Novak Djokovic won his 11th Grand Slam, his 6th Australian Open, and captured his third straight Grand Slam in a row with a straight set drubbing of world #2 Andy Murray 6-1 7-5 7-6(3) in the final. The world #1 has now doubled his ranking points compared to his two closest rivals Murray, and Roger Federer, who he defeated in the semifinals in 4 sets 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3.
Djokovic was masterclass in all of his matches, though he stared down a five setter against Gilles Simon in the fourth round. The Serbian has been far and above his rivals since last Summer, and his 12-0 record in 2016, shows no signs of incurring a loss anytime soon. He’s the player to beat in 2016.
Both Murray and Federer are great talents who consistently performed well all tournament, but they were unable to crack the code of Djokovic’s physicality, counter punching, and court coverage. It takes a super human effort to defeat him, something Simon put up, but wasn’t able to maintain over five sets, though the Frenchman for a time was getting to every ball put into play.
Djokovic also comfortably dealt with Hyeon Chung, Quentin Halys, and Andreas Seppi, without dropping a set, but needing a couple of tiebreaks, in the early rounds. In the quarterfinals he crushed Kei Nishikori, another top player who simply had no footing against the world #1. The tennis we are seeing from Djokovic is out of this world right now.
Murray rolled past Alexander Zverev, and Sam Groth, then needed four sets against Joao Sousa to reach the second week. Home Australian Bernard Tomic also failed to grab a set, and David Ferrer took him to four sets in the quarterfinals. Murray’s triumph to reach the final came against Milos Raonic, who was bidding for his first Grand Slam final. The Canadian #1 has shown major improvements this season by playing more aggressively, and coming to net. Raonic had a two set to one lead, but failed to close out the match, as the great returner Murray ended up winning in five sets 4-6 7-5 6-7(4) 6-4 6-2. Murray has had great success in Melbourne, but once more he failed to come home with the Champion’s trophy. The British #1 is rushing home now to be present for the birth of his first child.
Raonic beat Stan Wawrinka by clinching the fifth set and staving off a great comeback from 2 sets to love up, and in the semifinals after that, he dealt with Gael Monfils, who played well, but could only manage to capture a set. Raonic’s great serving took his game to the next level, as he looks capable of challenging for a top five ranking, if he can continue good results on fast surfaces.
Federer scored notable wins in the second week over Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, and Tomas Berdych, as his path was somewhat easier compared to the other semifinalists. Still at his age he continues to perform as an elite player, and remains a threat to win the big tournaments. His game is still working like it has for years.
Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares, a new pairing, won the men’s doubles title in three sets over Daniel Nestor and Radek Stepanek, a pair of grizzled veterans. Jamie Murray won his first major, as his brother Andy cheered him on. It was a great tournament for British tennis.
2016 Australian Open Men’s Week 1 Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Happy Slam is here again as the superstars of tennis will battle in Melbourne, Australia for a steamy two weeks. Here is a preview, with predictions, of the first marquee men’s event of the 2016 tennis calendar.
Australian Open
Grand Slam
Melbourne, Australia
January 18-31, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $44,000,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Kei Nishikori (7)
8: David Ferrer (8)
Richard Gasquet and Thanasi Kokkinakis are the only notable active players missing from this years tournament, both due to injury.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Hyeon Chung
The young South Korean Chung has little chance of stopping Djokovic’s seven match winning streak, but at 19 he continues to make strides, and this is a great form test for him. Facing off with the world #1 on a massive stage. Chung has yet to advance beyond an ATP quarterfinal and he has just one career grand slam win, but if he can capture a set, he’ll win a lot of new fans and admirers.
(28)Andreas Seppi vs. Teymuraz Gabashvili
Seppi is just 2-7 since last year’s US Open and this match has upset potential. The Italian in shaky form after upsetting Roger Federer and reaching the second week last year in Melbourne. Gabashvili comes off his first career ATP semifinal in Sydney and is a shotmaker capable of some surprising results. Seppi leads the h2h 3-1 on hard courts, and 2-0 in slams, but he looks to be a shell of himself right now.
Another match where the seed could be ousted. Simon is an experienced veteran who tends to perform well in grueling slam matches, but he lost his only ATP warm-up contest in Brisbane, and was 0-2 in the Kooyong exhibition as well. Pospisil won a match in Auckland but is just 1-2 in 2016. The Canadian will need to serve well and keep his composure to outlast Simon.
(WC)Omar Jasika vs. Illya Marchenko
The 18 year old Jasika is making his Australian Open main draw debut against Marchenko. Jasika has yet to win an ATP caliber match, but he’s quite the talent, and the home fans should rally behind him in this match against an unseeded opponent. Marchenko reached his first ever ATP semifinal in Doha, and appears to be in the form of his career. Assuming he can continue that good form, the Ukrainian veteran should prevail.
(26)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
A battle of crafty veterans, Mathieu is 2-0 on hard courts against GGL, and the Spaniard looks to be in average form as he tries to defend his round of 16 showing last year. GGL reached the quarters in Chennai, and then lost early in Auckland. Mathieu won a round in Doha, but went 0-2 in the Kooying exhibition. Garcia-Lopez should win this, but it could be quite the battle.
(7)Kei Nishikori vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
This could be a danger zone match for Kei Nishikori, he looked rather brittle in his quarterfinal loss in Brisbane, and he faces an experienced opponent in Kohlschreiber. Peppo has declined a bit at 32, but he still possess a powerful backhand for their first ever meeting. Nishikori has a far superior all-around game, but he could tire in this baseline war.
