Golden Swing Concludes With 2018 ATP Sao Paulo featuring Gael Monfils and Fabio Fognini Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP 250 tournament in Sao Paulo, Brazil concludes the clay court golden swing in South America. A host of South American dirtballers will be joined by Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini, and Albert Ramos in the hunt for an ATP title.
Top seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas has not had a great golden swing and really needs to get past Thiago Monteiro (or Guilherme Clezar) in the second round. Monteiro has had some unlucky results lately, and likely loses round 2 to Ramos. Chile’s Nicolas Jarry reached semis in Rio and has had a solid golden swing. He should keep it up against Dusan Lajovic, then defeat Guido Pella or Corentin Moutet in round 2. I’ll back Jarry over Ramos in the quarters given Jarry just beat Ramos in Rio.
Gael Monfils has posted 2 quarters and a semi in his golden swing efforts. He’ll open with Thomaz Bellucci or Horacio Zeballos. Presuming Monfils wins that and reaches the quarters he’ll face either Rogerio Dutra Silva or Nicolas Kicker. Kicker opens with a fading Victor Estrella, Dutra Silva faces Tennys Sandgren. I’ll back Monfils over both Brazilians (Bellucci and RDS) to reach the semis.
Fabio Fognini reached semis in Rio and should get past Renzo Olivo/Joao Domingues in his first match. Federico Delbonis should follow in the quarters. Delbonis faces a potentially unfit Roberto Carballes Baena in round 1. Gerald Melzer or veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will follow. Fognini vs. Delbonis could decide the tournament champion in the quarters. I’ll go with Fognini to reach the semis.
2017 ATP Sao Paulo Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Golden Swing wraps up this week with a 250 stop in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the country’s second ATP World Tour stop.
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 27-March 5, 2017
Prize Money: $455,565
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings in parentheses)
1: Pablo Carreno Busta (24)
2: Albert Ramos (25)
3: Pablo Cuevas (30)
4: Joao Sousa (39)
A lack of top 20 players will dampen enthusiasm for the Sao Paulo clay court tournament.
First round matches to watch:
Gerald Melzer vs. Victor Estrella
Melzer isn’t in bad form, but Estrella is a difficult opponent. The veteran won Quito and badly needs to finish the Golden Swing with momentum. This is a battle of steady dirtballers that is likely to go three sets.
(6)Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Schwartzman reached the semis in Rio, but trails Bellucci in the h2h, and the Brazilian is playing at home. The big hitting Bellucci could overpower DSS, but Schwartzman should be able to find his focus and reach the second round.
Rio finalist Pablo Carreno Busta is 6-2 on clay in 2017 and should ease past either a struggling Horacio Zeballos or Joao Souza to reach the quarterfinals. Italy’s Fabio Fognini should beat his countryman, qualifier Marco Cecchinato, while Italian Alessandro Giannessi should defeat Brazil’s Rogerio Dutra Silva to reach round 2. Fognini has a great opportunity to upset Carreno Busta to reach the semifinals, however PCB has a 3-0 h2h advantage, making him the favorite to reach the semis.
Pablo Cuevas has won two straight titles in Sao Paulo, he’ll go for a third straight with an opening match against Facundo Bagnis or Dusan Lajovic. The winner of Melzer/Estrella has a shot at the quarterfinals, but the Bellucci/Schwartzman winner should be the one in the quarters opposite Cuevas. Cuevas has been struggling, and DSS has a 3-1 h2h edge, Schwartzman should reach the semifinals from this section, ending Cuevas title bid.
7-3 on clay in 2017, Albert Ramos is in good form and should defeat Gastao Elias/Orlando Luz, and then face Thiago Monteiro in the quarterfinals. Monteiro has made two straight quarterfinals, and is playing at home in Brazil. He’ll open against Carlos Berlocq, a semifinalist in Buenos Aires. Monteiro’s round 2 opponent will be Guido Pella or qualifier Guilherme Clezar. Both players are struggling, as are Elias and Luz. Ramos will be the favorite over Monteiro and has a great shot at the title.
Federico Delbonis should defeat qualifier Jozef Kovalik, then face Rio semifinalist Casper Ruud. The young Ruud opens with fellow teenager Akira Santillan, despite his possible fatigue he should win that clay court match, then fall to Delbonis. Joao Sousa should defeat the winner of Inigo Cervantes/Renzo Olivo to reach the quarters as well. Sousa and Delbonis have split meetings, I give Sousa a slight edge to reach the semis.
Brazil’s Monteiro has a great shot at winning a title on home soil. He’s posted solid results on clay this year, and has a reasonable draw, with Ramos and Sousa/Delbonis in his path to the final. Look for this young gun to make a run this week.
Semis Carreno Busta d. Schwartzman
Ramos d. Sousa
PCB is in better form than Schwartzman, Ramos has a slight h2h edge over Sousa despite Sousa’s h2h win this season in Auckland. On clay Ramos is the favorite.
Final Carreno Busta d. Ramos
PCB has a 2-0 h2h against Ramos and has a great shot at a third career ATP title after losing the final in Rio last week.
Dominic Thiem continued his MEGA season with his second ATP title this month in Acapulco. The 500 level tournament is his biggest career result thus far and the 22 year old Austrian is making a push for the top 10. Thiem scored a comeback win in the final 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 over Bernard Tomic after Tomic was up 4-1 and 5-2 in the first set. Tomic had a good tournament and showed his own flashes of greatness but the 23 year old Aussie could maintain a consistent high level compared to Thiem’s newly aggressive tennis this year.
Thiem is 18-4 on the season with room to grow as he has two titles, and two semifinals already this year. He beat Damir Dzumhur, Grigor Dimitrov, and Sam Querrey in resounding fashion without dropping a set, and also came back from a set down against Dmitry Tursunov in his second match. The former top 15 player Dimitrov was plainly outclassed by Thiem who is two years his junior.
Tomic moved to 12-6 on the season and posted his best result after a post Australian slump. He got revenge against Rajeev Ram for a loss earlier this month, and then beat Adrian Mannarino, Illya Marchenko and Alexandr Dolgopolov to reach the final. Dolgo was on fire in the opening set, and had his chances in sets 2 and 3, but somehow Tomic dealt with his shotmaking to advance. Dolgopolov upset David Ferrer early in the tournament, and the other favorite Kei Nishikori lost to Querrey.
