Rafael Nadal showed no signs of stress or fatigue as he raced through his matches in Barcelona without dropping a set, continued his consecutive sets won streak on clay that dates back to last season. Nadal surrendered 5 games to Martin Klizan in the quarters, but was otherwise unbothered, defeating Roberto Carballes Baena, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Klizan, and David Goffin with two bagels and a breadstick thrown in prior to the final.
In that final he faced next-gen star Stefanos Tsitsipas, a rising Greek playing in his first ATP final. Tsitsipas has a great career ahead of him but he was overmatched by Rafa’s clay prowess, falling 6-2 6-1.
Tsitsipas, who has stepped up to a full time ATP schedule this year, won matches against Corentin Moutet, Diego Schwartzman, Albert Ramos, Dominic Thiem, and Pablo Carreno Busta without dropping a set, a great run to the final that saw at least three upsets in that period.
The doubles final was won by the Lopez brothers, as Marc and Feliciano beat Qureshi/Rojer, completing a Spanish sweep of Barcelona.
Marco Cecchinato had the joy of winning his first ATP title in the Budapest 250. The Italian, who had a poor record on clay at the tour level until this year, defeated John Millman 7-5 6-4 in the final. Millman, another clay struggler at tour level, also had the chance to win his first ATP title, but came up just short.
Cecchinato entered the draw as a lucky loser and went on to defeat Mirza Basic, Damir Dzumhur, J.L. Struff, and Andreas Seppi. The wins over Struff and Seppi coming in three sets. Millman reached the final with wins against Radu Albot, Lucas Pouille, Yannick Maden, and Aljaz Bedene, his final three wins all upsets, and the last two coming in tight third sets.
Inglot/Skugor won the doubles title over Middelkoop/Molteni.
Rafael Nadal Heads to Spain as Barcelona Open Top Seed Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Barcelona Open 500 is the ATP’s marquee clay event this week as Rafael Nadal leads the field, joined by Novak Djokovic and other stars of the game. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
Top seed Rafael Nadal will look to extend his winning streak on clay against Andreas Haider-Maurer or Roberto Carballes Baena, he should then get a Monte Carlo final rematch against Kei Nishikori. Nishikori needs to get past Yuichi Sugita or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to get there. At that third round stage he’s unlikely to prevail against Rafa.
Novak Djokovic won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo and looks focused enough to beat Martin Klizan or Federico Delbonis, then his countryman Dusan Lajovic, or a Spaniard, Pedro Martinez or Feliciano Lopez. I’ll take Djokovic over Lopez in the third round to setup a quarterfinal against Nadal.
David Goffin and Karen Khachanov should be on a collision course in the third section. Goffin needs to beat Mikhail Kukushkin or Marcel Granollers, while Khachanov will take on Leonardo Mayer or Mischa Zverev. Seemingly over his eye injury, Goffin is the favorite to reach the quarters.
Hyeon Chung begins his clay season against Bjorn Fratangelo or Alexey Vatutin, he should reach the third round and take on Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA has Tommy Robredo/Ivo Karlovic prior to Chung, I have RBA taking this section.
Bottom Half:
A semifinalist in Monte Carlo, Grigor Dimitrov should edge Gilles Simon (or Ilya Ivashka) before running into Andrey Rublev, or Houston finalist Tennys Sandgren/Malek Jaziri. Rublev isn’t an easy win for Dimitrov but he should reach the quarters.
Home hero Pablo Carreno Busta will be favored against Nicolas Jarry/Benoit Paire before most likely facing Pablo Cuevas in round 3. Cuevas must get past Ricardo Ojeda and Adrian Mannarino. Either clay court talent could win that match, but I’ll back PCB at home.
Dominic Thiem is playing well and should ease past Joao Sousa/Jaume Munar, then defeat home favorite Fernando Verdasco in round 3. Verdasco faces Guido Pella/Peter Gojowczyk first up.
Diego Schwartzman and Albert Ramos are co-favorites in the final section. Stefanos Tsitsipas would love to spoil the party though. A dark horse for the week, the Greek #1 opens with Corentin Moutet, with Schwartzman to follow. Ramos will take on Rogerio Dutra Silva or Jared Donaldson in round 2. I’ll back Schwartzman to win the section over Ramos.
Quarters
Nadal d. Djokovic
Goffin d. Bautista Agut
Thiem d. Schwartzman
Dimitrov d. Carreno Busta
if anyone is going to beat Rafa on clay it would be Djokovic. I don’t think he’s reached that level post injury though and thus Nadal is the favorite. The other quarterfinals shouldn’t be close, but don’t sleep on Schwartzman or RBA at home.
Semis
Nadal d. Goffin
Thiem d. Dimitrov
Nadal and Thiem should face off in the final, with Nadal walking away a winner, the same outcome as 2017.
Rafael Nadal’s 10th title in Barcelona was special, as it came on a court that was named after him at the start of the tournament this year. Rafa, 29-5 on the season, and now 10-0 on clay, did the double once again in is career, taking Barcelona after taking Monte Carlo the prior week. Nadal hasn’t dropped a set on clay in nine straight matches and rolled past Rogerio Dutra Silva, Kevin Anderson, Hyeon Chung, Horacio Zeballos, and finalist Dominic Thiem beating Thiem 6-4 6-1. Thiem, playing his second final of 2017, was blitzed by Nadal but still claimed a win over world #1 Andy Murray in the semifinals, and also beat Kyle Edmund, Dan Evans, and Yuichi Sugita on the week.
