Svetlana Kuznetsova, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Donna Vekic, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Stefano Tsitsipas, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Sascha Zverev, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Sascha Zverev, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Super Sascha Punches His Ticket to Another @CitiOpen Final Steve Fogleman, Tennis Atlantic
The sun broke and held that break through the day session at the Citi Open. With no further rain in the forecast, it was on to unfinished business, starting with Svetlana Kuznetsova, who resumed her quarterfinal already up a set to Yulia Putintseva at 6-2, 2-2. Kuznetsova ran off 4 games and ran off to cool down to warm up for Andrea Petkovic later in the afternoon.
Andrey Rublev, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Andrey Rublev, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Andrey Rublev, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Denis Kudla’s quarterfinal with Andrey Rublev wasn’t really unfinished business since they resumed at 0-0 this afternoon. The hometown favorite, Denis Kudla, struggled badly in the first set but was only broken once in the second. It was all that was needed for Rublev, who won 6-1, 6-4.
Rublev faces Alex de Minaur tonight at 7 for the right to deny Sascha Zverev back to back Citi Open titles.
Donna Vekic was up 3-0 when the rain came last night, and she was ready to go out of the gate, and only lost her grip momentarily before hitting the finish line. After failing to capitalize on two match points chances earlier in the second set, she won the tiebreaker in a speed round to seize the match, 6-1, 7-6(0).
Saisai Zheng, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Saisai Zheng, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Saisai Zheng, 2018 Citi Open (Photo: Tennis Atlantic)
Saisai Zheng was the last player at Citi Open to reach the semis, and she did it just moments before Sascha Zverev and Stefano Tsitsipas took the court on Stadium next door. Her match also never started yesterday and she was playing on fire, as she has done throughout the Citi Open. Allie Kiick gave a last gasp near the end of the second set, but the final was 6-3, 6-1. Zheng plays the nightcap semifinal at 9 against Vekic.
The day’s most anticipated match was easily Zverev and Tsitsipas
Sascha Zverev looked every bit the part of the champion in dressing down opponent Stefano Tsitsipas in the first semifinal. Tsitsipas mounted a rally in the second set but left himself no margin for error. After he was broken in the ninth game while serving at 4-all, the young Greek smacked himself repeatedly in the face. With a win tomorrow, Zverev looks to join the ranks of Chang, Agassi, Del Potro and Rybarikova as back to back champions of this event. After being asked about the rankings, Zverev replied, “I want to win the U.S. Open and then see how many points I have after that.”
Indeed.
Tsitsipas was in decent spirits after the match. He said that playing Sascha was a learning experience. “I will learn from this,”: he said. “Hopefully, I can do better next time against him. He’s a really tough player to beat so if I manage to do better next time, I will see my progression and how much the level has increased.”
2016 ATP Acapulco Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 500 level hard court tournament in the Mexican resort city of Acapulco continues to grow in stature and expand in prominence as a host of ATP stars will battle it out.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 22-27, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $1,413,600
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (6)
2: Kei Nishikori (7)
3: Marin Cilic (12)
4: Dominic Thiem (19)
Acapulco can stake a claim to the strongest field this week, as this 500 level tournament has drawn a deep and varied field.
First round matchups to watch:
Steve Johnson vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Steve Johnson won a three setter against Dolgopolov last year in Vienna, and he’s eager to take advantage of more hard court tennis after a rough start to 2016. Dolgo withdrew from Rio with a shoulder injury and may not be 100%, with that in mind, Johnson is likely a slight favorite.
Rajeev Ram stunned a tanking Bernard Tomic in Delray last week and ended up reaching the ATP final in one of the surprises of last week. Tomic has been in terrible form since the Australian Open swing and appears to be playing careless tennis once again. Ram is likely fatigued though, and thus Tomic has to be the favorite.
(8)Jeremy Chardy vs. (Q)Taylor Fritz
Delray quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy will be the favorite against the young Memphis finalist Taylor Fritz, but Fritz got through qualifying and he’s an incredibly talented young gun. Chardy’s one dimensional attacking tennis is something Fritz could exploit with his offensive, and defensive game. Fritz is a solid player, but he’s still learning the ropes.
Defending champion David Ferrer hasn’t reached an ATP final this season and went 4-2 on clay after Melbourne. He opens with John Millman, who has lost two straight matches, and should defeat Steve Johnson after that to reach the quarterfinals. Ferrer’s weak section could see him face Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals. The veteran Dr. Ivo hasn’t won a match this year, while his first round opponent Aljaz Bedene has also lost four straight since reaching an ATP semi to start the season in Chennai. Karlovic/Bedene will face either wild card Luis Patino, a futures player, or Robin Haase, who is 1-4 in his last five matches. Karlovic’s trusty serve should see him reach the quarters, only to fall to Ferrer.
Marseille finalist Marin Cilic could be dealing with jetlag. Cilic opens with qualifier Ryan Harrison who continues to play on the fringes of ATP caliber tennis. Cilic is 2-0 in the h2h against Harrison and Illya Marchenko or qualifier Tommy Paul will follow in round 2. Paul is a young gun with promise, though Marchenko is a slight favorite. Cilic should dominate this section if he’s not overly fatigued, but Harrison could surprise.
Tomic/Ram is slated to face futures player Tigre Hank or Adrian Mannarino, a quarterfinalist in both Sofia and Delray Beach. Tomic has two three set wins over Mannarino, both came last year on hard courts, and one was in Acapulco. His poor form makes the Frenchman a dark horse to reach the quarterfinals though. Cilic is also 2-0 against Mannarino, but his fatigue should catch up to him, and I have it Ferrer vs. Mannarino in the semis. If Tomic can find form, he should reach the semis.
Bottom Half:
Kei Nishikori is the favorite to take the title this week, and he’ll open with qualifier Thiemo de Bakker. Delray champion Sam Querrey lost to Nishikori in Memphis, and presuming Querrey beats a struggling Dudi Sela, he’s still likely to lose to Kei once more. Chardy should beat veteran Victor Estrella, or another Mexican local player, Lucas Gomez, to reach the quarters. Nishikori has won his last two hard court meetings against Chardy and is in better form.
Dominic Thiem is 13-4 with an ATP title this season. The Austrian is making a push for the top 15 and beyond and he’s one of the top players of the season thus far. Thiem has shown his skill on both hard courts and clay. His round 1 opponent Damir Dzumhur has nothing to compare to his skillset, with a struggling Sam Groth, or Dmitry Tursunov to follow. Tursunov is returning from a lengthy injury layoff and hasn’t successfully completed an ATP main draw level match since the 2014 US Open. Even if Thiem is fatigued, he should slide into the quarters with this weak draw.
Grigor Dimitrov is a positive 10-4 on the season, but he has been denied a pair of ATP titles he was the favorite to claim in Sydney and Delray Beach. Dimitrov’s mental inconsistency is unlikely to be a problem in round 1 given his groundstrokes are better than a struggling Denis Kudla, but it could be an issue in round 2. The winner of Donald Young/Gilles Muller is in Dimitrov’s seedline, and the big server Muller, who dominated Young in Atlanta last year, has two ATP semifinals this season. Dimitrov beat Muller in Sydney but has lost to him twice before. That is an intriguing round 2 match, with Dimitrov the favorite to advance to the quarters.
The match of the tournament could be Dimitrov vs. Thiem in the quarterfinals, presuming both overcome fatigue, it will be their first meeting. Thiem has been better than Dimitrov this year, but Dimitrov is a good fast surface player, and will likely be somewhat fresher, thus I have him reaching the semis.
Mannarino will need to upset Tomic (or Ram), and Cilic, but he has a great chance to reach the semifinals as an unseeded player. His unique game is capable of peaking and posting big wins on fast surfaces.
Predictions
Semis Ferrer d. Mannarino
Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Ferrer is 2-0 against Mannarino, Nishikori is also 2-0 against Dimitrov, and both have clear paths to the final.
Final Nishikori d. Ferrer
Ferrer upset Nishikori in the Acapulco final last year, and Nishikori should be eager to get him back in this one. Kei has had a decided edge in their other recent hard court meetings, and he appears ready to rise up in this one.
2016 ATP Dubai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour will stop in the middle east once again for the 500 level hard court tournament in Dubai.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E.
February 22-27, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,249,215
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Tomas Berdych (8)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (18)
The Dubai field has a big drop off outside of the marquee names, but it’s still a quality 500 level tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Feliciano Lopez vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
A battle of veteran Spaniards who have split their career hard court meetings. The serve and volleyer Lopez and the all-courter Garcia-Lopez have both gotten off to poor starts this season, and badly need to get in rhythm. Lopez should have a slight edge to snap his two match losing streak and reach round 2 on this fast surface. Lopez is a two-time former finalist in Dubai.
Pospisil has lost four straight, while the qualifier Pouille has an ATP quarterfinal already this season. Pospisil should serve well, but Pouille’s forehand gives him an edge to notch an upset and reach round 2.
(5)Viktor Troicki vs. Marcos Baghdatis
The veteran Baghdatis has 3 ATP wins this season, and a 4-1 record on hard courts against Troicki. The Serbian has been off the charts recently with a 12-4 record to start the season. With Troicki in fantastic form, he should edge Baghdatis, and perhaps post another deep run at this tournament.
The Rotterdam champion Klizan is 8-1 over his last nine matches, Kyrgios comes off his first ever ATP title in Marseille, as both are in fantastic form, and unfortunately one of these players has to suffer an early exit. Kyrgios is the stronger player if he can continue his momentum.
Top Half:
Novak Djokovic suffered a hard court loss in 2014 to Tommy Robredo, but he hasn’t lost a match in 2016 and he’s far and above the #1 player in the world right now, especially on a fast hard court. He should beat Robredo and ease past either qualifier Mikhail Youzhny or wild card Malek Jaziri for a spot in the quarterfinals. Youzhny is on an incredible 17 match winning streak, mostly at the challenger level, and the Russian veteran has fought his way back into tour level form after previously being a top 10 player. Expect to see more from him this year. Jaziri by contrast is off to a dreadful start to the season.
