ATP Shanghai Masters Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Shanghai Rolex Masters features the best players left standing this season on the ATP tour battling it out for points and looking to influence the World Tour Finals standings. Here is your full preview with predictions.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal has won 12 straight and should extend that winning streak over Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini/Lucas Pouille to reach the quarterfinals. Pouille nearly beat Nadal in Beijing, and would love another bite at the cherry. Sam Querrey faces an in-form Yuichi Sugita, then a hopefully recovered Benoit Paire in round 2, or Frances Tiafoe. Querrey should fall to Beijing semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the third round, Dimitrov should beat Ze Zhang or Ryan Harrison to reach the third round. Nadal over Dimitrov in the quarters seems to be a sensible pick.
Nick Kyrgios/Marin Cilic and Kevin Anderson/Pablo Carreno Busta will decide the second quarterfinal section. Kyrgios, presuming he’s fit, should keep up his good form with a win over Steve Johnson, Di Wu/Jeremy Chardy, and Cilic (or Kyle Edmund/Jiri Vesely). Cilic isn’t a pushover, but Kyrgios has a higher ceiling. Anderson will look to serve past Tokyo finalist Adrian Mannarino, who will probably be tired out, Mischa Zverev or J.L. Struff will follow, with Carreno Busta taking on Albert Ramos or Joao Sousa. I have Anderson reaching the quarters before falling to Kyrgios.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer could be opposite the in-form David Goffin in the quarters, Goffin opens with Gilles Simon, Roberto Bautista Agut or Richard Gasquet are likely in the third round. I have RBA finding form to upset a tired Goffin, and then Federer winning in the quarterfinals. Federer will Diego Schwartzman or Jordan Thompson, and likely Jack Sock/Alex Dolgopolov in the third round.This is an interesting section but it likely will go as expected unless Schwartzman pulls off a shock.
The young guns section of the draw features Dominic Thiem and Alex Zverev. Thiem will take on Denis Shapovalov/Viktor Troicki, Zverev will face Andrey Rublev or Juan Martin Del Potro. Damir Dzumhur, John Isner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also in this section, I have Isner over Thiem and Zverev over Del Potro, with Zverv reaching the semis.
Predictions
Semis
Nadal d. Kyrgios
Federer d. Zverev
Final
Nadal d. Federer
Nadal is red hot right now and should be a clear favorite in Shanghai.
2017 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final Masters 1000 tournament of the North American Summer is in Mason, Ohio, of course. Tennis Atlantic will have on-site coverage as most of the top ATP players perform their final tune ups prior to the 2017 US Open in New York.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
August 13-20, 2017
Cincinnati, OH, USA
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,973,120
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (2)
2: Roger Federer (3)
3: Dominic Thiem (7)
4: Alexander Zverev (8)
5: Kei Nishikori (9)*
6: Milos Raonic (10)
7: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12)
Kei Nishikori withdrew after the draw was made with an injury, he joins both of last year’s finalists Andy Murray and Marin Cilic, and of course Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka as major outs for Cincy.
First round matchups to watch:
(9)David Goffin vs. Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios played well in Montreal and is 2-0 against Goffin. On hard court he has a great shot to pull an upset in this matchup, as Goffin isn’t setting the world on fire in terms of his form, having lost in round 2 in Montreal.
Robin Haase vs. Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino is 5-2 in his last seven matches, Haase comes off the semifinals in Montreal, as he had a fantastic week last week. Both players are playing some of the best tennis of their careers, Mannarino’s flat hitting likely gives him a slight edge.
Mischa Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
Zverev is struggling and has never beaten Verdasco (0-4), Verdasco is in poor form as well, so Zverev actually has a good chance to get his first career win against the Spaniard and find some confidence before the US Open.
Steve Johnson vs. David Ferrer
Johnson has lost three straight matches and has never beaten Ferrer. Playing on American hard courts, Johnson should make his best effort, but Ferrer has been finding ways to grind out wins lately.
(10)Tomas Berdych vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
These veteran big hitters have a tied h2h of 4-4, Berdych is playing well, presuming he’s fit. Del Potro has not been in great form on hard courts this summer. A healthy Berdych should be stronger than JMDP, but Del Potro could always rise to the occasion.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal will face either Richard Gasquet or qualifier J.P. Smith. Nadal is a former Cincy champ and should defeat Gasquet, Big server Gilles Muller beat Ryan Harrison in round 1, either qualifier Mikhail Youzhny or Albert Ramos awaits in round 2, Nadal over Muller looks to be a sensible pick in round 3. Look for Kevin Anderson vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round 3, Anderson faces off with qualifier Alex Dolgopolov in round 1, Anderson is 7-2 in his last two tournaments, he should beat Kyrgios or Goffin in round 2 in what would be an exciting matchup. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should find form and beat either Ivo Karlovic or Jiri Vesely, both of whom are struggling in their own right. Anderson has a clear edge over Tsonga and should reach the quarterfinals.
Sam Querrey or Dominic Thiem look well position to take advantage of the opening in the draw left by Kei Nishikori’s injury. Thiem should improve his struggling form against Daniil Medvedev or Fabio Fognini, Querrey will be tested by Mannarino or Haase after beating Stefan Kozlov. Querrey is playing some of the best tennis of his career though, and will be favored until he reaches Thiem, where I have him pulling the upset.
