2017 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The early part of the 2017 ATP World Tour season has drawn battle lines for the first Masters 1000 tournament this year. The ATP World Tour’s best (and the WTA’s best) have once again returned to the California desert for one of the biggest tournaments of the season. Veterans, young guns, and everyone in between will face off in the coming week, and here is your look at the action to come.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Indian Wells, CA, USA
March 9-19, 2017
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $6,993,450
Top 8 seeds (ATP Rankings in parentheses) (32 seeds get first round byes)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Kei Nishikori (5)
5: Rafael Nadal (6)
6: Marin Cilic (7)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)
8: Dominic Thiem (9)
Defending finalist Milos Raonic is missing, also notably absent from the first Masters 1000 of the year is Spanish veteran David Ferrer and French veterans Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon.
First round matches to watch:
Damir Dzumhur vs. Ryan Harrison
Twice an ATP quarterfinalist this season, Bosnia’s best player Dzumhur is rounding into form, but his run in IW is likely to end early because he drew the red hot Ryan Harrison in the opening round. More experienced, and more focused than ever, Harrison claimed an ATP title in Memphis and is relying on an effective forehand and aggressive tennis to win matches. He’s been playing well stateside and with the crowd behind him he should win this intriguing match.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Viktor Troicki
Troicki is 3-0 in the h2h against Dolgopolov but he’s lost three straight matches, while Dolgopolov won an ATP title on clay not that long ago. Both players can make some fantastic shots, and both focus and fitness will be a factor in this one. Dolgopolov has more upside here, but a steadier Troicki should have a slight edge.
Benoit Paire vs. (WC)Taylor Fritz
Benoit Paire enters IW on a four match losing streak. He has the talent to turn things around and make a run, but he may be sapped of confidence, giving young American Taylor Fritz a chance at a solid tour victory in this one. Fritz has struggled early in 2017, but Paire’s one dimensional game may result in a chance for him to find some momentum and kick start his season. With the fans behind him, as I have Fritz posting the win.
Murray’s Quarter
Andy Murray is world #1, but he has a relatively poor record in Indian Wells, particular compared to the other Masters tournaments. The British hero should make quick work of qualifier Vasek Pospisil or Rendy Lu though, and also defeat either Frances Tiafoe/Dusan Lajovic or a struggling Feliciano Lopez in the third round. The young Tiafoe has a great shot at the third round given that Lajovic isn’t an elite player and Lopez has lost three straight. Pospisil should beat Lu.
Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut should be good enough to defeat Adrian Mannarino/Juan Monaco, and also big server Reilly Opelka in round 3. Standing in the American wild card’s path to the third round is qualifier Peter Gojowczyk, and seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who much prefers clay. If he plays his best, particularly on serve, Opelka is a threat in this draw, and only RBA’s rock solid return game should stop him.
David Goffin and Ryan Harrison should face off in a big third round match. Harrison needs only to defeat Dzumhur and dirtballer Albert Ramos, while Goffin will face Russian young gun Karen Khachanov or veteran Tommy Robredo. Twice an ATP finalist this season, Goffin should ease past a struggling Khachanov, but in the third round I’ll take Harrison in an upset given the momentum behind RH right now.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can’t complain about his path to the late stages of the tournament. Neither Konstantin Kravchuk or Fabio Fognini are much of a threat right now, and the toughest hard court player in his section is the unseeded Martin Klizan, a streaky ball basher. Also here are dirtballers Thiago Monteiro and Pablo Cuevas. After capturing two titles this season, Tsonga has his sights set on Masters success, and he should ease past Klizan to reach the round of 16.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka crashed out of Dubai, and his section features Dubai semifinalist Robin Haase in round 2 (presuming Haase beats clay courter Paolo Lorenzi), with either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Troicki/Dolgopolov looming in round 3. Despite playing poorly in Dubai and having just one match since Australia, Wawrinka is still good enough to make a run in IW if his backhand finds its groove. I have Kohlschreiber beating Troicki before falling to Wawrinka in round 3. Haase is also an interesting dark horse here but he’s been unable to string together weeks of great tennis consistently in his career.
Tomas Berdych also hasn’t posted great results this season, but with Bernard Tomic reeling after losing four straight, and the big serving Ivo Karlovic the only other major threat to his early chances, the Czech veteran should reach the round of 16. I have Tomic falling to American Bjorn Fratangelo in round 1, Karlovic should beat Acapulco quarterfinalist Yoshihito Nishioka or Elias Ymer, both of whom came from qualifying. With Karlovic struggling as well, Berdych should beat him in round 3.
Fan favorite Gael Monfils and American favorite John Isner should square off in round 3, but first Monfils will need to defeat the in-form qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili, or qualifier Darian King. Isner will need to defeat Jordan Thompson or fading veteran Dmitry Tursunov. Isner has not had a good season, and although he should beat Thompson, Monfils is a clear favorite to reach the round of 16. Watch out for Memphis finalist Basilashvili here as well.
Young Dominic Thiem has a section he should dominate. Neither Jeremy Chardy or qualifier Radu Albot are playing well enough to threaten him in round 2. The seed Mischa Zverev has been in awful form since Australia, and both Joao Sousa and Diego Schwartzman are transitioning from clay. Thiem should defeat Chardy and Sousa to reach the round of 16.
Nishikori’s Quarter
Despite a potentially tricky path, Japanese #1 Kei Nishikori should reach at least the last 16. Nishikori will face Dan Evans or Dustin Brown, with big server Gilles Muller likely to follow, presuming Muller defeats Renzo Olivo/Jiri Vesely. Evans has been poor the last few weeks, and while Nishikori is not in form, he should be able to find some form and beat Evans and Muller.
Acapulco champion Sam Querrey is in great form right now, but will face the pressure of backing up his run down in Mexico against an American in round 2, either Stefan Kozlov or Donald Young. Lucas Pouille will face Santiago Giraldo or J.L. Struff for a spot in the third round opposite Querrey. Querrey served well in Acapulco and he’s never lost to Young (2-0 h2h). He should beat the x2 semifinalist in 2017, Young, then I have him defeating an in-form Lucas Pouille, after Pouille beats Struff.
One of the best matches of the tournament should be a third round clash between Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock. Both fan favorites, they are in excellent form, playing the best tennis of their careers, and only Borna Coric/Henri Laaksonen, and Daniil Medvedev/Mikhail Youzhny stand in their way. Dimitrov should defeat Medvedev, Sock should defeat Coric, and then their 17-2 and 12-2 tour records this season respectively should go head to head. Sock has a 2-1 h2h edge, but I feel Dimitrov is narrowly the better player in this one.
After reaching the semis in Acapulco, Marin Cilic has an easy path to the round of 16. Cilic needs only to defeat Fritz/Paire, and one of Malek Jaziri/Nicolas Mahut/Marcel Granollers to make it to that fourth round stage. I have Cilic beating Fritz and Jaziri in his first two matches. Granollers has had a poor season and Mahut is not playing great right now.
Djokovic’s Quarter
Novak Djokovic already has two losses on the season, but he’s still bidding for a fourth straight and sixth overall IW title. Djokovic has not been at the top of his game this season, which could create opportunity for Juan Martin Del Potro in round 3, presuming JMDP puts away either a struggling Andrey Kuznetsov or countryman Federico Delbonis. Even with Djokovic’s outlook in question, Del Potro lost a three setter to him in Acapulco, and although I expect them to battle, Djokovic should again have the upper hand.
This quarter of the draw is by far the best. Young guns Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev should have a big third round clash, as long as Zverev finishes off qualifier Julien Benneteau or Facundo Bagnis, and Kyrgios defeats qualifier Marius Copil or Horacio Zeballos. Kyrgios has two semifinals this season, and a win over Djokovic. Zverev has a tour title this season. Having never met at the ATP or Challenger tour level before, it’s hard to predict the winner. However on hard courts I have Kyrgios beating Copil and Zverev, after Zverev beats Benneteau.
Roger Federer suffered a stunning Dubai early defeat, but the four time IW champion has a relatively easy path to the round of 16 as long as Steve Johnson doesn’t pull a monumental upset. Federer will face over 30 straggler Dudi Sela, or 36 year old journeyman Stephane Robert in round 2, while Johnson will likely draw Kevin Anderson, looking for his first win back from injury against qualifier Federico Gaio. Johnson has been a model of consistency at reaching quarterfinals or semifinals this season, but his upside is less than Federer who hits forehand and serves better, both of Johnson’s strengths.
Acapulco finalist Rafael Nadal and Dubai finalist Fernando Verdasco are set to clash in round 3, renewing their rivalry. Nadal needs only to defeat another Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, or Argentine Guido Pella in round 2. Verdasco should draw serve and volleyer Pierre-Hugues Herbert, presuming Herbert defeats a struggling Thomaz Bellucci. Verdasco has the game to beat Nadal, but Nadal has had a great hard court season thus far, and I would not want to face him right now. A three-time champion in Indian Wells, Nadal has a shot at making it four, and should reach the round of 16 to keep his hopes alive.
Dark Horses: Ryan Harrison, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Sam Querrey, Juan Martin Del Potro
I have Harrison upsetting Goffin to reach the round of 16, he’ll have a shot against Tsonga as well, having found renewed focus and belief in his tennis. Basilashvili has it tough against Monfils but if he wins that match the quarterfinals will be within his sights. Querrey has to beat Young and Pouille just to reach the last 16, and Nishikori is tough at that point, but the California boy can pull it off. Del Potro also has a difficult draw with Djokovic and Kyrgios/Zverev back to back. The former slam champion certainly has the shots to win those matches though.