Lopez/Garcia-Lopez will face wild card Yuki Bhambri or Lukas Rosol for a spot in the quarterfinals. Bhambri hasn’t won a match this season, while Rosol is on a two match losing streak. I give Rosol a slight edge over Lopez to reach the quarters, though Djokovic is unlikely to drop a set en route to the semis.
4 seed Roberto Bautista Agut, and 5 seed Viktor Troicki are two of the most in-form players thus far in 2016. They are on track for a quarterfinal meeting, presuming RBA can handle Italian veteran Simone Bolelli, and then Hyeon Chung/Andreas Seppi, and Troicki can beat Baghdatis and the Pouille/Pospisil winner. Chung could use a win over Seppi to get his season going, RBA beat Troicki in the Sofia final, and thus has the edge to reach the semis. RBA has two ATP titles, and just three losses this season.
Bottom Half:
Stan Wawrinka suffered an early exit to his friend Benoit Paire in Marseille, and he is in shaky form right now. A struggling Sergiy Stakhovsky isn’t likely to oust him in round 1 though, Wawrinka beat Stako in a third set tiebreak in Marseille last week 10-8 in the 3rd. Wawrinka’s round 2 opponent will be either Teymuraz Gabashvili or qualifier Franko Skugor. The veteran Gabashvili can peak and win big matches, but Wawrinka is a clear favorite for the quarters.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is 5-2 in recent tournaments, he’ll open with struggling wild card Marsel Ilhan (1-4 in 2016). Kohli has a clear path to the quarters if he’s not upended by young gun Borna Coric in round 2. Coric opens with Jiri Vesely. Vesely has struggled in 2016 (1-4 record), while Coric has been poor since reaching the Chennai final to start the season. Kohlschreiber’s form should allow him to reach the quarters.
Wawrinka has never played Kohlschreiber on hard courts, and he should be on upset alert in the quarters. Both players have nifty one handed backhands, and I still give Wawrinka the edge to reach the semis.
Former Dubai finalist Tomas Berdych is also a favorite for the semis. Berdych opens with Joao Sousa, who is struggling mightily as of late, and then will face Thomas Fabbiano or Leonardo Mayer, both of whom have limited weapons compared to his power hitting game. Berdych could face Nick Kyrgios, who beat him in Marseille, in the quarters, if Kyrgios beats Klizan and Mikhail Kukushkin/Denis Istomin. Istomin hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Kukushkin retired in his last match. Given the fatigue factor, I have Berdych avenging his loss to Kyrgios and reaching the semis. Berdych also beat NK this year at the AO.
The unseeded young guns Kyrgios and Coric could reach the quarterfinals or better in Dubai. Kyrgios demonstrated his full range of attacking tennis in Marseille, and clearly has the talent to compete with the best in the game on a week to week basis. Backing up that Marseille win with another big semifinal would be a huge result for him, and we’ll see if it it comes to fruition.
Predictions
Semis
Djokovic d. Bautista Agut
Berdych d. Wawrinka
Djokovic has two previous wins in Dubai over RBA (3-0 h2h), even with RBA in the form of his career, the Serbian will have to beat himself to lose.
Berdych has had little success in recent years against Wawrinka, but Stan seemed off in Marseille, and I think the Czech will take advantage on a fast surface and reach the final.
Final
Djokovic d. Berdych
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Berdych in the last three seasons, and given he beat Tomas in Doha, this result is unlikely to be different. Novak is the clear favorite to continue his winning streak this week in Dubai.
2015 ATP Basel and Valencia Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Two weeks are left in the 2015 ATP Season as the tour stops for a 500 level tournament in Basel, and a 250 level tournament in Valencia, both on indoor hard courts.
ATP Basel
Swiss Indoors Basel
ATP World Tour 500
Basel, Switzerland
October 26-November 1, 2015
Prize Money: €1,575,295
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (3)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (7)
4: Kevin Anderson (12)
5: Richard Gasquet (11)
6: John Isner (14)
7: Marin Cilic (13)
8: David Goffin (17)
A host of top 20 players invade Basel as the final ATP 500 of the season boast a top notch field for a 500 level tournament. Basel has gone above and beyond the home heroes Federer and Wawrinka in terms of attracting tennis talent.
First round matchups to watch:
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (Q)Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz came through qualifying and is 8-3 in his last three indoor hard court tournaments, he also a h2h indoor hard court win over the veteran Kohlschreiber. Peppo is 7-2 in his own right since the US Open though and has posted two ATP semifinal showings this Fall. Big hitting will collide with quality ball striking and with both players in good form it should be a high quality contest. I see Kohlschreiber surviving this early test.
(4)Kevin Anderson vs. Borna Coric
Anderson rolled past the young gun Coric in Winston-Salem this year but the Croatian is returning to the scene of one of his best ever wins, as he beat Rafael Nadal in a shocker here last year. Anderson has two ATP quarterfinals this fall and continues to play some great fast surface tennis. Coric is just 1-3 in his last four matches and could badly use a confidence boosting win. This one should be closer than expected but Anderson should serve too well for Coric to notch an upset.
(6)John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis
Ernests Gulbis has plenty of talent but he’s endured yet another awful and disappointing season.With that said, things may be turning around for the Latvian #1, as he reached his first ATP semifinal of the season in Vienna and snapped a long losing streak. Isner lost to Gulbis in Vienna last week and he’s looking to avenge that three set defeat with methodical serving. Given his 2-1 overall h2h on hard courts and Gulbis lack of consistency I look for the American #1 to avoid getting upset again.
(2)Stan Wawrinka vs. Ivo Karlovic
Home hero Stan Wawrinka needed a third set tiebreak to get past the big serving Ivo Karlovic in Cincy this year, but he leads the overall h2h 5-1 and he’ll have the crowd behind him for this tricky opening round match. Nobody likes to play Karlovic given how well he serves and he does have two ATP quarterfinals this Fall. With that said, Wawrinka’s form and motivation should be good enough to win a tiebreak or two and advance.
Top Half:
Six time Basel champion Roger Federer always plays well at his home tournament and has been fantastic this season when not facing the top 3 (excluding his shocking early loss in Shanghai to Albert Ramos). Federer could have an interesting round 2 match against the Kohlschreiber/Janowicz winner, but otherwise I look for him to get through to the semifinals unscathed. Federer is 2-0 against his round 1 opponent Mikhail Kukushkin, a journeyman, and 10-0 in the h2h against Kohli, though the German has tested him this season. In the quarterfinals the Swiss Maestro is likely to face David Goffin, his understudy. Goffin isn’t in great form but he opens with a struggling Andreas Seppi, and then either Viktor Troicki, or more likely qualifier Adrian Mannarino, both of whom are struggling as well. Federer is 2-0 against Goffin and they met in the final of Basel last year.
Anderson and Isner should be on a collision course to meet in the quarterfinals, if young talents with firepower don’t derail them. After Coric, Anderson will face either Henri Laaksonen or Donald Young and he should roll through that one given his superior talent and form. Isner has a more difficult test with Stockholm finalist Jack Sock likely to await him in round 2. Sock will need to beat fellow American Denis Kudla first, and Isner of course has to beat Gulbis. Kudla has won the past three meetings against Sock, even though Jack has surpassed him in terms of ranking and career accomplishments. Sock has an ATP quarterfinal and his second career ATP final already on his resume this Fall and is in the midst of a career year. Given the fact he played in both the singles and doubles finals in Stockholm, Kudla upsetting a tired Sock wouldn’t surprise me, and I give Isner an edge to get past Sock regardless (4-1 h2h).
Isner has won the last five meetings against Anderson and though it should be a tight quarterfinal contest, I give the American #1 the edge to survive in tiebreaks and reach the semifinals.
Bottom Half:
Stan Wawrinka has never reached the finals in Basel and his draw doesn’t get any easier after Karlovic as the dangerous shotmaker Alexandr Dolgopolov should await him in round 2. Dolgo faces qualifier Dusan Lajovic and is likely to snap a five match losing streak since reaching the Cincy Masters semis this summer. Dolgo has a 2-1 h2h edge over Wawrinka, who can get erratic at times and play well below his ranaking (while Dolgo can play like a top 10 player). With that said, given the Ukrainians poor form as of late I favor Wawrinka (or Karlovic) to reach the quarters. There, Stockholm semifinalist Richard Gasquet should be waiting and he may well be the favorite to reach the semifinals after going through a path of Jiri Vesely and most likely Dominic Thiem in rounds 1 and 2. Thiem has hit the skids since reaching the semis in St. Petersburg and faces qualifier Robin Haase first up. Both Gasquet and Thiem have very technically sound games and it should be a must-see match in round 2 if they meet.
I look for Gasquet to continue his good form and oust the Tokyo champion Wawrinka at home. once more denying him a shot at the Basel trophy. Gasquet beat Wawrinka on grass this year at Wimbledon and each player features an elite backhand.
Rafael Nadal got a relatively benign path to the quarterfinals, The Spaniard, who is 7-2 since the US Open with an ATP final and semifinal on hard courts, opens with Lukas Rosol first up. Rosol famously shocked him at Wimbledon, but he’s failed to repeat that type of result on a consistent basis, and though he comes off the quarterfinals in Vienna I don’t see lighting striking twice. A seemingly healthy Nadal badly needs late season points to boost his ranking and should give it his all after another rough season by his standards. Grigor Dimitrov, a quarterfinalist in both Stockholm and Kuala Lumpur, is another player with the talent to trouble, and in fact, oust Nadal, but given his flat season and recent form, I don’t see that happening. Dimitrov, who is now working with Franco Davin as his coach, played better in Stockholm last week but is still playing well below his abilities. Nadal is 6-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, who opens with Sergiy Stakhovsky round 1.
