2017 ATP Kitzbuhel Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Kitzbuhel is on the calendar once again, and it’s a 250 level opportunity for some of the best dirtballers in tennis.
Generali Open
ATP World Tour 250
Kitzbuhel, Austria
July 31-August 5, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €482,060
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Pablo Cuevas (26)
2: Fabio Fognini (31)
3: Paolo Lorenzi (36)
4: Gilles Simon (39)
Kitzbuhel attracts a solid group of dirtballers this year.
Top Half:
Pablo Cuevas, 14-9 on clay this year, is on a three match losing streak that he should break against either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Sebastian Ofner. With Basilashvili playing poorly, I have Ofner pulling an upset at home before falling to Cuevas. Hamburg semifinalist Federico Delbonis should defeat Renzo Olivo. Horacio Zeballos or Rogerio Dutra Silva will follow, presuming Delbonis isn’t fatigued, he should reach the quarters before falling to Cuevas.
Paolo Lorenzi reached the final in Umag, he should beat Joao Sousa or Mikhail Youzhny in round 2. Sousa found a bit of form last week in Gstaad, but Lorenzi is the best player on clay in his section. Wild card Gerald Melzer should defeat a struggling Carlos Berlocq. Melzer comes off a challenger final, Gstaad semifinalist Robin Haase has never beaten qualifier Santiago Giraldo, but he should reach the quarterfinal with wins over Giraldo and Melzer, before falling to Lorenzi.
Bottom Half:
Gstaad champion Fabio Fognini should beat either Andrey Kuznetsov or Milijan Zekic. Kuznetsov is a dark horse, but I’ll back Fognini’s form. Jan-Lennard Struff faces a struggling Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov could catch fire and beat him round 2, after defeating a struggling Thomaz Bellucci, but I have Struff falling to Fognini in the quarterfinals.
Gilles Simon is struggling, but he’s the favorite against Dusan Lajovic or the steadily improving Max Marterer. Jiri Vesely has reached consecutive ATP quarterfinals. Vesely opens with Gstaad finalist Yannick Hanfmann, who should be out of gas. Philipp Kohlschreiber or Facundo Bagnis await in round 2, Kohlschreiber’s health is in question, thus Vesely is my favorite to go as far as the semifinals, upsetting Simon in the quarters.
Dark Horse: Andrey Kuznetsov
Kuznetsov is talented enough to upset a tired Fognini and make a run all the way to the final, I don’t predict it, but he’s the most dangerous non-seeded player in the draw this week.
Predictions
Semis Lorenzi d. Cuevas
Vesely d. Fognini
It’s anyone’s title in Kitzbuhel this week, but I favor the Italian dirtballer Lorenzi to grab a key title.
2016 ATP Kitzbuhel Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Austria and Switzerland both have ATP clay court events this week, spreading out some of Europe’s top ATP talent (as does Umag, the third clay 250 this week).
Generali Open
ATP World Tour 250
Kitzbuhel, Austria
July 18-23, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Dominic Thiem (9)
2: Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
3: Marcel Granollers (45)
4: Paolo Lorenzi (48)
Kitzbuhel has a big drop off in ranking after the top two seeds.
Albert Montanes won a round in Bastad last week, and the Spanish veteran looks set to oust Austrian clay specialist Gerald Melzer, who has stalled in his development as a player this year in some ways. The aging Montanes could have a good tournament.
(7)Inigo Cervantes vs. (Q)Daniel Gimeno-Traver
DGT qualified and has been in solid form over recent weeks. Cervantes likewise has been playing well and this should be a competitive, and technically sound clay court match. It’s hard to predict a winner, but a fresher Cervantes likely has a slight edge.
Top Half:
Top seed Dominic Thiem is a heavy favorite, nearly retired wild card Jurgen Melzer, or Taro Daniel should fall to him in round 2, with Cervantes or Montanes set to do the same in the quarterfinals.