Look for Ferrer to beat Johnson, then a lucky loser, before running into Mischa Zverev in round 3. After Verdasco Zverev will face Pablo Carreno Busta or Paolo Lorenzi, Carreno Busta hasn’t been fit lately, thus I tip Zverev in round 2, with Ferrer set to capitalize the most in this section.
Bottom Half:
Seven-time Cincy champ Roger Federer should brush off a finals defeat in Montreal to defeat either Diego Schwartzman or Karen Khachanov. Schwartzman rose up to make quarters in Montreal and appears to be improving. Jack Sock should beat Yuichi Sugita and either qualifier Joao Sousa or Kyle Edmund. Sousa is in great form, but Sock on hard courts with his forehand should be too much. Federer over Sock is the pick for round 3.
Hyeon Chung or a struggling Feliciano Lopez will meet Grigor Dimitrov in round 2, Dimitrov should beat the next-gen Korean before facing most likely Tomas Berdych round 3. After Del Potro it will be Mitch Krueger or Benoit Paire against Berdych. I give Dimitrov a slight advantage to reach the quarterfinals and take advantage of a big opportunity this week.
Washington and Montreal champion Alexander Zverev is red-hot, Zverev should beat either Frances Tiafoe or his countryman Max Marterer in round 2. John Isner or Donald Young await in round 3, Isner just beat Viktor Troicki while Young faces Tommy Paul. Isner with his big serve could nip Zverev, but even with the fatigue factor the young gun should reach the quarters.
Despite his awful play last week in Montreal, I have a feeling Milos Raonic can turn things around in Cincy. Borna Coric or a struggling Nikoloz Basilashvili will be his round 2 opponent, Roberto Bautista Agut should beat Jared Donaldson and then Gael Monfils (or Chris Eubanks) in round 2. Monfils lost to RBA last week in Montreal, and the Spaniard’s good form should continue. I have Raonic beating Bautista Agut in the third round.
Dark Horse: Adrian Mannarino
If Mannarino can beat Haase and Querrey he could break out in the section that is missing Nishikori. The Frenchman was excellent last week in Montreal and is playing well enough to pull off that feat and put up another great Masters performance.
Predictions
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Querrey d. Ferrer
Raonic d. Zverev
Federer d. Dimitrov
I have Zverev running out of steam in the quarters, while Querrey should break through to Masters semi.
Semis Nadal d. Querrey
Federer d. Raonic
Look for Nadal and Federer to battle for world #1 this week, with Federer coming out on top, largely due to his success in Cincy over the years.
2016 ATP Shanghai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 Asian Swing has arrived at its main event, the Masters 1000 level Shanghai Masters tournament in Shanghai, China. Here is a preview, with predictions, of the best men’s tennis tournament in Asia.
Shanghai Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Shanghai, China
October 9-16, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $5,452,985
Top 8 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP Rankings in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (4)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Gael Monfils (8)
7: Tomas Berdych (9)
8: Marin Cilic (11)
Dominic Thiem and Kei Nishikori are notably absent, Borna Coric and Alexandr Dolgopolov are also skipping out.
First round matchups to watch:
(14)Richard Gasquet vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Gasquet has never lost to current Beijing finalist Dimitrov (5-0), and he reached the final in Shenzen on the Asian swing. Dimitrov has been playing some great tennis this Fall though, and should test the Frenchman. Given the fatigue factor, I still favor Gasquet to extend his h2h record.
(15)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Bernard Tomic
Tomic beat RBA at Wimbledon this year but he’s lost two straight matches and looks to have lost his way again. The Spaniard was a semifinalist in St. Petersburg, and he should be able to win this given Tomic’s poor recent play.
Alexander Zverev vs. John Isner
Zverev is a red hot 7-1 since Wimbledon, Isner is playing for the first time since a third round exit at the US Open. The American should be well rested, and Zverev will have a tough time breaking his serve, but the German has made rapid improvements in his game this year while Isner has been disappointing. Look for Zverev to continue his momentum and snatch a win.
(10)David Ferrer vs. Feliciano Lopez
Ferrer has won seven straight against Lopez and should roll in this contest over the struggling Spaniard who may not be fit. Still it’s an interesting style contrast, and with Ferrer coming off a semifinal loss in Beijing, it will be interesting to see if he can continue his improved play. The veteran has had his worst season in years and needs to finish strong.
Gilles Simon vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Simon and PCB have split meetings this year. The Frenchman is a more accomplished veteran but I’m tipping the Beijing quarterfinalist PCB in an upset. He’s improved his hard court game by leaps and bounds this year and has positive momentum after upsetting Tomic and Gasquet last week.
(11)David Goffin vs. (WC)Juan Martin Del Potro
Goffin battles hard and he’s into the final in Tokyo, but Del Potro has the ability to blow him off the court with his power game. The Argentine is now up to #66 in the world, but he still needed a wild card here and could really do some damage if he’s fit.
Djokovic’s Quarter:
Novak Djokovic is playing again for the first time since the US Open. The World #1 is a three time and defending Shanghai Champion and he’ll start his effort to repeat against either Fabio Fognini or Albert Ramos. Fognini dominates Ramos in the h2h but isn’t in great form, so even if he wins in round 1, Novak should win their match. Dimitrov/Gasquet will face Ivo Karlovic or a qualifier in round 2. Karlovic could really trouble Novak in the third round, but I feel Gasquet will slip his way into round 3 before falling to Djokovic.
