2016 Rio Open

Unseeded Kyrgios, Cuevas, and Querrey Capture ATP Titles
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Marseille

Nick Kyrgios became one of the youngest ATP champions of all-time when he captured the title in Marseille at the age of 20. Kyrgios dominated a tough field and didn’t drop a set, as he concluded his tournament triumph with a 6-2 7-6(3) victory over Marin Cilic.

Kyrgios’s serve and return of serve were both clicking this week as he defeated Vasek Pospisil and Teymuraz Gabashvili 4 and 4, Richard Gasquet 6-0 6-4 and the powerful Tomas Berdych 6-4 6-2. Gasquet was still nursing a back injury, but nobody could stop NK from rising this week. The young Aussie has already demonstrated his ability to win big matches and do well in slams, but his ranking should rapidly improve if he can win more ATP titles and compete on a weekly basis. Kyrgios lost his only previous ATP final last year.

Cilic reached his first ATP final of the season as he slipped past Robin Haase in three sets, Andrey Kuznetsov in straights, and Benoit Paire in a close three setter. Paire upset Stan Wawrinka in the previous round. The former Grand Slam winner is showing signs of improvement, but still hasn’t reached the same level that he was once at and remains outside the top 10.

Mate Pavic and Michael Venus combined to win their third ATP doubles title of the season over Colin Fleming and Jonathan Erlich in a routine doubles final.

ATP Rio

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Pablo Cuevas won his fourth career ATP title, and his first ever at the 500 level in a tight three setter over surprise first-time ATP finalist Guido Pella 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4. The Rio tournament was plagued by both rain and upsets this week, but the dirtballer Cuevas was a true warrior and had the week of his life in Rio.

Cuevas dominated Facundo Bagnis in his opening match, then fended off a challenge from upstart wild card Thiago Monteiro, and beat Federico Delbonis in straights. He faced Rafael Nadal in the semis and stunned the king of clay in three sets, with two tiebreaks. The match against Nadal was his first ever top 10 win on clay, as Nadal continues to struggle and decline. Nadal wasn’t the only big name to lose in Rio this week, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was stunned by the ATP débutante Monteiro. The Brazilian has a bright future ahead.

Pella was down match point in round 1 against a cramping John Isner, but won a third set tiebreak to survive and advance. The Argentine built on that big win and beat Santiago Giraldo and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, the latter in three sets, to reach the semis. Dominic Thiem was playing and doubles and singles this week and suffered from exhaustion as he was rolled over by Pella in a semifinal upset.

Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah won the doubles title for the second week in a row on the Golden Swing. The Colombian duo defeated David Marrero and Pablo Carreno Busta.

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ATP Delray Beach

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Sam Querrey won his eighth career ATP title and his first in four years in Delray Beach. The American has had his best success on home soil and his latest triumph came over countryman Rajeev Ram 6-4 7-6(6). Ram was playing in his third career ATP final, as the journeyman has made surprising success with his serve and volley game.

Querrey, who was coming off the semis in Memphis, has been in great form as he recovered from dropping the first set to Thiemo de Bakker to win in three sets, going on to defeat Austin Krajicek, Tim Smyczek in a tight three sets, and surprise semifinalist Juan Martin Del Potro in a close two sets.

Del Potro lacks a solid backhand, but his trademark forehand was looking sharp in his first ATP comeback tournament. The Argentine successfully won three ATP matches this week, and his fans can hope for more going forward. His serve also seems improved.

The 31 year old Ram took advantage of Bernard Tomic’s tank, and won three setters over Illya Marchenko and Benjamin Becker before shocking Grigor Dimitrov in the semis. Ram didn’t play out of the ordinary, but Dimitrov was reckless and erratic.

Oliver Marach and Fabrice Martin survived being down match point six times to defeat the legendary Bryan brothers for the Delray Beach doubles title.

Steen Kirby (Marseille)

2016 ATP Rio Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The South American golden clay court swing continues on with a 500 level stop in Rio, Brazil, the highlight tournament of this swing.

Rio Open Presented by Claro
ATP World Tour 500
February 15-21, 2016
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $1,333,085

Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (5)
2: David Ferrer (6)
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
4: John Isner (12)

Three top 10 players in Rio in the third year of this tournament.