Veteran Max Mirnyi teamed up with Treat Huey to defeat Alexander Peya and Philipp Petzschner in the doubles final. Mirnyi needs a couple more wins to make it 700 in his doubles career.
The 500 level stop in Dubai saw world #4 Stan Wawrinka capture his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had a surprisingly easy path to the title after world #1 Novak Djokovic withdrew with an eye infection. Against unseeded veteran Marcos Baghdatis, he dazzled with his backhand in a great display of offense against offense from the baseline for a 6-4 7-6(13) victory.
Wawrinka had to fight back from a set and a break down, and work through a tough third set to beat serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky for the second week in a row, he was looking shaky early on, but wins over Franko Skugor and Philipp Kohlschreiber gave him momentum. Nick Kyrgios met him in the semifinals, as he had another good week on tour, but a back injury forced him to retire in set 2.
The Cypriot Baghdatis reached his first tour final since Atlanta last year, and he did so with surprising wins over Viktor Troicki, Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Feliciano Lopez, dropping just the first set to Lopez en route. Troicki and RBA had been in good form as of late, but both looked exhausted in sloppy second sets against the 30 year old.
Italians Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi won 14-12 in a third set super tiebreak against the Spanish Lopez brothers Feliciano and Marc to capture the doubles title. Lopez still had a great week overall with a semifinal in singles and a final in doubles after a slow start to 2016.
Pablo Cuevas defended his Sao Paulo title and won his second tournament in a row to move to 12-3 on the season, and cement his status as one of the best clay courters on tour. Cuevas is 10-1 on clay this year and dominated the Golden Swing with a quarterfinal in Buenos Aires, and titles in Rio and Sao Paulo.
His Sao Paulo triumph came with little signs of fatigue in a 7-6(4) 6-3 victory over Pablo Carreno Busta. He also beat Facundo Bagnis, the young upstart Thiago Monteiro, and Dusan Lajovic this week, dropping just a set to a promising Monteiro in some rather quick matches. Monteiro is 3-2 on tour this year after making his ATP main draw debut in Rio.
Carreno Busta was bageled in his opening set of the tournament against Albert Ramos but survived a third set tiebreak, and then went on to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver in three sets, Roberto Carballes Baena, and Inigo Cervantes, in quarter and semifinal blowouts. It was the first ever ATP final for Carreno Busta, but victory was not to be had as Cuevas proved too strong. Pablo should be a threat on European clay in the spring as well.
Julio Peralta and Horacio Zeballos won the doubles title over Carreno Busta/David Marrero.
2016 ATP Sao Paulo Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The last call on the golden swing on South American clay is Sao Paulo, Brazil, as a host of dirtballers descend to do battle.
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 22-28, 2016
Prize Money: $436,220
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Benoit Paire (22)
2: Thomaz Bellucci (32)
3: Pablo Cuevas (45)
4: Federico Delbonis (46)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Nicolas Almagro vs. (WC)Thiago Monteiro
The three time Sao Paulo champion Almagro is nearly back into the top 50, and he’ll open finish his golden swing campaign with an opening match against the wild card Monteiro. The 21 year old Brazilian stunned Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a top 10 win in Rio in his ATP debut, and also has some good challenger results this year. Almagro is a heavy favorite, but opponents will be wary of Monteiro on clay for a while after his performance against Tsonga.
(5)Albert Ramos vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
The first meeting between these Spanish dirtballers. The spin maestro Ramos should be the favorite since Carreno Busta has lost three straight, but this should be a high quality clay court contest.
Top seed Benoit Paire went 19-9 on clay last season, and is playing on the surface for the first time this season after a run to the semifinals in Marseille on home soil. Paire will face Dusan Lajovic or Luca Vanni as the Buenos Aires quarterfinalist Lajovic seeks to avenge his loss last year to Vanni in Sao Paulo. Paire could take his check and lose early, but skill wise he should be able to reach the quarterfinals.
Qualifier Gastao Elias of Portugal has a good chance to pull a round one upset over Pablo Andujar. The #8 seed hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Elias has had success in qualifying and on the challenger circuit. Santiago Giraldo has the inside track to beat Marco Cecchinato, and then slip past Andujar or Elias in this open section to reach the quarters himself.
Giraldo has a h2h win on clay over Paire, who could be jet lagged, given Benoit’s inconsistency, I have the Colombian veteran reaching a surprising semifinal.
Rio champ and Buenos Aires quarterfinalist Pablo Cuevas is the defending champion, and he’ll open with either Facundo Bagnis or Paul-Henri Mathieu. The qualifier likely has a slight edge over the French veteran on clay, and if Cuevas isn’t too exhausted, he should continue his good form and reach another quarterfinal.
Almagro/Monteiro will face Daniel Munoz-De La Nava or qualifier Maximo Gonzalez in round 2. Almagro should be able to ease past either player to reach the quarterfinals. Both have struggling as of late.
Cuevas is 4-0 against Almagro in the h2h, and has been in far better form as of late. Almagro will have a great shot at a semi given the fatigue factor, but look for Paire or Giraldo vs. Cuevas/Almagro semi in Sao Paulo.
Quito finalist Thomaz Bellucci rarely plays well on home soil, and struggled in Rio, but he still is a better player on clay than either Taro Daniel or Roberto Carballes Baena, and thus he should advance into the quarters. Carballes Baena has a clear h2h edge over Daniel, though he’s a lucky loser.
Ramos/Carreno-Busta are Bellucci’s likely quarterfinal opponent. Ramos/Carreno-Busta will face Brazilian wild card Guilherme Clezar, who has a challenger final this year on clay, or Daniel Gimeno-Traver, who reached the Rio quarters as a qualifier. I have Ramos over Clezar, and them Ramos over Bellucci for a spot in the semis. Bellucci beat Ramos on clay last year, but the home soil factor gives the Spaniard an edge in this case.
Federico Delbonis was the 2014 champion in Sao Paulo, and he has a great draw if he can repeat that performance this year. He’ll open with a fellow Argentine, either Diego Schwartzman or Horacio Zeballos (2-0 in the h2h against Schwartzman), and the Rio quarterfinalist then will most likely face Paolo Lorenzi. The Italian veteran is 6-3 on clay in recent ATP tournaments, and opens with qualifier Blaz Rola, with Marcel Granollers or Inigo Cervantes to follow. Cervantes could upset the veteran Granollers, but Lorenzi should prove too much.