Florin Mergea and Aisam-ul-Haq Qureshi beat Philipp Petzschner and Alexander Peya in the doubles final.
ATP Budapest
Lucas Pouille claimed his eighth win in nine matches 6-3 6-1 over qualifier Aljaz Bedene to claim the title in Budapest, his first of 2017, and the second of his career at age 23. Pouille needed three sets against Jiri Vesely in his first match in Hungary, but didn’t look back after that easing past Martin Klizan and Paolo Lorenzi to make the final, before thumping Bedene, who had won a remarkable sixteen straight matches leading into the final. In the end fatigue likely hurt his already limited changes against the talented Frenchman. Bedene beat lucky loser Marius Copil twice in two matches then beat Robin Haase, Ivo Karlovic, and qualifier Laslo Djere without dropping a set.
Brian Baker and Nikola Mektic won the doubles title over Juan Sebastian Cabral and Robert Farah.
2017 ATP Barcelona Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The second clay level 500 of the season is underway in Barcelona with a host of top players competing. Here is your preview with predictions.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
ATP World Tour 500
April 24-30, 2017
Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €2,324,905
Top Half:
Andy Murray is struggling but he’s never lost to Bernard Tomic (5-0), and Tomic won his first match in months against Dustin Brown in round 1. Murray should also find his way past Feliciano Lopez (or Albert Montanes) in the third round, as this is not the most difficult section with no one else in better form, despite Murray’s current issues. Surprise Monte Carlo finalist Albert Ramos faces young gun Casper Ruud in round 2, Ruud has won three straight matches having come through qualifying, but presuming Ramos is rested enough he should continue his good run of play. Jan-Lennard Struff is also playing well, but I have Roberto Bautista Agut reaching the quarterfinals with wins over Struff and Ramos, before falling to Murray.
A solid clay courter, Dominic Thiem should clear out Dan Evans while Pablo Carreno Busta looks set to end Yuichi Sugita’s remarkable run, as a lucky loser he stunned Richard Gasquet on clay in one of the upsets of the year, and also has a win against Tommy Robredo thus far. Carreno Busta defeated Andreas Seppi already, but Thiem should prove too much in the quarters given the result of the Rio final on clay earlier this year that Thiem won.
Bottom Half:
Benoit Paire and Joao Sousa look set to face off in the bottom half, Paire already beat Marcel Granollers, while Sousa is a reasonable favorite against Horacio Zeballos. Look for Paire to sneak into the quarterfinals and face either Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Pablo Cuevas or semifinalist David Goffin, most likely Goffin. Goffin is in great form and should defeat qualifier Nikolosz Basilashvili, while Cuevas beats Karen Khachanov before falling to Goffin. Goffin is the clear favorite to reach the semis here.
Rafael Nadal will play all of his matches in Barcelona on the court named after him, the nine-time and defending champion of this tournament comes off a title in Monte Carlo on clay, and should ease past Rogerio Dutra Silva in round 2, then defeat Kevin Anderson round 3, after Anderson upset a struggling David Ferrer in round 2, also posting a win over Carlos Berlocq round 1. Casablanca finalist Philipp Kohlschreiber needs to defeat Hyeon Chung before facing off with his countryman Alexander Zverev. The younger Zverev will be the favorite, but Kohli is in good form and I have him falling to Nadal in the quarterfinals.
Dark Horse: Pablo Carreno Busta
PCB has a shot at upsetting Thiem and making a run in the top half section, he’s a home player and clearly has the ability on clay, especially with Gasquet already knocked out, to reach the semis or beyond.
Predictions
Semis Thiem d. Murray
Nadal d. Goffin
Final Nadal d. Thiem
Murray’s poor form on clay suggests Thiem has a great shot at making this final, Nadal is the clear favorite to win yet again in Barcelona though, especially after dominating Monte Carlo.
2016 ATP Barcelona Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The European spring clay court season continues with the first ATP World Tour stop in Spain. The Barcelona Open is a 500 level tournament, and a lot of intriguing talents are taking part.
Barcelona Open BancSabadell
ATP World Tour 500
Barcelona, Spain
April 18-24, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €2,152,690
Top 8 seeds (top 16 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (5)
2: Kei Nishikori (6)
3: David Ferrer (8)
4: Richard Gasquet (10)
5: Roberto Bautista Agut (17)
6: Benoit Paire (22)
7: Feliciano Lopez (23)
8: Viktor Troicki (24)
Barcelona has nearly half of the ATP top 10, and a good variety of well known players, making this a solid 500 level stop. Most of the first rounders are not likely to be competitive, or interesting.
Top Half:
Recent Monte Carlo champion, and x8 Barcelona champion Rafael Nadal should breeze through his first few rounds. The seed in his section is Joao Sousa, who is average at best on clay. Rafa should open with Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Marcel Granollers, presuming Granollers can dispatch Daniel Munoz De La Nava. After that, it could be Sousa, or Casablanca semifinalist Albert Montanes, another fading Spanish veteran. Montanes opens with Roberto Carballes Baena, who is primarily a challenger player. I have Montanes slipping past Sousa, before falling to Nadal for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Fabio Fognini and Viktor Troicki are the seeds below Rafa, Fognini was poor in Monte Carlo after a few weeks off of the tour, but he’s still a talented, and accomplished clay courter. Fognini should dispatch either Rajeev Ram, or veteran Mikhail Youzhny in his first match. Both are poor on clay, and don’t have games suited for the surface. Viktor Troicki also suffered an opening round loss in Monte Carlo, but he’s had some success on clay, and that should continue against either Ernests Gulbis, or Marton Fuscovics in round 2. Gulbis is on a three match losing streak, while Fuscovics is playing his first ATP match of the season, after going 0-2 last year on the main tour. This section features many underachievers in recent months. I have Troicki defeating Fognini for a quarterfinal spot. They have a split 2-2 h2h.
