2017 ATP Acapulco

Querrey Stuns Nadal for Acapulco Title, Murray Strengthens Hold on World #1
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Acapulco

29 year old Sam Querrey won the biggest title of his career and returned to the ATP top 30 after a stunning run in the Acapulco 500 level tour stop. Querrey made it nine career ATP titles with a masterful serving performance against Rafael Nadal, prevailing 6-3 7-6 in upset fashion over the fan-favorite Spaniard. Nadal struggled on return and in the second set tiebreak it was Querrey who was clutch.

Now 10-4 on the season, Querrey dropped sets against Kyle Edmund and fellow big server Nick Kyrgios on the week, while defeating top 15 players David Goffin and Dominic Thiem in straight sets to reach the final. His serve was strong all week, and perhaps the best match of the tournament was a showdown against Kyrgios where he was able to power past the young gun.

Kyrgios upset Novak Djokovic earlier in the week, after Djokovic had survived Juan Martin Del Potro’s challenge. Djokovic’s loss hurts his bid to reclaim the world #1 ranking anytime soon.

Nadal moved to 12-3 on the season after posting routine victories over Mischa Zverev, Palo Lorenzi, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Marin Cilic. Despite suffering a shocking defeat, Nadal still has a shot to equal his number of hard court wins last season (18), before the clay court season begins. Rafa has made big strides in 2017 and seems healthier, fitter, and more focused compared to recent years.

Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares defeated John Isner and Feliciano Lopez to take home the doubles trophy.

ATP Dubai

Andy Murray claimed his first title of the season and extended his hold on the world #1 ranking with a routine 6-3 6-2 victory against Fernando Verdasco in Dubai. Murray was unthreatened throughout the week, except for two sets of a thrilling contest with Philipp Kohlschreiber. Murray defeated Malek Jaziri, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Lucas Pouille with ease over the course of the week.

Kohlschreiber had more than a half dozen match points in a second set tiebreak that finished 20-18 in favor of Murray. The Brit conceded plenty of chances to the German veteran, but he as unable to take them. Kohlschreiber has always been talented, but hasn’t risen as high as he probably should have in his career because of losses like the one he suffered against Murray.

With two critical Masters 1000 tournaments coming up, Murray is looking to be in solid form compared to his main rivals at the top of the men’s game. AO champ Roger Federer was stunned in a third set tiebreak against Evgeny Donskoy in Dubai. Donskoy was far behind the Swiss legend, but he didn’t give up, and Federer outright choked in uncharacteristic fashion.

Fernando Verdasco, who made the semis in Doha, has really enjoyed playing in the Middle East this year. The 33 year old made the final with wins against Andreas Seppi, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gael Monfils, and Robin Haase. His wins against Haase and RBA came in three sets. It was the first hard court final in six years for Verdasco.

Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau defeated Rohan Bopanna and Marcin Matkowski in a doubles final that featured two teams of full-time doubles specialists.

ATP Sao Paulo

Pablo Cuevas awoke in Sao Paulo, snapping a four match losing streak dating back to January, and going to win the title in the Brazilian destination for a third straight time. The renewed 31 year old won the final stop of the Golden Swing in a Monday final 6-7 6-4 6-4 over Albert Ramos, after rain delayed the match on Sunday.

Cuevas posted victories over Facundo Bagnis, Diego Sebastian Schwarztman, and Pablo Carreno Busta as well, with his win over DSS revenge for a loss to him earlier in the season, and a very close three setter. Cuevas now has six career ATP titles, all of them on clay where he plays his best tennis by far.

Ramos fell to 1-3 in career ATP titles, but made his fourth title by defeating Gastao Elias, Guido Pella, and Joao Sousa, needing three sets against both Pella and Sousa. The Spaniard’s spin remains a damaging weapon on clay courts, and he’s now 11-7 on the season after making the Quarterfinals or better of every Golden Swing clay court stop. He’s also one of the handful of players to take part in all four Golden Swing tournaments.

Home joy was felt for Rogerio Dutra Silva and his fellow Brazilian Andre Sa as they defeated Marcus Daniell and Marcelo Demoliner in the doubles final.