Tomas Berdych will face Marcel Granollers or a qualifier with current Tokyo finalist Nick Kyrgios slated to face him in a scintillating third round matchup. Kyrgios opens with Sam Querrey, and then Ze Zhang or a qualifier in round 2. Both players are in good form, but I favor Berdych as he’ll be pushing to qualify for London.
Nadal’s Quarter:
Beijing quarterfinalist Rafael Nadal has never won Shanghai, and could really use a pair of routine wins over Viktor Troicki (or a qualifier), and most likely Bautista Agut to gain some momentum. Tomic, a qualifier, or a struggling Stephane Robert are also in this section, but it’s clearly Nadal’s to lose.
The section below Rafa is stacked, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic, and Zverev/Isner all feature. The Tokyo semifinalist Cilic gets the bye, and is in the quest to qualify for London. I have him defeating Zverev in round 2, and then doing the same over Tsonga, who should beat Florian Mayer and Janko Tipsarevic or Philipp Kohlschreiber. Tsonga is playing for the first time since the US Open, while neither Tipsarevic or Kohlschreiber are playing their best.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Stan Wawrinka will face Federico Delbonis or a qualifier, with Carreno Busta likely to make round 3 as long as he beats Simon. Pablo Cuevas or Di Wu are not as good on hard courts. Wawrinka should ease his way into the 4th round.
Milos Raonic suffered an ankle injury in Beijing, and barring a shocking recovery, if he plays on I still think he’ll lose to a struggling Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, presuming GGL extends his winning streak over Paolo Lorenzi. Ferrer should dispatch Jack Sock, along with Lopez, then GGL (or Raonic) to win this section.
Murray’s Quarter:
Andy Murray will face Steve Johnson or Martin Klizan in his first match, Lucas Pouille looks to be the toughest competition in his section and would love a crack at Murray in round 3. The young Frenchman will need to beat Fernando Verdasco, and a qualifier or Nicolas Almagro to get that far. Murray is in the Beijing final currently and his form looks good enough to beat Johnson, and then Pouille in round 3. Neither Spaniard in this section is playing well.
Gael Monfils will face Kevin Anderson or Chinese wild card Zhe Li, he should win that match over Anderson before facing Del Potro in round 3. Joao Sousa or Benoit Paire are also here, Paire has been tanking this Fall while Sousa reached the Tokyo quarters. I see Del Potro defeating Monfils to post another solid ATP run. Monfils may be tired after reaching the semis in Tokyo.
Dark Horse: Alexander Zverev
Zverev could reach the quarterfinals and face off with Nadal if he can upset Cilic and Tsonga in ensuing matches. The young German is has risen to great heights this year and continues to improve with every match. He is a future top 10 player, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready to make a run in Shanghai.
Predictions
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Berdych
Cilic d. Nadal
Wawrinka d. Ferrer
Del Potro d. Murray
Djokovic and Wawrinka should be favorites to reach the semis, Del Potro beat Murray in the Davis Cup and given the fatigue factor I see him making another Semi. Nadal was shaky in Beijing, and Cilic could really use a run to the semis for his ranking points so I see him upsetting Rafa.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Del Potro d. Wawrinka
I’m bullish on Del Potro despite Stan winning their US Open match, while Djokovic should reach this final.
Final:
Djokovic d. Del Potro
Djokovic would be troubled by Wawrinka, but I still think he’s a more consistent returner than Del Potro and can find a way to win.
2016 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The field at the 2016 Western and Southern Open is still somewhat up in the air due to the Olympic games finishing up, but it’s a Masters 1000 event, and the final big tune up for most ATP players before the 2016 US Open. Here is a preview, with predictions.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, OH, USA
August 14-21, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,362,385
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (2)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (5)
4: Milos Raonic (6)
5: Kei Nishikori (7)
6: Tomas Berdych (8)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Dominic Thiem (10)
I honestly don’t expect Andy Murray to play here, given he’s in the Olympic final down in Rio. Djokovic, and of course Federer are also absent here, as Novak struggled in Rio and needed a break. American Jack Sock is the only other notable player missing from the draw. We could also see Nadal and Nishikori skip because they are contesting the Bronze medal match at the Olympics.
Both hard court matches between this pair have been close. Dolgo has lost four straight and has had a miserable summer. Anderson has lost a pair of matches in his last two touranaments and has had a horrible season while struggling to stay healthy. Anderson is the favorite, and with both players slumping before the US Open, they badly need a win.
(9)Gael Monfils vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Monfils is 2-1 in the h2h against PCB and he’s a remarkable 12-2 since Wimbledon, all on hard courts. The Frenchman is a US Open dark horse, and he narrowly lost out at the medal round in the Olympics. PCB showed surprising form, reaching the semis in Cabo on hard courts, and could give Monfils a bit of a test in the opening round.
(14)Nick Kyrgios vs. Lucas Pouille
The Atlanta champion Kyrgios should serve his way past fellow young gun Pouille, but Pouille is steadier than Kyrgios, and has had a great season in his own right. These young talents are likely to face off for years to come, and this could be a great match.
Opelka reached the semis in Atlanta on US soil, and also won a round in Cabo. He’s burst onto the scene, with a game that matches fellow tall players John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic most notably. This young American is looking to continue his momentum on the ATP level against the veteran Frenchman Chardy who has lost three straight and hasn’t been healthy recently. An upset looks to be in the cards.