Marin Cilic has been on fire since the US Open and he was given perhaps the easiest path to the quarterfinals of any of the seeds. The Moscow champion is 10-3 this Fall and is finally back playing near to the level he was at when he won the US Open title, before he suffered an injury that messed up the first half of his 2015 season. Cilic is playing above his current ranking and should blitz Marco Chiudinelli and Moscow quarterfinalist Teymuraz Gabashvili (who opens with a struggling Leonardo Mayer) in his first two matches. Fatigue could play a factor in his performance, but he has such an easy early path that I see him getting through.
On a hard court Cilic has the game to give Nadal fits, but with both players in good form, I give Rafa an edge due to the fact he should be fresher for their match, either way it’s an interesting section.
Dark Horse Ivo Karlovic
Jack Sock is likely too gassed to make a run in this one, so I’m going with Karlovic as my dark horse this week. All it takes is Dr. Ivo winning a couple of tiebreaks and he could slip past Wawrinka and bust the bottom half of the draw wide open. At 36 he’s a remarkable 36-23 on the season with an ATP title, an ATP final, and a handful of ATP semifinals as well. Karlovic has already beaten Tomas Berdych, Novak Djokovic, and Milos Raonic this season, and he’s looking to add Wawrinka (and possibly Gasquet’s) name to that list.
Prediction
Semis: Federer d. Isner
Nadal d. Gasquet
You can’t really predict Federer not to reach the final here no matter what happens with the other section. The tournament organizers surely want a Federer vs. Nadal final, and I feel they are going to get it this time. Presuming Wawrinka goes out, Rafa (or Cilic) have a big edge to make the final. Gasquet has a famous mental block against Rafa.
Final: Federer d. Nadal
Nadal has a matchup edge with Fed generally speaking, but indoors and with Federer in much better form this season the Swiss should take his seventh Basel trophy.
ATP Valencia
Valencia Open
ATP World Tour 250
Valencia, Spain
October 26-November 1, 2015
Prize Money: €537,050
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Feliciano Lopez (16)
3: Bernard Tomic (18)
4: Fabio Fognini (22)
Basel is understandably much stronger this week but Valencia has still gathered some fan favorites and three top 20 players.
First round matchups to watch:
Joao Sousa vs. Gilles Muller
Joao Sousa has lost three straight but he did reach the final in St. Petersburg and he’s at his best in these indoor hard court 250s where he often gets on a hot streak and rides it to a final. The Portugese ballstriker will go up with the consistent serve and volleyer Gilles Muller. You know what you’re going to get with Muller, but he’s had a fantastic season and has two ATP quarterfinals and a semifinal on his resume this fall (7-3 record). You never know with Sousa, but Muller should continue to serve well and volley crisply for a win.
(7)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (WC)Nicolas Almagro
Fan favorite Spaniard Nico Almagro is trying his best to return to the ATP level after injuries, while his countryman Roberto Bautista Agut looks to continue the energy from his best result of the season in Moscow, where he reached the final last week. Almagro won a round in Stockholm last week and RBA could be feeling fatigued, making this match worth watching, but more than likely RBA will be too consistent and advance.
Steve Johnson vs. Martin Klizan
Steve Johnson is nearly into the top 30 now and he’s in the midst of a career year o nthe ATP World Tour. Johnson is favored in this match after reaching his first ever ATP final in Vienna, and he’ll try to follow up that run with a solid win over the power hitter Klizan, who posted a semifinal in Metz not long ago. Klizan is very inconsistent but when he’s at his best it’s hard to deal with his powerful ground strokes. Johnson should be favored but I’m not certain he’ll win this.
Top Half:
David Ferrer is a three time champion in Valencia and he badly wants to clinch his ATP World Tour finals spot at home. The Spanish veteran is 50-12 this season and just captured his fifth title this year in Vienna. He also has a title in Kuala Lumpur this Fall and he’s tearing up the indoor hard court circuit. Nick Kyrgios, a semifinalist in Kuala Lumpur, and a quarterfinalist in Tokyo, will do his best to stop him, presuming Kyrgios beats a qualifier in round 1. That should be a difficult test for a possibly fatigued Ferrer, and Kyrgios has the firepower to win it, but Ferrer’s fight and consistent groundstrokes should help him advance.
Look for Jeremy Chardy or Vasek Pospisil to fall victim to that trademark Ferrer fight in the quarterfinals. Pospisil opens with a struggling Santiago Giraldo while Chardy faces Aljaz Bedene. They both should win those matches, and Chardy has been in better form (reached the quarters in Stockholm) thus I have him beating Pospisil. Though to his credit, the Canadian has had tough draws recently. Ferrer is 7-2 against Chardy in the h2h but Chardy shocked him at the US Open this year when Ferrer wasn’t 100% healthy. Ferru will get his revenge and reach the semis this week.
Shanghai quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic lost early in Stockholm but he should be a near lock for the quarterfinals this week, with only Pablo Cuevas/Pablo Carreno Busta in his way. Tomic is inconsistent and that’s something either Muller/Sousa or Benoit Paire should take advantage of. Paire opens with a qualifier and has been playing with renewed passion this season. The Frenchman has a challenger and an ATP final since reaching the second week of the US Open. With that said, he could well be fatigued from those runs. I have Muller beating Sousa, Paire, and the junkballer Tomic to reach the semifinals as a dark horse. The conditions in Valencia should suit his game.
Bottom Half:
Feliciano Lopez has a terrible record in Valencia and he could well go down in defeat once more at the hands of Johnson/Klizan. The 34 year old has an ATP final this Fall in Kuala Lumpur, but his poor record here has me favoring Klizan to sneak into the quarterfinals thanks to a lucky draw, even though it looks harsh. Fernando Verdasco also has a good draw, needing only to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (6-2 h2h) and a qualifier to reach the quarterfinals. GGL did reach the Shenzen final but both Spaniards could badly use a positive result right now as they are struggling. Verdasco beat Klizan at Wimbledon this year, but the Spaniard is in the midst of his career decline and Klizan should find a way to dark himself to a win.
Beijing semifinalist and Vienna quarterfinalist Fabio Fognini seems to have found that rare moment of consistent top 20 play, and he’s not going to want to share that bliss with either a qualifier or the struggling Thomaz Bellucci in round 2. Fognini should make it to consecutive ATP quarterfinals, and he’ll have a great shot to knock off fellow ball striker RBA in the quarters (5-2 h2h). RBA faces Marcel Granollers/Andrey Rublev in round 2, presuming he defeats Almagro.
Dark Horse: Gilles Muller
If Muller plays within himself and relies on his trademark style he should at least draw some crowds, and at the best manufacture a late career masterpiece and find a way to win an ATP title in Valencia. Like Karlovic, Muller’s serve and volleying leaves little room for error, and he faces a beatable field if he’s allowed to do things his way.
Prediction
Semis:
Ferrer d. Muller
Fognini d. Klizan
Fognini is the stronger player in his section, and he’s faced Klizan in big matches before. Ferrer tends to play well against serve and volleyers.
Final:
Ferrer d. Fognini
Look for Fognini to catch fire and beat down anyone in his path, that is except for Ferrer, who strikes the ball well and should be able to challenge everything Fognini does well. The Spaniard is motivated and that has to be part of the equation when it comes to taking the title. Ferrer jut got past Fognini indoors in Vienna.
Tennis Atlantic 2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 8 (Acapulco, Dubai, Buenos Aires) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Two 500 pointers are at stake with Acapulco and Dubai, while 250 points can be gained from the clay court tournament in Buenos Aires, as a vast majority of the ATP World Tour’s stars are in action this week.
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haase vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Gabashvili vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Kokkinakis vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Qualifier, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Haider-Maurer, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Haider-Maurer vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Haider-Maurer vs. Ferrer Champion: Ferrer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Johnson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Johnson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Mannarino, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Mannarino vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Karlovic vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Opinions are mixed on how David Ferrer will fare coming off his Rio title, but Kei Nishikori is the consensus pick to win his second ATP title of the year, while defending champ Grigor Dimitrov is predicted to come up just short by most of our analysts.
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, McGee vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Rosol vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
2 people have Fed as champ, 2 people have Novak as champ, and everyone has the same semifinal pairings this week, in a draw that is expected to remain true to form late into the tournament.
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Vesely, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Lorenzi vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Andujar vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Fognini vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Qualifier, Andujar vs. Nieminen Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Mayer vs. Nieminen Final: Nadal vs. Mayer Champion: Nadal
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Carreno-Busta, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Andreozzi vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Rola, Mayer vs. Gonzalez, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Bellucci, Fognini vs. Qualifier, Mayer vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Robredo Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Berlocq vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Monaco vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Monaco Champion: Nadal
Nobody appears to be comfortable picking against Nadal on clay, with Pablo Cuevas a favorite for the final.
Courtney blew the rest of the field out of the water this week in Delray, taking the title as her favorite Ernests Gulbis has before, she was the only one to correctly predict Ivo Karlovic as champion.
Jeff makes a big move this week, rising from 4th to second with a tremendous 800 point gain, Courtney won an event but actually dropped one spot into third, while Niall remains bringing up the rear.
David Ferrer took advantage of a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event in Rio, and captured his second title of the 2015 season with a 6-2 6-3 drubbing of Fabio Fognini. Ferrer broke early on against Fognini, and shellacked him the rest of the way. Though a few games were close, Ferrer broke Fognini’s desire by the time he got his first break of the second set and went up 6-2 5-1, eventually closing it out 6-3. His movement and shotmaking were top quality, while Fognini lacked consistency.
Previously in the tournament, Ferrer, who has lost just once this year, defeated Daniel Gimeno-Traver in straights, Thiemo De Bakker via retirement from a set up, Juan Monaco in 3 sets, 6-2 in the third, and surprise semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in straights. Haider-Maurer upset Tommy Robredo en route to the semis in a great week for the veteran dirtballer.
