2016 Australian Open Women’s Preview Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
The first grand slam of the 2016 is upon us and it promises to be a cracker. The tour is wide open with potential winners, so let’s get down to it.
The Australian Open has been staged in seven cities throughout Australia and New Zealand since its launch in 1905. It moved to its present home named Melbourne Park in 1988, with the tournament also switching from a grass to hardcourt surface.
Defending champion Serena Williams has the Open Era record with six singles titles. Just two behind her with four victories are Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf and Monica Seles.
The Australian Open
Tier: Grand Slam
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Prize money: $ 40,000,000
Date: January 18th- January 31st
Top eight seeds (Ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Simona Halep (2)
3. Garbine Muguruza (3)
4. Agnieszka Radwanska (4)
5. Maria Sharapova (5)
6. Petra Kvitova (6)
7. Angelique Kerber (7)
8. Venus Williams (10)
Lucie Safarova (injury) and Flavia Pennetta (retired) are absent from the tournament.
First round matches to watch
Camila Giorgi, Fed Cup
(1) Serena Williams vs Camila Giorgi
The world number one begins her title defence with a tough round one clash with the unpredictable yet dangerous Giorgi.
There are few players that can match Serena’s power on the court, Giorgi is one of them. The Italian is a big hitter and on her day can blast almost anyone off the court. The top seed is still a massive favourite for this match and the tournament as a whole, but if Giorgi turns up she could catch Serena off guard.
The American has not had much in terms of warm up for the first grand slam of the year, and one thing is for sure- she will not get much rhythm from the Italian.
(28) Kristina Mladenovic vs Dominika Cibulkova
There are not many potential upset matches in the opening round when it concerns the top seeds, but there is a nice match to look out for involving Mladenovic and Cibulkova.
The talented Frenchwoman is 0/2 in 2016 after back to back defeats to compatriots- she will be happy to see a Slovakian on the other side of the net. Cibulkova on the other hand has started the season well and is a former finalist at the Australian Open.
The Slovakian leads 5-0 in the head to head which is rather surprising. This one should be a lot closer than their previous meetings and It is possible that the seeded player could make an early exit.
(14) Belinda Bencic vs Alison Riske
Alison Riske (Photo: @Tennis_Shots)
60 places separate these two so if the American was to win this match it would be considered quite an upset.
In the WTA, anything is possible. Bencic is a much improved player since their last and only meeting in 2014 where Riske won in straight sets. However the Swiss lady has not looked at he best in the warm up events and there is a lingering chance of an upset.
That would require the world number 74 to bring her best tennis to the court, but big matches can often bring out the best in a lot of players. Bencic is the likely winner but it could be a close match.#
(17) Sara Errani vs Margarita Gasparyan
Errani is a very consistent retriever and a former grand slam finalist, however her gamestyle lets you play. It will be a good chance for the young Gasparyan to show her talents even if she does end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
The Italian is not as versed on hard courts as she is on clay, but she is not a player you can ever sleep on. The Russian will have to be game if she is to win the match, but it is winnable for her and a chance to claim a good scalp and make a good run.
Draw Analysis
Serena’s Quarter:
The world number one has been dealt with a fairly tough draw in her path towards the title. Giorgi is not the type of player you want to play first that’s for sure. From there it get’s a little more predictable with Anna Schmiedlova the projected round three opponent for the world number one. Schmiedlova is a solid player, particularly on clay, but unless Serena has a nightmare then the Slovakian will likely be brushed aside. The fourth round may see her face good friend Caroline Wozniacki. The draw to the round of 16 has been kind to the Dane and she will be majorly disappointed if she does not make it this far. Given the 10-1 head to head it is difficult to see Serena not making it through this match and through this section. Unless he has a real off day somewhere there is not a player after round one that could realistically match the power of the top seed.
It is not a familiar sight seeing Sharapova next to the number five, but Radwanska’s good form has knocked the Russian from the fourth seeding. Her reward?- Drawn in a quarter with the woman she has not beaten in over a decade. Her path to the potential clash with Serena is not an easy one either. Nao Hibino should be a comfortable opener, as should round two, but the third round potentially against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a tricky one. It does not get any easier with the possibility of Bencic waiting in round four which could be a classic match. But Riske followed by possibly Heather Watson then Svetlana Kuznetsova is not exactly a good draw either. Bencic vs Sharapova is the safe bet and the Russian making it to the quarter finals is safer still, but there are banana skins.
If Radwanska had not made the Shenzhen open final then she would have been drawn in Serena’s quarter. With her victory in the Chinese event, the Pole has taken the fourth seed and has been drawn with a potentially injured Kvitova instead. Radwanska will play America’s Christina McHale in the opening round- not the easiest of draws but one she will be expected to win. That could lead to quite the round two clash against a rejuvenated Eugenie Bouchard who is looking more like her 2014 self in the early parts of the season. Sam Stosur is projected in round three but the Aussie has had issues playing in front of a home crowd. The round of 16 will likely feature either Roberta Vinci or an in form Sloane Stephens. Either one is a huge test for whoever they play and could upset the number four seed. Vinci of course is now famous for denying Serena a calendar year grand slam at the US Open.
Kvitova was forced to withdraw early in Shenzhen, then did not compete at all in her Sydney title defence. It leaves you wondering whether she is 100% ready for the Australian Open. The Czech is unpreditable at the best of times and if bad Petra shows up then she could be heading for an early exit. Round two is where the first test will likely come against Australia’s Daria Gavrilova. She is a rising talent in the WTA and will be pumped up to play in front of the home crowd. She is coming off victory with Nick Kyrgios at the Homan Cup. Round three will not get any easier with either Mladenovic or Cibulkova likely opponents. Carla Suarez Navarro might be the biggest beneficiary if Kvitova is not up to standard. The Spaniard has a fairly comfortable ride to the third round where she will face Andrea Petkovic. She could be the one that emerges to face Radwanska in the quarter finals.
After an impressive 2015 there is a lot of hype and expectation surrounding Muguruza, and this is a tournament you would expect her to do well in. She has had good results in Melbourne before and the courts seem to fit her game nicely. The opening two rounds seem fairly simple for the third seed, but it is in the round of 32 where things could get messy. Caroline Garcia is the projected seed, the talent Frenchwoman is unpredictable but she has a big game and matches up well with the Spaniard. But if she manages to get past the 32nd seed then she will meet a resurgent Victoria Azarenka who is fresh off winning the Brisbane title. This colossal round four match will could decide the finalist so keep an eye out for this one. The former two time champion must first make her way through a difficult third round against Elina Svitolina, but the Belarusian should match up well with the 20 year old.
Kerber could not translate her Premier level success into the grand slams in 2015, but her draw to the quarter finals here looks fairly promising. Barring a huge upset, Irina Begu will be her toughest challenge en route to round four where she projected to face Timea Bacsinszky. The Swiss however has not made the best of starts to the year and could be upset potential in the early rounds. Jelena Jankovic therefore might be the favourite to meet the German in the round of 16. With Muguruza or Azarenka likely for the quarter finals however, it is hard seeing either player progressing any further than the last eight.
Halep is still searching for her first grand slam title and she will feel that 2016 might just be her year. Her grand slam season opens pretty nicely with a qualifier then either Alize Cornet or Bojana Jovanovski. The third round against Lesia Tsurenko could be tricky but it is a match that Halep should win fairly comfortably. The fourth round is where things get interesting with Madison Keys or Ana Ivanovic likely to await the Romanian. Keys has a potential banana skin round two against Tsvetana Pironkova or Yaroslava Shvedova- both can be dangerous on their day. Ivanovic’s path to the third round is a little easier but nothing she should take for granted. Jarmila Wolfe could pose a test in front of her home crowd in round two. Halep is likely to make it out of this section but Keys and Ivanovic are more than capable of causing an upset.
