ATP Quito Predictions

Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta and Albert Ramos Top Seeds at ATP Quito
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The ATP Golden Swing kicks off with a 250 on clay in Quito, Ecuador, Spanish players feature heavily in the field. Here is your full preview, with predictions.

Top Half:

Fresh off success in Davis Cup, Pablo Carreno Busta should be able to defeat Rogerio Dutra Silva/qualifier. PCB is in a weak section with Ivo Karlovic/Ernesto Escobedo/Corentin Moutet/Adrian Menendez-Maceiras awaiting in the quarters. None of those players have performed well on clay at the tour level, and PCB should roll into the semis.

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Paolo Lorenzi looks good in his section, he faces a qualifier, Nicolas Jarry/Tommy Robredo or Stefano Travaglia/Pablo Andujar to follow. Andujar is returning from injury so Travaglia should be favored, Robredo could find form as a wild card, but Lorenzi over his countryman Travaglia is my pick for the quarters.

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Bottom Half:

Albert Ramos should beat Roberto Quiroz/Yannick Hanfmann in the second round. Victor Estrella plays great in Quito, and I have him upsetting Thomaz Bellucci, and then Marco Cecchinato/Gerald Melzer to reach the quarters. VEB has beaten Bellucci three previous times in Quito. VEB should beat Melzer in the second round, and then I have him upsetting Ramos.

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Gael Monfils takes on young gun Casper Ruud (or Carlos Berlocq) in round 2. Horacio Zeballos faces Thiago Monteiro, Peter Polansky or a qualifier will follow. I have Monfils beating Monteiro (and Ruud) to reach the semis.

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Predictions

Semis
Estrella d. Monfils
Carreno Busta d. Lorenzi

Estrella plays so well in Quito he should upset Monfils. PCB is the tournament favorite for a reason though, he’s really risen in the past 12 months.

Final
Carreno Busta d. Estrella

2017 ATP Quito Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The ATP Golden Swing on South American clay kicks off on the high altitude courts of Quito, Ecuador for a 250 stop drawing a good number of the ATP’s clay court specialists. Here is a preview, with predictions for the Ecuador Open.

Ecuador Open
ATP World Tour 250
Quito, Ecuador
February 6-12, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $482,060

Top 4 Seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (19)
2: Albert Ramos (30)
3: Paolo Lorenzi (43)
4: Thomaz Bellucci (67)

Just one top 20 player is playing in Quito, making this quite an open field early in the season.

First round matches to watch:

Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. (WC)Janko Tipsarevic

The 32 year old Tipsarevic has started the season in red hot form, going 10-0 at the Challenger tour level. After being awarded a wild card in Quito, he’ll face fellow veteran Gimeno-Traver, who also used to be ranked higher than he is now. Tipsarevic isn’t as solid on clay usually as the dirtballer DGT, but given his great form, he should win this match, and perhaps make a deeper run in this 250.

Top Half:

Veteran Victor Estrella looks set to reach the quarterfinals, given his first two opponents will be a struggling Andrej Martin, and Ivo Karlovic, who is poor on clay, given the red dirt absorbs his powerful serves. Four dirtballers are in the section below VEB, Joao Souza faces qualifier Federico Gaio, while Gerald Melzer will face #6 Horacio Zeballos. None of these players are in great form, but Zeballos over Gaio is my pick to reach the quarters. Given Estrella leads Zeballos in the h2h, the Dominican #1 is my pick to reach the semifinals.

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Thomaz Bellucci has struggled to start the season, this gives Janko Tipsarevic a great opportunity to defeat him and DGT to reach the quarterfinals. Santiago Giraldo should defeat Benjamin Becker, who is poor on clay, and then I have him defeating Renzo Olivo, after Olivo dispatches Emilio Gomez. Olivo has been solid below the tour level, but Giraldo is more experienced in ATP matches, and should play better at a high altitude. I have Tipsarevic defeating Giraldo to reach the semifinals.

Bottom Half:

A solid clay courter at the ATP level, Albert Ramos should be good enough to defeat qualifier Alejandro Falla or Alessandro Giannessi in his first match. 22 year old Thiago Monteiro has a favorable draw, opening with wild card Giovanni Lapentti, followed by either qualifier Roberto Carballes Baena, or Rogerio Dutra Silva. The matchup between RCB and RDS is a toss-up, but Monteiro is my pick for the quarterfinals, before falling to Ramos.

Paolo Lorenzi is coming off of Davis Cup duty and should face qualifier Agustin Velotti in round 2, presuming Velotti defeats Matthew Ebden, who is poor on clay. Fatigue could play a factor for Lorenzi, but otherwise he should reach the quarterfinals and face an Argentine, either Nicolas Kicker or Guido Andreozzi. Alexandr Dolgopolov is also in this section, but he’s been struggling for a while, and a win over serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram in round 1 likely isn’t enough to give him a boost on clay, a surface he’s hit and miss on. Lorenzi over Andreozzi is my pick in the quarters.