David Ferrer has multiple finals in Barcelona, but has never won a title at this tournament. The Spaniard pulled out of Monte Carlo with an injury, but he should be fit enough to slip past either Santiago Giraldo, or qualifier Radek Stepanek in his opening match. Giraldo is slightly better on clay than Stepanek, but Ferrer outclasses both players. Andrey Kuznetsov lost his opening Monte Carlo contest, but he’s had a career year thus far, and should get past either Franko Skugor, or Inigo Cervantes to setup a meeting with Ferrer in round 3. Skugor, a doubles specialist, has qualified for three ATP singles main draws already this year. Kuznetsov upsetting Ferrer would not surprise me at all, given David has been in decline as of late, but I have to go with Ferrer to reach the quarterfinals. Kuznetsov upset Ferrer at Wimbledon.
Both Feliciano Lopez, and Philipp Kohlschreiber are capable of having a good run in their section. Lopez will face qualifier Pedro Cachin, or Ivan Dodig, while Kohlschreiber is likely to face Pablo Carreno Busta, unless Denis Istomin spoils that interesting matchup. The Casablanca quarterfinalist is a possible dark horse, but Kohli should be good enough on clay to advance. Cachin is playing his first ATP match of the season, and Lopez should face Kohlschreiber in round 3. He recently made the semifinals in Houston. Kohli and Lopez have split h2h meetings on clay, I have Kohlschreiber reaching the quarterfinals given the surface.
Bottom Half:
Kei Nishikori has won back to back Barcelona Open titles, and he’s in a section that should result in a good start to his quest for at third Barcelona title. After a 15-3 record on clay last year, Nishikori recently reached the final in Miami as well. Neither Thiemo De Bakker, or recent challenger champion Elias Ymer are capable of challenging him in round 2. Both Mikhail Kukushkin and Victor Estrella have been dire as of late, and that means power hitter Jeremy Chardy should advance to face Nishikori in round 3. Chardy is 2-0 against Nishikori on clay, but I have to pick Kei to reach the quarters.
Roberto Bautista Agut continued his good season with a pair of wins in Monte Carlo. RBA will face either Aljaz Bedene, or the rising Karen Khachanov, a qualifier, in round 2. After that, he should face the dangerous, but inconsistent, Alexandr Dolgopolov in round 3. Dolgo will face either Facundo Bagnis or Evgeny Donskoy in round 2. Bagnis, a solid clay courter, upsetting Dolgopolov would not surprise me. The Ukrainian is known to be shaky on the surface. RBA should prevail against either Dolgo or Bagnis to reach the quarters.
Richard Gasquet would like to have a strong showing, and given his section, he should be able to get some momentum going on clay. The #4 seed exited in his second match in Monte Carlo, but should find more success against Malek Jaziri, or Hyeon Chung. The young Korean recently reached the quarterfinals in Houston. Thomaz Bellucci, a loser of five straight, is the other seed in this section, but all eyes will be on the young gun Alexander Zverev. Zverev should defeat fellow German J.L. Struff, a strong qualifier, in round 1, and then force Bellucci to crumble once more for a third round spot. Zverev is a serious threat to Gasquet, but assuming the Frenchman is healthy, I have him in the quarterfinals.
Benoit Paire snapped a losing skid and won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo, where he also posed a threat to Andy Murray. His showing on the clay there was the first signs of life from the scattered Frenchman in weeks. With Nicolas Almagro, his likely round 2 opponent, struggling, Paire should reach round 3. Almagro opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili, who is in total freefall right now. Defending finalist Albert Ramos will face off with Spanish young gun Jaume Munar in round 1. Ramos has lost three straight, but he should defeat Munar, before falling to Pablo Cuevas, the best player in this section on clay. Cuevas 12-2 clay court record should move to at least 14-2 on the season when he reaches the quarterfinals.
Zverev has the skill, and the draw, to at least reach the third round, and if he upsets Gasquet, he could go as far as the semifinals. This young German prospect has come into his own on all surfaces, and he’s the player to watch at the Barcelona Open.
Predictions
Quarters
Nadal d. Troicki
Ferrer d. Kohlschreiber
Cuevas d. Gasquet
Nishikori d. Bautista Agut
Nadal and Ferrer have dominated their respective h2h records in the possible quarterfinal matchups. Cuevas should be slightly better than Gasquet, and Nishikori has a stronger skillset than RBA, that has lead to a 4-0 h2h.
Semis
Nadal d. Ferrer
Nishikori d. Cuevas
Nishikori likely proves too fast, and too skilled for Cuevas, Nadal has won three straight vs. Ferrer, and is simply a much better player than he is right now.
Final
Nadal d. Nishikori
On a hard court, I’d be more tempted to pick Nisihkori, but after Rafa’s strong showing on clay in Monte Carlo, I have to think he’ll get back in the winners circle in Barcelona. This would be a great final, and would move Nadal to 3-0 on clay against Nishikori.
Tennis Atlantic 2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 14 (Barcelona and Bucharest) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Up to 750 points are up for grabs this week in the pair of European clay court events, Barcelona is a 500, and Bucharest is a 250.
