2017 ATP Chengdu and Shenzhen Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Asian swing kicks off this week with two ATP 250 level stops in China, here is your full previews with predictions.
ATP Chengdu
Dominic Thiem highlights the field in Chengdu, coming off the Laver Cup exo, Thiem should be tested by Borna Coric in round 2, and either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Viktor Troicki in the quarterfinals. Basilashvili reached the semis in Metz, and his promising form means he should push Thiem in the quarters, presuming the Austrian is fit, he should reach the semifinals.
Andrey Rublev and Metz champion Peter Gojowczyk look to be on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Rublev’s form should help him past Taiwan’s Rendy Lu, and either Gojowczyk or Leonardo Mayer in the quarters.
Japan’s Yuichi Sugita has had a career best year, Sugita should find his way past Albert Ramos or Dusan Lajovic in the quarterfinals and has a chance to be champion this week.
Kyle Edmund and Karen Khachanov could face off in the quarters, but the in-form Jan-Lennard Struff could disrupt the apple cart. Khachanov isn’t in the best of form, Struff should beat Denis Istomin and Khachanov. Edmund will line up opposite the struggling Bernard Tomic, Jared Donaldson or Stefanos Tsitsipas will follow. Donaldson is dangerous, but presuming Edmund is fit he should have the edge all the way into the semis.
Predictions
Semis Thiem d. Rublev
Edmund d. Sugita
Thiem and Edmund should be favorites to reach the final, with Thiem a likely champion in this competitive tournament.
Final Thiem d. Edmund
ATP Shenzhen
The Zverev brothers lead the Shenzhen field. Alexander, the top seed, opens with Davis Cup hero Steve Darcis or wild card Ze Zhang, Damir Dzumhur, the St. Petersburg champion, will face John Millman to open, I have Millman finding form and beating Lukas Lacko or Marcel Granollers after beating Dzumhur, and then falling to Zverev in the quarters.
Mischa Zverev opens with Dudi Sela or Matthew Ebden, Alexandr Dolgopolov should overcome his countryman Sergiy Stakhovsky, (and Lloyd Harris in the first round), I have Dolgopolov beating Zverev on account of Zverev not being 100% fit.
David Goffin should get past Evgeny Donskoy or Akira Santillan, with Donald Young or newly married Jeremy Chardy up in the quarters. Unless Goffin is in poor form he should be safe to reach the semis.
Joao Sousa is a strong favorite to emerge from his section, he opens with Henri Laaksonen, Marius Copil or Malek Jaziri will follow, with Paolo Lorenzi or Rogerio Dutra Silva likely in the quarters.
Predictions
Semis A. Zverev d. Dolgopolov
Goffin d. Sousa
Alexander Zverev and David Goffin are the co-favorites to take home the title in Shenzhen, and I give the slightest edge to Zverev by virtue of his tremendous season.
Veterans Ferrer and Isner, Young Gun Rublev Claim ATP Titles Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Bastad
David Ferrer grinded his way to his first ATP title in two years, claiming a third career Bastad title 6-4 6-4 over Alexandr Dolgopolov, who also sorely needed the ranking boost gained from reaching an ATP final, even at the 250 level. Ferrer’s record turned positive this year overall after wins against Federico Delbonis, Dustin Brown, Henri Laaksonen and Fernando Verdasco, as since reaching the third round of Wimbledon he’s looking much better in terms of form.
Dolgopolov also went above .500 this season overall, he defeated Leonardo Mayer, Horacio Zeballos, Karen Khachanov, and Andrey Kuznetsov, looking healthy in the process.
Julian Knowle and Philipp Petzschner defeated Sander Arends and Matwe Middelkoop in the doubles final.
ATP Newport
Overall, John Isner would have preferred more from his grass court season, but the 32 year old won Newport, and in the process gained his first ATP title in two years. His victims at the Hall of Fame Tennis Championships were Sam Groth, Dennis Novikov, Bjorn Fratangelo, and surprise finalist Matt Ebden 6-3 7-6.
Ebden, a 29 year old qualifier, reached his first ever ATP final, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Lacko, Tobias Kamke, and Peter Gojowczky were the players he defeated en route, as Newport has a habit of generating interesting upsets. Aisam Ul-Haq Qureshi and Rajeev Ram beat Matt Reid and J.P. Smith in the doubles final.
ATP Umag
Andrey Rublev was much more than a lucky loser in Umag, he now wears the title of champion, as he won his maiden ATP title over Paolo Lorenzi 6-4 6-2. Rublev defeated Carlos Berlocq, Andrej Martin, Fabio Fognini, and Ivan Dodig as well last week. Lorenzi beat Aljaz Bedene, Jiri Vesely, and Alessandro Giannessi, it was his second ATP final this season, although he’s lost both.
Guillermo Durán and Andres Molteni defeated Tomislav Draganja and Marin Draganja in the doubles final.
