Australian Open week 2

Week 1 at the 2017 Australian Open is in the books, and what a week it’s been. World #1 Novak Djokovic fell to a stunning five set defeat in round 2 at the hands of qualifying wild card Denis Istomin, who started the tournament ranked outside of the top 100. That opens up the bottom half of the draw, and makes it more likely that we’ll have a new Grand Slam champion, and perhaps finalist as well. Here is your look ahead to week 2, with predictions for what’s to come.

Round of 16 matches

(1)Andy Murray vs. Mischa Zverev

Murray hasn’t dropped a set through three matches. Illya Marchenko and Sam Querrey both gave it a good effort, while teenager Andrey Rublev didn’t play quite as well, but regardless, the world #1 is the favorite to take his first ever Aussie Open title.

Zverev continues a late career breakthrough, he stunned John Isner 9-7 in a 5th set in round 2, and also earned wins over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Malek Jaziri. Zverev’s serve and volleying has been difficult to stop thus far, but Murray is a tremendous returner, and is a clear favorite in this match with a 3-0 h2h.

(17)Roger Federer vs. (5)Kei Nishikori

Federer has beaten Nishikori the past three times they met, and hasn’t dropped a set outside of his round 1 victory against Jurgen Melzer. Noah Rubin and Tomas Berdych were both dominated by the Swiss maestro, who is fit, and highly motivated at age 35.

Nishikori struggled with his serve, needing five sets to put away Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1, but has looked much better in matches against Jeremy Chardy and Lukas Lacko that were both completed in straights. Nishikori has the game to trouble Federer, but the Swiss veteran is a clear favorite, his aggressive ball striking should be superior in this one.

(4)Stan Wawrinka vs. Andreas Seppi

Wawrinka has won the last three meetings against Seppi, and although he’s had a shaky start, dropping sets in two of his three matches, he’s still a dangerous player left in the draw. Stan the man needed five sets against big hitter Martin Klizan, beat Steve Johnson in straights, and then narrowly avoided five sets against Viktor Troicki, winning a fourth set tiebreak. Seppi should be a bit exhausted as he dropped sets against both Paul-Henri Mathieu and Steve Darcis. In round 2, Seppi stunned Nick Kyrgios 10-8 in the 5ht set, coming back from two sets down to defeat the home favorite. Seppi’s steady play contrasted with Kyrgios roller coaster form, and eventually frustrated the young gun into defeat.

Seppi’s steadiness will likely trouble Wawrinka as well, but Wawrinka should tighten his game up and hit enough winners to prevail.

(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Dan Evans

The former AO finalist Tsonga got a huge win over Jack Sock in four sets in his last match, and he’s also defeated Thiago Monteiro and Dusan Lajovic to reach the second week. The in-form Evans is playing the best tennis of his career. The new top 50 player has won seven of his last eight matches, behind a powerful and versatile one-handed backhand. Evans upset Bernard Tomic, and also Marin Cilic in four sets, in consecutive matches, he also beat Facundo Bagnis in round 1.

Tsonga is a good attacking player, but Evans motivation has been something to watch recently. I’m going with an upset, and have Evans reaching a first ever slam quarterfinal.

(6)Gael Monfils vs. (9)Rafael Nadal

Nadal leads the h2h 12-2. Having lost weight, Rafa is playing better on hard courts than he has in recent years, and he looks fit, and newly aggressive on his groundstrokes, taking the ball earlier in rallies. The Spaniard needed five sets to defeat a powerful Alexander Zverev in round 3, as he outlasted the young gun with strong defensive play. Rafa also had easy wins against Florian Mayer, and Marcos Baghdatis in round 1 and 2.

Monfils has wins against Jiri Vesely, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Philipp Kohlschreiber, dropping just a set to Dolgopolov. The Frenchman is playing quite well right now, but I don’t think he’s good matchup for Nadal, given Nadal’s top spin tends to push him back and away from the baseline.

(13)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (3)Milos Raonic

Milos Raonic is suffering from flu, but leads the h2h 4-0 against RBA and is playing well, with his serve, volleys, and groundstrokes all clicking. Raonic defeated Dustin Brown, Gilles Muller, and Gilles Simon through three rounds, dropping just a set to Simon.

RBA dropped a set to David Ferrer, but he’s in a great form, having posted routine wins against Guido Pella and Yoshihito Nishioka. RBA is 7-0 to start the season, but unless his return game improves considerably, Raonic has to be the favorite.

(8)Dominic Thiem vs. (11)David Goffin

Thiem has won three of his last four matches against Goffin and the young Austrian continues to cement himself as a top 10 player. Wins against J.L. Struff, Jordan Thompson, and Benoit Paire allowed him to reach the second week, even though he dropped sets in all three matches.

Goffin is also a picture of steady tennis, after slipping past Reilly Opelka in five sets in round 1, he had no trouble with Radek Stepanek, and Ivo Karlovic, winning those matches in straight sets. The qualifier Opelka’s versatile game bothered Goffin, and Thiem isn’t the easiest opponent. That said, Thiem was having problems on serve in his last match, and seems to still be suffering from shoulder problems. Goffin is a clear favorite.

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(15)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (WC)Denis Istomin

Outside of a bad set against Hyeon Chung in round 2, Grigor Dimitrov has been playing great, posting eight straight wins, including routine victories over Chris O’Connell and Richard Gasquet. Most people expected Gasquet to put up a better showing, but Dimitrov simply dismantled him, playing especially well on return games.

