Deep French Field Including Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Feature at ATP Montpellier Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first of the numerous ATP tournaments in France, Montpellier is a 250 on indoor hard courts. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
David Goffin comes off success in Davis Cup and will face Gilles Simon in the opening round, presuming Simon beats a qualifier. I’ll go with Simon in an upset, given home court advantage, Goffin’s likely fatigue, and Simon’s good form to start the year. David Ferrer is another veteran in good form, he’ll face Karen Khachanov, Ricardas Berankis/Julien Benneteau will follow. Simon over Ferrer is my pick in the quarters.
Richard Gasquet played well in Davis Cup, he has a tough opening match against Daniil Medvedev, with Pierre-Hugues Herbert/qualifier to follow. Gasquet is still my pick ot reach the quarters, opposite Damir Dzumhur. Dzumhur will face Calvin Hemery/Ruben Bemelmans in the second round.
Lucas Pouille struggled to start the season, he should beat a qualifier, but his countryman Benoit Paire should be tricky in the quarters. Paire opens with Mischa Zverev, John Millman/Yuichi Sugita will follow. Paire is my pick over Pouille in the quarters given the current form of both players.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a great shot in his section of the draw, Nicolas Mahut/Dustin Brown will be his first opponent, Andrey Rublev should be his quarterfinal opponent. Rublev opens with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Stefanos Tsitsipas/Jeremy Chardy will follow. Tsitsipas could make a run, but Rublev seems to be better at this point in time. Tsonga is my pick to reach the semis.
2017 ATP Montpellier Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The third ATP 250 this week takes place in France, on indoor hard courts, featuring three top 20 players, and a host of European talents. Here is your preview, with predictions.
Open Sud De France
ATP World Tour 250
Montpellier, France
February 6-12, 2017
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: €482,060
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (7)
2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (14)
3: Richard Gasquet (18)
4: Alexander Zverev (22)
Along with Sofia, Montpellier boasts a strong European centric field this week.
Playing at home in France should give Paire a clear advantage in this matchup, but he’s known to lose his focus, and the young Russian Khachanov needs to start winning matches like this if he’s going to cement himself at the tour level in the coming months. Khachanov has a bright future, but in the short term Paire’s firepower should be enough.
Daniel Evans (6)Mischa Zverev
After a tough weekend in the Davis Cup, Evans travels to France to take on an in-form Zverev on what should be a quick indoor hard court. Both Zverev and Evans have been playing at career bests early in 2017, but Zverev should be fresher, and his serve and volleying should be a difficult matchup for Evans.
Top Half:
After a miserable start to the season, top seed Marin Cilic badly needs to gain some momentum in this 250. Both Dustin Brown and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez are struggling, so Cilic should at least make the quarterfinals, most likely to face Feliciano Lopez, presuming Lopez beats a qualifier and Paire/Khachanov. Paire vs. Lopez isn’t easy to predict, but I have Lopez serve and volleying having a matchup edge. Cilic leads Lopez 4-2 in their h2h, and thus I have Cilic reaching the semifinals.
Three-time and defending Montpellier Champion Richard Gasquet comes off Davis Cup play, and jetlag may play a factor, but he should defeat Malek Jaziri or a qualifier, and then Mischa Zverev in the quarterfinals. Home favorite Quentin Halys or Illya Marchenko will face Zverev or Evans in round 2, with Zverev as the favorite, up until he faces Gasquet, who should win their match with superior groundstrokes and reach the semifinals.
An impressive 6-2 to start the season, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should delight home fans with a victory over Pierre-Hugues Herbert or a qualifier, and then another win over most likely Fernando Verdasco, presuming Verdasco defeats a qualifier and the winner of Daniil Medvedev/Tobias Kamke. Medvedev retired in his last match over the weekend, and may not be fit, despite his talent. Tsonga is better than the fellow aggressive veteran Verdasco at this venue.
Alexander Zverev struggled in Davis Cup play, but neither Borna Coric nor Aljaz Bedene are in good form themselves, which means Zverev should be opposite either Jeremy Chardy or Chardy’s countryman Paul-Henri Mathieu, the defending finalist, in the quarterfinals. Chardy opens with dirtballer Marcel Granollers, while PHM will face a qualifier. Chardy isn’t playing great at the moment, but at home in France I still have him upsetting Zverev, who seems a bit out of sorts.
The unseeded Frenchman Paire could also be trouble, but the young Zverev’s funk is Chardy’s gain as the unseeded Frenchman doesn’t have an overly difficult path to the semis, as long as he finds the mojo on his serve and stays in matches.