Delbonis has won his previous three meetings against Lorenzi, including one last week in Rio, giving him an edge for the semis.
Giraldo isn’t in the best of form, even with his attacking game and strong forehand, but he is a benefit of a rather open top half of the draw. His first three matches are winnable, and a match against either a tired Cuevas, or a somewhat shaky Almagro could result in a win as well, giving him a dark horse shot at an ATP final.
Semis Cuevas d. Giraldo
Delbonis d. Ramos
Cuevas has a h2h edge over Giraldo, Ramos and Delbonis are split on clay 2-2, but Delbonis has been in better recent form, and he’s a former champion.
Final Delbonis d. Cuevas
Cuevas has won his last two meetings on clay against Delbonis and just beat him in Rio, but I have that result reversing itself, because if Cuevas reaches the final, he’s likely to be out of gas.
Stan Wawrinka survived some tough matches, including a three set final against Tomas Berdych, to win his first 500 level title in Rotterdam, which is also his first title at that tournament, and his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had to claw his way back from a set down against Berdych, as he was broken in the opening set, after failing to break Berdych in the previous game. Wawrinka broke Berdych once in the second set, and twice in the third set to win the match, as Berdych served under 40% first serves in set 2. Wawrinka was much stronger on serve throughout the match, which means Berdych had fewer chances to grab leads throughout the match. It went back and forth but the elite Wawrinka’s mental fortitude shown through to topple the defending champion. The final scoreline was 4-6 6-3 6-4.
This week Stan was the man, beating Jesse Huta Galung in 3 sets, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in 3 sets, and then he improved and beat Gilles Muller and MIlos Raonic, a pair of huge servers, in straight sets, with the win against Raonic coming in two tiebreaks. JHG and GGL gave it their best shots as underdogs, and Raonic was again impressive on serve, leaving Wawrinka often flailing on return, but his rallying wasn’t good enough to pull off a sustained victory, as Wawrinka survived trial by fire and never faded this tournament.
Berdych, who continues to make deep runs in tournaments so far this season, came close to defending his title, the Czech beat Tobias Kamke without dropping a set, an in form Andreas Seppi in 3 sets, and Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon in routine straight sets. It was a much easier path for Berdych to the final, but perhaps that didn’t prepare for an opponent of Wawrinka’s caliber, once again, under pressure the top Czech folded. Notably Simon upset Andy Murray in a total beatdown in the quarterfinals.
Dutchman Jean-Julien Rojer won on home soil with his partner Horia Tecau, they beat the lucky loser team of Jamie Murray and John Peers, who are off to a great start with their season, in the doubles final.
Kei Nishikori won his third consecutive title in Memphis, he was the top player throughout the week, though a host of competitors gave their best shot trying to defeat him. The last to try was Kevin Anderson who fell to Nishikori 6-4 6-4 in the final.
Nishikori scored wins over three Americans this week, all in three sets, he beat Ryan Harrison first, then Austin Krajicek, who won his second and third career ATP main draw matches in Memphis (over Mikhail Kukushkin and Ivo Karlovic) as a qualifier, and last but not least over Sam Querrey, who he defeated 7-5 in a third set tiebreak, after Querrey had upset his friend John Isner in the quarters in two tiebreaks.
Kevin Anderson also had to beat some US men to reach the final, the South African number one, who has had a good start to his season, beat Sam Groth in straights, then defeated Steve Johnson in straights, and surprise semifinalist Donald Young in 3 sets, coming back from a set down. It was Young’s best result in months as he upset Bernard Tomic in 3 sets in the quarterfinals.
Young also had great success, all be it without a trophy, in doubles this week, as and his partner Artem Sitak fell to Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez, who won their first doubles title as a pairing, both players are accomplished doubles specialists, and they formed a new partnership this season.
Sao Paulo was the place for unheralded players to have success on tour this week, Pablo Cuevas won his third ATP title over the past two seasons, as the Uruguayan will be at a new career high top 30 ranking when the new ATP rankings are released. Cuevas won a third set tiebreak in the final, defeating qualifier Luca Vanni 6-4 3-6 7-6 for the title.
Vanni was perhaps the biggest story on the ATP tour this week, he had never before won an ATP main draw match at the age of 29. The Italian will also be at a career high ranking, as he has never before been ranked in the top 140. Vanni took over Feliciano Lopez’s spot in the draw, as the Spaniard withdrew before the start of the tournament, he beat fellow qualifier Thiemo de Bakker in 3 sets, and then beat Dusan Lajovic in 2 tiebreaks, and Joao Souza in 3 sets to reach the final.
Cuevas beat Jiri Vesely in 3 sets, in a close match, then Facundo Bagnis via retirement, and Nicolas Almagro in 3 sets to reach the semis, at that stage he beat Santiago Giraldo in straights to reach the final, in a tournament full of grinding, close 2 and 3 set matches.
Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah beat Paolo Lorenzi and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the doubles final, as doubles specialist pairings had success on the ATP World Tour this week.
2015 ATP Rotterdam, Memphis, Sao Paulo Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The traditional Rotterdam 500 level indoor hard tournament takes place this week, along with the US indoor tournament in Memphis, and the clay court event in Sao Paulo, which got switched around on the calendar this year. Both of those tournaments are 250 level events. Here is a preview of all the action as indoor tennis heats up and the Golden Swing rolls on.
2015 ATP Rotterdam Preview
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (4)
2: Milos Raonic (6)
3: Tomas Berdych (7)
4: Stan Wawrinka (9)
A stacked field with 6 of the top 15, there are also a host of unseeded and lower seeded players who can play great on hard courts as Rotterdam has yet again attracted a fantastic field for a 500 level event.
Vasek Pospisil vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber Pospisil hurt himself again in Australia, and he hasn’t performed as well historically indoors as he has on outdoor hard, but even still he’s a difficult opponent for the veteran Kohlschreiber in round 1. The German comes off a loss to Joao Sousa in Montpellier. He’s yet to win consecutive matches this season as his form has been up and down, that said Kohlschreiber should be the better performer indoors and having played more matches of late should help him advance to round 2.
(8)Gilles Simon vs. Joao Sousa Many would presume the Portugese number one Sousa is better on clay, but in fact he’s had some of his best career results on hard courts at the ATP level, and especially indoors. The veteran Simon comes off a loss to Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals of Montpellier and has yet to do anything notable in 2015. Sousa faded against Janowicz in the semis of Montpellier and fatigue could well play a factor but he’s 5-3 in 2015, all on hard courts and none of his losses were poor, so I’m going with the upset and picking Sousa to reach R2.
