2017 ATP Montreal Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Rogers Cup is underway in Montreal, it’s part of the US Open Series, and of course one of the ATP Masters 1000 events. The event is top caliber, but many of the ATP’s best are out due to injury including Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka (for the season), and Marin Cilic.
Coupe Rogers
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Montreal, Canada
August 7-13, 2017
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,662,300
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal has won the Rogers Cup three times and faces Borna Coric in round 2. Coric has two previous wins against Rafa and easily beat Mikhail Youzhny to start the tournament, but unless he catches Nadal with a bit of rust Nadal should prevail into round 3. Young Canadian Denis Shapovalov will face off with Juan Martin Del Potro, Shapovalov is a big talent, and plays well under pressure, but Del Potro should hit him off the court after the Argentine beat John Isner in round 1. Nadal should be too good for Del Potro with his defensive skills.
David Goffin dropped a set in round 1 but looks set to face off with Milos Raonic in round 3, he only needs to defeat Hyeon Chung, who found form in an upset win against Feliciano Lopez in round 1, Raonic is a worthy favorite against Adrian Mannarino in round 2, playing at home he should reach at least the quarterfinals as this is one of the biggest events of his season.
Given that Richard Gasquet barely got past local Canadian Brayden Schnur in round 1, Washington champion Alexander Zverev should keep up his winning streak and defeat Gasquet. Nick Kyrgios broke a four match losing streak with a win against Viktor Troicki round 1, he’s a heavy favorite against dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi. Kyrgios has all the talent to reach the quarters, but fellow young gun Zverev is a clear favorite.
Pablo Carreno Busta faces Washington finalist Kevin Anderson, Los Cabos champion Sam Querrey is opposite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Querrey has had a great summer and just beat Tsonga at Wimbledon, presuming he’s not too worn out, Querrey should reach the third round and beat the former Rogers Cup champion, with Anderson serving his way into the quarterfinals, he really enjoys the hard court summer even though Querrey beat him at Wimbledon.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer has won three Rogers Cup titles, Federer should earn his 13th straight victory and defeat wild card Peter Polansky in round 2. Polansky beat his countryman Vasek Pospisil in round 1. David Ferrer beat Kyle Edmund in a long round 1 battle, but against Jack Sock with his lethal forehand he should be outmatched. Sock has four wins in five matches and should make it five out of six. Federer will be the favorite against Sock in round 3, Sock would love to grab that upset though.
With Gael Monfils struggling despite a round 1 comeback win against Steve Johnson, Kei Nishikori will be the favorite in round 2. Nishikori played well enough in Washington to suggest he’ll beat Monfils and either Ryan Harrison or Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. Both players can peak, but Nishikori is the strongest player in this section.
One of the rising young American stars on the US Open Series this summer, Jared Donaldson faces Diego Schwartzman with a shot at the quarterfinals. Donaldson upset Lucas Pouille, while Schwartzman knocked off Dominic Thiem in the opening round. Despite Schwartzman’s massive win, Donaldson will be the favorite. Donaldson beat Benoit Paire in round 2, while Schwartzman beat Reilly Opelka in the opening round.
Robin Haase faces lucky loser Ernesto Escobedo in round 2 after Escobedo upset Nikoloz Basilashvili in round 1. Escobedo has a great shot at the third round with Grigor Dimitrov the strongest player in the section. He faces Mischa Zverev in round 2, Zverev is struggling, thus Dimitrov should reach the quarters.
Predictions
Quarters Nadal d. Raonic
Zverev d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Donaldson
Federer d. Nishikori
With a decimated Rogers Cup field, only Raonic or Nishikori appear likely to upset the apple cart. There may be a surprise semifinalist though if Zverev or Dimitrov struggle.
Semis Nadal d. Zverev
Federer d. Dimitrov
It should be a Rafa vs. Roger final at the Rogers Cup, with Federer the favorite to take the title.
Djokovic Slated to Face Murray in 2015 ATP Rogers Cup Final Leich Sinha for Tennis Atlantic
Semifinal Saturday took place yesterday as Novak Djokovic ended the run of underdog Jeremy Chardy, and Andy Murray ran right past Kei Nishikori to setup a #1 vs #2 seed final, and yet another edition of their rivalry.
