Gilles Simon and Bernard Tomic Claim ATP Titles in Recent Weeks Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Four 250 level hard court stops took place on the ATP Tour over the past 2 weeks, producing four different singles winners who will be proud of their accomplishments for vastly different reasons.
Tour veteran Gilles Simon put together a surprising weak on home court in Metz, claiming his second title of 2018 7-6 6-1 against qualifier Matthias Bachinger. The win marks the first time Simon has won multiple ATP titles in a season since 2011. He dropped a set against Filip Krajinovic in the second round, but otherwise eased past Jiri Vesely, Richard Gasquet, and Radu Albot to reach the final.
Also a veteran, Bachinger took part in his first ever ATP final, coming through qualifying and then defeating Jaume Munar, Gregoire Barrere, Yannick Maden, and Kei Nishkori, his last two wins coming in three sets, with the stunning result over Nishikori one of the finest wins of his journeyman career.
The home nation swept the titles as Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin teamed up to defeat the Skupski brothers in the doubles final.
Austrian #1 Dominic Thiem balled out on hard courts claiming a third title for 2018 with a 6-3 6-1 routine victory against Martin Klizan in the St. Petersburg final. Thiem won four matches, dropping just a set in Russia. His wins came against J.L. Struff, Daniil Medvedev in a third set tiebreak, and Roberto Bautista Agut to reach the final.
Klizan had a good tournament as well, claiming wins against Evgeny Donskoy, Fabio Fognini, Denis Shapovalov, and Stan Wawrinka to reach the final, the final two wins coming in three set contests.
Matteo Berrettini and Fabio Fognini teamed up to win the doubles title against Jebavy/Middelkoop.
Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka claimed his first ever ATP title 7-5 2-6 6-4 against Frenchmen Pierre-Hugues Herbert. The 23 year old has overcome a rash of injuries and in his first ATP final he was clutch against the more experienced Herbert. Like the other winner on the ATP Tour this week, Bernard Tomic, Nishioka came through qualifying to reach the main draw. In the main draw his wins came against Denis Kudla, Denis Shapovalov, Cam Norrie, and Fernando Verdasco, with Shapovalov and Verdasco taking three sets to defeat.
Herbert defeated Dusan Lajovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Albert Ramos, and Alex De Minaur to reach the final, needing three sets in his last two victories, including a nip and tuck win against ADM. The result is Herbert’s second ever ATP final.
Salisbury/Mclachlan defeated Lindstedt/Ram in the doubles final.
It’s been a long road back to this point for 25 year old Aussie Bernard Tomic, but he finally claimed another piece of ATP hardware winning his first title since 2015 6-1 3-6 7-6(7) against Fabio Fognini. Trailing in the tiebreak, Tomic had to produce both luck and skill to comeback for the win. He is now likely set to feature again at the higher level ATP tournaments as he had to come through qualifying where he dropped sets in two of his three matches, just to reach the main draw in this 250. In the main draw he edged Bradley Klahn and Lloyd Harris, then eased past Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Joao Sousa to reach the final.
Fognini has reached 4 ATP finals this season, he had a relatively smooth path against Ruben Bemelmans, Matt Ebden, and Taylor Fritz this week, though he did drop a set to Fritz.
Croatia’s Mate Pavic and Ivan Dodig defeated Nedunchezhiyan/Krajicek in the doubles final.
Maiden ATP Titles for Gojowczyk and Dzumhur in Metz and St. Petersburg Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Metz
Qualifier Peter Gojowczyk came back from a set down in his opening match, and went on to win his maiden ATP title 7-5 6-2 over home favorite Benoit Paire in Metz. Gojowczyk beat Norbert Gombos, Gilles Simon, Marius Copil, and Mischa Zverev to reach the final, showcasing career best form. Paire beat Stefanos Tsitsipas, Marcel Granollers, David Goffin, and Nikoloz Basilashvili to reach the final, it was his first final since 2015. Frenchmen Julien Benneteau and Edouard Roger-Vasselin defeated Koolhof/Sitak in the doubles final.