(3)Tomas Berdych vs. Jerzy Janowicz The defending Champion has a difficult match scheduled in round 1, as you rarely see an early round match with both players in such great form. Berdych of course reached the semifinals at Australian Open with a notable win over Nadal, and before that he had reached the final of Doha by demolishing all opponents in his wake (including Richard Gasquet and Andreas Seppi). Janowicz is already showing signs of improvement in 2015, after a dismal 2014. He’s reached the final of Montpellier and he also reached the third round at the AO (notably beating Gael Monfils in 5). History favors Berdych though. The big hitting Czech is 3-0 in the h2h, including a win last year in Rotterdam over the big hitting Pole, and though all of those matches were tight three set encounters, Janowicz has fatigue working against him, and retired due to illness in Montpellier, while Berdych should be fresh, thus he should survive the upset alert.
(5)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q)Paul-Henri Mathieu
Dimitrov lost their only h2h meeting in straights (2012 Basel indoors) and he comes off quarterfinals in Melbourne. Mathieu, the mentally shaky veteran, beat Jurgen Melzer to qualify after pushing Philipp Kohlschreiber to 3 sets in Montpellier. Mathieu is a bit of an indoor hard court specialist these days, and it’s not an easy matchup for Dimitrov, I still expect him to advance but it could go three sets.
David Goffin vs. Gilles Muller Goffin, who hails from just over the border in Belgium, and is nearly playing in a home event, (like the Luxembourger Muller is a fellow Benelux), has yet to catch fire in 2015 after his rise in 2014 into a consistent ATP player. D Goff is just 3-3 in 2015 and has yet to beat a player with a top 50 ranking. Muller, who can do a lot of damage with his cracking serve indoors was shown the door by Ricardas Berankis in Zagreb in 3 sets after reaching the second week in Australia. Muller has kept himself busy thus far this year, having played every week on tour, but his gamestyle doesn’t lend himself to exhaustion, and with Goffin yet to put the pieces together this year, I’m going with an upset and have Muller into round 2. They have never met, and we’ll see if Goffin can keep his game under control under assault from Muller’s steady dose of serve and volleying.
AO finalist Andy Murray, who has won the title here before, opens with qualifier Nicolas Mahut, then the Pospisil/Kohlschreiber winner. Mahut isn’t too dangerous so Murray should be safe in that one. Murray has never played Kohli indoors, and he beat Pospisil last year in Vienna. As well he has started his season, I don’t expect the UK number one to have any problems reaching the quarterfinals to setup a meeting with most likely the Sousa/Simon winner. Julian Benneteau, who has indoor success, and Jeremy Chardy, are also possible opponents, but all the same Murray can’t really complain about his path to the semifinals. He demolished Sousa in Melbourne and has only lost once in a dozen meetings against Simon. I have Sousa into the quarters with wins over Simon and Benneteau. Sousa denied Benneteau a maiden ATP title in Kuala Lumpur indoors in 2013, taking the title himself.
Berdych/Janowicz will face Robin Haase/Andreas Seppi in round 2. Berdych beat Seppi in Doha, and the Italian, who is on a tear so far in 2015, is likely to be fatigued from his current final, and possible title in Zagreb. Haase continues to be pedestrian, so Berdych should get past Seppi for the quarters and setup a meeting with perhaps Roberto Bautista Agut. RBA opens with young gun German WC Alex Zverev, and then Gael Monfils or fellow French qualifier Edouard Roger-Vasselin are on deck. Monfils reached the semis in Montpellier while suffering from an undisclosed illness, and his health is uncertain at the moment. With that in mind, I’m playing it safe and putting RBA through even though Monfils beat him last summer in Cincy. RBA is 3-3 in 2015, but he was also ill in January and isn’t a bad indoor hard court player. Berdych and RBA have a split 2-2 h2h, with all meetings taking place since 2013, and Berdych won their only indoor meeting. That match could be close but Berdych has looked great against all but top tier competition in 2015 and he has points to defend so I expect to see him as a semifinalist this week.
Milos Raonic is making his debut in Rotterdam. The AO quarterfinalist will face Lukas Rosol or Simone Bolelli in round 2, after qualifier Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1. Bolelli, who is actually a grand slam champion now after winning the doubles title in Melbourne, has been in better form than Rosol, so he should advance to face Raonic. Raonic has appeared immune to losing to all but top 10 players on hard court as of late so he shouldn’t have any trouble banging his way to the quarterfinals. Raonic doesn’t have a difficult path to the semifinals either, as Ernests Gulbis is the seed in his section, and Gulbis has not looked good so far this season. The Latvian will likely be happy to be back indoors though and should be favored against his best pal and former hitting partner Dominic Thiem of Austria. Thiem actually beat Gulbis in 5 last year at the US Open but Thiem has appeared to be out of sorts and out of shape thus far in 2015, so now is a good time to see him on the other side of the net if you’re Gulbis, who will be looking to build his confidence. In round 2 for Gulbis/Thiem it’ll be Sergiy Stakhovsky or Marcel Granollers, two of the weaker players in this field. Stakhovsky lost in round 2 of Zagreb to Mikhail Youzhny, while Granollers reached the semifinals before falling to Seppi. With Granollers in better form I have him through against both Stako and Gulbis. The hard court h2h between Gulbis and Granollers is 1-1. Raonic should demolish whoever his quarterfinal opponent is and reach the semis.
Stan Wawrinka, who reached the semis in Australia will open with Dutch wild card Jesse Huta Galung, from there expect Wawrinka to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez yet again, after winning in 4 sets over him at the AO. GGL is in the Zagreb final (beat Viktor Troicki notably) and may take the title there, he opens with Denis Istomin who luckily reached the quarters in Montpellier. GGL won their only indoor meeting, and should get into round 2, but I don’t expect him to have much left in the tank for for Wawrinka at that stage. Wawrinka is slated to face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, assuming he can get past Mathieu, and then the Goffin/Muller winner. Muller/Goffin could be trouble, but Dimitrov is still the more talented player so he should be favored. Dimitrov demolished Wawrinka on grass in their last h2h meeting but given current form, the fact this is indoors, and a 2-1 overall h2h Wawrinka should be able to get himself to the semis here and avenge that loss.