If you weren’t following this week’s results, you might have done a bit of a double take upon seeing Jeremy Chardy’s name in today’s semi final. The Frenchman after all was on a five match losing streak prior to this tournament, with his last win dating back to a third round drubbing of David Goffin at Roland Garros, and was unseeded entering this tournament. The benefactor of a snafu in the upper half of the draw during which most top seeds were defeated early, Chardy obtained his spot in the semis by way of narrowly edging out last week’s Citi Open finalist John Isner, where he showed great tenacity in saving 7 match points during a gruelling 3 hour slugfest after having previously defeated Ivo Karlovic, Leonardo Mayer and grass specialist Nicolas Mahut. Today, he found himself in the unenviable position of taking out world number 1 Novak Djokovic for a spot in Sunday’s final.
Novak, to be fair, has not had a perfect tournament, having had to fend off match points of his own in the quarterfinals against a resurgent Ernest Gulbis and suffering from what appears to be tendinitis in his right elbow. Nevertheless, the match played out exactly as expected as Novak cruised through a 6-4, 6-4 victory without facing a single break point. Ever the opportunist, Djokovic seized on Chardy’s early match jitters when the latter’s erratic ball toss motion caused him to double fault twice in a row at the start of the match and subsequently go down a break. Djokovic, from that point on, didn’t need to do much more than hold serve and play his tactical brand of tennis to close out the first set, always keeping Chardy’s best weapon, the forehand, at bay.
The second set proved to be much of the same, with Djokovic rarely missing his shots and engaging in neutral rallies with comfort and peace, secure in the knowledge that Chardy was unlikely to redline his game as long as his rhythm in rallies was disabled. He broke again the 5th game of the 2nd set after correctly guessing a forehand return which he crushed to the open court. The lone break was enough to seal the set and the match.
A day after his marquee straight sets victory over Rafael Nadal, it seemed that Kei Nishikori’s chances of securing a maiden Masters crown improved immeasurably upon that conquest. Nadal was after all the lone scalp of the big four that he’d yet to claim and to have dismissed him in such convincing fashion was surely a sign of the veil being lifted on tennis’ famed oligopoly. His dreams of entering that sacred vanguard were emphatically shattered by Britain’s Andy Murray on Saturday night as the Bolleteri protege was sent packing amidst a chorus of boos in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing before a packed house in Centre Court. Andy Murray, relentless in his pursuit of the break, mercilessly attacked Kei’s serve, often crowding in well inside the baseline to return Nishikori’s 2nd serve which he would invariably eat up and spit out to an untended area of the court.
Nishikori would often be found second guessing himself, pausing a moment to think about placement and strategy, but those brief times of reflection would provide no answer for Murray’s aggressive returning. The two exchanged breaks from the get go with Nishikori himself returning Andy’s 2nd serve quite well and even getting the upper hand in the rallies. But It was his inability to earn free points on serve or even hold serve that set the scene for the destruction. Demoralized by a critical third break in the 8th game of the set, a game which saw him get broken from up 40 love, Nishikori simply threw in the towel, appearing to readily succumb to the physical and mental toll mounting on his body.
In the second set, he would not even attempt to challenge Andy’s serve, preferring to let Andy serve out aces and hit return winners at will. After the match, he was seen limping into the press conference room, no doubt sore from two weeks of tennis, though one could perhaps estimate that the greatest injury came at the expense of his pride.
Nishikori’s had a very good run here and in Washington but there’s lots of work to be done if he wants to be considered a serious contender for the US Openr. As for Andy Murray, his groundstrokes seemed very sharp and he looks to be in great form after delivering two strong performances in a row. He’ll need to clean up a little better on serve if he wants any chance at defeating his rival Novak Djokovic but overall, he’s found his hard court game. Tomorrow’s final should prove to be a very interesting contest.
Previewing the Final
Two world class hard court players will battle once more, with Novak the favorite, as his counterpunching has had the edge over Murray in their last seven meetings.Four previous times they have met this year and though their Roland Garros meeting on clay was close, their three other hard court meetings have strongly favored Djokovic, and with that in mind the world #1 is likely to prevail.