Predictions
Round of 16 Murray d. Bautista Agut
Tsonga d. Harrison
Wawrinka d. Berdych
Thiem d. Monfils
Dimitrov d. Cilic
Querrey d. Nishikori
Nadal d. Federer
Djokovic d. Kyrgios
The Men’s quarterfinalists in the top half should stay true to form, as Murray and Tsonga have clear edges in their matches. Wawrinka has dominated Berdych in recent years, and Thiem leads Monfils 2-0 in the h2h.
Cilic has a 3-1 edge on Dimitrov but I can’t go against the Bulgarian’s form. Querrey has four wins against Nishikori, and form actually favors him right now. Nadal, even on a hard court, should have a narrow edge against Federer, their AO final aside, Nadal has consistently been at a higher level this season. Djokovic lost to Kyrgios in Acapulco, but he’s more likely to get revenge than Kyrgios is at winning twice in a row against an elite player.
Quarters Murray d. Tsonga
Thiem d. Wawrinka
Dimitrov d. Querrey
Nadal d. Djokovic
Murray has won five straight meetings against Tsonga, Wawrinka has a 2- h2h against Thiem, but Thiem is playing better right now in the battle of one-handed backhands. Dimitrov has never lost to Querrey (2-0), and despite not having defeated Djokovic on a hard court since 2013, Nadal has simply been better than the Serbian superstar this season. Indian Wells isn’t the fastest court in the world, and that gives Nadal a better shot than at some venues. I’ll call the upset.
Semis Murray d. Thiem
Nadal d. Dimitrov
Murray and Nadal have dominated Thiem and Dimitrov respectively, and although it would be nice to get someone over than the big four in a Masters final, it all likelihood a mix of Murray, Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer will make-up the 2017 IW final.
Final Murray d. Nadal
Despite a substantive h2h edge for Nadal, Murray is the best player in the world right now, especially on hard courts. He has his struggles, but overall Murray is simply better than Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Federer right now. Now is as good a time as any for him to win his first IW title.
2016 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 ATP Masters series calendar kicks off with the joint ATP/WTA event in sunny Indian Wells, CA, with most of the world’s best players participating.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Indian Wells, CA, USA
March 10-20, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $6,134,605
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses) (32 seeds receive first round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Kei Nishikori (6)
6: Tomas Berdych (7)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Richard Gasquet (10)
Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Kevin Anderson, Marcos Baghdatis, and Fabio Fognini are among notable names missing from this Masters tournament.
Ernests Gulbis is ranked outside the top 70, but the big hitting Latvian can still have moments of greatness, and he has a 2-1 h2h edge over his first round opponent Garcia-Lopez. GGL has lost three straight matches, and really could use a win in this one, expect a competitive contest with Gulbis having a slight edge.
Vasek Pospisil vs. (WC)Jared Donaldson
It’s been a disappointing year thus far for young American Jared Donaldson. He has just three match wins, and no main draw wins through March. Vasek Pospisil has also had a miserable year with just two match wins all season (2-6 record). Pospisil has a big serve and he’s higher ranked, thus he’s the favorite, but both guys need spring renewal in Indian Wells.
Lukas Rosol vs. Adrian Mannarino
The big hitting Rosol is 3-1 against Mannarino on hard courts, and he’s had an inconsistent year thus far. Mannarino has a pair of ATP quarterfinals on his resume, but his game isn’t a great matchup against Rosol, and he’s likely the underdog in this style contrast.
A battle of teenagers, Tiafoe has a pair of challenger quarterfinals this year as he is working his way up on tour. Fritz has risen into the top 80 with an ATP final (Memphis) and a quarterfinal (Acapulco). Both have a bright future, and could be the two stars of American tennis within a few years, in this matchup though, Fritz is a clear favorite.
(Q)Tim Smyczek vs. (WC)Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro made a successful return to the ATP tour in Delray Beach, where he reached the semifinals. Smyczek qualified, and has a quarterfinal in Delray Beach as well. Del Potro is the better player, and should be the favorite, but Smyczek is a good form test for him, and his wrist.
Borna Coric vs. Lucas Pouille
Borna Coric hasn’t been in great form since he reached an ATP final at the start of the season. The young Croatian is a great talent though, and should be able to outpace Pouille and his powerful forehand. Pouille is seeking an ATP breakthrough in a big tournament like this, and he’ll take his chances in this match between young guns.
Delray Beach finalist Rajeev Ram will put his serve and volley game up against qualifier Noah Rubin. The young Rubin has a bright future, and American tennis fans should be sure to check out his game. He’s a bit of an underdog in this match, but it could go either way.
Top Half:
Djokovic’s quarter
Novak Djokovic had a tough time in Davis Cup play over the weekend, and retired with an eye infection at his last tournament in Dubai. With that said, when he’s healthy the world #1 is practically impossible to stop, as he’s proven at tournaments prior to Dubai over the past few months. Presuming good health, Djokovic should get past qualifier Bjorn Fratangelo, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili before running into #27 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round. Kohlschreiber is 10-5 on the season and went 2-0 in Davis Cup action over the weekend. The veteran’s solid recent hard court form should give him an edge over Denis Kudla or Denis Istomin in round 2. Istomin hasn’t won a match this season, and Kudla has lost three straight. Djokovic is 4-0 against Kohli on hard courts and should advance to the fourth round.
#14 seed Roberto Bautista Agut is on track to face Djokovic in the 4th round. RBA is 16-4 on the season, and has been playing the tennis of his career. He’ll open with either Mikhail Youzhny or Aljaz Bedene, most likely the in-form Youzhny, with #18 seed Feliciano Lopez likely to follow. The Dubai semifinalist Lopez will face Gulbis/Garcia-Lopez round 2. Lopez won their only h2h meeting but given his recent form RBA has an edge.
#7 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face qualifier Vincent Millot, or wild card Mackenzie McDonald in his opening match. Tsonga has struggled as of late and he should be on upset alert against American Sam Querrey. The 28 year old is 11-4 on the tour this year with two ATP semifinals, and an ATP final in recent weeks. Querrey will be the favorite against Jiri Vesely or Thiemo De Bakker in his first match. Tsonga and Querrey are 1-1 in the h2h on hard courts.
#11 seed Dominic Thiem is set to face Querrey/Tsonga in the round of 16. Thiem has 2 ATP titles, and a 10-3 record this season. He’s making a push for a top 10 ranking at 22 years old, and will be a favorite against either Pierre- Hugues Herbert or Jozef Kovalik in round 2, both are qualifiers, with Herbert likely better on a hard court. #21 seed Jack Sock should defeat either qualifier Michael Berrer, or Juan Monaco. Thiem beat Sock last year in Miami, and he’ll be the favorite once more in round 3.
Nadal’s quarter
#4 seed Rafael Nadal is just 8-4 this year, and playing well below his usual lofty standards. With that said, he’s still a likely favorite against either Gilles Muller or Victor Estrella in round 2, with both players in poor form as of late. Nadal is likely to face Martin Klizan in round 3. The Rotterdam champion is a big hitter who has been in good form, and he should dispatch Fernando Verdasco in round 2. Verdasco opens with qualifier Peter Polansky. Klizan has a hard court win over Nadal, and Rafa should be on upset alert, but I still give him an edge to prevail due to his experience and fight.
A battle between the veteran Gilles Simon, and Grigor Dimitrov is likely to conspire in the third round for the right to face Nadal/Klizan. Dimitrov is likely to open with young gun Alexander Zverev, Zverev is rising fast with an ATP semifinal and quarterfinal this season. He opens with serve and volleyer Ivan Dodig. Dimitrov is a solid 12-5 on the season, and should get past that matchup to face Simon. Gilles hasn’t been great this year (4-5), but he should defeat Donaldson/Pospisil, as he just beat Pospisil in Davis Cup. Dimitrov was 0-4 against Simon until he beat him in Brisbane this year, and he should beat him again to reach the fourth round.
American #1 John Isner is set to have a good tournament on North American hard courts. The hard serving big man should defeat either Andreas Seppi or Donald Young to setup a third round match with Benoit Paire. Paire has two ATP semis this year but is wildly inconsistent. His first opponent will be Rosol or Mannarino. Paire and Rosol have met twice this year on hard courts, and split meetings. Isner is 1-0 against Paire on hard courts, and a better player on the surface.
#5 seed Kei Nishikori comes off a Davis Cup weekend to face either Mikhail Kukushkin or Daniel Munoz De La Nava first up. Kei is 11-4 on the season with 1 ATP title, he’s been slightly disappointing, but he should roll past Kukushkin and setup a third round match with Southern California native Steve Johnson. Johnson has struggled to a 3-6 record this year, but IW is his home tournament, and hard courts are his best surface. He should defeat Alexander Sarkissian or John Millman in round 2 as Millman hasn’t been in great form either. Nishikori is 3-0 against Johnson.
Bottom Half:
Murray’s Quarter
The British #1 opens with either Damir Dzumhur or Marcel Granollers. Andy Murray should handle that with ease, and also slip past Joao Sousa in the third round as he has a routine early draw. Sousa opens with Santiago Giraldo or Federico Delbonis as this section is full of players who prefer clay. Sousa is looking for his first ATP win since the Aussie open, where he lost to Murray in round 3.