ATP St. Petersburg
Bosnia’s Damir Dzumhur has been rapidly rising up the ATP rankings this season, and in his second ATP final of the season, he came away a victor over Fabio Fognini 3-6 6-4 6-2 to claim his maiden ATP title. Dzumhur dropped a set against Liam Broady in St. Petersburg, but eased past Paolo Lorenzi, Marcos Baghdatis, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Dzumhur is an undersized ball striker who seems to be getting closer to maximizing his potential.
Fognini reached his second final of the season by defeating Mikhail Youzhny, Ricardas Berankis, and Roberto Bautista Agut, two of those wins coming in three sets. Jebavy and Middelkoop won the doubles title over Peralta/Zeballos.
22 year old Frenchman Lucas Pouille won on home soil in Metz as he beat fellow young gun Dominic Thiem 7-6 6-2 to take his first ever ATP title. Pouille dominated proceedings as Thiem was a bit disinterested in the match at times, and the crowd was pleased with the result for the next big thing in French tennis.
Pouille boosted his ranking into the top 15 thanks to wins over his countrymen Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Julien Benneteau in three sets, and a win over David Goffin in the semis in straight sets. Thiem improved to 53-18 on the season as the top 10 Austrian scored wins over Peter Gojowczyk, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon before falling to Pouille.
Julio Peralta and Horacio Zeballos took home the doubles title over Mate Pavic and Michael Venus, it was their third of the season.
Alexander Zverev marched back from a break down against US Open champion and world #3 Stan Wawrinka to capture his first ever ATP title. The 19 year old has 38 wins on the season after beating Wawrinka 6-2 3-6 7-5. After dropping the second set and going a break down in the third he looked finished, but Wawrinka’s level dropped and the German powered through from there.
Zverev beat Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev, Mikhail Youzhny, and Tomas Berdych without dropping a set this week. He had two top 10 wins, and was a deserving champion. Youzhny had ousted Milos Raonic in the previous round and was the home favorite. Wawrinka beat Lukas Rosol, Viktor Troicki, and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set. He now has 42 wins on the year.
Dominic Inglot and Henri Kontinen beat Andre Begemann and Leander Paes to take home the doubles title.
2016 ATP St. Petersburg Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour heads back to Europe for indoor hard court action post US Open, and the ATP 250 stop in St. Petersburg, Russia is next on the calendar. Here is a look at the field, with predictions.
St. Petersburg Open
ATP World Tour 250
St. Petersburg, Russia
September 19-25, 2016
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: $923,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Stan Wawrinka (3)
2: Milos Raonic (6)
3: Tomas Berdych (9)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
The US Open champ Wawrinka, and two more ATP top 10 players are playing in St. Petersburg, making it a strong ATP 250.
Russia and Kazakhstan just played in Davis Cup action, and Rublev and Kukushkin represented their nations, although they didn’t play each other in a match. The young Rublev should be boosted by team Russia’s victory in that tie, and playing on home courts. Kukushkin is a steady ATP veteran, the rising young gun Rublev could use this quality win.
(5)Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov
Despite playing well in Washington, Zverev was disappointing this summer and needs to a reset for the Fall season. Khachanov is still an intriguing talent in his own right, and comes off qualifying for the US Open. Zverev is the favorite for a reason, but an upset wouldn’t surprise me.
Top Half:
The US Open champion Stan Wawrinka, presuming he’s fit and serious about playing hard in St. Petersburg, should dispatch Lukas Rosol or Diego Schwartzman, then either Viktor Troicki or Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. Verdasco opens with Dusan Lajovic, while Troicki will face Gastao Elias. Verdasco has a recent h2h win over Lajovic, while Troicki should beat Elias. I have him defeating Verdasco given the Spaniard hasn’t been in great form all year. Troicki reached the semis in Winston-Salem, and he should fall to Wawrinka in the St. Petersburg quarters.