2017 ATP Acapulco Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The top ATP Tour event this week is down in Mexico, as some of the tour’s best will battle it out at this 500 level tournament.

Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 27-March 4, 2017
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $1,491,310

*denotes joint ATP/WTA event

Top 4 seeds (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (2)
2: Rafael Nadal (6)
3: Marin Cilic (8)
4: Dominic Thiem (9)

First round matches to watch:

Bernard Tomic vs. Donald Young

Young leads the h2h 2-1 and has made two straight semifinals in back to back weeks. Tomic has lost three straight matches and badly needs to bounce back down in Mexico. The Aussie has struggled with his fitness this year, and despite the fatigue factor, I have Young slipping past Tomic.

(4)Dominic Thiem vs. Gilles Simon

Thiem has won his last three matches against Simon, including one recently in Rotterdam. The Austrian is the defending champion and has won seven of his last eight matches. Simon is steady and will put a lot of balls back in play, but unless fatigue dooms Thiem, he should win this match.

(8)John Isner vs. Steve Johnson

Johnson has made two straight quarterfinals and has won his last two meetings against Isner. The 31 year old American big server has struggled this season and badly needs to find form. Despite being favored, I have Isner dropping this opening round match to Johnson.

(3)Marin Cilic vs. (WC)Alexandr Dolgopolov

These players have split h2h meetings, and Dolgopolov is coming off a seven match win streak. Cilic has struggled this year, but reached the quarterfinals in Rotterdam, and should be fitter than Dolgopolov. Despite his talented shotmaking, Dolgopolov should fall short against Cilic’s power.

(2)Rafael Nadal vs. Mischa Zverev

Nadal pummeled Zverev in Brisbane and is a heavy favorite in this one. The German has struggled since a run in Australia, but Nadal hasn’t played since then, and could be rusty. It will be interesting to see whether Zverev’s serve and volley bothers Rafa at all.

Top Half:

Novak Djokovic will open his title bid against Martin Klizan, big man Juan Martin Del Potro looms in round 2, presuming JMDP puts away qualifier Frances Tiafoe. This is a tough section for Djokovic, he should still defeat Del Potro, but then Marseille semifinalist Nick Kyrgios should await him in the quarters. Kyrgios opens with a struggling Dudi Sela, then the Young/Tomic winner. Kyrgios and Del Po both have the weapons to beat Novak, but I still can’t go against the multiple slam winner and world #2 to reach the semifinals.

David Goffin looks set to face Dominic Thiem in the the quarters. Goffin opens with a struggling Stephane Robert, his round 2 opponent is a Delray quarterfinalist, either Sam Querrey or Kyle Edmund. Goffin has been in great form, reaching consecutive ATP finals recently, he should beat Thiem after Thiem defeats Simon and Fritz/Mannarino.

Bottom Half:

The winner of Nadal/Zverev will face Rendy Lu/Paolo Lorenzi next, with Jack Sock the most likely quarterfinal opponent. Sock faces qualifier Yoshihito Nishioka, with either Feliciano Lopez or Jordan Thompson to follow. Given both Lopez and Thompson are struggling, the Delray champion Sock should be prepared for a battle with Nadal. Two of the best forehands in men’s tennis will go head-to-head, with Nadal likely to come out on top given his experience, and a better all-around game.

The winner of Johnson/Isner will face an American, either Ernesto Escobedo, or qualifier Stefan Kozlov. I have Johnson opposite Cilic in the quarters, after Dolgopolov, Cilic should defeat his countryman Borna Coric, who opens with local wild card Lucas Gomez.

Dark Horse: Juan Martin Del Potro

If Del Potro can find his range against Novak Djokovic, he could pull off a big upset, then defeat Nick Kyrgios to reach the semifinals. Del Potro has the power and ability, but he’s still likely too rusty to pull off that feat.

Predictions

Semis
Djokovic d. Goffin
Nadal d. Cilic

Djokovic leads Goffin 5-0 in the h2h, while Nadal leads Cilic 3-1, the top two players at this tournament should meet in the final.