In a tournament where the top seeds should be filling out the quarterfinals and beyond, Muller represents the best chance for an unseeded breakthrough (given Janowicz’s likely fatigue). With his dangerous serve, and the fact this is a tournament close to his home. Muller plays tennis with narrow margins, when his serve is clicking he can win a bunch of matches, and when he has even a slight dip in form he’ll struggle against journeymen, but if he does start to click, he could perhaps beat Goffin, Dimitrov, and who knows, even Wawrinka if Stan has an off day, to reach the semis, it’s not likely but the chance is there on this surface.
Predictions Semis: Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Raonic
In what would be an AO rematch, Berdych is good indoors but we saw how well Murray played in their recent matchup, so the Brit has to be favored. Top 10 players Raonic and Wawrinka have a chance to meet for the fourth time here, I’m going with Wawrinka based on a gut feeling that he will be able to return well enough to beat Raonic, given he’s won all three previous meetings in that manner, but it is nearly a pure toss-up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these names in the final given their excellent form so far this season.
Final: Murray d. Wawrinka
This match has always been a close one, Murray has a 6-3 hard court h2h edge, with Wawrinka having won their last meeting (US Open 2013). Again this is a super hard pick to make and both would be deserving champions. I’ve been really pleased with what I’ve seen from Murray since last Fall, and given that I feel he’s back, I have him as the champion this week of a stacked Rotterdam event.
Memphis Open ATP World Tour 250 Memphis, Tennessee, USA February 9-February 15, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Kevin Anderson (15)
3: John Isner (18)
4: Alexandr Dolgopolov (24)
In it’s second year as a 250 level, ATP only event, Memphis has three top 20 players, and a relatively quality international contingent to go with most of the top and up and coming US men.
First Round matchups to watch:
(WC)Jared Donaldson vs. (WC)Stefan Kozlov Two players who have been pegged as future leaders in US men’s tennis will meet early on in their careers as wild cards on US soil in Memphis. Donaldson, 18, just won the Maui challenger title, his first career Challenger title, after going on a tear of 17 match wins in a row last season. Kozlov, 17, who had more success at the junior level, reaching two junior grand slam finals last season (Wimbledon and the AO) won the Maui doubles title partnering with Donaldson. Both are at career high rankings (Kozlov nearing the top 400 and Donaldson inside the top 180). Donaldson at this point in his career is perhaps slightly ahead of the development curve compared to the younger Kozlov, and his recent form would make him the favorite, but I’m not sure the result of this match will mirror how their careers are going to turn out.
AO quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori has won this title twice in a row and he’s going for a three-peat this year. Malek Jaziri or a qualifier will be his first opponent, Jaziri, who has actually played well this year so far (reached the third round in Melbourne), got himself in hot water again after retiring from a set up against Denis Istomin in Montpellier. The stated reason was an “elbow injury” but Israeli player Dudi Sela had setup a meeting with the Tunisian in the next round, and Jaziri has withdrawn before to avoid facing an Israeli player. Jaziri also pulled out of doubles against an Israeli opponent in Montpellier, and this PR debacle of a situation is going to cloud him for quite some time, especially if he continues to not directly come out and address it. All the same expect to see Nishikori in the quarters, and perhaps get a rematch of last years final against Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Croat will need to defeat Lukas Lacko, who was awful in Zagreb last week, and then the Mikhail Kukushkin/qualifier winner. Kukushkin, who reached an ATP final in January in Sydney, is a rather streaky player, as is Karlovic, who lost his opening contest in Zagreb against Marcos Baghdatis in 3 sets. Kukushkin and Karlovic have never played, I’m simply picking Karlovic because of previous success and the quarterfinalist here is a toss-up. Regardless, expect Nishikori to blaze through to the semis.
John Isner has never played as well in Memphis as he has in most other US events, that said the American number one has Ivan Dodig or Teymuraz Gabashvili on his plate in round 2. Gabashvili played pretty well in the Dallas challenger, reaching the semifinals, while Dodig lost his second match in Zagreb to Marcel Granollers. This matchup could go either way, but given Gabashvili is already in the US, I have him into round 2, before falling victim to Isner. Benjamin Becker, who had his best result at a Grand Slam in a decade when he reached the third round in Melbourne this year is in this section as well as a potential quarterfinal opponent for Isner. Becker could potentially vanquish both parts of “Quisner” , as his round 1 opponent is Sam Querrey who is 0-3 in 2015. Look for Becker, who serves as well as Querrey, but is a superior ball striker and mover, to get into the quarterfinals after beating most likely Donaldson in round 2. This isn’t a bad draw for one of the young American wild cards, but more likely will serve as a learning experience with a round 2 loss against a more experienced player. Isner has a 3-0 h2h against Becker but they haven’t met since 2009 and Becker has played, perhaps the best tennis of his career into his 30s over the past 6 months or so, with that in mind, I have Becker as a surprise semifinalist this week.
Kevin Anderson reached the second week in Melbourne, and should expect to be matched serve for serve in his first match in Memphis, that is if Aussie Sam Groth, who reached the third round Melbourne, can defeat baseliner Rendy Lu in round 1. Both Groth and Anderson have had both good and bad results in 2015, and it’s a tough match to pick. Anderson, given his ranking and similar style of player, is in most cases better than Groth on the return and equal to him on serve, so the South African number one should get through with likely tiebreak sets. Groth has improved his return but Anderson was already a step ahead. American Steve Johnson has a great shot at a good result here, if he can beat Dudi Sela, and Marinko Matosevic/Dustin Brown, he’d setup a quarterfinal meeting with most likely Anderson. Johnson has yet to lose an opening round match in 2015, as he continues to show signs of improvement in his game. Brown was a point away from beating possible champion Jerzy Janowicz in Montpellier, but all the same I expect Johnson over Matosevic in round 2. Anderson is 3-0 against Johnson, including two wins last year and a win in straights this year in Auckland, with that in mind, the matchup favors Kev and he should reach the semis, even with a tricky path.