You never know what you’re going to get with Dolgopolov, he reached the Hopman Cup final and lost in the Sydney quarterfinals, but all that tennis could be his downfall early on in Melbourne. Berankis doesn’t appear to be in great form, but he puts a lot of balls in play and counterpunches from the baseline, something that could cause Dolgopolov errors. Dolgo is the clear favorite, but don’t be surprised if he falls by the wayside.
(5)Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
A long time rivalry with a clear favorite, Nadal is 15-2 in the h2h, and 2-0 in slams but Verdasco won their last hard court meeting in Miami last year. Verdasco has given his countryman many battles over the years. Nadal reached the final in Doha and looks to be playing better this year than last year. Verdasco by contrast is struggling, but this should still feature some great shotmaking. With Nadal likely advancing with relative ease.
(13)Milos Raonic vs. Lucas Pouille
Brisbane champion Milos Raonic still should win, likely in straight sets, but he can’t be happy to have this difficult of a first round match given his seeding. The Manitoba missile faces Pouille, who he just beat in Brisbane 6-4 6-4, as the Frenchman with a powerful forehand performed admirably against Raonic’s serve. Look for a tiebreak or two in this match, and Pouille to perhaps steal a set.
(25)Jack Sock vs. Taylor Fritz
18 year old Taylor Fritz is off to a great start with his professional career as he won a challenger in Australia, and then qualified to move to 8-0 heading into his first Grand Slam main draw match. Fritz is the next great American hope, but he may be exhausted against fellow rising American Jack Sock. Sock traveled the road Fritz is on, and reached the final in Auckland last week. He is suffering from the flu however, and his physical condition is also in question. I tend to expect this match to end in a retirement, with Sock’s experience and conditioning likely helping him through.
(WC)James Duckworth vs. (WC)Lleyton Hewitt
Two Australian wild cards in this one, however Hewitt is a former world #1, and two time Grand Slam champion, playing in his final professional tournament. Duckworth is a 23 year old journeyman who has never had an ATP record above .500 in his career. Duckworth will have his fans, but this match is all about Hewitt bidding goodbye to a tournament, and a sport, he’s contributed so many memorable moments to. Hewitt is a shell of the defensive counterpuncher he once was, but he’s always fought back after injuries, and his game is all about grit and tenacity. After a busy farewell tour in Australia, look for Lleyton to win this and keep his career alive for at least one more match in what should be a memorable night on Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne.
Muller is off to a 4-2 start in warm-up events, and his serve and volley game is well designed for this surface. Fognini reached the quarterfinals in Auckland and is looking to build on the promise he showed late last season on hard courts. Fognini is a talent as always, but his focus could be questionable, and Muller’s consistency should be enough to score him a seeded upset.
(2)Andy Murray vs. Alexander Zverev
Andy Murray handled the young gun Zverev at the Hopman Cup, and he should do so again. This is a form test for Zverev, like it is for Chung, and it’s nice to see young guns getting opportunities against the worlds best in slams. On hard courts I doubt Zverev has the game to handle Murray however, and hopefully this match will prepare the Scotsman well for later rounds.
Djokovic’s quarter:
Novak Djokovic, the defending, and five-time champion, has little chance of even dropping a set in his first three matches, after Chung he’ll face Ivan Dodig or Quentin Halys, a French wild card, who is 0-2 at this level in his career, and has yet to break the top 150, though he’s just 18. Dodig is 7-2 this year, and is off to a fantastic start as he looks to return to the top 50, he’ll be ousted by Djokovic in round 2 however. Gabashvili/Seppi are the favorites to reach the third round. The winner of that match will face Denis Kudla or Filip Krajinovic. Kudla is 2-2 this season and better on hard courts than his opponent. Both Gabashvili and Kudla could reach the third round, while Seppi needs to find form quickly. I’ll go with Gabashvili to find his way to the third round, and then lose to Djokovic.
Simon/Pospisil will face an easier opponent in Evgeny Donskoy or Inigo Cervantes in round 2. Donskoy is superior to Cervantes on hard courts. Look for Simon to face Jiri Vesely or Ivo Karlovic in the third round. Karlovic’s powerful serve should help him past Federico Delbonis, and then Vesely, who has the talent, but can underachieve at times. Karlovic has won the last two meetings against Simon on hard courts, and thus I have him advancing to the round of 16.
#9 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga faces an opening round opponent with a history of success in Melbourne, Marcos Baghdatis. The former AO finalists are in very different places in their careers now however. Tsonga is 5-0 at the ATP level vs. the Cypriot and comes off the semis in Auckland, showing his form is solid. Tsonga should go on to defeat Marchenko/Jasika to setup a third round meeting with charismatic countryman Benoit Paire. Paire, a semifinalist in Chennai, opens with young gun American Noah Rubin, and has Pablo Andujar/Pierre-Hugues Herbert after that. Herbert qualified and has shown signs of a breakthrough at the ATP level, but his success in doubles is far superior to his success in singles. The tall Frenchman should oust a struggling Andujar, but Paire is likely to have too much game. Tsonga is 3-0 against Paire, and though Benwa continues to rise, Jo’s experience should help him through.
Nishikori/Kohlschreiber will have an easier time in the second round against either Austin Krajicek or Di Wu. Neither Krajicek nor the qualifier Wu have much Grand Slam experience. Nishikori over Krajicek is my pick for the second round, with Kei to face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in round 3. The path for GGL after Mathieu is Daniel Brands or Victor Estrella. Estrella is struggling, while Brands is in great form as a qualifier, and on the path to return to the top 100 with his powerful game. Brands is 6-1 in 2016, but GGL is likely still a level above. Nishikori is 2-0 against GGL, and if he wins his opening round match he should have little to no difficulty reaching week 2.