Harrison wins First ATP Title in Memphis, Dolgopolov Breaks Slump with Buenos Aires Triumph Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Rotterdam
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won his biggest tour title since the 2014 Canadian Masters with a 4-6 6-4 6-1 victory against David Goffin in the final of Rotterdam. The Frenchman moved well and played attacking tennis after early struggles against Goffin. Besides the final, he didn’t drop a set all week as he beat young gun Stefanos Tsitispas, Gilles Muller, Marin Cilic, and Tomas Berdych, three big hitters in a row to reach the final. Tsonga was much more agile than his opponents, and also more aggressive when it counted this week.
Goffin did not have an easy week, but remarkably made his second straight ATP final with wins over Andrey Kuznetsov, Robin Haase, Grigor Dimitrov, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Haase and Dimitrov both took a set against him, the win over Dimitrov was impressive given that the tired Bulgarian had defeated him in the Sofia final just a few days prior. Herbert, normally at his best in doubles, surprisingly reached the semfinals, emerging from a strong field to once again demonstrate he has plenty of talent for singles, but hasn’t always put it together.
Ivan Dodig and Marcel Granollers defeated Wesley Koolhof and Matwe Middelkoop in the doubles final, preventing the home fans from enjoying the Dutch pairing winning the doubles title at home in Holland.
ATP Memphis
It’s been a long road for the former ATP young gun Ryan Harrison. After years in the challenger wilderness, he has broken through once again at the ATP level, and he did so in a memorable way, defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili for his first ever ATP title 6-1 6-4. Harrison has improved his control of his emotions, is playing more aggressively, much more tactically, and mashing his forehand well. It showed against Basilashvili, and all week in Memphis.
Harrison hasn’t dropped a set in 10 matches, he entered Memphis with a challenger title under his belt, and quickly blazed past Konstantin Kravchuk, Sam Querrey, Damir Dzumhur, and Donald Young to reach the final, having improved his game even from a solid 2016, and added new quirks since emerging on tour years ago as a teenager.
Georgia’s #1 Basilashvili has now made two career ATP finals, he also didn’t drop a set on Memphis slow hard courts. He’s now 7-2 in his last two tournaments after wins against Jordan Thompson, Ivo Karlovic, Matt Ebden, and Mikhail Kukushkin. This week in Memphis we were treated to great performances by a pair of rising players.
Brian Baker and Nikola Mektic prevented Harrison from pulling off a brace, as the American/Croatian pair defeated Harrison and fellow Yank Steve Johnson in the doubles final.
ATP Buenos Aires
A loser of five straight finals heading into his match against Alexandr Dolgopolov, Kei Nishikori presumed he’d end the day as an ATP champion for the first time in a year. The human highlight reel Dolgopolov came to play though, his shotmaking pressured a passive Nishikori, and ended in an upset 7-6 6-4 victory for Ukraine’s #1. Nishikori played not to lose against a player ranked outside of the top 50, and in the process dropped his sixth straight ATP final. Dolgopolov had won just one match in months, but now leaves Argentina in great form that could allow him to return being a regular ATP top 30 player.
Dolgopolov played his best tennis in at least a year and now has three ATP titles in his career. Dolgo defeated Janko Tipsarevic, Pablo Cuevas, Gerald Melzer, and Pablo Carreno Busta without dropping a set. His results were extra impressive given he usually prefers fast surfaces over clay given he’s a flat hitter. Nishikori dropped sets against Diego Schwartzman and Carlos Berlocq, with a routine win over Joao Sousa inbetween, he did make the final, but he never seemed that comfortable on court in Buenos Aires.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Santiago Gonzalez/David Marrero to win the doubles final.
Three of the four Thursday singles matches were routine straight set affairs at the 2016 BB&T Atlanta Open. Nick Kyrgios made his highly anticipated debut in singles against fellow young gun Jared Donaldson in the night match, and he dominated proceedings 7-6 6-3. Kyrgios was strong on serve and he didn’t need much else. Kyrgios saved one break point in the first set, a first set that featured an hour long rain delay, and despite failing to break for the set 6-5 up when given two opportunities, he eased his way through the first set tiebreak.
Donaldson continued to be unable to bother Kyrgios on return, and his own serve wilted in the second set. He went down a double break as Kyrgios upped his game, eager to get off court. Despite getting one of the breaks back, Kyrgios went 5-3 up, and didn’t need to serve again, breaking Donaldson easily to take the match and reach the quarterfinals.
Kyrgios will face another fan favorite, veteran Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals. Verdasco broke Julien Benneteau four times in a resounding 6-1 6-3 win and he’s been playing great through two matches in Atlanta. Benneteau was dispatched in less than an hour, and never troubled Verdasco on serve, failing to generate a break point.
The #4 seed Alexandr Dolgopolov wasn’t entirely fit this week, and it showed, as he struggled through a three set loss to the upstart Japanese player Yoshihito Nishioka. Nishioka prevailed 6-3 2-6 6-1, as the first and third sets were over in less than 30 minutes. Dolgopolov failed to produce break points against a breakable Nishioka in either set. The second set saw Nishioka suddenly lose form, but despite that, he didn’t waver heading into the third, and Dolgopolov’s fitness issues revealed themselves, with the Atlanta heat not helping. Dolgopolov and his teammate Sergiy Stakhovsky later withdrew from the doubles match they were scheduled to play against Raja/Sharan.