Gilles Simon vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Simon won their first four matches, but Dimitrov has won two of the last three, which all took place this season. Dimitrov was bounced early in the Olympics, but he did reach the quarters in Toronto and has shown spotty form. The Bulgarian is more talented than Simon, but Simon is more consistent. It’s a match that is tough to predict, but I give Dimitrov a slight edge.
Murray’s section:
Andy Murray has won Cincy twice, and as mentioned, I could very well see him being replaced by a lucky loser. His first opponent will be either Juan Monaco, or more likely the red hot Cabo champion Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Karlovic has been playing great, and has two ATP titles this summer. Presuming he’s not too fatigued, I’m going with an upset and having him knock off Murray if he plays, simply due to the Rio hangover factor. The Anderson/Dolgo winner is struggling, which means Richard Gasquet should probably win his first two matches since Wimbledon (he opens against a qualifier) to reach the third round and setup a match with Karlovic or Murray that he has a good shot at winning. Presuming he’s fit, I have Karlovic getting past Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori reached the Bronze medal match in Rio and may withdrawal as well, he’d open with Taylor Fritz or a qualifier, and I have David Goffin emerging from his section to reach the quarters. Goffin will face Janko Tipsarevic if he plays, Tipsarevic comes off a strong challenger showing across the world in China. Joao Sousa or Bernard Tomic will follow for Goffin, both are struggling. Goffin won a pair of matches in the Olympics and should get past Sousa. I have Fritz reaching round 3, because I’m unsure what is going to happen with Nishikori.
Raonic’s section:
Milos Raonic should benefit from the top half of the draw opening up because of the Olympics. The Canadian #1 skipped Rio, and should be able to get past John Isner or Fabio Fognini, and then Roberto Bautista Agut or Alex Zverev to reach the quarters. Raonic lost in the quarters in Toronto, and he’d like to do better than that this tournament. Isner reached the final in Atlanta, but Raonic plays the same game at a higher level. RBA has been consistently solid, and he reached the quarters in Rio, I have Zverev advancing because he should be fresher though. The German faces a qualifier while RBA faces serve and volley expert Nicolas Mahut.
Monfils should dominate his section and reach the quarters, presuming he’s healthy. That would setup a Toronto rematch with Raonic most likely. After round 1, the Frenchman would face either Marcos Baghdatis or Vasek Pospisil, with Dominic Thiem likely to follow in round 3, as long as Thiem beats a qualifier. The Austrian hasn’t been healthy recently as his body has been breaking down after a grueling schedule. Monfils thus has the edge. He dispatched Pospisil in Rio.
Nadal’s section:
If Rafael Nadal plays after a grueling run in both singles and doubles in Rio, he’d face Pablo Cuevas or Sam Querrey in his first match. Given he was still taking it easy on his wrist prior to Rio, I’m relatively confident he’ll withdrawal after the Bronze medal match, but if he plays, he should lose to Nick Kyrgios round 3, if Querrey doesn’t knock him off. Borna Coric and Benoit Paire are also in this section. The young gun Coric would love to challenge Kyrgios but I don’t see him doing that with his poor recent form, while the erratic Paire was kicked off the French Olympic team for bad behavior. Querrey also hasn’t been playing well, meaning Kyrgios is the clear favorite.
I’d be surprised if a fresh Tomas Berdych can’t do something with his open section. Berdych gets a qualifier or Marcel Granollers first up, with most likely Marin Cilic to follow in round 3, presuming Cilic beats Viktor Troicki and the winner of Fernando Verdasco/Albert Ramos. Troicki has been in miserable form, but he’s won five straight against Cilic, who has been on and off this season. Verdasco simply isn’t as good as Cilic these days, and thus I have it Berdych over Cilic for the quarterfinal spot. The h2h is 6-4 in favor of the Czech.
Wawrinka’s section:
Stan Wawrinka reached the semis in Toronto, and despite it not being a standout year for him, he stands alone for Swiss tennis right now with Federer out, and he should dispatch Jared Donaldson/Nicolas Almagro, and Feliciano Lopez (or a qualifier), or the Dimitrov/Simon winner to reach the quarters. I have Dimitrov getting past a likely fatigued Lopez, who reached the finals in Cabo, to reach round 3. Wawrinka should power past him at that stage.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Opelka or Chardy, followed by most likely a struggling David Ferrer in round 3. I have Steve Johnson beating Federico Delbonis, and then upsetting Ferrer, after Ferrer beats Julien Benneteau, to reach the third round however. Ferrer has been in terrible form in recent weeks. The Olympic quarterfinalist Johnson is playing on home soil, is solid on hard courts, and faces a Ferrer and Tsonga who are struggling right now. Although he’s not the favorite, I have him reaching the quarters. He’s beaten Tsonga before.
Dark Horses: Ivo Karlovic and Steve Johnson
Karlovic is always dangerous with his serve, and he’s found form at the right time. If the veteran gets a fast court to play on, he could go as far as the semifinals. Johnson had a great run in the Olympics, and I have him breaking through to a Masters quarterfinal opposite Wawrinka.