Gael Monfils and Nick Kyrgios should setup a star studded third round matchup for the right to face Murray. Monfils opens with either Evgeny Donskoy or Pablo Carreno Busta, both of whom are well below his level, while Kyrgios will face either Hyeon Chung or Albert Ramos. Monfils has a lone h2h win over Kyrgios, and both are in great form (9-3 for Monfils, and 10-2 for Kyrgios). I give Monfils a slight edge to advance given Kyrgios has been struggling with back problems.
Aussie open semifinalist Milos Raonic returns from an injury to face either Nicolas Almagro or Inigo Cervantes in his first match. Raonic is a dangerous player on hard courts and already has an ATP title this year. If he stays aggressive, and doesn’t have too much rust he should do some damage in the draw and slide past Bernard Tomic in the third round. Tomic, the #17 seed, opens with Ram/Rubin, and should defeat most likely Ram once again. Raonic beat Tomic in Brisbane this year and should do so again if he’s fit.
Tomas Berdych opens with either Smyczek or Del Potro, and unless Del Potro is rapidly improving, the Czech should prevail. Berdych retired injured in Davis Cup play over the weekend, but if that was precautionary he should defeat Borna Coric or Thomaz Bellucci, most likely the young Coric in round 3. Bellucci is just 1-3 on hard courts this year. Berdych will be a heavy favorite against Coric if healthy.
Dubai champion Stan Wawrinka continues to be in the top tier of the men’s game. His gifted one hand backhand has won him many matches, and he should slip past either Dmitry Tursunov or Acapulco quarterfinalist Illya Marchenko, with Tursunov returning from injury. The 13-2 Wawrinka should face Jeremy Chardy in round 3, but I have Andrey Kuznetsov, an improving Russian player, defeating qualifier Marco Trungelliti, and Chardy to reach the third round. Kuznetsov beat Chardy at the Aussie Open this year and has two ATP quarterfinals to his name this season. Wawrinka should ease past Kuznetsov at that point.
David Goffin has a draw that he should be able to get to the fourth round in. Goffin opens with Fritz/Tiafoe, who could knock him off, but his third round match against one of Pablo Cuevas/Kyle Edmund/Guido Pella is an easy one. Cuevas isn’t a hard court player, but he’s been in great form as of late, and that should help him past Edmund, who has been stuck at the challenger level most of this year. Goffin is 8-4 on the year.
Richard Gasquet has his own chance to make noise at IW, but he’ll need to be fit and fresh to face his serve and volleying countryman Nicolas Mahut, or qualifier Renzo Olivo. Mahut can pull off upsets, but the real test will come for Gasquet in round 3 against Alexandr Dolgopolov, the #26 seed. Dolgopolov opens with Diego Schwartzman or Robin Haase, and he should ease into the third round. Gasquet leads the h2h with Dolgo 2-0, Dolgo has two quarterfinals and a semifinal on the ATP tour this year, but Gasquet has a title and a quarterfinal in his own right. It will be an exciting match, but I have the veteran Frenchman advancing.
Marin Cilic is the most likely opponent for Gasquet/Dolgopolov, Cilic opens with either qualifier Ryan Harrison or Dusan Lajovic. Cilic is a rather pedestrian 9-7 on the year, but hard courts are a favorable surface, and Harrison isn’t likely to pull the upset. Viktor Troicki or Leonardo Mayer will be his third round opponent. Mayer opens with a winless Sam Groth, while Troicki struggled in Davis Cup play but his 13-6 on the season and has played great for parts of this year. Troicki has won the last five meetings against Cilic, but Cilic won the first four and has been in better form.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Dominic Thiem, John Isner, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Martin Del Potro
Thiem should beat Sock, and Tsonga/Querrey to reach the quarterfinals, Novak Djokovic is the worst opponent one could have, but if he’s not 100% Thiem could pull an upset. I have Isner reaching the semis, he tends to do well on North American hard courts and a late round path of Paire, Nishikori, and Nadal/Dimitrov is a winnable one, with all of those players showing shaky form as of late.
Dolgopolov needs to upset Gasquet and Cilic to make a deep run, but it’s quite possible he could do sow with his shotmaking game. Del Potro has to face Berdych in round 2, and he’ll likely go down in defeat, but JMDP showed a strong forehand and great serve in Delray Beach, and if he continues to improve, he should be a force on tour in the months to come.
Round of 16 Djokovic d. Bautista Agut
Thiem d. Querrey
Nadal d. Dimitrov
Isner d. Nishikori
Gasquet d. Cilic
Wawrinka d. Goffin
Raonic d. Berdych
Murray d. Monfils
Djokovic is 3-0 against RBA, Thiem beat Querrey in Acapulco, Nadal is 7-0 against Dimitrov, and Isner has split meetings against Nishikori. Gasquet is 2-0 against Cilic, Wawrinka is 3-0 against Goffin, Raonic is 3-1 on hard courts against Berdych in what will be a competitive match, and Murray is 2-1 against Monfils on hard courts.
Quarters Djokovic d. Thiem
Isner d. Nadal
Wawrinka d. Gasquet
Murray d. Raonic
Djokovic has a h2h win over Thiem, Isner is 0-6 against Nadal, but with Rafa in decline, I have him earning his first win over the Spaniard. Wawrinka vs. Gasquet should be interesting with how great their backhands are, but Wawrinka should be slightly better. Murray has won his last three meetings against Raonic, who is returning from injury.
Semis Djokovic d. Isner
Murray d. Wawrinka
Djokovic has five straight wins over Wawrinka, Murray has lost his last three meetings against Wawrinka, but I have him defeating Stan due the fact he’s fitter and fresher most likely for Indian Wells tennis.
Final Djokovic d. Murray
Djokovic has had a clear edge over Murray as of late, Andy will have his chances, but this tournament is Novak’s to lose. The four time, and twice defending champion Novak should take title #5 in IW.
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview and Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Indian Wells Preview
The first Masters event of the 2015 ATP World Tour Season is here, as it’s time for the celebrated, modern, BNP Paribas Open from the sweltering hard courts of the California desert in Indian Wells. I’m not as fond of Larry Ellison’s oasis in the desert as many fans and players are, but all the same the season is beginning to kick into high gear as all but a handful of the worlds best men’s tennis players will be battling for points, prize money and prestige over the next two weeks.
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
March 12-March 22, 2015
Prize Money: $5.381,235
Indian Wells put up even more cash this year, as prize money increased by over half a million dollars compared to 2014.
Top 8 seeds (All 32 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Rafael Nadal (3)
4: Andy Murray (4)
5: Kei Nishkori (5)
6: Milos Raonic (6)
7: Stan Wawrinka (7)
8: David Ferrer (8)
Notable players missing Indian Wells include a pair of top Frenchmen, Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who are joined in absence by David Goffin, Lleyton Hewitt, Leonardo Mayer, and Nicolas Almagro.
First round matchups to watch:
Jan–Lennard Struff vs. (WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Both players come off putting in hard work in the Davis Cup over the weekend. Kokkinakis helped lead Australia to a victory in their tie, while Struff put in a valiant effort but lost to Gilles Simon in 5 sets. Struff has a h2h win on clay, but he’s just 4-7 on the season in all competitive matches. Kokkinakis by contrast has been on the rise with a 12-5 record in the same span including three straight qualifications for ATP main draw events in Memphis, Delray Beach and Acapulco, all on hard courts. Struff should make this match closer than expected but the young gun Australian should prevail.
Kukushkin beat Pospisil at Indian Wells last year in straights, and he may be on track to do so again this year after two massive straight set wins over top 50 players Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi in Davis Cup over the weekend to help his nation clinch their tie. The unpredictable, and undersized ballstriker Kukushkin, who has an ATP hard court final on his resume this season (Sydney), snapped a four match losing streak with those Davis Cup wins. Pospisil by contrast went 1-1 in Davis Cup play, and has only won consecutive matches this year in one tournament, the Australian Open, resulting in an even .500 record. Pospisil certainly has the ability on this surface, but I’m endorsing the upset this time and picking Kukushkin to reach round 2.
Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Kyrgios, three years the junior of Kudla, should be able to beat the American wild card, but Denis has shown some good form at points this season, and Kyrgios is playing his first tournament since the Australian Open, having taken time off to recover from a back injury. Kyrgios is without a doubt the more talented player, but he will need to deal with the California weather conditions, and may have some rust in his game, so Kudla could give himself belief if he could strike while the iron is hot and get off to a confident start. All eyes will be on Kyrgios this year as he begins to play the Masters level full-time, and the journey this time around will begin with a young American on home soil, drawing even more attention the match. As we all know, Kyrgios feasts off the attention.
Querrey is 3-0, including 1-0 on outdoor hard against Stakhovsky, and that’s probably why he’s the bookies favorite for this one, but he’s been in terrible form but all but one tournament this season, with round 1 exits in every tournament but Memphis. Stako meanwhile had a top class month of February, reaching two 500 level quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Dubai, and a semifinal in Marseille sandwiched in between. The Californian Sam Q should be better adapted to the conditions, but I have Stakhovsky winning this one, perhaps quite comfortably. His game has been greatly improved this year overall based upon the two month sample size.
The American wild card Krajicek, who has had a career year in 2015, has another great shot at notching an upset over an ATP regular. Istomin happens to be in poor form, with just a 3-7 ATP record on the season. Krajicek by contrast qualified and reached the quarterfinals in Memphis, pushing Kei Nishikori to 3 sets, and also qualified in Acapulco. With the home crowd sure to be behind him, the former Texas A&M standout will still need to play his best to have a chance, but momentum, and venue favor him, and thus I have Krajicek, an unheralded American, into round 2 over Istomin.