Roberto Carballes Baena and Paolo Lorenzi will contest a quarterfinal spot. RCB just has to defeat wild card Dennis Novak in round 1. With Lorenzi slightly better this season on clay, I have him advancing from the quarterfinals after defeating a struggling J.L. Struff. Struff is seeded, and faces wild card Akira Santillan in round 1. The 19 year old Santillan was born in Japan and appears to have a bright future ahead as he makes his ATP debut, although he’s sharper on faster surfaces compared to clay. Both Michael Berrer and Daniel Munoz De La Nava are in terrible form, so Struff likely wins in round 2 as well.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, the defending champion, could use some good mojo. Kohlschreiber was a quarterfinalist in Hamburg and should have no problem defeating either Karen Khachanov or qualifier Filippo Volandri in round 2. Facundo Bagnis or Dusan Lajovic should be his quarterfinal opponent. Lajovic played Davis Cup, although he’s been struggling recently, and Rogerio Dutra Silva his round 1 opponent hasn’t been playing well either. Bastad quarterfinalist Bagnis should defeat Mischa Zverev and Lajovic, before falling to Kohlschreiber.
Spanish veteran Marcel Granollers looks to be a near lock for the semis based on how his draw sets up. Granollers will face the lower ranked qualifier Maximo Gonzalez or Adam Pavlasek in round 2, with likely Lukas Rosol to follow in the quarters. Rosol hasn’t been playing well, although Nikoloz Basilashvili, and either Igor Sijsling or Kenny de Schepper are weaker opponents on clay than he is. De Schepper and Sijsling play power tennis, but poorer than Rosol does, while on clay, Granollers has a clear edge.
This Argentine should make at least the quarterfinals, and he could take advantage of a faltering Kohlschreiber to go even farther. An ATP breakthrough is imminent.
Predictions
Semis Thiem d. Lorenzi
Kohlschreiber d. Granollers
Kohlschreiber played well here last year, and it’s going to be hard to stop Thiem on home clay.
In Austria, Thiem should win this final and continue his incredible and exhausting season as he pushes to make the World Tour finals. This would be his first win against Kohlschreiber on clay (0-2).
2015 ATP Kitzbuhel Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final ATP clay court tournament in 2015 will once again take place in Kitzbuhel, Austria. The resort town hosts a 250 level tournament as dirtballers vie for a final chance at points and cash on clay.
2015 ATP Kitzbuhel Preview
Generali Open
ATP World Tour 250
Kitzbuhel, Austria
August 3-August 8, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Dominic Thiem (21)
2: Andreas Seppi (24)
3: Fabio Fognini (27)
4: Martin Klizan (34)
A solid group of clay courters feature in Kitzbuhel, headlined by Austrian #1 Dominic Thiem who has won three ATP titles on clay this year (Nice, Umag, and Gstaad).
(6)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (Q)Jan-Lennard Struff
The fourth career meeting between Struff and Kohlschreiber, the h2h is split 1-1 with Kohli have a win on clay, and Struff on hard court in Doha this year. Struff jut came through qualifying in routine fashion, and is playing his best tennis in months. The 25 year old has always had baseline talent but he tends to struggle under pressure and has shown mental weakness in his career. Kohlschreiber, who is Davis Cup Teammates with Struffi has lost two straight and comes off a round 1 loss to Benoit Paire in Hamburg. He’s normally solid on clay but he’s struggled to be consistent this year, and Struff could catch him in a slump. Kohlschreiber is the favorite though.
(5)Juan Monaco vs. Robin Haase
Monaco leads the h2h with Haase 3-2, and won their last meeting in Gstaad last year on clay (1-1 on clay). That said, the Dutchman is a two-time champion in Kitzbuhel and Monaco is just 3-5 since the French Open, as the veteran Argentine seems to be struggling after having a nice Spring. Haase has been in decent form, and presumably should be rested up for this match. It should be close, but given the venue I see Haase scratching out a minor upset over the seed and reaching round 2.
(7)Jiri Vesely vs. Nicolas Almagro
Nicolas Almagro has been struggling since returning from injury, the formerly top tier Spaniard is looking to break a four match losing streak dating back to the French Open here in Kitzbuhel where he is using a protected ranking. The young gun Vesely gave both Fabio Fognini and Rafael Nadal good matches on clay over the past two weeks, and this is an easier draw for him. Almagro is a recognizable name, but Vesely seems to be the superior player right now as his steady play should see him through to round 2.
Dominic Thiem is 18-5 on clay this year and has won eight straight matches as he took back to back 250 titles in Umag and Gstaad. He may well be out of gas in front of the home fans in Kitzbuhel, but the Austrian #1 does get a bye and his round 2 opponent will be either a possibly injured Andreas Haider-Maurer, who is also Austrian, or a struggling Joao Souza, a loser of four straight matches. Thiem’s fatigue is a difficult factor to predict, but I still see him reaching the quarterfinals.