Fognini, who was in atrocious form going into this tournament, recaptured some of his previous top 15 ability on clay and scored wins over Jiri Vesely in 3 sets, Pablo Andujar in straights, and Federico Delbonis in 3 sets, before shocking Rafael Nadal 7-5 in the third set to reach the final. With the exception of the Andujar match, all of Fognini’s contests were remarkable to watch this week. He got breadsticked in the opening set against Vesely, and looked listless, but stormed his way back to win a second set tiebreak 9-7, after which Vesely collapsed. Against Delbonis he generated more than a half dozen match points over two sets (he lost the second set tiebreak 10-8 after taking the first set), in the third he took the tiebreak 11-9 in the longest match of his career that ended after midnight in Rio. Again Nadal he was also breadsticked in the opening set, in a match that appeared routine, but stormed his way back to win the final two sets.
Martin Klizan and Philipp Oswald formed a winning partnership in the doubles, they defeated Pablo Andujar and Oliver Marach in the doubles final, as Oswald beat his countryman Marach.
Gilles Simon won his first title in over a season, and his second career Marseille title (the other came in 2007) with a nailbiting 6-4 1-6 7-6 victory over his countryman Gael Monfils. The win will help Simon stay in the top 20, and he beat Monfils even while winning 7 fewer total points, and generating fewer break point chances (8 compared to 11). In the third, both players broke once, and Simon took the final set tiebreak 7-4.
Simon beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert from a set up via retirement, and then beat Borna Coric in 3 sets, Jeremy Chardy in 2 sets, and Sergiy Stakhovsky from a set down, in 3 sets. Stakohovsky upset Stan Wawrinka this week in a massive win for him.
Monfils again played well on home soil, beating Alex Zverev, Andrey Kuznetsov, Simone Bolelli and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set.
Marin Draganja and Henri Kontinen won the doubles title over UK duo Colin Fleming and Jonathan Marray.
Ivo Karlovic joined Simon as a veteran champion this week, the old school, big serving 35 year old beat an in-form Donald Young 6-3 6-3 with 13 aces and 3 breaks of serve. Young generated 7 break point chances against the Croat but no success at taking them as he lost his second career ATP final. The title is the sixth of Karlovic’s career, and his first since 2013, Karlovic moves to 6-7 in ATP finals and did one better than his 2010 final in Delray.
Dr. Ivo performed successful surgeries against Dustin Brown in 3 sets, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Steve Johnson, and Adrian Mannarino all in straights.
Young continued his strong run of play with wins over Ivan Dodig, Alejandro Gonzalez, Alex Dolgopolov and Bernard Tomic this week, the latter two wins coming in 3 sets. Also notable is Yoshihito Nishioka, the Japanese teenager reached his first ever ATP quarterfinal, by qualifying and defeating Igor Sijsling and Marinko Matosevic in straight sets, before losing to Tomic.
The Bryans won a doubles title on home soil over Raven Klaasen and Leander Paes.
On an interesting sidenote, a total of 7 main draw singles retirements took place in one day (2 in Delray, 4 in Rio, 1 in Marseille), 8 total retirements took place on tour this week, in what seems like a high number for a week on the ATP tour.
2015 ATP Acapulco, Dubai, and Buenos Aires Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of 500 series events on hard courts this week are the highlight of the ATP calendar, as most stars will take to the courts in Mexico or Dubai, meanwhile, the ATP Golden Swing on clay concludes in Buenos Aires, with those who prefer the dirt taking their talents to Argentina for the 250 level event.
ATP Acapulco
2015 ATP Acapulco Preview
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $1,414,550
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
4: Kevin Anderson (15)
The seed cutoff is 40 (Benjamin Becker), and 4 of the top 20 are participating in this 500 level event this week.
Estrella is in tremendous form at the moment, he won the Morelos challenger on hard courts in Mexico, after winning his maiden ATP title in Quito. Lu, the steady veteran baseliner, reached the quarters in Delray, with an upset win over Kevin Anderson. I have Estrella winning this matchup given how well the veteran is playing right now, but it could go either way.
Bernard Tomic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players come off semifinals in Delray, Tomic beat Viktor Troicki en route later losing to Donald Young, while Mannarino beat Lu, and also Denis Kudla, before falling to eventual champion Ivo Karlovic. Tomic should be favored as he’s in better recent form and has won consecutive matches in every tournament he’s played this season (12-5 ATP record in 2015), expect a quality contest all the same though.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori opens with a qualifier, and then the Estrella/Lu winner, Estrella is a dangerous opponent right now, but the top 5, and normally consistent Nishikori, should reach the quarterfinals with Sam Groth/Alex Dolgopolov his most likely opponent. The winner of Groth/Dolgopolov, will face Robin Haase or Rio semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2. Dolgo was a quarterfinalist in Delray, and I give him a slight edge to beat Groth, and then Haase to reach the quarters here. Nishikori, who won the title in Memphis, and has made quarterfinals or better at every tournament this season (10-2 ATP record), is 2-0 in the h2h against Dolgo, with both wins coming on hard court, so I favor Asia’s top player over the unpredictable Dolgopolov for a spot in the semifinals.
Kevin Anderson, a finalist last year, will open with fellow big server Dustin Brown. Though Anderson lost early in Delray, he was a finalist in Memphis, and I have him getting through Brown, and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters. Johnson hasn’t lost in the opening round of any tournament this year (9-5 ATP record including consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Memphis). Johnson will open with Ivan Dodig, who has been thus far unable to return to his previous top 40 form this year. Anderson already has 2 wins against Johnson this year without dropping a set in Memphis and Auckland, and that’s why he’s the quarterfinal favorite.
Viktor Troicki, who lost to Tomic in Delray, has a reasonable chance at another quarterfinal showing, he opens with Mexican wild card Daniel Garza, who has some of the worst physical conditioning I’ve ever seen in a professional tennis player. After that, Troicki is likely to face Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo is 2-0 against Troicki, including a hard court win, but he retired in his last match in Rio, and given the surface, with Troicki already having an ATP title, and a quarterfinal on his resume this year, the Serbian should be favored. Troicki beat Anderson once three and a half years ago in Washington, and that match could go either way but with Anderson having previous success here, I have him into the semifinals over Troicki.
Rio champion David Ferrer opens with Igor Sijsling, who continues to struggle having lost three straight, even if Ferrer is a bit worn down, he only has one loss on the season, with two ATP titles (Doha and Rio), and with that in mind he should roll past Sijsling and then Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers to reach the quarters. Matosevic has struggled this year (2-5 ATP record), while Granollers has a lone good showing this year in Zagreb (semifinals) I have Ferrer over Granollers in my bracket. Ferrer is 3-1 on hard courts against him, though Granollers won their last meeting in Tokyo.
The Tomic/Mannarino winner is a possible quarterfinal opponent for Ferrer, but watch out for 8 seed Benjamin Becker as well. Becker, who comes off a round 1 loss in Memphis, and is 2-4 on the year, opens with Tobias Kamke, a fellow German. Becker is 3-0 against Tomic, though they have never met on a hard court surface, I personally have Tomic into the quarters against Ferrer in my own bracket. Ferrer is 2-0 against Tomic, with both meetings on hard courts, and he has never dropped a set against the Aussie, still fatigue may be a factor, giving Tomic a shot at the semis.. In my own bracket I’m going with Ferrer, who has had an under the radar solid season already and isn’t presently showing signs of decline. Ferrer was only pushed to 3 sets once last week in Rio.
Defending champ Grigor Dimitrov has failed to impress this year, the Bulgarian number one opens with Filip Krajinovic in round 1, he should get through that, but Donald Young should give him a round 2 test, unless fatigue is a factor. Young, a finalist in Delray, and semifinalist in Memphis, opens with a qualifier, and he has two previous hard court wins against Dimitrov, but Dimitrov has also won twice on hard courts, with three of their four hard court meetings going 3 sets. Dimitrov hasn’t played like a top 10 player thus far but given his previous success here, and Young’s fatigue, I have Dimitrov into the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic, the Delray champion, has an interesting draw, in theory he should comfortably reach the quarterfinals, given his opponents, Teymuraz Gabashvili and Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, are not exactly hard court superstars, but at his age, one has to wonder if he will be fatigued, creating an opening for a qualifier, or one of those other two players to reach the quarterfinals. I don’t trust Karlovic’s fitness and thus I have Gabashvili through, and also I have him over Lajovic, who may fall to a qualifier, to reach the quarterfinals. Gabashvili has lost three straight, while Lajovic has lost two straight and he’s normally poor on hard courts. All the same Dimitrov has a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event, and should ease his way into the semifinals.
Viktor Troicki is a possible semifinalist this week, but I give Tomic the official designation because he’s been consistent this year, which is a surprising thing to say, given he used to not be, and if Ferrer is fatigued, he has a shot to score a top 10 win and get himself to the semis, where Dimitrov, a beatable opponent, is most likely to await. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Tomic in the h2h, but Tomic has had a good season and he seems due to reach a final, though I’m not predicting it, the possibility is there.
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Nishikori just beat Anderson in Memphis, and should do so again, meanwhile, Dimitrov is 0-2 against Ferrer on an outdoor hard court but given the fatigue factor, I have Dimitrov regaining form and reaching the final this week thanks to a lucky draw.
Final: Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Nishikori is 2-0, with both wins coming on hard courts, against Dimitrov, given his solid season, he should win his second ATP title of the year in Acapulco as the top seed.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $2,082,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (8)
The seed cutoff is 20 (David Goffin), as Dubai has a very top heavy field, with 4 of the top 10, and 8 of the top 20 participating.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Vasek Pospisil
Djokovic beat Pospisil in their only meeting, a competitive contest last year in Beijing, and the Australian Open champion should once again advance to round 2 at a tournament he has won four times prior, however the young Canadian has game and this isn’t the easiest of round 1 matchups for the world number 1, Pospisil is 2-2 over his last four, and may be able to at least push the sets deep here.