Djokovic, Murray Among Men Making Montreal Quarters Leicin Sinha for Tennis Atlantic
Djokovic (Photo: Courtney Massey)
Djokovic d. Sock 6-2, 6-1
MONTREAL, August 13–The coin toss was about the only event that could possibly have gone Jack Sock’s way today, but even chance wouldn’t dare hedge its bets against the world number 1 as Djokovic toyed with the young American on Thursday afternoon en route to a dominant 6-2, 6-1 victory. It was oddly enough a match that started well for Sock, as he managed to hold his first service game to love and in the 3rd game force Djokovic to genuflect under a barrage of penetrating inside-out forehands to earn himself a break point opportunity.
This would be as close as he’d ever get to even denting the Serb’s armour in the match. Djokovic, regimented by his brilliant economy of movement and the subtle ability to raise his game ever just enough to lull his opponents out of their comfort zone, set out to break down Sock’s offensive game, which, albeit powerful, lacks the touch and variety necessary to trouble Djokovic’s all court mastery. Sock can hit a devastating flat forehand, but he is unable to surfeit that obvious weapon with precision tools that would allow him to set it up more efficiently. As such, once Sock’s power game was nullified, the Serb was able to coax errors from both wings and turn his best weapon against him.
This is not to say that Djokovic didn’t put on a show of his own, he was simply put, brilliant on this day, serving well and hitting great winners from the baseline, including one crosscourt forehand in the final game to go up 40 love. That particular shot would form a near parallel arc with the baseline and will certainly feature in this week’s highlight reel.
Djokovic will face Gulbis in the quarterfinals on Friday afternoon. It goes without saying that he’s the favourite in this matchup.
Murray d. Muller 6-3, 6-2
The second match of the afternoon session featuring #2 seed Andy Murray and big serving lefty Gilles Muller was just as expeditious as the first, lasting a little over an hour. Westerly winds shuffled through the deck which may have accounted for Murray’s erratic ball tossing early on. He immediately staved off 4 break point opportunities in the very first service game, calmly resisting Muller’s aggressive net approaches with his composure and solid groundstrokes.
The rest of the match would fortunately carry far less friction for the Scot who sealed the first break of the match by calmly lobbing the ball past his opponent in the 4th game of the set. This was preceded by a backhand pass that stunned Muller. Murray, serving strongly, would go on to win the first set 6-3.
The tables would reverse in the second set when Muller went down 0-40 on his serve and eventually conceded the break without winning a point. Muller would ultimately lose his concentration from that point on and start leaking errors while allowing Murray to subdue his relentless chip and charge attack. A 3rd double fault gifted Murray a 2nd break which he would immediately return when Muller finally converted a break point on his fifth attempt. However, Muller served poorly for the remainder of the match, throwing two straight double faults to give Murray a third break. Murray closed out the match with a fitting ace for a 6-3, 6-2 victory. He will face last year’s Champion in Toronto, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Opening Wins for Nadal, Nishikori @CoupeRogers Montreal Leich Sinha for Tennis Atlantic
Kei Nishikori (Photo: Christopher Levy @Tennis_Shots)
MONTREAL, August 12, 2015– To the delight of the partisan crowd today and to the surprise of absolutely no one, Nadal won his match in straights. To anyone who’s been carefully attuned to his progression this year, today’s match did little to assuage doubts about his resurgence and raises further questions about his ability to perform against elite opposition.
The matchup was not an ideal one for the former nine-time French Open champion lest he needed to play himself into form, having only had a week to prepare for the hard court season after a successful title run on the clay courts of Hamburg. Stakhovsky, a purveyor of the serve and volley style, was not a foe likely to hang in long rallies and for most of the first set, both traded terse 2-3 shot blows. A double fault in the seventh game of the match allowed Nadal to serve for the set at 6-4 but as has uncharacteristically been his wont this year, he failed to close out the set and the match went into a tiebreak where Nadal hung onto an early mini break to earn the set.
The second set showed flashes of the old Nadal with blistering passing shot winners and an agreeable winner to error ratio, but again, match tightness reared its ugly head again and Nadal squandered an opportunity to close out the match on his serve after being up a two break lead. However, Stakhovsky was never an opponent who could trouble Nadal on this surface and Nadal is certainly good at this winning business. It was a good overall performance by the Spaniard, but certainly not a statement. He next faces Mikhail Youzhny who scored a shockingly lopsided victory against France’s Gilles Simon.