Barcelona
2015 Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Nishikori vs. Gabashvili, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Cuevas vs. Struff, Bellucci vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Thiem, Monaco vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Souza, Granollers vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Paire, Kuznetsov vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. de Bakker, Montanes vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ilhan, Ramos vs. Mayer, Fognini vs. Verdasco, Almagro vs. Nadal Round of 16 matches: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Cuevas vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Tsonga, Paire vs. Kohlschreiber, de Bakker vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ramos, Verdasco vs. Nadal Quarterfinals; Nishikori vs. Cuevas, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Kohlschreiber vs. Ferrer, Ramos vs. Nadal Semifinals; Nishikori vs. Cilic, Ferrer vs. Nadal Final; Nishikori vs. Nadal Champion; Nadal
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Cuevas vs. Carballes Baena, Bellucci vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Thiem, Monaco vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Kukushkin, Granollers vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Paire, Kuznetsov vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ymer, Montanes vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ward, Ramos vs. Mayer, Fognini vs. Verdasco, Almagro vs. Nadal Round of 16 matches: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Cuevas vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Klizn, Robredo vs. Tsonga, Paire vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Mayer, Verdasco vs. Nadal Quarterfinals; Nishikori vs. Bautista Agut, Klizan vs. Tsonga, Kohlschreiber vs. Ferrer, Mayer vs. Nadal Semifinals; Nishikori vs Tsonga, Ferrer vs. Nadal Final; Nishikori vs. Nadal Champion; Nishikori
Jeff McMillan’s picks
Round 2 matches: Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Cuevas vs. Struff, Bellucci vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Thiem, Monaco vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Souza, Granollers vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Paire, Kuznetsov vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ymer, Berankis vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ilhan, Ramos vs. Mayer, Fognini vs. Verdasco, Almagro vs. Nadal Round of 16 matches: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Cuevas vs. Bellucci, Cilic vs. Monaco, Robredo vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ramos, Verdasco vs. Nadal Quarterfinals; Nishikori vs. Cuevas, Monaco vs. Robredo, Kohlschreiber vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Nadal Semifinals; Nishikori vs Robredo, Ferrer vs. Nadal Final; Nishikori vs. Nadal Champion; Nishikori
Joe Craven’s picks
Round 2 matches: Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Cuevas vs. Struff, Bellucci vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Thiem, Monaco vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Kukushkin, Granollers vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Paire, Kuznetsov vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. de Bakker, Berankis vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ilhan, Andujar vs. Mayer, Fognini vs. Verdasco, Almagro vs. Nadal Round of 16 matches: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Cuevas vs. Bellucci, Cilic vs. Monaco, Robredo vs. Tsonga, Paire vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Mayer, Verdasco vs. Nadal Quarterfinals; Dolgopolov vs. Bellucci, Monaco vs. Tsonga, Kohlschreiber vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Nadal Semifinals; Dolgopolov vs. Monaco, Ferrer vs. Nadal Final; Dolgopolov vs. Nadal Champion; Nadal
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Nishikori vs. Carreno Busta, Dolgopolov vs. Giraldo, Cuevas vs. Struff, Bellucci vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Thiem, Monaco vs. Klizan, Robredo vs. Kukushkin, Granollers vs. Tsonga, Gulbis vs. Paire, Kuznetsov vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ymer, Berankis vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ilhan, Ramos vs. Mayer, Fognini vs. Verdasco, Almagro vs. Nadal Round of 16 matches: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Cuevas vs. Bautista Agut, Cilic vs. Monaco, Robredo vs. Tsonga, Paire vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Ferrer, Lopez vs. Ramos, Verdasco vs. Nadal Quarterfinals; Dolgopolov vs. Cuevas, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Paire vs. Ferrer, Ramos vs. Nadal Semifinals; Dolgopolov vs. Cilic, Ferrer vs. Nadal Final; Dolgopolov vs. Nadal Champion; Nadal
Nadal and Nishikori are both expected to do well, Nadal is the favorite, and Dolgopolov could surprise.
Round 2 matches; Simon vs. Tipsarevic, Qualifier vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Coric, Mayer vs. Schwartzman, Garcia-Lopez vs. Darcis, Lajovic vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Haider-Maurer, Copil vs. Monfils Quarterfinals: Simon vs. Troicki, Coric vs. Mayer, Garcia-Lopez vs. Rosol, Haider-Maurer vs. Monfils Semifinals; Simon vs. Coric, Rosol vs. Monfils Final; Simon vs. Monfils Champion; Simon
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches; Simon vs. Tipsarevic, Istomin vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Coric, Jaziri vs. Vesely, Garcia-Lopez vs. Baghdatis, Lajovic vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Haider-Maurer, Youzhny vs. Monfils Quarterfinals: Simon vs. Troicki, Coric vs. Vesely, Garcia-Lopez vs. Rosol, Haider-Maurer vs. Monfils Semifinals; Simon vs. Vesely, Garcia-Lopez vs. Monfils Final; Simon vs. Monfils Champion; Simon
Jeff McMillan’s picks
Round 2 matches; Simon vs. Tipsarevic, Istomin vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Coric, Mayer vs. Schwartzman, Garcia-Lopez vs. Darcis, Qualifier vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Haider-Maurer, Copil vs. Monfils Quarterfinals: Simon vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs Schwartzman, Garcia-Lopez vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Monfils Semifinals; Simon vs. Karlovic, Garcia-Lopez vs. Monfils Final; Simon vs. Monfils Champion; Simon
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches; Simon vs. Tipsarevic, Istomin vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Coric, Mayer vs. Schwartzman, Garcia-Lopez vs. Darcis, Lajovic vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Haider-Maurer, Copil vs. Monfils Quarterfinals: Simon vs. Troicki, Coric vs. Mayer, Garcia-Lopez vs. Rosol, Bolelli vs. Monfils Semifinals; Simon vs. Coric, Garcia-Lopez vs. Monfils Final; Simon vs. Monfils Champion; Simon
Everyone is predicting an All-French final, while opinions are mixed on Borna Coric.
As Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych battled it out in the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters. Things were also heating up in Barcelona as the final stage of qualifying for the ATP Open Banc Sabadell commenced with four seeded player’s booking their place in the main draw.
Top seed James Ward produced a convincing match as he dropped only five games against Portugal’s Rui Machado. Going into the match the British number three had to overcome a tough three set match against wildcard entrant Eduard Guell Bartrina, a Spanish 16-year-old who is ranked 50th in the juniors. Fortunately for Ward he didn’t encounter such difficulty against Machado in the deciding round as he remained unbroken through the match to ease himself to a 6-2, 6-3, victory.
Andrey Rublev’s progression from juniors into the pro circuit got yet another boost as he knocked out second seed Norbert Gombos 7-6(4), 6-3. The world junior number one produced his first ever main draw Masters win last month when he beat Pablo Casrreno Busta in three sets at the Miami Open. It wasn’t all plain sailing during the match, however, as Gombos opened a commanding lead in both sets (5-2 in the first and 3-1 in the second) before the current French Open boy’s champion battled his way back to take both sets.
Rublev wasn’t the only junior to reach the main draw as Spain’s Jaume Munar produced a 6-2, 7-5, win against Argentina’s Pedro Cachin. Munar was the runner-up to Rublev in last year’s French Open Boy’s final. In the first round the 17-year-old was leading 6th seed Daniel Munoz de la Nava 6-3, 5-4, before he retired due to an apparent issue with his left knee. At 835th in the world, Munar will be the lowest ranked player in this year’s draw.
Dutch third seed Thiemo De Bakker endured two close sets before edging his way past Germany’s Peter Torebko. After losing his first two service games of the match, Bakker started started to generate more consistency on court against Torebko to enable him to take the 7-5, 6-4, victory. Bakker has only played in the tournament once before which was in 2010. On that occasion he produced back to back top 20 wins over Juan Carlos Ferrero and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to reach the semi-finals.
During the only three setter match in the final round of qualifying, Marton Fucsovics spent over two hours on court to beat Kenny de Schepper. The Hungarian 7th seed came from a set down to win 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(2). He had two opportunities to take the final set 7-5 but failed to convert as Schepper forced things into a deciding tie-break. Unfortunately for Schepper in the final, he suffered three consecutive breaks of serve as Fucsovics surged to the win.
The final qualifier into the Barcelona main draw is Yuichi Sugita. The Japanese world number 140 came into the qualifying draw with good form following his run to the final of the ATP St. Brieuc Challenger in France where he lost to Nicolas Mahut. St. Brieuc had been his first Challenger final since October last year. During his Barcelona qualifying campaign Sugita only dropped a total of five games (one against Juan Lizariturry in the first round and four to Oriol Roca Batalla in the final round).
The teens, Rublev and Munar both got interesting round 1 matchups against Benoit Paire and Fernando Verdasco respectiely, while Sugita will face Thomaz Bellucci, Fucsovics will face Andrey Kuznetsov, de Bakker takes on Elias Ymer, and Ward gets a winnable match with Marsel Ilhan
2015 ATP Barcelona and Bucharest Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The European spring journey continues for the players of the ATP world tour with clay court events in both Barcelona, Spain, and Bucharest, Romania, with Barca a 500 series event, and Bucharest, one of the few ATP events in Eastern Europe, a 250.
ATP Barcelona
2015 ATP Barcelona Preview
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
ATP World Tour 500
Barcelona, Spain
April 20-April 26, 2015
Prize Money: €1,993,230
Top 8 seeds (top 16 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (4)
2: Rafael Nadal (5)
3: David Ferrer (7)
4: Marin Cilic (10)
5: Feliciano Lopez (12)
6: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (14)
7: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
8: Ernests Gulbis (18)
Four of the top 10 will be playing in Barcelona, and the top 8 seeds are all top 20 players for a strong 500 level field.
First round matchups to watch:
Alex Dolgopolov vs. Joao Sousa
Dolgopolov has played relatively well in the past few weeks, but he remains a streaky highlight reel generator, he’s the favorite against the streaky Portuguese player Joao Sousa, who can struggle for weeks, but puts together a great tournament from time to time. Both these players hit the ball relatively hard from the ground, and they are solid movers, thus creating an interesting matchup, I have Dolgo winning in straights but upset potential is there.
Thiem is the favorite without a doubt, but don’t count the veteran Estrella out, as he’s known for the ability to put up the occasional heroic performance. He’s a great mover, while Thiem, though he rounded into form in Miami, lost his opening match in Monte Carlo on clay, and has been unpredictably poor this year. Estrella retired in his last match in Monte Carlo against David Ferrer, so his physical condition is in question. As I said, I expect Thiem to prevail, but it’s still an interesting matchup.
Benoit Paire vs. (Q)Jaume Munar
Benoit Paire, who used to be considered a young gun, will take on one of the unheralded young guns coming onto the tour slowly but surely, 17 year old Spaniard Jaume Munar, who qualified to reach the main draw. Munar just recently turned pro, and was a former top 5 junior who reached the French Open Junior final in 2014, I’m interested to see what he can do against the technically talented but mentally weak Paire, who has a world class backhand, but a futures level forehand. It’s a winnable matchup for sure, though Paire has played well on the challenger tour in 2015.