Jack Sock vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A battle of baselining ball strikers, the 22 year old American Sock is returning from hip surgery, and this is his first tournament of 2015. The 31 year old Lu has had a decent season with two ATP hard court quarterfinals (Chennai and Delray) on his resume. Lu is never going to wow or shock, his game simply is what it is, good but not great, and relatively weaponless but reliable. Sock by contrast has a gifted forehand but has had to work develop the other parts of his game to compliment that natural gift. He’s matured at the ATP level over time, when previously opponents were able to exploit his weaker backhand and poor fitness, and before the hip surgery was on an upward trend overall. This is really just a form test for Sock, and Lu, given how reliably bland he is, is actually not the best matchup for a player coming back from injury, because he is likely to be steadier than his opponent who will be feeling his way back into ATP level matches. Lu should advance, likely in 3 sets.
Three time, and defending Indian Wells champ Novak Djokovic will open with the winner of Jiri Vesely vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Vesely has been in awful form since winning his maiden ATP title, and a Baghdatis victory should extend his losing streak to six straight matches, as Vesely also lost in Davis Cup over the weekend. The Cypriot veteran has been in good form overall this year with no opening round exits in any tournament, and he’s also 2-0 in the h2h record. Djokovic is 4-0 on hard courts against Baghdatis (7-0 overall with the last meeting taking place in 2012), and shouldn’t have any issue reaching the third round, where his Davis Cup teammate Viktor Troicki is likely to be his next opponent. Troicki, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup most recently, and has an ATP title along with two quarterfinals on his resume should defeat dirtballer Albert Ramos, and 25 seed Julien Benneteau who has been in poor form in singles this year. Benny has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts against Troicki but he has only won 1 match this season. Djokovic has dominated Troicki in the h2h, posting a 10-0 hard court record against the Serb who is two years his senior. I don’t expect Djokovic to drop a set before the round of 16.
16 seed Kevin Anderson likewise shouldn’t have too much competition going into the round of 16, Neither Federico Delbonis or Dusan Lajovic, his possible round 2 opponents are good hard court players. Anderson also had a good stroke of luck with the fact that the other seed in his section is 18 seed John Isner, the top American player. Isner, a former finalist at IW, has been in awful form this season, and suffered further blows to his confidence, and emotional well-being with two brutal Davis Cup losses in Glasgow that cost Team USA the tie. Isner is just 3-5 at the ATP level this year with egregious losses to James Ward most recently, and also Marinko Matosevic on home soil in Delray Beach, on outdoor hard.
I could see Isner losing to a qualifier (American Dennis Novikov or veteran Jurgen Melzer) in round 2, but if he does get through that match (he’s 1-2 on hard courts against likely round 2 opponent Melzer), a favorable h2h of 6-3 on hard courts against Anderson should at least give him hope, especially since he’s won the last four meetings between the pair. No matter, look for Anderson, who has an ATP final, and two ATP semifinals, all on hard courts, the most recent one coming in Acapulco, on his resume in 2015, to improve that h2h by 1 win, and setup a meeting with Djokovic.
David Ferrer has a flawless three ATP titles this season (Doha, Rio, Acapulco), and he has only lost one match on the season (to Kei Nishikori in Melbourne). He’s likely to get a rematch from Acapulco against 32 seed Bernard Tomic in round 3. Ferrer will need to defeat either Joao Sousa or Ivan Dodig in round 2 (Sousa in my bracket), while Tomic will need to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer or qualifier Borna Coric, most likely the qualifier Coric to set that up. Coric, who was coming off of Davis Cup duty, had to save match points to qualify for IW, and he was a semifinalist at the 500 level in Dubai. His match will Tomic will get a lot of attention, and it should be quality, but I feel Tomic is the more mature young gun, who is also in better form, and that along with being fresher should be enough to put the young Aussie over the young Croat. Tomic’s junkballing should also frustrate Coric.
As mentioned, Ferrer just beat Tomic in 3 sets in Acapulco, and prior to that Ferrer had won both their hard court meetings in 2 sets. The veteran Spaniard has been at his best thus far in 2015, and is a strong favorite to reach the last 16.
Marin Cilic, will begin his 2015 campaign in Indian Wells, coming off of a shoulder injury, and without any tournament play in 2015. The Croat, who had a major breakthrough in 2014, claiming the US Open title, his maiden slam, will get his first match against either Juan Monaco or Teymuraz Gabashvili. Gabashvili is on a four match losing streak, while Monaco has been in good form, all be it on South American clay. Cilic has a lone hard court h2h win 7 years ago against Monaco, and though rust is likely, and his form may be shaky, on a hard court surface, he should still be good enough to get past a declined Monaco. A more stern test is certain in the third round, as the Kokkinakis/Struff winner could be his opponent, or the unpredictable Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. First off, if Kokkinakis can get past Struff, and upset GGL, I feel his form will be good enough to also notch a top 20 win and upset Cilic, given the Croat number one is almost certain to be rusty. However, I also see GGL reaching the fourth round if he can beat Kokkinakis/Struff. GGL has beaten Cilic at Indian Wells before, and he has an ATP title among other good results this year. This is a hard to predict section, and in my own bracket I’m going with Garcia-Lopez over both Kokkinakis and CIlic to setup a round of 16 match with Ferrer, though either Cilic or Kokkinakis reaching the round of 16 would not shock me. I feel Kokkinakis may be emotionally spent from his Davis Cup triumph from 2 sets down, which was the key result that led to an Australian victory in the tie.
A one time finalist at Indian Wells, Andy Murray comes off doing a tremendous job in Davis Cup duty for team GB on indoor hard, having returned to the top 5 in the ATP rankings as well. Murray will have a difficult opening match against the Kukushkin/Pospisil winner, and should he show any signs of vulnerability, I could see Pospisil, or more likely Kukushkin pouncing and making it a match. Kukushkin has pushed Murray to three sets before, and as mentioned above, he was in peak form for Davis Cup while Murray has two h2h wins over Pospisil over the last two seasons, both close straight set matches. I’m not predicting an upset myself, but Murray’s opening match will be good viewing at minimum. Murray has had two early awful losses this year to Borna Coric in Dubai and Gilles Simon in Rotterdam, but his Davis Cup form was much better than those matches, and they are most likely aberrations rather than a worrying sign of things to come. Look for Murray to get past his third rounder as well, the seeded opponent would be Philipp Kohlschreiber, but Kohli is in poor form and really has been all year (3-6 on the season), most recently coming off Davis Cup play. American wild card Tim Smyczek has a nice chance at the third round, if he can get past ball striking grinder Benjamin Becker, and then upset Kohlschreiber. I have Becker in the third round in my own bracket, with wins over Smyczek and Kohlschreiber, his Davis Cup teammate. Becker most recently pushed Bernard Tomic to 3 sets in Acapulco. Murray should be untroubled by Becker or any other player though and reach the round of 16 this week.
14 seed Ernests Gulbis is in atrocious form. He hasn’t won a match in 2015, and he may be better off playing challengers to build his confidence at this point, rather than Masters events. I’m just about certain Gulbis will lose to either qualifier Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a veteran dirtballer, or Sam Groth in round 2. The big serving Groth has been steadily improving his game up to an ATP caliber level of play, and his rhythm on serve should frustrate a struggling Gulbis should they meet. With the qualifers placed, I’d place Groth into third round, with a shot at the round of 16, given that the other seed here is the 19 seed Fabio Fognini. Fogna has been in horrendous form on hard courts for months, and he most recently cost Italy their Davis Cup tie against Kazakhstan with a massive choke against challenger level player Alex Nedovyesov. I see Fognini struggling in a loss to either qualifier Mischa Zverev (who won the pre-qualifying tournament, then qualified) or Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino destroyed Fognini at the US Open last fall, and he posted an ATP semi in Delray, along with a final in Auckland as he’s an extremely streaky player to who can post big results and this lose consecutive matches early on in tournaments. Mannarino and Groth, which could be a very strange match for the third round of Masters event, have met twice prior, and split meetings on hard courts. Remarkably, I’d put Mannarino into the fourth round with a small edge in another difficult to predict section.
5 seed Kei Nishikori, who went 2-0 in Davis Cup play after reaching the final in Acapulco and winning Memphis in recent weeks, will open with the winner of Mardy Fish/Ryan Harrison. Nishikori beat Milos Raonic in Davis Cup, and appears to be streaking right now, having worked his way into the top 5, very much deserving that status. Fish/Harrison is one of the most over-hyped round 1 matches I’ve seen in quite some time, as it’s been given stadium 1 billing for Thursday. Fish hasn’t played a competitive tournament singles match since 2013, between psychological and health problems with his heart. Harrison meanwhile had one of the best results of his career with a run to the semifinals in Acapulco that included a win over top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov. I see no reason why Harrison wouldn’t routine Fish in a match that may end in a retirement, but Nishikori should beat him in round 2 and reach the third round, as he did in Memphis in 3 sets. As for his third round opponent, 28 seed Fernando Verdasco will face Dominic Thiem or qualifier James Duckworth in round 2. Duckworth is in great form, as he qualified after previously reaching a hard court challenger final in India. Still, Thiem is the superior talent and is likely to stave off the possible upset to setup a meeting with Verdasco. Verdasco and Thiem have never met, but Verdasco is perhaps slightly better at the moment, though his form has been very much average. Verdasco beat Nishikori in straights at the 2011 Aussie Open, but the tables have entirely turned since that match, and Nishikori is a much more complete player now, barring the conditions getting to him, I fully expect to see Kei into the round of 16.