Simone Bolelli vs. (Q)Lucas Pouille
One of the numerous matchups this week slated between in-form players, Bolelli has two ATP quarterfinals on his resume this year, most recently he reached the quarters in Marseille by upsetting top 10 player Milos Raonic in 3 sets. Pouille has risen to the occasion this year as well, the young Frenchman qualified with a pair of wins, and he was also a semifinalist in Auckland this year. Bolelli should be favored given his experience, and good recent form, but look for Pouille to test him, in a match that could go either way.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Goffin, and most recently crushed him at the Australian Open, in a poor showing for the Belgian. Baghdatis has gotten his 2015 off to a strong start with a challenger final, a a third round showing in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Zagreb. Goffin meanwhile has not played as well this season, compared to last, he hasn’t posted better than a quarterfinal, and he’s just 2-4 over his last six matches, most recently he retired in Marseille against Dominic Thiem. With that in mind, though Goffin is much higher ranked, look for Baghdatis to move to 3-0 in the h2h and notch an upset to reach round 2.
Andreas Seppi vs. Richard Gasquet
Two players who have started the season in good form, Seppi has an ATP final (Zagreb), an ATP semifinal (Doha), and a second week appearance at the Australian Open on his resume thus far, resulting in an overall 11-5 ATP record this year, while Gasquet is 7-2 with a title in Montpellier on his resume. The shotmaking, tactically agile veterans have met five times previously, most recently back in 2012, and Gasquet is 4-1 in those meetings, with his lone loss coming on clay. Gasquet should be favored here but Seppi cannot be counted out, he’s improved his game considerably it seems this season, compared to previous seasons, and this match should at minimum not be a routine affair.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This should be quite a high quality contest, Verdasco, who won the last hard court meeting between these Spaniards in 2012 is a slight favorite. He’s had a somewhat average season thus far with a 6-4 ATP record. Dasco took his talents to the golden swing for a couple of tournaments and is now back on hard courts while GGL has been off to a hot start in 2015 sticking to the hard courts. Garcia-Lopez won Zagreb, and already has 10 wins on the season (contrasted with 4 losses, two of which came at the racquet of top 10 player Stan Wawrinka in competitive contests). I personally have GGL winning this one, his play has been quite impressive thus far, and he is outperforming Verdasco right now.
Djokovic should be able to roll to the semifinals here, after Pospisil, Andrey Golubev or qualifier Fabrice Martin await, and then it should be Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. Lopez has generally lived up to his high ranking thus far this season (6-3 on the year), and he should defeat James Ward and Marsel Ilhan or Alex Zverev, but I give him little chance against Novak who he is 0-5 in his career against. The only time he took a set was in their Dubai 2011 meeting. On an interesting note about Martin-Golubev, Martin broke a seven match losing streak dating back to last season to qualify and he beat Borna Coric notably in those qualies, while Golubev is just 1-5 this season with four straight losses. Perhaps the recent boost to Martin’s confidence will get him through to round 2. Zverev should be the one to face Lopez, as he just beat Ilhan in Marseille qualifying a week prior.
Tomas Berdych, who has been solid this season with two ATP finals (Doha and Rotterdam), and of course that semifinal at the Australian Open on his resume already, opens with Jeremy Chardy, a quarterfinalist in Marseille. Berdych is 2-0 against Chardy, and does what the Frenchman is best at, better than he does, so I have little doubt it will be Berdych, who has made two consecutive finals here into round 2 against the Bolelli/Pouille winner. That should be a quality contest, and if Bolelli his Berdych’s round 2 opponent, the Italian has beaten the Czech twice before (2-3 h2h), so he may be able to do some damage, but once again the confidence pick should be Berdych as a quarterfinalist at least in Dubai.
Look for Berdych to face Sergiy Stakhovsky in that quarterfinal, the Ukrainian is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, he opens with Lukas Rosol, who he just dispatched in Marseille (the Czech is just 1-7 over his last 8 matches dating back to last season), and then will face Denis Istomin or Ernests Gulbis. Both players are in awful form, Istomin is just 2-6 on the year, with three straight losses, while Gulbis is yet to win a match this season (0-4), with no sets won in his previous two losses against Dominic Thiem and Jeremy Chardy. Given Gulbis is the moodier player compared to Istomin, I have Istomin through, and then Stako to take him out comfortably. Stako has just one opening round loss this year, and he made the quarters in Rotterdam and the semis in Marseille consecutively, notably knocking off Stan Wawrinka in Marseille. Stako is 2-2 on a hard court against Istomin, but form favors him strongly. Given Berdych has a higher ranking, more accomplishments, a 3-0 h2h, and a better skillset than Stako, look for a Djokovic vs. Berdych semifinal this week.
Bottom Half:
Since 2009, only Djokovic, and Roger Federer, a six time Dubai champion, and the defending champion, have won the title here in the UAE. Federer will open his quest to repeat as champion against struggling veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who is a shell of his old self. Federer is an incredible 16-0 against the Russian over his career, and Youzhny is just 2-5 over his last seven matches dating back to last year. Federer could be tested a bit more against the Garcia-Lopez/Verdasco winner. If it’s GGL, as I have in my bracket, Federer is 3-0 against him, and should be able to make it 4-0 in reaching the quarterfinals. Federer is 5-0 against Verdasco if that is his opponent, and would make it 6-0.
Look for Seppi/Gasquet in the quarters for Federer, Roberto Bautista Agut is also an option here. RBA opens with Dominic Thiem, who he has already beaten twice this season, including last week in Marseille where he reached the semis. This is a difficult section to predict, RBA is 1-0 against both Seppi and Gasquet, but I feel like both of those players are outperforming the Spaniard right now and thusly I have Gasquet in the quarterfinals of my own bracket, with any of those 3 players having a case to make it that far. Gasquet has never beaten Federer on a hard court (0-7 including a Dubai loss) so Fed should reach the semis. If Seppi is his quarterfinal opponent, that would of course be a reprisal of the Italian’s shocking victory in Melbourne, but even still I would pick Federer to get his revenge and reach the semis.
Andy Murray, a one time finalist in Dubai who has played well thus far this season, opens with Gilles Muller, another in-form unseeded player to watch. Murray is 1-0 against Muller who reached the second week in Melbourne, and has an ATP semi and two ATP quarterfinals already on his resume this year. Murray, the AO finalist, most recently made the quarters in Rotterdam where he was upset by Gilles Simon. After Muller tests Murray, expect him to also take out Joao Sousa, who faces wild card James McGee in the first round. The journeyman McGee is an odd wild card selection, but all the same Murray is 4-0 against Sousa including a win this year at the Australian Open. Sousa has lost three straight matches though he has an ATP semifinal on his resume this year (Montpellier).
Murray could face Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters, after Goffin, it would be Malek Jaziri or Philipp Kohlschreiber for him in round 2. Jaziri tends to peak for these events in the Arab world but after a good showing at the Australian Open he’s in terrible form with three straight losses, most recently in Delray at the hands of Bernard Tomic. Kohlschreiber has lost two straight and is just 2-5 on the season, but even still I favor him over Jaziri. That said Baghdatis is playing much better than Kohli right now and has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts, pointing to the Cypriot to reach the quarters.The aggressive Baghdatis has two previous hard court wins against Murray, who has won their last two hard court meetings for a 2-2 overall hard court h2h, and they almost always tend to play competitive contests, especially on fast surfaces, but Murray is likely to have more left in the tank these days and thus I have him into the semifinals.
The Cypriot appears to be motivated, fitter, and striking the ball much better in 2015, having experienced a bit of a career resurgence as of late when many thought he was near retirement. In my mind he’s the favorite to at minimum reach the quarterfinals, and Murray is beatable, as he’s proven before, so semis are a possible outcome for him this week, which would be remarkable given he entered this top heavy, 500 level event as a wild card.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic has never lost to Berdych on a hard court, in a ton of meetings, including the 2013 Dubai final, and with that in mind, I don’t see any reason to pick against a Djokovic vs. Federer Dubai final this week given prior history and present form.
Federer has won three straight hard court meetings against Murray and he tends to play exceptionally well in Dubai, giving him the slight edge to reach the final this week.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai, and their last Dubai meeting in 3 sets last year, but Djokovic played tremendous in Melbourne, and I still have to pick him on an outdoor hard court almost every time. This matchup could go either way, both players know each other well, and know how to beat the other, so it’s a really difficult prediction all the same, with my gut favoring the world number 1.
Argentina Open presented by Buenos Aires Ciudad
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 23-March 1, 2015
Prize Money: $500,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: Tommy Robredo (18)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Fabio Fognini (28)
For a 250 event, with a pair of 500s also on the calendar the same week, Buenos Aires is actually quite solid, with Nadal headlining and a host of clay courters joining him on the undercard. Everyone in the field this week has taken part in one or more previous Golden Swing events (Quito, Sao Paulo or Rio)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Pablo Andujar vs. Nicolas Almagro
Andujar is a seed, but Almagro is 3-0 in the h2h, including 2-0 on clay. Almagro has gone 2-2 on the Golden swing thus far with both of his losses coming in three setters against Pablo Cuevas. Andujar is 1-2, and isn’t playing that well right now, with that in mind the 2011 BA champ Almagro should advance to round 2 with a win in this all-Spanish encounter.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, a semifinalist in Rio, will face Albert Montanes or a qualifier in round 1. Nadal is 5-0 against Montanes with all meetings coming on clay, and his veteran Spanish counterpart has never taken a set against him. Next for Nadal is likely to be the winner of Federico Delbonis vs. Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci, who just lost to Nadal in Rio, will face Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. The h2h is 1-1 and both players have lost three straight matches, but I give Bellucci, the more skilled player, the slighest of edges in that one. Delbonis has Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, he lost an incredible quarterfinal match against Fabio Fognini in Rio, saving more than a half dozen match points before falling in a third set tiebreak. Before that, Delbonis was struggling, and likewise PCB has been up and down, he beat Carlos Berlocq, before losing to Nadal in Rio. I have Delbonis as a quarterfinalist yet again this week, given the home soil advantage, and then Nadal should take him out to reach the semis. The h2h between Delbonis and Bellucci is 3-2 in favor of Delbonis with all meetings coming on clay, and all of them being close encounters. Nadal is 1-0 against Delbonis with that win coming on clay in 2013.