Argentina’s Horacio Zeballos continued his great run of form in Atlanta this week, as he dispatched Tobias Kamke 6-1 6-4. Kamke got off to a slow start, and Zeballos, who isn’t a great server, wasn’t really under pressure in his service games throughout the match.
In the lone doubles match played Thursday, Demoliner/Garcia-Lopez defeated Marray/Shamasdin.
Six matches on tap for Friday
The doubles matches on Friday will be Eubanks/Kennedy vs. Molteni/Zeballos, and Brunstrom/Siljestrom vs. Monroe/Sitak. in Singles Zeballos faces Nishioka, Verdasco will be opposite Kyrgios, and a pair of All-American battles will take place with Opelka facing Young, and Isner taking on Fritz in the late match.
2016 ATP Atlanta Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The only ATP tournament this week is the final stop before Rio, the 2016 BB&T Atlanta Open. Tennis Atlantic will have live coverage all week once again this year.
BB&T Atlanta Open
ATP World Tour 250
Atlanta, GA, USA
August 1-7, 2016
Prize Money: $618,030
Surface: Hard
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: John Isner (16)
2: Nick Kyrgios (19)
3: Kevin Anderson (34)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (38)
A pair of top 20 players highlight the field in Atlanta, and rankings drop much lower from there.
First round matchups to watch:
(Q)Chris Eubanks vs. (WC)Reilly Opelka
Both these young Americans have promise, and Eubanks will have home support and momentum after qualifying. Still, the tall Opelka is continuing to develop nicely and looks to have a future perhaps on par with top seed John Isner, who shares the big frame of Opelka.
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Ivan Dodig
Stako has a h2h win over Dodig, who has lost four straight matches and is in terrible form. Stakhovsky has just two hard court wins this year at the ATP level, but Dodig has the same poor record, and thus Stako should have an edge in this match between serve and volleyers.
Groth has two wins against Donaldson, but he’s had an awful season and has lost three straight matches. The massive server has done little to develop the rest of his game, and has just two hard court wins at the ATP level this year. Donaldson qualified in both Washington and Toronto, and he’s six of his last eight matches, including a round of 16 result in Toronto. With Donaldson playing this well, it’s time he got his first win against Groth and continued his strong run of recent results.
Three-time defending champion John Isner is one of the favorites to take home a record fourth title in Atlanta. The American #1 will open with either Adrian Mannarino or qualifier Mischa Zverev as he looks to improve on his pedestrian play as of late. Isner is just 9-6 on hard courts this year, a poor record for him, but Mannarino isn’t in great form, and thus Isner should advance to the quarters like he did in Washington.
Memphis finalist Taylor Fritz hasn’t been playing well lately and has just two ATP wins since the end of the clay court season. Regardless, he’ll be the favorite against UGA’s top player Austin Smith, a wild card making his ATP debut, and he also should defeat either Bjorn Fratangelo, or Igor Sijsling, both of whom are challenger level players. Isner over Fritz is a safe pick in the quarters given Fritz struggles with consistently big servers like Isner.
Kevin Anderson has had a poor season, but he played surprisingly well in Toronto, reaching the quarterfinals, and should be able to continue that positive momentum if he can stay healthy. Anderson should get young gun winner of Eubanks/Opelka, then defeat Donald Young/Austin Krajicek or Tim Smyczek/Thiago Monteiro, probably Young, to reach the semifinals. Smyczek qualified in Toronto, and has an outside shot at the quarters. Young rarely plays well at home in Atlanta, but he’s been in decent form recently, and Krajicek came through qualifying.
Nick Kyrgios is playing just his third ATP 250 of the season, and making his debut in Atlanta. The young Aussie is 26-11 on the year, but he comes off an abysmal loss to teenager Denis Shapovalov in Toronto where he showed a complete lack of effort, and was poor on serve. If Kyrgios plays up to the level he’s capable of, he should cruise past Donaldson or Groth, and then most likely Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals, but he could be headed for another early exit if his head isn’t in the right place.
Verdasco is playing for the first time since Wimbledon and he wasn’t in great form the last time he played. Still he’s 18-14 on the season and his experience and ability outweights Serbian Dusan Lajovic, who is poor on hard courts, and his round 2 opponent, either Julien Benneteau, or qualifier J.P. Smith. Benneteau has been terrible this year as the French veteran has struggled to return from injury. Kyrgios should be able to power past Verdasco given a previous h2h win last year on hard courts.