Venus Williams’ resurgence was one of the many stories that gripped us in 2015. The 35 looks like a genuine contender for the big events again, even if she did lose her only match of the season thus far. Joanna Konta was another player who made headlines in 2015 but has made a poor start to 2016. The Brit is capable of an upset if she can perform to her summer 2015 level, but Venus likely prevails. In fact it is a fairly packed section with the ever dangerous Sabine Lisicki projected for round three. The German however is never a safe bet and could be dumped out early be Petra Cetkovska, Bethanie Mattek-Sands or Denisa Allertova. Karolina Pliskova was another name who played well but failed to make a deep run at a grand slam in 2015. However this could be the time she can finally make in roads at grand slam level. The Czech should make it to Ekaterina Makarova in round three at the very least. The winner likely plays Venus in round four- what a match that could be. Halep is the favourite to make it out of this quarter, but as you see there are many players who could trip her up.
If Azarenka is truly back, then she will likely make the final here. The Belarusian love these courts as evident with her two victories here. Serena will win the other semi final.
Tennis is a game of numbers, and it’s the digits that tell the story yet again. Serena Williams’ 17th career victory over Maria Sharapova captured her 19th Grand Slam title, moving the American within 3 of Steffi Graf’s record of 22 major victories.
The world number one defeated Sharapova 6-3,7-6 to claim her sixth Australian title of her illustrious career and 19th major, which now separates her from Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova who have 18 each.
Serena was the favourite heading into the match, and with good reason. The American hadn’t lost to her final opponent in 15 matches. Maria’s last victory over Serena came in 2004 in the WTA Championships that year. Since then, the Russian has barely been able to win a set, never mind a match against her long-time rival. Despite the lop-sided head to head, there was a slight glimmer of hope for Sharapova as Williams appeared to be carrying a virus. Serena apparently only practiced for five minutes a day before the final, and was said to have a nasty cough heading in to the final.
It didn’t take long for the world number one to stamp her authority on the match, however. Serena broke in the very first game, giving her the perfect nerve settler. The match stayed with serve until a rain delay at *3-2 30-30 forced the roof on Rod Laver arena to be closed. During the interruption, Williams took it upon herself to leave the court, presumably because of the illness.
Despite being pictured coughing in the tunnel, Serena came out and won the first five points after the delay extending her lead to 5-2, and giving herself a chance to serve out the first set. Sharapova is known for her determination and her competitive spirit and she showed exactly why that is. The world number two broke straight back giving herself a fighting chance of rescuing the opening set. Unfortunately for the Russian, it turned out to be all for nothing. Serena re-asserted control by breaking Sharapova to love; 1-0 to the top seed.
Williams continued to look dominant as she soon raced to a game lead, and two break point opportunities at the start of the second set. Most players facing Serena would fold in this situation, but the world number two isn’t just another player. The fighting spirit that has seen Sharapova win five grand slam titles was on display for everyone to see as she saved the break points and won the game.
The 27 year old had played her way into the match, and despite facing two more break points, and a match point on her own serve, Sharapova salvaged a second set tie break.
Possessing one of the best serves in the whole of tennis, and experience that most dream of, Serena was no doubt the favourite in the tiebreak. She gave the mini-break to Sharapova in the first point of the breaker, but it was soon overturned by the world number one as she raced into a 4-1 lead. The second seed kept in touch by holding on to her serve in the next two points, and she was rewarded by getting the mini-break back at 5-3. Unfortunately for Sharapova her efforts were futile as Serena re-established her advantage in the next point to set up 2 match points. Maria saved the first with a big forehand down the line, leaving Serena to settle it on her own serve. The world number one’s cough soon turned into a hiccup as an apparent ace was called a let by the umpire. But the 33 year old re-grouped to fire down an ace that replicated the ruled out one from moments before to close the match out. It was a champion’s way to finish it off, from perhaps the greatest women’s athlete of all time.
Williams stepped up to the podium to collect her trophy to cries of “I love you” from the crowd, in which she responded “I love you back, I really do!” She added: “I have to congratulate Maria, who played a wonderful, wonderful match tonight. She really pushed me tonight. She played so well and gave us a great final – not only for you guys, but for women’s tennis and all of the sponsors who support our sport and all of us. I’m honoured to play you in the final.”
“Growing up I wasn’t the richest, but I had a rich family in spirit and support, and standing here with 19 championships is something I never thought would happen. I went on the courts with just a ball, a racquet and a hope. That’s all I had. So all you guys who want to do something or be something, just never give up. You never know what can happen or who you can inspire. I’m just so honoured.”
Sharapova was gracious in her runners up speech: “First of all I’ve got to congratulate Serena on creating history and on playing some of her best tennis,” Sharapova said. “It’s an honour playing against her. I haven’t beaten her in a really long time, but I love it every time I step on the court to play her because she’s the best, and as a tennis player you want to play the best, so congratulations on such a great achievement.”
“It’s been a long couple of weeks here for me. I was almost down and out in the second round, and I gave myself a second life in this tournament. It wasn’t enough today, but I love it here. I’ve had some of my best memories on this court and my toughest losses, but that’s life as a tennis player.”
Both players had their struggles on the way to the final, but they ultimately prevailed.
Serena had to come from a set down against Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza in rounds three and four. The two youngsters found themselves up a set, but Serena’s experience and ability to reach another level proved too much. From then on, the world number one didn’t drop a set as she dispatched last year’s runner up, Dominika Cibulkova and American prospect Madison Keys in straight sets on her way to the final.
Maria Sharapova was on the brink of an early exit in round two, but the 27 year old saved match points to defeat Alexandra Panova in three sets. That seemed to light a fire under the world number two, as she went on a tear in the new few rounds. Sharapova dispatched Zarina Diyas, Shuai Peng, Eugenie Bouchard and fellow Russian Ekaterina Makarova in straight sets before eventually losing out to Serena in the final.
It is a wonder whether Sharapova will ever defeat Williams again. When the Russian first burst onto the scene in 2004, she dispatched Serena with relative ease in the Wimbledon final. But since then, she has only defeated the world number one once, and even that was in the same year. Is it mental, is it technical, or is it a mixture of both? Either way, since 2004 Williams has dominated Sharapova in nearly all of their matches, and it’s hard to see that changing. But if Tomas Berdych can beat Rafael Nadal, surely Maria can beat Serena, no?
The legacy of the world number one just continues to grow by the year, and despite being at the ripe age of 33, Serena is still the woman to beat on the WTA tour. Williams has a presence on court that isn’t replicated by anyone else, and with the amount of time off she’s had during her career, I can safely say she will still be around competing for Grand Slams for years to come.
It has been a memorable grand slam, concluded with a great match between the two best players in the women’s game. The collapse of the seeded players in round one, the dream run of Madison Keys and Serena capturing her 19th grand slam title only scratches the surface of what happened in the past fortnight. As usual, the Australian Open didn’t disappoint and the best in women’s tennis will be back next year.
Be sure to catch all the WTA action on Tennis Atlantic throughout the season.
2015 Australian Open Week 2 Women’s Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
It has flown by quicker than a jet fighter, but we are already half way through the first grand slam of the year. The main talking point was the early demise of seeded players in the first round. Lucie Safarova, Angelique Kerber, Jelena Jankovic, Carla Suarez Navarro, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Sabine Lisicki, Flavia Pennetta, Andrea Petkovic, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and most shockingly Ana Ivanovic bowed out in the opening round in Melbourne. I suppose ranking doesn’t matter In the WTA.
We have seen a lot of shocks, thrilling matches and drama in the first week, so let’s look back on the action and see is on the horizon for the second week of the Australian Open starting with the bottom half.
It’s been a mixed bag so far from the number two seed. Sharapova cruised through her first round match against Petra Martic, before almost stumbling out to Alexandra Panova. The Russian star had to save 2 match points before overcoming the world 150.
Shaui Peng has made it to the round of 16 without dropping a set thus far, dispatching of Tatjana Maria, Magdalena Rybarikova, and Safarova conqueror, Yaroslava Shvedova. The Chinese number one reached the US Open semi finals last year, and has continued her great grand slam form thus far at the Australian Open.
That said, I don’t feel Peng has the game to beat Maria Sharapova in a grand slam. The match will be on the world number two’s racket, and will come down to how well she plays. I can only see Peng winning of Sharapova has a stinker, and even then it’s not certain with the fighting spirit of the 5 time grand slam champion.
