The 2018 Rogers Cup final should be long remembered for the emergence of Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas on the ATP’s biggest stage. Tsitsipas reached his first Masters 1000 final (likely the first of many) with four top 10 wins in a single tournament. Against Rafael Nadal he put in a tremendous effort only to fall in straight sets 6-2 7-6(4) in an hour and 43 minutes. Nadal won all but 2 points on his first serve and was only broken once despite Tsitispas best tennis in the second set. Nadal got off to a smooth start, overwhelming Tsitsipas with two breaks to take it with ease. In set 2 Nadal broke in the first game and looked set to run away with it, but Tsitsipas battled back breaking for 5-5. He had a set point to force a third set at 6-5 but he lost it by a netcord and then lost the ensuing tiebreak.
It’s the 4th Rogers Cup for world #1 Nadal, his 5th title of the season, and his first hard court title of the season. Nadal dropped just one set in the tournament, easing past Benoit Paire and Stan Wawrinka before being pushed to 3 sets against Marin Cilic. In the semifinals Nadal took on young gun Karen Khachanov and defeated him in straight sets.
Tsitsipas claimed early wins against Damir Dzumhur and Dominic Thiem, then he stunned Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, and Kevin Anderson in consecutive three set matches his last four wins coming against an extremely high level of competition. Tsitsipas reached the semis in Washington last week and has been in tremendous form this Summer.
Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, and Juan Martin Del Potro Vie for 2018 Rogers Cup Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Rogers Cup in Toronto is the first of two ATP Masters 1000 tournaments on North American Hard Courts this Summer. Here is your look at all the action.
Nadal’s Quarter
Rafael Nadal hasn’t played on a hard court for months but he’s put together a great season overall and has to be one of the favorites in Toronto. Nadal should ease past Jared Donaldson or a struggling Benoit Paire. The section just below Rafa is interesting. Marton Fucsovics faces Joao Sousa, Stan Wawrinka will face Nick Kyrgios. Every player in the section is struggling, and Kyrgios hasn’t been fit. This seems like a good opportunity for Wawrinka or Kyrgios to find a run of form, but Nadal will be favored to prevail in the section.
Marin Cilic will have an interesting matchup with countryman Borna Coric in the second round. Coric will have to beat home favorite Vasek Pospisil in round 1, while Cilic will be favored into the third round. Sam Querrey will be favored against Adrian Mannarino while I have Kyle Edmund reaching round 3, with Edmund defeating Diego Schwartzman, and Querrey before falling to Cilic.
Juan Martin Del Potro gets a brutal round 2 matchup against Kei Nisihkori, presuming Nishikori defeats Robin Haase. With Del Potro having reached the final in Los Cabos he will probably edge Nishikori before facing either home favorite Denis Shapovalov or Fabio Fognini, who defeated him in Los Cabos. Shapovalov opens with Jeremy Chardy, while Fognini faces Steve Johnson. Fatigue could impact this section as I have Shapovalov upsetting Fognini before falling to Del Potro.
John Isner played a poor match in Washington but he looks set to rebound in Toronto. Isner will face Albert Ramos or Pierre Hugues-Herbert. Isner should reach the third round to face off with Pablo Carreno Busta. PCB opens with Yoshihito Nishioka, then an interesting match with Karen Khachanov (or Filip Krajinovic) awaits. A surprise could emerge from the section but Isner over pCB seems sensible.
Kevin Anderson returns to tour after a great run at Wimbledon. Anderson could be challenged by Washington semifinalist Andrey Rublev, presuming Rublev defeats countryman Evgeny Donskoy in round 1. Anderson will be favored against Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round, presuming Bautista Agut can get past a tricky match against Ryan Harrison, and then defeats Yuichi Sugita/Ilya Ivashka.
Milos Raonic will be the favorite as he returns to Canada to face David Goffin in the opening round. Goffin has not been consistent lately. Raonic should also ease past Marco Cecchinato/Frances Tiafoe. Fernando Verdasco should beat Peter Gojowczyk before falling to Grigor Dimitrov. Raonic over Dimitrov, who has been poor lately, is a good third round projection.
