Harrison wins First ATP Title in Memphis, Dolgopolov Breaks Slump with Buenos Aires Triumph Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won his biggest tour title since the 2014 Canadian Masters with a 4-6 6-4 6-1 victory against David Goffin in the final of Rotterdam. The Frenchman moved well and played attacking tennis after early struggles against Goffin. Besides the final, he didn’t drop a set all week as he beat young gun Stefanos Tsitispas, Gilles Muller, Marin Cilic, and Tomas Berdych, three big hitters in a row to reach the final. Tsonga was much more agile than his opponents, and also more aggressive when it counted this week.
Goffin did not have an easy week, but remarkably made his second straight ATP final with wins over Andrey Kuznetsov, Robin Haase, Grigor Dimitrov, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Haase and Dimitrov both took a set against him, the win over Dimitrov was impressive given that the tired Bulgarian had defeated him in the Sofia final just a few days prior. Herbert, normally at his best in doubles, surprisingly reached the semfinals, emerging from a strong field to once again demonstrate he has plenty of talent for singles, but hasn’t always put it together.
Ivan Dodig and Marcel Granollers defeated Wesley Koolhof and Matwe Middelkoop in the doubles final, preventing the home fans from enjoying the Dutch pairing winning the doubles title at home in Holland.
It’s been a long road for the former ATP young gun Ryan Harrison. After years in the challenger wilderness, he has broken through once again at the ATP level, and he did so in a memorable way, defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili for his first ever ATP title 6-1 6-4. Harrison has improved his control of his emotions, is playing more aggressively, much more tactically, and mashing his forehand well. It showed against Basilashvili, and all week in Memphis.
Harrison hasn’t dropped a set in 10 matches, he entered Memphis with a challenger title under his belt, and quickly blazed past Konstantin Kravchuk, Sam Querrey, Damir Dzumhur, and Donald Young to reach the final, having improved his game even from a solid 2016, and added new quirks since emerging on tour years ago as a teenager.
Georgia’s #1 Basilashvili has now made two career ATP finals, he also didn’t drop a set on Memphis slow hard courts. He’s now 7-2 in his last two tournaments after wins against Jordan Thompson, Ivo Karlovic, Matt Ebden, and Mikhail Kukushkin. This week in Memphis we were treated to great performances by a pair of rising players.
Brian Baker and Nikola Mektic prevented Harrison from pulling off a brace, as the American/Croatian pair defeated Harrison and fellow Yank Steve Johnson in the doubles final.
ATP Buenos Aires
A loser of five straight finals heading into his match against Alexandr Dolgopolov, Kei Nishikori presumed he’d end the day as an ATP champion for the first time in a year. The human highlight reel Dolgopolov came to play though, his shotmaking pressured a passive Nishikori, and ended in an upset 7-6 6-4 victory for Ukraine’s #1. Nishikori played not to lose against a player ranked outside of the top 50, and in the process dropped his sixth straight ATP final. Dolgopolov had won just one match in months, but now leaves Argentina in great form that could allow him to return being a regular ATP top 30 player.
Dolgopolov played his best tennis in at least a year and now has three ATP titles in his career. Dolgo defeated Janko Tipsarevic, Pablo Cuevas, Gerald Melzer, and Pablo Carreno Busta without dropping a set. His results were extra impressive given he usually prefers fast surfaces over clay given he’s a flat hitter. Nishikori dropped sets against Diego Schwartzman and Carlos Berlocq, with a routine win over Joao Sousa inbetween, he did make the final, but he never seemed that comfortable on court in Buenos Aires.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Santiago Gonzalez/David Marrero to win the doubles final.
2017 ATP Memphis Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A long-time staple on the ATP Tour, Memphis is back again this year with 250 level action on indoor hard courts. Here is your preview, with predictions.
ATP World Tour 250
February 13-19, 2017
Memphis, TN, USA
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $642,750
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (18)
2: John Isner (23)
3: Sam Querrey (27)
4: Steve Johnson (31)
Just three top 30 players in Memphis, as the once 500 level tournament has struggled to attract top players this decade.
First round matches to watch:
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Jordan Thompson
The 24 year old Georgian #1 Basilashvili reached the semifinals in Sofia, showing great groundstrokes and tremendous fight. Thompson is a rising Aussie who had success in Davis Cup, and is now looking to do more damage on the tour level, with an ATP top 50 ranking on his radar. Basilashvili is better than his ranking, but jetlag will play a factor, and Thompson is the favorite, as he will put a lot of balls in play and win long points.
(WC)Reilly Opelka vs. (WC)Jared Donaldson
Donaldson has dropped four straight matches, but the young American is still a talent. Opelka is another rising American talent, he’s started the year better than his 20 year old counterpart, but has less tour level experience. Opelka’s booming serve, but still underdeveloped return game almost guarantees tiebreaks in this one, Opelka should win a tiebreak or two and take this match.
Big server Ivo Karlovic should get past the Thompson/Basilashvili winner and setup a match against the winner of Taylor Fritz/Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals. Fritz recently made a challenger final, and is defending final points here. The young American will have to contend with Lu’s tiring ball striking, and then a qualifier, either Matt Ebden or more likely Peter Polansky. Karlovic’s serve should be enough to get him to the semifinals unless Fritz really steps up.