Alexandr Dolgopolov will have to deal with hot conditions, and he’s won just one of his last three matches, but the inconsistent shotmaker is still the favorite to reach the quarterfinals out of his section. Dan Evans showed promise at Wimbledon and Washington, but he comes off a challenger match loss, and faces off with Japanese speed demon Yoshihito Nishioka in the first round. Nishioka could knock off Evans, as he showed good form in recent challengers. Evans is a bit of a dark horse, but Dolgopolov over Evans is my bracket pick.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez hasn’t had a great season, but Horacio Zeballos is a dirtballer who doesn’t play well on hard courts, and his round 2 opponent would be either Stakhovsky or Dodig, both of whom have been awful this season. Although Stakhovsky is another possible dark horse, Garcia-Lopez should reach the quarterfinals, before most likely falling to Dolgopolov’s shotmaking. He’s 3-1 against Dolgo, but those wins did not come on hard courts, Dolgopolov’s best surface.
Evans showed tremendous promise in a comprehensive upset of Grigor Dimitrov in Washington. With an open field, and an open section of the draw, a big win over Dolgopolov would give Evans a shot to go as far as the semifinals without facing either of the top two seeds who are the real threats this tournament.
Predictions
Semis Isner d. Anderson
Kyrgios d. Dolgopolov
Isner hasn’t been playing well, but he always gets rejuvenated playing in front of friends and family in Atlanta, along with the raucous crowd. Anderson could knock him off given his recent form, but I can’t expect it. Kyrgios is a strong favorite to make the final if he doesn’t lose his focus.
Final Isner d. Kyrgios
It’s hard to pick against Isner in Atlanta if he’s healthy. Isner having a h2h win last year on hard court also works in his favor.
Dimitrov and Bouchard Fall on Tuesday at Citi Open Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Fan favorites Grigor Dimitrov and Eugenie Bouchard crashed out of the Citi Open on Tuesday at the hands of Dan Evans and Camila Giorgi respectively. Dimitrov played with malaise in the afternoon heat, creating an opportunity for Evans that he seized upon. The Brit dictated with his one handed backhand and came away with a 6-4 6-4 victory in less than an hour and a half of play. Dimitrov was broken in the opening game of the match, then broken once more after breaking back. He had a chance at the end of the first set to get the match to 5-5, but failed to do so.
In the second set, it was more of the same, with Evans steady on his serve, snuffing out chances for Dimitrov. Evans attacked Dimitrov’s serve and ended up 5-2 up, and serving for the match. He had three match points serving 5-2, but Dimitrov clawed back, and made a late rally, holding at love to force Evans to serve for the match once again at 5-4. Despite the final game going to deuce, a fifth match point was finally the clincher for Evans, as Dimitrov’s baseline game simply broke down when it mattered. A woeful season continues for Dimitrov, while Evans is perhaps making his move into a regular ATP tour quality player.
Bouchard, another would be star who has had woeful results this season, fell to Giorgi 7-5 6-4. She was behind the entire first set, at one point 4-1 down, only to break back, before eventually being broken on her own serve when serving to force a first set tiebreak. In the second set, the story repeated itself, with Giorgi going 4-2 up, Bouchard breaking back, but losing her own serve at 4-5 with the match on the line. Giorgi only had one match point, but it’s all she needed to score a big win.
In other WTA results, Naomi Broady defeated Irina Falconi 6-3 6-4, Sabine Lisicki was all smiles against Kristina Kucova 6-3 7-5, Christina McHale got past the unorthodox Monica Niculescu 6-3 6-4, Tamira Paszek defeated qualifier Lauren Albanese 6-3 6-4, Monica Puig won the lone battle on the day against Oceane Dodin 6-2 4-6 6-3 in two hours, and Risa Ozaki stunned Sloane Stephens 6-2 6-1 in less than an hour. Stephens played one of her worst matches of the season, while Puig looked dominant until she didn’t against Dodin, and had to fight her way back.
In the lone ATP doubles match on the day, Lukasz Kubot and Alexander Peya won a tight battle against Brian Baker and Austin Krajicek 4-6 6-2 10-8.
As for ATP singles, there were a lot of close tiebreak matches on the day. Brian Baker needed two tiebreaks to defeat the big serving Sam Groth. Groth was poor on return, as is usual, but just a few points difference separated the two men, as a frustrated Groth easily could have been the winner instead. Fellow American Ryan Harrison didn’t play incredibly great, but he still defeated a likely jet-lagged Stephane Robert 7-6 6-3. Ivan Dodig retired down 6-2 4-2 against Yoshihito Nishioka, as he was also feeling the effects of fatigue.
Austin Krajicek lost twice on the day, as he also fell in singles at the hands of Rendy Lu, 6-1 7-6. Donald Young found himself in a tight contest with lower ranked qualifier Ernesto Escobedo, he eventually prevailed 6-4 3-6 6-3, as Escobedo had few chances in the third set to get back into the match. Tall American Reilly Opelka battled hard for what would have been a big win against Malek Jaziri, but Jaziri was steady on his own serve, despite his struggles against the American’s height. The match finished 6-7 7-6 7-6, as late in the third set, Opelka was experiencing shoulder pain and had to call the trainer. With as well as he played against an ATP tour regular, Opelka showed more than a glimpse of his potential.