Washington champ Alexander Zverev should dominate David Ferrer or Bradley Klahn if he’s fit. I’ll back another Canadian in the draw, young gun Felix Auger Aliassime to upset Lucas Pouille before facing off with either Daniil Medvedev or a struggling Jack Sock. Zverev over Medvedev is my pick for the third round, though Auger Aliassime should surprise.
Novak Djokovic will face off with Hyeon Chung, Matthew Ebden should defeat Peter Polansky before falling to Djokovic in round 2. Dominic Thiem will take on Washington semifinalist Stefanos Tsitsipas , as Tsitsipas should defeat Damir Dzumhur. Djokovic over Thiem is the wise third round projection.
Novak Djokovic laid claim to a fourth ATP Masters 1000 title this year, and also a third career Rogers Cup title (his first since 2012) as he defeated Kei Nishikori in routine fashion 6-3 7-5, completing his utter dominance of the 2016 Rogers Cup in Toronto, where he didn’t drop a set, and only played one match that could be considered somewhat poor.
Despite losing early at Wimbledon in a shocking defeat, Djokovic sh0wed few weaknesses and no signs of stress back on hard courts as he slipped past big server Gilles Muller, and serve and volleyer Radek Stepanek in the first two rounds, despite their best efforts. In the business end of the tournament, Djokovic had to take out three credible top players, Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and Nishikori. He didn’t drop a set against them, and only against Berdych did he display weaknesses in his game, weaknesses the Czech lacked the confidence to exploit, as he continues to struggle against the ATP’s elite in h2h matches. Nishikori gave it his best effort on Sunday afternoon, but his level simply could not match Djokovic, who heads to the 2016 Rio Olympics as the presumptive favorite for the Gold medal in a weakened field.
Nishikori reached his second Masters final this year, the other coming in Miami where he was also swept aside by Djokovic. The Japanese #1 defeated Dennis Novikov and Rajeev Ram early on, then needed three sets against Grigor Dimitrov, who had his chances, but was poor enough on serve he couldn’t pull the match out. Nishikori faced an improved Stan Wawrinka in the semifinals, but Wawrinka continued his somewhat disappointing season as he lost in straight sets, and was breadsticked in the second set after a competitive battle in the first set.
Credit also goes to semifinalist Gael Monfils who has now won nine of his last ten matches. The Frenchman won Washington, and followed that up with wins over David Goffin and Canadian #1 Milos Raonic most notably to reach the semifinals, although he was unable to knock off Djokovic this time.
Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo beat Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares for the doubles final, as it was a battle of the #3 seed team vs. the #2 seed team.
2016 ATP Rogers Cup Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The summer hard court season will kick into high gear with the 2016 Rogers Cup ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, as many ATP players make their final preparations for the Olympic games in Rio that are coming up in August. Here is a preview and predictions.
Rogers Cup
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
July 25-July 31, 2016
Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,089,740
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Stan Wawrinka (5)
3: Kei Nishikori (6)
4: Milos Raonic (7)
5: Tomas Berdych (8)
6: Dominic Thiem (9)
7: David Goffin (11)
8: Marin Cilic (12)
Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer, and a host of other top 30 players are skipping Toronto this year, making this one of the weaker Masters 1000 fields, while also creating more opportunities for those in the top 50 who are playing.
A first time meeting between this fan favorite pairing. Paire should prevail, but Stepanek is a difficult opponent to defeat when he rushes the net well, and Paire is dependent on his backhand clicking to win matches.
Ivo Karlovic vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz looked a bit overwhelmed and overmatched in D.C., it won’t get any easier against the big serving Karlovic in Toronto. Ivo is the heavy favorite, but it will be interesting to see if the young Fritz can fight hard and show some bounce back in this match.
(11)Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC)Denis Shapovalov
Kyrgios is far and above better than the young Wimbledon junior champ Shapovalov in this one, but the Canadian will have home support, and both guys play aggressive battlers tennis. If Kyrgios loses the plot, Shapovalov has the strokes, especially with his one handed backhand, to notch an upset, however Kyrgios serve should dominate play. Expect to see more of Denis in the years to come.