American favorite Steve Johnson will battle fellow Yank Frances Tiafoe, or qualifier Tim Smyczek in round 2. Tiafoe is steadily improving and has a h2h edge over Smyczek, but Johnson, who is played Davis Cup after Melbourne, is still likely too solid from the forehand side to drop their round 2 match. Bernard Tomic should be a challenge in the quarters for Johnson, Tomic opens with qualifier Darian King, with Dustin Brown or Mikhail Kukushkin to follow. King is playing in his third ever tour level main draw match, while Tomic needs to find form after a poor set of tournaments in Australia. Brown injured his back in France, thus although Kukushkin is in poor form, I have him as the opponent for Tomic in round 2. Johnson is 3-0 in his career against Tomic and is in better form, the American should reach the semis.
John Isner has struggled to start 2017 but he has a favorable draw in Memphis, and should do some damage. The 2 seed opens with either Yoshihito Nishioka or a slumping Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, with possibly Adrian Mannarino to follow in the quarters, presuming the Frenchman beats Donald Young and the Opelka/Donaldson winner. Mannarino has been great at the challenger level to start the year, and has a h2h edge against Young. The thought of Isner vs. baby Isner (Opelka) is appealing though, and given Mannarino struggled against Isner’s big serve (1-6 h2h), I have him falling to Opelka, and then Isner beating Opelka in the quarters.
We could see a quarterfinal between former Memphis champions if Sam Querrey beats Ryan Harrison/Konstantin Kravchuk, and Steve Darcis beats Radu Albot and Damir Dzumhur/Kevin Anderson. Querrey may not get out of round 2 though, Harrison just won a challenger and has a 1-0 h2h edge. Formerly a solid tour level player, Harrison is on his way to returning to that level of play, and should defeat the journeyman Kravchuk, then Querrey to reach the quarters. The fate of the other former champion, Darcis, is more promising. The Belgian reached the quarters in Sofia after heroics in Davis Cup. Fatigue could play a factor, but Albot is struggling, and Anderson or Dzumhur should be rusty. The big serving Anderson is a shell of the player he once was on fast surfaces after injuries. I have the serve and volleyer Darcis reaching the semifinals with wins over Anderson and Harrison in consecutive fashion.
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Harrison continues his great form and battles past Querrey and Darcis to reach the semifinals, then challenges Isner at that stage. Harrison has always had the talent, but at times he lets himself get lulled into baseline rallies and broken down.
Semis Karlovic d. Johnson
Isner d. Darcis
Karlovic beat Johnson twice last year after winning just one of their first four matches. Isner should have too much power for Darcis, and he’ll have home support.
Martin Klizan won his fourth career ATP title in a surprise over Gael Monfils 6-7(1) 6-3 6-1. Monfils was in control of play until the wheels came off, and his mental weakness once again reared its ugly head in an ATP final.
The hard hitting Slovak won all but one of his matches in three sets this week and an unexpected champion at the ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. He beat Tommy Robredo in three sets, Marcos Baghdatis in straights, and then both Roberto Bautista Agut and Nicolas Mahut after dropping the first set in a tiebreak. Grit and fight was the story of the week for him.
Monfils beat Ernests Gulbis, slipped past Borna Coric in three sets, and then defeated Alex Zverev and Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the final.
Mahut and Vasek Pospisil defeated Philipp Petzschner and Alexander Peya in the doubles final as it was a strong week for Nico Mahut.
Dominic Thiem won his fourth career ATP title and continued his rise up the ATP rankings with a surprise result in Buenos Aires. Thiem won a nip and tuck three set match over Nicolas Almagro 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(4). The young Austrian #1 stunned Rafael Nadal in a third set tiebreak in the semifinals as he went toe to toe with the king of clay and came out on top in the pressure points.
Thiem also beat Pablo Carreno Busta, Gastao Elias, and Dusan Lajovic in BA this past week. Nicolas Almagro reached his first ATP title since early 2014 with wins over Albert Montanes, Federico Delbonis in 3 sets, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and David Ferrer, the latter two were upset wins.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Inigo Cervantes and an in form Paolo Lorenzi to win the doubles title.
Kei Nishikori dropped just one set this week as he won his fourth career title in Memphis. The Japanese #1 has dominated the southern tournament, and he took out teenage finalist Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-4. Fritz reached an ATP final in just his third career ATP tournament as an 18 year old. The American has a well rounded game, both defensively and offensively, and he got off to a 3-0 lead against Nishikori, only to surrender the first set, and then get broken in the second set and lose the match in straights.
Nishikori beat Ryan Harrison, Mikhail Kukushkin, and Sam Querrey this week, dropping that lone set to Querrey. Fritz beat young gun Michael Mmoh, Steve Johnson, Benjamin Becker in a third set tiebreak, and Ricardas Berankis in three sets as well to reach the final. Fritz is the first American to reach an ATP final after just three career events and has a bright future ahead. He’s nearly into the top 100, with barely any ranking points to defend.
Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez beat Johnson/Querrey to retain the doubles final.
A battle between players who could potentially become ATP stars in the future. Both came through qualifying, and Nishioka is likely a minor favorite due to his (3 set) head to win against Donaldson last year. The speedy Nishioka has had a slightly better start to his season, and I expect him to get the best of the American this time.
(6)Sam Groth vs. Illya Marchenko
Big serving Sam Groth likes this surface, but he has just one win to start his season. Marchenko is lower ranked, but he reached his first ever ATP semifinal in Doha and could take advantage of this rather open field and post another deep run. Groth has a low margin for error if he gets broken, and Marchenko should find a way to prevail.
Dudi Sela vs. Ricardas Berankis
The undersized veteran Sela is a respectable 6-3 in 2016, and he’s another player who could grab critical ranking points with a run in this tournament. Berankis is capable of strong indoor play, and won their last meeting. Both players are undersized ball strikers with relatively clean games. Berankis talent most likely wins the day.