Roberto Bautista Agut and Joao Sousa look set to face off in the quarters, RBA is 27-10 on hard courts this year, and with the only player standing in his way either the out of form Adrian Mannarino or the struggling Ricardas Berankis, he should make the quarters. Sousa opens with a qualifier, and then will face the Rublev/Kukushkin winner. Rublev is a young gun, and Sousa has been poor this year, but he won a pair of matches in New York, and that makes him the favorite. RBA over Sousa is my pick in the quarters.
Bottom Half:
Milos Raonic will face either fan favorite Mikhail Youzhny or the rejuvenated Janko Tisparevic in his first match. Raonic was poor at the US Open, but on a quick indoor hard court there is no reason to believe his serve won’t allow him to get past most likely Tipsarevic, as Youzhny hasn’t been healthy, and then beat either Zverev or Khachanov. The winner of that match faces Alexander Bublik or a qualifier in round 2. The 19 year old Bublik is a promising Russian talent making his ATP debut. I don’t think Zverev will be able to handle Raonic’s serve.
The weakest section of the draw belongs to Tomas Berdych, who is recovering from appendix removal, and missed the US Open. The Czech is 19-9 on hard courts this year and will probably face home favorite Andrey Kuznetsov, presuming Kuznetsov beats his Davis Cup teammate Evgeny Donskoy in round 1. The other seed here is Albert Ramos, who prefers clay and is just 5-9 on hard courts this year. Ramos opens with a qualifier, and then will face fellow clay courter Paolo Lorenzi or a qualifier in round 2. Lorenzi has had a career best season, but Ramos should fall to Berdych in the quarters.
Kuznetsov is 25, so he’s matured beyond the prospect stage, and as a result doesn’t get near as much fanfare as Rublev in terms of Russian players. However, Kuznetsov is the best Russian player right now, at #47 in the world, and has gone 26-17 this year. His massive improvements this year are clear, and he could upset Berdych and make a run in a home tournament.
Predictions
Semis
Wawrinka d. Bautista Agut
Raonic d. Berdych
There is no reason to believe the top two seeds won’t make the final unless Wawrinka isn’t focused, or Raonic isn’t healthy.
Final
Raonic d. Wawrinka
I’m calling an upset in the final, Wawrinka has less to play for than Raonic, who wants to secure a spot in the year end World Tour finals. The Canadian badly needs the boost of a top 5 win, and I’m not sure Wawrinka will be 100% committed this tournament.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga took the title in Metz for the third time in his career with a 7-6(5) 1-6 6-2 victory over fellow Frenchman Gilles Simon. Simon battled hard for two sets, but Tsonga’s relentless attack eventually broke him down in the final set, as Tsonga recovered from a poor batch of services games in set 2. The title is the first of the season for Tsonga, and extends his streak of years with at least one ATP title to five (2011-2015).
The 30 year old beat Mischa Zverev and Nicolas Mahut in three sets then improved his tennis to win in straight sets over an in-form Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber reached the semis by virtue of #1 seed Stan Wawrinka’s withdrawal.
Simon found great form himself indoors on home soil and scored three routine wins over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Gilles Muller and Martin Klizan to make the final, finally running out of steam in that final.
Lukasz Kubot and Roger-Vasselin, a pair of veterans, beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert/Nicolas Mahut in an upset to take home the doubles final.
The renewal of the St. Petersburg Open saw Milos Raonic post his best result post foot surgery as the Canadian served well and took home the title. Raonic, like Tsonga, extends his years with at least 1 ATP title to five with a 6-3 3-6 6-3 victory over Joao Sousa. Sousa played an aggressive match, and once more posts an excellent Fall indoor hard court result, but he simply couldn’t get enough returns in for winners to beat Raonic in the third set.
Raonic dominated Evgeny Donskoy, Tommy Robredo, and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set on the fast indoor surface to reach the final. Sousa was lucky to slip past Radu Albot in three sets but the best was yet to come as he took out Marcel Granollers, Simone Bolelli, and Dominic Thiem without dropping a set in his next three matches. Bolelli upset Tomas Berdych in round 2.