12 seed Feliciano Lopez will open with Marinko Matosevic, whose form appears to be getting a bit better in recent weeks, or lucky loser Edouard Roger-Vasselin. I don’t expect Feli to have too much trouble reaching the round of 16 this week, as his third round opponent is most likely to be qualifier Thiemo De Bakker or Jarkko Nieminen in a weak section. Nieminen is decent, even at his age, on hard courts, while De Bakker, who is talented but a noted underachiever, appears to be near the cusp of a breakthrough back on the ATP stage, as he’s been doing well in ATP qualifying. Still, Lopez is better than every player in his section in terms of talent and form, and I have Lopez over De Bakker for a spot in the round of 16. The winner of Nieminen/De Bakker faces 20 seed Pablo Cuevas, who much prefers clay and comes off Davis Cup duty, in round 2. Interestingly for Lopez, he’s 0-1 against De Bakker on hard courts, and 1-3 against Nieminen likewise, he’s also had shock losses to Victor Estrella, Aljaz Bedene and Marsel Ilhan in 2015, all lower ranked journeymen (though he was sick against Ilhan in Dubai).
The three time former IW champion, Rafael Nadal, who seems to like the slow, high bouncing hard courts the venue offers up, will open up another hard court campaign against Igor Sijsling or qualifier Filip Krajinovic. Krajinovic surprisingly qualified on a hard court and has won three straight matches dating back to Davis Cup for Serbia, while Sijsling has lost four straight. I expect Nadal, who won a title on clay a couple of weeks ago in Buenos Aires, to cruise through to the third round no matter whom he faces in round 2. Rafa could get a bit of a contest from fellow lefty Donald Young at that stage. Young, who played poorly in Davis Cup, had a career month in February with an ATP final and an ATP semifinal in Delray and Memphis. He should be able to score wins over dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then a pedestrian Jeremy Chardy, who has been unfortunate to have some tough draws this season though his record is floating around .500 on the year. Nadal beat the American Young 6-1 6-3 at IW in 2008, though his hard court form has been shaky since this time last year (he hasn’t even reached a hard court semifinal since Miami 2014), he still should play well enough to get into the round of 16. Though Nadal isn’t really in the conversation for the champion of a hard court masters event right now, he’s still better than all but top 10 players on the surface as a general rule.
The section above Nadal featuring a pair of French seeds, Davis Cup hero Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet is intriguing. Simon should beat Tatsuma Ito or Malek Jaziri with ease (Ito should be favored over Jaziri given Jaziri has lost five straight matches while Ito has a challenger final and a challenger semi since the AO, and comes off of Davis Cup duty). While Gasquet is the favorite against one of two admirable veterans, qualifier Michael Berrer, or Victor Estrella. Berrer is retiring after this season, though the serve and volleying German has played well (beat Nadal in Doha, qualified for both Zagreb and IW), and Estrella comes off Davis Cup duty, and has won both his maiden ATP title (on clay), and a challenger title (on hard courts) this season. I have Estrella over Berrer, and then Gasquet over Estrella, though Estrella shocked Gasquet in Bogota on outdoor hard courts last season. Gasquet has two ATP quarterfinals and an ATP title this year, while Simon has a title and a semi. Gasquet leads the h2h with Simon on hard courts 4-1, and is more skilled and aesthetically pleasing than the defensively strong counterpuncher Simon. I expect a three setter, and while I picked Gasquet myself, a Simon win would not surprise me either.
6 seed Milos Raonic will get a chance at revenge if he faces Simone Bolelli in round 2, Bolelli beat him in Marseille this year (though Raonic won their meeting a week prior in Rotterdam). Bolelli has played well for points this year, but he played erratically, spraying errors in the Davis Cup for Italy over the weekend, and thus I don’t give him much of a chance against Raonic, though he should still beat Thomaz Bellucci, who struggled as well in Davis Cup for Brazil). The difference is Bellucci was playing on clay in his tie, and still played poorly, while Bolelli is superior on hard courts. Look for Raonic, who went for 1-1 in Davis Cup singles play for Canada over the weekend, to take out Santiago Giraldo or Alex Dolgopolov for a spot in the round of 16. Giraldo comes off Davis Cup duty, and hasn’t done much spectacular this year, while Dolgopolov is struggling compared to the form he was in this time last year. Dolgo will face qualifier Frank Dancevic before the 29 seed Giraldo who he has beaten twice on grass. Though Dolgo is unlikely to trouble Raonic, he has beaten Giraldo twice on grass and reached consecutive ATP quarterfinals in Delray Beach and Acapulco. Dolgo beat Raonic in the IW quarterfinals last year in their only meeting, but as mentioned, that was a vastly different Dolgo than his current self, and Raonic has proven himself to be reliable in the Masters series events against all but the top 10.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov, who took part in an exo at Madison Square Garden in New York on Wednesday night, is going to have some trouble in his opening match, as he will face the Kyrgios/Kudla winner. Kyrgios, assuming his form is ok (as we will find out from his match against Kudla) has to be the favorite given Dimitrov has been poor in ATP matches this year, including recent losses to Gilles Muller in Rotterdam and Ryan Harrison in Acapulco. Dimitrov has been lacking killer instinct, and passion with his tennis this year, two things that Kyrgios has in excess, meaning the Bulgarian’s chances are slim in my mind against the teenage Aussie. Look for Kyrgios to also blow past his third round opponent, as Dustin Brown and Andrey Golubev are both journeymen, with Golubev coming off of DC duty, and 17 seed Tommy Robredo has very much struggled this season. Robredo beat Kyrgios at the 2014 US Open but he’s just 3-5 on the season, and age may well be catching up to him.
Federer’s section:
Roger Federer, a four time Indian Wells champion, the defending finalist, and most recently, the champion in Dubai, will open his 2015 IW campaign against Jerzy Janowicz or Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, as he stares down a challenging draw if he is to reach at least the semifinals. Janowicz , who has an ATP final this year and played excellent in Davis Cup duty for Poland over the weekend, played him well on clay in Rome in 2013, and appears to be in improved form compared to his play in 2014. Still, one has to expect Federer to find a way past the big serving Polish number one, given how well the Swiss is playing himself. After that, Andreas Seppi, who upset him at the Australian Open, is his likely round 3 opponent. Seppi will face a veteran in round 2, as Mikhail Youzhny and qualifier Victor Hanescu will battle for the right to face the 30 seed. Youzhny has a slight 2-1 hard court h2h edge over the Romanian, though both players who are 30+, are greatly declined from their heyday in the 2000s. Hanescu has been reduced to playing ATP qualies, while Youzhny has just two wins this year. Surprisingly, Youzhny is 4-0 against Seppi on hard courts, including a win last year in Cincy, and the Italian did not play well in Davis Cup, but still he’s had a solid year already in 2015, and with a second week showing in Australia and an ATP final on his resume this year, he has to be trusted to right the ship. Still, look for Federer to get his revenge, perhaps comfortably, and dispatch Seppi for a spot in the round of 16.
15 seed Roberto Bautista Agut faces a draw that will have him face the Istomin/Krajicek winner in round 1, and then one of Sock/Lu or Gilles Muller (who replaced Leo Mayer in the draw as a seed) in round 3. I have RBA over Krajicek rather comfortably, and then over Muller as well, as Muller, who has played well in 2015, should be favored over Lu or Sock, as his serve should disrupt their rhythm and overwhelm them. Muller is 3-3 in his career on hard court against Lu, and he won their most recent meeting last year. Muller beat RBA at the AO this year, and he has won both their hard court meetings, but it’s a competitive matchup and RBA has two ATP semifinals on his record this year. I feel these courts suit his game well.
7 seed Stan Wawrinka will open with a slumping Robin Haase or qualifier Alex Bolt, who is making his ATP main draw debut against the Dutchman. I have Bolt over Haase given that Haase is 0-7 in 2015, while Bolt has an ATP challenger final and semifinal on his resume already and scored to quality wins in qualifying. Wawrinka has a very easy draw, as his round 3 opponent will be most likely the talented but erratic ballbasher Martin Klizan. Klizan opens with dirtballer Pablo Andujar, and then will face 27 seed Lukas Rosol, who is in the midst of a six match losing streak. Klizan in the third round is mostly just the luck of the draw, rather than being particularly deserved, and I don’t see Wawrinka dropping a set before the round of 16.
9 seed Tomas Berdych has a much more challenging path to the fourth round, he will face the Querrey/Stakhovsky winner round 2, and though he’s 4-0 on hard courts against Stako, including a win this year in Dubai in 3 sets, playing an in-form opponent is still never easy. Berdych has made the semifinals or better at every single tournament he’s played a match in this season, but has no titles from that, which is why he’s been posting quality results under the radar. Berdych against Steve Johnson or 21 seed Ivo Karlovic in round 3 promises to be interesting. Karlovic has an ATP title (Delray), quarterfinal and semifinal on his record this season, and is playing well. Johnson, who played his college tennis at USC and is very much a southern California boy, has been much improved under the radar, already posting three ATP quarterfinals this year, the most recent of which came in Delray Beach, where his run was ended by Karlovic. Johnson, like Berdych, has been posting his quality results under the radar, but at Indian Wells his matches are sure to get attention, including his opening contest with veteran Marcel Granollers who he beat in 3 sets in Tokyo on hard courts last year. Johnson has beaten Karlovic twice before, even with that Delray loss, and he should be motivated to do perform at his best in California, with that in mind I have him reaching the third round to face Berdych who he has never played before. He’ll have an upset chance, but Berdych has been a tough opponent to face this year, and thus the battle tested Czech should reach the round of 16.