Both players are veterans in poor form who badly need a win, and with Anderson’s penchant for playing (and as of recently losing..) tiebreaks, expect a close battle that is likely to go to three sets. Anderson gets a lot of points this time of year, but if his poor play continues he’s going to drop out of the top 50 sooner than you’d expect. The h2h is tied 1-1.
Donald Young vs. Alex Dolgopolov
Young found some decent form as of late and he hasn’t lost his opening match at a tournament since Roland Garros. Dolgopolov is a tricky shotmaker who could dominate Young in this one, or show signs of weakness and give the American an opening. At a very minimum these two will battle and hit some great shots from the baseline.
Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the Rogers Cup since 2012, but with all of the recent champions absent this year he’s the favorite to improve on his 46-4 record on the season and take home the title. He should ease past Newport finalist Gilles Muller (who opens with a struggling Dmitry Tursunov), then defeat most likely Washington quarterfinalist Benoit Paire in round 3. Paire opens with Stepanek with either Peter Polansky or Tim Smyczek to follow. He’s unpredictable, but he’s likely to win a pair of matches, then bow out meekly to Djokovic.
John Isner and Tomas Berdych look set to meet in the third round for the right to face Djokovic in the quarters, Isner fell in the quarterfinals of Washington, but his form should still be good enough to dispatch Dudi Sela and either Andrey Kuznetsov or in-form qualifier Ryan Harrison to reach round 3. Wimbledon semifinalist Berdych will face either Borna Coric or Ivan Dodig in his second round match, Coric is a solid young player, but didn’t play well enough in D.C. to suggest he will upset Berdych. Berdych over Isner is my pick, given Berdych’s power game should edge Isner matchup wise, although it will be close and could go either way.
Milos Raonic is set for a tricky second round match against Washington semifinalist Alexander Zverev, who is rising quickly up the ranks on all surfaces. Zverev needs only to defeat Rendy Lu in round 1. The home hero Canadian should be bailed out by crowd support and his big serve to prevail however, and likewise Steve Johnson is a difficult opponent in the third round, but Raonic is the favorite to prevail. Johnson knocked off John Isner in Washington and reached the semifinals, showing he can deal with big servers. He’s in great form and should defeat Umag champion Fabio Fognini, and either Jared Donaldson or John Millman to reach round 3. A spot in the quarterfinals would earn Raonic his 20th hard court win of the season.
The fates of Gael Monfils and Sam Querrey are somewhat up in the air, while David Goffin is the player that gets a bye. Goffin has a pair of semifinals in the hard court Masters this year and would face the Wimbledon and Washington quarterfinalist Querrey in round 2, presuming Sam dispatches Frank Dancevic. Querrey is playing some of the best tennis he’s ever played, and his power could be too much for Goffin. They met in Montreal last year and Goffin advanced in a close straight setter. Goffin is my pick though, as he’s proven his mettle in Masters tournaments this season, and likely has the clutch factor.
The Washington champion Monfils should defeat Joao Sousa and then Jeremy Chardy or Vasek Pospisil, both of whom are struggling in recent months. Fatigue could play a factor for Monfils, but he’s playing so well right now I have to pick him over Goffin for the quarterfinals. His movement and serve were exceptional in Washington, while Goffin hasn’t played a match in weeks.
Nishikori’s quarter:
Kei Nishikori and young Frenchman Lucas Pouille look set to do battle in round 3 as Kei would be bidding for 40 match wins on the season. Federico Delbonis or Dennis Novikov should provide little resistance for the efficient Nishikori while the Wimbledon quarterfinalist Pouille faces qualifier Emilio Gomez with Ernests Gulbis or serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram to follow. This smooth path for Pouille will abruptly end against Nishikori, and although the Frenchman is a great young player, on hard court Nishikori should have the shots he needs to advance.
The Kyrgios/Shapovalov winner will face either Yuichi Sugita or a continually struggling Grigor Dimitrov in round 2, for the right to face most likely Marin Cilic in round 3, although Washington finalist Ivo Karlovic, or Fritz are also possible opponents. Karlovic has been dominant on serve in recent weeks, but fatigue will likely catch up to him at his age, while Cilic was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and has a great opportunity in this Masters tournament with some of the big names absent. Cilic’s power should get him past Karlovic, and Kyrgios, who is good enough to defeat Dimitrov, but likely below Cilic’s level, despite Kyrgios win in Marseille this year indoors.