Treat Huey and Henri Kontinen beat Julian Knowle and Alexander Peya for the doubles title.
2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 35 (Metz, St. Petersburg) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of indoor hard court 250’s on European soil kicks off the 2015 ATP World Tour Fall swing and our experts are on hand to make their bracket predictions.
Metz
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Wawrinka vs. Brown, Darcis vs. Kohlschreiber, Tsonga vs. Carreno Busta, Mahut vs. Mannarino, Mathieu vs. Pospisil, Herbert vs. Garcia-Lopez, A. Zverev vs. Muller, Roger-Vasselin vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Kohlschreiber, Tsonga vs. Mahut, Mathieu vs. Garcia-Lopez, Muller vs. Simon Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Tsonga, Garcia-Lopez vs. Simon Final: Wawrinka vs. Simon Champion: Wawrinka
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Wawrinka vs. Brown, Darcis vs. Kohlschreiber, Tsonga vs. M. Zverev, Mahut vs. Mannarino, Klizan vs. Pospisil, Herbert vs. Garcia-Lopez, A. Zverev vs. Muller, Roger-Vasselin vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Wawrinka vs. Kohlschreiber, Tsonga vs. Mannarino, Klizan vs. Garcia-Lopez, Muller vs. Simon Semifinals: Kohlschreiber vs. Tsonga, Klizan vs. Simon Final: Tsonga vs. Simon Champion: Tsonga
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Wawrinka vs. Ram, Lorenzi vs. Millman, Tsonga vs. Carreno Busta, Mahut vs. Mannarino, Mathieu vs. Pospisil, Herbert vs. Garcia-Lopez, A. Zverev vs. Muller, Roger-Vasselin vs. Simon Quarterfinals: Ram vs. Millman, Tsonga vs. Mahut, Pospisil vs. Garcia-Lopez, Muller vs. Simon Semifinals: Millman vs. Tsonga, Garcia-Lopez vs. Simon Final: Tsonga vs. Simon Champion: Tsonga
Stan Wawrinka, Gilles Simon, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga all expected to do well in Metz this week.
Round of 16 matches: Berdych vs. Bolelli, Kokkinakis vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Haider-Maurer, Golubev vs. Kukushkin, Paire vs. Berankis, Gabashvili vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Baghdatis, Donskoy vs. Raonic
Quarterfinals: Berdych vs. Kokkinakis, Thiem vs. Kukushkin, Paire vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Raonic Semifinals: Berdych vs. Kukushkin, Bautista Agut vs. Raonic Final: Berdych vs. Raonic Champion: Berdych
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Berdych vs. Rublev, Kokkinakis vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Haider-Maurer, Becker vs. Kukushkin, Paire vs. Pouille, Gabashvili vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Gulbis, Sidorenko vs. Raonic
Quarterfinals: Berdych vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Kukushkin, Paire vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Raonic Semifinals: Berdych vs. Thiem, Bautista Agut vs. Raonic Final: Berdych vs. Bautista Agut Champion: Berdych
Joe Craven’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Berdych vs. Rublev, Kokkinakis vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Haider-Maurer, Becker vs. Istomin, Janowicz vs. Berankis, Gabashvili vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Gulbis, Donskoy vs. Raonic
Quarterfinals: Berdych vs. Kokkinakis, Thiem vs. Istomin, Janowicz vs. Bautista Agut, Gulbis vs. Raonic Semifinals: Berdych vs. Thiem, Janowicz vs. Raonic Final: Berdych vs. Raonic Champion: Berdych
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round of 16 matches: Berdych vs. Rublev, Granollers vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Haider-Maurer, Golubev vs. Istomin, Paire vs. Berankis, Shyla vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Gulbis, Donskoy vs. Raonic
Quarterfinals: Berdych vs. Sousa, Thiem vs. Kukushkin, Paire vs. Bautista Agut, Robredo vs. Raonic Semifinals: Berdych vs. Kukushin, Bautista Agut vs. Raonic Final: Berdych vs. Raonic Champion: Raonic
Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic, St. Petersburg’s #1 and #2 seeds are the clear favorites to take the title.
