Roger Federer, Grigor Dimitrov, and David Goffin Headline 2018 ATP Rotterdam 500 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 edition of the ATP 500 indoor hard court stop in Rotterdam begins tomorrow and Roger Federer’s quest for the world #1 ranking is the biggest story of the tournament. Should Federer win the title, as he’s predicted to do, he’ll get a trophy and his #1 ranking back, defying all the doubters from years past. Grigor Dimitrov, and David Goffin are some of the players that could derail Federer this time. A big week of tennis awaits, here is your full preview with predictions.
Top Half:
Qualifier Ruben Bemelmans has the bad luck of drawing Federer first up, Karen Khachanov has a pair of quarterfinals to start the season, and should be Federer’s round 2 opposition. Khachanov will face Philipp Kohlschreiber in the opening round. Despite falling in the semifinals of Sofia, Stan Wawrinka should be two Dutch players early, Talloon Griekspoor and Robin Haase/Thiemo De Bakker to reach the quarters. Federer will be a heavy favorite in that quarterfinal between Swiss stars.
Success in Davis Cup should propel Alexander Zverev into the quarterfinals. Zverev faces veteran David Ferrer, then Joao Sousa/Andreas Seppi in the second round. Montpellier finalist Richard Gasquet will take on his countryman, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, with Daniil Medvedev/Gilles Muller to follow. I’ll give the young gun Medvedev the edge in round 1, but Gasquet falling to Zverev is my quarterfinal pick.
Grigor Dimitrov should be the favorite against Yuichi Sugita, and Filip Krajinovic/Felix Auger Aliassime in the early rounds. I’ll back Andrey Rublev to upset Montpellier champion Lucas Pouille, and then Damir Dzumhur/Marius Copil to reach the quarters opposite Dimitrov. Pouille and Copil should be tired, and both Dzumhur and Rublev are coming off solid quarterfinal runs in Montpellier. Dimitrov is my pick to reach the semis.
Tomas Berdych and David Goffin look to be on a collision course in the third section of the draw. Berdych opens with a struggling Mischa Zverev, Sofia quarterfinalist Viktor Troicki or Davis Cup hero J.L. Struff will follow, with Berdych favored against either. Goffin reached the semis in Montpellier and takes on Benoit Paire. Paire has played well to start 2018 but Goffin should be better, I’ll go with qualifier Martin Klizan to upset Feliciano Lopez before falling to Goffin in round 2. I’ll back Berdych over Goffin in a competitive quarterfinal.
This event seems tailored made for both Federer and Dimitrov to do well and face off in the final. Federer has #1 waiting for him at the end of the week and I doubt he’ll surrender this chance to take it.
2016 ATP Rotterdam Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first ATP 500 event of the season takes place indoors in Rotterdam as the winter European indoors swing rolls on.
ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
February 8-14, 2016
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: indoor hard
Prize Money: €1,597,155
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Richard Gasquet (10)
2: Marin Cilic (13)
3: Gilles Simon (15)
4: David Goffin (16)
The lack of top players is rare for Rotterdam, as this is one of the weaker tournament fields they have had in recent years.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Viktor Troicki vs. (Q)Andrey Kuznetsov
The Sofia finalist Troicki is 10-3 to start his season, and he’ll run into an in-form Kuznetsov in a tough opening match. Kuznetsov reached the second week of the Australian Open, and also had a quarterfinal in Doha, though his low ranking means he still had to qualify for this 500. Presuming he’s not too fatigued, Troicki is a favorite, but Kuznetsov winning would not be a surprise.
(4)David Goffin vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Goffin is a potential tournament champion, but he’s never beaten Baghdatis on hard courts (0-3), and Marcos comes off the quarterfinals in Montpellier, suggesting he’s in decent form. The Belgian #1 is playing his first tournament since reaching the second week of the Australian Open, and a win here would swell his confidence.
(6)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Joao Sousa
Sousa beat RBA in the Valencia indoors final last season, but RBA is in the form his life early in 2016, and looks to be tough to derail. Sousa is just 2-3 to start the season, and needs to get some wins going, while RBA has two ATP titles, and a second week in Melbourne on his resume. The Spaniard’s clean ball striking is a competitive match for Sousa’s game, and if rested suitably, the Spaniard likely prevails.