(WC)Taylor Fritz vs. (Q)Michael Mmoh
A battle of former top American juniors. Fritz is 9-2 to start his season, and at this point in his career likely has an edge over his teenage counterpart Mmoh. Mmoh is making his ATP debut after qualifying. He’s the son of a former Nigerian ATP pro, was born in Saudi Arabia, and represents the USA. Both have a promising future, and it will be enjoyable to check out their games in this match.
Kei Nishikori seeks a fourth straight Memphis title, and he’s far and above the strongest player in the field. Nishikori is 5-2 to start the year, and he should move that to 6-2 with a round 2 victory over an American, either Ryan Harrison, or the young gun Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe is off to a consistent start at the Challenger level to start the season.
Nishikori is slated to face #5 seed Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Kudla rarely gets ATP draws this good, so this is a great opportunity for him to make a nice run. He’ll pit his 3-3 ATP record on the season against the serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram, with either Luca Vanni, or more likely, Mikhail Kukushkin, to follow. Vanni broke through in 2015, but has struggled to replicate that success early in the 2016 season. Given Nishikori outpaces Kudla’s ball striking, and that’s the American’s best weapon, Kei should cruise into the semis.
Sam Querrey retired in Melbourne and hasn’t had a great start to his season. He’s has to be glad to be back in the states for a match against either Matt Ebden or Henri Laaksonen. Ebden is 0-3 to start the season, while Laaksonen qualified, but has limited hard court success. Querrey should be able to reach the quarters. Groth/Marchenko will face Nishioka/Donaldson for the right to face him in those quarterfinals. It’ll be an interesting match between Marchenko and Nishioka, with Marchenko a slight dark horse favorite. Querrey has the most experience in this section and should reach the semis.
Steve Johnson won a pair of matches in Melbourne, after a very poor start to 2016, and if he can continue heading in the right direction, he has a great chance at reaching the final. Johnson gets Mmoh/Fritz first up, where his experience should be enough to reach the quarters. John Millman is his likely quarterfinal opponent. Millman, a quarterfinalist in Montpellier, is finally finding ATP success, and his first opponent is American Austin Krajicek. The winner of that match faces either veteran Benjamin Becker, or young American wild card Tommy Paul. Becker could find some momentum, but my quarterfinal pick is Johnson over Millman.
Donald Young isn’t in great form, but on home soil he should have an edge against either Malek Jaziri or Marcel Granollers. Jaziri hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Granollers continues his steady decline in singles. Berankis/Sela will face either Damir Dzumhur or Tim Smyczek for a spot in the semis. Smyczek reached the semis at the Dallas challenger, while Dzhumur has been in Europe, making that match somewhat interesting. Berankis vs. Young is my pick for the quarters, with Berankis advancing.
In a field with few standouts besides Nishikori, it’s anyone’s tournament, and Marchenko, after his run to the semis in Doha, has showed promise this season. A relative journeyman, he prefers hard courts, and could post another ATP semifinal with a couple of upset wins.
Semis Nishikori d. Querrey
Johnson d. Berankis
The top two seeds should reach the final.
Final Nishikori d. Johnson
It’s hard to see Nishikori not winning Memphis, as anyone in the field would need to post a remarkable performance to beat him.
Stan Wawrinka survived some tough matches, including a three set final against Tomas Berdych, to win his first 500 level title in Rotterdam, which is also his first title at that tournament, and his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had to claw his way back from a set down against Berdych, as he was broken in the opening set, after failing to break Berdych in the previous game. Wawrinka broke Berdych once in the second set, and twice in the third set to win the match, as Berdych served under 40% first serves in set 2. Wawrinka was much stronger on serve throughout the match, which means Berdych had fewer chances to grab leads throughout the match. It went back and forth but the elite Wawrinka’s mental fortitude shown through to topple the defending champion. The final scoreline was 4-6 6-3 6-4.
This week Stan was the man, beating Jesse Huta Galung in 3 sets, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in 3 sets, and then he improved and beat Gilles Muller and MIlos Raonic, a pair of huge servers, in straight sets, with the win against Raonic coming in two tiebreaks. JHG and GGL gave it their best shots as underdogs, and Raonic was again impressive on serve, leaving Wawrinka often flailing on return, but his rallying wasn’t good enough to pull off a sustained victory, as Wawrinka survived trial by fire and never faded this tournament.
Berdych, who continues to make deep runs in tournaments so far this season, came close to defending his title, the Czech beat Tobias Kamke without dropping a set, an in form Andreas Seppi in 3 sets, and Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon in routine straight sets. It was a much easier path for Berdych to the final, but perhaps that didn’t prepare for an opponent of Wawrinka’s caliber, once again, under pressure the top Czech folded. Notably Simon upset Andy Murray in a total beatdown in the quarterfinals.
Dutchman Jean-Julien Rojer won on home soil with his partner Horia Tecau, they beat the lucky loser team of Jamie Murray and John Peers, who are off to a great start with their season, in the doubles final.
Kei Nishikori won his third consecutive title in Memphis, he was the top player throughout the week, though a host of competitors gave their best shot trying to defeat him. The last to try was Kevin Anderson who fell to Nishikori 6-4 6-4 in the final.
Nishikori scored wins over three Americans this week, all in three sets, he beat Ryan Harrison first, then Austin Krajicek, who won his second and third career ATP main draw matches in Memphis (over Mikhail Kukushkin and Ivo Karlovic) as a qualifier, and last but not least over Sam Querrey, who he defeated 7-5 in a third set tiebreak, after Querrey had upset his friend John Isner in the quarters in two tiebreaks.