Predictions
Quarters Goffin d. Karlovic
Monfils d. Raonic
Kyrgios d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Johnson
Goffin and Karlovic have never played, however Goffin has had a solid season and his consistency in the Masters tournaments should be rewarded with another semifinal. Monfils beat Raonic in Toronto, Kyrgios is in better form than Berdych, and Wawrinka should be the strongest player in his half. After losing to Berdych at the AO early this year, Kyrgios has dominated him twice on hard courts.
Semis Monfils d. Goffin
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios
Monfils is a clear favorite vs. Goffin given the h2h, Wawrinka and Kyrgios have split meetings in their careers, however I give Wawrinka the consistency edge.
These veterans haven’t met since 2011, and much has changed since then. Monfils is playing some of the best tennis of his career, and despite having never won a title of this stature, he’s playing like he can win one in recent weeks.
2016 ATP Rome Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Rome is the final Masters stop on the ATP tour before Roland Garros 2016, as most of the top players will travel to partake in tennis, Italian style.
Internazionali BNL D’Italia
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Rome, Italy
May 8-15, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €3,748,925
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Kei Nisihkori (6)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
8: Tomas Berdych (8)
Marin Cilic, John Isner, and Gilles Simon are the only notables missing from this year’s ATP Rome tournament.
Zverev slipped past Dimitrov in Indian Wells this year, and they have a split 1-1 h2h. This will be the first meeting on clay between the young gun German, and the Bulgarian trying to get back to the top of his game. Zverev comes off the semis in Munich, and I have him as the favorite over the Istanbul finalist Dimitrov. Dimitrov exited early in Madrid, and consistency has not been his strength.
(13)Dominic Thiem vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Thiem and Dolgo have a split h2h, with Thiem likely to have the advantage on clay. Dolgopolov is 3-2 on clay this year, winning the matches he should based on ranking. Thiem was a finalist in Munich, but was promptly upset by Del Potro in Madrid. He should be good to go for Rome success though.
Albert Ramos vs. Sam Querrey
Ramos has a pair of wins over Querrey, and is a mediocre 8-9 on clay this year, even though it’s his best surface. He’s 3-2 over his last five matches on clay. Querrey is 4-2 on clay over his last two tournaments, and won a pair of matches on clay, both of which were upsets. Those upset wins inspired a lot of talk in the tennis world about improved American results on clay, and we’ll see if Querrey can continue the success.
Mayer lost his opening match in Madrid, while Goffin has been rather poor this year on clay, going 3-3. Goffin should be far better based on ranking and skill, but Mayer is credible on clay and Goffin could be vulnerable to continually struggling and getting knocked off again.
Djokovic’s quarter:
The four-time and defending Rome champion Novak Djokovic is in the Madrid final this week, and he’ll be looking for the Madrid/Rome Masters double. Novak will start with a qualifier, and either Gael Monfils or Pablo Cuevas is his likely third round opponent. Monfils opens with a struggling Thomaz Bellucci, while Cuevas faces Nicolas Mahut. Cuevas just slipped past Monfils in a third set tiebreak in Madrid, going on to lose in the third round. I have him repeating that feat and falling to Djokovic in round 3 in Rome.
Madrid semifinalist and seven time Rome champion Rafael Nadal is likely to face Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Nadal will need to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber (or a qualifier), and either Milos Raonic or Nick Kyrgios to get that far though. Nadal has a pair of clay titles this spring, before losing to Andy Murray in Madrid. Kohlschreiber lost to Nadal in Barcelona, and won Munich. The match between Kyrgios and Raonic should feature some fierce power hitting in the second round. Raonic has to beat Italian Marco Cecchinato for the second time in recent weeks. He was a quarterfinalist in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing to top 3 players both times. Kyrgios is 5-2 on clay as of late and reached the quarters in Madrid. He opens with wild card Salvatore Caruso, a little known 23 year old. Kyrgios has won his last two meetings against Raonic, after losing the first two, including a match on clay. It’s a tough match to pick, but I have Raonic slipping past Kyrgios due to his consistency. Nadal should beat Raonic (or Kyrgios) given it’s clay.
Federer’s Quarter:
Roger Federer has four career finals, but no career titles in Rome. After pulling out of Madrid, he’s unlikely to be much of a factor in this tournament, and in fact I have Zverev upsetting him to reach the third round, after Zverev defeats Dimitrov. If it’s not Zverev, Dominic Thiem should defeat Federer, after beating Dolgopolov, and Joao Sousa. Sousa was a quarterfinalist in Madrid and should defeat 20 year old wild card Lorenzo Sonego, who is making his ATP debut. Thiem beat Zverev in Munich.
Madrid semifinalist and Barcelona finalist Kei Nishikori is the favorite to reach the quarters in this section as well. He should have no issues defeating either Viktor Troicki or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili in round 2, and then Richard Gasquet once again in round 3, just as he did in straight sets in Madrid. Gasquet should beat Julien Benneteau, and Andreas Seppi/Vasek Pospisil given the difference in ranking and form on this surface.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka is just 2-2 on clay this season, and lost his opening match in Madrid. At this rate he’s going to struggle to remain a top 5 player. He should defeat his friend Benoit Paire in his first match though, presuming Paire defeats Bernard Tomic, and adds to the Australian’s freefall in recent weeks. Paire has a couple of clay semifinals in recent weeks, but lost his opening match in Madrid. The winner of Paire/Wawrinka should decide the quarter, as Feliciano Lopez/Steve Johnson/Juan Monaco are unlikely to stop them in the third round. Lopez has never defeated Kevin Anderson (0-3), but Anderson has been in horrible form, while Lopez is 2-3 over his last five matches. Lopez should beat Anderson, then Monaco, before losing to Wawrinka.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer may duel for a quarterfinal spot as well, if Italian favorite Fabio Fognini doesn’t make a run himself in Rome. Tsonga is 5-4 on clay this season, and lost his second match in Madrid. Ivo Karlovic opens with a qualifier and the winner will face Tsonga round 2. Ferrer opens with a qualifier as well, while Fognini will face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, before Ferrer. Ferrer lost in the third round of Madrid, while Fognini was a semifinalist in Munich before losing round 2 in Madrid. I have Ferrer slipping past Fognini given the 9-0 h2h. Ferrer has two clay wins over Tsonga, but I have Tsonga winning because Ferrer doesn’t seem to be the same player he was at this point.