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Dark Horse: Janko Tipsarevic

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The formerly top 10 Tipsarevic has endured a rash of injuries, but is on the cusp of returning to the top 100. He has a shot at reaching 300 career tour wins this season, after posting seven last season. The draw in Quito makes the title ripe for the taking, and if the Serbian can find his form on clay, he could leave the tournament as champion.

Prediction

Semis
Tipsarevic d. Estrella
Ramos d. Lorenzi

Ramos should be fresher than Lorenzi, while Tipsarevic’s form gives him a slight edge over Estrella despite having lost their only h2h match. Ramos has won his last two matches against Lorenzi (2-2 h2h). Estrella is bidding for a third straight title in Quito, and that adds yet another wrinkle to a potential semifinal clash with Tipsarevic.

Final
Ramos d. Tipsarevic

It’s hard to predict a champion in Quito, but on clay, Ramos is as good of a pick as any from this field of 28.

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2016 ATP Quito Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The first clay court ATP tournament of the season is in Quito, Ecuador and is an ATP 250 in year 2 of its history.

Ecuador Open Quito
ATP World Tour 250
February 1-7, 2016
Quito, Ecuador
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $463,520

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Bernard Tomic (17)
2: Feliciano Lopez (19)
3: Thomaz Bellucci (37)
4: Fernando Verdasco (45)

First round matchups to watch:

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(5)Victor Estrella vs. Guido Pella

The defending champion Estrella has a tough opening round contest against Pella. Pella is 2-2 on clay against Estrella, and is also the oddsmakers favorite. It’s going to be hard for Estrella to maintain ATP caliber tennis in 2016, and winning matches like this are key.

Top Half:

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Bernard Tomic is 7-3 to start the season, but he’s never posted a winning record on clay, and though this is a weak field, he’s clearly at risk of an upset before the semifinals. Tomic will face American Austin Krajicek or Roberto Carballes Baena, and then most likely Alejandro Falla or Paolo Lorenzi in the quarterfinals. Falla opens with Giovanni Lapentti, who has yet to win in 2016, while recent challenger finalist Lorenzi opens with Gonzalo Escobar. Lorenzi is 2-1 on clay against Falla, and is the most likely quarterfinalist after a great start to the season for the Italian veteran.

Given this is clay I have Lorenzi upsetting Tomic to reach the semifinals.

Thomaz Bellucci is just 1-3 to start the season, but he has positive history on clay and he should get past either Albert Montanes or Jozef Kovalik, who is a perfect 3-3 in qualifying bids this season. Montanes is a fading veteran, though he could win the round 1 match. Bellucci vs. Pablo Carreno Busta is a quality quarterfinal. PCB has yet to post an above .500 record on ATP clay, but he’s demonstrated great ability at the challenger level, and should beat Rogerio Dutra Silva in round 1, and Pere Riba or Inigo Cervantes in round 2.

Carreno Busta looks capable of making a move up the rankings in 2016, and I have him upsetting Bellucci, and moving the clay court h2h to 1-1 to reach the semifinals.

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Bottom Half:

Feliciano Lopez is defending finalist points and is 2-2 to start the season. Lopez’s serve and volley game played well on high altitude clay last year and he should handle either Facundo Arguello or qualifier Joao Souza in round 2. Likely quarterfinal opponent Albert Ramos has proven himself on clay with his topspin game. Ramos opens with Dusan Lajovic and will face Horacio Zeballos or Rajeev Ram in round 2. Zeballos could trouble Ramos, but the ATP veteran should advance.

Ramos has never played his countryman Lopez on clay, but given his success last year, Lopez is a minor favorite to reach the semifinals.

Fernando Verdasco is 2-2 to start the season, and scored a win over Rafael Nadal in Melbourne. The Spaniard hasn’t been at his best on clay but the altitude should help him power past Alejandro Gonzalez or Renzo Olivo in round 2. Olivo qualified in Melbourne. Marcel Granollers opens with Andrej Martin, and should beat Pella or Estrella to setup a matchup with Verdasco. Granollers is 2-0 on clay against Verdasco, but once more the venue should allow Verdasco’s power to help him reach the semis.

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Dark Horse: Paolo Lorenzi

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Lorenzi is a seed but you wouldn’t expect him to reach the semifinals and perhaps go farther than that. He lacks an exciting game, or a recognizable personality, but he’s battling on the ATP tour for quite some time, and he’s always been consistent, especially on clay. A shocking run to the final or even capturing the title would be a fitting result for the Italian.

Predictions

Semis
Carreno Busta d. Lorenzi
Lopez d. Verdasco

PCB leads Lorenzi 4-0 in the h2h, Lopez beat Verdasco in the Quito semis last year.

Final
Lopez d. Carreno Busta

PCB has a h2h win over Lopez, but Feliciano should be eager to do one better and win a title in Quito.

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Steen Kirby (Marseille)