Rio finalist Fabio Fognini, who found some of his best form in months to reach the final there, notably upsetting Nadal, will open with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Carlos Berlocq. I have Fognini beating Berlocq in round 2, after Berlocq wins the all Argentina round 1 battle. Fognini had started the season just 1-3, but as mentioned he put much more effort into his tennis in Rio, and though unpredictable, has be favored to reach the quarterfinals, though fatigue may factor in.
Jiri Vesely, the 6 seed, has a nice chance at a run this week, he opens with Blaz Rola, who has just two wins on the season (though on of them came in an upset of Leo Mayer last week in Rio), and then would face a qualifier in round 2. Vesely is 0-3 since winning the Auckland title, but he pushed Fognini to 3 sets in Rio, and his other golden swing loss was to Pablo Cuevas, who ended up taking the title in Sao Paulo, both of those losses coming in 3 sets. Vesely, though mentally fragile, is playing better than recent results would suggest, and presuming his fitness is ok, I actually have him winning that rematch with Fognini in the quarters. It was a low quality, and up and down encounter when they played last week in Rio, and by this point, Fognini should be fatigued from all the tennis he’s had to play over the past week and a half, with that in mind, the advantage swings to Vesely to reach the semis. Don’t count a qualifier out here either.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, the 2009 champion, will face Jarkko Nieminen or Renzo Olivo, a wild card, in round 2. The veteran Nieminen isn’t that impressive on clay right now, while Olivo is actually 8-2 over his last 10 matches, a mix of Quito qualies, and the Santo Domingo challenger. With a retirement, and a loss to eventual champ Victor Estrella, the only two losses Olivo has had in weeks, I have him notching an upset on home soil to setup a meeting with Robredo. Olivo shockingly upset Robredo in Bastad last year on clay, and Robredo has been in poor form all season, with just a 1-2 record on the year, with a retirement, and a loss to the much lower ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer in Rio. With that in mind, I’m backing Olivo to reach the quarterfinals with a pair of upsets over ATP veterans, on home soil in BA.
Olivo/Robredo are most likely to meet the Andujar/Almagro winner in the quarters, I presume Almagro will be able to defeat wild card Horacio Zeballos or Albert Ramos in round 2. Ramos should beat Zeballos, he’s 1-2 on the Golden Swing thus far, but Almagro is the most talented player of the bunch and should beat Olivo in the quarters to reach the semis in what would be a good week for him.
Pablo Cuevas opens with Guido Andreozzi or a qualifier, Andreozzi, a wild card, has been plying his trade on hard courts, rather than clay this year, and the qualifier will have a good chance, all the same Cuevas, the Sao Paulo champ, and a quarterfinalist in Rio who pushed Nadal to 3 sets, should have no trouble reaching the quarters given his good form. In another all-Argentine battle, Juan Monaco (2-1 clay court h2h) should have enough ability to take out Maximo Gonzalez, who hasn’t won an ATP main draw match in a while. Monaco, a Rio quarterfinalist should face the top ranked Argentine Leo Mayer in round 2. Mayer retired in his last match and is just 1-2 on the Golden Swing, but I still see him beating the veteran French journeyman Stephane Robert, who hasn’t played on clay since the French Open last year. Monaco and Mayer have never met on clay, but with Monaco in slightly better form, I have Pico into the quarters, and then Cuevas beating him for a spot in the semis. Monaco is 5-0 on clay against Cuevas, but they haven’t played since 2011, and Cuevas has been a far superior player as of late.
The unseeded Nicolas Almagro is also a dark horse, but the home player Olivo could have the most eye catching week in Buenos Aires. As mentioned if the in-form wild card can score upset wins over Nieminen, and Robredo, he would be in the quarters, and should be find a way to beat Almagro or another player, he would find himself in his first ever ATP semifinal this week, which I’m sure the home crowd would appreciate.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Vesely
Cuevas d. Almagro
Even with Nadal not playing top 5 quality tennis right now, I don’t see anyone in the field being able to take him out before the final, meanwhile Cuevas has dominated Almagro as of late, and should also be able to battle his way to the final this week
Final: Nadal d. Cuevas
He didn’t win Rio, but you still have to pick Nadal as the champion for almost every clay court tournament in which he is a participant. The king of clay has struggled thus far this season, but you have to feel failure to reach a final yet this year, will further motivate him to cap off the Golden Swing with good vibes, and an ATP title. Nadal just beat my favored finalist Cuevas last week in Rio in 3 sets, and his level should be good enough to take this 250 title as the top seed.
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Montanes vs. Almagro, Fognini vs. Andujar, Schwartzman vs. Lajovic, Mayer vs. Souza, Ramos vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Nieminen, de Bakker vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Almagro, Fognini vs. Lajovic, Mayer vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nadal vs. Lajovic, Mayer vs. Ferrer Final: Nadal vs. Ferrer Champion: Nadal
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Montanes vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Lorenzi, Schwartzman vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Souza, Haider-Maurer vs. Robredo, Monaco vs. Nieminen, Clezar vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Schwartzman, Mayer vs. Robredo, Monaco vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nadal vs. Vesely, Robredo vs. Ferrer Final: Nadal vs. Robredo Champion: Nadal
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Gonzalez vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Andujar, Schwartzman vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Souza, Ramos vs. Ymer, Giraldo vs. Cecchinato, de Bakker vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Schwartzman, Mayer vs. Ramos, Giraldo vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nadal vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Ferrer Final: Nadal vs. Ferrer Champion: Ferrer
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Gonzalez vs. Almagro, Fognini vs. Lorenzi, Delbonis vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Souza, Ramos vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Nieminen, Clezar vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Almagro, Fognini vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Robredo vs. Ferrer Final: Nadal vs. Ferrer Champion: Ferrer
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Montanes vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Andujar, Schwartzman vs. Klizan, Mayer vs. Souza, Ramos vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Nieminen, de Bakker vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Almagro, Vesely vs. Klizan, Souza vs. Robredo, Giraldo vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nadal vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Ferrer Final: Klizan vs. Ferrer Champion: Klizan
A variety of possible champions this week, but general consensus is on Rafael Nadal or David Ferrer winning the title, with a variety of semifinalists possible
Round 2 Matches: Raonic vs. Bolelli, Kuznetsov vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil, Sousa vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Istomin, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Struff, Mathieu vs. Wawrinka Quarterfinals: Raonic vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Chardy, Struff vs. Wawrinka Semifinals: Raonic vs. Bautista Agut, Simon vs. Wawrinka Final: Raonic vs. Simon Champion: Raonic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Raonic vs. Vanni, Golubev vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil, Thiem vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Coric, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Qualifier, Paire vs. Wawrinka Quarterfinals: Raonic vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Thiem, Simon vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Wawrinka Semifinals: Raonic vs. Bautista Agut, Simon vs. Wawrinka Final: Raonic vs. Wawrinka Champion: Wawrinka
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Raonic vs. Bolelli, Kuznetsov vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil, Thiem vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Coric, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Struff, Paire vs. Wawrinka Quarterfinals: Raonic vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Chardy, Stakhovsky vs. Wawrinka Semifinals: Raonic vs. Bautista Agut, Simon vs. Wawrinka Final: Raonic vs. Simon Champion: Raonic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Raonic vs. Bolelli, Golubev vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil, Thiem vs. Goffin, Simon vs. Istomin, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Qualifier, Paire vs. Wawrinka Quarterfinals: Raonic vs. Monfils, Pospisil vs. Goffin, Simon vs. Gulbis, Qualifier vs. Wawrinka Semifinals: Monfils vs. Goffin, Simon vs. Wawrinka Final: Monfils vs. Simon Champion: Simon
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Raonic vs. Bolelli, Golubev vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil, Thiem vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Istomin, Chardy vs. Gulbis, Stakhovsky vs. Struff, Paire vs. Wawrinka Quarterfinals: Raonic vs. Monfils, Bautista Agut vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Chardy, Stakhovsky vs. Paire Semifinals: Monfils vs. Janowicz, Simon vs. Paire Final: Monfils vs. Simon Champion: Simon
Gilles Simon, or Milos Raonic are picked as champions this week, Gael Monfils is also expected to do well, and opinions are mixed on how Stan Wawrinka will fare after winning Rotterdam.
2015 Delray Beach Open by the Venetian Las Vegas Picks
Steen Kirby’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Anderson vs. Groth, Kudla vs. Mannarino, Brown vs. Qualifier, Sela vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Young, Smyczek vs. Dolgopolov, Troicki vs. Tomic, Sijsling vs. Isner Quarterfinals: Anderson vs. Kudla, Brown vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Smyczek, Troicki vs. Isner Semifinals: Anderson vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Troicki Final: Anderson vs. Troicki Champion: Troicki
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Anderson vs. Lu, Kudla vs. Mannarino, Karlovic vs. Qualifier, Rublev vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Dodig, Smyczek vs. Gabashvili, Troicki vs. Jaziri, Sijsling vs. Isner Quarterfinals: Anderson vs. Kudla, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Dodig vs. Smyczek, Troicki vs. Isner Semifinals: Anderson vs. Karlovic, Smyczek vs. Troicki Final: Karlovic vs. Smyczek Champion: Karlovic
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Anderson vs. Groth, Kudla vs. Mannarino, Brown vs. Krajnovic, Rublev vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Dodig, Smyczek vs. Dolgopolov, Troicki vs. Tomic, Qualifier vs. Isner Quarterfinals: Anderson vs. Mannarino, Brown vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Smyczek, Troicki vs. Isner Semifinals: Anderson vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Troicki Final: Anderson vs. Troicki Champion: Troicki
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Anderson vs. Groth, Lacko vs. Mannarino, Brown vs. Qualifier, Rublev vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Young, Smyczek vs. Dolgopolov, Troicki vs. Tomic, Qualifier vs. Isner Quarterfinals: Anderson vs. Mannarino, Brown vs. Johnson, Young vs. Smyczek, Tomic vs. Isner Semifinals: Anderson vs. Johnson, Young vs. Isner Final: Johnson vs. Isner Champion: Isner
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Anderson vs. Groth, Kudla vs. Mannarino, Karlovic vs. Qualifier, Rublev vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Young, Smyczek vs. Gabashvili, Troicki vs. Tomic, Qualifier vs. Isner Quarterfinals: Anderson vs. Kudla, Karlovic vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Smyczek, Troicki vs. Isner Semifinals: Anderson vs. Johnson, Querrey vs. Isner Final: Anderson vs. Isner Champion: Isner
Troicki or Isner are the favorites seemingly in this very open field, Jeff has believes in American Steve Johnson to reach his maiden ATP final, while Courtney is backing the unseeded Tim Smyczek to do the same.