(7)Eugenie Bouchard vs. Irina-Camelia Begu
The grand slam gods keep smiling down on Bouchard, who found herself the only seed left in this section after the opening round. The Canadian hasn’t let the seed collapse affect her game however, as she has been flawless in the opening three rounds. Straight set wins over Ana-Lena Friedslam, Kiki Bertens and Caroline Garcia have allowed the 20 year old to advance to the fourth round.
Begu is the woman who dispatched of ninth seed, Angelique Kerber in the first round and she hasn’t slowed down since. The Romanian hasn’t dropped a set since she upset the German. Begu defeated Katerina Siniakova, and Carina Witthoeft in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively.
It will be Bouchard’s biggest test to date, but with the Canadian’s tendancy to bring her best to the big events, I believe Bouchard should advance to the quarter finals. Begu will offer a big challenge and could upset the 7th seed, but the safe bet is on Bouchard.
Number three seed, Simona Halep has looked good thus far as she continues on her quest for her maiden grand slam title. The Romanian didn’t drop a set as she dispatched Karin Knapp, Jarmila Gajdosova and Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the opening three rounds.
Yanina Wickmayer has claimed the scalps of two seeded players on her way to her 2nd round 4 appearance at Melbourne. The Belgian dispatched (28) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and (14) Sara Errani in three sets. In between those victories she defeated Lara Arrubarrena in three sets, so she has gotten used to going the distance.
If Halep is serious about winning her first grand slam here, she should dispatch Wickmayer with little trouble. The way things have been going however, we may see yet another upset down under. If I was to predict, I would say Halep in two sets though.
(10)Ekaterina Makarova vs. Julia Goerges
The tenth seed Ekaterina Makarova has been flawless in her opening three matches, winning all of them in straight sets. An-Sophie Mestach was the first victim of the Russian, followed by Roberta Vinci. Then came the much anticipated clash with an in form Karolina Pliskova, which Makarova made look easy, breaking the big serving Czech three times.
The biggest beneficiary of Ana Ivanovic’s exit has been Julia Goerges. The big serving German took advantage of the fifth seed’s exit to make her maiden grand slam fourth round appearance. Goerges took apart youngster Belina Bencic, Klara Koukalova and qualifier Lucie Hradecka on her way to this stage.
Makarova is another one of those players who brings her best to the slams, and this one has been no different thus far. Goerges has performed well in her best slam to date, but I feel this will be in the end of the road for her. Makarova in 2 sets is my prediction.
The world number one hasn’t been as destructive as she has been in the past, but she’s managed to get it done in her first three matches, all with a bagel. Williams dispatched of Alison Van Uytvanck, and Vera Zvonareva in straight sets before coming from a set down to beat young star Elina Svitolina.
In round four she’ll face another young star in Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard has opened her own bakery this year, handing out a bagel in all but one of her matches in 2015. Muguruza defeated Marina Erakovic in straight sets before getting taken all the way by Daniela Hantuchova and the inform Timea Bacsinszky.
This is arguably the most interesting round four match as Muguruza handed Williams her biggest grand slam loss for over a decade last year. Serena will be motivated and looking for revenge, but Garbine has been playing well thus far despite her lapses in concentration. She can’t afford that against Serena, so I expect a tight battle no matter which way it goes.
(11)Dominika Cibulkova vs. Victoria Azarenka
Last year’s finalist didn’t build on her performance last year, but Cibulkova has returned to form in time to try defend her points from 2014. The Slovakian has only dropped one set on her way to the fourth round and that was her opening set of the tournament against Kirsten Flipkens. Since then, Cibulkova has defeated Tsvetana Pironkova and Alize Cornet.
Victoria Azarenka emerged the favourite to make the quarter final after her straight sets win over Caroline Wozniacki in round two. The former two time champion is looking to kick start her 2015 season after struggling last season, and she’s doing it the right way thus far. No sets dropped in her wins over Sloane Stephens, Caroline Wozniacki, and Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova has shown the Belarusian to be in good form.
Interesting match with potential to go either way. A lot will depend on the form of Cibulkova because she has proven to give anyone a test when playing well. However, Azarenka is always at her best in Melbourne and is in good form, so I feel Vika should make the Quarter Finals.
Madison Keys vs. Madison Brengle
Big hitting American, Madison Keys shocked the tennis world with her straight sets victory over Petra Kvitova in the third round. Before that, she upset the home crowd by beating Australian Casey Dellacqua in three sets in round two and straight setting Lesia Tsurenko in round one.
The other Madison (Brengle) has had an upset of her own as she beat Andrea Petkovic in three sets. The American hasn’t dropped a set since that upset. Brengle defeated countrywomen Irina Falconi and Coco Vandeweghe on her way to the last 16.
The battle of the Madisons is very hard to predict. Keys has the bigger game and usually I would expect her to blast Brengle off the court. The question is how will Keys handle the pressure of being the favourite in the 2nd week of a slam? Any lapses in concentration and Brengle will be waiting to pounce, so interesting to see who makes their maiden grand slam quarter final.
The Pole has been in ominous form, only dropping 9 games en route to the fourth round. Radwanska dropped only three games against Kurumi Nara, one against Johanna Larsson and five against Vavara Lepchenko. In each one of her matches, the sixth seed has delivered a bagel.
Venus Williams was a potential dark horse to win the tournament coming off her Auckland triumph. The 34 year old has reached the last 16 for the first time since 2011, so maybe she’s having one last hurrah. It hasn’t been all easy for Venus however, she was tested my Camila Giorgi in the third round who failed to serve out the match, and that was after straight set wins Maria Theresa Torro-Flo and Lauren Davis.
Both players will be facing their biggest test in the fourth round, and will feel they have a golden opportunity to make the semi finals with Kvitova’s surprise exit. I picked Venus to win this encounter before the tournament, but with Radwanska’s form so far I am now siding towards the Pole. It will be tight, and most likely go the distance no matter which player ends up winning.
Quarters:
Sharapova d. Bouchard in 3 Halep d. Makarova in 3 Muguruza d. Azarenka in 3 Radwanska d. Keys in 2
I am sticking to my original prediction and saying that Sharapova defeats Bouchard in to set up a semi final showdown with Simona Halep. The world number two I feel is too experienced for Bouchard at this stage and I expect something akin to their Roland Garros battle last year.
Makarova is a great grand slam player, but Halep is the better overall player at the moment. The Russian will no doubt test the number three seed and may even get the win, but it’s hard not to back Halep in her undefeated form this year.
Our readers might have gathered I have a lot of faith in Muguruza fulfilling her potential. I am really feeling a big run from her here, especially given how the draw has really opened up for the Spaniard. Azarenka has looked very good thus far, but I still don’t think she’s the Azarenka of old yet, so I will go with my heart and say Muguruza in 3 sets.
Like I mentioned, I am now siding towards Radwanska in her fourth round match against Venus. The Pole is in good form, and she’ll have a deep run here. Keys will blast Brengle off the court, but Radwanska is a few levels above her at the moment. The 6th seed will be too crafty and experienced for the youngster in a straight sets win.
Halep d. Sharapova in 3 Radwanska d. Muguruza in 3
I am will also stick to my guns and say Halep narrowly defeats Sharapova in the semi final. The head to head is massively in favour of the Russian, but I just feel it’s Halep’s time to win her maiden slam. Sharapova puts up a great fight as usual, but ultimately ends up falling in a three set thriller.
Radwanska will make her second grand slam final appearance after defeating a tired Muguruza in the semi finals. The Spaniard may come out all guns blazing, but she is not quite ready for a huge breakthrough yet, so physical and mental fatigue will catch up with her. Radwanska fights back from a set down to defeat Muguruza in three.
Final: Halep d. Radwanska in 2
Like I said, I just feel it is Halep’s time to win a grand slam, and with the exit of Kvitova and potentially Serena Williams, it may have just opened up for her perfectly. Radwanska would have made a tremendous effort to get this far, but I don’t see the Pole going all the way. The Pole leads the head to head, but Halep won comfortably in their last meeting. I expect a tight 2 set victory for Halep in the final, thus claiming her maiden slam title.
