2016 ATP Tokyo

Murray Joins 40 Titles Club, Kyrgios Claims Tokyo 500
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Beijing

World #2 Andy Murray is making his push for a year end World number 1 ranking and he took a bed step towards that quest with a 6-4 7-6 victory over Grigor Dimitrov in the Beijing 500 level final. Murray dictated play, getting a needed break in the first set, and easing his way through in a second set tiebreak, despite Dimitrov’s best efforts, showing the difference in class and level between the two players. Murray has now claimed 40 titles in his career, and he’s clearly hungry for more.

@andy_murray pic.twitter.com/J4RLfNiO8M

— indeed spongeworthy (@Swwa7) October 9, 2016

Murray didn’t drop a set against Andreas Seppi, Andrey Kuznetsov, Kyle Edmund, and David Ferrer as he was the king of China for the week, and will look to continue that momentum in Shanghai.

Dimitrov moved to 35-22 on the season with wins over Steve Johnson, Lucas Pouille, and Rafael Nadal, who he dominated in straight sets after dropping sets in his first two matches. His semifinal opponent Milos Raonic went down with an injured ankle so he got a walkover into the final. Unfortunately for the Bulgarian, he is now 0-3 in ATP finals this season.

Pablo Carreno Busta and Rafael Nadal won the doubles title over Jack Sock and Bernard Tomic. Nadal now has 11 ATP doubles titles in his career plus an Olympic gold medal in doubles.

ATP Tokyo

Nick Kyrgios found himself down a set, and in deep trouble late in the third set as well, but the Australian showed surprising poise and a sense of calm as he slipped past David Goffin 4-6 6-3 7-5 and kept himself alive in the race for London. It was the biggest title of Kyrgios young career, worth 500 points, and despite throwing in some errors in the final match, he served well, while Goffin spewed errors when it mattered and got tight himself.

Kyrgios beat Ryan Harrison, Gilles Muller, and Gael Monfils without dropping a set in what was a big week for him. Goffin beat Yoshihito Nishioka, Jiri Vesely, Joao Sousa, and Marin Cilic, dropping just a set to Sousa prior to the final. He’s not the biggest guy on tour but his steady ball striking again yielded a great result.

In the ATP Race for London’s World Tour Finals, Monfils, Cilic, and Nadal boosted their standing, while Goffin and Kyrgios are on the edge of the race at 11th and 12th place respectively. Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori both struggled this week, but Nishikori still looks safe to qualify if he’s fit.

Marcel Granollers and Marcin Matkowski beat Raven Klaasen and Rajeev Ram in the doubles final.

2016 ATP Tokyo Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The Asian swing is in full swing with the ATP 500 level stop in Tokyo. Japanese tennis fans will turn out in droves for their only ATP tournament of the year. Here is a preview with predictions.

Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Tokyo, Japan
October 3-October 9, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $1,368,605

Top 4 seeds (ATP Rankings in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Gael Monfils (8)
3: Tomas Berdych (9)
4: Marin Cilic (11)

Tokyo has three top 10 players and should offer some good matches this week.

First round matchups to watch:

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Jiri Vesely vs. Kevin Anderson

Both players posted ATP quarterfinals last week, and they have split their h2h meetings this year. Anderson needs to string some wins together to boost his ranking back inside the top 40, while Vesely is looking to make the top 50. Anderson upset Nick Kyrgios last week, and if he serves well he should prevail.

(6)Nick Kyrgios vs. (Q)Ryan Harrison

Kyrgios has struggled as of late and seems to be ready to wind down his season while Harrison is on the rise and has won 10 of his past 12 competitive matches. Harrison again came through ATP qualies, and he should test Kyrgios. Kyrgios will have to put effort to win, but if he does he’s still the favorite.

Gilles Muller vs. (3)Tomas Berdych

Despite both players being ATP veterans, they haven’t met since 2004. Muller made the quarters in Metz and plays his best on fast surfaces. Berdych was the champion in Shenzen, so fatigue could be a factor. This isn’t the easiest of first round matches for a player like Berdych, but he should prevail.

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Top Half:

2-time Champion and home hero Kei Nishikori has lost to Nicolas Almagro in Tokyo before, but the Japanese #1 should be safe to win his first couple of matches against a struggling Almagro, and Martin Klizan or Joao Sousa, neither of whom are playing great right now. Nishikori vs. Kevin Anderson is my pick for the quarters as I have Anderson beating Vesely, and then upsetting David Goffin, who opens with wild card Yoshihito Nishioka. Goffin has lost two straight matches, and Anderson’s serve is tough to break. Nishikori should out return Anderson in the quarters though.

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Marin Cilic faces a struggling Benoit Paire, with Fernando Verdasco or Go Soeda to follow, and most likely #8 seed Feliciano Lopez due up in the quarters. Lopez will look to serve and volley past qualifier James Duckworth, and either Juan Monaco or Taylor Fritz, neither of whom are in good form. Cilic has been playing well and I trust him to navigate into the semifinals, Verdasco has been playing poorly as of late.

Bottom Half:

Gael Monfils will look to continue his strong summer season into the Fall. Monfils opens with wild card Yuichi Sugita, with the winner of Gilles Simon/Philipp Kohlschreiber to follow. Kohlschreiber hasn’t been healthy in recent weeks, so Simon should win that match, with Monfils the favorite in round 2.

Veterans Ivo Karlovic and Janko Tipsarevic could matchup in round 2, Karlovic will be the favorite against Federico Delbonis, Tipsarevic comes off an ATP semifinal and faces wild card Taro Daniel. I’m going with Daniel in an upset because Tipsarevic retired in his last match and may not be healthy. I have Monfils slipping past Karlovic in the quarters.

Tomas Berdych will face Marcos Baghdatis or Marcel Granollers after his match with Muller, Nick Kyrgios gets the winner of Radek Stepanek/Stephane Robert in round 2, with Berdych likely to follow. Stepanek has been great in ATP qualifying this year and could trouble Kyrgios, Baghdatis isn’t likely to defeat Berdych in round 2. I have Berdych defeating Kyrgios because the Czech has been more consistent lately.

Dark Horse: Ivo Karlovic

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The top 4 seeds are likely to reach the semifinals, if Karlovic’s serve can click on these fast Tokyo courts he could mess that up by upsetting Monfils in the quarterfinals, and perhaps Berdych in the semis. I don’t count Karlovic out, even at his age, to make a run in tournaments like this.

Predictions

Semis:
Monfils d. Berdych
Nishikori d. Cilic

Berdych should be out of gas, and Nishikori is playing in his home tournament, even though Cilic clearly has the game to beat him.