Federer’s quarter:
The four time AO champion Roger Federer faces two potential roadblocks in his path before the second week. Federer, a finalist in Brisbane, should be untroubled by journeyman Nikoloz Basilashvili, with the winner of Berankis/Dolgopolov looming in round 2. Dolgopolov could test Federer with his shotmaking abilities, and force the Swiss to scramble a bit, but presuming Fed is over the flu he should prevail. Grigor Dimitrov would need to suffer a shock defeat to not end up facing Federer in the third round. The Brisbane quarterfinalist, and Sydney finalist, opens with recent challenger champion Paolo Lorenzi, and then the Jozef Kovalik/Marco Trungelliti winner in round 2. Both Kovalik and Trungelliti are in a slam main draw for the first time, enterting as qualifiers, with Kovalik seemingly better on this surface. Barring severe fatigue, it should be Federer vs. Dimitrov. Federer beat Dimitrov while sick in Brisbane, and prior to that Dimitrov hadn’t taken a set off of him, thus the Swiss legend should reach week 2.
#15 seed David Goffin has a draw that should allow him to reach the second week and continue his upwardly trending results as he bids to reach the top 10. The Belgian #1 has struggling serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 1. After that he could run into British young gun Kyle Edmund, a quarterfinalist in Doha, if Edmund can defeat Bosnian Damir Dzhumhur. Goffin’s ball striking game should suit him well enough to reach round 3. #19 seed Dominic Thiem, another rising player, faces Doha quarterfinalist Leonardo Mayer, a veteran who knows the limits of his game, in round 1. Thiem reached the semis in Brisbane, and that recent success should inspire him to get past Mayer and either Nicolas Almagro or Julien Benneteau in round 2. Both Almagro and Benneteau are struggling formerly ATP caliber veterans, and one of them has to win. Thiem vs. Goffin should be one of the matches of the tournament, Goffin is slightly better on hard courts, and I’ll go with him to reach week 2.
#12 seed Marin Cilic could be one of the first big names to exit the tournament. He suffered a quarterfinal defeat in Brisbane, and though Thiemo De Bakker is no problem in round 1, Borna Coric in round 2 is a big problem. Coric should stretch Albert Ramos losing streak to seven in the first round, and then the Chennai finalist will set his sights on Cilic. Cilic has a bigger game than the crafty Coric, and Coric was dismantled by Cilic in Shanghai last year. Expect a close match, and possibly five sets, but I have to go with Cilic’s experience to get him into round 3. Auckland champion and Chennai quarterfinalist Roberto Bautista Agut is riding a wave of form, and possibly the haze of fatigue, against Martin Klizan in round 1. RBA is 2-0 against Klizan on hard courts, and the Slovakian is struggling, thus barring conditioning problems it should be Bautista Agut vs. Sam Querrey round 2 (Querrey opens with Dusan Lajovic). RBA has a h2h win over Querrey, and though Sam could reach round 3 if RBA is unfit, look for Cilic vs. Bautista Agut in the third round. Cilic is 2-0 on hard courts against Bautista Agut, and should be much fitter, giving him the edge to reach week 2.
Seeing anything but a Tomas Berdych vs. Nick Kyrgios third round matchup would be a huge disappointment for the tournament organizers. The Doha semifinalist Berdych opens with India’s Yuki Bhambri, a challenger level player, and then will face either Mirza Basic or Robin Haase. Basic qualified, while Haase is ATP caliber and likely has a minor edge in round 1, before falling to Berdych in round 2. Kyrgios, who has a great grand slam record for his age, spent his time on the exhibition circuit prior to the AO (won the Hopman Cup), hurting his foot in Kooyong, though he should be recovered in time for Melbourne. The combustible Aussie is their great hope and his campaign will start against Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta. PCB has improved on hard courts over the past year, but Kyrgios aggressive game should still outwork him. The speedy Yoshihito Nishioka is NK’s likely opponent in round 2. Nishioka faces veteran Pablo Cuevas, who tends to prefer clay, in the first round. The young Japanese player is talented, but a healthy Kyrgios should rise on the biggest stage. Berdych and Kyrgios have never met, and that match could go either way. Kyrgios is known for winning big matches, but Berdych is more consistent and experienced. I have the Czech’s power game helping him reach the second week, as he’s a solid top 10 player, unlike NK as of yet.
Stan Wawrinka‘s quarter features the only other active AO winners besides Djokovic, and Federer. 2014 champion Stan the man is in a section that is easy going early on with Dmitry Tursunov, returning from a long time injury, as his first opponent, and then a qualifier in round 2, either Tatsuma Ito or Radek Stepanek. The veteran Stepanek can be a tricky opponent with his serve and volley game, but the Chennai champion should roll into the second week with wins over Tursunov, Stepanek, and either the Sock/Fritz or Lukas Rosol/Taro Daniel winner. There is an opening for Auckland quarterfinalist Rosol to reach the third round, as Sock/Fritz should be exhausted. I have Wawrinka over Rosol to reach the second week.
Raonic/Pouille will face Tommy Robredo or Malek Jaziri in round 2. Raonic’s 5-0 record against Robredo, who usually does well in slams, bodes well for his chances to reach the third round. The other seed in this section is #21 Viktor Troicki, the Sydney champion. Troicki is likely fatigued, and Canberra challenger semifinalist Daniel Munoz De La Nava, a rare Spaniard who prefers hard courts, is his first opponent. If Troicki wins, qualifier Tim Smyczek likely awaits. Smyczek faces dirtballer Daniel Gimeno-Traver in round 1. The American baseliner is unlikely to ever be a top 50 player, but he has enough ability to upset a fatigued Troicki and sneak into the third round. Raonic should roll into week two however, given the nature of the draw.