2015 Australian Open Week 2 Men’s Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
It’s been an exciting week at the Aussie Open on the men’s side. Many of the names we expected to see in the second week like Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka are still very much in it to win it, while Roger Federer is the biggest name to already have packed his bags in Melbourne. The round of 16 onward will feature competition between the top tier players and a group of rising challengers looking to topple them. Here is a look at the round of 16 matchups which will begin tonight if you’re in the USA.
Novak has had little in the way of slip ups through his first week of matches, cruising past Aljaz Bedene, Andrey Kuznetsov and Fernando Verdasco without dropping a set. Verdasco brought some of his best tennis to the table at times in their third round encounter but even still it wasn’t consistent enough to seriously threaten the world number one.
Muller continues his fantastic comeback results, as he is one of the great storylines of the AO this year. The big serving Luxembourger has had his serve and volley game clicking all week. He beat Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets, dominated proceedings against the seeded Roberto Bautista Agut and beat him in four sets, then kept a steady hand against fellow big server John Isner and took him out in straights, as a frustrated Isner could barely get a racquet on Muller’s serve at times.
The pair have never met before, though both are veteran players, and trouble could lurk for Novak given he can struggle against big servers. Muller’s game is rather limited but in order to beat him, Novak will need to keep his focus the entire match, as a momentary slip up for a break of serve, or in a tiebreak could spell ruin for him. Novak had trouble with Verdasco’s serve when he was pumping it in at upwards of 130 MPH, and Muller is going to bring the hammer here, but I still think the world number one will find a way to win, perhaps dropping his first set of the tournament in this one.
(8)Milos Raonic vs. (12)Feliciano Lopez
It should come as no surprise to see Raonic in the second week. The Canadian number one has looked impenetrable on serve in his first trio of matches and has avoided even the slightest bit of pressure. The Canadian number one put a chokehold on Ilya Marchenko, Donald Young, and surprise third round participant Benjamin Becker, never dropping a set, and never giving up more than three points to his opponent in any of the three tiebreak sets he has played this week. The revitalized veteran Becker took out the seeded Julian Benneteau, and then clawed his way back into the match from two sets against Lleyton Hewitt on home soil to win in five sets, a shocking result that was an enjoyable match to watch.
Lopez, on the other hand, has to have surprised even himself to make the second week. He came into the tournament in an awful slump, and he’s back playing top 15 caliber tennis after the first week. It wasn’t easy for the Spaniard though, he was tested by Denis Kudla who was up 2 sets to 1 at one point, and later had match points late in the fifth set. The clean ball striking of Kudla produced some incredible highlights but Lopez’s lefty serve and touch at the net eventually won the day. He overcame fatigue to win that round 1 match 10-8 in the 5th set. Against Adrian Mannarino in round 2 he was down 2 sets to love but he clawed back and won the third set tiebreak, after which the wheels came off for Mannarino and he would retire midway through the 4th set. He put up his best showing of the week against Jerzy Janowicz in round 3. The Pole came into the match in good form but Lopez slammed the door on him, winning in three sets with a pair of tiebreak wins, as he had that little bit of edge to put him through. Janowicz had reached the third round by taking out Gael Monfils in five sets, as the acrobatic Frenchman played two entertaining five set matches this week, coming back from 2 sets and a break down against Lucas Pouille, his countryman, and then falling to Janowicz.
Lopez beat Raonic last year in Canada on hard courts, and he’ll at least have a chance in this one after how well he played against Janowicz, but I personally don’t see how Raonic will lose this one with how well he’s been playing. His serve is like Thor’s hammer at the moment and Lopez is going to face more pressure on his. It should be a close match but assuming Raonic takes advantage of the opportunities that arise, he should pull through.
Wawrinka remains one of the favorites to take the title, yet again, this year. He controlled proceedings against Marsel Ilhan and Marius Copil through the first two rounds, not dropping a set, then fought off a good effort from fleet footed veteran Jarkko Nieminen without dropping a set. He hasn’t been fully perfect, but like Djokovic, that hasn’t been necessary for him. Wawrinka hasn’t faced anyone that has put serious pressure on him, and he’s been able to play matches at a lower intensity than his peak so he’s rested going into the business end of the tournament.
Garcia-Lopez took out Peter Gojowczyk in a fourth set retirement, then didn’t drop a set against Alejandro Gonzalez (who vanquished Fabio Fognini in round 1), and Vasek Pospisil, who was carrying an injury into the match. This was always going to be an open section, and GGL was the one who took advantage, even though he entered the tournament in pedestrian form. This is the second time in his career he’s reached the second week of a Slam.
Wawrinka was upset by GGL at the French Open last year, and this is chance for revenge. Given this is the AO on hard courts, I expect Wawrinka to dominate and win this match comfortably. GGL is a talented shotmaker but I don’t see him having the consistency and the stamina to keep up with Wawrinka here, the Swiss doesn’t appear to be messing around right now.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. (9)David Ferrer
Nishikori faced quality opposition in the first week, and pulled through against them, as he continued to play like a top 10 player. The Japanese number one took out Nicolas Almagro in straights, Ivan Dodig in four sets, and Steve Johnson in four sets to solidify himself as one of the last 16 men in the tournament. Dodig and Johnson raised their levels of play for a set or so, but simply couldn’t maintain against Nishikori, who was always able to refocus and start firing his shots on all cylinders again. Credit goes to Stevie J for reaching the third round, as he took out Kyle Edmund and Santiago Giraldo.
Ferrer has had momentary lapses in all of his matches so far, but long term he sorted himself out and got through in four sets. He beat Thomaz Bellucci, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Gilles Simon in this fashion. He dropped the first set against both Bellucci and Stakhovsky, and the third set, from 2 sets to love up, against Simon, but none of the challengers could maintain their level against Ferrer’s tenacity.
Nishikori won this top tier matchup four times last year, as I discussed in my week 1 preview, and I expect four or five sets in this meeting. The path to victory for Ferrer here is narrow and will involve simply surviving Nishikori’s shotmaking through the first few frames and getting the match deep into a fourth or fifth set where Ferrer’s steadiness and fitness should help him out. Nishikori on the other hand needs to avoid going for too much, and overhitting against Ferrer. The winner of this match will be the one who takes control of the rhythm and flow and plays at their pace and style.
Berdych is another top player who reached the second week without much of a sweat, under the radar he cruised over Alejandro Falla, Jurgen Melzer, and Viktor Troicki without dropping a set, as his game is clicking and he’s been dominant in the rallies in every match.
Tomic appears to be enjoying himself and staying focused in his home slam. The young Aussie beat Tobias Kamke and Philipp Kohlschreiber in 4 sets, then his big serving countryman Sam Groth in 3 sets to reach week 2. Tomic played poorly against Kamke for a good bit of the match, spewing errors off his racquet, and he was flummoxed by the shots that Kohli was throwing at him at times in that match, but perhaps it bodes well for him that he found a way to win those matches, along with fight off the Groth serve that had vexed both Filip Krajinovic and another young Aussie, Thanasi Kokkinakis, in the first two rounds. Kokkinakis played a thrilling five setter against Ernests Gulbis to reach the second round, He bageled Gulbis in set 2, then got breadsticked himself in set 3, saved match points in set 4, and finally won it 8-6 with a late break in set 5, as his intensity and performance rose to the occasion when the pressure was on.
Berdych is appropriately favored in this match, and he is likely to win it given he’s 7-1 in 2015 and hasn’t dropped a set in any of this wins this season. That said Tomic will have the home support, and he’s doing well when under pressure right now, so he should at least take a set, and perhaps if Berdych has a mental lapse, he can shock the Aussie tennis world and reach the last 8. Berdych in 4 sets is the safe pick though.