Dark Horses: Thanasi Kokkinakis, Mikhail Kukushkin, Nick Kyrgios, Steve Johnson
Teens Kokkinakis and Kyrgios, could, or should in the case of Kyrgios, reach the round of 16. As mentioned, Kokkinakis will need to beat Struff and Garcia-Lopez, then likely Cilic to setup a meeting with Ferrer, who is likely to be too much for him at this stage in his career. Kyrgios, the other half of “special-K’ from Down Under, has a path of Kudla, Dimitrov, and then Robredo/Golubev/Brown, to setup a meeting with Raonic, who I also think will be too much (Raonic beat him at both Wimbledon and the French last year), but who knows, Kyrgios is known to rise the occasion.
Kukushkin would need to shock Murray, after scoring perhaps a minor upset over Pospisil, but should be pull off that double, he could go as far as the quarterfinals as the rest of the section is very weak (Smyczek/Kohlschreiber/Becker round 3, Mannarino/Groth/Fognini/Gulbis round of 16). Johnson has the toughest road to the round of 16, as he would need to beat big servers Karlovic and Berdych to earn the right to face a very tough opponent in Wawrinka.
Djokovic isn’t his best against big servers but he’s 2-1 against Anderson and still should advance in straights, Ferrer is in great form, and has dominated GGL in the h2h record, Murray has a weak section and shouldn’t drop a set to his round of 16 opponent, Nishikori is 2-1 on hard courts against Lopez and in better form, Raonic as mentioned has the edge on Kyrgios, Nadal dominates Gasquet in the h2h as the Frenchman has a mental block against him, Wawrinka has won the last five meetings against Berdych on a hard court, including a win in the Rotterdam final this year, and thus should win again if they meet. Last but not least, Federer beat RBA twice last year on a hard court.
Quarters: Djokovic d Ferrer
Nishikori d. Murray
Raonic d. Nadal
Federer d. Wawrinka
No matter how well Ferrer is playing, Djokovic is a bit of an unstoppable force, and he has won their last six hard court meetings since 2012, it could well be a three setter, and I wouldn’t count Ferrer out but Novak has to be the intelligent pick. Murray was 3-0 all on hard courts, before losing to Nishikori at the World Tour Finals last year, but I see that matchup as a 50/50 type of decision, and Nishikori should be slightly fresher going into it, with that in mind I have Kei slipping through, perhaps in 3.
Nadal is 4-0 on hard courts against Raonic, but Raonic is one of those top tier hard court players that should very much give this current version of Nadal trouble, with that in mind, I have him earning his first h2h win in the matchup to reach the semifinals. Wawrinka has never beaten his celebrated countryman in 11 hard court meetings, though their matches have become closer and more competitive over time, Federer should be the favorite and I see no weaknesses in his game that suggest to me he’ll lose before the final.
Semis: Djokovic d. Nishikori
Federer d. Raonic
Nishikori of course shocked Novak at the US Open, but Djokovic won both their hard court meetings after that, and given a neutral venue such as Indian Wells, Djokovic has to be something like a 60/40 favorite. Nishikori has a strong enough game to generate chances, and pounce if Novak struggles, but the match is still on Novak’s racquet as to how it will go. Given I’m buying into the Serbian’s form, I have him reaching the final this week.
Federer is 5-1, including a win in the Brisbane outdoor hard court final this year, against Raonic, and he’s striking the ball and moving well, so I have a feeling no matter how well Raonic can play on his serve, Federer will return too well and have too much to go down in defeat before the final.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer upset Djokovic in Dubai, a fast low bouncing surface compared to IW, but Djokovic has won both their IW meetings, including a thrilling final last year, in three sets. The surface should favor his game against the more aggressive Federer, who likes the courts quick, even though it’s a razor call when these two meet. If you watched that Dubai encounter, it’s not that Federer was flawless, as Djokovic generated chances and could have won that match, but he simply didn’t play well enough in key moments to do so, and that was the difference. These two know each other well and it’s never a surprise when they battle in what are always world class matchups, it’s simply a matter of execution on a certain day, rather than skill or style, as to who the winner will be.
2015 WTA Indian Wells (@BNPParibasOpen) Preview and Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
After an eventful first two months of the 2015 season, we reach the almost month long American hard court series, with back to back Premier tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami.
The first stop will be in the beautiful state of California for the BNP Paribas Open. The Indian Wells Tennis Garden will play host to the world’s best players from both the men’s and women’s tour with the main court holding over 16,000 spectators.
The BNP Paribas Open was originally a men’s only event in 1976. Thirteen years later the Garden would also host the women, albeit a week after the men’s tournament. In 1996, the decision was made to have the men’s and women’s tournaments run simultaneously, and it has since become one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world.
Among Indian Wells’ many accolades are being named the WTA’s Premier Tournament Of The Year five times – in 1997, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2013 – and the Premier Mandatory Tournament Of The Year in 2014; becoming the first event in the world to offer the Hawk-Eye challenge system on every match court in 2011; and becoming the first ATP/WTA combined tournament to distribute $1 million in prize money to each of its singles champions in 2012.
Previous champions include the likes of Steffi Graf, Martina Hingis, Martina Navratilova, Maria Sharapova and Monica Seles. Flavia Pennetta is the defending champion, as she overcame Agnieszka Radwanska in last year’s final.
Despite all the history, and the prestige of the event, the big story is the return of Serena Williams to Indian Wells.
The world number one hasn’t played in the tournament for 14 years, after the crowd heckled her and her sister Venus after alleged match fixing. It was also alleged that the reaction was also racially motivated. This led to the Williams sisters boycotting the event for 14 years; until now. Serena announced earlier this year that she will be returning to Indian Wells in an exclusive with TIME Magazine where she discussed both the happy and sad experiences from the event.
“It has been difficult for me to forget spending hours crying in the Indian Wells locker room after winning in 2001, driving back to Los Angeles feeling as if I had lost the biggest game ever – not a mere tennis game but a bigger fight for equality,” Williams wrote in her exclusive piece for TIME.
“I’m fortunate to be at a point in my career where I have nothing to prove. I’m still as driven as ever, but the ride is a little easier. I play for the love of the game. And it is with that love in mind, and a new understanding of the true meaning of forgiveness, that I will proudly return to Indian Wells in 2015.”
Venus however, will not return to the BNP Paribas Open this year.
For more information on the Williams sisters’ boycott of Indian wells and Serena’s return, please read my article posted yesterday.
BNP Paribas Open
Tier: Premier Mandatory
Location: Indian Wells, USA
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $ 5,381,235
Date: March 11th- March 22nd
Top eight seeded players (Ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Maria Sharapova (2)
3. Simona Halep (3)
4. Caroline Wozniacki (5)
5. Ana Ivanovic (6)
6. Eugenie Bouchard (7)
7. Agnieszka Radwanska (8)
8. Ekaterina Makarova (9)
The notable exception is Petra Kvitova who withdrew from the tournament due to fatigue. Otherwise the top players are all in action, which should lead to an exciting tournament.
Note: There are 32 seeded players in the draw, all of which receive a first round BYE
Julia Goerges vs Heather Watson:
Britain’s Heather Watson made a fantastic start to 2015 by winning the Hobart International tournament just before the Australian Open. However, the 22 year old hasn’t been able to capitalise on that momentum, only winning one match since. Goerges on the other hand has had a good start to the year, winning more often than not. That includes a round four appearance at the Australian Open where she lost to Ekaterina Makarova. These two previously met on the clay courts of Roland Garros three years ago, and it was The German who came out on top in straight sets. Watson’s form since Hobart hasn’t convinced me, but this is tennis and anything can happen. Expect the Brit to try counter Goerges’ power and remain consistent. The German will look to use her power to overwhelm Watson, forcing short balls and errors. It’s hard not to back Goerges given their respective forms, but if The 26 year old is spraying errors, except Watson’s consistency to shine through.
Anna Schmiedlova vs Lauren Davis
Two youngsters ranked within two places of each other, both looking to play their way into form, and one of them is American? Sounds like an enticing Indian wells opener to me. Schmiedlova vs Davis might be a match-up you see more of in the future, but this is their first ever meeting, meaning we have little to go by when it comes to deciding the winner. Schmiedlova recently made the final of Rio, but lost to Sara Errani in straight sets. The 20 year old hasn’t won a match since the clay court event in Brazil, losing both her opening round matches in Mexico. Davis hasn’t won since the Australian Open, albeit she has only played two matches since the first Grand Slam of the year. No matter which way it ends up going, this match should be close and will likely go the distance. The reward will be a round two clash with Jelena Jankovic.
(WC) Taylor Townsend vs (WC) Bethanie Mattek-Sands
One for you American fans out there. Taylor Townsend is younger than yours truly, and is in the top 100, making her one of the brightest prospects on tour. Mattek Sands is 11 years older and vastly more experienced, and she’s much better than her 187 ranking suggests. The 29 year old suffered an injury last year, which saw her ranking plummet from top 50 to outside the top 100. Townsend is still very young and learning her way around the tour, therefore the 18 year old isn’t yet the complete product. I expect Mattek-Sands’ experience to shine through as I don’t believe Townsend is ready to handle the pressure of the big crowd at Indian Wells yet.
