2015 ATP Istanbul Preview Steen Kirby and Ahmet Fevzi Guclu, Tennis Atlantic
Tennis Atlantic is pleased to have credentialed media coverage of the inaugural ATP Istanbul tournament, held in the suburbs of diverse, and modern city of Istanbul, Turkey. For years, Turkey has done the tennis world a service by having a variety of futures and challenger tour events, and now they have the ATP event they deserve, and this one of course is on clay, part of the European spring clay court season. We will have daily reports and interviews from the tournament all week long.
2015 ATP Istanbul Preview
TEB BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour 250
Istanbul, Turkey
April 27-May 3, 2015
Prize Money: € 439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Santiago Giraldo (31)
Istanbul has two top players, and the seed cutoff is 61, not bad for a maiden ATP event.
Ilhan, the top Turkish ATP player, who reached a career high ranking this year inside the top 80, has a chance to score a win against Nieminen, an accomplished but struggling veteran at the moment. Ilhan reached a clay court final at a challenger in Turkey, and also won a round in Barcelona before losing to Feliciano Lopez in a third set tiebreak. He has a positive record on clay at a lower level than ATP, and also reached the quarters in Dubai this year on hard court. Nieminen has lost two straight, and has yet to win consecutive matches since the AO. Given his experience, Nieminen is a slight favorite, but he’s not at his best on clay, and Ilhan should have home support that should be a boost to him.
Damir Dzumhur vs. (WC)Andrey Rublev
A battle of young guns, the 22 year old Dzumhur was a semifinalist in Casablanca, and also has a challenger title on clay this year. Rublev shocked Fernando Verdasco as a qualifier in Barcelona and is in good form, he also pushed Fabio Fognini to 3 sets in the next round. This year, the 17 year old already has 3 ATP main draw wins, and he’s rising up the ranks. Dzumhur has more experience, but Rublev has a higher ceiling, and I see him advancing from this matchup.
AHM just beat Dodig in 3 sets in Bucharest (6-4 in the third), and they will get a rematch a few days later. As expected, their matchup in Bucharest was quite the battle, and both guys should be itching to go at it again. AHM has seen some of the best results of his career this season, while Dodig continues to struggle, though he’s foguth hard in most of his matches this season. AHM should be the fave but I again expect it to be close.
Top Half:
Roger Federer is a strong favorite here, even though he lost in Monte Carlo to Monfils, and he will open with the Ilhan/Nieminen winner. If Ilhan wins, our on-site reporter Ahmet Fevzi Guclu expects the crowd to be split between the home favorite Turk and the fan favorite Federer, that said, Federer should ease into the quarters, and also dispatch most likely Daniel Gimeno-Traver to reach the semis.
DGT opens with 19 year old Turkish wild card Cem Ilkel, and similar to the journeyman Haider-Maurer, he’s had a surprise career year, late in his career. He reached the final in Casablanca, and the semis in Bucharest, and has wins over Jiri Vesely, Viktor Troicki, and Gilles Simon in the past few weeks. After Ilkel, his opponent will be either Mikhail Kukushkin, or a qualifier, and Thanasi Kokkinakis is lurking in the qualifying draw. Kukushkin is just 2-3 in his last five matches on clay, so he’s vulnerable to a defeat, DGT has won their last two meetings on clay, and hence he’s the favorite for the quarters, in this weak section.
4 seed Santiago Giraldo will be vulnerable to defeat against the Dzumhur/Rublev winner, after a career year last year, he’s been average at best this season, even on clay. I still have him going through in my own bracket, but that round 2 match should be competitive. 8 seed Diego Schwartzman will open with a qualifier, and then the Steve Darcis/Jurgen Melzer winner. Neither Melzer nor Darcis are in good form, Darcis may have the slightest of edges though as Melzer has struggled for quite a while. Schwartzman qualified in Monte Carlo but has been forgettable on clay this year, with just 1 main draw win on the surface (1-6), again he may be vulnerable to being upset by a qualifier. Giraldo may well make the semis if he can survive his round 2 match, simply because the section below is so unreliable, thus I have him in the semis over Darcis.
2 seed Grigor Dimitrov has not had a good season in 2015, but he still should be good enough to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili or Andrey Golubev in his opening match. Golubev is on a three match losing streak, and Basilashvili, who won his first ATP match earlier this year, has lost two straight, he’s primarily a challenger player though he’s been rising onto the fringe of the ATP level. Golubev is a slight fave to win that match, but should have little chance against Dimitrov. Look for Andreas Haider-Maurer to reach the quarters, with wins over Dodig and Dusan Lajovic/qualifier. Lajovic is 5-5 on clay this season, but he’s just 1-2 in his last three matches on the surface. AHM and Dimitrov have never played before, but the Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Dimitrov should advance to the semis given the talent discrepancy.
Pablo Cuevas will face Andrey Kuznetsov or a qualifier in round 2, he lost in round 2 of Barcelona, as did Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov, who qualified in Monte Carlo as well, should beat the qualifier, but Cuevas will be the favorite in their first head-to-head meaning, again given the difference in ranking and ability. In the quarters, Cuevas could face a difficult opponent, either Thomaz Bellucci or Benoit Paire. Bellucci will open with Mikhail Youzhny, who won a match in Bucharest before falling in round 2. Bellucci has won their last two meetings, and given how poor Youzhny has been this season, I expect him to do so for a third consecutive time. The Brazilian also won a round in Barcelona. Benoit Paire, who qualified in Monte Carlo, won a round, and then won two matches in Barcelona as well, will open against the struggling Denis Istomin. Bellucci and Paire have never met, but given current form, I have Paire winning to reach the quarters, and then upsetting Cuevas to reach the semis. They have never met before.
Dark Horse: Benoit Paire
Paire has always had the talent, and he’s reached two previous ATP finals (former top 30), however his mental side has been what is unreliable, along with a poor forehand. He’s rounding back into form this year and is nearly back in the top 70, with recent improvement in results, this 250 level event is where he can finally shine and announce his return to the main tour spotlight. Istomin, Bellucci, and Cuevas are all beatable in order, and Dimitrov is a weaker seed than Federer, in the bottom half. That would be a monumental upset ranking wise, but Paire has beaten Dimitrov twice before (2-1 h2h), giving him a dark horse shot at an ATP final.
Predictions
Semis: Federer d. Giraldo
Dimitrov d. Paire
Federer is 2-0 against Giraldo, though they have never met on clay, and as mentioned, Dimitrov has a negative h2h against Paire, but still has to be the favorite to prevail, as he’s developed better in the past couple of years.
Final: Federer d. Dimitrov
Fed routined Dimitrov in Brisbane this year, and is 3-0 against him, Dimitrov has never taken a set against a more accomplished player of a similar style, and thus he should take this 250 title.
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview
The first Masters event of the 2015 ATP World Tour Season is here, as it’s time for the celebrated, modern, BNP Paribas Open from the sweltering hard courts of the California desert in Indian Wells. I’m not as fond of Larry Ellison’s oasis in the desert as many fans and players are, but all the same the season is beginning to kick into high gear as all but a handful of the worlds best men’s tennis players will be battling for points, prize money and prestige over the next two weeks.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
March 12-March 22, 2015
Prize Money: $5.381,235
Indian Wells put up even more cash this year, as prize money increased by over half a million dollars compared to 2014.
Top 8 seeds (All 32 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Rafael Nadal (3)
4: Andy Murray (4)
5: Kei Nishkori (5)
6: Milos Raonic (6)
7: Stan Wawrinka (7)
8: David Ferrer (8)
Notable players missing Indian Wells include a pair of top Frenchmen, Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who are joined in absence by David Goffin, Lleyton Hewitt, Leonardo Mayer, and Nicolas Almagro.
First round matchups to watch:
Jan–Lennard Struff vs. (WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Both players come off putting in hard work in the Davis Cup over the weekend. Kokkinakis helped lead Australia to a victory in their tie, while Struff put in a valiant effort but lost to Gilles Simon in 5 sets. Struff has a h2h win on clay, but he’s just 4-7 on the season in all competitive matches. Kokkinakis by contrast has been on the rise with a 12-5 record in the same span including three straight qualifications for ATP main draw events in Memphis, Delray Beach and Acapulco, all on hard courts. Struff should make this match closer than expected but the young gun Australian should prevail.
Kukushkin beat Pospisil at Indian Wells last year in straights, and he may be on track to do so again this year after two massive straight set wins over top 50 players Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi in Davis Cup over the weekend to help his nation clinch their tie. The unpredictable, and undersized ballstriker Kukushkin, who has an ATP hard court final on his resume this season (Sydney), snapped a four match losing streak with those Davis Cup wins. Pospisil by contrast went 1-1 in Davis Cup play, and has only won consecutive matches this year in one tournament, the Australian Open, resulting in an even .500 record. Pospisil certainly has the ability on this surface, but I’m endorsing the upset this time and picking Kukushkin to reach round 2.
Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Kyrgios, three years the junior of Kudla, should be able to beat the American wild card, but Denis has shown some good form at points this season, and Kyrgios is playing his first tournament since the Australian Open, having taken time off to recover from a back injury. Kyrgios is without a doubt the more talented player, but he will need to deal with the California weather conditions, and may have some rust in his game, so Kudla could give himself belief if he could strike while the iron is hot and get off to a confident start. All eyes will be on Kyrgios this year as he begins to play the Masters level full-time, and the journey this time around will begin with a young American on home soil, drawing even more attention the match. As we all know, Kyrgios feasts off the attention.
Querrey is 3-0, including 1-0 on outdoor hard against Stakhovsky, and that’s probably why he’s the bookies favorite for this one, but he’s been in terrible form but all but one tournament this season, with round 1 exits in every tournament but Memphis. Stako meanwhile had a top class month of February, reaching two 500 level quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Dubai, and a semifinal in Marseille sandwiched in between. The Californian Sam Q should be better adapted to the conditions, but I have Stakhovsky winning this one, perhaps quite comfortably. His game has been greatly improved this year overall based upon the two month sample size.
The American wild card Krajicek, who has had a career year in 2015, has another great shot at notching an upset over an ATP regular. Istomin happens to be in poor form, with just a 3-7 ATP record on the season. Krajicek by contrast qualified and reached the quarterfinals in Memphis, pushing Kei Nishikori to 3 sets, and also qualified in Acapulco. With the home crowd sure to be behind him, the former Texas A&M standout will still need to play his best to have a chance, but momentum, and venue favor him, and thus I have Krajicek, an unheralded American, into round 2 over Istomin.
Jack Sock vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A battle of baselining ball strikers, the 22 year old American Sock is returning from hip surgery, and this is his first tournament of 2015. The 31 year old Lu has had a decent season with two ATP hard court quarterfinals (Chennai and Delray) on his resume. Lu is never going to wow or shock, his game simply is what it is, good but not great, and relatively weaponless but reliable. Sock by contrast has a gifted forehand but has had to work develop the other parts of his game to compliment that natural gift. He’s matured at the ATP level over time, when previously opponents were able to exploit his weaker backhand and poor fitness, and before the hip surgery was on an upward trend overall. This is really just a form test for Sock, and Lu, given how reliably bland he is, is actually not the best matchup for a player coming back from injury, because he is likely to be steadier than his opponent who will be feeling his way back into ATP level matches. Lu should advance, likely in 3 sets.
Three time, and defending Indian Wells champ Novak Djokovic will open with the winner of Jiri Vesely vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Vesely has been in awful form since winning his maiden ATP title, and a Baghdatis victory should extend his losing streak to six straight matches, as Vesely also lost in Davis Cup over the weekend. The Cypriot veteran has been in good form overall this year with no opening round exits in any tournament, and he’s also 2-0 in the h2h record. Djokovic is 4-0 on hard courts against Baghdatis (7-0 overall with the last meeting taking place in 2012), and shouldn’t have any issue reaching the third round, where his Davis Cup teammate Viktor Troicki is likely to be his next opponent. Troicki, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup most recently, and has an ATP title along with two quarterfinals on his resume should defeat dirtballer Albert Ramos, and 25 seed Julien Benneteau who has been in poor form in singles this year. Benny has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts against Troicki but he has only won 1 match this season. Djokovic has dominated Troicki in the h2h, posting a 10-0 hard court record against the Serb who is two years his senior. I don’t expect Djokovic to drop a set before the round of 16.
16 seed Kevin Anderson likewise shouldn’t have too much competition going into the round of 16, Neither Federico Delbonis or Dusan Lajovic, his possible round 2 opponents are good hard court players. Anderson also had a good stroke of luck with the fact that the other seed in his section is 18 seed John Isner, the top American player. Isner, a former finalist at IW, has been in awful form this season, and suffered further blows to his confidence, and emotional well-being with two brutal Davis Cup losses in Glasgow that cost Team USA the tie. Isner is just 3-5 at the ATP level this year with egregious losses to James Ward most recently, and also Marinko Matosevic on home soil in Delray Beach, on outdoor hard.
I could see Isner losing to a qualifier (American Dennis Novikov or veteran Jurgen Melzer) in round 2, but if he does get through that match (he’s 1-2 on hard courts against likely round 2 opponent Melzer), a favorable h2h of 6-3 on hard courts against Anderson should at least give him hope, especially since he’s won the last four meetings between the pair. No matter, look for Anderson, who has an ATP final, and two ATP semifinals, all on hard courts, the most recent one coming in Acapulco, on his resume in 2015, to improve that h2h by 1 win, and setup a meeting with Djokovic.
David Ferrer has a flawless three ATP titles this season (Doha, Rio, Acapulco), and he has only lost one match on the season (to Kei Nishikori in Melbourne). He’s likely to get a rematch from Acapulco against 32 seed Bernard Tomic in round 3. Ferrer will need to defeat either Joao Sousa or Ivan Dodig in round 2 (Sousa in my bracket), while Tomic will need to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer or qualifier Borna Coric, most likely the qualifier Coric to set that up. Coric, who was coming off of Davis Cup duty, had to save match points to qualify for IW, and he was a semifinalist at the 500 level in Dubai. His match will Tomic will get a lot of attention, and it should be quality, but I feel Tomic is the more mature young gun, who is also in better form, and that along with being fresher should be enough to put the young Aussie over the young Croat. Tomic’s junkballing should also frustrate Coric.
As mentioned, Ferrer just beat Tomic in 3 sets in Acapulco, and prior to that Ferrer had won both their hard court meetings in 2 sets. The veteran Spaniard has been at his best thus far in 2015, and is a strong favorite to reach the last 16.
Marin Cilic, will begin his 2015 campaign in Indian Wells, coming off of a shoulder injury, and without any tournament play in 2015. The Croat, who had a major breakthrough in 2014, claiming the US Open title, his maiden slam, will get his first match against either Juan Monaco or Teymuraz Gabashvili. Gabashvili is on a four match losing streak, while Monaco has been in good form, all be it on South American clay. Cilic has a lone hard court h2h win 7 years ago against Monaco, and though rust is likely, and his form may be shaky, on a hard court surface, he should still be good enough to get past a declined Monaco. A more stern test is certain in the third round, as the Kokkinakis/Struff winner could be his opponent, or the unpredictable Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. First off, if Kokkinakis can get past Struff, and upset GGL, I feel his form will be good enough to also notch a top 20 win and upset Cilic, given the Croat number one is almost certain to be rusty. However, I also see GGL reaching the fourth round if he can beat Kokkinakis/Struff. GGL has beaten Cilic at Indian Wells before, and he has an ATP title among other good results this year. This is a hard to predict section, and in my own bracket I’m going with Garcia-Lopez over both Kokkinakis and CIlic to setup a round of 16 match with Ferrer, though either Cilic or Kokkinakis reaching the round of 16 would not shock me. I feel Kokkinakis may be emotionally spent from his Davis Cup triumph from 2 sets down, which was the key result that led to an Australian victory in the tie.
A one time finalist at Indian Wells, Andy Murray comes off doing a tremendous job in Davis Cup duty for team GB on indoor hard, having returned to the top 5 in the ATP rankings as well. Murray will have a difficult opening match against the Kukushkin/Pospisil winner, and should he show any signs of vulnerability, I could see Pospisil, or more likely Kukushkin pouncing and making it a match. Kukushkin has pushed Murray to three sets before, and as mentioned above, he was in peak form for Davis Cup while Murray has two h2h wins over Pospisil over the last two seasons, both close straight set matches. I’m not predicting an upset myself, but Murray’s opening match will be good viewing at minimum. Murray has had two early awful losses this year to Borna Coric in Dubai and Gilles Simon in Rotterdam, but his Davis Cup form was much better than those matches, and they are most likely aberrations rather than a worrying sign of things to come. Look for Murray to get past his third rounder as well, the seeded opponent would be Philipp Kohlschreiber, but Kohli is in poor form and really has been all year (3-6 on the season), most recently coming off Davis Cup play. American wild card Tim Smyczek has a nice chance at the third round, if he can get past ball striking grinder Benjamin Becker, and then upset Kohlschreiber. I have Becker in the third round in my own bracket, with wins over Smyczek and Kohlschreiber, his Davis Cup teammate. Becker most recently pushed Bernard Tomic to 3 sets in Acapulco. Murray should be untroubled by Becker or any other player though and reach the round of 16 this week.