Nadal d. Stakhovsky 7-6(4), 6-3
Nishikori vs. Andujar
A late start on court caused by an onslaught of inclement weather did nothing to abate the haste with which the newly-minted World Number 4 would dispatch of this year’s Barcelona open finalist at Centre Court this afternoon. Employing his trademark compact swing and early ball striking to chop down Andujar’s baseline game, the match served as a near master study in clinical Euclidean ball placement. The afternoon started off precipitously enough for the Japanese star when a double fault in the first game handed him an early break lead. After consolidating the lead, he would commit an untimely double fault of his own on his second service game and gift back the break to Andujar. This proved to be the only minor blip of Kei’s afternoon, as Nishikori would thereafter go on to break Andujar’s serve twice more in the set, including in the final game when Andujar mistimed a backhand slice that never sailed past the net. Andujar, for his part, held his own in rallies, often matching Nishikori’s power and consistency, while hitting exquisite drop volleys when the situation arose. Andujar was mostly undone by a combination of weak serving and an inability to adapt to the pace imposed by Nishikori. Moreover, Nishikori’s second to none twitch muscle reflex and quick thinking caused constant fits to Andujar’s serve. The quality of his return game was best exemplified early in the 2nd set when he pummelled Andujar’s second serve with a deep return that would eventually find its way just short of the baseline giving him the early break, from which point he would never look back.
In general, both players were very successful on net approaches and it’s these approaches that produced the most entertaining moments of the match, including an exchange early in the second set which culminated in a sequence of volleys from Andujar that bore shades of Sampras. Nishikori would earn the victory on his third match point when a return was sent long and will face David Goffin next who won in straight sets against American Sam Querrey.
2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 30 (Montreal) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Montreal
2015 Rogers Cup Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Bellucci, Sock vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Gulbis, Kudla vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Kyrgios, Pospisil vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Chung, Karlovic vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Stakhovsky, Troicki vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Querrey, Andujar vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Sousa, Bautista Agut vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Muller, Lopez vs. Murray Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Karlovic, Nadal vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Muller vs. Murray Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Gasquet, Nadal vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Murray Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Gasquet, Nadal vs. Murray Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Bellucci, Sock vs. Dimitrov, Anderson vs. Thiem, Young vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Verdasco, Pospisil vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Mayer, Karlovic vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Stakhovsky, Troicki vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Klizan, Andujar vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tomic, Bautista Agut vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Muller, Lopez vs. Murray Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Sock, Thiem vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Karlovic, Nadal vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Murray Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Gasquet, Nadal vs. Nishikori, Tsonga vs. Murray Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Murray Final: Djokovic vs. Nishikori Champion: Djokovic
Joe Craven’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Bellucci, Sock vs. Dimitrov, Anderson vs. Gulbis, Young vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Kyrgios, Pospisil vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Mayer, Karlovic vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Stakhovsky, Troicki vs. Simon, Goffin vs. Querrey, Dancevic vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tomic, Bautista Agut vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Muller, Lopez vs. Murray Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Sock, Anderson vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Simon, Goffin vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Murray Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Simon vs. Nishikori, Tsonga vs. Murray Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Murray Final: Djokovic vs. Nishikori Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Cuevas, Sock vs. Dimitrov, Anderson vs. Thiem, Young vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Kyrgios, Pospisil vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Mayer, Karlovic vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Stakhovsky, Troicki vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Querrey, Dancevic vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Sousa, Bautista Agut vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Muller, Robredo vs. Murray Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Sock, Anderson vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Pospisil, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Simon, Johnson vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Murray Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Murray Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Murray Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Bellucci, Sock vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Thiem, Young vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Kyrgios, Pospisil vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Chung, Karlovic vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Stakhovsky, Troicki vs. Simon, Goffin vs. Querrey, Dancevic vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tomic, Bautista Agut vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Muller, Lopez vs. Murray Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Sock, Anderson vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Isner, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Troicki, Goffin vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Murray Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Nishikori, Cilic vs. Murray Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Nishikori vs. Cilic Final: Djokovic vs. Cilic Champion: Djokovic
Novak Djokovic a strong favorite this week with opinions mixed on Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray
2015 ATP Montreal Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Montreal Preview
Rogers Cup
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Montreal, Canada
August 10-August 16, 2015
Prize Money: $3,587,490
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (3)
3: Stan Wawrinka (5)
4: Kei Nishikori (4)
5: Tomas Berdych (6)
6: Marin Cilic (8)
7: Rafael Nadal (9)
8: Milos Raonic (10)
Roger Federer is skipping Montreal this year, while David Ferrer is out with an elbow injury. Otherwise the rest of the ATP top 25 is taking part.