2009 AO Champion Rafael Nadal will face another veteran after Verdasco. In round 2 he’ll battle with either Benjamin Becker or Dudi Sela, both of whom lack the stature to defeat his defensive prowess. Sela reached a challenger final in Australia, while Becker has already gone through ATP qualifying to reach main draws twice this year. After most likely Sela, Nadal is slated to face Jeremy Chardy in the third round. The Doha and Sydney quarterfinalist Chardy rarely beats anyone he isn’t supposed to, but a struggling Ernests Gulbis isn’t as difficult of an opponent as he would seem to be in round 1. Doha quarterfinalist Andrey Kuznetsov will face qualifier Ryan Harrison in the opening round. The Russian is a slight favorite as Harrison has never made good on his potential. Chardy should outhit Kuznetsov, before falling to Nadal, who leads him in the h2h 2-0.
#11 seed Kevin Anderson has a favorable early draw, and then a difficult third round match looming against #23 seed Gael Monfils. Kev had a knee injury in Chennai, but won a match in Auckland to reach the quarterfinals, and this surface still suits him well. Anderson opens with former NCAA teammate Rajeev Ram (at the University of Illinois), the serve and volleying veteran actually has a positive h2h with the South African, but they haven’t played in 9 years. Anderson’s star has risen far higher than Ram’s in that time span as he’s grown into his big serving game. Anderson will then face either qualifier Stephane Robert, or lucky loser Bjorn Fratangelo. Robert is a 35 year old, lifetime Challenger tour battler, who tends to pop up in slam main draws, and occasionally grabs a win or two. Fratangelo is a young American on the rise. Anderson should handle either player easily with his serve.
Monfils hasn’t played a match this season due to a winter leg injury, and you never know how the acrobatic Frenchman is going to play. With that said he should handle qualifier Yuichi Sugita, and then Nicolas Mahut or Marco Cecchinato. The serve and volleying stalwart Mahut comes off the quarters in Sydney, while the Italian Cecchinato prefers clay. Monfils leads Mahut 3-0 in the h2h. Anderson trails Monfils 0-3 in the h2h, and it’s a big style contrast between his serve and forehand combo, with Monfils defense, shotmaking, and athletic speed. I’m going to go with Gael, knowing he could crash and burn, as I have him finding the second week and playing well this tournament. Everything is resting on his legs so to speak.
Andy Murray/Zverev will face either big server Sam Groth or Adrian Mannarino in round 2. Groth is in terrible form (0-5 in his last 5), though he’ll have home support. Mannarino won an early challenger title, and will likely get a rematch against Murray after pushing him to five sets at the 2015 US Open. Murray’s third round opponent is somewhat up in the air, but he’ll be a strong favorite against any opponent. Portugal’s #1 Joao Sousa lost his only warm-up match, Mikhail Kukushkin, his first round opponent, is 3-2 this year. Donald Young is unpredictable, and Santiago Giraldo is on an ATP losing streak. Sousa vs. Young is my pick for the round 2 matchup, with Sousa advancing based off his baseline game, before falling to Murray. This is a great chance for any of these four players.
A section featuring tank maestros Fabio Fognini and Bernard Tomic is almost certain to feature a tank, even in a Grand Slam. Tomic tanked in Sydney due to his “good draw” in Melbourne, criticism aside, the Australian has actually been playing reasonably well as of late, and he does have a shot to reach the second week. The Brisbane semifinalist will need to make Denis Istomin 0-3 to start the year in round 1, and then handle Simone Bolelli’s forehand in round 2. Bolelli will take on Brian Baker, playing under a protected ranking at age 30, in his first ATP level match since the 2013 US Open. Bolelli is on a four match losing streak, but nothing can be expected from Baker. Tomic should in fact make the third round, and likely be the last Australian remaining, depending on what Kyrgios does.
Fognini/Muller will face John Millman or Diego Schwartzman in round 2. DSS has improved on hard courts, while Millman will have home support. Muller/Fognini should beat either one, and I have Muller reaching the third round. Muller’s 4-0 h2h against Tomic makes him one of the few unseeded players with a great shot at reaching the second week, and I have him doing so.
John Isner opens with Jerzy Janowicz. Isner lost in his second match in Auckland, but he’s taking on an opponent who has disappointed given his level of talent, and prepared for the Australian Open by playing video games . Isner should go on to dispatch veteran Marcel Granollers after Janowicz, Granollers opens with journeyman wildcard Matt Ebden, an Aussie. The Spaniard comes off a challenger semi, but is not up to Isner’s level. #18 Feliciano Lopez got a lucky draw that should help him snap a four match losing streak. Lopez opens with qualifier Dan Evans, who might be capable of a big upset, and then will face either Guido Pella or Steve Darcis. Pella prefers clay and Darcis is a journeyman, making it likely it will be Isner vs. Lopez in an underwhelming third round matchup. Lopez leads Isner 2-1 on hard courts in the h2h, but I favor Isner to reach the second week with a strong tournament. Lopez played the Kooyong Exo.
David Ferrer struggled by his usual lofty standards heading into the Australian Open with a pedestrian 2-2 record, and a semifinal in Auckland. The Spaniard has little chance of being eliminated early however.His round 1 opponent Peter Gojowczyk is a qualifier ranked outside the top 200 these days, while the Duckworth/Hewitt winner results in Ferrer either facing a journeyman, or a worn out Hewitt in what will likely be the last match of his career. Surely Hewitt will put his heart into a night contest on Laver against Ferrer, but the matchup does not bode well for him given Ferrer’s grinding style, speed, and baseline play that should wear the veteran Aussie down.