14 seed Ernests Gulbis is in atrocious form. He hasn’t won a match in 2015, and he may be better off playing challengers to build his confidence at this point, rather than Masters events. I’m just about certain Gulbis will lose to either qualifier Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a veteran dirtballer, or Sam Groth in round 2. The big serving Groth has been steadily improving his game up to an ATP caliber level of play, and his rhythm on serve should frustrate a struggling Gulbis should they meet. With the qualifers placed, I’d place Groth into third round, with a shot at the round of 16, given that the other seed here is the 19 seed Fabio Fognini. Fogna has been in horrendous form on hard courts for months, and he most recently cost Italy their Davis Cup tie against Kazakhstan with a massive choke against challenger level player Alex Nedovyesov. I see Fognini struggling in a loss to either qualifier Mischa Zverev (who won the pre-qualifying tournament, then qualified) or Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino destroyed Fognini at the US Open last fall, and he posted an ATP semi in Delray, along with a final in Auckland as he’s an extremely streaky player to who can post big results and this lose consecutive matches early on in tournaments. Mannarino and Groth, which could be a very strange match for the third round of Masters event, have met twice prior, and split meetings on hard courts. Remarkably, I’d put Mannarino into the fourth round with a small edge in another difficult to predict section.
5 seed Kei Nishikori, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup play after reaching the final in Acapulco and winning Memphis in recent weeks, will open with the winner of Mardy Fish/Ryan Harrison. Nishikori beat Milos Raonic in Davis Cup, and appears to be streaking right now, having worked his way into the top 5, very much deserving that status. Fish/Harrison is one of the most over-hyped round 1 matches I’ve seen in quite some time, as it’s been given stadium 1 billing for Thursday. Fish hasn’t played a competitive tournament singles match since 2013, between psychological and health problems with his heart. Harrison meanwhile had one of the best results of his career with a run to the semifinals in Acapulco that included a win over top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov. I see no reason why Harrison wouldn’t routine Fish in a match that may end in a retirement, but Nishikori should beat him in round 2 and reach the third round, as he did in Memphis in 3 sets. As for his third round opponent, 28 seed Fernando Verdasco will face Dominic Thiem or qualifier James Duckworth in round 2. Duckworth is in great form, as he qualified after previously reaching a hard court challenger final in India. Still, Thiem is the superior talent and is likely to stave off the possible upset to setup a meeting with Verdasco. Verdasco and Thiem have never met, but Verdasco is perhaps slightly better at the moment, though his form has been very much average. Verdasco beat Nishikori in straights at the 2011 Aussie Open, but the tables have entirely turned since that match, and Nishikori is a much more complete player now, barring the conditions getting to him, I fully expect to see Kei into the round of 16.
12 seed Feliciano Lopez will open with Marinko Matosevic, whose form appears to be getting a bit better in recent weeks, or lucky loser Edouard Roger-Vasselin. I don’t expect Feli to have too much trouble reaching the round of 16 this week, as his third round opponent is most likely to be qualifier Thiemo De Bakker or Jarkko Nieminen in a weak section. Nieminen is decent, even at his age, on hard courts, while De Bakker, who is talented but a noted underachiever, appears to be near the cusp of a breakthrough back on the ATP stage, as he’s been doing well in ATP qualifying. Still, Lopez is better than every player in his section in terms of talent and form, and I have Lopez over De Bakker for a spot in the round of 16. The winner of Nieminen/De Bakker faces 20 seed Pablo Cuevas, who much prefers clay and comes off Davis Cup duty, in round 2. Interestingly for Lopez, he’s 0-1 against De Bakker on hard courts, and 1-3 against Nieminen likewise, he’s also had shock losses to Victor Estrella, Aljaz Bedene and Marsel Ilhan in 2015, all lower ranked journeymen (though he was sick against Ilhan in Dubai).
The three time former IW champion, Rafael Nadal, who seems to like the slow, high bouncing hard courts the venue offers up, will open up another hard court campaign against Igor Sijsling or qualifier Filip Krajinovic. Krajinovic surprisingly qualified on a hard court and has won three straight matches dating back to Davis Cup for Serbia, while Sijsling has lost four straight. I expect Nadal, who won a title on clay a couple of weeks ago in Buenos Aires, to cruise through to the third round no matter whom he faces in round 2. Rafa could get a bit of a contest from fellow lefty Donald Young at that stage. Young, who played poorly in Davis Cup, had a career month in February with an ATP final and an ATP semifinal in Delray and Memphis. He should be able to score wins over dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then a pedestrian Jeremy Chardy, who has been unfortunate to have some tough draws this season though his record is floating around .500 on the year. Nadal beat the American Young 6-1 6-3 at IW in 2008, though his hard court form has been shaky since this time last year (he hasn’t even reached a hard court semifinal since Miami 2014), he still should play well enough to get into the round of 16. Though Nadal isn’t really in the conversation for the champion of a hard court masters event right now, he’s still better than all but top 10 players on the surface as a general rule.
The section above Nadal featuring a pair of French seeds, Davis Cup hero Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet is intriguing. Simon should beat Tatsuma Ito or Malek Jaziri with ease (Ito should be favored over Jaziri given Jaziri has lost five straight matches while Ito has a challenger final and a challenger semi since the AO, and comes off of Davis Cup duty). While Gasquet is the favorite against one of two admirable veterans, qualifier Michael Berrer, or Victor Estrella. Berrer is retiring after this season, though the serve and volleying German has played well (beat Nadal in Doha, qualified for both Zagreb and IW), and Estrella comes off Davis Cup duty, and has won both his maiden ATP title (on clay), and a challenger title (on hard courts) this season. I have Estrella over Berrer, and then Gasquet over Estrella, though Estrella shocked Gasquet in Bogota on outdoor hard courts last season. Gasquet has two ATP quarterfinals and an ATP title this year, while Simon has a title and a semi. Gasquet leads the h2h with Simon on hard courts 4-1, and is more skilled and aesthetically pleasing than the defensively strong counterpuncher Simon. I expect a three setter, and while I picked Gasquet myself, a Simon win would not surprise me either.
6 seed Milos Raonic will get a chance at revenge if he faces Simone Bolelli in round 2, Bolelli beat him in Marseille this year (though Raonic won their meeting a week prior in Rotterdam). Bolelli has played well for points this year, but he played erratically, spraying errors in the Davis Cup for Italy over the weekend, and thus I don’t give him much of a chance against Raonic, though he should still beat Thomaz Bellucci, who struggled as well in Davis Cup for Brazil). The difference is Bellucci was playing on clay in his tie, and still played poorly, while Bolelli is superior on hard courts. Look for Raonic, who went for 1-1 in Davis Cup singles play for Canada over the weekend, to take out Santiago Giraldo or Alex Dolgopolov for a spot in the round of 16. Giraldo comes off Davis Cup duty, and hasn’t done much spectacular this year, while Dolgopolov is struggling compared to the form he was in this time last year. Dolgo will face qualifier Frank Dancevic before the 29 seed Giraldo who he has beaten twice on grass. Though Dolgo is unlikely to trouble Raonic, he has beaten Giraldo twice on grass and reached consecutive ATP quarterfinals in Delray Beach and Acapulco. Dolgo beat Raonic in the IW quarterfinals last year in their only meeting, but as mentioned, that was a vastly different Dolgo than his current self, and Raonic has proven himself to be reliable in the Masters series events against all but the top 10.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov, who took part in an exo at Madison Square Garden in New York on Wednesday night, is going to have some trouble in his opening match, as he will face the Kyrgios/Kudla winner. Kyrgios, assuming his form is ok (as we will find out from his match against Kudla) has to be the favorite given Dimitrov has been poor in ATP matches this year, including recent losses to Gilles Muller in Rotterdam and Ryan Harrison in Acapulco. Dimitrov has been lacking killer instinct, and passion with his tennis this year, two things that Kyrgios has in excess, meaning the Bulgarian’s chances are slim in my mind against the teenage Aussie. Look for Kyrgios to also blow past his third round opponent, as Dustin Brown and Andrey Golubev are both journeymen, with Golubev coming off of DC duty, and 17 seed Tommy Robredo has very much struggled this season. Robredo beat Kyrgios at the 2014 US Open but he’s just 3-5 on the season, and age may well be catching up to him.
Federer’s section:
Roger Federer, a four time Indian Wells champion, the defending finalist, and most recently, the champion in Dubai, will open his 2015 IW campaign against Jerzy Janowicz or Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, as he stares down a challenging draw if he is to reach at least the semifinals. Janowicz , who has an ATP final this year and played excellent in Davis Cup duty for Poland over the weekend, played him well on clay in Rome in 2013, and appears to be in improved form compared to his play in 2014. Still, one has to expect Federer to find a way past the big serving Polish number one, given how well the Swiss is playing himself. After that, Andreas Seppi, who upset him at the Australian Open, is his likely round 3 opponent. Seppi will face a veteran in round 2, as Mikhail Youzhny and qualifier Victor Hanescu will battle for the right to face the 30 seed. Youzhny has a slight 2-1 hard court h2h edge over the Romanian, though both players who are 30+, are greatly declined from their heyday in the 2000s. Hanescu has been reduced to playing ATP qualies, while Youzhny has just two wins this year. Surprisingly, Youzhny is 4-0 against Seppi on hard courts, including a win last year in Cincy, and the Italian did not play well in Davis Cup, but still he’s had a solid year already in 2015, and with a second week showing in Australia and an ATP final on his resume this year, he has to be trusted to right the ship. Still, look for Federer to get his revenge, perhaps comfortably, and dispatch Seppi for a spot in the round of 16.