Predictions
Semis Gasquet d. Cilic
Tsonga d. Chardy
Cilic and Gasquet have split meetings, but the venue and form favors Gasquet. Tsonga has a h2h edge over Chardy and should be the better player.
Final Tsonga d. Gasquet
A close 5-4 h2h doesn’t provide much insight into who would win this final, but Tsonga should be fresher, and that alone gives him a slight edge.
2016 ATP Montpellier Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
After the Australian Open the ATP World Tour will have two events in Europe, in France, and Bulgaria, along with a clay court Golden Swing event in Ecuador. The European events are 250s on indoor hard court, while the event in Quito, Ecuador is on high altitude clay.
Open Sud de France
ATP World Tour 250
Montpellier, France
February 1-7, 2016
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Richard Gasquet (9)
2: Marin Cilic (13)
3: Gilles Simon (15)
4: Benoit Paire (18)
A strong French contingent gives Montpellier a solid field for a 250.
Ernests Gulbis has lost three straight and continues to be in terrible form dating back to last season. The Latvian used to be a top ATP player, but he’s lost his way yet again, and is in danger of slipping down to the Challenger level once more. The French wild card Halys is a rising star who won a round in Melbourne and fell to Novak Djokovic in round 2. He lacks experience, but has plenty of skill, and has a nice shot at an upset win in this match.
John Millman vs. (WC)Julien Benneteau
Millman reached the third round in Melbourne and upset Gilles Muller in the process. He’s another underachieving talent in this draw, while Benneteau is still recovering from injury and trying to return to ATP caliber play. Given their recent form Millman should have an edge.
Richard Gasquet missed the opening month of the season due to a back injury but presuming he’s not too rusty the two-time Montpellier champion has a clear path to the semifinals. Gasquet will open with the Gulbis/Halys winner with one of Lukas Lacko/Marcos Baghdatis/Denis Istomin/Taro Daniel awaiting in the quarterfinals. Both Istomin and Daniel are 0-3 to start the season, so one of them will earn their first ATP win of 2016. Lacko recently made a challenger semi, but Baghdatis likely has an edge to slip into the quarterfinals as an aggressive striking veteran.
Baghdatis is 3-0 in the h2h against Gasquet, and he could pull an upset, but the Frenchman’s positive history at this venue makes him the favorite.
Gilles Simon has never reached the final in Montpellier, but his recent form in Melbourne makes him a threat to capture the title. Simon took two sets off Novak Djokovic and reached the fourth round. The counterpuncher will open with Steve Darcis or a qualifier, and most likely awaits Joao Sousa in the quarterfinals. Sousa is a bit of an indoor hard court specialist, and reached the third round in Melbourne. The Portugese #1 opens with Ruben Bemelmans of Belgium, with Nicolas Mahut or J.L. Struff up in round 2. Both Struff and Mahut are capable of indoor success, but Sousa should be the favorite.
Simon leads Sousa 2-1 in the h2h, and we could see an all-French semifinal vs. Gasquet.
Marin Cilic has suffered a pair of disappointing losses to start the season, including a third round defeat in Melbourne. The Croatian is looking to get back on track against Alex Zverev or Luca Vanni. Cilic should be untroubled by Zverev, and Borna Coric is his likely quarterfinal opponent. Coric opens with Michael Berrer, who he trails 0-2 in the h2h. Cilic’s countryman already has an ATP final under his belt this season, though he has lost three straight matches. Berrer opted not to retire after a career year in 2015, and his serve and volley game is a throwback.
The Coric/Berrer winner gets Niko Basilashvili or a qualifier in round 2. Cilic pummeled Coric last year in Shanghai, and matchup wise he should be able to power his way into the semis.
Benoit Paire is 3-3 with a semifinal to start the season, the former Montpellier finalist will open with either a qualifier or veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu. He’s on track to have the toughest quarterfinal against Gael Monfils, a two-time Montpellier champion. Monfils has Millman/Benneteau, after a qualifier in round 1, in his path to the quarterfinals. The Australian Open quarterfinalist lost to Paire last season, but his good form to start the year suggests he’ll avenge that loss and put his exciting tennis into the semifinals.
Sousa could run the table like he did last year in Valencia, and St. Petersburg, reaching the final or perhaps capturing the title. His ball striking has a way of finding form on indoor hard courts, and Simon and Gasquet have proven themselves to be beatable.
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