Nadal has had a strange odyssey in week 1, in the first and third rounds, he was in control and bossed around both Mikhail Youzhny and Dudi Sela without dropping a set, but in round 2, he was ill, and seemingly dizzy with stomach and fever problems and got pushed to the brink against American journeyman Tim Smyczek, a stalwart of the USTA Pro Circuit. Smyczek looked like a pushover in the first frame, and the match appeared routine but he stormed back to take the second set, and then the third set in a tiebreak to go up two sets to one. Nadal, who was clearly struggling and playing poorly at this point managed to raise his level enough to take the fourth set, and then they held serve in the fifth as Nadal was selectively retrieving balls, while Smyczek was throwing everything he had left in the tank at the Spanish number one. Nadal would eventually win the day 7-5 in the fifth, while Smyczek was complimented for his sportsmanship, allowing Rafa to replay a point due to fan interference 6-5 30-0 up, serving, in the fifth set. Tim is one of the nicest players on tour and he’s fun to watch, so hopefully this great effort, where he truly looked to be enjoying himself on court, bodes well for him having further success in 2015, I’d quite enjoy to see him do well at the ATP level.
Anderson has surprisingly dominated down under, and he’s another one of the big servers through to the second week, he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in 4 sets, Ricardas Berankis in 3 sets, and Richard Gasquet in 3 sets to reach week 2. Gasquet had set points and was up breaks in multiple sets but he wilted under relentless pressure from Anderson.
Nadal should win this, he’s simply the better player, but after the situation against Smyczek there are still serious questions about Rafa’s condition right now. Over time Nadal has played himself into form in matches, but against Anderson he will finally be facing an opponent who should push sets deep, and consistently be able to hold his serve, giving Nadal less margin for error if his form slips and he gets broken on serve. The key for Anderson will be to get off to a fast start, and in a perfect world, get two sets to love up before Nadal can find himself, but it’s a bold guess to say Anderson will do that, so Nadal in 4 sets is the pick, Anderson probably salvages a tiebreak at some point.
Murray is playing his best tennis since his back surgery at the end of 2013. The UK number one rolled over Yuki Bhambri, Marinko Matosevic, and Joao Sousa without dropping a set, as he was simply too strong for players of that caliber. Bhambri and Sousa both pushed him for a set and clearly put in effort but the result was never in doubt.
Dimitrov has faced some headaches in his path the second week, Dustin Brown was no trouble at all in round 1, as he won that contest in straights, but Lukas Lacko pushed him to four sets, and Marcos Baghdatis danced with him for a full five sets in rounds 2 and 3. The match against Lacko was relatively routine except for a long second set tiebreak that Lacko won 12-10 after saving multiple set points, the Slovak would fade thereafter however. Against an aggressive Baghdatis, spirited by his rowdy fans, Dimitrov was looking for answers for a large portion of the match. He dropped both the first and third set against Baghdatis, who was cracking winners and moving up the court on both wings, taking his chances when possible. The former AO finalist showed shades of his former self but he doesn’t have as much stamina and consistency as he used to, and eventually Dimitrov sorted himself out and got through in five sets 6-3 in the fifth as Baghdatis last real chance to win the match was in the fourth set, that he also lost 6-3. This was another classic Baghdatis slam match regardless and was a joy to watch if you like attacking tennis. Dimitrov was pushed on his back foot and forced to moonball at times. It should be noted that Baggy made the third round by upsetting a listless David Goffin in round 2, after winning in 5 sets against Teymuraz Gabashvili.
The match between Murray and Dimitrov is one of my two most anticipated clashes of the fourth round (the other is Ferrer vs. Nishikori). These are two talented and motivated stars who will be dueling just to make the quarterfinals. This should be a physically grueling contest, and with Dimitrov coming off a taxing five setter, while Murray has sprinting all over the court against his first three opponents, the advantage in physicality and stamina goes to Murray, one of the fittest players in the sport. Dimitrov has raw shotmaking ability and he can stretch Murray using angles, bringing him forward and so forth, but I feel like Murray will wear him down and win this in four or five sets, taking advantage of perhaps just a lone break of serve in a set, or a minibreak in a tiebreak to get himself through. The level of these two players is very close, but I’m very encouraged by what I’ve seen from Murray this tournament, and less so by Dimitrov.
Nick Kyrgios vs. Andreas Seppi
Two players that myself, and many others did not expect to be still in it at this stage in the tournament. Kyrgios showed signs of injury in his round one win in five sets over Federico Delbonis, but got progressively better against Ivo Karlovic and Malek Jaziri. Kyrgios went from hunched over and barely holding against Delbonis to ripping serves and smashing forehands against Karlovic and Jaziri. Karlovic who before the match was serving lights out, didn’t play as well as expected and Kyrgios was in control most of the contest. Jaziri was coming off of a four setter with Mikhail Kukushkin and a five setter with Edouard Roger-Vasselin and he didn’t have near the fitness level to compete.
Seppi, one of the stories of the tournament who is off to a roaring start in 2015, having already done better with his results than in all of 2014, won the essential fifth set against Denis Istomin, in a match that was guaranteed to go five like an Italian opera, and then won in 4 sets against Jeremy Chardy. All that was good, but then it went from a good tournament to an amazing one for Seppi, who is perhaps on his way to reclaiming the Italian number one designation from a slumping Fabio Fognini. Seppi shocked Roger Federer 6-4 7-6 4-6 7-6 in what is certain to be one of the biggest upsets of the 2015 season. Federer played very poorly and had limited depth on his shots, he almost appeared limp wristed at times and was simply massaging the ball into play while Seppi was going for the lines, and connecting on his shots, mixing in offense, defense and good old fashioned counterpunching. Most people had Seppi as good as done by the time it went to a fourth set tiebreak, but he hung in it, and hit an incredible, once in a lifetime passing shot past Federer on a match point to minibreak and earn himself the greatest win in his career. Seppi redlining against an inhibited Federer was enjoyable to watch and he’s the most surprising name to have reached the second week.
Kyrgios beat Seppi at the USO last year, but that said, who knows if Kyrgios is fully 100%, though he looks fine at this point, and this is an inspired tenacious Seppi, who is well out playing his 2014 form. A lot of people don’t see this being close, but I feel Seppi actually has a shot if he can deal with Kyrgios serve and make him rally, he’s still the underdog but he’s thrived in that situation with the crowd against him and I’m picking the upset and putting Seppi through to the quarterfinals. The crowd will be loving this match, as Kyrgios is incredibly popular in his home country, while Seppi is a likable player.
Quarters: Djokovic d. Raonic in 4
Wawrinka d. Ferrer in 4
Nadal d. Berdych in 3
Murray d. Seppi in 3
Djokovic could be tested with how well Raonic is playing, but even if it goes five, Novak has the experience and has dealt with a lot more of these massive matches. I’m comfortable at this point going with Wawrinka over Ferrer or Nishikori, as much as I’m tempted to revise my week 1 pick and put Nishikori through, I’m going to stick to my guns and have Ferrer reaching the quarters, either way Stan seems a cut above the pair right now.
My reasoning for Berdych over Nadal in my original predictions was that I wasn’t sure if Nadal was going to be really struggling coming into this, though he was ill against Smyczek, you can’t really classify him as “struggling” right now and given the H2H, even with Berdych looking like a tough customer in the first week, Nadal now has to be the favorite to reach the semis from this section. He’s eliminated enough doubt in my mind to put him that far through at this point.
I would go with Murray over Kyrgios or Seppi, Kyrgios would perhaps be a tougher opponent given it would mean a hostile crowd and a Laver night session, not to mention his aggression and skill set, but Murray is playing really well right now, and I just don’t see him losing to either of those players, especially Seppi. The competition is getting tougher but I don’t see that scaring Murray.
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka in 5
Murray d. Nadal in 4
Given the form of both players, and the result of previous contests, I can almost guarantee that Djokovic vs. Wawrinka will be a Laver night session five setter, and go over four hours. Both players will need to give 110% as neither appears to be giving much away in the first week, they both have their weaknesses and showing no mercy is going to be essential. Novak still seems like the better “finisher” of the two, and that’s why I have him through as much as I want to believe Wawrinka can recapture the magic of last year and win again. This probably ends up 7-5 or 9-7 in the fifth set. For what it’s worth I’d have Djokovic through to the final against any other possible opponent here, and Wawrinka likewise, as they are the two players most likely to actually win the title in my opinion. Unless they wear each other out, the tournament winner should come from the top half of the draw.
I’m comfortable going with Murray over Nadal, or any other possible opponent left, even more so than I was at the start of the tournament. He’s played up to the level I thought would be needed for him to get through to the final, and he avoids Federer now, this is a slightly easier path than I expected and Murray should get himself to another slam final.