Kevin Anderson also had to beat some US men to reach the final, the South African number one, who has had a good start to his season, beat Sam Groth in straights, then defeated Steve Johnson in straights, and surprise semifinalist Donald Young in 3 sets, coming back from a set down. It was Young’s best result in months as he upset Bernard Tomic in 3 sets in the quarterfinals.
Young also had great success, all be it without a trophy, in doubles this week, as and his partner Artem Sitak fell to Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez, who won their first doubles title as a pairing, both players are accomplished doubles specialists, and they formed a new partnership this season.
Sao Paulo was the place for unheralded players to have success on tour this week, Pablo Cuevas won his third ATP title over the past two seasons, as the Uruguayan will be at a new career high top 30 ranking when the new ATP rankings are released. Cuevas won a third set tiebreak in the final, defeating qualifier Luca Vanni 6-4 3-6 7-6 for the title.
Vanni was perhaps the biggest story on the ATP tour this week, he had never before won an ATP main draw match at the age of 29. The Italian will also be at a career high ranking, as he has never before been ranked in the top 140. Vanni took over Feliciano Lopez’s spot in the draw, as the Spaniard withdrew before the start of the tournament, he beat fellow qualifier Thiemo de Bakker in 3 sets, and then beat Dusan Lajovic in 2 tiebreaks, and Joao Souza in 3 sets to reach the final.
Cuevas beat Jiri Vesely in 3 sets, in a close match, then Facundo Bagnis via retirement, and Nicolas Almagro in 3 sets to reach the semis, at that stage he beat Santiago Giraldo in straights to reach the final, in a tournament full of grinding, close 2 and 3 set matches.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Paolo Lorenzi and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the doubles final, as doubles specialist pairings had success on the ATP World Tour this week.
2015 ATP Rotterdam, Memphis, Sao Paulo Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The traditional Rotterdam 500 level indoor hard tournament takes place this week, along with the US indoor tournament in Memphis, and the clay court event in Sao Paulo, which got switched around on the calendar this year. Both of those tournaments are 250 level events. Here is a preview of all the action as indoor tennis heats up and the Golden Swing rolls on.
2015 ATP Rotterdam Preview
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (4)
2: Milos Raonic (6)
3: Tomas Berdych (7)
4: Stan Wawrinka (9)
A stacked field with 6 of the top 15, there are also a host of unseeded and lower seeded players who can play great on hard courts as Rotterdam has yet again attracted a fantastic field for a 500 level event.
Vasek Pospisil vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber Pospisil hurt himself again in Australia, and he hasn’t performed as well historically indoors as he has on outdoor hard, but even still he’s a difficult opponent for the veteran Kohlschreiber in round 1. The German comes off a loss to Joao Sousa in Montpellier. He’s yet to win consecutive matches this season as his form has been up and down, that said Kohlschreiber should be the better performer indoors and having played more matches of late should help him advance to round 2.
(8)Gilles Simon vs. Joao Sousa Many would presume the Portugese number one Sousa is better on clay, but in fact he’s had some of his best career results on hard courts at the ATP level, and especially indoors. The veteran Simon comes off a loss to Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals of Montpellier and has yet to do anything notable in 2015. Sousa faded against Janowicz in the semis of Montpellier and fatigue could well play a factor but he’s 5-3 in 2015, all on hard courts and none of his losses were poor, so I’m going with the upset and picking Sousa to reach R2.
(3)Tomas Berdych vs. Jerzy Janowicz The defending Champion has a difficult match scheduled in round 1, as you rarely see an early round match with both players in such great form. Berdych of course reached the semifinals at Australian Open with a notable win over Nadal, and before that he had reached the final of Doha by demolishing all opponents in his wake (including Richard Gasquet and Andreas Seppi). Janowicz is already showing signs of improvement in 2015, after a dismal 2014. He’s reached the final of Montpellier and he also reached the third round at the AO (notably beating Gael Monfils in 5). History favors Berdych though. The big hitting Czech is 3-0 in the h2h, including a win last year in Rotterdam over the big hitting Pole, and though all of those matches were tight three set encounters, Janowicz has fatigue working against him, and retired due to illness in Montpellier, while Berdych should be fresh, thus he should survive the upset alert.
(5)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q)Paul-Henri Mathieu
Dimitrov lost their only h2h meeting in straights (2012 Basel indoors) and he comes off quarterfinals in Melbourne. Mathieu, the mentally shaky veteran, beat Jurgen Melzer to qualify after pushing Philipp Kohlschreiber to 3 sets in Montpellier. Mathieu is a bit of an indoor hard court specialist these days, and it’s not an easy matchup for Dimitrov, I still expect him to advance but it could go three sets.
David Goffin vs. Gilles Muller Goffin, who hails from just over the border in Belgium, and is nearly playing in a home event, (like the Luxembourger Muller is a fellow Benelux), has yet to catch fire in 2015 after his rise in 2014 into a consistent ATP player. D Goff is just 3-3 in 2015 and has yet to beat a player with a top 50 ranking. Muller, who can do a lot of damage with his cracking serve indoors was shown the door by Ricardas Berankis in Zagreb in 3 sets after reaching the second week in Australia. Muller has kept himself busy thus far this year, having played every week on tour, but his gamestyle doesn’t lend himself to exhaustion, and with Goffin yet to put the pieces together this year, I’m going with an upset and have Muller into round 2. They have never met, and we’ll see if Goffin can keep his game under control under assault from Muller’s steady dose of serve and volleying.