Fernando Verdasco vs. (Q)Andrey Rublev
Former Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco will take on the player Munar lost to in that RG junior final in 2014, Andrey Rublev, a more recognizable young gun who won ATP matches in both Delray Beach and Miami, and then qualified to reach the main draw here. At 17, the combustible Rublev may be less mentally stable than even Verdasco, but he has all the weapons to make this a match, and he could at least take a set. Verdasco of course has the world class forehand and he reached the semis in Houston, along with a round 1 loss to Grigor Dimitrov in Monte Carlo. Once again, look for the favorite to win but the challenger to put up a more competitive contest than expected.
Kei Nishikori snapped Rafael Nadal’s chokehold on this tournament last year, as the defending champion, who is also ranked higher than the king of clay, will begin his clay court season in Barcelona and work on keeping his ranking trending upwards. It should be a relatively easy start for Nishikori, who went 10-2 on clay last year, as he will open with Pablo Carreno Busta or Teymuraz Gabashvili, both of whom have struggled in 2015. After that, Nishikori could get a shotmakers match with Alex Dolgopolov in the round of 16.
Dolgo will need to beat Sousa, and then defending finalist Santiago Giraldo, who has struggled in 2015 to set that up. Giraldo has their lone clay h2h win, but is 1-3 in the overall h2h, and he comes off quarterfinals in Houston, while Dolgopolov won a round in Monte Carlo before losing to the in-form Gael Monfils in a close contest. Regardless, Nishikori beat Giraldo in the final here last year, and he is a perfect 3-0 with no sets dropped against Dolgopolov, including a win this year in Acapulco against the man from Ukraine.
In the quarters the road is unlikely to get easier for Nishikori to defend his title, as Pablo Cuevas and Roberto Bautista Agut are the primary contenders in the section below. Cuevas won an ATP title on clay in Sao Paulo earlier in the year, and is making his European debut this year, he should be able to ease past either the struggling JL Struff or the struggling Roberto Carballes Baena, a wild card in the second round. RBA won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo, and appears to be playing a bit better than he was earlier this year, where deficiencies in his game were evident. He will open with most likely Thomaz Bellucci, one of the dangerous non-seeds in this draw who beat RBA on clay in Davis Cup last year.
Bellucci will need to beat qualifier Yuichi Sugita in round 1, and is a poor 3-6 on clay in 2015, that said, hes a streaky player who can catch form, so though I picked RBA to face off with Cuevas, Bellucci has a chance here. In that match between Cuevas-RBA, I’m going with an upset and have Cuevas into the quarters, he makes his living on clay and his game has steadily been improving over the past few months.
As for the match between Cuevas-Nishikori, Nishikori has a h2h win on clay, and he’s the better player, nothing indicates to me he will struggle presently, even though he hasn’t been red hot, and I don’t think Cuevas will have the weapons and skill needed to win that matchup, thus putting Kei into the semis.
4 seed Marin Cilic, who reached the quarters in a Monte Carlo surprise, will open with the Estrella/Thiem winner, if he struggles, Thiem could very well pull an upset and give him trouble, however his solid play in Monte Carlo gives me the confidence to say he will win that, given Thiem has likewise been erratic this season, and one would have to think Cilic, who is coming off of injury, can only improve as he gets more matches under his belt.
Casablanca champ Martin Klizan could stop Cilic in his tracks in the third round though, Klizan will need to beat Juan Monaco, who cooled down in Monte Carlo, and lost in the second round after previously showing good form. Monaco should defeat the struggling Alejandro Gonzalez however in round 1. What bodes well for Cilic’s chances is he’s 3-0 against Klizan, but they have never met on clay, and that’s a swing matchup to me, but I’m picking Cilic to go into the quarters.
Cilic/Klizan/Monaco/Thiem are almost certain to face either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Tommy Robredo in the quarters, as the section below Cilic is a weaker one. Robredo will face either Joao Souza or Mikhail Kukushkin, neither of whom are in good form, in round 2, while Tsonga has Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers, two more out of form players. Tsonga is 3-2 this year, while Robredo won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo but has overall not played that great this year, it’s a hard match to pick, but Tsonga has more upside potential, and thus I’m going with him to reach the quarters and face Cilic in a rematch of their Monte Carlo match that Cilic won, given that result, a Nishikori vs. Cilic semifinal seems most likely in the top half.
Bottom Half:
Rafa Nadal is the undisputed king of Barcelona with a 42-2 record at the tournament, and 8 titles, but he lost here last year and right off the bat he has a chance to get revenge against the player he lost to, Nicolas Almagro, who opens with journeyman Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. Nadal comes off the semis in Monte Carlo, where he did well against all of his opponents except the world number 1 Djokovic, while Almagro was last a quarterfinalist in Casablanca. Nadal beat Almagro in Miami 4 and 2, and as I said should be hungry for revenge, so I really don’t expect that to be much of a match, given that the performance Almagro turned in 2014 was once in a lifetime.
Look for Nadal against Verdasco/Rublev in round 3, the seed is Fabio Fognini, but his singles game is challenger level right now (1-6 since reaching the Rio final), and Verdasco is solid enough to win especially given the 3-1 h2h. Verdasco of course shocked Nadal in Miami, and he will do his best to try do it again, however, on clay the advantage should swing further towards Nadal, and thus he should be able to reach the quarters at one of his best events.