Sticking with my original pick, not having Federer in the final means it’s still a valid proposition, and as much as I personally want Murray to win this to silence the critics and prove he’s back, Djokovic or Wawrinka over Murray has to be the pick here. Djokovic on hard court at the AO has generally shown himself to be superior and the only real chance for Murray here is if he plays lights out and Novak is playing on a half full tank going into the match because Wawrinka (or Nishikori/Raonic etc.) has wounded him.
Niall Clarke’s 2015 Australian Open Women’s Week 1 Preview/Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
2015 Australian Open Women’s Preview
We are here at last. The first Grand Slam of the season is finally here with 128 of the best WTA players competing for the right to be known as the 2015 Australian Open Champion.
The Australian Open was launched in 1905, and has been staged in seven cities down under. The event moved to its current location, Melbourne Park, in 1988. That was also the year when the surface changed from grass to hard. The facility features two courts with retractable roofs, making it arguably the best organised Grand Slam out of the four. In 2008, the surface switched from Rebound Ace to Plexicusion and the courts switched from green to blue in order to Increase visibility. The Australian Open is also the most financially lucrative tournament on the calendar, offering the most prize money to the winner.
Serena Williams is the most successful women’s player at the Australian Open in the open era. The current world number one has won five single titles down under. Just behind her with four titles are the likes of Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf and Monica Seles.
2014 saw Li Na win her second grand slam title in Melbourne. The Chinese star overcame Dominika Cibulkova in straight sets 7-6, 6-0 in the final. Li had previously been a finalist in 2013, where she narrowly lost to Victoria Azarenka. Unfortunately the Chinese Star won’t be here to defend her title, as she announced her retirement last year.
Australian Open
Grand Slam
Melbourne, Australia
January 18- February 1, 2015
Prize Money: $15,561,973
Top 8 seeded players (WTA ranking in parentheses)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Maria Sharapova (2)
3. Simona Halep (3)
4. Petra Kvitova (4)
5. Ana Ivanovic (5)
6. Agnieszka Radwanska (6)
7. Eugenie Bouchard (7)
8. Caroline Wozniacki (8)
Only Petra Cetkovska is missing from the players who would be in the main draw. So all the top WTA players will be in action come Monday.
First round matchups to watch:
(12)Flavia Pennetta vs. Camila Giorgi
The clash of the Italians is one of the matches that could see a potential upset in round one. The big hitting Giorgi is always dangerous with her power, but the 23 year old hasn’t started the season in good. Camila was some-what of an error machine in her loss to Kurumi Nara in Hobart, but a match against a seeded player should be enough to motivate Giorgi to play her best here. Flavia Pennetta is coming off a great 2014, which saw her climb to number 12 in the world. However she lost her opening match at Sydney to Tsvetana Pironkova, so there are also question marks over the 32 year olds form. The winner is very unpredictable and the match could go either way, but with the potential upset it will certainly be one to look out for.
Sloane Stephens vs. Victoria Azarenka
You remember the last time these two met in Melbourne, right? If not, I will try my best to refresh your memory. Let’s travel back two years to the Australian Open 2013 semi finals. Stephens was coming off the biggest win of her career when she defeated Serena Williams, whilst Victoria Azarenka was the defending champion and favourite for the title. The Belarusian looked like she was heading to a routine victory over the American, but blew five match points whilst serving for the match. What followed turned out to be one of the most controversial moments in recent tennis history. Azarenka took a medical time out after blowing the match points, and when she returned to court, the Belarusian broke Stephens to win the match. The controversy surrounded the timing of the medical time out, the reasons why Azarenka decided to take it and whether it had an effect on the match. Both players have declined since then and come into the tournament unseeded, but with the 2013 controversy, it is no less interesting.
Timea Bacsinszky vs. (15)Jelena Jankovic
Another match with upset potential. Bacsinszky recently made the final in Shenzhen, beating the world number four, Petra Kvitova in the semi finals. Jankovic started her season in the worst possible way as she lost in straight sets to Ajla Tomljanovic 7-6, 6-0 in Brisbane. Both with completely opposite starts to the season, so you can see why the 15th seed might be in danger of bowing out early here. This is their first meeting so there is no head to head to reference, but this will no doubt be an interesting match to watch.
(8)Caroline Wozniacki vs Taylor Townsend
You would usually look at this match and think that Wozniacki will win, and most of the time you would be right. However, this match is different because Wozniacki isn’t 100 percent fit heading into the tournament. Townsend is 18 years old, and a player to look out for in the future, so this would be a big scalp for her at this point in her career. Wozniacki beat The American in straight sets in Auckland, so it could yet be another comfortable win for the eighth seed. Considering the injury however, Wozniacki could be the biggest casualty in round one.
(16)Lucie Safarova vs Yaroslava Shvedova
16th seed Lucie Safarova has been handed one of the biggest enigmas in the tennis for her opener in Melbourne. Slava Shvedova has produced brilliance, like her golden set at Wimbledon in 2012, and moments of complete madness like when she wasted match points at the US Open that year. Who knows what Shvedova will turn up at the Australian Open, and that is why this is a match to watch. Safarova enjoyed one of her best seasons in 2014, and will look to carry that momentum into this year. Shvedova failed to capitalise on a great run in the summer of 2012, and currently ranks at 63 in the world. They have met once, and it was in that breakthrough year for Shvedova. The Kazakh came through in straight sets on that occasion, but since then Safarova has improved, and Shvedova has declined. A match between two powerful and dangerous players, we should see some heavy hitting from both sides of the court. The big question is which side of Slava will we see?
(20)Sam Stosur vs Monica Niculescu
The home crowd favourite for this tournament will no doubt be Sam Stosur. The Aussie crowd will no doubt be gunning for a deep run from one of their compatriots, but will they get it from the former US Open champion? Stosur has failed to go beyond round four in her home slam. Not a good record considering her achievements in other grand slams. Niculescu however is statistically better in Melbourne than in any other grand slam. She has never made it past the third round, but holds a 7-7 record at the Australian Open, which is better than her negative win loss ratios in the other three major events. With the head to head 4-0 in favour of the Aussie, it looks like Stosur should advance here, but you never know how she will react to the home crowd pressure.
The upcoming Kazakh vs the less known Radwanska is one of the tightest matches in the first round. Diyas has been very steady for the past year, defeating the players she should and making the third round in three of the four grand slams including the Australian Open. Urszula Radwanska is better known for being the little sister of Agnieszka Radwanska, but she was a top 30 player once. Granted that was 2 years a go, but that shows the Pole certainly has something about her. A shoulder injury saw her slide down the rankings, as she struggled to recover, but a solid start to 2015 see’s the 24 year old in good form heading into the first grand slam of the year. These two previously met in Rome last year, and Radwanska was the winner despite her struggles. Will she sable to repeat that in Melbourne?
Serena’s quarter:
Serena Williams comes into every grand slam the bookies favourite, and despite poor Hopman cup form, The Australian Open is no different. The world number one has dominated the tour for some time, but she hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2010. Having said that, she is the most successful player at this tournament since the open era began; winning 5 titles in Melbourne. In round one she faces Belgian, Alison Van Uytvanck. Anything but a dominating Serena Williams victory will be shock. The 5 time champion shouldn’t drop more than 3 or 4 games in her opener, and that’s if she isn’t in good form. Interestingly, Serena could end up facing Vera Zvonareva in the second round, which would be a rematch of their 2010 Wimbledon final. On that day, Williams was the victor in straight sets, and the 18 time grand slam champion leads the head to head 7-3. Zvonareva is way past her peak though and using her Protected Ranking to get into the main draw. No matter who Serena Williams faces in the second round, you would expect her to make the third round at least. She will likely meet Elina Svitolina at the round of 32. You would expect the 20 year old to beat Jana Cepelova, and the winner of Nicole Gibbs/Olivia Rogowska as she is in good form and reached the third round here last year. Serena can be prone to an upset if she is off her game, but I don’t expect that to happen at this stage. They have met once before 3 years ago in the Fed Cup play-offs and Serena defeat the 20 year old in straight sets. I expect Williams will have too much firepower and experience for the world number 26 at this stage. I would be surprised if Williams doesn’t make the second week in Melbourne as there aren’t many challengers in her way in the first three rounds.