15 seed Roberto Bautista Agut faces a draw that will have him face the Istomin/Krajicek winner in round 1, and then one of Sock/Lu or Gilles Muller (who replaced Leo Mayer in the draw as a seed) in round 3. I have RBA over Krajicek rather comfortably, and then over Muller as well, as Muller, who has played well in 2015, should be favored over Lu or Sock, as his serve should disrupt their rhythm and overwhelm them. Muller is 3-3 in his career on hard court against Lu, and he won their most recent meeting last year. Muller beat RBA at the AO this year, and he has won both their hard court meetings, but it’s a competitive matchup and RBA has two ATP semifinals on his record this year. I feel these courts suit his game well.
7 seed Stan Wawrinka will open with a slumping Robin Haase or qualifier Alex Bolt, who is making his ATP main draw debut against the Dutchman. I have Bolt over Haase given that Haase is 0-7 in 2015, while Bolt has an ATP challenger final and semifinal on his resume already and scored to quality wins in qualifying. Wawrinka has a very easy draw, as his round 3 opponent will be most likely the talented but erratic ballbasher Martin Klizan. Klizan opens with dirtballer Pablo Andujar, and then will face 27 seed Lukas Rosol, who is in the midst of a six match losing streak. Klizan in the third round is mostly just the luck of the draw, rather than being particularly deserved, and I don’t see Wawrinka dropping a set before the round of 16.
9 seed Tomas Berdych has a much more challenging path to the fourth round, he will face the Querrey/Stakhovsky winner round 2, and though he’s 4-0 on hard courts against Stako, including a win this year in Dubai in 3 sets, playing an in-form opponent is still never easy. Berdych has made the semifinals or better at every single tournament he’s played a match in this season, but has no titles from that, which is why he’s been posting quality results under the radar. Berdych against Steve Johnson or 21 seed Ivo Karlovic in round 3 promises to be interesting. Karlovic has an ATP title (Delray), quarterfinal and semifinal on his record this season, and is playing well. Johnson, who played his college tennis at USC and is very much a southern California boy, has been much improved under the radar, already posting three ATP quarterfinals this year, the most recent of which came in Delray Beach, where his run was ended by Karlovic. Johnson, like Berdych, has been posting his quality results under the radar, but at Indian Wells his matches are sure to get attention, including his opening contest with veteran Marcel Granollers who he beat in 3 sets in Tokyo on hard courts last year. Johnson has beaten Karlovic twice before, even with that Delray loss, and he should be motivated to do perform at his best in California, with that in mind I have him reaching the third round to face Berdych who he has never played before. He’ll have an upset chance, but Berdych has been a tough opponent to face this year, and thus the battle tested Czech should reach the round of 16.
Dark Horses: Thanasi Kokkinakis, Mikhail Kukushkin, Nick Kyrgios, Steve Johnson
Teens Kokkinakis and Kyrgios, could, or should in the case of Kyrgios, reach the round of 16. As mentioned, Kokkinakis will need to beat Struff and Garcia-Lopez, then likely Cilic to setup a meeting with Ferrer, who is likely to be too much for him at this stage in his career. Kyrgios, the other half of “special-K’ from Down Under, has a path of Kudla, Dimitrov, and then Robredo/Golubev/Brown, to setup a meeting with Raonic, who I also think will be too much (Raonic beat him at both Wimbledon and the French last year), but who knows, Kyrgios is known to rise the occasion.
Kukushkin would need to shock Murray, after scoring perhaps a minor upset over Pospisil, but should be pull off that double, he could go as far as the quarterfinals as the rest of the section is very weak (Smyczek/Kohlschreiber/Becker round 3, Mannarino/Groth/Fognini/Gulbis round of 16). Johnson has the toughest road to the round of 16, as he would need to beat big servers Karlovic and Berdych to earn the right to face a very tough opponent in Wawrinka.
Djokovic isn’t his best against big servers but he’s 2-1 against Anderson and still should advance in straights, Ferrer is in great form, and has dominated GGL in the h2h record, Murray has a weak section and shouldn’t drop a set to his round of 16 opponent, Nishikori is 2-1 on hard courts against Lopez and in better form, Raonic as mentioned has the edge on Kyrgios, Nadal dominates Gasquet in the h2h as the Frenchman has a mental block against him, Wawrinka has won the last five meetings against Berdych on a hard court, including a win in the Rotterdam final this year, and thus should win again if they meet. Last but not least, Federer beat RBA twice last year on a hard court.
Quarters: Djokovic d Ferrer
Nishikori d. Murray
Raonic d. Nadal
Federer d. Wawrinka
No matter how well Ferrer is playing, Djokovic is a bit of an unstoppable force, and he has won their last six hard court meetings since 2012, it could well be a three setter, and I wouldn’t count Ferrer out but Novak has to be the intelligent pick. Murray was 3-0 all on hard courts, before losing to Nishikori at the World Tour Finals last year, but I see that matchup as a 50/50 type of decision, and Nishikori should be slightly fresher going into it, with that in mind I have Kei slipping through, perhaps in 3.
Nadal is 4-0 on hard courts against Raonic, but Raonic is one of those top tier hard court players that should very much give this current version of Nadal trouble, with that in mind, I have him earning his first h2h win in the matchup to reach the semifinals. Wawrinka has never beaten his celebrated countryman in 11 hard court meetings, though their matches have become closer and more competitive over time, Federer should be the favorite and I see no weaknesses in his game that suggest to me he’ll lose before the final.
Semis: Djokovic d. Nishikori
Federer d. Raonic
Nishikori of course shocked Novak at the US Open, but Djokovic won both their hard court meetings after that, and given a neutral venue such as Indian Wells, Djokovic has to be something like a 60/40 favorite. Nishikori has a strong enough game to generate chances, and pounce if Novak struggles, but the match is still on Novak’s racquet as to how it will go. Given I’m buying into the Serbian’s form, I have him reaching the final this week.
Federer is 5-1, including a win in the Brisbane outdoor hard court final this year, against Raonic, and he’s striking the ball and moving well, so I have a feeling no matter how well Raonic can play on his serve, Federer will return too well and have too much to go down in defeat before the final.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer upset Djokovic in Dubai, a fast low bouncing surface compared to IW, but Djokovic has won both their IW meetings, including a thrilling final last year, in three sets. The surface should favor his game against the more aggressive Federer, who likes the courts quick, even though it’s a razor call when these two meet. If you watched that Dubai encounter, it’s not that Federer was flawless, as Djokovic generated chances and could have won that match, but he simply didn’t play well enough in key moments to do so, and that was the difference. These two know each other well and it’s never a surprise when they battle in what are always world class matchups, it’s simply a matter of execution on a certain day, rather than skill or style, as to who the winner will be.
2015 ATP Rotterdam, Memphis, Sao Paulo Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The traditional Rotterdam 500 level indoor hard tournament takes place this week, along with the US indoor tournament in Memphis, and the clay court event in Sao Paulo, which got switched around on the calendar this year. Both of those tournaments are 250 level events. Here is a preview of all the action as indoor tennis heats up and the Golden Swing rolls on.
ATP Rotterdam
2015 ATP Rotterdam Preview
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (4)
2: Milos Raonic (6)
3: Tomas Berdych (7)
4: Stan Wawrinka (9)
A stacked field with 6 of the top 15, there are also a host of unseeded and lower seeded players who can play great on hard courts as Rotterdam has yet again attracted a fantastic field for a 500 level event.
Vasek Pospisil vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber Pospisil hurt himself again in Australia, and he hasn’t performed as well historically indoors as he has on outdoor hard, but even still he’s a difficult opponent for the veteran Kohlschreiber in round 1. The German comes off a loss to Joao Sousa in Montpellier. He’s yet to win consecutive matches this season as his form has been up and down, that said Kohlschreiber should be the better performer indoors and having played more matches of late should help him advance to round 2.
(8)Gilles Simon vs. Joao Sousa Many would presume the Portugese number one Sousa is better on clay, but in fact he’s had some of his best career results on hard courts at the ATP level, and especially indoors. The veteran Simon comes off a loss to Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals of Montpellier and has yet to do anything notable in 2015. Sousa faded against Janowicz in the semis of Montpellier and fatigue could well play a factor but he’s 5-3 in 2015, all on hard courts and none of his losses were poor, so I’m going with the upset and picking Sousa to reach R2.