First round matchups to watch:

(8)Thomaz Bellucci vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Dolgopolov has two previous hard court wins over Bellucci, and the Brazilian will look to bite him back on home clay. Bellucci was a finalist on clay in Quito, and he should be the favorite, though the Ukrainian is a talented shotmaker and a previous finalist (2014).

(6)Jack Sock vs. Federico Delbonis

Jack Sock oped to play South American clay, like John Isner, this season, rather than early North American hard courts, and he’ll open with a tough match against Federico Delbonis. Sock has an ATP final already this season while Delbonis upset Fabio Fognini in Buenos Aires last week. Delbonis is a challenging clay court opponent, but Sock is good enough on the surface to advance.

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Top Half:

Rafael Nadal, a former champion, suffered another surprising loss, this time in Buenos Aires to Dominic Thiem in the semifinals. Nadal remains a great clay court player, but he’s losing his elite status and shine slowly but surely. His opening match will be against Pablo Carreno Busta, a Quito quarterfinalist, and then he’s likely to face Buenos Aires finalist Nicolas Almagro in round 2. Almagro posted his best result in months in Argentina, and opens with Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, a journeyman. Nadal should advance into the quarters given Almagro’s fatigue, though he has beaten Rafa on clay before.

Bellucci/Dolgopolov will face Inigo Cervantes or qualifier Taro Daniel in round 2. Daniel is likely to win his opening match, but Bellucci is the quarterfinal favorite. Nadal is 5-0 against Bellucci an is the favorite to reach the semifinals unless his struggles continue.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lost in the Buenos Aires quarters, and will face wild card Thiago Montero, a recent challenger semifinalist, in his first match. Fellow BA quarterfinalist Pablo Cuevas faces qualifier Facundo Bagnis. Cuevas has a clay court h2h win over Tsonga, and could earn another one, but Tsonga is the quarterfinal favorite. Sock/Delbonis will face Marco Cecchinato or Paolo Lorenzi in round 2. Lorenzi is in the form of his career, and is 9-3 in his last 12 matches. I have him upsetting Sock to reach the quarterfinals and face off with Tsonga, who he could also defeat as a dark horse.

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Bottom Half:

Buenos Aires semifinalist, and defending champion David Ferrer opens with a struggling Nicolas Jarry. BA quarterfinalist Dusan Lajovic, or Quito semifinalist Albert Ramos await him in round 2. Ferrer should be able to defeat Ramos and reach the quarters given his 5-0 h2h.

BA champion Dominic Thiem is on a hot streak, and he’ll open with Pablo Andujar. Andujar has lost four straight matches, and Thiem is likely to go up against Diego Schwartzman in round 2. Schwartzman opens with Joao Souza. Even with the fatigue factor, Thiem is a favorite to reach the quarterfinals. Ferrer should have an edge against Thiem at that stage given that fatigue factor. Both Ferrer and Thiem are in great form to start the season.

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John Isner lost his opening clay court match of the season, but he’s a favorite against a struggling Guido Pella in round 1. Santiago Giraldo or Gastao Elias will be his round 2 opponent, Elias has been rising as of late, but Isner has a great shot at the quarterfinals. Both Fabio Fognini and his round 1 opponent Aljaz Bedene are on losing streaks, Fognini leads the h2h 5-0 though, and either Juan Monaco, or qualifier Daniel Gimeno-Traver await in round 2, Monaco won his first back from injury in Buenos Aires. Fognini vs. Isner would be an interesting quarterfinal and it’s a tough pick between them. On clay Fognini is probably a slight favorite.

Dark Horse: Paolo Lorenzi

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the top seed most likely to lose early, and Lorenzi could benefit. His strong recent play on clay gives him an upset shot against Sock, and likewise against Tsonga/Cuevas. Another ATP semifinal would further extend the best few weeks of the Italian veteran’s ATP career.

Predictions

Semis
Nadal d. Tsonga
Ferrer d. Fognini

Ferrer is 9-0 in the h2h against Fognini, Nadal lost to Tsonga last year on hard courts, but he’s 2-0 on clay in the h2h, and 8-4 overall. It’s hard to predict Nadal these days, but he’s still the favorite to capture the title.