Serena’s Quarter
The world number one’s triumphant return to Indian Wells will be met by the crafty Monica Niculescu or Aleksandra Krunic. The focus here won’t be on the tennis, but on how the crowd will react to Serena Williams after her 14 year boycott of the event. If the crowd is gracious, and Serena displays her usual form, there should be little to no trouble in her opening matches. Youngster, Zarina Diyas will await in round three, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Williams, who should over-power the Kazakh with ease.
Serena’s draw gets interesting in round four, where Angelique Kerber or Svetlana Kuznetsova should be awaiting her. Both players are in need of wins after failing to really set the world alight in 2015. At this point they should both have a win under their belt to give them somewhat of a confidence boost heading into their third round clash. Interestingly, the head to head is tied at 3-3, but Kerber has a win this year on the hard courts of Dubai. The German overcame Kuznetsova in straight sets on that occasion, and I can see the same happening here.
Kerber has beaten Serena on American soil before three years ago in Cincinnati, but apart from that straight sets win, she has failed to take a set off the world number one. Serena’s record here speaks for itself, so I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t make it to the quarter finals.
Serena’s return might dominate the headlines, but on the court, the fight for the right to face the world number one might just be the show-stealer. This section features two in-form players, who right now are at their career high ranking. Lucie Safarova is just shy of the top 10 following her triumph in Doha. The Czech is dangerous and in excellent form. I wouldn’t want to draw her at Indian Wells.
Timea Bacsinszky is coming off a double title salvo in Mexico, making her perhaps the most in-form player heading into the tournament. The Swiss is at a career high ranking of 26, and is 11th in the race, such is her good form this year. Bacsinszky has in an interesting round three prospect against the eighth seeded Russian Ekaterina Makarova. Bacsinszky leads the head to head 2-1, including a straight sets win in Wuhan last year. However, Makarova brings her best on the big occasion, and that makes her extremely dangerous. The Swiss’ good form will make a lot of people lean towards her, and I understand why, but Makarova is still overall the better player and I favour her in this match-up despite the stats saying otherwise.
The Makarova vs Safarova match will decide who faces Serena in the quarter finals. The battle of the lefties should be close, with both Safarova and Makarova currently in the form of their careers. The Czech should be full of confidence after her exploits in Doha, where she beat Makarova in the round of 16 in three sets. With the head to head and form book in the favour of the world number 11, I will back Lucie to be Serena’s opponent in the quarter finals.
The world number three doesn’t have it easy in Indian Wells, with some dangerous seeded players being drawn into her section. Halep was forced to withdraw from Doha with a rib injury, so her fitness might be in question. There isn’t any news heading into the tournament about tis injury, so I presume she’ll be healed up enough to make a good go of this.
The Romanian’s first test will come in the form of Vavara Lepchenko in the third round. The American has suffered from an illness this season, but she’s very dangerous with her powerful ground strokes being her main weapon. The home crowd could inspire Lepchenko, but the chances are Halep will be too consistent for the American.
The third round clash between Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza is mouth-watering, with the winner facing Halep for a quarter final place. Both Plsikova and Muguruza have been tipped to be the future of the WTA, making this a match-up we could be seeing a whole lot more of in the future. The Czech has been in awesome form this year, climbing towards the top 10 in the rankings with some big wins along the way. Muguruza has played well too, earning some big wins of her own. These two have met twice before, and on both occasions they have been tight three setters. Expect more of the same here, with some huge hitting from both sides of the court. I have a feeling Muguruza will be the victor this time around. She was close in Dubai without playing well and looking tired, so I believe The Spaniard will edge out the Czech on this occasion.
With The Spaniard likely going long with Plsikova, look for Halep to take advantage of a tired Muguruza. The world number three has been prone to being blown off the court by the likes of Garbine, but on this occasion she’ll weather the storm. Muguruza will come out flying, but eventually will slow down as fatigued starts to kick in allowing Halep to complete a three set win.
Seventh seed Agnieszka Radwanska isn’t in the best of form at the moment and could find herself facing an early exit. Camila Giorgi is projected to meet in round three, and with the Italian’s power, The Pole could find herself being blown away. The Italian however is vastly inconsistent, especially with the serve, and could easily fall in the second round to Goerges or Watson. Radwanska might not be in the best form, but she was a finalist here last year, so she has proven she can play well here. I will predict the world number eight to make round four.
The likely opponent will be the winner of the interesting Carla Suarez Navarro vs Barbora Zahalova Strycova round three clash. These two players aren’t known for their power, but they show a lot of variety and bring experience to the table. The Spaniard leads the head to head 6-1, but they have never met on a hard court. Despite the lack of hard court meetings it’s difficult not to back Suarez Navarro in this match, with the 12th seed being overall the better player, in better form and leading the head to head.
Suarez Navarro will therefore face Radwanska in round four with a quarter final place at stake. The seventh seed leads the head to head 2-0, but these two haven’t faced each other since the 2012 US Open. In the two and a half years that have passed, Radwanska has somewhat regressed, whilst Suarez Navarro has improved to become a solid top 20 player. The Spaniard heads into the tournament in better form, and therefore I see her overcoming Radwanska in three sets.
The fourth seeded Caroline Wozniacki will be coming into Indian Wells in good spirits after claiming the Kuala Lumpur title last week; her first of 2015. Wozniacki should make round four, but there are some tricky matches along the way. Kaia Kanepi may await in the second round, and the Estonian is always dangerous. Rising star Belinda Bencic is projected to meet the former world number one in the third round, but the teen isn’t in the best of form this year possessing a 2-5 singles record. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Swiss fall in the second round to Jovanovski or Bertens, albeit these two aren’t in the best of form either. Either way, Wozniacki should defeat either of those three players without too much trouble.
Come the fourth round, her possible opponents include Madison Keys, Jelena Jankovic or 2007 winner Daniela Hantuchova. Keys will be the favourite given her exploits in Melbourne, but the big hitting American may struggle under the pressure of the home crowd. Madison is still young, and with the weight of expectation on her shoulders it will be interesting to see how she copes. The first test will likely be in the form of Hantuchova, who since her 2007 triumph is 1-7 at this event. Hantuchova got some decent for under her belt by winning the Patteya open but has since struggled. Jelena Jankovic is a shell of her former self, and has a tough round two against the winner of Davis vs Schmiedlova. Jankovic bowing out early wouldn’t be much of a shock, but the winner of the second round match-up will likely lose to Keys or Hantuchova in round three.
Keys vs Wozniacki should be the fourth round match, setting up an interesting clash of styles. Keys is pure power, swinging hard and hitting powerful strokes off both wings. Wozniacki is one of the best movers and tour, and her retrieving could frustrate the American. The 16th seed has the power to blow the world number five off the court, but on this occasion on a fairly slow court, I expect Wozniacki to pull through. The Dane has a great record here, being a former champion and finalist.
Could we be in for an all blonde showdown in the quarter finals? Sixth seed Eugenie Bouchard will certainly hope so. The Canadian’s first test will come in round three against big serving American Coco Vandeweghe. Bouchard’s form is unknown as she’s only played one match since the Australian Open, losing to Mona Barthel in Antwerp. Given that she’s fully fit, Bouchard’s early ball striking could get Vandeweghe on the move, making the American less effective. If the 30th seed can get the upper-hand in the rallies with her forehand, then Bouchard could be in trouble. It’s still difficult not to back the sixth seed on this occasion, but this one could be tricky.
Bouchard’s fourth round opponent will likely come down to the winner of Andrea Petkovic vs Alize Cornet. Petkovic might have a difficult time getting past Annika Beck in the second round, but realistically it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The German is in better form than Cornet, but the Frenchwoman leads to head to head 3-1, including a victory in Miami last year. Petkovic is now a top 10 player, and therefore should be more confident this time around, and that will be enough to see her past the 20th seed.
Bouchard’s biggest problem is handling the big hitters, and Petkovic doesn’t really fall into the category. However, you have to consider that Bouchard’s fitness and form is unknown. The world number seven has only played one match since Melbourne. Petkovic hasn’t set the world alight since Antwerp, but she’s hardly looked awful. Knowing where the German’s fitness and form is at, I feel she’s the safer bet to make the quarter finals.
Sharapova’s Quarter
With Azarenka’s injury woes causing the former world number one to fall down the rankings, she was always going to create a tough draw for a top player. This time it’s Maria Sharapova. The pair are scheduled to meet in the third round with Azarenka only just claiming a seeding position due to Kvitova’s withdrawal. Providing nothing gets in their way, this will undoubtedly be the match of the early rounds. Azarenka boasts a 6-1 record on hard courts against the world number two, but their last meeting on this surfaced was over two years ago. Azarenka is slowly building her ranking back up, but she isn’t at the level she displayed in 2012 and 2013 just yet. Maria Sharapova pulled out of Acapulco with illness 2 weeks ago, but that shouldn’t be problem now surely? Expect a tight, (and loud match) with both players wrestling momentum from each other during the match. It will likely come down to mental strength, which is where Sharapova thrives. How many times have we seen the Russian pull through tight matches where she hasn’t played too well? You can’t count them on your fingers that’s for certain. I feel this will be another one of those matches where Sharapova sneaks the win despite being outplayed throughout the majority of the match.
She will then go on to likely face the defending champion Flavia Pennetta. Her victory here last year proved that she likes these courts, and is capable of showing a high level here. Unfortunately for the Italian she won’t reach a high enough level to topple the second seed, and she’ll likely go down in straight sets.