Wawrinka’s quarter:
Stan Wawrinka looks set to face Jack Sock in the third round, presuming Sock defeats struggling fellow American Denis Kudla and the Young/Dolgopolov winner, a tricky but favorable prospect. Wawrinka is 14-3 on the season on hard court, and either Mikhail Youzhny or Stephane Robert are unlikely to provide much resistance in round 2, although a match with Youzhny would treat fans to a battle of great one handed backhanders. Sock was a quarterfinalist in Washington, and I wouldn’t put an upset of Wawrinka past him, but Stan is the favorite in his section with Dolgopolov serving as a bit of a dark horse. Sock’s great forehand will clash with Wawrinka’s great backhand.
Dominic Thiem crashed out of Kitzbuhel, a home tournament for him, in singles, and he has a tough round 2 match on tap with Troicki/Anderson with the winner set to face Bernard Tomic, presuming a streaky Bernie beats qualifier Alejandro Gonzalez, and either Kyle Edmund or wild card Steve Diez. Thiem is 14-5 on hard courts on the season, and he’s played a brutal schedule that may have left him a bit winded recently. With neither Troicki nor Anderson playing well, Thiem over Troicki is my pick, and then Thiem over Tomic, although Bernie could really use a confidence boosting upset on hard court such as that. Thiem beat Tomic earlier this season in Acapulco.
Querrey will need to upset Goffin, and Monfils to reach the quarters, but if he does, even Milos Raonic should be on alert. The American is playing freely right now, and that serious but relaxed attitude is doing his game wonders. Karlovic is unbreakable on serve right now, fatigue likely catches up with him but he could defeat anyone in the draw right now if he can win tiebreaks, and he could reach the quarters.
Predictions
Quarters: Djokovic d. Berdych
Raonic d. Monfils
Cilic d. Nishikori
Thiem d. Wawrinka
Djokovic, despite his shock loss at Wimbledon, is far and above better than Berdych, Raonic vs. Monfils is a tough match to predict, but given the fatigue factor, Raonic likely edges Monfils in a close one. Nishikori could have a better tournament than the quarterfinals, but Cilic should be hungry, and his power likely gives him the edge. Thiem vs. Wawrinka is a battle of one-handers, Wawrinka hasn’t been super impressive this year, and Thiem will look to continue to make his move into the ATP’s elite with some of the other big names absent this tournament.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Thiem d. Cilic
It’s a bold and gutsy move to go with Thiem in the final, but the Rogers Cup looks likely to produce a few surprises. Djokovic should break Canadian hearts and defeat Raonic with his superior return game given their result this year in the IW final.
Final: Djokovic d. Thiem
In ATP Masters 1000’s right now I can’t go against Djokovic, he’s simply the best player in the game right now, and in best of 3 there is little margin of error for his opponents to defeat him unless he has a bad day, and that’s rare for him.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had a resurgent week at the Rogers Cup in Toronto and after a 7-5 7-6 victory over Roger Federer, will return to the top 10 for the first time since March. The title in Toronto the second career masters title for the charismatic Frenchman and his first title overall of the 2014 campaign.
Tsonga beat four of the top 10 this week posting big wins over Novak Djokovic in straights, Andy Murray in 3 sets and Grigor Dimitrov in straights in consecutive matches to reach the final. He also beat Jeremy Chardy and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the second and first rounds respectively. After being in a noticeable decline all season, a return to elite quality for Tsonga comes as a surprise and throws a wrench in what many fans and pundits thought about him and his game as of late. Tsonga has struggled to stay healthy, but he clearly has talent and he could pose a dangerous threat at the US Open in a couple of weeks. He looked fresh and his forehand and serve were clicking as he moved his opponents well to win matches, he truly was a dominant virile player this week, and his play was a throwback to his earlier promise.