Niall’s winning US Open performance has made the final push for points at the end of the season matter as he’s back within striking distance of Steen with two Masters series events left to go.
2015 ATP Metz and St. Petersburg Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour returns with the start of the European fall indoor hard court swing. A pair of 250s are up this week, one in Metz, France, and the other in St. Petersburg, Russia, as that event returns after being absent from the tour calendar last season.
ATP Metz
Moselle Open
ATP World Tour 250
Metz, France
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4)
2: Gilles Simon (10)
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (17)
4: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (31)
Two top 10 players, and three top 20 players gives Metz a quality field for a small indoor 250 at this point in the season.
Kohlschreiber had a successful outing in Davis Cup for Germany over the weekend as he went 2-0, but the former Metz finalist has had a down season at the ATP level thsi year. Additionally, he may have to fight fatigue and jet lag as he’s coming back from the Caribbean with Davis Cup duty. Millman is a talented underachiever who won a pair of challengers over the summer and can play solid tennis at times, Peppo is still the favorite, but this match has some upset potential.
(6)Martin Klizan vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
PHM is playing on home soil, and veteran who relies on solid ballstriking is a relatively solid player indoors. He recently reached the final in Kitzbuhel on clay over the summer, beating his opponent Klizan in the process, and qualified for the US Open. Klizan comes off a 2-0 result in Davis Cup and has an indoor h2h win over Mathieu in Rotterdam (2013, 3 sets) but he’s a streaky player who can ball bash well, or struggle mightily. Depending on what version of Klizan will show up, he’ll either advance with ease or lose in an upset in this matchup of contrasting styles.
(WC)Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
The US Open doubles champion Herbert recently reached his first ATP title in Winston-Salem, and on home soil with a big serve, he’s a danger to the serve and volleyer Stakhovsky. Stako reached the third round of the US Open and a recent challenger final however (in Istanbul), so his form appears good. An inspired PHH could rock the boat this tournament, and with a recent h2h win over Stako, I have him winning against him again.
(8)Fernando Verdasco vs. Alexander Zverev
Verdasco is just 2-5 since Wimbledon, and he risks dropping that number to 2-6 at the hands of the young gun Zverev. The teenager had a successful summer and qualified for the US Open among other good results. His indoor game isn’t as good as his clay court game, but the big hitting Verdasco has struggled to find rhythm and I’m going to go with an upset and pick Zverev, who is on the upswing of his career, while Verdasco is clearly heading downhill.
Stan Wawrinka was pushed to five sets in his DC singles rubber against the lower ranked Thiemo De Bakker on Friday, but the Swiss #2 is unlikely to have much trouble getting past the first couple of matches in Metz. Wawrinka is 42-13 on the season and also reached the semis of the US Open most recently. Look for him to get past a serve and volleyer in his first match, either Rajeev Ram or the big serving Dustin Brown, who also comes off of DC duty, and then past Kohlschreiber for a spot in the semifinals. Stan the Man is 2-0 in the h2h, and should not only be in better form, but also be fresher than his German counterpart. Both players have elite one handed backhands and it’ll be a fun matchup if it takes place. The Kohlschreiber/Millman winner faces either Belgium’s Davis Cup hero Steve Darcis, or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 2 with the serve and volleying Darcis likely too tired to make much of an impact this tournament.
Two-time Metz champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was excellent at the US Open, where he reached the quarterfinals, and the aggressive Frenchman tends to play well indoors, and at home. The fan favorite is placed in a weak section that will feature either a qualifier or Pablo Carreno Busta in the round of 16, and by ranking #7 seed Adrian Mannarino in the quarterfinals. Nicolas Mahut, the other half of the winning US Open doubles team, could prove to be a bit of a dark horse if the serve and volleyer can get his game together and beat a struggling Federico Delbonis (a loser of 5 straight matches) and Mannarino, who has been streaky this season. All of the French players are fan favorites at home, but Tsonga is a clear favorite to reach the semis for a likely matchup against Wawrinka. I have Mahut slipping past Mannarino, though it’s hard to tell with Adrian.
