2017 Estoril Open

Zverev Wins Emotional First Title in Germany, Cilic Finds Form in Istanbul
Steen Kirby and Manuel Traquete, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Munich

Alexander Zverev won his third career ATP title and his first in his home country of Germany, an emotional moment for the 20 year old who put his skills on display and thumped Guido Pella 6-4 6-3 in the final, dropping a set in just one of his four matches at the BMW Open this week. Zverev, one of the tournament favorites, beat Jeremy Chardy and Roberto Bautista Agut in a pair of close sets, and in the quarterfinals he needed three sets and a tiebreak to defeat countryman J.L. Struff. Zverev has had a great season thus far and could be challenging for the top 10 soon.

Pella, a 26 year old now 0-2 in ATP finals, is a clay specialist and came through qualifying defeating Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Fabio Fognini, Horacio Zeballos, and Hyeon Chung to reach the final. Zeballos and Chung were three setters, as Chung came up just short of making it an all ATP next-gen final after upsetting Gael Monfils earlier in the tournament. Zeballos couldn’t outmuscle his countryman on clay.

Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah teamed up for more success on clay beating Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin in the doubles final.

ATP Istanbul

After struggling to start the year out, Marin Cilic moved to 6-1 on clay this year and helped protect his top 10 ranking with a 7-6 6-3 victory over Milos Raonic, who also found renewed form in Istanbul this week. Cilic now has 17 career titles and hasn’t dropped a set in his six wins on clay this season. In Istanbul he defeated Damir Dzumhur, Steve Darcis, and Diego Schwartzman in relatively easy fashion.

Raonic is 14-3 this year and reached his second final of the season after beating Aljaz Bedene, Bernard Tomic and Viktor Troicki, against Bedene he needed a third set tiebreak to prevail, but his level of tennis improved as the week went on, and he could serve as dark horse at Roland Garros.

Czech’s Roman Jebavy and Jiri Vesely won via a double bagel in the doubles final over Turkey’s Tuna Altuna and Italian Alessandro Motti, the most lopsided doubles final on tour this year.

ATP Estoril

Pablo Carreno Busta claimed his first ATP title on clay and his third overall ATP title, moving to 15-5 on clay this season with a routine 6-2 7-6 victory over surprise finalist Gilles Muller. PCB got ahead early and was never threatened, although Muller served better in the second set, Carreno Busta just nipping the tiebreak after beating three Spaniards this week to reach the final. Muller moves to 4-2 on clay this year and will look to keep the momentum up for his part.

Ryan Harrison and Michael Venus upset Tommy Robredo and David Marrero in straight sets to take the doubles final after a surprising week on clay.

Carreno Busta and Muller Setup Unexpected Final in Estoril
Manuel Traquete, Tennis Atlantic

It’s been an exciting week at Portugal’s only ATP tournament in Estoril, as the final is now set between Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta and serve and volleying veteran Gilles Muller. Carreno Busta, a finalist last year, hasn’t dropped a set through three matches and has been in good form on European clay this year. He seems very comfortable on the main court and has played technically sound, skillful clay court tennis, as he slipped past Tommy Robredo, and then dismantled Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer, having beaten three formerly highly ranked Spanish clay court veterans this week. Ferrer winning a pair of easy matches over Portugese wild card Frederico Ferreira Silva and American Ryan Harrison to reach the semfinals and find his footing after a woeful year. PCB will thus be the expected favorite against Muller.

Muller, who much prefers fast surfaces, had a 4-10 clay court record since 2013 prior to playing in Estoril, but has now won three straight on his worst surface, defeating Pedro Sousa, Taro Daniel in three sets, and Kevin Anderson to reach the final. Muller maneuvered past Anderson’s big serve, which had allowed him to upset Richard Gasquet in the quarterfinals, and Daniel, who is usually at his best on clay, simply cracked under pressure in their quarterfinal match. Despite the fact he’s unlikely to defeat Carreno Busta, he should have plenty of confidence heading into the final, and if he serves well anything is possible, even on clay.