Alex Dolgopolov, who was injured in Australia with a leg problem could face Bernard Tomic in round 2, assuming the Aussie, who reached the second week in Melbourne, beats Igor Sijsling, who comes off the quarterfinals in Zagreb. Tomic is 7-3 in 2015 and appears to be focused and in the groove right now, you never know how long that will last, but he still should be the favorite to reach the quarterfinals at least here, with Dolgo in questionable physical condition and always unpredictable. Tomic and Dolgo have played some awesome h2h matches, with Tomic winning their most recent encounter last year in Sydney, and also a 5 setter at the 2012 AO (Dolgo had won three previous hc meeting before that one for a 3-2 hard court h2h edge), This is a must see match if it takes place, with talented shotmaking a given. Tomic should actually have an easier time in the quarters, Donald Young is an option, Adrian Mannarino is the 8 seed, and a pair of qualifiers are also here. This is a section a qualifier could get out of (Denis Kudla, and Thanasi Kokkinakis are potential qualifiers) but without knowing who the qualifiers will be, I have Mannarino into the quarters with wins over Young and a qualifier. Mannarino reached the final in Auckland last month and comes off a round 1 loss to Sijsling in Zagreb, while Young was a quarterfinalist in Auckland. Tomic should reach the semis out of this section that isn’t overly difficult.
Tomic should make the semis as a non seed given his draw, and one of Anderson/Johnson/Groth is also quite beatable, Tomic is 3-0 on hard courts against Anderson, including a win indoors last year in Stockholm, and thus he should be an a finalist this week if his play holds true to its current form. As usual the talent is there but the question is can Bernie remain focused and implement the game plan and discipline needed to translate that into results on a week to week basis?
Semis: Nishikori d. Becker
Tomic d. Anderson
Nishikori and Becker played one of the best regular ATP tour matches of the season last year in Tokyo, Nishikori won in a third set tiebreak, clawing back from a set down, as Becker was throwing his entire arsenal at Nishikori (and previously Nishikori beat Becker last year in Memphis). The Japanese number one should win, but this pair produce some great tennis on a consistent basis and it’s still worth watching.
As mentioned above, Tomic has a demonstrated edge against Anderson, and thus he should take advantage of his draw and make the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Tomic
Nishikori was a cut above Tomic in the Brisbane quarterfinals this year, given how that match went, I don’t expect this one to go any better, Nishikori is a strong favorite to win his third ATP Memphis title.
The 24 year old Lajovic remains poised to a breakthrough at the ATP level, though his ranking is stuck in the 60-90 no mans land right now. Meanwhile the veteran Andujar will be pleased to return to clay court tennis this week, as hard courts have once again not been kind to him this year. Lajovic pushed possible Quito champion Feliciano Lopez (a current finalist) to 3 sets in the quarterfinals, very nearly knocking him out with a 1 set lead and break point chances in the second. Andujar has experience and he’s higher ranked but I’m going with an upset and placing Lajovic into the second round, as I feel he has the ability to win this.
(8)Martin Klizan vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Bellucci beat Klizan last year in Sao Paulo, and comes off the Quito semis, where he dropped a tough match to Victor Estrella. The home player with have crowd support against the Slovak Klizan, who also lost to Estrella by a wider margin in the quarterfinals of that same event. Bellucci should be favored at home but his mentality is always a question mark, either way this should be a rowdy contest.
(5)Pablo Cuevas vs. Jiri Vesely
Cuevas had a fantastic year on the red stuff last year, going 47-9 on clay across all levels of tournament action with a pair of ATP titles to reach a career high ranking just inside the top 30. Now he will seek to repeat that showing, or even one up it this year, starting his ATP clay tournament calendar in Sao Paulo. In his first match on clay in 2015 he will face the young Czech Jiri Vesely who just won his maiden ATP title last month in Auckland. Vesely is also no slouch on clay, as he went 18-10 on the surface under the same standard as Cuevas. Vesely likely has more raw ability, but I have the experienced Cuevas, who plays some of his best tennis in these conditions, through to round 2.
Feliciano Lopez is seeking to binge his way through the Golden Swing and maintain, if not improve on his career high ranking inside the top 15. The current Quito finalist and possible champion will have his first match in SP against Juan Monaco, a former doubles partner, or a qualifier (young gun Elias Ymer and a host of second tier dirtballers are possible qualifiers). Monaco was once in the same position Lopez is in now, having reached a career high ranking of 10 in 2010, but it’s been all downhill from there for the declining Argentine, so even if he’s fatigued Flopez should flow his way into the quarters, while Monaco could struggle with a qualifier in round 1. Lopez could play a rematch of a strange, but quality semifinal match with his fellow Spanish Armada member Fernando Verdasco in the quarters. The Quito semifinalist has a qualifier first up and then the Lajovic/Andujar winner. This section presents a great chance for Lajovic to post consecutive quarters if Verdasco is exhausted. Otherwise I’m going to repeat what I picked last week, and put Verdasco into the semis, even though I was wrong on that in Quito. It was a close match and Lopez will have to play one extra match (and stay in Quito an extra day) compared to Verdasco. Something like that is enough to swing a result.
Leonardo Mayer. who went 19-10 on clay last year with an ATP title and final on the surface, both career bests, is another player that is happy to see the ATP tour return to clay. Mayer will face Spanish vet Albert Ramos or Brazilian WC Guillherme Clezar in round 1. Mayer is a cut above Ramos, and Ramos is more accomplished than Clezar, so expect Mayer to reach the quarters by defeating Ramos. Mayer vs. the Bellucci/Klizan winner is the most likely quarterfinal in this section. I favor Bellucci over Pablo Carreno Busta, assuming PCB beats Joao Souza, another Brazilian. Souza comes off a round 1 loss in Quito, while PCB will be making his 2015 clay debut after posting a 24-15 record on the surface last season in tournament play. Bellucci-PCB should be a good R2 match for a 250, with Bellucci has a home favorite. Mayer and Bellucci have a split h2h, when it comes to the slated quarterfinal (2-2), and Mayer has been better in recent career results, so I have Leo into the semis against Verdasco.
Tommy Robredo, who won this tournament in 2009 when it was in a different location, will open with Blaz Rola or Nicolas Almagro in round 2. Almagro is a three time former champion at the Brasil Open, and he’s 4-1 against Robredo on clay in his career. He’s played just a handful of matches since coming back from injury, but he looked healthy and improving in Melbourne (lost to Kei Nishikori in round 1), while Robredo is coming off his own injury and hasn’t completed any tournament matches this year. Rola hasn’t done anything special as of late, and I expect Almagro to keep improving against him, then get Robredo at a good time for that matchup to happen, and take him out as well to make the quarterfinals. At that stage Cuevas/Vesely could be his opponent, or defending champ Federico Delbonis who opens with a qualifier. Delbonis went 14-10 on clay last year in what was a breakthrough season into the top 60 for him. He has a lot of points to defend, and he’s not been gifted a lucky draw, as I feel Cuevas is superior on the surface, and will be the one to reach the quarters, though any of him, Vesely or Cuevas reaching the quarters wouldn’t shock me, as it’s a stacked section. Cuevas just beat Almagro in Sydney on HCs and has one previous H2H win against him, so for that reason I’m going with another (slight) upset and putting the Uruguayan number one into the semis from this stacked section.