(5)Gael Monfils vs. (Q)Ernests Gulbis
Two talented but unpredictable players. Gulbis has sunk so low once again that he had to qualify, while Monfils lost in his opening Montpellier match. Monfils talent and skill set will likely overcome Gulbis power, but Gael could lay an egg in this one and let the Latvian earn a key ATP match win.
Vasek Pospisil vs. (WC)Alexander Zverev
Fresh off a fantastic run to the Montpellier semifinals, Zverev opens with the big serving Pospisil. Vasek is just 1-3 to start the year, while Zverev demonstrated a skillset beyond his years over his last few matches. Training and preparation could cause Zverev some headaches, but if he’s ready he’s the favorite.
Top seed and Montpellier champion Richard Gasquet appears to be in good form after a back injury. Gasquet was a somewhat surprising champion in his first tournament back on tour, and he has a draw that could see him make a good run in consecutive weeks on European indoors. Serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut, or Teymuraz Gabashvili will be his opponent after countryman Jeremy Chardy in round 1 (3-0 h2h). Troicki/Kuznetsov, or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Hyeon Chung await in the quarterfinals. Chung’s struggles to start the year aid GGL’s quest at the quarters, while Kuznetsov is a possible dark horse, and Troicki is somewhat of a wild card given his possible fatigue from Sofia.
A Gasquet vs. Troicki ATP titleist quarterfinal is a clear possibility. Troicki has a 2-1 hard court h2h over Garcia-Lopez, Gasquet vs. Troicki is split 2-2, with Gasquet a slight semifinals favorite.
Goffin/Baghdatis will most likely decide the quarter below, with Tommy Robredo vs. Martin Klizan the other option for quarterfinalist. Klizan comes off the semis in Sofia, but should be fatigued, while Robredo is looking to kickstart his season here. Goffin’s rise up the rankings, and improved all court game, should allow him to deal with Klizan’s power or Robredo’s spin.
RBA/Sousa decide Lukas Rosol vs. Jiri Vesely. Rosol’s form isn’t great, but Vesely has to win a match this season. RBA should ease past a potentially big bomber in Rosol. RBA has a career h2h of 2-0 vs. Goffin, but with fatigue likely to play a factor, a Gasquet vs. Goffin semifinal is the likely top half outcome, delighting local fans.
Bottom Half:
Marin Cilic should whip up on Denis Istomin. Istomin hasn’t won in 2016, and Cilic has a 6-1 h2h record against him. Gilles Muller should setup a matchup between big servers in round 2, unless Andreas Seppi shocks him. Muller reached the semis in Sofia, while Seppi is another player in need of a win. Cilic should outplay Muller.
#7 seed Benoit Paire, and tour veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber, likely decide the quarter above Cilic. Both one-handed backhanders. Paire opens with potentially tricky qualifier Ivan Dodig, while Kohlschreiber, a quarterfinalist in Sofia, should drub a rusty Julien Benneteau. Paire and Kohli have split meetings on hard courts 2-2, Kohlschreiber’s better recent results give him an edge. A Kohli vs. Cilic semi probably favors a motivated Cilic to power his way into the semis.
Monfils vs. Gulbis is also in this section, and the winner will face Borna Coric or Thiemo De Bakker. Coric has lost four straight since reaching the final in Chennai, and could be dealing with nerves or poor health, while De Bakker is playing at home after time abroad. Presuming Monfils avoids an implosion he is most likely to reach the quarterfinals.
Gilles Simon bookends the draw with Monfils, he was an early loser in Montpellier, and looks to be smarting for a better start to his season. Zverev vs. Simon is a veteran vs. young gun battle, but Zverev’s fatigue likely favors a Simon vs. Monfils quarterfinal. Simon’s 4-1 h2h record over Monfils gives him an edge to advance.
Both Kuznetsov, and Zverev, have struggled to play engaging, consistent tennis in their young careers, but a lot of what they have learned appears to finally be taking hold in match play. Kuznetsov’s proven himself already this season, while Zverev appears primed for a first ATP final soon. Zverev has to get past Simon, while Kuznetsov has seeds Troicki, Garcia-Lopez, and Gasquet.
Predictions
Semis
Goffin d. Gasquet
Simon d. Cilic
Gasquet and Goffin have never met, but form and fitness should favor Goffin, in what could be the most intriguing match this month, a possible battle for #10. Simon has a clear edge over Cilic in the head to head, and Marin has struggled to excel and close when it mattered this season.