(3)Tomas Berdych vs. Jerzy Janowicz The defending Champion has a difficult match scheduled in round 1, as you rarely see an early round match with both players in such great form. Berdych of course reached the semifinals at Australian Open with a notable win over Nadal, and before that he had reached the final of Doha by demolishing all opponents in his wake (including Richard Gasquet and Andreas Seppi). Janowicz is already showing signs of improvement in 2015, after a dismal 2014. He’s reached the final of Montpellier and he also reached the third round at the AO (notably beating Gael Monfils in 5). History favors Berdych though. The big hitting Czech is 3-0 in the h2h, including a win last year in Rotterdam over the big hitting Pole, and though all of those matches were tight three set encounters, Janowicz has fatigue working against him, and retired due to illness in Montpellier, while Berdych should be fresh, thus he should survive the upset alert.
(5)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q)Paul-Henri Mathieu
Dimitrov lost their only h2h meeting in straights (2012 Basel indoors) and he comes off quarterfinals in Melbourne. Mathieu, the mentally shaky veteran, beat Jurgen Melzer to qualify after pushing Philipp Kohlschreiber to 3 sets in Montpellier. Mathieu is a bit of an indoor hard court specialist these days, and it’s not an easy matchup for Dimitrov, I still expect him to advance but it could go three sets.
David Goffin vs. Gilles Muller Goffin, who hails from just over the border in Belgium, and is nearly playing in a home event, (like the Luxembourger Muller is a fellow Benelux), has yet to catch fire in 2015 after his rise in 2014 into a consistent ATP player. D Goff is just 3-3 in 2015 and has yet to beat a player with a top 50 ranking. Muller, who can do a lot of damage with his cracking serve indoors was shown the door by Ricardas Berankis in Zagreb in 3 sets after reaching the second week in Australia. Muller has kept himself busy thus far this year, having played every week on tour, but his gamestyle doesn’t lend himself to exhaustion, and with Goffin yet to put the pieces together this year, I’m going with an upset and have Muller into round 2. They have never met, and we’ll see if Goffin can keep his game under control under assault from Muller’s steady dose of serve and volleying.
Top Half:
AO finalist Andy Murray, who has won the title here before, opens with qualifier Nicolas Mahut, then the Pospisil/Kohlschreiber winner. Mahut isn’t too dangerous so Murray should be safe in that one. Murray has never played Kohli indoors, and he beat Pospisil last year in Vienna. As well he has started his season, I don’t expect the UK number one to have any problems reaching the quarterfinals to setup a meeting with most likely the Sousa/Simon winner. Julian Benneteau, who has indoor success, and Jeremy Chardy, are also possible opponents, but all the same Murray can’t really complain about his path to the semifinals. He demolished Sousa in Melbourne and has only lost once in a dozen meetings against Simon. I have Sousa into the quarters with wins over Simon and Benneteau. Sousa denied Benneteau a maiden ATP title in Kuala Lumpur indoors in 2013, taking the title himself.
Berdych/Janowicz will face Robin Haase/Andreas Seppi in round 2. Berdych beat Seppi in Doha, and the Italian, who is on a tear so far in 2015, is likely to be fatigued from his current final, and possible title in Zagreb. Haase continues to be pedestrian, so Berdych should get past Seppi for the quarters and setup a meeting with perhaps Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA opens with young gun German WC Alex Zverev, and then Gael Monfils or fellow French qualifier Edouard Roger-Vasselin are on deck. Monfils reached the semis in Montpellier while suffering from an undisclosed illness, and his health is uncertain at the moment. With that in mind, I’m playing it safe and putting RBA through even though Monfils beat him last summer in Cincy. RBA is 3-3 in 2015, but he was also ill in January and isn’t a bad indoor hard court player. Berdych and RBA have a split 2-2 h2h, with all meetings taking place since 2013, and Berdych won their only indoor meeting. That match could be close but Berdych has looked great against all but top tier competition in 2015 and he has points to defend so I expect to see him as a semifinalist this week.
Milos Raonic is making his debut in Rotterdam. The AO quarterfinalist will face Lukas Rosol or Simone Bolelli in round 2, after qualifier Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1. Bolelli, who is actually a grand slam champion now after winning the doubles title in Melbourne, has been in better form than Rosol, so he should advance to face Raonic. Raonic has appeared immune to losing to all but top 10 players on hard court as of late so he shouldn’t have any trouble banging his way to the quarterfinals. Raonic doesn’t have a difficult path to the semifinals either, as Ernests Gulbis is the seed in his section, and Gulbis has not looked good so far this season. The Latvian will likely be happy to be back indoors though and should be favored against his best pal and former hitting partner Dominic Thiem of Austria. Thiem actually beat Gulbis in 5 last year at the US Open but Thiem has appeared to be out of sorts and out of shape thus far in 2015, so now is a good time to see him on the other side of the net if you’re Gulbis, who will be looking to build his confidence. In round 2 for Gulbis/Thiem it’ll be Sergiy Stakhovsky or Marcel Granollers, two of the weaker players in this field. Stakhovsky lost in round 2 of Zagreb to Mikhail Youzhny, while Granollers reached the semifinals before falling to Seppi. With Granollers in better form I have him through against both Stako and Gulbis. The hard court h2h between Gulbis and Granollers is 1-1. Raonic should demolish whoever his quarterfinal opponent is and reach the semis.
Stan Wawrinka, who reached the semis in Australia will open with Dutch wild card Jesse Huta Galung, from there expect Wawrinka to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez yet again, after winning in 4 sets over him at the AO. GGL is in the Zagreb final (beat Viktor Troicki notably) and may take the title there, he opens with Denis Istomin who luckily reached the quarters in Montpellier. GGL won their only indoor meeting, and should get into round 2, but I don’t expect him to have much left in the tank for for Wawrinka at that stage. Wawrinka is slated to face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, assuming he can get past Mathieu, and then the Goffin/Muller winner. Muller/Goffin could be trouble, but Dimitrov is still the more talented player so he should be favored. Dimitrov demolished Wawrinka on grass in their last h2h meeting but given current form, the fact this is indoors, and a 2-1 overall h2h Wawrinka should be able to get himself to the semis here and avenge that loss.
In a tournament where the top seeds should be filling out the quarterfinals and beyond, Muller represents the best chance for an unseeded breakthrough (given Janowicz’s likely fatigue). With his dangerous serve, and the fact this is a tournament close to his home. Muller plays tennis with narrow margins, when his serve is clicking he can win a bunch of matches, and when he has even a slight dip in form he’ll struggle against journeymen, but if he does start to click, he could perhaps beat Goffin, Dimitrov, and who knows, even Wawrinka if Stan has an off day, to reach the semis, it’s not likely but the chance is there on this surface.
Predictions Semis: Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Raonic
In what would be an AO rematch, Berdych is good indoors but we saw how well Murray played in their recent matchup, so the Brit has to be favored. Top 10 players Raonic and Wawrinka have a chance to meet for the fourth time here, I’m going with Wawrinka based on a gut feeling that he will be able to return well enough to beat Raonic, given he’s won all three previous meetings in that manner, but it is nearly a pure toss-up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these names in the final given their excellent form so far this season.
Final: Murray d. Wawrinka
This match has always been a close one, Murray has a 6-3 hard court h2h edge, with Wawrinka having won their last meeting (US Open 2013). Again this is a super hard pick to make and both would be deserving champions. I’ve been really pleased with what I’ve seen from Murray since last Fall, and given that I feel he’s back, I have him as the champion this week of a stacked Rotterdam event.
Memphis Open ATP World Tour 250 Memphis, Tennessee, USA February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Kevin Anderson (15)
3: John Isner (18)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (24)
In it’s second year as a 250 level, ATP only event, Memphis has three top 20 players, and a relatively quality international contingent to go with most of the top and up and coming US men.
First Round matchups to watch:
(WC)Jared Donaldson vs. (WC)Stefan Kozlov Two players who have been pegged as future leaders in US men’s tennis will meet early on in their careers as wild cards on US soil in Memphis. Donaldson, 18, just won the Maui challenger title, his first career Challenger title, after going on a tear of 17 match wins in a row last season. Kozlov, 17, who had more success at the junior level, reaching two junior grand slam finals last season (Wimbledon and the AO) won the Maui doubles title partnering with Donaldson. Both are at career high rankings (Kozlov nearing the top 400 and Donaldson inside the top 180). Donaldson at this point in his career is perhaps slightly ahead of the development curve compared to the younger Kozlov, and his recent form would make him the favorite, but I’m not sure the result of this match will mirror how their careers are going to turn out.