#8 seed Albert Ramos is a possible benefactor of the fatigue Thiem almost certainly is feeling. Ramos will open with Diego Schwartzman, who has lost six straight matches, and presuming the Spanish veteran lefty wins that either degraded veteran Albert Montanes, a lucky loser, or Gerald Melzer, a home Austrian, will be his round 2 opponent. Melzer is in horrid form like Schwartzman, and Ramos is simply a level above Montanes, thus a Thiem vs. Ramos quarterfinal is the pick.
Thiem and Ramos have never played before, and if Thiem is simply in form and not feeling too much fatigue he likely wins, however it’s a hard match to predict and Ramos could also win.
Hamburg finalist Fabio Fognini is always a tank risk, especially in a small tournament like this, but if his good form continues he should beat Aljaz Bedene for the second time in as many weeks. Bedene opens with wild card Dennis Novak, and has been in excellent form as of late, that said, he fell to Fognini in straight sets in the Hamburg quarters, after upsetting Roberto Bautista Agut. In the quarters, Fognini could face Kohlschreiber/Struff, or Santiago Giraldo/qualifier Rogerio Dutra Silva. Giraldo beat RDS in Houston this year on clay and comes off of the quarters in Gstaad. Kohli beat Giraldo this year in Umag, but Giraldo won the previous two meetings on clay and may well be in better form, thus I have Fognini over Giraldo in the quarters.
Fognini is 1-1 on clay this year against Santi, he beat him in Madrid but lost to him in Sao Paulo. Overall Fognini leads the h2h 5-3 with a majority of their meetings taking place on clay. It’s a tough pick, but if Fognini is committed he should reach the semifinals here.
Bottom Half:
Hamburg semifinalist Andreas Seppi played his way into form on clay with a pair of wins and should cruise into the quarters over either Dusan Lajovic or nearly retired Mikhail Youzhny who hasn’t won a match in over two months. Lajovic is likewise struggling and it’s likely to be a Seppi vs. Vesely quarterfinal. Vesely will have to beat Jurgen Melzer or Daniel Gimeno-Traver after facing Almagro. DGT is in terrible form as a loser of 7 straight, while Melzer is in the twilight of his career but should do his best on home soil.
I have a hunch Vesely is a better player on clay than Seppi, as Seppi was 0-4 on clay before Hamburg this year, thus I’m going with the Czech to make a surprise semifinal this week.
The other semifinal slot could be filled by Martin Klizan, but he hasn’t been in great form as of late, with a record of six straight losses. Klizan remains 11-9 on clay this year and either Kenny De Schepper or Bastad quarterfinalist Paul-Henri Mathieu will be his round 2 opponent. PHM is in good form, and presuming the veteran has enough gas in the tank I have him upsetting Klizan to reach another quarterfinal, where he could line up across from Monaco/Haase. The winner of Monaco/Haase will face Pablo Carreno Busta or Federico Delbonis. PCB reached the quarters in Gstaad, but both he and Delbonis lost to the same player there, Dominic Thiem, the eventual champion. Look for Haase to fall to PCB, the Spaniard is 2-0 on clay against Robin and just beat him in Gstaad in straights.
PHM and PCB have never met, however I’ve been impressed by Mathieu’s form on both the challenger tour and now the main tour, he’s in great form on clay and has always had the talent, thus I have him reaching the semis in what should be a close match.
The 33 year old was once a top 15 player and has 4 ATP titles in his career, he’s been in the challenger and qualies wilderness for quite some time, but he appears to be experiencing a resurgence under the radar on European clay. He clearly has the experience to do well here, though mentality is always a question. Look for his solid game to take him to the semis and perhaps even farther.
Predictions
Semis:
Fognini d. Thiem
Mathieu d. Vesely
Thiem bageled Fognini in Munich on clay this year, but Fognini is a notorious tanker and is clearly far better than that. It’s hard for me to pick Thiem given how much tennis he’s played over the past couple of weeks, thus I have Fognini reaching his second straight final.
Vesely and Mathieu have never faced each other, it’s hard to predict who will perform in the bottom half, but I’m going with the qualifier to pull off a run and reach the final.
Final:
Fognini d. Mathieu
Fognini should have an edge in talent and form over PHM if this is the final, he’s always an unpredictable competitor, but he has an excellent chance to win his first title of the season and boost his ranking back up this week.
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