Another young gun, Denis Shapovalov, put up quite the contest against an ATP regular. Lukas Lacko needed three sets against the young Canadian, winning 7-6 4-6 6-4. The first set of the match featured four breaks of serve, while the second had just one, which went against Lacko. Shapovalov tightened up his game as the match went on, while Lacko forced him to hit a lot of his one handed backhands, a lethal, but at times erratic shot for him. In the third, Shapovalov was serving to make it 5-5, but found himself broken on match point, sending Lacko into the next round by the skin of his teeth. Despite the loss, it’s clear Shapovalov has the game to compete well on the ATP tour as a young gun.
Alexandr Dolgopolov found himself in a two hour war against Jordan Thompson. Dolgo was cruising up 6-4 in the first set, and connecting on his blistering shots from both wings. He played a miserable second set however, losing it 6-1, and in the third set, he was a comfortable 5-2 up, before getting broken and eventually forced into a third set tiebreak, a tiebreak that he got ahead in, and didn’t look back, taking the match 6-4 1-6 7-6. Though he surely wished the match had been easier, Dolgopolov packed the stands with his exciting play.
In late action, Benoit Paire dominated Jared Donaldson 6-0 7-5, and Sam Querrey came back from a shock first set dropped against Bjorn Fratangelo to win 6-7 6-4 6-4. Querrey wasn’t broken in the match until late in the third set, and at that point he was still 5-3 up, and served the match out in his next service game to earn an important victory. Thunderstorms moved in late on Tuesday, interrupting Steve Johnson vs. Adrian Mannarino (4-2 for Johnson), Kristina Mladenovic vs. Samantha Crawford (6-2 1-3), and Lauren Davis vs. Shelby Rogers (4-4). Those matches will be completed today.
The tournament marches on today with big matches on both the ATP and WTA side as the top seeds take to the court.
Team Australia Wins Hopman Cup 2016 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The young gun tandem of Nick Kyrgios and Daria Gavrilova put together a great Hopman Cup campaign to win the top tier exhibition over a host of other talented teams.
Kyrgios beat fellow young Alexandr Zverev in three sets, top 5 player Andy Murray in straights, and Frenchman Kenny De Schepper by the same number of sets to help on the men’s singles side, then beat Alex Dolgopolov in the final. The hard hitting, charismatic Kyrgios looks to be in great form heading into the Australian Open.
Gavrilova lost to Heather Watson and Carolina Garcia, but did beat Germany’s Sabine Lisicki, and finalist Elina Svitolina. The Australian team were most successful in mixed doubles, going 3-0 in their matches against Zverev/Lisicki, De Schepper/Garcia, and Murray/Watson. They won both of the singles ties in the final, and thus didn’t need to play an additional mixed doubles tie.
Dolgopolov, like Kyrgios, was 3 -0 in singles play. The unpredictable shotmaker defeated a retiring Lleyton Hewitt, Jack Sock, and Jiri Vesely to help his team reach the final.
Svitolina also went 3-0 in round robin play, with wins over Jarmila Wolfe, Victoria Duval, and Karolina Pliskova. She looks to be in good form heading into the coming weeks as well.
The exhibition schedule features “Fast 4” tennis this week, along with the Kooyong Classic, which once again features over a dozen ATP caliber players, and the Adelaide World Tennis Challenge, a smaller exhibition event.
2016 ATP Sydney Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final ATP stop on the Emirates Australian Open Series is in Sydney at the joint ATP/WTA Apia International as many players will look to get their final tune ups in before heading over to Melbourne for the Australian Open.
ATP Sydney
Apia International Sydney
ATP World Tour 250
Sydney, Australia
January 11-January 17, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $404,780
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Bernard Tomic (18)
2: Dominic Thiem (20)
3: Viktor Troicki (22)
4: Grigor Dimitrov (28)
Sydney lacks a top tier player this year as it’s anybody’s tournament to win.
Klizan is on a four match losing streak dating back to last season while Thompson comes off the semis of the Noumea Challenger. The young Australian still lacks an ATP win, but he’s had some great challenger results and sits at a career high ranking just outside the top 150. On home soil look for Thompson to fight hard and pull off an upset, especially if Klizan fires wildly from the baseline.
Tommy Robredo vs. (WC)John Millman
33 year old Tommy Robredo had a decent fall swing, but last year was a relative disappointment for the Spaniard, and he faces a home Australian who he trails 0-3 in the career h2h. Millman is talented and seems to have Robredo’s number. The Australian won a match in Chennai, and he should be able to do the same here with a quality round 1 win.
Mahut is 5-1 against Mannarino and has won their last four meetings. Mannarino comes in as the champion in the Noumea challenger however, and his form looks to be sharp. The serve and volleying veteran Mahut qualified to snap a four match losing streak, and given the h2h he has a great shot at an upset against a possibly fatigued Mannarino.
Borna Coric vs. Gilles Muller
Muller won a round in Chennai, while Coric reached his first ever ATP final there and is off to a fantastic start at the beginning of the season. The Croatian teenager is talented, but likely tired, and Muller’s serve and volley should do enough damage to earn him the win, and potentially a deep run this week.
