Home Hero Alexander Zverev Leads Stacked ATP Munich Field Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Young guns Alexander Zverev and Hyeon Chung are among the top 4 seeds at the 2018 BMW Open 250 on clay in Munich. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
A semifinalist in Monte Carlo, home favorite Alexander Zverev will start against Marcos Baghdatis or Yannick Hanfmann, with another German likely lurking in the quarterfinals. Yannick Maden takes on Yuichi Sugita, while J.L. Struff takes on qualifier Daniel Masur. Both Struff and Maden are playing well, with Maden close to a breakthrough. I’ll go with Zverev over Struff in an all-German quarterfinal.
Hyeon Chung and Gael Monfils are both a joy to watch and could meet in the quarterfinals. Chung takes on Mikhail Kukushkin or Matthias Bachinger, while Monfils should get past Mirza Basic before running into Florian Mayer or Martin Klizan. Klizan qualified, and I have his fantastic form helping him get past Mayer, Monfils, and Chung to be a dark horse semifinalist.
Roberto Bautista Agut is slated to take on Marius Copil or Casper Ruud, RBA should defeat Ruud and Philipp Kohlschreiber in the quarters. I have Kohli beating Ivo Karlovic and Mischa Zverev/Andreas Haider-Maurer to reach the quarters.
Fabio Fognini takes on his countryman, Marco Cecchinato in the opening round. Cecchinato just won in Budapest, but Fognini should defeat him and Guido Pella/Marton Fucsovics to reach the quarters. I’ll back Diego Schwartzman to beat Dustin Brown and Max Marterer to get to the same stage, with Fognini reaching the semis.
2017 ATP Munich Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
One of Germany’s numerous ATP tournaments, this is perhaps the strongest ATP 250 stop on clay this week. Here is your preview with predictions.
BMW Open by FWU
ATP World Tour 250
Munich, Germany
May 1-7, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €482,060
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gael Monfils (17)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (18)
3: Alexander Zverev (21)
4: Fabio Fognini (29)
Although it lacks a top 10 player, the BMW Open field has the most depth of any tournament this week.
A battle between veterans, Seppi leads Zeballos 2-1 in the h2h, but Zeballos is coming off the semifinals in Barcelona and has shown good form on clay. If Zeballos is going to repair his ranking and move towards the top 50 he’s going to need to back up his play last week and win matches like this against a pedestrian Seppi.
(5)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (WC)Casper Ruud
Defending and three-time champion Kohlschreiber shouldn’t be overly troubled by the young gun Ruud but this is a great form check for Ruud, who qualified and reached the second round in Barcelona. Kohlschreiber recently made the final in Marrakech.
Top Half
Gael Monfils has had a flat season this year and would love to kickstart his tennis in Munich. He’ll open with either Max Marterer or Hyeon Chung, who qualified in Barcelona and made the quarterfinals. Presuming Monfils gets past the upset alert match against Chung he should be favored against Budapest quarterfinalist Martin Klizan, who opens with Nicolas Kicker, and then will face either Dustin Brown or Mischa Zverev, who will have a serve and volley battle in round 1 on clay.
Kohlschreiber should beat Ruud and Zeballos/Seppi, Fabio Fognini lurks in the quarterfinals, presuming he can defeat Guido Pella (or Cedrik-Marcel Stebe) in round 2. Kohlschreiber is better than Fognini right now, despite Fognini’s ability to play peak tennis.
Bottom Half
Roberto Bautista Agut looks set to face Thomaz Bellucci in the quarters, he’ll face either Thiago Monteiro or Marius Copil in round 2, after starting the season 2-2 on clay. Houston finalist Bellucci should ease past either Gerald Melzer or ATP main draw debutante Yannick Hanfmann, with RBA favored against Bellucci in the quarters.
Sascha Zverev should have enough quality to defeat either veteran Jeremy Chardy or Jozef Kovalik in round 2, Jan-Lennard Struff is a narrow favorite to make it an all-German quarterfinal, presuming he beats Daniel Masur and either Sergiy Stakhovsky or the ageless Tommy Haas, who should beat Stako on clay. Zverev is the clear favorite to make the semifinals.
Haas likely has at least one more ATP tournament run left in him and it could come at home in Germany. Haas already has two ATP wins this year and has fifteen career ATP titles, the last of his trophies coming in 2013. This is not the most difficult draw, and the likes of Zverev and Struff are certainly beatable, even though he’s a clear underdog.
Predictions
Semis Kohlschreiber d. Monfils
Zverev d. Bautista Agut
Final Kohlschreiber d. Zverev
I’ll back Kohlschreiber and Zverev to reach the final in Germany, with the veteran Kohli deserving of a fourth Munich title.
2015 ATP Munich Preview Steen Kirby and Marc Imperatori, Tennis Atlantic
Completing the trio of ATP World Tour events this week is the clay court event in Munich, with the strongest field of all tournaments this week. Alongside Estoril and Istanbul, Tennis Atlantic is pleased to have on-site credentialed coverage for the week from Marc Imperatori, who will be reporting on all the action from Bavaria, so keep checking the site for that, in the meantime, here is the preview.
2015 ATP Munich Preview
BMW Open by FWU AG ATP World Tour 250 Munich, Germany April 27-May 3, 2015 Prize Money: € 439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (3)
2: Gael Monfils (15)*
3: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
4: David Goffin (21)
*Monfils withdrew and was replaced by a lucky loser
All 8 seeds are top 30 players, as Munich has the strongest field by ranking this week.