Sock has a solid track record on hard courts this year and has played both of the North American stops this Summer in Atlanta and Washington, reaching the quarters in Washington. The young American continues to rise up the rankings and this match represents a good opportunity for him. Mannarino, a finalist in Bogota, has also had a good record on hard courts this year and took a week off after an early exit in Atlanta. His solid play all season has earned him a career high ranking and this should be a competitive match. Presuming Sock is fit, he should have the edge, though Mannarino is streaky. Sock has a 2-1 h2h edge on hard courts.
(14)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (Q)Alexandr Dolgopolov
Dimitrov has a h2h edge on Dolgopolov but his poor form since splitting with coach Roger Rasheed is evident, as the Bulgarian has failed to progress his game in any manner this season. Grigor had a poor week in Washington, losing round 2, and now he’ll have to face a dangerous shotmaker as he hopes to avoid a round 1 exit in Montreal. Dolgopolov qualified and is 4-1 in his last five matches, thus his form seems better than it was when he plunged down the rankings. This matchup should feature some great ball striking and winner creation, and I not only give Dolgo a chance to advance, I have him winning this one in an upset, as Dimitrov seems lost at the moment.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Nick Kyrgios
The veteran Spanish lefty has had some tough draws in recent tournaments and he returns to hard court tennis with a 7-5 record in 2015. Kyrgios is returning from a poor showing in Davis Cup duty and his consistency and focus has been lacking at times this year outside of Grand Slams. This matchup should feature big hitting and big forehands, and it’s hard to tell the form of ether player, that said I give Kyrgios, if focused, the edge to advance in what should be an exciting match.
(13)David Goffin vs. Steve Johnson
Goffin, who is just 6-5 on hard courts in 2015, is ranked higher than Johnson, but the hard court surface should balance this matchup, and the h2h is split 1-1. Johnson comes into Montreal with a 15-9 hard court record this year, and a semifinal in Washington where he played excellent tennis, as the American continues to improve. This is another matchup where the seed could suffer an early exit, Goffin’s form was good on clay (reached Gstaad final), but Johnson won’t have to switch surfaces and he’s playing great right now, I have Stevie pulling of the upset.
Tsonga is the defending champion of the Rogers Cup, but he could well bow out in round 1 the next year as the young gun Coric is a dangerous opponent. The teenager is 9-8 on outdoor hard in 2015, and upset Andy Murray in Dubai this year. Tsonga struggled in Davis Cup and has barely played on hard courts this year, I still have Jo winning this but it should be close, and he is another seed who could bow out early.
Djokovic’s section:
Three time Rogers Cup champion and undisputed world #1 Novak Djokovic will look to improve on his 25-2 outdoor hard court record in 2015, and he should have a clear path to the quarterfinals. Thomaz Bellucci is likely his first opponent, presuming Bellucci gets past dirtballer Pablo Cuevas like he did in Miami this year, Bellucci took a set off of Novak in Rome on clay this year, but I don’t see that repeating himself. After Bellucci it will be Dolgopolov/Dimitrov or Sock/Mannarino, in an interesting section. I have Dolgopolov beating Dimitrov and Sock before falling to Djokovic like he did in a great Miami match this year (lost in 3 sets).
Tomas Berdych could have a tough time, with Denis Kudla likely to be his first opponent. Kudla, a semifinalist in Atlanta, faces fellow qualifier Donald Young in round 1, and has been in fantastic form over the past couple of months. Dynamite Denis is playing the tennis of his life right now and I wouldn’t put an upset of Berdych past him, that said Berdych is 19-5 on outdoor hard this year and is still the favorite. In round 3 we should see Berdych/Kudla against Kevin Anderson, as Anderson and Berdych tend to find each other in draws.