Feliciano Lopez will player either qualifier James Ward or Marsel Ilhan, though he’s not elite on clay, he still should be good enough to win that round 2 match and setup a match with either Leo Mayer or Albert Ramos/Pablo Andujar. Ramos has been in good form in the past few tournaments, while Mayer has been struggling. Ramos leads the h2h with Mayer 3-2, but Mayer beat him in Sao Paulo this year.
Andujar has beaten Ramos before as well and they are similar ball spinning dirtballers as an aside and Ramos has been in better form, giving him the edge. I have Ramos beting Mayer, and then Lopez to reach the quarters, Ramos has a 2-0 h2h edge with Lopez, and he is a better clay court player, so given the surface, the lower ranked Spaniard has to be the favorite. Nadal has beaten Ramos twice before in Barcelona, and he should do so again to reach the semis.
David Ferrer will face wild card Albert Montanes, a journeyman veteran, or Ricardas Berankis, a former top junior turned journeyman, in the opening round. He has never won in Barcelona but he’s reached the final four previous times, and he comes off a quarterfinal loss to Nadal in Monte Carlo. Ferru has been peak this season and I expect him to blow past Montanes/Berankis and also Nick Kyrgios, the 16 seed, to reach the round of 16. Kyrgios is returning to tour from a back injury, and has limited experience on clay. In fact, the young gun may well lose to qualifier Thiemo De Bakker, or fellow young gun wild card Elias Ymer in round 2, De Bakker has been reliable in ATP qualifying this season an seems breakthrough ready. I have Ferrer beating Montanes, and De Bakker to reach the round of 16.
12 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber is the favorite for the quarterfinals in the weakest section of the draw. The wheels have come off for the 8 seed Ernests Gulbis, who badly needs to be back gaining confidence and form with his new coaching team on the challenger tour, rather than continuing to self-destruct at the ATP level. He was a cacophony of errors in a blowout loss in Monte Carlo, and I don’t see the bleeding stopping against the Munar/Paire winner, though it could. The 17 year old Munar actually has a realistic path to the third round, but I have it Paire vs. Kohlschreiber, after Kohli beats Andrey Kuznetsov, who will face Marton Fucsovics, a qualifier, in round 1. Kuznetsov qualified in Monte Carlo, while Kohli is 2-2 in his last four matches, and won a round in Monte Carlo.
Paire and Kohli have a 2-2 h2h, though Paire won the last two meetings, and Paire has a dark horse chance to reach the quarters if his game is on, he qualified in Monte Carlo and has played well at the challenger level, as mentioned. No matter if it’s Kohlschreiber or Paire in the quarters, Ferrer should reach the semis, he’s 2-0 against Kohli on clay (8-2 overall), and 3-0 overall against Paire.
Dark Horse: Benoit Paire
Albert Ramos, who I have reaching the quarters, is another dark horse candidate, but Paire gets the official designation because his run would be less likely, but more interesting. He has all the talent and the tools, but with his weak mental approach to the game, he slipped down the rankings, and now newly focused he seems to be working his way back, a run to the quarters in a weak section would be a great way to announce to the rest of the tennis world that he’s back in the game.
Cilic famously won the US Open final over Nishikori, but Kei won their clay court meeting in Barcelona, and he’s an overall 5-3 h2h leader, given the fact Nishikori is stroking the ball, while Cilic is just returning from injury, Kei is the fave.
Nadal just beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo, and almost always has, so again he’s the pick.
Final:
Nadal d. Nishikori
This is the matchup just about everyone wants this week, and I have a feeling they will get it, Nadal has a 7-0 h2h on his side, though their only clay court meeting was basically a draw as Nishikori took the first set and then hurt himself and had to retire midway through the third set in Madrid. He also has all the positive history in Barca on his side, and home fans, but Nishikori has been rising while Nadal has been in decline over the past 18 months, and Nishikori is now ranked higher than the Spanish veteran. Both players are pure ball strikers, while Nadal hits with tons more spin of course, and both fly movement wise, it’s a more even matchup than the h2h would suggest, but I feel like Nadal, who showed signs of improvement in Monte Carlo, will find a way to get it done and take the title this week.
BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy
ATP World Tour 250
Bucharest, Romania
April 20-April 26, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gilles Simon (13)
2: Gael Monfils (15)
3: Ivo Karlovic (22)
4: Lukas Rosol (33)
Three top 30, and six top 40 players are in the Bucharest field, which is solid given how big Barcelona is on the other side of Europe.
Troicki is more accomplished than Gimeno-Traver, who just reached his first ATP final in Casablanca and he has a 5-0 head to head edge (3-0 on clay including 2-0 last year), but still DGT playe some surprisingly good tennis to reach that Casablanca final, and should have some positive momentum. Troicki is an even 2-2 in his last four, and that pretty much sums up his 2015 season thus far, some good results with losses mixed in, and he’s still looking to do better. He should win, but an upset is possible.
Borna Coric vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Stako crushed a listless Coric in Zagreb 2 and 4 earlier this season, but Coric has been improving since that loss, and he comes off a tough loss to Alex Dolgopolov in 3 sets in Monte Carlo. Stako lost to Tomas Berdych and is 1-3 in his last four, though he was playing some of the best tennis of his career earlier in the year. Given this is clay, Coric should win, but who knows if that h2h will hang over his head.