Federer also had a strong week, even though he’ll be disappointed by his play in the final, He reached his third masters final of the season (0-3 record now) with wins over Peter Polansky in straights, Marin Cilic in 3 sets, David Ferrer in 3 sets and Feliciano Lopez, a surprise semifinalist in straight sets. Fed does not appear to be ready to fall out of the top 5 anytime soon and he hit circles around most of his opponents this week, along with showing superior mental fortitude and shot selection.
2014 ATP Rogers Cup Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The first of two Masters 1000 level events on the Emirates Airlines US Open Series will take place this year in Toronto starting Monday. Most of the big names are in action and it is the first tune up for many of them before the US Open.
Rogers Cup 2014
ATP Toronto Rogers Cup ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Toronto, Canada
August 4-August 10, 2014
Prize Money: $3,766,270
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (3)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (5)
5: David Ferrer (6)
6: Milos Raonic (7)
7: Grigor Dimitrov (8)
8: Andy Murray (10)
Notably missing from the tournament are defending champion and world number 2 Rafael Nadal with a wrist injury, and top 40 players Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro and Dmitry Tursunov. Juan Martin Del Potro, Alex Dolgopolov, and Tommy Haas are also notable names we aren’t likely to see again this season.
First round matchups to watch:
Radek Stepanek vs. Gael Monfils
Stepanek was upset early in DC and seeks to rebound, while Monfils is finally beginning his post Wimbledon campaign. Both players are seeking to stay healthy and do well, and the style contrast will be fun in this one. They have met many times before and Monfils holds a 5-3 edge in the overall h2h, with it tied 2-2 on outdoor hard courts, the last meetings coming in 2011. I could see this going either way but I’m leaning towards picking Monfils to prevail.
(12)Richard Gasquet vs. Vasek Pospisil
Pospisil now has won two meetings against Gasquet, and he just beat him in the DC semis on Saturday, in that match Gasquet got off to a good start but let his advantage slip in the next two sets and bowed out in a 7-5 third set. The advantage should swing back to Gasquet for this meeting though, as I’m favoring the Frenchman to get his first win in the series because he did return to form in Washington DC after being on a cold streak for a while, and Pospisil, under the pressure of playing at home and defending semifinal points here, is likely to be fatigued after playing so much tennis this past week in DC. That slight change in circumstances, along with Gasquet being a motivated former finalist twice at the Rogers Cup, should make this match even more interesting.
Ivo Karlovic vs. (Q)Bernard Tomic
Another reprisal of a recent high stakes match, Tomic beat Karlovic in three sets by winning a pair of tiebreaks to win the title in Bogota, and will get the big serving Croat again as a qualifier in the Toronto first round. He has two other previous wins over Ivo outside of the Bogota meeting, and does seem to have the formula to get past Dr. Ivo’s serve and volley game
Santiago Giraldo vs. (WC)Nick Kyrgios
DC quarterfinalist Santiago Giraldo, who has had a solid season and is a big hitting shotmaker from the baseline, will do battle with the passionate and fiery Kyrgios, who as a wild card will be playing his first Masters tournament match in Toronto. The young Kyrgios has a heap of talent, great composure and a lot of eyes on him right now as he seeks to follow up his career result at Wimbledon where he beat Nadal and reached the quarterfinals. The winner will meet Andy Murray and this one should be an excellent match full of shotmaking highlights, I favor Kyrgios to get through in 3 sets.
Kevin Anderson vs. (Q)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Young Aussies Kokkinakis and Kyrgios could both win their ATP Masters main draw debuts in Toronto. Kokkinakis, who qualified and has had a good few weeks at the challenger level on hard courts will face the big serving Anderson, who is a solid hard court player but has been down in recent weeks, as he exited earlier than expected in DC, and was upset in his opening match in Atlanta as well. Kokkinakis will have to hold his serve and return well, as Anderson will put a lot of pressure on him with his serve/forehand combo that is elite, but he has a punchers chance if he can keep his nose ahead in the match.