Anderson suffered a shock loss in Washington early on, but given this is a surface he likes he should recover and beat Lukas Rosol, who simply isn’t as good as him on hard courts, and then the winner of Dominic Thiem/Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis qualified after seeing his ranking drop, and Thiem is one of his best friends on tour, coming off a fantastic run on clay. Thiem is 3-0 against Gulbis since their first meeting, though he may struggle to adjust surface after great results on clay, and I have Gulbis pulling a minor upset before falling to Anderson. Berdych dominates Anderson in the h2h, and thus look for Tomas in the quarters.
Wawrinka’s section:
Stan the man Wawrinka could bow out to Kyrgios/Verdasco right off the bat, though he handled Kyrgios well on grass when they met earlier this year. Wawrinka struggles with consistency compared to the other top 5 players, but so do Kyrgios and Verdasco and it’s a hard section to predict. That said Wawrinka is 10-3 on hard this year and I don’t trust Kyrgios to keep his cool thus I have it Wawrinka vs. John Isner round 3.
Isner, the champion in Atlanta and a finalist in Washington, may be fatigued but he’s playing fantastic on the US Open series and his booming serve should push him bast Benjamin Becker, who hasn’t been healthy recently, and the winner of Rendy Lu/Vasek Pospisil. Big John is now 16-5 on hard courts in 2015 and he just beat Pospisil, his likely round 2 opponent, at the Citi Open. A fresher Wawrinka likely has the edge on Isner in round 3, but with the American serving so well right now, he could be a dark horse. I have Wawrinka in the quarters myself. Isner is 2-1 against Wawrinka in the h2h but they haven’t played in multiple seasons.
Milos Raonic, the home hero, has a tough opening match ahead against either Jerzy Janowicz or Ivo Karlovic, likely Karlovic who has been in great form in recent tournaments. Big servers will collide, and this is another matchup where the seed could go out. I have Karlovic reaching round 3 where he is likely to face Richard Gasquet. Gasquet opens with Jeremy Chardy, his countryman (2-0 h2h) and then will face the Hyeon Chung/Leo Mayer winner. Gasquet, who lost round 2 in Washington, is a better hard court player than Mayer, and the qualifier Chung is still an inexperienced young gun. Chung is in good form so I have him upsetting Mayer before falling to Gasquet. Gasquet has won his last three meetings against Karlovic, and I also see him beating Raonic if Raonic blazes the same path, so I have Gasquet reaching the quarters. Both Raonic and Gasquet are former finalists at the Rogers Cup.
Nishikori’s section:
Washington champ Kei Nishikori is in excellent form and has an easy early draw that should allow him to conserve his energy a bit. He should roll past Pablo Andujar/Frank Dancevic and do the same to Goffin/Johnson unless he’s fatigued, as I don’t feel either player is up to his caliber, though both are quality ballstrikers and could trouble him. The winner of Goffin/Johnson faces Martin Klizan/Sam Querrey round 2, both of whom are inconsistent big hitters. I have Johnson beating Querrey before falling to Nishikori. Nishikori beat Johnson this year in Brisbane.
Three time Rogers Cup champion Rafael Nadal is also in this section, but he’s a rather pedestrian 8-4 on hard courts in 2015, he last played on clay where he took the title in Hamburg. Rafa should be able to defeat Sergiy Stakhovsky or young Canadian Filip Peliwo, a wild card, but Gilles Simon could prove trouble in the third round. Simon has been competitive on hard courts this year and he faces a possibly injured Andreas Seppi round 1, and then likely Viktor Troicki, who he dominates the h2h with in round 2. Troicki will face qualifier Mikhail Youzhny, who found some form this weekend after a bad slump, in round 1. Nadal would have the edge against Troicki, and also should beat Simon who he is 7-1 against in the h2h. As long as Rafa has himself healthy and together look for him in the quarterfinals.