A good form test for funky Flo Mo, still working his way back from injury, he has beaten Rosol on clay before at a challenger, but he’s lost two straight matches now in Monte Carlo and Bucharest, and will be looking to regain positive momentum on home soil. Rosol is just 1-2 on European clay this year, and is also badly in need of a win in this matchup. It’s hard to predict, but I have Mayer winning myself.
(6)Bernard Tomic vs. (WC)Janko Tipsarevic
Tomic is favored against Tipsarevic, who is also working his way back from injury, that said, Janko has a good chance at an “upset” in this one, Tomic is not a clay court player, and if Tipsarevic was even at half of his peak level he would be the favorite. They have never played before, and Tipsarevic is 2-2 since his comeback, while Tomic lost in round 2 of Monte Carlo. He’s had a reliable season so far, in fact the bets of his career in terms of consistency, but his play in Monte Carlo was worrisome, and I have Tipsarevic in an upset in this one, as he seems to be improving in every match he plays back on tour.
Kohli won a 4 setter against Vesely at the French in 2013, when Jiri was still a raw youngster, now though he’s reached his second career ATP final, coming off last week in Bucharest. His form has been incredibly streaky this season, where he is either winning matches (Auckland, Bucharest) or losing back to back to back (AO-Miami). That said, his form seems to have picked up with clay, while Kohlschreiber has not had a good season, and at 31 he may be slowing down. He did reach the quarters in Barcelona, and perhaps the ace in his pocket in this matchup is he’s a two time champ, so he knows the venue and plays well here. I expect three sets, and Kohlschreiber to edge out a fatigued Vesely in the end.
Top Half:
Newlywed Andy Murray is making his European clay debut in Munich as the top seed, and I’d expect him to defeat German JL Struff or qualifier Mischa Zverev in his opening match. After that, Rosol/Mayer or Sergiy Stakhovsky/lucky loser Mikhail Ledovskikh will also be underdogs against him in the quarters. Stako is not a clay courter, and the lucky loser will have a chance to defeat him, that said, I have Murray over Mayer in the quarters.Of note, though Murray is 2-0 on clay against Flo, Mayer actually beat Murray when he was coming back from back surgery in 2014 in Doha, only this time it’s Mayer coming back from an injury. Overall, with this 250 level event, Murray shouldn’t drop a set before the semis, as it’s an easy draw for him.
3 seed Roberto Bautista Agut will open with Farrukh Dustov, who hasn’t played in a bit, or qualifier Radek Stepanek a fading veteran, like Murray, I’d expect him to get off to an easy start against a weak opponent probably Stepanek, and then have more of a test in the quarters with either Tipsarevic/Tomic, or Viktor Troicki/Victor Estrella. Estrella continues to impress given his age, he beat Dominic Thiem and Marin Cilic in Barcelona to reach the round of 16, and also won a round in Monte Carlo, while Troicki has lost two straight matches. Troicki has a h2h win on indoor hard over Estrella, but I have VEB winning and then beating Tipsarevic as well to reach the quarters, before falling to the Barcelona quarterfinalist RBA who is 4-2 in last two clay court tournaments with a pair of top 30 wins. The seeds should hold and a Murray-RBA semi is likely.
2 seed Gael Monfils withdrew with a knee injury, and thus qualifier Gerald Melzer will take his place. Melzer is likely to matchup with Barcelona finalist Pablo Andujar who made a shock run to the final there (7-4 on clay in 2015), depending if Andujar is tired, and we’ll know based off of how he plays against the struggling Joao Souza, he should reach the quarters, and he’s likely to face Fabio Fognini, who he routined in the Barcelona quarters at that stage. Fognini beat Nadal in Barcelona (for the second time this year), but he’s been pedestrian all season against players not named Nadal, not to mention incredibly erratic. That said he was a finalist here last year so he’s had success, and thus should beat lucky loser Bastian Trinker, and then the Vasek Pospisil/Dominic Thiem winner. Thiem has talent, and he’s done well on clay, but he’s struggling right now, and thus look for Fognini to win, and also beat a fatigued Andujar to reach the semis.
David Goffin will face qualifier Dustin Brown, or Simone Bolelli in his opening match, Bolelli beat Goffin this year on hard courts, and he reached the quarterfinals in Bucharest, while Goffin will seek to improve his clay prospects in just his second tournament on the surface this season. That will be a tough match to pick, and I have Bolelli going through to face the Vesely/Kohlschreiber winner, as Kohli should beat Alex Zverev/Benjamin Becker in round 2, a battle of the German young gun against a veteran German.
Kohli is 2-0 against Bolelli on clay, and given his previous success here, I have the veteran German into the semis.
Bolelli has a chance to reach the final presuming he can upset Goffin, Kohlschreiber/Vesely, and perhaps Monfils (or Fognini/Thiem) in the semis. He just lost to Monfils in Bucharest, and would have to flip the script to do that, that said he’s a talented shotmaker who can have good runs of success on clay, consistency has been his primary issue.
Predictions
Semis: Murray d. Bautista Agut
Kohlschreiber d. Fognini
Murray has never played RBA on clay, that said, even though clay is his worst surface, the Spaniard hasn’t been a world beater as of late and thus I’d give a consistent Murray, who has been great against all but elite players the edge.
Kohli has a 2-1 h2h against Fognini, and their clay court h2h is split 1-1, Fognini may be in better form, but he’s terribly unreliable, and Kohlschreiber tends to play well in Munich, thus I have him through.
Final: Murray d. Kohlschreiber
Look for Murray to get his first clay court title this week with the withdrawal of Monfils, he beat Kohli in a thriller at RG last year, and he’s outperformed the German in terms of level of play this season.