AO quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori has won this title twice in a row and he’s going for a three-peat this year. Malek Jaziri or a qualifier will be his first opponent, Jaziri, who has actually played well this year so far (reached the third round in Melbourne), got himself in hot water again after retiring from a set up against Denis Istomin in Montpellier. The stated reason was an “elbow injury” but Israeli player Dudi Sela had setup a meeting with the Tunisian in the next round, and Jaziri has withdrawn before to avoid facing an Israeli player. Jaziri also pulled out of doubles against an Israeli opponent in Montpellier, and this PR debacle of a situation is going to cloud him for quite some time, especially if he continues to not directly come out and address it. All the same expect to see Nishikori in the quarters, and perhaps get a rematch of last years final against Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Croat will need to defeat Lukas Lacko, who was awful in Zagreb last week, and then the Mikhail Kukushkin/qualifier winner. Kukushkin, who reached an ATP final in January in Sydney, is a rather streaky player, as is Karlovic, who lost his opening contest in Zagreb against Marcos Baghdatis in 3 sets. Kukushkin and Karlovic have never played, I’m simply picking Karlovic because of previous success and the quarterfinalist here is a toss-up. Regardless, expect Nishikori to blaze through to the semis.
John Isner has never played as well in Memphis as he has in most other US events, that said the American number one has Ivan Dodig or Teymuraz Gabashvili on his plate in round 2. Gabashvili played pretty well in the Dallas challenger, reaching the semifinals, while Dodig lost his second match in Zagreb to Marcel Granollers. This matchup could go either way, but given Gabashvili is already in the US, I have him into round 2, before falling victim to Isner. Benjamin Becker, who had his best result at a Grand Slam in a decade when he reached the third round in Melbourne this year is in this section as well as a potential quarterfinal opponent for Isner. Becker could potentially vanquish both parts of “Quisner” , as his round 1 opponent is Sam Querrey who is 0-3 in 2015. Look for Becker, who serves as well as Querrey, but is a superior ball striker and mover, to get into the quarterfinals after beating most likely Donaldson in round 2. This isn’t a bad draw for one of the young American wild cards, but more likely will serve as a learning experience with a round 2 loss against a more experienced player. Isner has a 3-0 h2h against Becker but they haven’t met since 2009 and Becker has played, perhaps the best tennis of his career into his 30s over the past 6 months or so, with that in mind, I have Becker as a surprise semifinalist this week.
Kevin Anderson reached the second week in Melbourne, and should expect to be matched serve for serve in his first match in Memphis, that is if Aussie Sam Groth, who reached the third round Melbourne, can defeat baseliner Rendy Lu in round 1. Both Groth and Anderson have had both good and bad results in 2015, and it’s a tough match to pick. Anderson, given his ranking and similar style of player, is in most cases better than Groth on the return and equal to him on serve, so the South African number one should get through with likely tiebreak sets. Groth has improved his return but Anderson was already a step ahead. American Steve Johnson has a great shot at a good result here, if he can beat Dudi Sela, and Marinko Matosevic/Dustin Brown, he’d setup a quarterfinal meeting with most likely Anderson. Johnson has yet to lose an opening round match in 2015, as he continues to show signs of improvement in his game. Brown was a point away from beating possible champion Jerzy Janowicz in Montpellier, but all the same I expect Johnson over Matosevic in round 2. Anderson is 3-0 against Johnson, including two wins last year and a win in straights this year in Auckland, with that in mind, the matchup favors Kev and he should reach the semis, even with a tricky path.
Alex Dolgopolov, who was injured in Australia with a leg problem could face Bernard Tomic in round 2, assuming the Aussie, who reached the second week in Melbourne, beats Igor Sijsling, who comes off the quarterfinals in Zagreb. Tomic is 7-3 in 2015 and appears to be focused and in the groove right now, you never know how long that will last, but he still should be the favorite to reach the quarterfinals at least here, with Dolgo in questionable physical condition and always unpredictable. Tomic and Dolgo have played some awesome h2h matches, with Tomic winning their most recent encounter last year in Sydney, and also a 5 setter at the 2012 AO (Dolgo had won three previous hc meeting before that one for a 3-2 hard court h2h edge), This is a must see match if it takes place, with talented shotmaking a given. Tomic should actually have an easier time in the quarters, Donald Young is an option, Adrian Mannarino is the 8 seed, and a pair of qualifiers are also here. This is a section a qualifier could get out of (Denis Kudla, and Thanasi Kokkinakis are potential qualifiers) but without knowing who the qualifiers will be, I have Mannarino into the quarters with wins over Young and a qualifier. Mannarino reached the final in Auckland last month and comes off a round 1 loss to Sijsling in Zagreb, while Young was a quarterfinalist in Auckland. Tomic should reach the semis out of this section that isn’t overly difficult.
Tomic should make the semis as a non seed given his draw, and one of Anderson/Johnson/Groth is also quite beatable, Tomic is 3-0 on hard courts against Anderson, including a win indoors last year in Stockholm, and thus he should be an a finalist this week if his play holds true to its current form. As usual the talent is there but the question is can Bernie remain focused and implement the game plan and discipline needed to translate that into results on a week to week basis?
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Becker
Tomic d. Anderson
Nishikori and Becker played one of the best regular ATP tour matches of the season last year in Tokyo, Nishikori won in a third set tiebreak, clawing back from a set down, as Becker was throwing his entire arsenal at Nishikori (and previously Nishikori beat Becker last year in Memphis). The Japanese number one should win, but this pair produce some great tennis on a consistent basis and it’s still worth watching.
As mentioned above, Tomic has a demonstrated edge against Anderson, and thus he should take advantage of his draw and make the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Tomic
Nishikori was a cut above Tomic in the Brisbane quarterfinals this year, given how that match went, I don’t expect this one to go any better, Nishikori is a strong favorite to win his third ATP Memphis title.
Brasil Open 2015
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Feliciano Lopez (14)
2: Tommy Robredo (17)
3: Fabio Fognini (22)
4: Leonardo Mayer (26)
The second stop on the Golden Swing has attracted a variety of accomplished clay court veterans and the best that home grown South American tennis has to offer presently.
The 24 year old Lajovic remains poised to a breakthrough at the ATP level, though his ranking is stuck in the 60-90 no mans land right now. Meanwhile the veteran Andujar will be pleased to return to clay court tennis this week, as hard courts have once again not been kind to him this year. Lajovic pushed possible Quito champion Feliciano Lopez (a current finalist) to 3 sets in the quarterfinals, very nearly knocking him out with a 1 set lead and break point chances in the second. Andujar has experience and he’s higher ranked but I’m going with an upset and placing Lajovic into the second round, as I feel he has the ability to win this.
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci beat Klizan last year in Sao Paulo, and comes off the Quito semis, where he dropped a tough match to Victor Estrella. The home player with have crowd support against the Slovak Klizan, who also lost to Estrella by a wider margin in the quarterfinals of that same event. Bellucci should be favored at home but his mentality is always a question mark, either way this should be a rowdy contest.
(5)Pablo Cuevas vs. Jiri Vesely
Cuevas had a fantastic year on the red stuff last year, going 47-9 on clay across all levels of tournament action with a pair of ATP titles to reach a career high ranking just inside the top 30. Now he will seek to repeat that showing, or even one up it this year, starting his ATP clay tournament calendar in Sao Paulo. In his first match on clay in 2015 he will face the young Czech Jiri Vesely who just won his maiden ATP title last month in Auckland. Vesely is also no slouch on clay, as he went 18-10 on the surface under the same standard as Cuevas. Vesely likely has more raw ability, but I have the experienced Cuevas, who plays some of his best tennis in these conditions, through to round 2.
Feliciano Lopez is seeking to binge his way through the Golden Swing and maintain, if not improve on his career high ranking inside the top 15. The current Quito finalist and possible champion will have his first match in SP against Juan Monaco, a former doubles partner, or a qualifier (young gun Elias Ymer and a host of second tier dirtballers are possible qualifiers). Monaco was once in the same position Lopez is in now, having reached a career high ranking of 10 in 2010, but it’s been all downhill from there for the declining Argentine, so even if he’s fatigued Flopez should flow his way into the quarters, while Monaco could struggle with a qualifier in round 1. Lopez could play a rematch of a strange, but quality semifinal match with his fellow Spanish Armada member Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. The Quito semifinalist has a qualifier first up and then the Lajovic/Andujar winner. This section presents a great chance for Lajovic to post consecutive quarters if Verdasco is exhausted. Otherwise I’m going to repeat what I picked last week, and put Verdasco into the semis, even though I was wrong on that in Quito. It was a close match and Lopez will have to play one extra match (and stay in Quito an extra day) compared to Verdasco. Something like that is enough to swing a result.