Courtney wins thanks to having Wawrinka as champ, and Niall did slightly poorer earlier in the tournament, though he also correctly predicted Wawrinka, and credit to both of them for a good showing in the highest point value tournament this week.
Everyone had Nishikori as champion this week and thus the point values were all closely clustered, Chris was most accurate early on though and takes the title.
Sao Paulo 1: Steen (56 points) (+250 points)
2: Chris (54 points) (+150 points)
3: Courtney (50 points) (+90 points)
4: Jeff (28 points) (+90 points)
5: Niall (16 points) (+45 points)
Steen had Pablo Cuevas, the champion, in the final, which was enough to get him the title with this unpredictable tournament.
Stan Wawrinka survived some tough matches, including a three set final against Tomas Berdych, to win his first 500 level title in Rotterdam, which is also his first title at that tournament, and his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had to claw his way back from a set down against Berdych, as he was broken in the opening set, after failing to break Berdych in the previous game. Wawrinka broke Berdych once in the second set, and twice in the third set to win the match, as Berdych served under 40% first serves in set 2. Wawrinka was much stronger on serve throughout the match, which means Berdych had fewer chances to grab leads throughout the match. It went back and forth but the elite Wawrinka’s mental fortitude shown through to topple the defending champion. The final scoreline was 4-6 6-3 6-4.
This week Stan was the man, beating Jesse Huta Galung in 3 sets, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in 3 sets, and then he improved and beat Gilles Muller and MIlos Raonic, a pair of huge servers, in straight sets, with the win against Raonic coming in two tiebreaks. JHG and GGL gave it their best shots as underdogs, and Raonic was again impressive on serve, leaving Wawrinka often flailing on return, but his rallying wasn’t good enough to pull off a sustained victory, as Wawrinka survived trial by fire and never faded this tournament.
Berdych, who continues to make deep runs in tournaments so far this season, came close to defending his title, the Czech beat Tobias Kamke without dropping a set, an in form Andreas Seppi in 3 sets, and Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon in routine straight sets. It was a much easier path for Berdych to the final, but perhaps that didn’t prepare for an opponent of Wawrinka’s caliber, once again, under pressure the top Czech folded. Notably Simon upset Andy Murray in a total beatdown in the quarterfinals.
Dutchman Jean-Julien Rojer won on home soil with his partner Horia Tecau, they beat the lucky loser team of Jamie Murray and John Peers, who are off to a great start with their season, in the doubles final.
Kei Nishikori won his third consecutive title in Memphis, he was the top player throughout the week, though a host of competitors gave their best shot trying to defeat him. The last to try was Kevin Anderson who fell to Nishikori 6-4 6-4 in the final.
Nishikori scored wins over three Americans this week, all in three sets, he beat Ryan Harrison first, then Austin Krajicek, who won his second and third career ATP main draw matches in Memphis (over Mikhail Kukushkin and Ivo Karlovic) as a qualifier, and last but not least over Sam Querrey, who he defeated 7-5 in a third set tiebreak, after Querrey had upset his friend John Isner in the quarters in two tiebreaks.
Kevin Anderson also had to beat some US men to reach the final, the South African number one, who has had a good start to his season, beat Sam Groth in straights, then defeated Steve Johnson in straights, and surprise semifinalist Donald Young in 3 sets, coming back from a set down. It was Young’s best result in months as he upset Bernard Tomic in 3 sets in the quarterfinals.
Young also had great success, all be it without a trophy, in doubles this week, as and his partner Artem Sitak fell to Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez, who won their first doubles title as a pairing, both players are accomplished doubles specialists, and they formed a new partnership this season.
Sao Paulo was the place for unheralded players to have success on tour this week, Pablo Cuevas won his third ATP title over the past two seasons, as the Uruguayan will be at a new career high top 30 ranking when the new ATP rankings are released. Cuevas won a third set tiebreak in the final, defeating qualifier Luca Vanni 6-4 3-6 7-6 for the title.
Vanni was perhaps the biggest story on the ATP tour this week, he had never before won an ATP main draw match at the age of 29. The Italian will also be at a career high ranking, as he has never before been ranked in the top 140. Vanni took over Feliciano Lopez’s spot in the draw, as the Spaniard withdrew before the start of the tournament, he beat fellow qualifier Thiemo de Bakker in 3 sets, and then beat Dusan Lajovic in 2 tiebreaks, and Joao Souza in 3 sets to reach the final.
Cuevas beat Jiri Vesely in 3 sets, in a close match, then Facundo Bagnis via retirement, and Nicolas Almagro in 3 sets to reach the semis, at that stage he beat Santiago Giraldo in straights to reach the final, in a tournament full of grinding, close 2 and 3 set matches.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Paolo Lorenzi and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the doubles final, as doubles specialist pairings had success on the ATP World Tour this week.
2015 ATP Rio and Marseille Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The highest valued clay court event on the Golden Swing, Rio, takes place this week, as it is in its second year of existence as a 500 level event. In France, a very strong 250 in Marseille, part of the European indoor tournaments, takes place, and thirdly ATP World Tour Tennis will continue stateside in the USA in Delray Beach, a 250 outdoor hard court event, as the ATP has a lot of variety this week in terms of players and venues.
ATP Rio
2015 ATP Rio Preview
Rio Open Presented by Claro
ATP World Tour 500*
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
February 16-February 22, 2015
*Denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Tommy Robredo (17)
4: Fabio Fognini (26)
It’ll be the strongest clay court golden swing field, but still in it’s second year Rio only got three top 20 players and two top 10 players for a 500 level event that is more back than front loaded.
First Round matchups to watch:
(1)Rafael Nadal vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci, a Quito semifinalist, comes off a round 1 loss in Sao Paulo, and now will have to face Rafael Nadal, who has never taken a set off of previously (0-3, all losses coming in slams). Nadal is the defending champion who should be happy to return his tennis to clay, the surface where he is the greatest player of all time on. The home crowd should support the Brazilian, at least to some extent, and this match is mainly interesting as it’s a form test for Nadal, Bellucci isn’t the weakest possible R1 opponent, and with Nadal having looked very shaky since he last played clay we will begin to get an idea where Rafa is at, now playing on his best surface. I don’t see a path to victory for Bellucci in this one, but we will see if he can take a set at least.
(6)Pablo Cuevas vs. Nicolas Almagro
Cuevas took the title in Sao Paulo, and will either be fatigued or in excellent form going into this tournament. In that tournament, he beat Almagro in 3 sets, and he’s 3-0 in his career against him. Almagro’s run in SP ended in the quarters but he does seem to be improving, and this a chance for him to have another week of success if he can reverse the result against Cuevas. Given this was a close contest, a fresher Almagro should prevail this time and reach round 2.
Federico Delbonis vs. Diego Schwartzman
Delbonis, 24, has been struggling for a while, as he crashed out in round 1 in Sao Paulo, where he was the defending champion, and he’s slipped down the rankings, while Schwartzman lost to Fabio Fognini in 3 sets, in the second round of SP. The 22 year old seemingly has more promise than Delbonis, and this match is interesting because it’s a match up of two of the promising Argentine dirtballers from a similar generation. Schwartzman should win but it could go either way
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Dusan Lajovic
Klizan and Lajovic have 1-1 clay court h2h, Lajovic has been in good form as of late, he was a consecutive quarterfinalist in Quito and Sao Paulo, while Klizan is 2-2 on clay in 2015, as he’d had an up and down time on the golden swing. This match between two of the few non Spanish Europeans that took part in the Golden Swing should match Klizan’s power against Lajovic’s quarter coverage, and it’s hard to predict but with Lajovic playing well recently and improving, I have the Serbian into round 2 in a small upset of the seeded Klizan.
Unless Nadal is injured or something else strange occurs, he should work his way into form on clay and beat Bellucci, Carlos Berlocq, and Almagro/Cuevas in order to reach the semifinals. Berlocq will need to beat Pablo Carreno Busta to reach round 2, while the Almagro/Cuevas winner will face Albert Montanes or Maximo Gonzalez, and they are both better than those opponents. Almagro shockingly beat Nadal last year on clay, and since then both players have suffered injuries. You never know if lightning could strike twice but the h2h that strongly favors Nadal speaks for itself, as all of these players are simply a step slower and behind Nadal on clay.
Fabio Fognini comes off a round 2 loss in Sao Paulo and will face Jiri Vesely in his opening match in Rio. The Italian continues to struggle and Vesely, who lost to the eventual champion Pablo Cuevas in 3 sets in round 1 of SP, may be able to pull off the upset. I personally have Fognini through and feel he will also defeat Pablo Andujar in round 2 assuming Andujar defeats Paolo Lorenzi. Andujar trails Lorenzi 3-4 in the h2h, all of their meetings have come on clay, and they both come off round 1 losses in SP (to Lajovic and Schwartzman respectively). Fognini is 4-0 on clay against Andujar in his career. Klizan/Lajovic are likely quarterfinal opponents for Fognini (or another player such as Vesely), with Delbonis/Schwartzman the round 2 opponent for Klizan/Lajovic. I have Lajovic over Fognini in the quarterfinals, for the simple reason he’s in better form right now, though they have never met.