#31 Steve Johnson is seeded, but he’s struggling to start the year, and that puts a damper on his chances to make a run in Melbourne. Johnson opens with Aljaz Bedene, who on the one hand reached the semis in Chennai, but at the same time retired a week later in Auckland, and may not be entirely fit. The winner of that will face either Thomaz Bellucci or Australian Jordan Thompson. Thompson has promise, while Bellucci has struggled to start the year, but the veteran Brazilian should find a way to win. Johnson over Bellucci is still my second round pick, though it’s the weakest section of the draw. Ferrer should dispatch anyone he faces and reach the second week.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter): Vasek Pospisil, Borna Coric, Gael Monfils, Gilles Muller
Pospisil reached the quarterfinal of a slam for the first time last season, and also has reached the third round in Melbourne twice. The Canadian bomber not named Raonic will need to get past Simon, but if he does, he’s facing a likely third round rematch with Karlovic, who he just defeated in Auckland, for a spot in the second week.
Coric could make his move this with this draw. He hasn’t made the second week of a major yet and Cilic is a round 2 obstacle, along with RBA in round 3, but the young Croatian has the game to get him that far and setup a meeting with Berdych/Kyrgios to start the second week. It’s just a matter of time before “The Borna Identity” makes his move.
Monfils hasn’t made the fourth round in Australia since 2009, and with a leg injury he’s a big question mark. His section is relatively open however with Anderson primarily in his way, and if he makes the second week he could challenge Nadal with his athleticism. Monfils is both talented and frustrating at the same time, and we’ll see which version shows up.
Muller has to beat Fognini and Tomic to reach the fourth round, like he did last year in Melbourne, I don’t see him getting past Murray, but stranger things have happened, and he’s a crafty veteran who knows what it takes to win. Should he serve well, he can maintain his ranking points this week.
Djokovic d. Karlovic
Tsonga d. Nishikori
Federer d. Goffin
Berdych d. Cilic
Nadal d. Monfils
Wawrinka d. Raonic
Isner d. Ferrer
Murray d. Muller
Karlovic is 3-0 against Djokovic on hard courts (including a win last year), and Djokovic can struggle against big servers, making this a dangerous match for him. The World #1 is far and above the best in the game right now though, and I’d still be shocked to see him lose such a crucial match.
Nishikori is 4-1 against Tsonga on hard courts, but Jo beat him in the French last year, and I favored the way Tsonga looked before the tournament compared to Nishikori, who could struggle if this is a day match in the heat.
Federer is 3-0 against Goffin, Nadal is 6-2 against Monfils, with Anderson perhaps more of a worry, though Rafa’s good recent results should secure him the confidence to win. Murray is 4-0 against Muller, Wawrinka is 4-0 against Raonic, though Raonic looked good in Brisbane, Wawrinka was just as good in Chennai.
Ferrer is 4-1 against Isner, but I have Isner winning due to Ferrer’s poor early results, it’s time for the American to turn the corner and get a big win, while the curtain could be closing for Ferrer’s consistent runs to quarters and semis in slams. Berdych is 4-2 against Cilic on hard courts, it’s a close matchup, but the Czech does better on hard courts than Cilic, who has a similar style.
Quarters: Djokovic d. Tsonga
Federer d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Nadal
Murray d. Isner
Federer has won the last four (last three hard court) matches against Berdych, Djokovic is just 7-6 against Tsonga on hard courts, but recently he’s steered a course well above players that hover around the top 10.
Wawrinka vs. Nadal could be the match of the tournament, Nadal used to destroy Wawrinka, but their last four meetings on hard courts are tied 2-2, and Wawrinka has raised his level, while Nadal isn’t quite the same player he was. the AO suits Stan, and another semi looks to be in store for him. Murray, one of the best returners in the game, has a great draw to the semis, and should handle Isner (5-0 h2h) or Ferrer in the quarters.
Semis: Djokovic d. Federer
Wawrinka d. Murray
Djokovic vs. Federer is an enjoyable matchup, and they went an even 3-3 against one another on hard courts last season. Djokovic has won the previous three Grand Slam, best of five, matches though, and his conditioning and mental toughness has surpassed the now 34 year old Federer.
Wawrinka has won his last three meetings against Murray and appears to have cracked the code as to how to beat him. Either could reach the final, but I have a feeling Wawrinka will post yet another slam final and give himself a rivalry showdown with Djokovic.
Final:
Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Djokovic is 4-0 on hard courts since losing to Wawrinka at the 2014 AO, but it still stings for Novak that Wawrinka nipped him in that French Open final last year. Wawrinka denied him the calendar year Grand Slam with that win, and won his second Grand Slam title. This would be a competitive and enjoyable slam final, I just don’t see anyone being able to stop Djokovic and take three sets off of him in the next two weeks.
Newcomers and Old Faces Shine During 2016 Australian Open Men’s Qualifying Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
The final round of qualifying for the upcoming Australian Open saw sucess for the newcomers to the tour as well as the veterans of the game.
Dan Evans has become the fourth British man in the main draw after completing a dream run in the qualifying tournament. The world No.185 produced the upset of the event in the first round when he defeated top seed Luca Vanni in straight sets. The Brit then almost made an exit in the second round after trailing by a set and 0-3 before battling back to defeat Israel’s Amir Weintraub 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-2. In the final round Evans faced 17th seed Bjorn Fratangelo. The American defeated Canada’s Frank Dancevic and Spain’s Oriol Roca Batalla in his first two matches. The final showdown was a mixed encounter for both men. Evans endured a second set blip against the 2011 French Open boys champion before winning 7-5, 4-6, 6-0 after almost two hours.