Top Half:
Brisbane semifinalist Bernard Tomic captured the title in Sydney in 2013. Tomic is the home favorite and tends to perform well under those conditions. His junkballing game should allow him to get past Thompson/Klizan and then Leonardo Mayer or Sam Groth in the quarterfinals. Groth, and his first round opponent Federico Delbonis, are both on four match losing streaks dating back to last season. The Australian is a big server while FDB prefers clay. Mayer opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili who won a match in Doha, and beat him in Basel last year. The Argentine comes off the quarterfinals in Doha. Groth could catch fire, but I have Tomic over Mayer as the odds on quarterfinal match.
Defending champion Viktor Troicki opens with the Robredo/Millman winner. Troicki won a round in Brisbane and should have enough to beat Robredo or Millman. Mannarino/Mahut or Denis Istomin/Andreas Seppi are quarterfinal options. Seppi is 3-1 against Istomin on hard courts, and he should be able to beat Mannarino or Mahut as well, though it’s a very open section. Seppi has a h2h win on hard courts against Troicki, but the Serbian should be a cut above, and able to reach the semifinals with a chance to defend his title.
Bottom Half:
Dominic Thiem had a great start to his season, reaching the semifinals. The young Austrian appears primed to perform in Sydney as he should have the inside track against Coric/Muller in a great second round match, and likely Jeremy Chardy in the quarterfinals. Muller could also make a run, and a match against Coric would be a young gun battle. Chardy comes off the quarterfinals in Doha, but trails qualifier Mikhail Kukushkin 0-2 in the h2h. Round 2 for Chardy/Kukushkin will be Julien Benneteau or James Duckworth. Benny reached the quarterfinals of the Noumea challenger in his first match on tour since the spring of last year, while Duckworth took a set off Thiem in Brisbane.
Thiem and Chardy have never met, but I’ll go with Thiem’s form, like Tomic’s, to reach the semifinals.
Brisbane quarterfinalist Grigor Dimitrov should be able to reach the semis, but Hopman Cup finalist Alexandr Dolgopolov (went 3-1 in round robin play), could upset the apple cart. Dimitrov will open with an easy match against qualifier Max Marterer or Pablo Cuevas while Dolgopolov opens with big hitter Thomaz Bellucci and is due to face Alex Sarkissian or Simone Bolelli round 2. Sarkissian qualified as the young American continues to rise. Dolgopolov should get past Bellucci and Bolelli to reach the quarters.
Dimitrov is 2-1 on the hard court h2h against Dolgopolov, Dolgo looks to be razor sharp right now though. He’s one of the most unpredictable talents on tour, but presuming he has it together, I have him reaching the semis.
There are a number of potential dark horses this week with such an open field. Muller would need to beat Coric and Thiem, but if he beats those young guns, he’ll have a great shot at a run to the final or beyond. He has the game for it, it’s just a matter of how well he serves.
Predictions
Semis Tomic d. Troicki
Thiem d. Dolgopolov
Tomic is 2-1 on hard courts against Troicki, Thiem has a hard court win against Dolgopolov. I wouldn’t put it past the Ukrainian to run to the title, but he’s very hard to predict.
Final Tomic d. Thiem
Both Thiem and Tomic started the season with identical records. Tomic is a former champion in Sydney however, and should have a slight edge to capture another Australian Open series title.
Roger Federer gave himself momentum heading into the US Open with a masterclass 7-6(1) 6-3 victory over world #1 Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati on Sunday. The victory gives Federer seven career titles in Cincinnati, as he repeats as champion, and once more denies Djokovic the lone Masters 1000 title that he lacks.
Federer was aggressive against Novak on the day, and finished the match in just an hour and a half of afternoon play in the warm sunshine. Djokoic, though he reached the final, was clearly less than 100% and his failure to generate a single break point against the Federer serve demonstrated that fact. Normally one of the best returners in the mens’ game, Djokovic was on the defensive from the start, and though he saved seven of eight break point chances in the match, after the first set tiebreak he had a limited chance of engineering a comeback. His poor tiebreak proving to be the defining moment of the match.
Federer choosing to skip Montreal and play just Cincy as a warm up for the US Open seemed to pay off as the fresh veteran #2 seed didn’t drop a set all week in Ohio. He started his title campaign with routine wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Kevin Anderson, and then rolled past Feliciano Lopez and Montreal champ Andy Murray to reach the final. Lopez had upset Rafael Nadal in the previous round, his best win of the season, and Murray was in good form, but fatigued by the time the semifinal took place.
Djokovic still demonstrated why he’s the world #1 this week, without being entirely healthy and fit, he got past Benoit Paire in straights, David Goffin in three sets, Stan Wawrinka in straights, losing just five games total to his rival, and surprise semifinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov, who posted his best result of the season with a win over Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, but came up just short of upsetting Novak once again this year, losing in three sets, after being up a set and in a second set tiebreak. Both Goffin and Dolgopolov saw their level drop, the closer they got to a potential victory against Djokovic.