Murray’s Quarter
The current Madrid finalist Andy Murray should continue his recent run of form with a victory over Borna Coric/qualifier, and then a third round win over Roberto Bautista Agut. Murray isn’t in an overly difficult section, as RBA opens with Paolo Lorenzi, with Jeremy Chardy/qualifier to follow. RBA has third round results in both Monte Carlo, and Madrid, this year on clay. He’s the favorite of the players who could face Murray round 3.
Tomas Berdych is the favorite to face Murray in the quarters, the Czech needs only to defeat Querrey/Ramos and then Goffin/Mayer or Jack Sock/Guido Pella to get that far. Sock’s 5-2 record on clay as of late should move to 6-2 with a solid win over Pella. I then have Sock upsetting Goffin, before falling to Berdych in round 3. Berdych is 2-0 against Sock.
I’m not going to count Kyrgios as a dark horse given what a strong player he’s recognized as these days, seeding aside. Zverev needs to upset Dimitrov, Federer, and Thiem, but he could emerge as an unlikely quarterfinalist from the top half.
Paire has a win over Wawrinka this year, though Wawrinka dominates the h2h overall over his good friend. With Wawrinka slumping, and Paire capable of solid play on clay, we could see an upset that ends up with Paire in the quarterfinals or better.
Predictions
Quarterfinals Djokovic d. Nadal
Nishikori d. Thiem
Tsonga d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Berdych
Djokovic and Nishikori are a cut above the competition right now, Wawrinka has a good record against Tsonga on clay, but he’s been struggling as of late, Murray just steamrolled Berdych in Madrid.
Semifinals Djokovic d. Nishikori
Murray d. Tsonga
Look for a reprisal of the Madrid final in Rome, Murray is the best player in the bottom half, and Djokovic should beat Nishikori again in the top half to reach the final.
2016 ATP Miami Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The second Masters tournament of the season starts today in Miami as the ATP World Tour follows the sun and the world’s best players will bask in the beautiful South Florida weather this time of year.
Miami Open presented by Itau
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Miami, FL, USA
March 23-April 3, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $6,134,605
Top 8 seeds (top 32 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Kei Nishikori (6)
7: Tomas Berdych (7)
8: David Ferrer (8)
The highest ranked players absent in Miami are Kevin Anderson and Bernard Tomic. Fabio Fognini, Ivo Karlovic, Martin Klizan, and Philipp Kohlschreiber are also notably absent.
The young Japanese player Nishioka has an ATP quarterfinal this season (Memphis), and qualified for Miami. His speed and baseline consistency has earned him two previous wins over the American Donaldson. He enters this young gun battle coming off of a semifinal in the Irving challenger and this one should be a competitive contest of potential future top 20 players.
Mikhail Youzhny vs. Ernests Gulbis
Youzhny has won three straight matches over Gulbis, after dropping three straight contests prior to that. This is their first meeting since 2014, and both players have suffered a severe decline to the fringe of the ATP level. The veteran Russian earned his first ATP win of the season after a challenger winning streak, as he won a round in Indian Wells. Gulbis has lost two straight, and has just two ATP wins this season. Both are talented, and earning ATP match wins is essential in a match like this.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Gilles Muller
Verdasco and Muller have split hard court meetings. The veteran Spaniard reached the third round in Indian Wells, while Muller has been in shaky form as of late. His serve and volley game is just 3-4 over his last seven matches. Muller should be a slight favorite, but I have Verdasco pulling this match off.
(Q)Mikhail Kukushkin vs. Brian Baker
Brian Baker will be playing his first ATP match since the Australian Open, as the veteran American continues his comeback attempt after multiple serious injuries. He’ll be a fan favorite as he puts his skills up to the test against Mikhail Kukushkin. The qualifier is a solid player and should prevail, but it’s a good form test for Baker.
Lukas Rosol vs. (Q)Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Herbert is bidding for the top 100. He qualified in both IW and Miami, reached the third round in Melbourne, and won a challenger title this year. The Frenchman is a bit of a doubles specialist, but he has singles skills. Rosol reached a challenger quarterfinal but hasn’t been in great form recently. I would not be surprised to see the Czech get upset in this match.
Five time and defending champion Novak Djokovic is bidding to overtake Rafael Nadal and become the player with the most ever ATP Masters series titles. Fresh off a victory in Indian Wells the world #1 will go up against either Kyle Edmund or Jiri Vesely. With Vesely on a three match losing streak, and Edmund unimpressive right now as well, Djokovic should cruise into round 3. The seed set to face Djokovic would be Joao Sousa, however the Portugese #1 is currently on a six match losing streak, and the big serving Canadian Vasek Pospisil should beat Diego Schwartzman, and Sousa to reach round 3.