Throughout the tournaments Evans has been cheered on by world No.2 Andy Murray. During his second round match Murray was spotted in the crowd cheering him on. The 25-year-old will play in his first Grand Slam main draw since the 2014 Wimbledon Championships. Evans has put his qualifying triumph down to his ability to focus on the sport more.
“It’s nice [qualifying for the main draw],” Evans said. “I worked hard in pre-season in La Manga, even in the summer when I was playing in England in the Futures I was trying to work pretty hard. It was playing tennis and staying professional. “I think that’s the difference, just staying focused on court and staying more interested and focused on just playing tennis rather than all the other stuff, and that’s pretty much what I did.”
Frantagelo also made the main draw as a lucky loser, as he continues to improve his standing on the tennis tour.
23-year-old Slovak Jozef Kovalik have qualified for his first ever Grand Slam main draw after stunning second seed Ruben Bemelmans 6-2, 7-6(7). Kovalik, who hasn’t won a title since 2014, made an impressive start after breaking his Belgian opponent twice in the opening set to take it after 34 minutes on the court. Bemelmans responded at the start of the second set by breaking for a 2-0 lead before Kovalik eventually broke back in the sixth game to level proceedings. With the prospect of reaching the main draw, Kovalik endured a nerve-wracking tiebreaker. After racing to a 6-3 lead, Bemelmans triumphantly battled back to level at 6-6. Despite the late resurgence from his opponent, Kovalik held his nerve by taking the win on his fifth match point.
Tim Smyczek was the highest player to qualify for the main draw. Last year at the Australian Open, the American earned praise following his outstanding performance against Rafael Nadal in the second round. Smyczek took two sets off the 9-time French Open champion before being edged out 7-5 in the final set. During this year’s qualifying, the third seed defeated Brazil’s Jose Pereira and Russia’s Aslan Karatsev in straight sets. In the deciding round, he faced French 29th seed Kenny de Schepper. The Frenchman endured a marathon second round match, defeating Estonia’s Jurgen Zopp 12-10 ion the final set. It was a far from a straightforward final match for Smyczek who overcame Schepper 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. In the final set the world No.108 was a break down before breaking back twice to secure the win.
China’s Di Wu reached his third Australian Open main draw without dropping a set. The 24-year-old is currently ranked 240th in the world and won two Futures titles on the tour last year. In the second round he defeated Italian 26th seed Thomas Fabbiano 6-1, 6-4, to set up a final clash with Belgium Niels Desein. Desein knocked out Colombian fourth seed Alejandro Falla in the second round. Wu encountered little difficulty against Desein as he broke the belgian five times to seal the 6-3, 6-1, victory.
37-year-old Radek Stepanek defeated two seeded players to reach his 13th consecutive Australian Open main draw. The Czech knocked out German fifth seed Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4, 6-4, in the second round. Awaiting Stefanek in the final round was former world No.70 Alejandro Gonzalez. Gonzalez battled his way to the third round after a two three-set wins over Henri Laaksonen and wildcard Marinko Matosevic. Stepanek proved too strong for the 24th seed sealing the 6-3, 6-1, win after 75 minutes.
The Australian Open is a special place for Bosnian tennis. In 2014 Damir Džumhur became the first Bosnian player to play in a Grand Slam draw at the Melbourne tournament. Now Mirza Basic has become the second player from his country to play in a Grand Slam main draw. In Basic’s final match he played India’s Saketh Myneni. The world No.137 was on course to clinch the final set with a 5-2 advantage before Myneni clawed his way back to 5-5. Despite the Indian comeback, Basic broke his opponent for the third time in the match to win 3-6, 6-4, 8-6.
Ryan Harrison saved four match points during the second set to battle past Aleksandr Nedovyesov 6-7 (8), 7-6(6), 6-3. During the tiring encounter, which lasted two hours and 40 minutes, Harrison got a stronghold in the match after racing to 3-0 in the final set. The lead was enough for him to secure the match. The 23-year-old will play in the main draw for the sixth consecutive year. Harrison has a main draw win-loss of 1-5 going into this year’s tournament. His only main draw win in Melbourne against Andrey Kuznetsov in 2013.
German world No.224 Peter Gojowczyk booked his place in the main draw without facing a seeded player. The German produced an impressive second round win over American teenage world No.177 Francis Tiafoe. Next up for the German was Russia’s Alexander Kudryavtsev. The Russian stunned 8th seed Go Soeda in his second round match. Playing Kudryavtsev, Gojowczyk produced a mixed performance. After losing the opening set, the German held a 5-1 lead in the second set before losing four consecutive games. Nevertheless, the world No.224 managed to overcome his difficulties to win 3-6,7-6(3), 6-2.
One of the most promising young players on the ATP Tour, Taylor Fritz, booked his place in the main draw after battling past Mischa Zverev 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-4. The 18-year-old was on course to losing the match after going behind 0-4 in the final set before impressive winning six consecutive games to reach his maiden Australian Open main draw. Since winning the US Open boys title last year, Fritz has a win-loss record of 25-4. After staging the epic comeback, Fritz spoke of his delight.
“It feels great, what an amazing way to do it,” Fritz laughed. “I was playing solid and then so many times I was asking myself: ‘What do I do?’ There were so many points where I thought I didn’t think I could possibly play better and he beat on them.“I told myself keep competing and not to give up and if he could keep doing what he was doing then that was too good and I’ve got to give it to him.
“I got on top. I started playing really well, got a lot of momentum on my side, was getting really pumped up and was able to finish it.”
Daniel Brands has reached his first Grand Slam main draw since the 2014 French Open after outplaying James McGee 7-6(1), 6-4. Brands have been ranked as high as 51st in the world in 2013 but has been troubled by the effects of mononucleosis in recent years. The recent trouble resulted in him dropping outside of the top 400 last year. Fourtnastely for the 28-year-old, he ended 2015 on a positive note by reaching the quarterfinals of the Valencia Open as a qualifier.
