of them will earn their first ever ATP main draw win, Devvarman faces young wild card Andrey Rublev and Pavic will be opposite accomplished veteran Nicolas Almagro in a tough contest.
2016 ATP Chennai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour’s only stop in India takes place in Chennai to start the season, it’s a 250 on hard courts.
ATP Chennai
Aircel Chennai Open
ATP World Tour 250
Chennai, India
Surface: Hard
January 4-10, 2016
Prize Money: $425,535
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4)
2: Kevin Anderson (12)
3: Benoit Paire (19)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (25)
Three top 20 players in Chennai as it has the weakest field of the tournaments this week.
First round matchups to watch:
(WC)Andrey Rublev vs. (Q)Somdev Devvarman
The Russian teenager Rublev was a poor 6-11 in his first ATP matches last season, but he went a solid 20-12 below the ATP main draw level and has tremendous potential if he can get his game under control. We could see a breakthrough from him this season.
Devvarman qualified and remains the top Indian tennis player, the 30 year has struggled to get himself up to the ATP tour level and stay there, he’s a solid ball striker but lacks weapons, and when the wheels come off he has trouble winning matches. Playing on home soil should help him, but the more talented Rublev should be the favorite.
GGL had his best year on tour in five years as the all-courter went 31-25 in 2015 and played quality tennis that threatened the best players when his shotmaking game was on point. Thus he’ll be the favorite in this one, but Taro Daniel, who finished 2015 strong with a challenger tour final, and title, could upset the apple cart.
Daniel remains talented but inconsistent, at 22 he’s in the top 100, but went just 1-5 at the ATP main tour level last year and 61-23 below that. The Japanese-American prefers clay, but he can hold his own on hard courts, and could test GGL if the Spaniard is rusty to start the season.
Luca Vanni vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Vanni was one of the great stories of the 2015 season, at 30 years old the Italian journeyman reached the ATP level, and the top 100, for the first time, going 4-9, and 36-24 below that main draw level, a career year. Now Luca is expected to back that up with more main draw wins, and he could get one against J.L Struff who was a horrible 4-18 at the ATP main draw level last season, and struggles being mentally tough when it counts. Struff has plenty of talent, but until he works on his mind he’ll struggle.
Three-time and defending Chennai champion Stan Wawrinka should blitz his way to the quarterfinals as the Swiss will open with the Rublev/Devvarman winner. Garcia-Lopez is his likely quarterfinal opponent, as the Spaniard will face Nicolas Almagro or qualfier Ante Pavic in round 2. Almagro is still fighting to get back to the top 20 player he was, and he went 18-20 at the main tour level last season, he should get past Pavic, a 26 year old journeyman. Almagro and GGL have a 5-5 h2h presently.
Wawrinka is 4-0 on fast surfaces against Garcia-Lopez and his 55-18 record last year was his most ever wins on tour. Given his history in Chennai, look for the momentum to continue for Stan the man in a backhand battle with Garcia-Lopez as he’ll reach the semis.
The pressure is on Benoit Paire to maintain his top 20 ranking as the Frenchman broke out of a malaise and made good on his tremendous talent last season with a 64-27 mark in tournament matches. Paire remains erratic and exciting, should he continue to maintain his focus, look for him to defeat either Santiago Giraldo or Lukas Rosol in his first match. Rosol and Giraldo both underperformed on the ATP tour last year and need to show quick improvement to avoid an even worse decline in their rankings, which both sit outside of the top 50 now. Rosol should beat Giraldo, but fall to Paire.
#6 seed Gilles Muller poses a threat to burst through his draw section with big serving and crisp volleys. Muller went 34-25 in a great year at the tour level for the tall 32 year old. He should get past Russian teen Karen Khachanov in round 1 as Khachanov has talent but limited ATP experience (3-4 in his career). After that he should have no trouble with a qualifier, either Jozef Kovalik or Thomas Fabbiano. Kovalik is making his ATP main draw debut at 23, while Fabbiano has never won an ATP match at 26, someone will win their first ATP main draw match in that one.
Muller and Paire are 1-1 in the h2h, but Paire’s strong finish to last season and superior talent suggests to me he should have an edge to advance to the semifinals, though staying focused is important against a server of Muller’s caliber.
Big serving South African Kevin Anderson had a career best 46-24 ATP mark last season and he’ll look to maintain his top 15 ranking with a good tournament result here. Anderson should have little trouble against his first opponent, either Ramkumar Ramanathan or Daniel Gimeno-Traver. DGT is poor off of clay, and Ramanathan is a talented 21 year old Indian still looking to make his ATP main draw move. He’s been a solid challenger level player, and I see him winning his round 1 match on home soil before falling to Anderson and his serve.
Anderson and fellow big server Vasek Pospisil are on a track to meet in the quarterfinals. Pospisil improved last season with a 28-25 mark overall and he’s better on hard courts than his first round opponent Aljaz Bedene, who fell to Pospisil in Valencia last fall. Vasek will face the Vanni/Struff winner in round 2, and he’s the best player talent wise in his section. Anderson should prove too much for Pospisil in the quarterfinals as I’d be surprised to see the lanky South African stumble before the semis.
Former Chennai finalist Roberto Bautista Agut is the highlight of a field that features five Spanish players in the main draw. RBA has had just over 40 wins his previous two ATP seasons and is a consistent competitor these days just below an elite level. He could be tested in his first match against the John Millman/Evgeny Donskoy winner, but his hard court ball striking is above their level. Millman is a talent but he was just 5-9 at the main tour level last year and hasn’t quite made his ATP move yet, and is running out of time at 26. Donskoy has struggled to get back to ATP main draws at 25 but the Russian also has talent.
RBA vs. Borna Coric is the likely quarterfinal matchup. The Croatian teenager had a solid 35-30 season, with a vast majority of his matches coming at the ATP main draw level. Coric is here to stay as a young talent and it will be interesting to see how his game will improve this season. Struggling veteran Marcel Granollers is his first opponent, Granollers isn’t at his best on hard courts. After that it will be either Rajeev Ram or Austin Krajicek. Both Krajicek and Ram experienced ATP success last year, and Krajicek made improving strides in 2015, however Ram, as an Indian, should have an edge at home soil with his serve and volley game.
Coric should test RBA but given this surface and a 2-0 h2h in favor of the Spaniard I have Bautista Agut reaching the semis.
If the veteran Muller serves well on this surface he could well win the entire tournament, Paire and Wawrinka is a challenging path to the final but both could be vulnerable to upsets. Wawrinka went 3-0 against Muller last season with every match featuring a tiebreak.
Predictions
Semis Wawrinka d. Paire
Anderson d. Bautista Agut
Wawrinka is 5-1 against Paire and has won the last three meetings against his best friend on tour, it’s simply not a good matchup for the Frenchman, and Wawrinka should be focusing in on his game early in the season. RBA had a h2h win over Anderson in 2013, but the South African has established a gap between him and players like Bautista on this surface in that span of time, and he’s on pace to reach a hard court final.
Final Wawrinka d. Anderson
Wawrinka is 4-3 on hard courts against Anderson and won their last meeting at the 2015 US Open. It’s a close matchup with a small margin of error, but given Wawrinka’s history in Chennai he’s the favorite to defend his title.
Tennis Atlantic 