The draw has opened up, thanks to Denis Istomin. Istomin was nearly defeated in a pre-qualifier to gain a wild card to the AO, but instead he played the match of his life, handing Novak Djokovic his worst defeat since 2008 with a confident five set victory. Djokovic started the match slow, and never was able to gather momentum, Istomin’s great ball striking and confident serving allowed him to overcome leg cramps to win two tiebreaks, and the fifth set. Djokovic was especially poor on return and spewed errors. Istomin’s first victim was Ivan Dodig in round 1, and Pablo Carreno Busta lost to Istomin in round 3, falling in five sets, after taking the 4th set.

Istomin has proven that he may be set for a return to being an ATP regular, but Dimitrov is the more consistent and higher ranked player. Istomin’s run should end in the round of 16.

Predictions for the remaining rounds

Quarters
Murray d. Federer in 4
Wawrinka d. Evans in 3
Raonic d. Nadal in 5
Dimitrov d. Goffin in 4

Murray will have a difficult match against Federer, but the fresher, younger, and better player at this point in their careers should prevail. Wawrinka’s backhand is better than Evans, and his experience should win out. Raonic and Nadal is a tough match to call, but on hard courts I’ll still go with Raonic. Dimitrov should have more upside than Goffin given his recent form.

Semis
Murray d. Wawrinka in 4
Raonic d. Dimitrov in 5

Murray and Raonic should be clear favorites to reach the final, Dimitrov is a wild card to reach his first ever slam final though, depending on Raonic’s health.

Final
Murray d. Raonic in 4

Raonic’s serve is a great weapon, but Murray’s elite return game neutralizes that. The World #1 should win his first ever Australian Open title, defeating Raonic just like he did in the Wimbledon final.

Djokovic Dominates All Challengers, Captures Fifth Australian Open Title
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

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Novak Djokovic simply could not be stopped in Melbourne, as the Serb only played one five setter all tournament, and he won that set with a bagel. Djokovic beat four time finalist Andy Murray, who continues to struggle with losing finals there, while playing some of his best tennis at the tournament, in the final in 4 sets. The match was a competitive 7-6 6-7 for the first two frames, but after that Djokovic took control, winning 12 of the final 15 games of the match for a 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-0 victory over the Scotsman.

Novak remains the world number one, and he’s the best plexicushion player on the planet at the moment, and perhaps the best of all time on the surface. He struggled with bouts of full body cramps, a jammed finger, and perhaps other ailments in his final with Murray, but after long rallies, and a physically taxing match where both skilled returners struggled to hold their serves throughout, Djokovic had Murray up against a wall, and he finished him, as winning a second set tiebreak didn’t seem to do much for Murray’s belief and left him spent emotionally and physically. Djokovic’s ailments and rollercoaster form early on, seemed to unnerve Murray, who would have to play a difficult, and taxing point, and often not even win it, then be treated to Djokovic doubled over and hitting the ball into the next the next point. His rhythm was interrupted and he simply didn’t serve well enough to win this, as he had every chance to go up 2 sets to love, if he had taken the first set tiebreak, and putting in all his effort to win the second, only to be faced with a renewed Djokovic over the final two frames, broke him. Djokovic wiped up in the fourth, and the final was simply not compelling after the first two sets, as it started to go faster, and the momentum of the match was established.

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Murray had a great tournament, but he simply had to put in a lot more effort to win points than Novak had to, the Serbian has an extra gear, and it served him well this tournament. In week 2, Djokovic didn’t drop a set against big servers Gilles Muller, and Milos Raonic, then was pushed to five, but bageled Stan Wawrinka in the 5th, as the Swiss couldn’t replicate his shocking victory last year. Raonic was disappointing to only force one tiebreak, and his return simply wasn’t good enough to trouble Djokovic, who eventually was able to read his serve. Previously, Raonic needed 5 sets to oust Spanish serve and slice maestro Feliciano Lopez, taking advantage of his opponents double faults to break. Wawrinka fought hard, and was dictating points with his backhand at times, but he mentally faded after taking the 4th set and having a break point chance early in the 5th. Simply put, Djokovic relied not only on his physical and technical talents, but also on his mental fortitude to bludgeon his opponents into submission.

Murray beat Grigor Dimitrov in 4 sets, that match was full of highlights but Dimitrov squandered break up leads in both the first and fourth set and lost the match that way, an injured Nick Kyrgios, who saved match points in a classic round of 16 encounter against Andreas Seppi that went 5 sets, in straights, and Tomas Berdych also in 4 for his week two campaign. Berdych, who totally dominated a listless Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, Nadal only able to play even top 50 level tennis for one set, that Berdych had a bit of trouble closing out, but eventually did, winning in straights, was powerful in the first set, but Murray turned it on after feeling the Czech out and won the next two sets by a combined score of 12-3. Berdych tried to rally back in the fourth, but a late break for a mentally tougher and physically conditioned Murray was enough to win him the match. Murray was angry with Berdych throughout as there were harsh words exchanged. Berdych had also previously taken out another home Aussie, Bernard Tomic, in straight sets, as Tomic struggled with his power and dictation of the rallies.

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The Charismatic Italian duo of Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli beat French bromance Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut to win their first ever grand slam titles in the men’s doubles. The doubles final was contested between two pairs of players that both primarily have focused on singles on tour throughout their careers.

Djokovic will go into the rest of the season as a favorite on every surface besides clay at every tournament he plans to enter, while Murray is back playing top 5 tennis, Wawrinka proved he is here to stay this season, and Berdych continues to search for the answers as to what it’s going to take for him to get over the hump in slams.