Presuming he can gets some rest and recover his health and conditioning, Novak will remain the favorite to take the US Open title, while Federer ensured he’s going to be part of the title conversation with Andy Murray, all of whom had good summers on the US Open Series. Murray also won the 2015 Emirates Airlines US Open Series bonus challenge over Djokovic.
In doubles Daniel Nestor and Edouard Roger-Vasselin did one better than their final in Montreal and took the title over fellow veterans Marcin Matkowski and Nenad Zimonjic.
2015 ATP Winston-Salem Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Winston-Salem, the final stop for the ATP tour on the 2015 Emirates Airlines US Open Series is also the final 2015 US Open tune up for the men’s players opting to participate this week and get in matches just before the final slam of the year, the US Open. Here is a preview of ATP tennis, Carolina style.
Winston-Salem Open
ATP World Tour 250
Winston-Salem,NC,USA
August 23-August 30, 2015
Prize Money: $616,210
Top 8 seeds (top 16 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gilles Simon (11)
2: Kevin Anderson (15)
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (19)
4: Viktor Troicki (20)
5: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (29)
6: Thomaz Bellucci (33)
7: Sam Querrey (34)
8: Borna Coric (38)
Four top 20 players in the field this week, as Winston-Salem has a relatively strong field for a 250.
The big serving Groth has missed two weeks this summer, after reaching the quarterfinals in Washington, and thus his form should be in question. Donaldson,a rising American, has yet to suffer a first round defeat this summer, and the teenager has a chance to continue that streak in this one. Dealing with Groth’s serve is always a challenge, but Donaldson competes well and tends to play clutch tennis, that should suit him in match that is likely to feature tiebreaks, and I have JD pulling off an upset and reaching round 2 with a win over the Australian.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Dolgopolov had another random hot streak of run that showcased his inconsistent talent as he reached the semifinals in Cincinnati, his best result this season. After pushing Novak Djokovic to three sets in that semifinal, he should be full of confidence, and he also helped boost his ranking back up. That said, the human highlight reel is likely fatigue after a long week in Ohio, and may not transition well here. Kokkinakis continues to improve his standing on tour and qualified for Cincy, reaching round 2. This should be a showcase first round match, and I have Kokkinakis getting through because I see Dolgopolov as being fatigued.
Lukas Rosol vs. Ernests Gulbis
Gulbis just beat Rosol in three sets in Montreal, and now the defending champion of Winston-Salem will have to try to get past him, as he seeks to defend his ranking points. Gulbis had his best result of the season in Montreal, reaching the quarterfinals, but he struggled in the Vancouver challenger, and he’s been horrid overall this year. With a strange travel schedule, I’m not sure he’ll acclimate well to the matches here, and I see Rosol getting revenge and snapping a two match losing streak to reach round 2. This match should feature a lot of ball bashing as both of these guys are power baseliners.
Gilles Simon, who is a pedestrian 1-2 this summer, will start his Winston-Salem campaign against either a qualifier or Aljaz Bedene, who hasn’t played a hard court match since the spring. Bedene was in good for, this summer, but the qualifier will likely have an edge given the surface, and Simon should be able to get a win and push himself into the round of 16. There, he could face trouble, as Marcos Baghdatis, a finalist in Atlanta, is his likely opponent. Baghdatis will need to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky or a qualifier to get that far. Stako is in poor form, and presuming he’s healthy, I’d give a fit and aggressive Baghdatis an edge over his round 2 opponent. Baghdatis is 2-0 on outdoor hard against Simon, and if healthy, I see him scoring an upset over the out of form Frenchman, in what could be a great week for the ball striking veteran. Baghdatis should reach the quarters from the first section.
Sam Querrey will face either Simone Bolelli or Federico Delbonis first up, Bolelli is 10-9 on a hard court this year but hasn’t played much recently, Delbonis is a dirtballer, so the Italian should win that one, but Querrey is likely to win against Bolelli. The American comes off an upset win over John Isner in Cincy, and his form appears improved, home soil should suit him well. In the third round look for Querrey against Tommy Haas or Joao Sousa. Haas is just 1-3 on US soil this season, but he’s still a veteran talent and should defeat dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta. Sousa upset Philipp Kohlschreiber in Cincy to improve his hard court record to 4-7 outdoors this season, and that should be good enough for the Portugese #1 to earn a win and face Querrey in the third round, presuming his opponent is a rusty Haas. Given Querrey is normally a superior hard court player, I’d give him the edge over Sousa to reach the quarters.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will collide against either Donald Young or Denis Istomin in his first match. Young hasn’t had a good season but he qualified in Montreal and Istomin has a poor outdoor hard court record this year, thus I have him winning in round 1 but losing to the superior Tsonga in round 2. The Montreal quarterfinalist could get a difficult third round match against American Steve Johnson, presuming Johnson dispatches the Groth/Donaldson winner in round 2. Groth and Donaldson are also possible dark horses. Johnson reached the semis in Washington but has struggled since then, and Tsonga has the most talent here, so he should be able to put some wins together and reach the quarters.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is returning from injury and playing for the first time on hard courts this summer. The Spaniard is 6-6 outdoors this year on hard courts but he still may struggle against either Rendy Lu or Robin Haase. Lu qualified for Montreal and Cincy, and given he’s at his best on this surface and his form appears good for his limited skillset, he could well have a great tournament this week. I see Taiwan’s #1 scoring a win over Haase and an upset over an out of form GGL to reach the third round, where he should face the in-form Benoit Paire. The talented but underachieving Paire won an ATP title on clay not long ago and qualified in Cincy, he’s playing some of his best tennis in years. Presuming he’s dialed in, the Frenchman should have limited difficulties against either James Ward, or more likely young gun Hyeon Chung in round 2, and then I see him getting past Lu with his talented backhand and shotmaking to reach a hard court ATP quarterfinal. Paire is all flair, and Lu is all business in a style contrast.