Gilles Simon won their grass court meeting, and he could well walk home with the title. Goffin appears to have finished a cut above the top 15 at times this season though, and the undersized ball striker needs to take advantage of weaker ATP fields like this.
Stan Wawrinka survived some tough matches, including a three set final against Tomas Berdych, to win his first 500 level title in Rotterdam, which is also his first title at that tournament, and his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had to claw his way back from a set down against Berdych, as he was broken in the opening set, after failing to break Berdych in the previous game. Wawrinka broke Berdych once in the second set, and twice in the third set to win the match, as Berdych served under 40% first serves in set 2. Wawrinka was much stronger on serve throughout the match, which means Berdych had fewer chances to grab leads throughout the match. It went back and forth but the elite Wawrinka’s mental fortitude shown through to topple the defending champion. The final scoreline was 4-6 6-3 6-4.
This week Stan was the man, beating Jesse Huta Galung in 3 sets, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in 3 sets, and then he improved and beat Gilles Muller and MIlos Raonic, a pair of huge servers, in straight sets, with the win against Raonic coming in two tiebreaks. JHG and GGL gave it their best shots as underdogs, and Raonic was again impressive on serve, leaving Wawrinka often flailing on return, but his rallying wasn’t good enough to pull off a sustained victory, as Wawrinka survived trial by fire and never faded this tournament.
Berdych, who continues to make deep runs in tournaments so far this season, came close to defending his title, the Czech beat Tobias Kamke without dropping a set, an in form Andreas Seppi in 3 sets, and Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon in routine straight sets. It was a much easier path for Berdych to the final, but perhaps that didn’t prepare for an opponent of Wawrinka’s caliber, once again, under pressure the top Czech folded. Notably Simon upset Andy Murray in a total beatdown in the quarterfinals.
Dutchman Jean-Julien Rojer won on home soil with his partner Horia Tecau, they beat the lucky loser team of Jamie Murray and John Peers, who are off to a great start with their season, in the doubles final.
Kei Nishikori won his third consecutive title in Memphis, he was the top player throughout the week, though a host of competitors gave their best shot trying to defeat him. The last to try was Kevin Anderson who fell to Nishikori 6-4 6-4 in the final.
Nishikori scored wins over three Americans this week, all in three sets, he beat Ryan Harrison first, then Austin Krajicek, who won his second and third career ATP main draw matches in Memphis (over Mikhail Kukushkin and Ivo Karlovic) as a qualifier, and last but not least over Sam Querrey, who he defeated 7-5 in a third set tiebreak, after Querrey had upset his friend John Isner in the quarters in two tiebreaks.
Kevin Anderson also had to beat some US men to reach the final, the South African number one, who has had a good start to his season, beat Sam Groth in straights, then defeated Steve Johnson in straights, and surprise semifinalist Donald Young in 3 sets, coming back from a set down. It was Young’s best result in months as he upset Bernard Tomic in 3 sets in the quarterfinals.
Young also had great success, all be it without a trophy, in doubles this week, as and his partner Artem Sitak fell to Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez, who won their first doubles title as a pairing, both players are accomplished doubles specialists, and they formed a new partnership this season.
Sao Paulo was the place for unheralded players to have success on tour this week, Pablo Cuevas won his third ATP title over the past two seasons, as the Uruguayan will be at a new career high top 30 ranking when the new ATP rankings are released. Cuevas won a third set tiebreak in the final, defeating qualifier Luca Vanni 6-4 3-6 7-6 for the title.
Vanni was perhaps the biggest story on the ATP tour this week, he had never before won an ATP main draw match at the age of 29. The Italian will also be at a career high ranking, as he has never before been ranked in the top 140. Vanni took over Feliciano Lopez’s spot in the draw, as the Spaniard withdrew before the start of the tournament, he beat fellow qualifier Thiemo de Bakker in 3 sets, and then beat Dusan Lajovic in 2 tiebreaks, and Joao Souza in 3 sets to reach the final.
Cuevas beat Jiri Vesely in 3 sets, in a close match, then Facundo Bagnis via retirement, and Nicolas Almagro in 3 sets to reach the semis, at that stage he beat Santiago Giraldo in straights to reach the final, in a tournament full of grinding, close 2 and 3 set matches.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Paolo Lorenzi and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the doubles final, as doubles specialist pairings had success on the ATP World Tour this week.