Leonardo Mayer. who went 19-10 on clay last year with an ATP title and final on the surface, both career bests, is another player that is happy to see the ATP tour return to clay. Mayer will face Spanish vet Albert Ramos or Brazilian WC Guillherme Clezar in round 1. Mayer is a cut above Ramos, and Ramos is more accomplished than Clezar, so expect Mayer to reach the quarters by defeating Ramos. Mayer vs. the Bellucci/Klizan winner is the most likely quarterfinal in this section. I favor Bellucci over Pablo Carreno Busta, assuming PCB beats Joao Souza, another Brazilian. Souza comes off a round 1 loss in Quito, while PCB will be making his 2015 clay debut after posting a 24-15 record on the surface last season in tournament play. Bellucci-PCB should be a good R2 match for a 250, with Bellucci has a home favorite. Mayer and Bellucci have a split h2h, when it comes to the slated quarterfinal (2-2), and Mayer has been better in recent career results, so I have Leo into the semis against Verdasco.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, who won this tournament in 2009 when it was in a different location, will open with Blaz Rola or Nicolas Almagro in round 2. Almagro is a three time former champion at the Brasil Open, and he’s 4-1 against Robredo on clay in his career. He’s played just a handful of matches since coming back from injury, but he looked healthy and improving in Melbourne (lost to Kei Nishikori in round 1), while Robredo is coming off his own injury and hasn’t completed any tournament matches this year. Rola hasn’t done anything special as of late, and I expect Almagro to keep improving against him, then get Robredo at a good time for that matchup to happen, and take him out as well to make the quarterfinals. At that stage Cuevas/Vesely could be his opponent, or defending champ Federico Delbonis who opens with a qualifier. Delbonis went 14-10 on clay last year in what was a breakthrough season into the top 60 for him. He has a lot of points to defend, and he’s not been gifted a lucky draw, as I feel Cuevas is superior on the surface, and will be the one to reach the quarters, though any of him, Vesely or Cuevas reaching the quarters wouldn’t shock me, as it’s a stacked section. Cuevas just beat Almagro in Sydney on HCs and has one previous H2H win against him, so for that reason I’m going with another (slight) upset and putting the Uruguayan number one into the semis from this stacked section.
Fabio Fognini is returning to clay in SP and looking to get his singles career back on track, having returned the Golden Swing he did so well in last year. Fogna will face his countryman Paolo Lorenzi or Diego Schwartzman in round 2. Lorenzi comes off quarters in Quito, while Schwartzman is ready to make his move to the next level, after an incredible 21-2 record on clay last year at the non ATP level (22-3 overall as he played almost entirely challengers to get into the top 70). I have the 22 year old making his move and defeating both Italians, Lorenzi and Fognini to reach the quarterfinals. SP is the type of tournament where rising players can have a shot to announce themselves to the tennis world, and Schwartzman is due. Fognini has been in crisis mode since the US Open and Schwartzman is good enough to at least give him a quality match, and given the current state of Fogna’s form, defeat him. Schwartzman also has a great chance at the semis, the only other seed left would be Santiago Giraldo, the Colombian who had a great year last year, dropped a bad match to Albert Montanes in Quito. He opens with WC Kimmer Coppejans, and should win, but I have Argentine grinder Carlos Berlocq beating him, given the 4-2 overall h2h in round 2. Berlocq went 18-6 on clay last year and beat Schwartzman in 3 sets to win a challenger title on clay (Porto Alegre). A quarterfinal between this is a bit of a coin flip but I have the experienced Berlocq into the semifinals against Cuevas.
I have the unseeded Berlocq in the semis this week as well, but Schwartzman gets the dark horse tag because he’s a young gun, and he could win his first ATP title this week if he rises to the occasion. Should he get through Lorenzi, Fognini and Berlocq/Giraldo, all accomplished veterans, Cuevas/Almagro/Robredo or some other player are all beatable semifinal opponents as Schwartzman would likely need to beat a bunch of veterans just to reach the final this week. It’s a relatively open tournament field and Verdasco/Mayer/Lopez aren’t unbeatable either in a possible final.
Predictions Semis: Mayer d. Verdasco
Cuevas d. Berlocq
Mayer should be fresher than Verdasco or Lopez, and you have to believe he can maintain the high level of play we saw from his last season, especially on his favorite surface.
Cuevas-Berlocq is another judgement call but Cuevas has won the last four clay court h2h meetings, so he should be favored.
Final: Mayer d. Cuevas
Mayer was slightly better last season and has a 2-1 clay h2h edge, this is a hard tournament to predict, but I have Mayer winning another ATP title, this time in Sao Paulo.
2015 ATP Montpellier, Zagreb and Quito Previews/Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The traditional European indoor 250 level events in France and Croatia will be on the tennis calendar this week, with players fresh from the Australian swing. In addition, a new event in Ecuador is making its debut on the ATP 250 series this week. It starts off the South American clay court golden swing.
ATP Montpellier
2015 ATP Montpellier Preview
Open Sud de France
ATP World Tour 250
Montpellier, France
February 2-February 8, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gael Monfils (19)
2: Gilles Simon (20)
3: Philipp Kohlschreiber (24)
4: Richard Gasquet (28)
A balanced field that is made up almost entirely of Europeans, as is to be expected. The seed cutoff is inside the top 60.
Struff and Nieminen have both had success at the ATP level indoors, and this should be a quality contest between two great ball strikers. Nieminen reached the third round in Melbourne, and appears to be in slightly better form, so I’d give him an edge to advance, but either of these players is a dark horse threat in the tournament overall.
(6)Denis Istomin vs. Malek Jaziri
Istomin went 0-3 in January, though two of his losses came to in-form players Tomas Berdych and Andreas Seppi as he hasn’t had the best draws. Jaziri remarkably reached the third round in Melbourne, and he’s now working with Marin Cilic’s coach, former ATP great Goran Ivanisevic, on a part time basis. Ivanisevic recently discussed in this interview that Jaziri had previously not put in much effort in regards to practicing, having a coach, working on his fitness, and so forth. Ivanisevic believes Jaziri can move beyond journeyman status with renewed effort and focus, and it will be interesting what he can do here in Montpellier, I have him upsetting the seeded Istomin.
(5)Jerzy Janowicz vs. Dustin Brown
Brown has twice beaten Janowicz indoors (at the challenger level), and JJ reached the third round in Melbourne before falling to Feliciano Lopez (scoring a notable win over Gael Monfils en route). I would expect Janowicz to win this match indoors over the erratic highlight maker Brown, but it should be a quality contest, and perhaps go 3 sets.
Defending champ Gael Monfils opens his title defense against Marsel Ilhan or Kenny De Schepper, I don’t expect Monfils to be bothered so he should slide into the quarterfinals against the Struff/Nieminen winner, with Tatsuma Ito or a qualifier also options in this section. I see Nieminen getting through to the quarters, and Monfils is 4-0 against him, including 2-0 in Montpellier, so he should be favored heavily to reach the semifinals.
Richard Gasquet appears to be on track for a huge clash with young Frenchman Lucas Pouille. Gasquet, who went 4-2 in January, and has a strong record with two titles and a final last year in Montpellier, could be ousted by the rising Pouille, who has started to come into his own after floating around with wild card status for a while on tour. Pouille has a gifted forehand, while Gasquet of course has that magical backhand, so the clash of styles should be quality. Pouille nearly took out Gael Monfils in Australia and he was a semifinalist in Auckland, still it’s a tough ask to pick him over the much more established Gasquet, who has such a good record here, so Gasquet into the quarters is the pick. Pouille opens with Alexander Kudryavtsev in round 1. Expect Gasquet against the Jaziri/Istomin winner in the quarters, with Dudi Sela, who reached the third round in Melbourne shockingly, and a qualifier also options in this open section. If Sela and Jaziri end up facing off in round 2, there could be some interesting political implications.
Gilles Simon has reached the semis multiple times, but never the final here, and he’s yet another well known Frenchman playing on home soil after the AO. Simon had an up and down January, but he should have little trouble against Andreas Beck/Edouard Roger-Vasselin in round 2, and his first test should come against Janowicz in the quarters. Benoit Paire and a qualifier are also options, and the formerly promising Paire, failed to even qualify for the Aussie Open, as his career has taken a nose dive after knee problems. Janowicz is 1-0 indoors against Simon, but I see that result reversing itself if they meet again, Simon’s pushing should frustrate Janowicz into enough errors to gift him the match.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, who appeared to be playing much better in Melbourne than he has been for quite some time, opens with a qualifier or the veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu in round 2. I expect Kohli, barring a blast from the past for PHM, to reach the quarters, and then take out one of Joao Sousa/Laurent Lokoli/Tobias Kamke/Vincent Millot in the most open section of the draw. Kamke isn’t playing well right now, so Sousa, who has also had indoor success, and reached the third round in Melbourne, should reach the quarters but fall to the German at that stage.
Pouille would need to defeat Gasquet, but the ceiling for this talented young Frenchman is quite high, as he seems to be the next great player hailing from that country to burst onto the ATP scene. Pouille has all the shots, it’s just going to be a matter of him gaining experience at the highest level, and working on things like his shot selection and fitness. Should he upset Gasquet, he certainly has a chance to get to the semis and play Monfils with a chance for revenge. He’s an enjoyable player to watch no matter how far he goes here.