AO finalist Andy Murray, who has won the title here before, opens with qualifier Nicolas Mahut, then the Pospisil/Kohlschreiber winner. Mahut isn’t too dangerous so Murray should be safe in that one. Murray has never played Kohli indoors, and he beat Pospisil last year in Vienna. As well he has started his season, I don’t expect the UK number one to have any problems reaching the quarterfinals to setup a meeting with most likely the Sousa/Simon winner. Julian Benneteau, who has indoor success, and Jeremy Chardy, are also possible opponents, but all the same Murray can’t really complain about his path to the semifinals. He demolished Sousa in Melbourne and has only lost once in a dozen meetings against Simon. I have Sousa into the quarters with wins over Simon and Benneteau. Sousa denied Benneteau a maiden ATP title in Kuala Lumpur indoors in 2013, taking the title himself.
Berdych/Janowicz will face Robin Haase/Andreas Seppi in round 2. Berdych beat Seppi in Doha, and the Italian, who is on a tear so far in 2015, is likely to be fatigued from his current final, and possible title in Zagreb. Haase continues to be pedestrian, so Berdych should get past Seppi for the quarters and setup a meeting with perhaps Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA opens with young gun German WC Alex Zverev, and then Gael Monfils or fellow French qualifier Edouard Roger-Vasselin are on deck. Monfils reached the semis in Montpellier while suffering from an undisclosed illness, and his health is uncertain at the moment. With that in mind, I’m playing it safe and putting RBA through even though Monfils beat him last summer in Cincy. RBA is 3-3 in 2015, but he was also ill in January and isn’t a bad indoor hard court player. Berdych and RBA have a split 2-2 h2h, with all meetings taking place since 2013, and Berdych won their only indoor meeting. That match could be close but Berdych has looked great against all but top tier competition in 2015 and he has points to defend so I expect to see him as a semifinalist this week.
Milos Raonic is making his debut in Rotterdam. The AO quarterfinalist will face Lukas Rosol or Simone Bolelli in round 2, after qualifier Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1. Bolelli, who is actually a grand slam champion now after winning the doubles title in Melbourne, has been in better form than Rosol, so he should advance to face Raonic. Raonic has appeared immune to losing to all but top 10 players on hard court as of late so he shouldn’t have any trouble banging his way to the quarterfinals. Raonic doesn’t have a difficult path to the semifinals either, as Ernests Gulbis is the seed in his section, and Gulbis has not looked good so far this season. The Latvian will likely be happy to be back indoors though and should be favored against his best pal and former hitting partner Dominic Thiem of Austria. Thiem actually beat Gulbis in 5 last year at the US Open but Thiem has appeared to be out of sorts and out of shape thus far in 2015, so now is a good time to see him on the other side of the net if you’re Gulbis, who will be looking to build his confidence. In round 2 for Gulbis/Thiem it’ll be Sergiy Stakhovsky or Marcel Granollers, two of the weaker players in this field. Stakhovsky lost in round 2 of Zagreb to Mikhail Youzhny, while Granollers reached the semifinals before falling to Seppi. With Granollers in better form I have him through against both Stako and Gulbis. The hard court h2h between Gulbis and Granollers is 1-1. Raonic should demolish whoever his quarterfinal opponent is and reach the semis.
Stan Wawrinka, who reached the semis in Australia will open with Dutch wild card Jesse Huta Galung, from there expect Wawrinka to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez yet again, after winning in 4 sets over him at the AO. GGL is in the Zagreb final (beat Viktor Troicki notably) and may take the title there, he opens with Denis Istomin who luckily reached the quarters in Montpellier. GGL won their only indoor meeting, and should get into round 2, but I don’t expect him to have much left in the tank for for Wawrinka at that stage. Wawrinka is slated to face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, assuming he can get past Mathieu, and then the Goffin/Muller winner. Muller/Goffin could be trouble, but Dimitrov is still the more talented player so he should be favored. Dimitrov demolished Wawrinka on grass in their last h2h meeting but given current form, the fact this is indoors, and a 2-1 overall h2h Wawrinka should be able to get himself to the semis here and avenge that loss.
In a tournament where the top seeds should be filling out the quarterfinals and beyond, Muller represents the best chance for an unseeded breakthrough (given Janowicz’s likely fatigue). With his dangerous serve, and the fact this is a tournament close to his home. Muller plays tennis with narrow margins, when his serve is clicking he can win a bunch of matches, and when he has even a slight dip in form he’ll struggle against journeymen, but if he does start to click, he could perhaps beat Goffin, Dimitrov, and who knows, even Wawrinka if Stan has an off day, to reach the semis, it’s not likely but the chance is there on this surface.
Predictions Semis: Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Raonic
In what would be an AO rematch, Berdych is good indoors but we saw how well Murray played in their recent matchup, so the Brit has to be favored. Top 10 players Raonic and Wawrinka have a chance to meet for the fourth time here, I’m going with Wawrinka based on a gut feeling that he will be able to return well enough to beat Raonic, given he’s won all three previous meetings in that manner, but it is nearly a pure toss-up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these names in the final given their excellent form so far this season.
Final: Murray d. Wawrinka
This match has always been a close one, Murray has a 6-3 hard court h2h edge, with Wawrinka having won their last meeting (US Open 2013). Again this is a super hard pick to make and both would be deserving champions. I’ve been really pleased with what I’ve seen from Murray since last Fall, and given that I feel he’s back, I have him as the champion this week of a stacked Rotterdam event.
Memphis Open ATP World Tour 250 Memphis, Tennessee, USA February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Kevin Anderson (15)
3: John Isner (18)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (24)
In it’s second year as a 250 level, ATP only event, Memphis has three top 20 players, and a relatively quality international contingent to go with most of the top and up and coming US men.