(7)Jiri Vesely vs. Diego Schwartzman
Vesely and Schwartzman, two young guns, have never met, and both can play their best tennis on clay. Vesely snapped an atrocious losing streak an reached the semis in Casablanca, but he promptly lost in Monte Carlo to Juan Monaco, while Schwartzman qualified and lost to Jeremy Chardy in the opening round. Vesely is favord, and more accomplished, but DSS has a great chance and I have him winning this matchup personally.
Ivan Dodig vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
AHM is nearly a top 50 player now, as the Austrian journeyman has been outdoing himself, primarily on clay, this year. Dodig, who has won twice, and lost twice to the Austrian, is still languishing just inside the top 100, though he has the skill to be much better than that. AHM is 4-2 in his last six, while Dodig is playing his first tournament since a gut wrenching loss to David Ferrer in an Indian Wells thriller. Dodig showed flashes of renewed top 50 ability in that match, and it will be intriguing to see if that shows up in Bucharest,even with AHM the favorite.
Three time champ Gilles Simon is likely to get an interesting opening match with Janko Tipsarevic, who gets a wild card for this tournament, his second since returning to the tour after a lengthy injury layoff. Tipsarevic will need to beat a qualifier, but if the reaches the second round, just as he did in Houston, he’ll have a shot at upsetting Simon for just the third time in what would be their eleventh meeting. The clay h2h is 1-1, but Simon leads 8-2 in the overall h2h, and given form, Simon will be a strong favorite. Simon is 6-3 in his last three tournaments, and has only lost to top 10 players (Ferrer x2 including Monte Carlo, and Nadal) in that span. Look for Simon to beat another Serb, Viktor Troicki, who he has a 5-0 h2h with, in the quarters. Troicki will need to beat DGT and the struggling Denis Istomin or a qualifier.
3 seed Ivo Karlovic isn’t the favorite to reach the semis in his section, that would be Borna Coric most likely, presuming he can beat Stakhovsky. While he isn’t going to be used to the Karlovic serve, as one would expect, clay slows it down to some extent, and thus it’s Dr. Ivo’s worst surface, and the one Coric is most likely to beat him on. Below Coric/Stakhovsky/Karlovic is Vesely/Schwartzman, along with former champ Florian Mayer, and Malek Jaziri. Mayer won his comeback match against Mikhail Youzhny in Monte Carlo before losing to Marin Cilic in 3 sets, and given he played pretty well, I have him beating both Jaziri an Schwartzman to setup a quarterfinal with Coric. It will be youth and form against experience, and wit, as funky flo is a difficult player to deal with given his wonky, tactically smart gamestyle. I’m going with the youth and talent of Coric to shine through at this 250, and have him reaching the semis.
Monte Carlo semifinalist Gael Monfils, who beat both Roger Federer and Grigor Dimitrov in the rich man’s paradise will start his Bucharest campaign against a player in terrible form, either the should be retired Mikhail Youzhny, or the challenger player Marius Copil awaits. Even if he’s fatigued, as it seems he was in his Monte Carlo semi, I still expect him to win that. Either AHM/Dodig or Simone Bolelli/Andrey Golubev await in the quarters. Given this is clay, Bolelli should prevail over Golubev. Bolelli and AHM have a 1-1 h2h, but Bolelli lost to Victor Estrella in Monte Carlo and is playing poorer than AHM at the moment, so I have a Haider-Maurer vs. Monfils quarter, with Monfils advancing unless he injures himself or is too tired to stand.
Former champ Lukas Rosol will open against Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez likely in the quarters. Rosol beat GGL in the 2013 final and he comes off a round 1 loss in Monte Carlo. GGL was shocked by Lamine Ouahab in Casablanca and is on a two match losing streak, in fact hes just 2-5 since winning the Zagreb title. GGL will need to snap that losing streak an beat a qualifier, then Steve Darcis/Marcos Baghdatis to reach the quarters. In an interesting stats note, Baghdatis hasn’t won a clay match since 2012, and Darcis, though he’s a serve and volleyer, is actually relatively solid on the surface. GGL is 3-1 against Darcis, and thus he’s still the fave even with his struggles. Rosol is streaky and very unreliable, but I’m going with the h2h and have him beating GGL for a spot in the semis.
Coric could take the title this week, Stakhovsky, a serve and volleyer, Karlovic, a big server, and possibly Mayer, a funky finesse technician all present unique matchup challenges, but Coric has a well rounded game, and the youthful energy to confront ech challenge and at least reach the semis. The reliability, yet blandness of Simon, is its own frustrating challenge, and he’s had such success at the tournament before, but you never know with Gillou, and likewise, Monfils, or anyone else on the bottom half is beatable if Borna plays well and his opponents do not, we could well see a teenage ATP champion this week.
Predictions
Semis:
Simon d. Coric
Monfils d. Rosol
As mentioned, Coric will need to be patient against Simon, and I’m not sure he can manage that quite yet, in their Marseille h2h meeting, Coric struggled at the start, took the second, but then lost in three, plus he should be more fatigued, thus I give Simon the edge.
Monfils won a Davis Cup match against Rosol, and this tournament is on his racquet given how well he played in Monte Carlo, if he shows interest, he should be a near lock to reach the final, as nobody is near his level on the bottom half.
Final:
Simon d. Monfils
Simon beat Monfils in Marseille this year, and also won their clay court meeting (5-1 h2h), they play what is one of the highest average rally length matchups in tennis, and though Monfils should win Bucharest this week given his level, I don’t trust him enough, and I’m going with the more reliable Simon, especially given the h2h, and the win this year.
Tennis Atlantic 