Two-time Metz champion Gilles Simon, another of the French fan favorites at this tournament, will open with a qualifier and from there should advance to face the big serving and dangerous Gilles Muller in the quarterfinals. Muller opens with Aljaz Bedene as he looks to snap a 3 match losing streak. The serve and volleyer is at his best on fast surfaces and I see him slipping past the Verdasco/Zverev winner in a potentially close match. Simon beat Muller last year in Tokyo, and I see him earning a pair of wins to snap a four match losing streak and reach the semifinals.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez won a pair of matches at the US Open to improve his form, but of the four top seeds, he’s still the most likely to exit before the quarterfinals, as the Herbert/Stakhovsky winner could stymie him with their unique styles of play. The Spanish veteran has won a title on indoor hard courts this season though and he has more experience than Herbert in a tough section. The other quarterfinalist will be one of Aleksandr Nedovyesov/Vasek Pospisil/Klizan/Mathieu, with Mathieu my favorite out of the section. Pospisil also has talent but he’s inconsistent, so look for Mathieu past Pospisil, and then Garcia-Lopez over Mathieu in a wide open section.
Frenchmen Herbert, Mathieu, and Mahut could all serve as unseeded dark horses this week, but with the #2 seed Simon struggling, if Muller serves well he could reach the semifinals, and potentially the final out of the bottom half. After gaining some rest, he should be fresh and he plays well on these types of surfaces historically.
Predictions
Semis: Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Simon d. Garcia-Lopez
Tsonga has a h2h win in Metz (2007) but the previous few meetings have gone in favor of Wawrinka, and the Swiss has clearly outperformed his French counterpart this year, and in recent memory. Wawrinka simply should be a cut above his semifinal opposition.
Simon is in a slump but he’s 5-0 in the h2h against GGL, so if he gets this far, he should reach another Metz final.
Final: Wawrinka d. Simon
Presuming Wawrinka devotes effort to this 250 tournament he should win it, he’s the best player in the field by a considerable margin, and a player like Simon won’t be in the form to match him toe to toe right now.
ATP St. Petersburg
St. Petersburg Open
ATP World Tour 250
St. Petersburg, Russia
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: $1,030,000
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Milos Raonic (9)
3: Dominic Thiem (20)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (22)
Even without the strong contingent of home players that Metz sports, St. Petersburg returns to the ATP Tour after funding problems last season with a strong field that features two top 10, and three top 20 players in what should be an entertaining edition of the tournament.
Their teams faced each other in Davis Cup over the weekend, with Bolelli and Italy emerging victorious, but now the young gun Rublev would like to extract some personal revenge for that loss at home in St. Petersburg, where he is one of the stars of the tournament, and the future of Russian tennis at the moment. The teenager qualified for the US Open, snapping a summer of struggles, but his loss in Davis Cup to Fabio Fognini should dent his momentum a bit. Bolelli, a solid player indoors, is also the loser of three straight however and the Italian veteran is looking to gain momentum himself. Look for big hitting in this matchup, and as celebrated as Rublev is, I have Bolelli grinding out the win.
(6)Benoit Paire vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz beat Paire in three sets earlier this year on indoor hard, but Paire has had a much better season than Jerzy and has been in excellent form since the summer. The French all-courter and his one handed backhand reached the second week of the US Open while Janowicz is 2-3 over his last five, which includes Davis Cup duty over the weekend. Janowicz with his power game is also solid indoors, but I have Paire winning this matchup of talented but often underachieving players.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Ernests Gulbis
Two aggressive baseliners will face off in this one, Gulbis one the 2013 edition of St. Petersburg, while Baghdatis is 0-3 since suffering an abductor injury in the ATP Atlanta final back in July. Gulbis has lost four straight and, like Baghdatis, his last match ended in a retirement, as both guys have struggled to get healthy. A poor season for Gulbis is contrasted by a good season overall for Baghdatis, and I have the Cypriot notching the victory presuming his health has sorted itself out. Baghdatis is 3-0 in the hard court h2h.