The number 15 seed, Jelena Jankovic has a tough opener against Timea Bacsinszky. Like I mentioned in my matches to watch, this has upset potential as the Swiss is in better form than the Serbian at this point. I predict Jankovic to be dumped out in the first round by the Shenzhen finalist in a somewhat messy affair. From there she will face the winner of Kimiko Date-Krumm/Ana Tatishvili in the second round. The Japanese star is now 44 years old, making her the oldest player in the tournament. Tatishvili came through qualifying to main draw and will fancy her chances of making the second round. Either way, I expect Bacsinszky to beat her second round opponent and make the third round. At this stage, her projected opponent is Garbine Muguruza. The 24th seed should dispatch Marina Erakovic in the first round without much trouble, but her second round match could potentially be tricky. The Spaniard will face the winner of Daniela Hantuchova and Saisai Zheng, and if the Slovak gets through her first round match, there could be an upset in round two. I personally don’t see Muguruza having any problems until round three against Bacsinszky, but this is the WTA and you never know what will happen. The third round match between Muguruza and Bacsinszky could end up being a tight encounter, but the Spaniard is overall the better player at the moment so I see her prevailing here and setting up a meeting with Serena Williams in the fourth round.
In the lower section of Serena’s quarter is the number eight seed and good friend of the world number one, Caroline Wozniacki. The US Open finalist is heading into Melbourne with a lot of doubt surrounding her fitness after a niggling wrist injury forced out to retire against Barbora Zahalova-Strycova in Sydney. However, the Dane says she is raring to go in Melbourne, and she must be as she faces Taylor Townsend in round one. Townsend may provide problems, but Wozniacki won their last meeting and has too much experience and tools for her young opponent. She’ll then have a blockbuster round 2 awaiting her, as Wozniacki will face the winner of the highly anticipated Sloane Stephens/Victoria Azarenka match. I expect Vika to come through that match as she always seems to do against Stephens, setting up a great round two with Wozniacki. The winner of this clash comes down to the Danes fitness. If the injury is no longer concerning her, I expect Wozniacki to grind this one out. Azarenka isn’t the player she was currently, and Wozniacki is recaptured some of her best form last year. If the wrist is still a problem, then I expect Vika to advance to the round of 32. With Wozniacki recently saying that it’s fine, then I will say the 8th seed advances to the third round, where I expect her to meet Strycova for the second week in a row. The Czech shouldn’t have too much trouble getting through the first two rounds, but I expect with Wozniacki now fit, her run ends in the third round.
Last years runner-up, Dominika Cibulkova will have a testing round one against Belgian, Kirsten Flipkens. The 11th seed played great tennis at the start of last year but faded in the second half of the season. Flipkens now ranks outside the top 40 after reaching a career high of 13 in 2013; the year in which she also made the Wimbledon semi final. Cibulkova is not in great form, but neither is Flipkens, so I expect The Slovak to make it through. The 2nd round will be tricky for the 11th seed as she’ll either face an in form Heather Watson or Tsvetana Pironkova. Watson might be a little tired after her Hobart heroics, but riding the great wave of form, the Brit will advance to the 2nd round. Cibulkova might be there for the taking, but fatigue might just catch up with Watson, so I predict Cibulkova to advance to the third round, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Watson there instead. I believe, Alize Cornet will await her at this stage. The French woman is seeded 19th for the tournament, and will be expected to get through her first two matches. Cibulkova leads Cornet 3-0 in the head to head, and was a finalist last year, but I don’t trust the Slovak’s form enough to back her here. I will predict Cornet to get her first ever win over Cibulkova and make the 4th round against Wozniacki.
Kvitova’s Quarter:
Wimbledon champion, Petra Kvitova will head into Melbourne off the back of a title winning effort in Sydney, thus giving her a good run of form heading into the first grand slam of the year. The Czech will face qualifier Richel Hogenkamp in the first round in what you would expect to be a dominant victory for Kvitova. Youngsters Donna Vekic and Mona Barthel will play for the right to face Petra in the second round. Barthel is talented, but out of form after coming back from injury, whilst Vekic recently lost in straight sets to Pironkova. I will say Barthel advances because despite injury she is overall the better player at the moment, but I don’t see the German troubling Kvitova much in her current form. There I expect either Madison Keys or Casey Dellacqua to await the number four seed in the third round. I can see these two making it through their first round matches, but the winner of this one is harder to predict. They met in Melbourne 2 years a go, and Keys was the winner that time, so I will predict the American to win yet again in a tighter 3 set match. Keys has a lot of power in her game, but Kvitova is arguably the most powerful player on tour. In this third round clash we will see a lot of amazing winners and a lot of easy errors. I think Petra is just the more powerful of the too and has the big match experience that Keys lacks at this stage of their careers. Kvitova advances to the 2nd week in 3 sets.
13th seed Andrea Petkovic has an interesting first round clash against Hobart finalist Madison Brengle. The German has reached the Quarterfinals here before back in 2011, but was dumped out in round one last year. Brengle comes into the tournament In good form following her Hobart run, but I believe Petkovic will be a little too much for her. The likely 2nd round opponent is Kaia Kanepi. The Estonian should ease past Irina Falconi in round one to set up this intriguing match-up against Petkovic. Kanepi has a 3-0 head to head advantage over the 13th seed and even beat her at the start of the season. I Believe Kanepi will make it to the third round against Coco Vandeweghe. The big serving American should beat a past it Francesca Schiavone, and with Sam Stosur’s home record, I back Coco to make it past the Aussie in round two. Kanepi is overall the more solid, and the more experienced of the two so I expect her to make the second week.
The other projected quarterfinalist from this section is Agnieszka Radwanska. Poland will lay their hopes on the 6th seed to bring a grand slam title to their country. Her first test will be from Japan’s Kurumi Nara. The Japanese can no doubt test Radwanska but I don’t see her beating the world number six. The Pole should sail through the third round where her likely opponent will be Vavara Lepchenko. The 30th seed is one of eight Americans in this quarter, but like most of her compatriots in this section she’ll likely bow out in the first week. Radwanska will be too crafty and too good for the left hander, and should make the second week.
While Radwanska may be the projected Quarterfinalist, many will be expecting Venus Williams to make the last eight in this tournament. The 18th seed arrives in fantastic form after winning Auckland and has more Grand slam winning experience than anyone in her quarter. The 34 year old should walk into the third round without much hassle where I see her facing 12th seed Flavia Pennetta. The Italian has a tough road to this stage with Camila Giorgi in round one and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni her likely second round opponent. Despite the difficult draw, I believe Pennetta is overall the better player, so I expect her to meet Venus in round three. It will be the American’s biggest test so far in the tournament, but the 2003 finalist should prevail if she continues her form from Auckland. That will set up a blockbuster round four match with Agnieszka Radwanska. The Pole will be the favourite as she is overall the better player at this point in time, as indicated by the world rankings. But in the form table, I would give a slight edge to Venus. It will no doubt be one of the matches of the tournament.
Halep’s Quarter:
Halep comes into the first grand slam of the year on back of an illness that kept her out of Sydney. But with that behind her, the number three seed will be looking to show the world she has what it takes to become a grand slam champion. Simona will open the proceedings on Rod Laver against Karin Knapp on day one. It should be a comfortable win for the Romanian, as the Italian doesn’t have the weapons to really test her. Halep should also breeze past her round two opponent to set a round three date with Sabine Lisicki. The inconsistent German will be happy with her draw, and has a great shot at making round three. Kristina Mlandenovic awaits in the first round. It could prove to be difficult for Lisicki, who has shown she is very prone to random losses off of grass, but I expect the 28th seed to find a way to pass her first test in a messy three setter. Bethanie Mattek-Sands should await Sabine in the second round. The American has only just returned from injury and is in the main draw courtesy of the protected ranking system. With Mattek-sands likely rusty and not 100, I expect Lisicki to use her big serve and powerful ground strokes to not let the American find her rhythm, and therefore cement a third round place. Unfortunately for Lisicki her journey should end here at the hands of Simona Halep. The Romanian took Lisicki apart at Wimbledon last year, and we all know how good Sabine is at SW19. This surface should suit the Romanian even more, so unless Lisicki is in red hot form, Halep ill advance to the second week without many problems.