Monfils beat Gasquet three times last year, including in the Montpellier final, so he should have an advatage going into a possible semifinal encounter. By picking Kohli over Simon i’m going against the h2h by a sizeable margin (Simon 2-0 indoors, 4-0 on hard courts) and both have been known to be inconsistent at times, it’s a hard pick to make, and the reason why I’m going with Kohli is because he played well against Tomic in Australia and seems motivated to better himself.
Final: Monfils d. Kohlschreiber
Monfils has had success here before, and additionally he’s 4-0 on indoor hard against Kohli, thus he has to be the favorite to take the title in Montpellier, though you never really know with his form.
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
ATP World Tour 250
Zagreb, Croatia
February 2-February 8, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (27)
2: Adrian Mannarino (36)
3: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (37)
4: Gilles Muller (42)
One of the weaker fields for a tour event this year most likely, it’s truly wide open in Zagreb. Marin Cilic was supposed to headline but he pulled out of this tournament still recovering from injury.
First Round matchups to watch:
Borna Coric vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
One of the home favorites who the crowd will be rallying behind in Zagreb, the young Croat Coric went just 1-3 in January, and will be looking to improve on his record this month, boosted by home cooking and home soil. If he is to have a 2015 season where he gets inside the top 50 and stays there, he will need to win matches like this one against Stakhovsky, he’s a better player than the Ukrainian number two who plays splotches of good tennis mixed in with a lot of journeyman results. To add to the intrigue, Stakhovsky won the title in 2008 here. That said, without weather being a factor, and with crowd support, Coric should rise to the occasion and win this one.
Ivo Karlovic could get a tough test right off the bat against Marcos Baghdatis, who reached the third round in Melbourne shockingly, and is a former champion here. Baghdatis will need to beat wild card Toni Androic to get to round 2. Karlovic and Baghdatis split meetings in 2008, I’ve been impressed by Baghdatis over the past month, and I have him through to the quarterfinals. The Coric/Stakhovsky winner will have a shot at the quarters, with Blaz Kavcic and Mikhail Youzhny also in this section. Youzhny is a former champion in Zagreb as well, but he’s playing incredibly poorly right now, he’s 2-0 against Kavcic but both their meetings were competitive, so I have Kavcic through to round 2 in an upset, and then Coric over him for a spot in the quarters, with Baghdatis eventually making the semis.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who reached the second week of Melbourne, just his second week 2 appearance in singles in a slam, opens with Damir Dzumhur/qualifier. The dangerous name here is Sydney champion Viktor Troicki, who has been rising back up the rankings since returning to tour, and should be able to feast on a weak draw like this. GGL is good enough to reach the quarters, but Troicki should demolish a qualifier, then Go Soeda/qualifier to setup a meeting with him, and then I have Troicki winning that match to reach the semifinals.
Auckland finalist Adrian Mannarino will face Igor Sijsling or a qualifier in round 2, that’s not going to be an impressive match, but Mannarino should reach the quarters to meet perhaps Croatian Ivan Dodig. Dodig seems to be improving and his first match against countryman Mate Delic is winnable. Likewise he’s better than Marcel Granollers or Jurgen Melzer presently on an indoor hard court, though Melzer did qualify in Melbourne surprisingly. Melzer is 2-0, with two 3 set wins in his career against Dodig, one of which came indoors. Dodig is my pick for the semis in this section as I have him taking out Mannarino.
Gilles Muller, who reached the round of 16 in Melbourne, will open with Ricardas Berankis or Lukas Lacko, Lacko has had success here before but Muller is serving well right now so he should comfortably make the quarterfinals. Lurking in this section is Andreas Seppi, a quarterfinalist in Melbourne, and semifinalist in Doha who has really been hitting his shots well this past month. Seppi opens with a struggling Robin Haase, then has Antonio Veic or James Ward in his way, that shouldn’t be much of a contest, and I have Seppi, who is 2-1 indoors against Muller, through to the semifinals in a tight contest.
Dark Horse: Marcos Baghdatis
When it comes to an unseeded player who can have a surprising result, Baghdatis fits the bill, if he makes the semis, a match against Troicki will be difficult but winnable and likewise Muller/Seppi are beatable all be it tough in a potential final. Baghdatis is seeking a career resurgence in his later years and winning an ATP title would be a massive step towards that.
Baghdatis is 4-1 in his career, and 3-1 on indoor hard against Troicki, that said I feel the Serbian has been the better player, and playing better tennis as of late, so I still have him through.
Seppi is 4-1 against Dodig on hard courts in his career, and with how well he played in January, signs are good that he will reach the final. He just beat Dodig in Doha.
Final: Seppi d. Troicki
Seppi beat Troicki once on hard courts, and this is a difficult match to predict, however I have the Italian winning the ATP title here off of his good momentum and balanced approach over the past month.
Ecuador Open Quito
ATP World Tour 250
Quito, Ecuador
February 2-February 8, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Feliciano Lopez (14)
2: Santiago Giraldo (32)
3: Fernando Verdasco (33)
4: Martin Klizan (34)
Just one top 20 player in the field for this tournament, but it’s full of an interesting set of clay courters really and lots of Latin American flair at this maiden event.
Top Half:
Feliciano Lopez, who did well in Melbourne is the marquee name here, he had a poor January before the AO and had to drag himself into the second week, but he appears to be playing better tennis at the moment, and will shift onto clay against Alejandro Gonzalez or Facundo Bagnis. I have Lopez over Gonzalez (who beat Bagnis twice on clay last year) for a spot in the quarters, with 7 seed Dusan Lajovic in line to take the other spot. Lajovic will need to avoid upsets against Luca Vanni, and qualifier/Gonzalo Escobar but he’s got a really lucky seedline here with no serious competition. Expect Lopez over Lajovic in the quarters.
Fernando Verdasco, who reached the third round in Melbourne, will also be shifting his powerful game to clay, his first match will come against either a qualifier or Andreas Haider-Maurer, and then veteran clay courters are in the section below him competing to meet him in the quarterfinals. Joao Souza will face Alejandro Falla in R1, and Paolo Lorenzi will face Adrian Menendez Maceiras. Souza is 3-1 on clay against Falla, and Falla has been struggling so I have Souza into round 2, I have Lorenzi over AMM (3-0 including 2 wins last year in the h2h). Then I have the Brazilian into the quarterfinals, Lorenzi has won their last three meetings, but Souza has won twice on clay against him and appears to be playing slightly better right now. Verdasco should take out Souza and reach the semis.
Bottom Half:
Santiago Giraldo, who got off to a rough start in 2015, will face veteran Spaniard Albert Montanes or young Argentine Facundo Arguello in round 2. Even with Giraldo just 1-2 in 2015, he beat an aging Montanes last year on clay, and twice overall, and he’s 4-1 in the career H2H so he should be heavily favored to reach the quarterfinals here (Arguello has only played one tournament match this year and it was a bad loss in a clay court challenger). Awaiting Giraldo should be Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci, Bellucci will face formerly established Ecuadorian player Giovanni Lapentti in round 1, and then the Horacio Zeballos/Austin Krajicek winner. Though Zeballos capable of random bursts of form, Bellucci is the relatively more accomplished name and he should get to the quarters here. Bellucci bested Giraldo twice last year, and hasa a 4-1 clay h2h against him, so he may be the favorite, but I feel this pair have careers going in the opposite direction right now, with Giraldo having a breakthrough 2014, and Bellucci seemingly stagnated around the top 100. In my own bracket I have Giraldo in the semis.
Martin Klizan opens with Daniel Gimeno-Traver or wild card Marton Fuscovics in round 2. Klizan is one of the rare European players that isn’t playing in Europe this week, and instead prefers his tennis South American style. Klizan should reach the quarters, and the inspiring veteran story Victor Estrella should await him. The unsung grinder Estrella faces a qualifier, then stagnated Russian Evgeny Donskoy, or a qualifier in round 2. Klizan is more accomplished and skilled than Estrella, but in these conditions Estrella will certainly have a shot at the semis, I put Klizan through in my own bracket though.
Bellucci is the type of player who could acquire a burst of form, and streak his way into perhaps an ATP title. He has an easy path before Giraldo in the quarters, and Giraldo is in a beatable condition right now, especially given the favorable H2H. Likewise Klizan/Estrella are beatable opponents on a good day for him and this entire field is beatable given it’s not that strong.
Verdasco and Lopez have pretty much split h2h meetings and it could go either way, that said, Lopez gives me the feeling that he’s setup to not win the title here, and Verdasco has the game to be able to take him out.
Giraldo has won clay win against Klizan, and the altitude should help him, it could go either way but Giraldo should be slightly favored.
This would be a big hitting final, Verdasco beat Giraldo last year on clay in Houston, and given current form, I back the Spaniard to do the same here.
Tennis Atlantic 