Top Half:
Three time Rogers Cup champion and odds on favorite for a fourth, Novak Djokovic, will face Stepanek/Monfils to start, and then likely Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is making his post Wimbledon debut and looking for a stronger third quarter of his season, in round 3. Tsonga must defeat Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Jeremy Chardy/Federico Delbonis to get to that stage. Djokovic has owned Tsonga in recent years and that trend should continue.
Andy Murray, who is also making his post Wimbledon debut, and seeking to make a move back up the rankings with a strong hard court summer, will face Kyrgios/Giraldo in a big round 2 test, and should he survive he will face Gasquet/Pospisil or Karlovic/Tomic in round 3. It’s a tough draw for Murray but he should be rested and motivated, look for him to get through to meet Djokovic in the quarters.
Stan Wawrinka, also looking to put up a solid result in his post Wimbledon campaign resumption, will face Benoit Paire or Alejandro Falla in round 2. Paire, who had to qualify here, is best friends with Wawrinka and I doubt one will enjoy having to eliminate the other from the tournament should they meet. Look for Wawrinka against one of Kokkinakis/Anderson/Mikhail Youzhny/Fabio Fognini in round 3. Youzhny and Fognini are both struggling, so Kokkinakis/Anderson have a nice chance at making the third round, and Wawrinka should be favored through to the quarterfinals.
Grigor Dimitrov, hopefully healthy again, is also making his post-Wimbledon debut and has had a breakout season. The top Bulgarian may be tested by an in-form Donald Young in round 2, assuming the DC semifinalist Young can defeated Canadian wild card Frank Dancevic. Young made his first semi since 2011 in DC, but assuming Dimitrov is healthy I think he has too much game for the American baseliner (the h2h surprisingly is tied 2-2 and Young leads 2-1 on hard courts). Dimitrov/Young is slated to face one of Tommy Robredo/Philipp Kohlschreiber/Gilles Simon/Dominic Thiem in round 3. Robredo and Kohlschreiber are both struggling veterans, as is Simon, who may also be injured, while Thiem should be tired after playing in the Kitzbuhel final. Someone has to reach round 3 though and Kohlschreiber or Thiem is most likely to do so. Dimitrov/Young are quarterfinalist favorites in this section.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer, seeking to win his third Rogers Cup, will open with Peter Polansky or Jerzy Janowicz, and should get his first big test against Marin Cilic in round 3. Cilic has been good on multiple surfaces this season, including hard courts and is close to reaching the best level of his career. He has never beaten Federer (0-4 last meeting in 2012) and would need to get past Denis Istomin and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Marinko Matosevic, a trio of players who can pull upsets on hard courts, to setup a fifth shot at Federer, but the match should at least be competitive if they meet. Look for Federer to be a quarterfinalist out of his section.
David Ferrer has had a down year this season and is on pace to have fewer wins and more losses than in any of his previous four seasons on tour. He was upset here in his first match last year and though Nicolas Mahut/Michael Russell don’t look like difficult opening match tests, Ferrer has shown he is vulnerable to being upset by journeyman over the past two seasons. He is carrying an elbow injury according to media reports but did not withdraw from the tournament like those reports suggested. If he’s not healthy, an already out of form Ferrer, who seems to have hit the wall, could be upset in his first match, if not look for 10 seed John Isner to send him home in round 3.
Isner seeks to bounce back from a disappointing showing in DC and he faces big server Ivan Dodig, playing his first match since the French Open after being injured, in round 1, Dodig should be unprepared to deal with Isner who plays a similar style as himself, and Isner should get through to face Andreas Seppi/Brayden Schnur in round 2. Canadian qualifier Schnur is making his ATP debut this week after working his way up through college tennis and the challenger circuit. Look for a Federer vs. Isner quarterfinal this week.
Tomas Berdych, another top 10 name who is struggling and was upset early in DC as the top seed, faces Rendy Lu or Marcel Granollers in his first match, and assumingly should advance to round 3 against most likely Roberto Bautista Agut who upset him earlier this spring in Indian Wells. RBA has two titles this season and is close to reaching the top 15 in ranking, he faces a struggling Feliciano Lopez in round 1, and then Tim Smyczek/Tobias Kamke in round 2 before a likely Berdych meeting. Smyczek tore it up in qualifying and is looking to have a resurgent result after slogging through a difficult 2014 season thus far. I look for Bautista Agut to beat Berdych again and reach the quarterfinals.