First Round matchups to watch:
(WC)Jared Donaldson vs. (WC)Stefan Kozlov Two players who have been pegged as future leaders in US men’s tennis will meet early on in their careers as wild cards on US soil in Memphis. Donaldson, 18, just won the Maui challenger title, his first career Challenger title, after going on a tear of 17 match wins in a row last season. Kozlov, 17, who had more success at the junior level, reaching two junior grand slam finals last season (Wimbledon and the AO) won the Maui doubles title partnering with Donaldson. Both are at career high rankings (Kozlov nearing the top 400 and Donaldson inside the top 180). Donaldson at this point in his career is perhaps slightly ahead of the development curve compared to the younger Kozlov, and his recent form would make him the favorite, but I’m not sure the result of this match will mirror how their careers are going to turn out.
AO quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori has won this title twice in a row and he’s going for a three-peat this year. Malek Jaziri or a qualifier will be his first opponent, Jaziri, who has actually played well this year so far (reached the third round in Melbourne), got himself in hot water again after retiring from a set up against Denis Istomin in Montpellier. The stated reason was an “elbow injury” but Israeli player Dudi Sela had setup a meeting with the Tunisian in the next round, and Jaziri has withdrawn before to avoid facing an Israeli player. Jaziri also pulled out of doubles against an Israeli opponent in Montpellier, and this PR debacle of a situation is going to cloud him for quite some time, especially if he continues to not directly come out and address it. All the same expect to see Nishikori in the quarters, and perhaps get a rematch of last years final against Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Croat will need to defeat Lukas Lacko, who was awful in Zagreb last week, and then the Mikhail Kukushkin/qualifier winner. Kukushkin, who reached an ATP final in January in Sydney, is a rather streaky player, as is Karlovic, who lost his opening contest in Zagreb against Marcos Baghdatis in 3 sets. Kukushkin and Karlovic have never played, I’m simply picking Karlovic because of previous success and the quarterfinalist here is a toss-up. Regardless, expect Nishikori to blaze through to the semis.
John Isner has never played as well in Memphis as he has in most other US events, that said the American number one has Ivan Dodig or Teymuraz Gabashvili on his plate in round 2. Gabashvili played pretty well in the Dallas challenger, reaching the semifinals, while Dodig lost his second match in Zagreb to Marcel Granollers. This matchup could go either way, but given Gabashvili is already in the US, I have him into round 2, before falling victim to Isner. Benjamin Becker, who had his best result at a Grand Slam in a decade when he reached the third round in Melbourne this year is in this section as well as a potential quarterfinal opponent for Isner. Becker could potentially vanquish both parts of “Quisner” , as his round 1 opponent is Sam Querrey who is 0-3 in 2015. Look for Becker, who serves as well as Querrey, but is a superior ball striker and mover, to get into the quarterfinals after beating most likely Donaldson in round 2. This isn’t a bad draw for one of the young American wild cards, but more likely will serve as a learning experience with a round 2 loss against a more experienced player. Isner has a 3-0 h2h against Becker but they haven’t met since 2009 and Becker has played, perhaps the best tennis of his career into his 30s over the past 6 months or so, with that in mind, I have Becker as a surprise semifinalist this week.
Kevin Anderson reached the second week in Melbourne, and should expect to be matched serve for serve in his first match in Memphis, that is if Aussie Sam Groth, who reached the third round Melbourne, can defeat baseliner Rendy Lu in round 1. Both Groth and Anderson have had both good and bad results in 2015, and it’s a tough match to pick. Anderson, given his ranking and similar style of player, is in most cases better than Groth on the return and equal to him on serve, so the South African number one should get through with likely tiebreak sets. Groth has improved his return but Anderson was already a step ahead. American Steve Johnson has a great shot at a good result here, if he can beat Dudi Sela, and Marinko Matosevic/Dustin Brown, he’d setup a quarterfinal meeting with most likely Anderson. Johnson has yet to lose an opening round match in 2015, as he continues to show signs of improvement in his game. Brown was a point away from beating possible champion Jerzy Janowicz in Montpellier, but all the same I expect Johnson over Matosevic in round 2. Anderson is 3-0 against Johnson, including two wins last year and a win in straights this year in Auckland, with that in mind, the matchup favors Kev and he should reach the semis, even with a tricky path.
Alex Dolgopolov, who was injured in Australia with a leg problem could face Bernard Tomic in round 2, assuming the Aussie, who reached the second week in Melbourne, beats Igor Sijsling, who comes off the quarterfinals in Zagreb. Tomic is 7-3 in 2015 and appears to be focused and in the groove right now, you never know how long that will last, but he still should be the favorite to reach the quarterfinals at least here, with Dolgo in questionable physical condition and always unpredictable. Tomic and Dolgo have played some awesome h2h matches, with Tomic winning their most recent encounter last year in Sydney, and also a 5 setter at the 2012 AO (Dolgo had won three previous hc meeting before that one for a 3-2 hard court h2h edge), This is a must see match if it takes place, with talented shotmaking a given. Tomic should actually have an easier time in the quarters, Donald Young is an option, Adrian Mannarino is the 8 seed, and a pair of qualifiers are also here. This is a section a qualifier could get out of (Denis Kudla, and Thanasi Kokkinakis are potential qualifiers) but without knowing who the qualifiers will be, I have Mannarino into the quarters with wins over Young and a qualifier. Mannarino reached the final in Auckland last month and comes off a round 1 loss to Sijsling in Zagreb, while Young was a quarterfinalist in Auckland. Tomic should reach the semis out of this section that isn’t overly difficult.