The other half of this section is very much wide open, and we could see a player make their first second week of a grand slam. 14th seed Sara Errani is best suited to clay, and with her game style of keeping the ball in play without much power, the Italian often leaves it in the hands of her opponent. I won’t predict a round one loss to Grace Min, but I do believe the Italian will fall in round two to young German Annika Beck. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will be the favourite to meet Beck in the third round, but her known inconsistency will leave a lot of question marks around her. Despite that, I will predict the Russian to battle her way past Yania Wickmayer in round one and Lara Arruabarrena/Renata Voracova in round two. With the tendency to make errors on key points, and the known steadiness of Annika Beck, I expect Pavlyuchenkova’s run to end in round three. Therefore we get a Shenzhen rematch between Beck and Halep in the fourth round.
The section to decide Halep’s potential quarter finalist should really come down to three players. Number five seed Ana Ivanovic will undoubtedly be the bookies favourite, but there are some very dangerous players in this section. The Serb should see herself easily into round three where I believe she’ll face the winner of Klara Koukalova and Belinda Bencic. I think they will get through Storm Sanders and Julia Goerges in the first round respectively to set up an enticing round two clash. Bencic is a young talent promising to do big things in the future, but right now she is too raw for a deep slam run, so I think that Koukalova’s experience will see her through to the third round. I don’t see the Czech beating Ivanovic in a grand slam, but she is certainly capable of pushing the Serb all the way so don’t be surprised to see a three setter.
The race to face Ivanovic in the fourth round will likely come down to Ekaterina Makarova and Karolina Pliskova. These two big hitters shouldn’t have many problems reaching round three where they will likely face off in a great contest. Makarova always brings her A game to the grand slams, and she showed that in New York last year where she made the semi finals. Pliskova has a huge game and showed how good she can be in her runner-up effort in Sydney last week. With Makarova’s tendency to be at her best in the big events, I will say she squeezes through in three sets. It could go either way though and will undoubtedly be a match to watch.
Given the difference in fortunes in the first week, many people have Maria Sharapova down as the favourite to win the title over Serena Williams. The world number two battled hard in typical fashion to beat Ana Ivanovic in Brisbane and will look to continue that momentum in Melbourne. The first round against qualifier Petra Martic shouldn’t be a problem at all for the Russian, and you would expect the former champion to make a statement in her opening match. The second round will be trickier, but Sorana Cirstea shouldn’t pose too many problems for Sharapova. It’s hard to predict the third round opponent for Maria. It features the interesting Zarina Diyas/Urszula Radwanska clash, and youngster Anna Schmiedlova who upset Venus Williams at Roland Garros last year. I expect the winner of Diyas/Radwanska to have too much for the young Slovak in round two. Regardless of which one it is though, Sharapova should have little trouble dispatching them and will make round four without dropping a set.
Lucie Safarova is the 16th seed and favourite to make round four, but there are lots of interesting obstacles in her way. Firstly, Yaroslava Shvedova in round one, then the winner of Monica Puig/Anastasia Rodionova in round two, then most likely Shuai Peng in round three. If Shvedova brings her A game, Safarova will be in huge trouble. But that is a huge if. I will stay safe and predict a Safarova-Puig round two with Safarova coming through her second round clash fairly comfortably. The Czech may face a big test in round three, but with head to head in favour of the Czech I will back her to beat Peng and make round four to face Maria Sharapova.
The section to decide the other quarter finalist is perhaps the most interesting in the draw. 7th seed Eugenie Bouchard enjoyed some great grand slam results last year, which saw the Canadian finish inside the worlds top 8. With the huge pressure now on her shoulders we will see how Bouchard copes in Melbourne. The seventh seed shouldn’t be troubled until the third round though, where she’ll likely meet experienced Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Russian has a tricky path to the round of 32, with Caroline Garcia her round one opponent and Stephanie Voegele her likely round two opponent. It will be tough for the former US Open champion, but I think she’ll make the third round before eventually losing to Bouchard.
The Canadian’s fourth round opponent will likely be the winner of Angelique Kerber/Carla Suarez Navarro. The German shouldn’t face many problems before round three with Elena Vesnina likely being her biggest test. Navarro shouldn’t have any troubles at all in the opening two rounds thus setting up one of the best looking potential round three matches. The head to head is dead even, so this should be a tight encounter. However their past three meetings have all been routine victories, so that could suggest that the winner will be victorious in fairly straight forward fashion. I don’t buy that this will be done in straight sets, and I am feeling a potential upset here with Suarez Navarro beating Kerber in 3 sets.
Week 1 Predictions (round of 16 matchups)
Muguruza d. S.Williams
Wozniacki d. Cornet
Kvitova d. Kanepi
V.Williams d. A.Radwanska
Ivanovic d. Makarova
Halep d. Beck
Bouchard d. Suarez Navarro
Sharapova d. Safarova
It may have been a glorified exhibition, but Serena Williams didn’t look good at all at the Hopman Cup. Add that to the fact that Muguruza beat her in their last meeting, and her ability to bring her best to the big matches, I have gone for the upset. Muguruza defeats Serena for the second straight time. Wozniacki will meet the Spaniard in the quarter finals after grinding down Alize Cornet. The Dane is the better player and will not have many problems defeating her French opponent.
Kvitova may need three sets to beat Kanepi, but I expect the world number four to overpower the Estonian in three sets. Meeting the Czech in the Quarter finals will be Venus Williams. I expect Venus to carry her form into this tournament and use it to defeat Agnieszka Radwanska in a tight two or three sets.
Makarova will provide tough opposition for Ana Ivanovic, but the Serb will out fight the Russian in a long three set battle. Simona Halep should have little trouble dispatching Annika Beck despite their close encounter in Shenzhen.
Bouchard always brings her best to the grand slams and I expect no different in Melbourne. Her match against Carla Suarez will be tight like their previous match, and I expect Bouchard to prevail again in three sets. Safarova will provide a huge test for Maria Sharapova, and I expect the Czech to take a set. However, Sharapova is arguably the best fighter on tour and it will show yet again as she prevails in 3 sets.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters: Wozniacki d. Muguruza
Kvitova d. V.Williams
Halep d. Ivanovic
Sharapova d. Bouchard
Last year, Muguruza got the better of Wozniacki at this event. But I don’t see history repeating it’s self here. Wozniacki will eventually grind the Spaniard down in my opinion, after a strong start by Muguruza. Garbine can often blow hot and cold in the same match and this will be one of those.
Venus Williams and Petra Kvitova have often provided with some classic encounters, but the head to head doesn’t lie. 5 times out of 6 the Czech has prevailed and I don’t see a reverse in fortunes here.
Despite the 3-1 head to head advantage Ivanovic holds, I expect Halep to beat her here. Halep will be riding a huge wave of momentum after an easy run to the quarter finals, whilst Ivanovic will likely be tired after a gruelling match against Makarova.
Sharapova vs Bouchard will be a rematch of their Roland Garros semi final last year. Sharapova won in three sets on that occasion, and she will do the same here. Sharapova has made a career of winning these type of matches, so you must favour the Russian.
Semis: Kvitova d. Wozniacki
Halep d. Sharapova
Kvitova vs Wozniacki is hard to predict as we don’t know how fit these two will be at this stage. Kvitova is in the better form heading in to the tournament and has the bigger weapons of the two, so I will predict Kvitova in 3.
Simona Halep will extract her revenge on Maria Sharapova after their Roland Garros final last year which saw the Russian win yet another three setter. Halep is currently Sharapova’s pigeon, but with me predicting Halep to win the tournament in pre season, I will stick to my guns and say Halep in three.
Final: Halep d. Kvitova
Halep’s time will finally arrive in Melbourne after an impressive display against Kvitova in the final. I expect Simona to use her previous experience to not make the same mistakes as she did in the Roland Garros final and defeat Kvitova in a great three set final.
Tennis Atlantic 