In the battle of the Frenchmen, Pierre-Hughes Herbert edged out Edouard Roger-Vasselin 6-3,1-6,9-7. Hebert is known best for his performance in the doubles after winning the US Open title last year with Nicolas Mahut. Prior to his triumph over Roger-Vasselin, Herbert produced earlier wins over 20th seed Gastao Elias and Marco Chiudinelli. Herbert is currently ranked 167th in the world and last year as a qualifier he reached the final of the Winston-Salem Open, losing to Kevin Anderson.
There was double joy for Japanese tennis. 12th seed Yuichi Sugita had to endure three three-set matches to move into the main draw in Melbourne. After wins over Ante Pavic and Yannick Martens, the Sugita outlasted American 32nd seed Dennis Novikov (6-4,4-6,6-3). Meanwhile Tatsuma Ito struggled past Spain’s Adrian Menendez-Maceiras. He clinched the victory after breaking in the final game of the match to win 6-4,1-6,6-4 after an hour and 44 minutes. The double Japanese victory means that there will five Japanese players in the main draw of the Australian Open for the first time in 41 years.
Veteran Frenchman Stephane Robert reached his third consecutive main draw in Melbourne after recovering from a set to defeat Karen Khachanov 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. Earlier on in the tournament the 35-year-old produced a straight sets win over 28th seed Igor Sijsling. One of the best moments in Robert’s career occurred at the 2014 Australian Open when he reached the fourth round as a lucky loser.
Argentina’s Marco Trungelliti was handed a placed in the main draw after his opponent Bai Yan, retired. The Argentinian was leading 6-4,6-7(8), 3-0, before Yan called it quits. Incredibly, it is the 11th time that Yan has retired from a singles match within the past 12 months. The 25-year-old Argentinian will now play in his first ever Grand Slam main draw. Trungelliti has won seven Futures titles in his career and reached the final of the Bangkok challenger last September.
Completing the qualifiers in another Argentine, Renzo Olivo. Olivo kicked-off his qualifying bid with a first round win over Swedish 25th seed Elias Ymer. The 23-year-old then edged out Benjamin Mitchell in the second round to set up a showdown with Vincent Millot. Millot upset Australian 16th seed John-Patrick Smith in his second round match. The Frenchman was no match for Olivo, who overcame some late resistance to win 6-2, 6-4.
2016 Australian Open Women’s Preview Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
The first grand slam of the 2016 is upon us and it promises to be a cracker. The tour is wide open with potential winners, so let’s get down to it.
The Australian Open has been staged in seven cities throughout Australia and New Zealand since its launch in 1905. It moved to its present home named Melbourne Park in 1988, with the tournament also switching from a grass to hardcourt surface.
Defending champion Serena Williams has the Open Era record with six singles titles. Just two behind her with four victories are Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf and Monica Seles.
The Australian Open
Tier: Grand Slam
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Prize money: $ 40,000,000
Date: January 18th- January 31st
Top eight seeds (Ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Simona Halep (2)
3. Garbine Muguruza (3)
4. Agnieszka Radwanska (4)
5. Maria Sharapova (5)
6. Petra Kvitova (6)
7. Angelique Kerber (7)
8. Venus Williams (10)
Lucie Safarova (injury) and Flavia Pennetta (retired) are absent from the tournament.
First round matches to watch
Camila Giorgi, Fed Cup
(1) Serena Williams vs Camila Giorgi
The world number one begins her title defence with a tough round one clash with the unpredictable yet dangerous Giorgi.
There are few players that can match Serena’s power on the court, Giorgi is one of them. The Italian is a big hitter and on her day can blast almost anyone off the court. The top seed is still a massive favourite for this match and the tournament as a whole, but if Giorgi turns up she could catch Serena off guard.
The American has not had much in terms of warm up for the first grand slam of the year, and one thing is for sure- she will not get much rhythm from the Italian.
(28) Kristina Mladenovic vs Dominika Cibulkova
There are not many potential upset matches in the opening round when it concerns the top seeds, but there is a nice match to look out for involving Mladenovic and Cibulkova.
The talented Frenchwoman is 0/2 in 2016 after back to back defeats to compatriots- she will be happy to see a Slovakian on the other side of the net. Cibulkova on the other hand has started the season well and is a former finalist at the Australian Open.
The Slovakian leads 5-0 in the head to head which is rather surprising. This one should be a lot closer than their previous meetings and It is possible that the seeded player could make an early exit.
(14) Belinda Bencic vs Alison Riske
Alison Riske (Photo: @Tennis_Shots)
60 places separate these two so if the American was to win this match it would be considered quite an upset.
In the WTA, anything is possible. Bencic is a much improved player since their last and only meeting in 2014 where Riske won in straight sets. However the Swiss lady has not looked at he best in the warm up events and there is a lingering chance of an upset.
That would require the world number 74 to bring her best tennis to the court, but big matches can often bring out the best in a lot of players. Bencic is the likely winner but it could be a close match.#
(17) Sara Errani vs Margarita Gasparyan
Errani is a very consistent retriever and a former grand slam finalist, however her gamestyle lets you play. It will be a good chance for the young Gasparyan to show her talents even if she does end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
The Italian is not as versed on hard courts as she is on clay, but she is not a player you can ever sleep on. The Russian will have to be game if she is to win the match, but it is winnable for her and a chance to claim a good scalp and make a good run.