Fabio Fognini is returning to clay in SP and looking to get his singles career back on track, having returned the Golden Swing he did so well in last year. Fogna will face his countryman Paolo Lorenzi or Diego Schwartzman in round 2. Lorenzi comes off quarters in Quito, while Schwartzman is ready to make his move to the next level, after an incredible 21-2 record on clay last year at the non ATP level (22-3 overall as he played almost entirely challengers to get into the top 70). I have the 22 year old making his move and defeating both Italians, Lorenzi and Fognini to reach the quarterfinals. SP is the type of tournament where rising players can have a shot to announce themselves to the tennis world, and Schwartzman is due. Fognini has been in crisis mode since the US Open and Schwartzman is good enough to at least give him a quality match, and given the current state of Fogna’s form, defeat him. Schwartzman also has a great chance at the semis, the only other seed left would be Santiago Giraldo, the Colombian who had a great year last year, dropped a bad match to Albert Montanes in Quito. He opens with WC Kimmer Coppejans, and should win, but I have Argentine grinder Carlos Berlocq beating him, given the 4-2 overall h2h in round 2. Berlocq went 18-6 on clay last year and beat Schwartzman in 3 sets to win a challenger title on clay (Porto Alegre). A quarterfinal between this is a bit of a coin flip but I have the experienced Berlocq into the semifinals against Cuevas.
I have the unseeded Berlocq in the semis this week as well, but Schwartzman gets the dark horse tag because he’s a young gun, and he could win his first ATP title this week if he rises to the occasion. Should he get through Lorenzi, Fognini and Berlocq/Giraldo, all accomplished veterans, Cuevas/Almagro/Robredo or some other player are all beatable semifinal opponents as Schwartzman would likely need to beat a bunch of veterans just to reach the final this week. It’s a relatively open tournament field and Verdasco/Mayer/Lopez aren’t unbeatable either in a possible final.
Predictions Semis: Mayer d. Verdasco
Cuevas d. Berlocq
Mayer should be fresher than Verdasco or Lopez, and you have to believe he can maintain the high level of play we saw from his last season, especially on his favorite surface.
Cuevas-Berlocq is another judgement call but Cuevas has won the last four clay court h2h meetings, so he should be favored.
Final: Mayer d. Cuevas
Mayer was slightly better last season and has a 2-1 clay h2h edge, this is a hard tournament to predict, but I have Mayer winning another ATP title, this time in Sao Paulo.
2013 ATP Rotterdam, San Jose and São Paulo Previews Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
Two indoor hard court events and an indoor clay court event are the ATP offerings this week. Rotterdam has the strong field of a 500 series event, San Jose will play its final edition before shuttering its doors, and the Brasil Open will be held for the second time in a row in vibrant São Paulo.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
February 11-February 17, 2013
Prize Money: € 1,267,875
Top 8 seeds
1: Roger Federer
2: Juan Martin Del Potro
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
4: Richard Gasquet
5: Gilles Simon
6: Andreas Seppi
7: Jerzy Janowicz
8: Florian Mayer
First round matchups to watch:
Bernard Tomic vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Both guys are regarded as the future of ATP tour. Both have also been good but inconsistent recently with Tomic having not played since AO and Dimitrov coming off a 1st round loss in Zagreb. They are 4 spots apart in the rankings and Dimitrov is a year older. Should be a fun, even match indoors.
2-time champion and defending champion Roger Federer is back in action and opens against Grega Zemlja, then will face the winner of Zagreb semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny vs. wild card Thiemo De Bakker. In the quarters, Fed could get Jerzy Janowicz, who opens with Victor Hanescu, followed by the winner of Julien Benneteau vs. Montpellier semifinalist Michael Llodra. It is not a super easy draw but it is one Federer should be able to handle.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga opens with wildcard Igor Sijsling and then the winner of Martin Klizan vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu. In the quarters he should get Gilles Simon, who opens with a qualifier, and then a qualifier or Marcel Granollers. This is another very good draw for J-WT.
Defending finalist Juan Martin Del Potro will open with a possibly tricky match against Gael Monfils, before squaring off against a qualifier or Zagreb semifinalist Robin Haase in the second round. In the quarters he is slated to meet Andreas Seppi (who opens with a qualifier). Montpellier semifinalist Jarkko Nieminen, who has drawn David Goffin, is also an option.
Richard Gasquet, still in the hunt for the Montpellier final, and playing great at the moment, opens with Viktor Troicki. He might see his opponent in the Montpellier final, Benoit Paire, yet again in the 2nd round. That’s if Paire can beat Marcos Baghdatis.
Florian Mayer opens with Nikolay Davydenko, who should have an edge in that one, and then play the winner of Dimitrov/Tomic.
Dark Horse: Bernard Tomic
While Tomic might be a bit rusty, he was also gifted with a good draw assuming he can beat Dimitrov. Davydenko was not that impressive in Montpellier and Gasquet or Paire may well be tired after reaching the final there. He has a reasonable chance at the semis, though he won’t be the favorite in that section.
Federer d. Tsonga
Del Potro d. Gasquet
Federer should cruise past Janowicz and deal with Tsonga, while Del Potro hasn’t been great but doesn’t have a very hard draw. Gasquet will probably be tired at that point, but it should still be a close match though and I could see Gasquet winning.
Federer d. Del Potro
In a rematch of last year’s final, expect the same result. The Swiss Maestro should claim his 3rd in Rotterdam.
ATP San Jose
ATP World Tour 250
San Jose, California
February 11- February 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 546,930
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Milos Raonic
2: John Isner
3: Sam Querrey
4: Tommy Haas
1st round matchups to watch:
Benjamin Becker vs. Ryan Harrison
This match is notable. Why? Because Becker is your average aging mid level grinder who occasionally has a good run. Meanwhile, Harrison is still a talented young player but his career seems to have struck a bit of a rut as he remains outside the top 50 and really didn’t have very many great results last year. That being said, San Jose was his best result last year in reaching the semis, and if Harrison is going to get up in the rankings these are the kind of matches he needs to win.
