2017 ATP Sao Paulo

Querrey Stuns Nadal for Acapulco Title, Murray Strengthens Hold on World #1
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Acapulco

29 year old Sam Querrey won the biggest title of his career and returned to the ATP top 30 after a stunning run in the Acapulco 500 level tour stop. Querrey made it nine career ATP titles with a masterful serving performance against Rafael Nadal, prevailing 6-3 7-6 in upset fashion over the fan-favorite Spaniard. Nadal struggled on return and in the second set tiebreak it was Querrey who was clutch.

Now 10-4 on the season, Querrey dropped sets against Kyle Edmund and fellow big server Nick Kyrgios on the week, while defeating top 15 players David Goffin and Dominic Thiem in straight sets to reach the final. His serve was strong all week, and perhaps the best match of the tournament was a showdown against Kyrgios where he was able to power past the young gun.

Kyrgios upset Novak Djokovic earlier in the week, after Djokovic had survived Juan Martin Del Potro’s challenge. Djokovic’s loss hurts his bid to reclaim the world #1 ranking anytime soon.

Nadal moved to 12-3 on the season after posting routine victories over Mischa Zverev, Palo Lorenzi, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Marin Cilic. Despite suffering a shocking defeat, Nadal still has a shot to equal his number of hard court wins last season (18), before the clay court season begins. Rafa has made big strides in 2017 and seems healthier, fitter, and more focused compared to recent years.

Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares defeated John Isner and Feliciano Lopez to take home the doubles trophy.

ATP Dubai

Andy Murray claimed his first title of the season and extended his hold on the world #1 ranking with a routine 6-3 6-2 victory against Fernando Verdasco in Dubai. Murray was unthreatened throughout the week, except for two sets of a thrilling contest with Philipp Kohlschreiber. Murray defeated Malek Jaziri, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Lucas Pouille with ease over the course of the week.

Kohlschreiber had more than a half dozen match points in a second set tiebreak that finished 20-18 in favor of Murray. The Brit conceded plenty of chances to the German veteran, but he as unable to take them. Kohlschreiber has always been talented, but hasn’t risen as high as he probably should have in his career because of losses like the one he suffered against Murray.

With two critical Masters 1000 tournaments coming up, Murray is looking to be in solid form compared to his main rivals at the top of the men’s game. AO champ Roger Federer was stunned in a third set tiebreak against Evgeny Donskoy in Dubai. Donskoy was far behind the Swiss legend, but he didn’t give up, and Federer outright choked in uncharacteristic fashion.

Fernando Verdasco, who made the semis in Doha, has really enjoyed playing in the Middle East this year. The 33 year old made the final with wins against Andreas Seppi, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gael Monfils, and Robin Haase. His wins against Haase and RBA came in three sets. It was the first hard court final in six years for Verdasco.

Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau defeated Rohan Bopanna and Marcin Matkowski in a doubles final that featured two teams of full-time doubles specialists.

ATP Sao Paulo

Pablo Cuevas awoke in Sao Paulo, snapping a four match losing streak dating back to January, and going to win the title in the Brazilian destination for a third straight time. The renewed 31 year old won the final stop of the Golden Swing in a Monday final 6-7 6-4 6-4 over Albert Ramos, after rain delayed the match on Sunday.

Cuevas posted victories over Facundo Bagnis, Diego Sebastian Schwarztman, and Pablo Carreno Busta as well, with his win over DSS revenge for a loss to him earlier in the season, and a very close three setter. Cuevas now has six career ATP titles, all of them on clay where he plays his best tennis by far.

Ramos fell to 1-3 in career ATP titles, but made his fourth title by defeating Gastao Elias, Guido Pella, and Joao Sousa, needing three sets against both Pella and Sousa. The Spaniard’s spin remains a damaging weapon on clay courts, and he’s now 11-7 on the season after making the Quarterfinals or better of every Golden Swing clay court stop. He’s also one of the handful of players to take part in all four Golden Swing tournaments.

Home joy was felt for Rogerio Dutra Silva and his fellow Brazilian Andre Sa as they defeated Marcus Daniell and Marcelo Demoliner in the doubles final.

2017 ATP Sao Paulo Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The ATP Golden Swing wraps up this week with a 250 stop in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the country’s second ATP World Tour stop.

Brasil Open
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 27-March 5, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $455,565

Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Pablo Carreno Busta (24)
2: Albert Ramos (25)
3: Pablo Cuevas (30)
4: Joao Sousa (39)

A lack of top 20 players will dampen enthusiasm for the Sao Paulo clay court tournament.

First round matches to watch:

Gerald Melzer vs. Victor Estrella

Melzer isn’t in bad form, but Estrella is a difficult opponent. The veteran won Quito and badly needs to finish the Golden Swing with momentum. This is a battle of steady dirtballers that is likely to go three sets.

(6)Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs. Thomaz Bellucci

Schwartzman reached the semis in Rio, but trails Bellucci in the h2h, and the Brazilian is playing at home. The big hitting Bellucci could overpower DSS, but Schwartzman should be able to find his focus and reach the second round.

Top Half:

Rio finalist Pablo Carreno Busta is 6-2 on clay in 2017 and should ease past either a struggling Horacio Zeballos or Joao Souza to reach the quarterfinals. Italy’s Fabio Fognini should beat his countryman, qualifier Marco Cecchinato, while Italian Alessandro Giannessi should defeat Brazil’s Rogerio Dutra Silva to reach round 2. Fognini has a great opportunity to upset Carreno Busta to reach the semifinals, however PCB has a 3-0 h2h advantage, making him the favorite to reach the semis.

Pablo Cuevas has won two straight titles in Sao Paulo, he’ll go for a third straight with an opening match against Facundo Bagnis or Dusan Lajovic. The winner of Melzer/Estrella has a shot at the quarterfinals, but the Bellucci/Schwartzman winner should be the one in the quarters opposite Cuevas. Cuevas has been struggling, and DSS has a 3-1 h2h edge, Schwartzman should reach the semifinals from this section, ending Cuevas title bid.

Bottom Half:

7-3 on clay in 2017, Albert Ramos is in good form and should defeat Gastao Elias/Orlando Luz, and then face Thiago Monteiro in the quarterfinals. Monteiro has made two straight quarterfinals, and is playing at home in Brazil. He’ll open against Carlos Berlocq, a semifinalist in Buenos Aires. Monteiro’s round 2 opponent will be Guido Pella or qualifier Guilherme Clezar. Both players are struggling, as are Elias and Luz. Ramos will be the favorite over Monteiro and has a great shot at the title.

Federico Delbonis should defeat qualifier Jozef Kovalik, then face Rio semifinalist Casper Ruud. The young Ruud opens with fellow teenager Akira Santillan, despite his possible fatigue he should win that clay court match, then fall to Delbonis. Joao Sousa should defeat the winner of Inigo Cervantes/Renzo Olivo to reach the quarters as well. Sousa and Delbonis have split meetings, I give Sousa a slight edge to reach the semis.

Dark Horse: Thiago Monteiro

Embed from Getty Images

Brazil’s Monteiro has a great shot at winning a title on home soil. He’s posted solid results on clay this year, and has a reasonable draw, with Ramos and Sousa/Delbonis in his path to the final. Look for this young gun to make a run this week.

Predictions:

Semis
Carreno Busta d. Schwartzman
Ramos d. Sousa

PCB is in better form than Schwartzman, Ramos has a slight h2h edge over Sousa despite Sousa’s h2h win this season in Auckland. On clay Ramos is the favorite.