Bottom Half:
Presuming he’s healthy, Kevin Anderson has a venue and conditions that could create a great week for him, but he’ll have to find his form before the US Open to do that. Big Kev snapped a summer losing streak and won a pair of matches in Cincy, that bodes well for him, and I see him getting a win over Mikhail Kukushkin/Nicolas Mahut in his first match. In the third round he could well have to battle against Rosol/Gulbis, though Jerzy Janowicz is also an option. Janowicz also won a pair of matches in Cincy, and I see him winning a ball bashers battle if he can focus in against Gulbis/Rosol, though it’s a hard section to predict. Anderson with his big serve and strong forehand is the best player in this section for the surface, and thus I see him reaching the quarters, but another player could take his place, as his form has been inconsistent this summer. This section features some big hitters.
Borna Coric has played solid tennis this summer on the US Open Series, though he’s had some tough draws, as he dropped closed matches to Tsonga and Stan Wawrinka in Montreal and Cincy. With that in mind, the young Croatian should defeat either Santiago Giraldo or Steve Darcis in round 2, given how pedestrian both of those veterans have been as of late. He’ll also be a strong favorite in round 3, as one of Pablo Andujar/Diego Schwartzman/Daniel Gimeno-Traver will reach the third round in one of the weakest hard court sections possible at the ATP level. All of those players prefer clay, and Coric has a great opportunity to excel on hard courts right before the US Open, reaching at least the quarterfinals (over Andujar in my bracket).
Viktor Troicki doesn’t have a difficult first match against Malek Jaziri/Joao Souza, but the Serbian #2 is in horrible form and is playing well below his top 20 ranking at the moment. I see Jaziri, who reached the quarterfinals in a pro circuit challenger last week, getting revenge on the dirtballer Souza for his loss in Doha earlier in the season, and then extending Troicki’s losing streak to six matches. With Troicki not much of a threat, and Jaziri a journeyman, the section opens up for Thanasi Kokkinakis most likely. Teymuraz Gabashvili is slated to face the winner of Kokkinakis/Dolgopolov, but besides the fact he beat Andy Murray in Washington, the underachieving Russian has a poor record on ATP level hard courts this year. The young gun Kokkinakis should join his fellow young gun Coric in the quarterfinals this week.
Thomaz Bellucci will face off with either James Duckworth or a qualifier in his first match. Both Bellucci and Duckworth are 2-3 this summer on hard courts, though Bellucci has had tougher draws. The big hitting Brazilian should win his first match before a likely face off with Jiri Vesely, who won an ATP title on hard courts at the start of the season in Auckland. Vesely is 8-6 on outdoor hard this year and has to beat Marsel Ilhan or a qualifier first, Bellucci just beat Vesely last week in Cincy, and thus he should reach the quarterfinals with a weak draw.
I have Thanasi Kokkinakis as a semifinalist, but Baghdatis has a chance to walk away with the title this week as a veteran, though he’ll need to beat Simon, Sam Querrey, and possibly Tsonga/Anderson to do so. Marcos showed renewed vigor, stamina, and passion in his run to the Atlanta final, a similar surface and venue, and he showed his aggressive ball striking was well-suited for hot conditions. An abductor injury is a concern, but if he’s healthy don’t count Baghdatis out to have another remarkable week on the US Open Series.
Predictions
Quarters Querrey d. Baghdatis
Tsonga d. Paire
Kokkinakis d. Bellucci
Anderson d. Coric
Querrey on home soil should have an edge over Baghdatis, who may not be 100%, though I don’t count Marcos out to even win the title. Tsonga is 2-0 against Paire and better on a hard court, Anderson should also have a surface edge in his match, as Coric may struggle with his big serve, and Kokkinakis is also likely superior on hard court to Bellucci in a difficult match to predict.
Semis Tsonga d. Querrey
Anderson d. Kokkinakis
Tsonga has a win over the mentally weak Querrey this year,and Anderson has a h2h win over Kokkinakis from Toronto last year, They are the best two players in terms of talent and form in this draw for the surface, and thus should meet in the final.
A great chance for either player to get an ATP title this week, they have only met once on clay and Tsonga prevailed, but on hard court I feel the advantage shifts to Anderson, who is hoping to walk away with at least one title on the US Open Series this summer.
Tennis Atlantic 