Draw Analysis
Serena’s Quarter:
The world number one has been dealt with a fairly tough draw in her path towards the title. Giorgi is not the type of player you want to play first that’s for sure. From there it get’s a little more predictable with Anna Schmiedlova the projected round three opponent for the world number one. Schmiedlova is a solid player, particularly on clay, but unless Serena has a nightmare then the Slovakian will likely be brushed aside. The fourth round may see her face good friend Caroline Wozniacki. The draw to the round of 16 has been kind to the Dane and she will be majorly disappointed if she does not make it this far. Given the 10-1 head to head it is difficult to see Serena not making it through this match and through this section. Unless he has a real off day somewhere there is not a player after round one that could realistically match the power of the top seed.
It is not a familiar sight seeing Sharapova next to the number five, but Radwanska’s good form has knocked the Russian from the fourth seeding. Her reward?- Drawn in a quarter with the woman she has not beaten in over a decade. Her path to the potential clash with Serena is not an easy one either. Nao Hibino should be a comfortable opener, as should round two, but the third round potentially against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a tricky one. It does not get any easier with the possibility of Bencic waiting in round four which could be a classic match. But Riske followed by possibly Heather Watson then Svetlana Kuznetsova is not exactly a good draw either. Bencic vs Sharapova is the safe bet and the Russian making it to the quarter finals is safer still, but there are banana skins.
If Radwanska had not made the Shenzhen open final then she would have been drawn in Serena’s quarter. With her victory in the Chinese event, the Pole has taken the fourth seed and has been drawn with a potentially injured Kvitova instead. Radwanska will play America’s Christina McHale in the opening round- not the easiest of draws but one she will be expected to win. That could lead to quite the round two clash against a rejuvenated Eugenie Bouchard who is looking more like her 2014 self in the early parts of the season. Sam Stosur is projected in round three but the Aussie has had issues playing in front of a home crowd. The round of 16 will likely feature either Roberta Vinci or an in form Sloane Stephens. Either one is a huge test for whoever they play and could upset the number four seed. Vinci of course is now famous for denying Serena a calendar year grand slam at the US Open.
Kvitova was forced to withdraw early in Shenzhen, then did not compete at all in her Sydney title defence. It leaves you wondering whether she is 100% ready for the Australian Open. The Czech is unpreditable at the best of times and if bad Petra shows up then she could be heading for an early exit. Round two is where the first test will likely come against Australia’s Daria Gavrilova. She is a rising talent in the WTA and will be pumped up to play in front of the home crowd. She is coming off victory with Nick Kyrgios at the Homan Cup. Round three will not get any easier with either Mladenovic or Cibulkova likely opponents. Carla Suarez Navarro might be the biggest beneficiary if Kvitova is not up to standard. The Spaniard has a fairly comfortable ride to the third round where she will face Andrea Petkovic. She could be the one that emerges to face Radwanska in the quarter finals.
After an impressive 2015 there is a lot of hype and expectation surrounding Muguruza, and this is a tournament you would expect her to do well in. She has had good results in Melbourne before and the courts seem to fit her game nicely. The opening two rounds seem fairly simple for the third seed, but it is in the round of 32 where things could get messy. Caroline Garcia is the projected seed, the talent Frenchwoman is unpredictable but she has a big game and matches up well with the Spaniard. But if she manages to get past the 32nd seed then she will meet a resurgent Victoria Azarenka who is fresh off winning the Brisbane title. This colossal round four match will could decide the finalist so keep an eye out for this one. The former two time champion must first make her way through a difficult third round against Elina Svitolina, but the Belarusian should match up well with the 20 year old.
Kerber could not translate her Premier level success into the grand slams in 2015, but her draw to the quarter finals here looks fairly promising. Barring a huge upset, Irina Begu will be her toughest challenge en route to round four where she projected to face Timea Bacsinszky. The Swiss however has not made the best of starts to the year and could be upset potential in the early rounds. Jelena Jankovic therefore might be the favourite to meet the German in the round of 16. With Muguruza or Azarenka likely for the quarter finals however, it is hard seeing either player progressing any further than the last eight.
Halep is still searching for her first grand slam title and she will feel that 2016 might just be her year. Her grand slam season opens pretty nicely with a qualifier then either Alize Cornet or Bojana Jovanovski. The third round against Lesia Tsurenko could be tricky but it is a match that Halep should win fairly comfortably. The fourth round is where things get interesting with Madison Keys or Ana Ivanovic likely to await the Romanian. Keys has a potential banana skin round two against Tsvetana Pironkova or Yaroslava Shvedova- both can be dangerous on their day. Ivanovic’s path to the third round is a little easier but nothing she should take for granted. Jarmila Wolfe could pose a test in front of her home crowd in round two. Halep is likely to make it out of this section but Keys and Ivanovic are more than capable of causing an upset.
Venus Williams’ resurgence was one of the many stories that gripped us in 2015. The 35 looks like a genuine contender for the big events again, even if she did lose her only match of the season thus far. Joanna Konta was another player who made headlines in 2015 but has made a poor start to 2016. The Brit is capable of an upset if she can perform to her summer 2015 level, but Venus likely prevails. In fact it is a fairly packed section with the ever dangerous Sabine Lisicki projected for round three. The German however is never a safe bet and could be dumped out early be Petra Cetkovska, Bethanie Mattek-Sands or Denisa Allertova. Karolina Pliskova was another name who played well but failed to make a deep run at a grand slam in 2015. However this could be the time she can finally make in roads at grand slam level. The Czech should make it to Ekaterina Makarova in round three at the very least. The winner likely plays Venus in round four- what a match that could be. Halep is the favourite to make it out of this quarter, but as you see there are many players who could trip her up.
If Azarenka is truly back, then she will likely make the final here. The Belarusian love these courts as evident with her two victories here. Serena will win the other semi final.
Tennis Atlantic 