Murray’s section:
Andy Murray suffered a shock loss to journeyman Teymuraz Gabashvili in Washington but he’s still won the Rogers Cup title twice and had an excellent season, hard courts included. In his first Montreal match he’ll face either Feliciano Lopez or Tommy Robredo, Robredo has barely played on hard courts this year, but Lopez isn’t in great form and has a poor h2h record. I have Murray beating Lopez in round 2 and pushing his h2h to 11-0 before beating either Gilles Muller or Gael Monfils in round 3. Tbe big serving Atlanta semifinalist Muller is in good form and should defeat Canadian wild card Philip Bester to setup a meeting with Monfils. Monfils faces Fabio Fognini, who hasn’t won a hard court match this year, round 1, before Muller. It’s tough to predict a winner there, but I have Muller pulling it out, before falling to Murray, who beat him on hard courts and grass this year. Murray vs. Monfils, if it were to happen, would be highly entertaining though with speed on showcase. It has to be mentioned Monfils and Fognini are both entertainers on court, and it should be a fun, though possibly clownish round 1 match.
Look for Washington semifinalist Marin Cilic to continue his good form as he preps to defend the US Open title, and defeat either Bernard Tomic, who is inconsistent and lost right now on court, or Joao Sousa in his first match. After that it should be Cilic against Tsonga/Coric unless Roberto Bautista Agut interrupts proceedings in round 2. RBA has a poor hard court record this year, but should build confidence with a win over the struggling Janko Tipsarevic round 1. I see Cilic over Tsonga in the third round after Tsonga beats RBA. Cilic is in better form and has won his last three meetings against the Frenchman.
Dark Horses: Denis Kudla, Ivo Karlovic, Steve Johnson, Gilles Muller
A crop of hard court players should serve as dark horses for the Rogers Cup. Kudla is in the form of his life and if he can upset Berdych he could reach the quarters. Karlovic with his tricky and powerful serve could upset Raonic and Gasquet to reach the quarters, and perhaps Wawrinka as well to the reach the semis.
Kudla’s fellow American Johnson would need to get past Goffin and Nishikori, but if Kei is fatigued he could also reach the quarters. The same goes for Gilles Muller, who would need to upset Monfils and Murray. He’s a big server like Ivo and when he’s on, tiebreaks tend to decide matches, a those are always risky propositions, even for top players.
Quarterfinals: Djokovic d. Berdych
Gasquet d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Nishikori
Murray d. Cilic
Novak dominates the h2h with Berdych, including this season, Gasquet vs. Wawrinka is probably the most competitive quarterfinal if it takes place, and it should feature fantastic backhands. I have Gasquet pulling off an upset because Wawrinka may be a bit rusty and Gasquet won their Wimbledon meeting not long ago.
Nadal is 7-0 against Nishikori, and Kei is likely fatigued, Nadal is great at returning and chasing balls around, thus I give him the edge in what could be a good hard court tournament for him. Murray has the h2h edge pretty consistently over Cilic, and I don’t feel the poor match in D.C. was a genuine concern for him, so I have him sorting things out and reaching the semis.
Semifinals: Djokovic d. Gasquet Murray d. Nadal
Djokovic could avenge his loss to Wawrinka in the Roland Garros final, but I have him beating Gasquet instead, as he’s simply the better player and it’s shown in their meetings. Murray should be superior to Nadal on hard courts.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Djokovic is the clear favorite for this title, especially with Federer absent. Murray fights hard against Novak and could win, but he’s a heavy underdog if this is the final, and I have Novak taking the 2015 Rogers Cup.
After Milos Raonic checked himself into the Citi Open semifinals in Washington with a 7-6(2), 6-2 win over Steve Johnson on Friday, most of us wanted to talk about his big serve, Rogers Cup and Vasek Pospisil’s run.
But one practitioner wanted to talk about the recent “Best Hair” commentary from Darren Cahill and Brad Gilbert of ESPN. Now Milos is so uber-managed and self-restrained that some fans are left wondering if he’s even human sometimes. His uber-management does its best to limit his 1-on-1 video exposure to everyone but the Big Press.
So the only time some get to check his pulse is at tournaments Town Hall-style press conferences, where everyone’s invited.
Thank the good doctor for her work in tonight in diagnosing Raonic’s funny bone as still slightly functional. It was awkward and awesome, like a failed ‘Make Me Laugh’- so hilarious because he didn’t crack up. But he did give a little reflexive kick to ESPN in the end.