The rising Dominic Thiem won a pair of matches in Indian Wells and he should be able to add at least one more win this spring with an opening match defeat of Sam Groth or Victor Estrella. Estrella is staring down a three match losing streak, while Groth has lost seven straight. Thiem should then get a rematch of a match in Miami last year against Feliciano Lopez. Lopez opens with the Nishioka/Donaldson winner, and won a pair of matches in IW as well. Thiem is 3-1 against Lopez but dropped his last meeting against the Spaniard. Both are in good form, but Thiem has been a cut above most players on tour this year.
#7 seed Tomas Berdych and #10 seed Richard Gasquet are on track for a quarterfinal meeting in a competitive section. Berdych will open with Rajeev Ram or Evgeny Donskoy, and is likely to face young gun Alexander Zverev in round 3. The German opens with wild card Michael Mmoh, with #31 seed Steve Johnson to follow. Zverev reached the round of 16 in IW with three wins, while Berdych earned two IW wins. Berdych won a five setter in Davis Cup action over Zverev recently, and should have an edge. The American Johnson could spoil Zverev’s success however.
Gasquet also won a pair of matches in IW, and presuming he’s healthy, he should dispatch Albert Ramos or qualifier Alejandro Gonzalez in his first match. A struggling Benoit Paire will face Youzhny/Gulbis in round 2 for the right to face Gasquet in round 3. Paire has been poor this year and could well get upset, however I have Gasquet defeating him in round 3.
Federer’s quarter:
Roger Federer has two Miami titles, but he hasn’t won the tournament since 2006. Federer is making his spring debut after a knee injury forced him out after the Australian Open. One of the most exciting early round matchups should be his contest against Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro will need to defeat his countryman Guido Pella who reached the third round in IW. Del Potro has played well enough in his comeback thus far, but Federer is likely to win their first meeting since the end of 2013 season. Jeremy Chardy is in Federer’s seed line, but he has lost three straight and the Verdasco/Muller winner is likely to be Federer’s third round opponent. Federer is 5-0 against Muller and 6-0 against Verdasco, thus he should advance presuming he’s not rusty.
#15 seed David Goffin is set to face #19 seed Viktor Troicki in round 3. Goffin was a surprise semifinalist in IW with wins over Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. The Belgian is having a good season and his ballstriking should out do either Bjorn Fratangelo or Marcel Granollers, both of whom are qualifiers. Granollers won a challenger title last week, while Fratangelo took a set off Novak Djokovic in IW. Troicki has lost two matches in a row, but I don’t see him losing to young Russian Andrey Rublev who comes off a challenger quarterfinal. Rublev opens with Inigo Cervantes, a Spanish journeyman. Goffin has a pair of hard court wins over Troicki, and given his better recent form he should safely reach the quarterfinals.
#6 David Ferrer should be on upset alert against qualifier Taylor Fritz in his first match. The Spaniard is just 11-6 this season, and Fritz will be in good form after defeating Italian veteran Simone Bolelli. Fritz isn’t entirely consistent yet, but the talented young gun has the skillset needed for a marquee win. Fritz can make a deep run with wins over Ferrer, and one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Teymuraz Gabashvili/Lucas Pouille. I have Pouille handing Gabashvili his fourth straight loss, and then upsetting a mediocre Garcia-Lopez to reach the third round. Ferrer, or the dark horse Fritz should advance from there.
#11 seed Marin Cilic and #18 seed Gilles Simon are set to face off in round 3. Cilic reached the quarterfinals in IW, while Simon is a pedestrian 6-6 this year. Cilic will face either Dennis Novikov or Dusan Lajovic first, while Simon will face Ivan Dodig or Juan Monaco. The veteran Dodig, a recent challenger semifinalist, could upset Simon, and he should beat Monaco, a loser of three straight. Simon is 4-1 against Cilic in the h2h, but given their recent form, Cilic is a clear favorite.
Two-time Miami champion and resident Andy Murray was stunned by Federico Delbonis in Indian Wells, but he’s still 9-2 on the season, and with a good record in Miami, he has a chance to have a good tournament. His first opponent will be a tough one, Borna Coric should deny Denis Istomin his first ATP win of the season again, to setup a match with Murray. Murray is 2-1 against Coric in the h2h, and he’ll be the favorite, although Borna won a pair of IW matches. Murray’s challenging draw will get no easier in round 3. He could get a rematch with Delbonis, but Delbonis would need to beat Elias Ymer and Grigor Dimitrov, who is 12-6 on the season. Dimitrov is a better hard court player and likely advances. Murray has won his last three meetings against Dimitrov, it’s a tough test, but the world #2 should prevail.
Murray has the toughest draw in the tournament, as #16 seed Gael Monfils is his likely round of 16 opponent. Monfils opens with serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut or qualifier Tatsuma Ito, The Indian Wells quarterfinalist is 12-4 this season and should defeat Mahut/Ito and one of Pablo Cuevas/Pablo Carreno Busta/John Millman to reach the fourth round. Carreno just lost to Monfils in IW, while Cuevas is mediocre on hard courts and Millman is struggling.
Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will need to navigate challenging sections if they are going to face off in the round of 16. Nishikori will face the Rosol/Herbert winner after reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. Alexandr Dolgopolov should follow in round 3 after defeating Andreas Seppi or a struggling Donald Young. Nishikori is 3-0 against Dolgopolov and in better form, thus he’s the favorite.
The IW quarterfinalist Tsonga should defeat his countryman Paul-Henri Mathieu, a recently challenger finalist, in his first match. PHM opens with a struggling Santiago Giraldo. Tsonga would then be slated to face #17 seed Roberto Bautista Agut in round 3. RBA will be look to move to 17-5 this season with a win over recent challenger finalist Aljaz Bedene. Bedene opens with Roberto Carballes Baena. After two wins over RBA last season, Tsonga lost to him in Auckland this year. It should be a great match, but I give the Frenchman a slight edge to prevail.
Wawrinka’s quarter:
Stan Wawrinka is 15-3 on the season, and he’s set to face Andrey Kuznetsov just a few days after defeating him in Indian Wells. The Russian first has to defeat lucky loser Rogerio Dutra Silva. Though he was somewhat unimpressive in IW, the Swiss should dispatch either Sam Querrey or Adrian Mannarino in round 3. Mannarino opens with Illya Marchenko, and has a 1-0 h2h over Querrey. The higher ranked American will likely defeat the in form Frenchman on U.S. soil however. Wawrinka is unlikely to want to face Mannarino after losing to him in Miami last year, he’s 4-1 against Querrey.
John Isner vs. Nick Kyrgios is a highly anticipated third round matchup if it takes place. Isner won a pair of matches in IW and he should be better than his countryman Tim Smyczek, or Tommy Paul in round 2. Both are qualifiers and Smyczek just beat Paul in IW. Kyrgios is likely to face Marcos Baghdatis, presuming the veteran defeats qualifier Benjamin Becker in round 1. I have Baghdatis pulling an upset over Kyrgios in their first meeting. Nick was terrible last week in an opening match IW loss, Baghdatis is well rested, and his experienced and steady attacking play may drive Kyrgios mad. Isner over Baghdatis (6-0 h2h) is my pick for the third round. The American #1 Isner is also 2-0 against Kyrgios.
IW Semifinalist Rafael Nadal, who has never won the title in Miami, will open with Leonardo Mayer or Damir Dzumhur. Mayer is 4-1 in his last five matches but he shouldn’t trouble a seemingly in-form Rafa on hard courts. Nadal should improve to 14-5 on the season with wins over Mayer and the winner of Baker/Kukushkin or Thomaz Bellucci in round 3. I have Kukushkin slipping past a struggling Bellucci before falling to Nadal.
IW finalist Milos Raonic may not be entirely healthy after a great week in IW, but a painful final drubbing. The Canadian #1 opens with either Hyeon Chung (2-0 h2h vs. Kudla) or Denis Kudla and both are credible enough on hard courts to exploit an upset chance if Raonic is wobbly. Still I have Milos serving his way into a third round match with American favorite Jack Sock. Sock opens with serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky, or wild card Nicolas Jarry in round 2. With Sock just 6-5 on the season, and just 1-6 in his career against Raonic, Milos will be a heavy favorite to reach the round of 16. Since Sock upset Raonic in Memphis back in 2013, the Canadian has won six straight matches against him.
Zverev would need to upset Berdych, but the German young gun is rising and he could go as far as the quarterfinals. Fritz needs to upset Ferrer, but he has a great chance at least the roudn of 16, and possibly the quarters as well. Sock could exploit any weakness in the Raonic section to make a run to at least the round of 16, and Coric will look for his second career win against Murray. Grigor Dimitrov and Federico Delbonis could also make noise in the Murray section, as Delbonis did last week, though Murray is still the most likely to survive.
Predictions
Round of 16:
Djokovic d. Thiem (1-0 h2h)
Berdych d. Gasquet (6-7 h2h)
Federer d. Goffin (4-0 h2h)
Cilic d. Fritz
Nadal d. Raonic (6-1 h2h)
Isner d. Wawrinka (2-1 h2h)
Nishikori d. Tsonga (5-2 h2h)
Murray d. Monfils (4-2 h2h)
It’s hard to see Djokovic losing to Thiem, Berdych likely has a slight edge on Gasquet given the surface. Federer could be rusty, but he’s always handled Goffin well, Cilic should beat Fritz or Ferrer. Nadal could lose to Raonic, but his h2h is good, Isner should slip past Wawrinka if Stan plays like he did last week. Nishikori beat Tsonga this year in Melbourne, and Murray should have an edge in Miami over Monfils.
Quarters: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Cilic
Nadal d. Isner
Murray d. Nishikori
Djokovic should have no problem earning his second win of the year over Berdych, Federer hasn’t faced Cilic since losing to him at the 2014 US Open, but he still should be good enough given his 5-1 h2h. Nadal has never lost to Isner, and his IW showing gives him hope. Murray is vulnerable but he just beat Nishikori in Davis Cup play.
Semis: Djokovic d. Federer
Murray d. Nadal
Federer doesn’t have it in him to beat Djokovic at this point, Murray should be better on hard courts vs. Rafa if he can survive a murderers row of opponents.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Hard to see Djokovic losing a final as he’s won eight of them in a row. Look for him to take the Masters titles record with a victory in Miami.
Tennis Atlantic 