Fifth seed Ana Ivanovic will look to use this tournament to rebuild some confidence after a disappointing defeat to Caroline Garcia last week. These two are on the collision course this week too, with the Serb looking to extract her revenge. Ivanovic will almost certainly make the third round, but Garcia’s participation at this stage isn’t set in stone. Former Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva is the Frenchwoman’s likely second round opponent. The Russian is continuing her comeback from injury, and despite not being at her 2010 level, she’s still a dangerous unseeded player to draw. Garcia reached back to back finals in Mexico, but lost twice to the surging Timea Bacsinszky. It will be interesting to see how the Frenchwoman responds after being only a win away from a title two weeks in a row. These losses can dent your confidence or make you hungry to go that one further. It’s interesting to see which path Garcia will end up going down.
Sara Errani is the projected fourth round opponent of Ivanovic/Garcia/Zvonareva, but the Italian consistency can often leave her prone to being overpowered. Speaking of power, Sabine Lisicki has it in abundance, but the German struggles for consistency outside of Wimbledon, making her an upset target for unseeded players. Jarmila Gajdosova and Roberta Vinci will be looking to take advantage of that, but first they must battle each other in an intriguing round one match. Vinci is experienced, crafty, and a former top 20 player, but you feel her singles form is declining as she reaches her advanced years. The 32 year old seems more focused on doubles nowadays with her partner Sara Errani. Gajdosova has shown some good form this year, and as she closes in on the top 50, I expect her to take advantage of a decent draw and make the fourth round. I don’t feel she can go any further though.
Round of 16:
Serena def. Kerber in 2
Safarova def. Makarova in 3
Halep def. Muguruza in 3
Suarez Navarro def. Radwanska in 3
Petkovic def. Bouchard in 3
Wozniacki def. Keys in 3
Ivanovic def. Gajdosova in 2
Sharapova def. Pennetta in 2
Quarter Finals:
Serena def. Safarova in 3
Halep def. Suarez Navarro in 2
Wozniacki def. Petkovic in 2
Sharapova def. Ivanovic in 3
Safarova’s good form will allow her to hand Serena her first set loss in the tournament, but Serena’s power and mental strength will be too much for the Czech to handle. Suarez Navarro will have a good run to the quarter finals, but Halep will prove too consistent, and too good for the Spaniard. Wozniacki loves playing at Indian Wells, and that will show with another deep run here. She shouldn’t have too many problems dispatching Petkovic like most of their previous meetings.
Sharapova vs Ivanovic will be dramatic, and will be very similar to the world number 2’s clash with Azarenka in round two. Sharapova will pull through in another battle of grit and determination. Make sure to check your blood pressure whilst watching this one.
Semi Finals:
Serena def. Halep in 2
Wozniacki def. Sharapova in 3
Serena had her troubles with Halep at the Tour Championships last year, but I hardly expect a repeat. The world number one will be determined and that will see her through in one tight and one dominant set. Wozniacki vs Sharapova is an interesting match-up. The head to head is close at 5-4 in The Russian’s favour, but the Dane has won their past two meetings, both of hard courts. With that in mind, I am predicting Wozniacki to grind her way through in 3 tight sets.
Final:
Serena def. Wozniacki in 2
The battle of best friends will decide the championship at Indian Wells, and as usual Williams will be the victor. The American leads the head to head 10-1, and has a good record at this tournament despite not playing here since 2001. The world number one will cap her return to Indian Wells with another Premier title.
2015 Indian Wells ATP Qualifying Headliners Include Young Guns Coric, Nishioka, Veterans Melzer, Mathieu, and Sela Adam Addicott and Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Whilst the top stars of the ATP World Tour will make their final preparations for the first Masters event of 2015 at Indian Wells on the practice courts. The competitive action in the men’s draw will begin today with the start of the qualifying event. 48 players will battle against each other on court during two rounds in order to win one of the 12 qualification slots in the main draw. The 12 qualifiers will also get a guaranteed $10,485 for playing in the first round.
Heading the seeds will be teenage sensation Borna Coric. The 18-year-old comes into the event will a huge amount of confidence following his impressive run at the ATP Dubai Open where he beat Andy Murray to reach the semi final of the tournament. His Dubai performance has elevated him to a career ranking high of 60 in the world. In the first round, he will play Artem Smirnov from the Ukraine and could potentially face Gastão Elias in the next round if all goes to plan. If the Croatian qualifies for the main draw, it will be the first Master event that he has participated in. Look for Coric, if he can avoid a hangover from Davis Cup in Europe, to qualify as he’s the strongest player in his section by far.
Second seed Go Soeda has so far experienced a very average start to 2015. He reached the second round of the Australian Open after beating Elias Ymer in the first round and also reached the second round of the ATP Zagreb Open. Despite being ranked 84 in the world, the Japanese player is yet to beat a top 100 played in 2015. The highest ranked player he has beaten so far this year was Matthias Bachinger (119) last month. In the first round, he will player world 164 Alex Bolt. Soeda comes off Davis Cup for Japan, and may be fatigued, giving Bolt a decent shot an upset, however the Aussie is 1-2 with a retirement in his last four matches, and that does not bode well for his chances. I expect Alejandro Falla to be the round 2 opponent for Soeda, as the veteran ball striker is in better form than James McGee, even though he’s struggled all year himself. McGee has lost four straight, while Falla has at least managed some wins at a lower level. I also favor Falla over Soeda to qualify.
Jurgen Melzer (3) is bidding to play in the Indian Wells main draw for the 12th consecutive year. Melzer, who reached the fourth round of the tournament back in 2010, is hoping to regain some solid form in his game after a poor month. The former world number 8 has lost 5 out of his last 6 matches played. The veteran player will open up his qualifying campaign against another veteran player Danai Udomchoke. 33-year-old Udomchoke is currently ranked 326 in the world, however he has been ranked high as 77 back in 2007. On paper this sound be a straight forward encounter for Melzer and could potentially face 2014 Australian Open junior champion Alexander Zverev in the final round.Given his poor showing in Davis Cup, I see Melzer winning his round 2 match but losing to either the young gun Zverev, or American veteran Michael Russell, who always plays his best on home soil.
Completing the top five seeds are Damir Džumhur and Spainiard Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Dzumhur, who rose to media spotlight last year where he reached the third round as a qualifier at the Australian Open, will play Frank Dancevic in their first ever meeting. Meanwhile Gimeno-Trove will play Jason Jung from America in what will also be their first ever meeting. Dzumhur played well in Davis Cup, so he should be able to defeat Dancevic and veteran Philipp Petzschner or Marco Cecchinato thereafter to qualify.
As for DGT, if he wins his first match over Jung, he will not be favored, given he much prefers clay, against Aljaz Bedene who has had a strong 2015 thus far. Bedene has American Dennis Novikov as his first opponent.
6 seed Tobias Kamke has an interesting round 1 match against Nikoloz Basilashvili of the Republic of Georgia. Basilashvili started the year off strong and won his first ever ATP main draw match, but he’s cooled off since then with three straight ATP qualifying losses. Kamke is to some extent a declining veteran so I have him falling to Basilashvili, and then the Georgian regaining form and qualifying with a win over either Alex Kuznetsov or Victor Hanescu, both steady veterans.
7 seed Farrukh Dustov, who has a challenger title this season, should defeat struggling young American Mackenzie McDonald, but he’s not the favorite in his section, that title goes to the retiring serve and volleyer Michael Berrer, who will face young gun Taro Daniel (who he beat this year in AO qualies). Berrer should qualify given his good form this year, that included a win over Rafael Nadal in Doha, though this is an unpredictable section.
Look for Aussie J.P. Smith to upset Filip Krajinovic, the 8 seed. Krajinovic played Davis Cup this weekend and he’s not as formidable on hard courts, while Smith is perhaps nearing a major breakthrough. Either Smith or Polish veteran Lukasz Kubot are most likely to qualify in this section, as Kubot also comes off DC duty and faces another Aussie, Luke Saville in round 1.
9 seed James Duckworth does not have an easy matchup with rapidly improving American Jared Donaldson who will have the home fans behind him. I believe in Donaldson this time around to qualify on home soil, with wins over Duckworth and American Rajeev Ram, who faces Marco Trungelliti in round 1.
10 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu, who has been up and down this season, faces USC standout Yannick Hanfmann, a wild card, and then he is likely to face his struggling countryman Edouard Roger-Vasselin in round 2 (ERV faces dirtballer Guido Andreozzi in round 1). ERV has plenty of talent but he’s been poor for quite some time, and PHM should be the one to qualify.
Davis Cup Hero James Ward also has a good shot at qualifying as he continues his quest to break into the top 100, Ward Faces Mitchell Krueger of the USA in round 1, and then the winner of Yoshito Nishioka vs. the veteran Mischa Zverev (the older brother of Alex), in round 1. I have Nishioka qualifying, as he did in Delray, but Ward is also playing well so it’s a tough call.
12 seed Dudi Sela struggled in Davis Cup action for Israel, but he’s still favored to beat young American Taylor Harry Fritz. Look for a relatively in-form Thiemo De Bakker to beat Emilio Gomez and then Sela to qualify, as he could pose a threat to the main draw entrants if he does qualify. De Bakker has always had the talent, but his effort and desire has been lacking at times.
The action should be quite exciting from Indian Wells, and Adam will have a recap of the qualifying results once the qualifying tournament concludes on Wednesday.