Tomas Berdych had a poor summer by his top 10 standards, but the Czech is still 45-15 on the season and should have the inside track against Bolelli/Rublev. In the quarterfinals, look for him to face Australian young gun Thanasi Kokkinakis. Kokkinakis opens with pedestrian Spanish veteran Marcel Granollers, and then he’ll face either Joao Sousa or a qualifier in round 2. Both Sousa and Kokkinakis come off of Davis Cup play but Sousa is in poor form, and although he’s had a lot of success on indoor hard, I have Kokkinakis winning that matchup. Berdych should power past Kokkinakis at that stage however.
#3 seed Dominic Thiem reached the third round of the US Open in a decent showing for the Austrian, and he’ll look to continue to improve on fast surfaces with a routine win over Daniel Gimeno-Traver or newlywed Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2, as both players much prefer clay. In the quarterfinals, Mikhail Kukushkin could prove to be the dark horse, as he opens with a relatively struggling Denis Istomin and then will face a qualifier or the mightily slumping Benjamin Becker in round 2. Kukushkin played well at the US Open and beat Istomin at the start of the season, his game tends to peak for these smaller 250 events. Thiem and Kukushkin have never played one another, but Kukushkin’s hard court form is arguably better right now, and I have him scoring the rankings upset and reaching the semis.
Milos Raonic has struggled since Wimbledon with a pedestrian 2-3 record. The Canadian #1 hasn’t been the same with his rocket serve since foot surgery, but he’s playing an easy match to open in St. Petersburg against either Evgeny Donskoy or a qualifier. Donskoy, a wild card, has been in excellent form at the challenger tour level this summer but Raonic should still prove too much for him. In the quarters he’s likely to face another player in a slump, as the Baghdatis/Gulbis winner or Tommy Robredo/Mikhail Youzhny are options. The 33 year old Robredo has had a far superior season to Youzhny, so though Youzhny is playing on home soil, Robredo should get through, and likely get past Baghdatis/Gulbis as well, as they may be rusty in their own right. Raonic is 4-0 against Robredo in the h2h with all wins coming since 2013, so with that in mind the Canadian should make the semifinals.
Roberto Bautista Agut is 29-23 this season and comes off a second week showing in the US Open that should give him some good momentum in what has been a rather average year by his standards. Russian Davis Cup participant Teymuraz Gabashvili, presuming Gaba beats a qualifier, should await him in round 2, and Gabashvili is a player capable of crafting upsets, like he did against Andy Murray this summer in Washington. RBA is the section favorite, but Gabashvili could find form and reach the quarters, though he’s not my pick to do so. Paire/Janowicz or Ricardas Berankis/Lucas Pouille will await most likely ether RBA or Gabashvili at that stage. Presuming Paire continues his run of form, which is always in question, I look for him to make it that far before falling to RBA. Berankis has also been in good form as of late with his undersized game. RBA is 7-0 in the h2h against Paire.
If a non seed is going to reach the semifinals or better, Berankis is the player to watch, he’s just 5-8 but he’s always been talented and he’s one of the better pure baseline ball strikers on the ATP tour. He reached consecutive quarterfinals on the US Open Series this summer and he plays well on fast indoor surfaces. Paire/Janowicz are streaky, and RBA/Gabashvili are beatable, so it’s far from out of the question that the Lithuanian will do well at a tournament that is close to home for him.
Predictions
Semis: Berdych d. Kukushkin
Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Berdych is simply better than Kukushkin and has a h2h win, so like Wawrinka in Metz, if the top seed puts his efforts into this tournament, he’s the favorite. Raonic has a h2h win over RBA last year in Paris, an indoor tournament, and he should be motivated to fight hard this fall on fast surfaces to gain some ranking points after a slow Summer.
Indoors Raonic leads the h2h 2-1, but Berdych appears to be in better form and for that reason I have him as a slight favorite over Raonic in this possible final.
Tennis Atlantic 