David Ferrer, who is known to do well on the Golden Swing, opens with his countryman Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a qualifier, and then should face Thiemo De Bakker, another qualifier, assuming the former top junior Dutchman beats wild card Guilherme Clezar. De Bakker is in great form having previously reached the round of 16 in Sao Paulo as a qualifier, falling to eventual finalist Luca Vanni in 3 sets. He then qualified in Rio with a pair of straight set wins. De Bakker pushed Ferrer to three sets in Doha earlier this season, wilting late, and I’m sure he’d love another chance to notch an upset, but it’s still likely that Ferrer will advance to the quarterfinals no matter whom he plays in round 2. In those quarters, watch out for Santiago Giraldo, who found a bit of form and reached the semis in Sao Paulo last week, which is his best result in a while. Giraldo should defeat slumping vet Juan Monaco, who has lost five straight, and then Marco Cecchinato, a qualifier, or Jarkko Nieminen, to reach the quarterfinals. Ferrer is 3-0 and has never dropped a set against Giraldo, and I don’t expect that to be any different now, so it should be Ferrer as one of the semifinalists in Rio this week.
Tommy Robredo will open with Elias Ymer, the young Swedish wild card, and then has Albert Ramos or Andreas Haider-Maurer on deck. Ramos has a h2h win on clay and he’s more accomplished so it should be Robredo-Ramos round 2, and then Robredo, who lost to Nicolas Almagro in Sao Paulo, into the quarterfinals. Possible opponents or most likely Robredo in the quarters are Leo Mayer, Blaz Rola, Joao Souza or Facundo Arguello. Mayer, a SP quarterfinalist should beat Rola, and Souza, a semifinalist in SP, should beat Arguello. Souza just beat Mayer in 3 sets, but I have a feeling that result was an aberration in Sao Paulo, and the Argentine will defeat the Brazilian this time. Mayer beat Robredo on clay last year (in 3 sets), and I have him in the semifinals in Rio this year by virtue of beating Robredo, who still seems a bit rusty this season, while Mayer is likely improving. It’s not an easy pick but Ferrer vs. Mayer in the semis is my selection.
Dark Horse: Joao Souza
The Brazilian wild card has a chance at the semifinals, qualifier Facundo Arguello is an opponent he should be favored against, and then Mayer, his likely round 2 opponent, he just beat in Sao Paulo. With home fan support he beats Mayer, a win over Robredo is also possible for the semis. Players like Jiri Vesely could also serve as dark horses this week, but I’m sure home fans would love to see the local player have a surprise week.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Lajovic
Ferrer d. Mayer
Nadal comfortably defeated Lajovic last summer at the French Open, and he’s a cut above anyone he may face in the semis this week. Mayer beat Ferrer in 3 sets in the Hamburg final last summer, that said Ferrer is normally the better player on clay and he should also reach the final this week.
Final: Nadal d. Ferrer
Nadal has normally dominated Ferrer in the clay court h2h, right now anything could happen with Nadal, but if he’s been good enough to reach the final, he should be in the form needed to outhit and outsmart Ferrer once again for a consecutive Rio Open title.
Open 13
ATP World Tour 250
Marseille, France
February 16-February 22, 2015
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (6)
2: Stan Wawrinka (8)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
Marseille has an excellent field for a 250, in fact it’s the strongest tournament on the ATP tour this week, all of the seeds are top 30, and two top 10 players are here in action.
Thiem has a prior win (2014 AO in 4 sets) over Sousa, and he trashed a slumping Ernests Gulbis in Rotterdam before falling to Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 2, while Sousa reached the semis in Montpellier, and fell in 3 sets to Gilles Simon in Rotterdam. Thiem’s form is rather hard to predict, but he’s struggled against most quality opponents this year as the win over Gulbis was his first of the season, while Sousa has won 5 matches this season and is at his best indoors. With that in mind, though Thiem has more potential long term, Sousa should score a small upset in this one.
(6)David Goffin vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Goffin has been struggling this season, having failed to come anything close to his form in the second half of 2014. The Belgian fell to Gilles Muller in Rotterdam, while Janowicz was ill and pulled out of the tournament after reaching the Montpellier final. This result will depend a lot on how Janowicz is feeling, but with a week off I would expect him to be somewhat back to normal, and with a prior head to head win last year over the Belgian, in addition to better recent results, Janowicz should get past the seeded Goffin.
Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. (WC)Benoit Paire
Mathieu qualified in Rotterdam and once again suffered a mental lapse that cost him the match against top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov. He fell in 3 sets in that one, as his mental fortitude has always hampered his career results. Paire won the Bergamo challenger indoors last week for his best result in many months on tour. The formerly promising young Frenchman with a gifted backhand will try to outwit the veteran PHM, but I personally feel it will be Mathieu that wins this, with Paire’s fatigue a factor. PHM is the more well rounded competitor, and Paire is as weak as him in the mental department.
Top Half:
Rotterdam semifinalist Milos Raonic opens with Luca Vanni or Simon Bolelli in round 2, almost assuredly Bolelli, given Vanni is in South America on the golden swing and got an SE into this tournament, if he plays it with a difference in surface and while fatigued Raonic just dispatched Bolelli in Rotterdam round 2, and that trend should hold and see Raonic into the quarterfinals against Gael Monfils. Monfils, a Rotterdam quarterfinalist, has a surprisingly terrible record in Marseille (1-6 in his career), even though it’s indoors and on home soil, but with a qualifier and Andrey Kuznetsov or Andrey Golubev standing in his way, he still should reach the quarters before falling to Raonic, who has proven to be too strong as of late for all but the elite players in the game, with his consistent dosage of big serves and powerful forehands that wears players down.
Roberto Bautista Agut will open with Robin Haase or Vasek Pospisil in round 2, most likely Pospisil. RBA beat Vasek twice last season and fell to Monfils in Rotterdam, while Vashy upset Philipp Kohlschreiber before losing to Andy Murray. That should be a high quality contest in round 2 and it could go either way, but I have Bautista Agut through to the quarterfinals as his seed rank would suggest. The section below RBA is stacked with the unpredictable Goffin/Janowicz or Sousa/Thiem, I have Sousa over Thiem, and Janowicz over Goffin, then Janowicz over Sousa, just as what happened in Montpellier a couple of weeks ago. That Montpellier contest went three sets so Sousa reversing the result is quite possible, and any of these four could reach the semis. With RBA having a 1-0 h2h record over Janowicz, with a win last year in Miami, I have the Spaniard into the semis to meet Raonic. This is a difficult section to predict however.
Rotterdam champ Stan Wawrinka, who played well to win his first 500 level title last week, will open with the PHM/Paire winner, PHM could prove trouble if Wawrinka is fatigued, but you can’t exactly trust the Frenchman with a knack for mental collapses against top competition, and with that in mind Wawrinka should still reach the quarterfinals. If his opponent is Paire, he will be playing his best friend in the second round. The section above Wawrinka is also difficult to predict, Sergiy Stakhovsky reached the quarterfinals in Rotterdam, and he opens with the 8 seed Lukas Rosol, Rosol is struggling and he has just a 1-3 h2h against the outspoken Stako, so Stako should get through with the unpredictable but talented JL Struff his matchup in round 2. Struff opens with a qualifier, and he is on a losing streak of four matches currently, but he has had some of his best successes as a pro indoors and he is 4-0 against Stakhovsky in the h2h. Both these players are hard to predict but I have Wawrinka beating Struff for a spot in the semifinals in my own bracket.
Defending champ Ernests Gulbis is in terrible form, as he has been for months, he’s seeded third, but I have Jeremy Chardy beating a qualifier, and then dispatching the Latvian number one to reach the quarterfinals. Chardy isn’t in great form and the h2h is 3-1 Gulbis but Gulbis has lost five straight dating back to last season and he’s not even playing top 70 level right now regardless of his ranking. Gilles Simon, a Rotterdam semifinalist, is the main beneficiary of this weakest quarter of the draw, The 5 seed has a qualifier, and then Borna Coric/Denis Istomin standing in his way before the quarterfinals. None of those opponents should prove to be an issue, and Simon should defeat Chardy as well (he did so in Rotterdam R2 just last week) to get into the semifinals. Simon was the champion in Marseille in 2007.
The French veteran isn’t the only possible dark horse this week (non seeds Thiem/Sousa/Janowicz could all perhaps reach the semis or better), but he presents the most intriguing possibility of a run. The talent is still there and he plays his best indoors these days, but his results as usual are going to depend on his mental fortitude. PHM is a player who would have been top 5 and perhaps reached a slam final or more with the right sports psychologist, but rather he’s had a second tier career, and flashes of his ability are still possible in weeks like this, with the seeded player Wawrinka likely to be fatigued and perhaps less focused on the 250 level event this week. Beating Wawrinka would be a monumental upset, but if he does there is no one but Gilles Simon that would truly stand in PHM’s way before the semifinals, and Simon is beatable. It’s not likely but Mathieu is a possible finalist this week.
Predictions Semis: Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Simon d. Wawrinka
Raonic beat RBA at the end of last season and he’s been trustworthy and consistent when it comes to beating non elite players, he has to be the favorite for the title this week coming off the semis in Rotterdam given this is another indoor hard court tournament. Simon is actually 2-1 on hard courts against Wawrinka and beat him last season in a strange three set contest, with that factored in with the fatigue considerations, Simon should be the favorite to reach the final this week.
Final: Raonic d. Simon
Milos beat Gilles twice last year, and given the surface and recent results, Raonic should be crowned champion in Marseille.
Tennis Atlantic 