Tomic should make the semis as a non seed given his draw, and one of Anderson/Johnson/Groth is also quite beatable, Tomic is 3-0 on hard courts against Anderson, including a win indoors last year in Stockholm, and thus he should be an a finalist this week if his play holds true to its current form. As usual the talent is there but the question is can Bernie remain focused and implement the game plan and discipline needed to translate that into results on a week to week basis?
Semis: Nishikori d. Becker
Tomic d. Anderson
Nishikori and Becker played one of the best regular ATP tour matches of the season last year in Tokyo, Nishikori won in a third set tiebreak, clawing back from a set down, as Becker was throwing his entire arsenal at Nishikori (and previously Nishikori beat Becker last year in Memphis). The Japanese number one should win, but this pair produce some great tennis on a consistent basis and it’s still worth watching.
As mentioned above, Tomic has a demonstrated edge against Anderson, and thus he should take advantage of his draw and make the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Tomic
Nishikori was a cut above Tomic in the Brisbane quarterfinals this year, given how that match went, I don’t expect this one to go any better, Nishikori is a strong favorite to win his third ATP Memphis title.
The 24 year old Lajovic remains poised to a breakthrough at the ATP level, though his ranking is stuck in the 60-90 no mans land right now. Meanwhile the veteran Andujar will be pleased to return to clay court tennis this week, as hard courts have once again not been kind to him this year. Lajovic pushed possible Quito champion Feliciano Lopez (a current finalist) to 3 sets in the quarterfinals, very nearly knocking him out with a 1 set lead and break point chances in the second. Andujar has experience and he’s higher ranked but I’m going with an upset and placing Lajovic into the second round, as I feel he has the ability to win this.
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci beat Klizan last year in Sao Paulo, and comes off the Quito semis, where he dropped a tough match to Victor Estrella. The home player with have crowd support against the Slovak Klizan, who also lost to Estrella by a wider margin in the quarterfinals of that same event. Bellucci should be favored at home but his mentality is always a question mark, either way this should be a rowdy contest.
(5)Pablo Cuevas vs. Jiri Vesely
Cuevas had a fantastic year on the red stuff last year, going 47-9 on clay across all levels of tournament action with a pair of ATP titles to reach a career high ranking just inside the top 30. Now he will seek to repeat that showing, or even one up it this year, starting his ATP clay tournament calendar in Sao Paulo. In his first match on clay in 2015 he will face the young Czech Jiri Vesely who just won his maiden ATP title last month in Auckland. Vesely is also no slouch on clay, as he went 18-10 on the surface under the same standard as Cuevas. Vesely likely has more raw ability, but I have the experienced Cuevas, who plays some of his best tennis in these conditions, through to round 2.
Feliciano Lopez is seeking to binge his way through the Golden Swing and maintain, if not improve on his career high ranking inside the top 15. The current Quito finalist and possible champion will have his first match in SP against Juan Monaco, a former doubles partner, or a qualifier (young gun Elias Ymer and a host of second tier dirtballers are possible qualifiers). Monaco was once in the same position Lopez is in now, having reached a career high ranking of 10 in 2010, but it’s been all downhill from there for the declining Argentine, so even if he’s fatigued Flopez should flow his way into the quarters, while Monaco could struggle with a qualifier in round 1. Lopez could play a rematch of a strange, but quality semifinal match with his fellow Spanish Armada member Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. The Quito semifinalist has a qualifier first up and then the Lajovic/Andujar winner. This section presents a great chance for Lajovic to post consecutive quarters if Verdasco is exhausted. Otherwise I’m going to repeat what I picked last week, and put Verdasco into the semis, even though I was wrong on that in Quito. It was a close match and Lopez will have to play one extra match (and stay in Quito an extra day) compared to Verdasco. Something like that is enough to swing a result.
Leonardo Mayer. who went 19-10 on clay last year with an ATP title and final on the surface, both career bests, is another player that is happy to see the ATP tour return to clay. Mayer will face Spanish vet Albert Ramos or Brazilian WC Guillherme Clezar in round 1. Mayer is a cut above Ramos, and Ramos is more accomplished than Clezar, so expect Mayer to reach the quarters by defeating Ramos. Mayer vs. the Bellucci/Klizan winner is the most likely quarterfinal in this section. I favor Bellucci over Pablo Carreno Busta, assuming PCB beats Joao Souza, another Brazilian. Souza comes off a round 1 loss in Quito, while PCB will be making his 2015 clay debut after posting a 24-15 record on the surface last season in tournament play. Bellucci-PCB should be a good R2 match for a 250, with Bellucci has a home favorite. Mayer and Bellucci have a split h2h, when it comes to the slated quarterfinal (2-2), and Mayer has been better in recent career results, so I have Leo into the semis against Verdasco.
Tommy Robredo, who won this tournament in 2009 when it was in a different location, will open with Blaz Rola or Nicolas Almagro in round 2. Almagro is a three time former champion at the Brasil Open, and he’s 4-1 against Robredo on clay in his career. He’s played just a handful of matches since coming back from injury, but he looked healthy and improving in Melbourne (lost to Kei Nishikori in round 1), while Robredo is coming off his own injury and hasn’t completed any tournament matches this year. Rola hasn’t done anything special as of late, and I expect Almagro to keep improving against him, then get Robredo at a good time for that matchup to happen, and take him out as well to make the quarterfinals. At that stage Cuevas/Vesely could be his opponent, or defending champ Federico Delbonis who opens with a qualifier. Delbonis went 14-10 on clay last year in what was a breakthrough season into the top 60 for him. He has a lot of points to defend, and he’s not been gifted a lucky draw, as I feel Cuevas is superior on the surface, and will be the one to reach the quarters, though any of him, Vesely or Cuevas reaching the quarters wouldn’t shock me, as it’s a stacked section. Cuevas just beat Almagro in Sydney on HCs and has one previous H2H win against him, so for that reason I’m going with another (slight) upset and putting the Uruguayan number one into the semis from this stacked section.