Defending finalist and DC champ Milos Raonic, one of the two prides of Canada along with Pospisil this week, will have a quick turnaround against Jack Sock/Jurgen Melzer in round 2. Raonic beat Sock in DC winning a pair of tiebreaks last week and overall he has beaten the American 3 times this year and four times overall, losing to him once in their maiden meeting in February 2013. The in form wild card Sock should beat Melzer who was playing on the clay of Kitzbuhel this week, and I give him a good chance against Raonic as well. Milos is likely to be tired and all of their previous head to head meetings have been relatively close. With Sock playing some of the best tennis of his young career right now, beating Raonic would be a stellar result for him. Raonic/Sock are likely to face Ernests Gulbis, always a dangerous lurker, in round 3. Gulbis must defeat Joao Sousa and Lleyton Hewitt/Julien Benneteau to reach that stage. Gulbis vs. Hewitt would be an entertaining and fiery round 2 encounter with Gulbis being slightly favored, they have never met before. This is probably the most open section of the draw and cases can be made for Raonic, Sock, Gulbis and Hewitt to be quarterfinalists.
Dark Horses: Donald Young and Jack Sock
American players have a great chance to post some surprising results at the Rogers Cup this week with Isner, Russell, Smyczek and two players I’ll spotlight for this tournament as dark horses, Young and Sock all having reasonable draws on paper.Young would need to beat Dimitrov but could reach the quarterfinals if he does so as the draw opens up until it gets to Wawrinka. Sock must beat Raonic and Gulbis/Hewitt as discussed, but he could also reach the quarterfinals where Bautista-Agut/Berdych are likely opponents. Sock has a more favorable potential quarterfinal opponent of the two dark horses this week.
Predictions
Quarters: Djokovic d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov
Bautista Agut d. Gulbis
Federer d. Isner
Djokovic beat Murray this season in Miami and he is a gear above the Scot right now, Murray could make it competitive but I don’t see him winning. Dimitrov had no trouble with Wawrinka this season on grass but Wawrinka won their only hard court meeting in 2011 and though it’s a very difficult pick, I’m going with Stan by just a hair, probably in 3 sets. In the hardest to predict quarter, I’m going against the 3-0 h2h in favor of Gulbis, including two wins this season, and picking Bautista Agut. The Spaniard is improving and has had better recent results than Ernie, also their two meetings this season went 3 sets and having watched them both, they were competitive contests where either player could have prevailed based upon just a few points. Federer should be a gear above Isner as well, and he has a 4-1 h2h advantage in that matchup.
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Federer d. Bautista Agut
Stan and Nole have an excellent rivalry going, one of the best in the game currently, and should they reprise it in Toronto, Novak should have the advantage. He’s been the legitimate number one this season and has been elite all year, Wawrinka got him at the AO, but in a best of 3 sets format given both current form and mindset, Novak has to be favored like he has been in all of their previous head to head meetings, a vast majority of which he has won.
Fed and RBA have never met but Federer is the better player and should win.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
With Nadal out, the spotlight shifts to Djokovic and Fed this week in Toronto, they contested a very competitive Wimbledon final, along with three other tournament matches this season, all of which came in the semis or final of a tournament. The h2h this season is split 2-2, and on outdoor hard court Djokovic won in 3 sets in Indian Wells, and before that Federer won in 3 sets in Dubai. Things are very close between these two titans of the sport almost every time they meet to do battle, however a slight edge seems to be favoring Djokovic right now and I’m picking him as the champ this week. ]
Also I’d like to introduce a friendly battle of the brackets between myself and our new ATP Challenger Tour journalist at Tennis East Coast, Chris De Waard, I’ll be including Chris’ weekly picks for the ATP tournaments on my preview posts and we will keep track of our selections compared to the actual results of the tournaments, at the end of the season the winner gets a prize yet to be named.
Chris De Waard’s Picks:
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov
Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Federer d. Ferrer
Tennis Atlantic 