In doubles, fans have enjoyed the success of Spanish veterans Tommy Robredo and David Marrero, while Ryan Harrison and Michael Venus are out to surprise them in the final, having beaten the top seeds in the opening round of doubles action.

Stay tuned for the story of the finals tomorrow!

2017 ATP Estoril Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

There are three ATP 250 tournaments this week, the first of which takes place in Estoril, Portugal, as players continue to chase points on clay this Spring.

Millennium Estoril Open
ATP World Tour 250
Estoril, Portugal
May 1-7, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €482,060

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Pablo Carreno Busta (20)
2: Richard Gasquet (23)
3: Gilles Muller (28)
4: David Ferrer (32)

First round matches to watch:

(8)Benoit Paire vs. Nicolas Almagro

The defending champion Almagro could be knocked out in the first round in this one, as Benoit Paire is a relatively formidable opponent for a 250, and has a semifinal on clay already this year, while Almagro has struggled. This matchup is relatively even, but with Almagro yet to find his footing this season, I have Paire edging through.

(5)Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Yuichi Sugita

Del Potro should dominate this matchup, but Sugita qualified and reached the quarters in Barcelona winning matches against Robredo, Gasquet, and Carreno Busta. Normally a challenger journeyman, Sugita’s form looks to be at a career peak and Del Potro must be careful to avoid the upset. The Argentine hasn’t played a match on clay in a year.

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(6)Joao Sousa vs. (Q)Bjorn Fratangelo

Home hero Sousa has lost two straight while Fratangelo has qualified for consecutive ATP tournaments. Sousa should be favored at home, but unlike most Americans Fratangelo has real skill on clay and this is another upset watch match. I still have Sousa prevailing.

Top Half:

With Tommy Robredo having lost three straight, top seed Pablo Carreno Busta should defeat him or Evgeny Donskoy, then Paire or Gastao Elias (who opens with Malek Jaziri) to reach the semifinals. The Spaniard is the most solid clay courter in this tournament. The section below PCB features a host of strugglers, David Ferrer has lost five straight, while Denis Istomin has lost four straight. Local favorite Frederico Ferreira Silva is still a big underdog and thus Ferrer should fall to Del Potro in the quarterfinals, after Del Potro beats Sugita and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (who opens with Ryan Harrison, who has also lost five straight).

Bottom Half:

Despite being upset last week, Richard Gasquet is still a solid enough clay court veteran to be favored over Carlos Berlocq or qualifier Elias Ymer in round 2. Kyle Edmund is 2-2 in his last four matches and opens with red hot 23 year old qualifier Joao Domingues, who is making his ATP main draw debut at home. Edmund should fall to Kevin Anderson, after Anderson beats qualifier Sal Caruso, and then Gasquet over Anderson is the pick to reach the semifinals.

Despite losing three straight matches, Paul-Henri Mathieu is ripe to make the quarterfinals over journeyman Pedro Sousa, and Gilles Muller, who struggles on clay. I also have Taro Daniel finding form, defeating Renzo Olivo, and Joao Sousa to bust open this section, he should also defeat Mathieu to reach the semifinals.

Dark Horse: Taro Daniel

In a weak and difficult to predict draw, the section that has Joao Sousa along with Mathieu and Taro Daniel is the most open. I don’t trust Sousa in Estoril, and Daniel has demonstrated ability on clay in the past, he’s talented on the surface and has great potential. This week is his opportunity to show it and reach the semifinals or better.

Predictions

Semis
Carreno Busta d. Del Potro
Gasquet d. Daniel

Final
Carreno Busta d. Gasquet

I’ll back Carreno Busta to get a third career ATP title in this field, Del Potro is dangerous but has limited recent history on clay, and Gasquet’s form is not his best.

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