Fabio Fognini is returning to clay in SP and looking to get his singles career back on track, having returned the Golden Swing he did so well in last year. Fogna will face his countryman Paolo Lorenzi or Diego Schwartzman in round 2. Lorenzi comes off quarters in Quito, while Schwartzman is ready to make his move to the next level, after an incredible 21-2 record on clay last year at the non ATP level (22-3 overall as he played almost entirely challengers to get into the top 70). I have the 22 year old making his move and defeating both Italians, Lorenzi and Fognini to reach the quarterfinals. SP is the type of tournament where rising players can have a shot to announce themselves to the tennis world, and Schwartzman is due. Fognini has been in crisis mode since the US Open and Schwartzman is good enough to at least give him a quality match, and given the current state of Fogna’s form, defeat him. Schwartzman also has a great chance at the semis, the only other seed left would be Santiago Giraldo, the Colombian who had a great year last year, dropped a bad match to Albert Montanes in Quito. He opens with WC Kimmer Coppejans, and should win, but I have Argentine grinder Carlos Berlocq beating him, given the 4-2 overall h2h in round 2. Berlocq went 18-6 on clay last year and beat Schwartzman in 3 sets to win a challenger title on clay (Porto Alegre). A quarterfinal between this is a bit of a coin flip but I have the experienced Berlocq into the semifinals against Cuevas.
I have the unseeded Berlocq in the semis this week as well, but Schwartzman gets the dark horse tag because he’s a young gun, and he could win his first ATP title this week if he rises to the occasion. Should he get through Lorenzi, Fognini and Berlocq/Giraldo, all accomplished veterans, Cuevas/Almagro/Robredo or some other player are all beatable semifinal opponents as Schwartzman would likely need to beat a bunch of veterans just to reach the final this week. It’s a relatively open tournament field and Verdasco/Mayer/Lopez aren’t unbeatable either in a possible final.
Predictions Semis: Mayer d. Verdasco
Cuevas d. Berlocq
Mayer should be fresher than Verdasco or Lopez, and you have to believe he can maintain the high level of play we saw from his last season, especially on his favorite surface.
Cuevas-Berlocq is another judgement call but Cuevas has won the last four clay court h2h meetings, so he should be favored.
Final: Mayer d. Cuevas
Mayer was slightly better last season and has a 2-1 clay h2h edge, this is a hard tournament to predict, but I have Mayer winning another ATP title, this time in Sao Paulo.
UK Tennis blogger Glenys Furness caught up with 21 year old Liam Broady, The Englishman is currently at a career high ranking of 180 in the world and just turned pro last season. Since turning pro he has already reached final round qualies at the AO this year, and reached an ATP challenger final last year at the end of the season, along with multiple futures tour titles. He and his sister Naomi are both UK based tennis professionals and he appears poised for a breakthrough. Broady was prepped for success at the junior level as he reached two junior slam finals (Wimbledon 2011, US Open 2012), and won two junior grand slam doubles titles (Wimbledon 2010, Australian Open 2012) between 2010 and 2012.
Liam Broady took time out of his preparations for the Memphis ATP 250 qualifying to talk with me. I am grateful to both Liam and to his fitness trainer Ric Moylan for giving me some time. Liam is ranked 180 in the world currently, and is the British number 4 men’s singles player by ranking.
“How did you get involved with (Life Coach) Adrian Tannock” “I got involved with Adrian via Ric (Moylan) around 4 years ago. My Dad was looking for assistance in finding ways to develop the psychological element of my tennis. Ric and Adrian had worked together previously with other athletes so after Ric introduced us, we developed a strong relationship from there.”
“What does Ric have you doing during the off season” “Ric has me doing pretty much everything that hurts. I’ve grown to love doing the hard work that Ric has taught me will bring me success, and he’s an indispensable member of my team.”
“If British Davis Cup Captain Leon Smith selected you for the Davis Cup, what would this mean to you” “It would be amazing and an honour to represent my country at the highest level of tennis, playing the sport I love around fantastic people. Playing Davis Cup has always been at the top of my ambitions to achieve.”
“What match from the US Challenger matches last year has resonated the most, and why?” “The biggest result on paper was beating Tim Smyzcek in 3 sets after losing to him pretty comfortably only a few weeks before although the match I think I played best in was against Peter Torebko the round after.”
“There has been a lot in the press recently on the financial burden on players, how do you make ends meet and what sacrifices have you made?” “Tennis is an expensive sport to participate in and at lower levels the rewards financially are next to none. Over the last couple of years since I left home I have had sponsorships from Nike and Dunlop that have helped massively and of course support from the LTA has been invaluable.”
“Looking ahead, what is your next major goal?” “My next major goal is to finish the year in the top 100. Apart from that I just want to focus on improving as a player and a person.”
“Who do you feel are the next up and coming stars of British Tennis?” “I would like to think that myself and Kyle Edmund are! But after that I’m not too sure, I haven’t spent much time in England the last few years but I know that Marcus Walters who is coached by Leighton Alfred in Nottingham plays very well as does Max Stewart who is also at Nottingham.”
Thank you again to Liam and Ric for the opportunity to speak together, and best of luck in the Memphis qualifying.-Glenys