Harrison has not played a match since Australia, meaning that there might be some rust in his game, while Becker comes off a 1st round loss in Zagreb. This one could go either way, though Harrison will have fan support and beat Becker twice last year.
Blaz Kavcic vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Zagreb quarterfinalist Blaz Kavcic is playing very well right now and will be one to watch as he takes on Hewitt. The Aussie is at an uncertain level at the moment, having not played that many matches in the first month of the year. This match could also go either way depending on Kavcic’s fatigue level and Hewitt’s activity level. Kavcic has a 2-0 H2H record against Hewitt.
(WC) Jack Sock vs. (7) Marinko Matosevic
Sock is another young American player who has been a real rollercoaster recently. He comes into San Jose having not played a match since AO qualies, and may well be ice cold to take on Matosevic, another Aussie at an unsure level. If Sock is going to improve his ranking, these are the kind of matchups he needs to win, but I don’t think you can expect him to win this one.
Ivo Karlovic vs. (WC) Steve Johnson
Karlovic is of course known for his fantastic serve and not much else, as he knocked off Grigor Dimitrov in Zagreb but then fell in the next round. As for Johnson, he fell in the opening round of the Dallas challenger and is playing questionably at the moment. This is another pick ’em matchup, almost certain to end with two or three tiebreaks and a whole lot of holding serve.
Milos Raonic is coming off Davis Cup dominance and has won this event twice in a row. He’ll open with Michael Russell or a qualifier, then likely faces 6 seed Denis Istomin (if Istomin can beat a qualifier) and the Becker/Harrison winner. Assuming Raonic is in good health, he should cruise to the semis.
Sam Querrey, also coming off a confident and successful Davis Cup showing, opens with the Hewitt/Kavcic winner. That could be a possible trip up on a bad day, but otherwise should also be in route for the semis. His quarterfinal opponent would be the Matosevic/Sock winner, Flavio Cipolla or Alejandro Falla. This is another pretty weak quarter of middling players.
John Isner will hopefully be fully rested and have his game together to take on the winner of Vasek Pospisil vs. Evgeny Donskoy in an intriguing first rounder. He would get either 8 seed Xavier Malisse or Go Soeda in the quarters, with a qualifier or the struggling Matt Ebden also options.
Tommy Haas is in his first match back from a opening round loss in Australia. Haas will start with Jesse Levine or Bradley Klahn, before a likely difficult quarterfinal matchup with Fernando Verdasco. Former finalist Verdasco opens with a qualifier followed by the Karlovic/Johnson winner. This is easily the most competitive quarter of the four.
Dark Horse: Evgeny Donskoy
This tournament is top heavy and not the most fertile spot for dark horses, but Donskoy fits the bill. If he can slide past Pospisil and Isner is still in a funk, he grabs the upset, which would really open things up and make a semifinal run feasible. The 22-year-old Russian is talented and capable, along with being at a career high ranking of 68 but it is still unlikely. Furthermore, possible quarterfinal opponent Soeda beat him in straights recently in Chennai.
Raonic d. Querrey
Verdasco d. Isner
Raonic and Querrey could really slug it out indoors in a match in which Raonic will have a slight edge. Verdasco ought to be good enough to get past a struggling Isner, who has not been at his best at all this year.
Raonic d. Verdasco
This would be a rematch of the 2011 final, in the tournaments final edition. You have to expect the result to be the same, with Raonic capping off 3 straight with another beast mode showing indoors.
ATP Sao Paulo
ATP World Tour 250
São Paulo, Brazil
February 11-February 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 455,775
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Rafael Nadal
2: Nicolas Almagro
3: Juan Monaco
4: Jeremy Chardy
1st round matchups to watch:
Andrey Kuznetsov vs. Carlos Berlocq
If you’ve paid attention this week, this match is a rematch of their 1st round encounter just a few days ago in Vina Del Mar, won by Berlocq easily in straight sets. Nothing has changed, except Berlocq is still in the running for the Vina title and may be a bit tired by the time he reaches this match.
(7) Pablo Andujar vs. Santiago Giraldo
Andujar hasn’t won a match this year, including an opening match loss in Vina Del Mar and is on a precarious footing as he takes on the steady eddy Giraldo. He should have just enough to hand the seeded Andujar another loss.
It is a draw eerily identical to Vina Del Mar. Rafael Nadal, who has been comfortable and confident as he seeks the title in Vina, will open with a qualifier or Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo. He could then face the “warlocq”, Berlocq again if they meet in the Vina final. Rafa could also face Vina quarterfinalist Albert Ramos, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez or Kuznetsov.
Nadal’s Vina semifinal opponent Jeremy Chardy opens with Leo Mayer or wild card Ricardo Mello and then 5 seed Thomaz Bellucci in the quarters (if Bellucci beats a qualifier and the winner of Filippo Volandri/Daniel Gimeno-Traver). Gimeno-Traver is coming off the quarterfinals in Vina.
Nicolas Almagro will return to action after a bit of a layoff, as he faces either a qualifier or current Vina semifinalist Horacio Zeballos. Looking ahead to the quarters, he could get 6 seed Fabio Fognini (coming off a confident Davis Cup showing), Guido Pella, David Nalbandian (who happens to be playing doubles with Nadal), or a qualifier.
Juan Monaco lost his opening round match in Vina Del Mar and will be looking to pick things back up against either Tommy Robredo or Simone Bolelli. The winner of that match could get the Giraldo/Andujar winner, Albert Montanes or Vina quarterfinalist Paolo Lorenzi.
Dark Horse: Fabio Fognini
Fognini should be both rested and confident compared to other players in his section. His first two rounds against Pella and Nalbandian/Qualifer should be somewhat easy and likely quarterfinal opponent Almagro may be a bit rusty having not played since Australia. Zeballos, another possibility, could be fatigued after a strong showing in Vina.
He has a good shot at at least the semis, where likely opponent Monaco has been inconsistent, as have most of the players in that section.
Nadal d. Bellucci
Fognini d. Monaco
Nadal should not have any trouble with Bellucci, who is solid enough on clay and well rested enough to beat Chardy. Fognini should be in good enough form to beat Monaco for the first time.
Nadal d. Fognini
Nadal has looked just fine in his comeback and you really can’t expect anything short of a title against a field like this. He should be undefeated at this point in his comeback.