2015 ATP Umag, Bogota, and Bastad Previews and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

Three 250 level events will take place on the ATP World Tour this week, two on clay in Umag and Bastad, both in Europe, and the other on hard courts in South America. Tennis Atlantic is pleased to provide on-site coverage of Umag this week, and here is a preview of all the ATP tennis action.

ATP Umag

2015 ATP Umag Preview

Konzum Croatia Open Umag
ATP World Tour 250
Umag, Croatia
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gael Monfils (17)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
3: Andreas Seppi (26)
4: Dominic Thiem  (28)

An interesting and diverse group of seeds in Umag should make for an interesting week.

First round matchups to watch:

(6)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Santiago Giraldo

Giraldo, who is surprisingly playing here instead of at home in Colombia this week after Davis Cup, has the h2h advantage in this match, but Kohlschreiber has had the superior season and should be the slight favorite to advance on clay. After a great year last year it’s been a rough go of things for Santi this year. The style matchup will be interested as the Peppo backhand goes up against the Giraldo forehand. The fact Kohli is fresher will also help.

(5)Fabio Fognini vs. Jiri Vesely

Fognini beat Vesely this year in a crazy match in Rio on clay, and now Vesely is seeking revenge. Fognini wasn’t particularly great on clay back in the spring when he wasn’t playing Rafael Nadal, but the party atmosphere in Umag will either suit him, or distract the mercurial Italian. The match should be on Fogna’s racquet, and I have him advancing.

(7)Borna Coric vs. Marcel Granollers

The Croatian young gun Coric is now seeded at his home nation tournament and he could well make some noise if he maintains his clay court form from the Spring. Granollers is a relatively pedestrian singles player these days, though clay is his best surface, and hopefully Coric will be focused enough to grab an opening round win.

Top Half:

Gael Monfils, the top seed, will open with either nearly retired Mikhail Youzhny or a qualifier, the Frenchman is 10-4 on clay this season and thus should smoothly reach the quarterfinals to face Giraldo/Kohlschreiber. The winner of that match will take on Paolo Lorenzi or a qualifier, and I expect a Monfils vs. Kohlschreiber quarterfinal. Monfils dominates the h2h and has a 2-0 record this year against Peppo, and thus I have him reaching the semis.

Dominic Thiem, one of the young guns in this years Umag field, comes off of two bad losses in Davis Cup play on clay against the Dutch. Thiem’s poor form appears to be mental, more than physical, but he still could be troubled by Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier in round 2. Thiem should benefit from a weak section, as his quarterfinal opponent if he beats Lajovic will be one of Pablo Carreno Busta/Martin Klizan/Andreas Haider-Maurer/qualifier. Klizan has been struggling, though he played well in Davis Cup, and Carreno Busta just took a title on the challenger tour, so I have it as a PCB vs. AHM 2nd round match (due to Klizan’s DC hangover) and then I have AHM, who did win a Davis Cup match on clay this weekend, getting through that. He’s had a deceptively good season as a dirtballer and tends to have streaky form.

For the AHM vs. Thiem All-Austrian quarterfinal, I have Haider-Maurer advancing by virtue of Thiem’s likely fatigue and poor form as the veteran should outclass the young gun.

Bottom Half:

Roberto Bautista Agut, who is 10-7 on clay in 2015, should be able to defeat the winner of Andrey Rublev/Blaz Kavcic in round 2. Rublev comes off of winning a 5th rubber to send Russia into the World Group playoffs ahead of mighty Spain but the young gun wild card could be fatigued against Kavcic, who isn’t at his best on clay. I have Rublev beating Kavcic due to surface, as he should recover quickly given his youth, but RBA should avenge the Spain defeat to reach the quarterfinals. There I’d expect him to face the home young gun Coric, who has to beat Granollers, and then Mate Delic/Aljaz Bedene in round 2. Bedene is in good form, but Coric should be the superior player.

Given it’s in Croatia, I have the young gun Coric scoring a minor upset ranking wise over RBA, who has been down this year, and reaching the semifinals.

Andreas Seppi, who has had consistent success in Umag before, will open with Joao Sousa or wild card Toni Androic, Sousa, who had a succesful Davis Cup weekend, reached a clay final before RG, and should defeat Androic, but Seppi will be a tougher opponent. That said he’s a poor 0-2 on clay this year while Sousa is 8-7, and I have the Portugese scoring an upset to reach the quarterfinals. Fognini/Vesely will face Damir Dzumhur/Lukas Rosol round 2, Rosol is probably a slight favorite to reach round 2, but I’d figure Fognini would be in the quarters if he doesn’t implode.

Fognini has a clay court h2h win over Sousa, and he’s the better clay courter, but once again it depends on his head as to whether he will reach the semifinals and beyond.

Dark Horse: Andreas Haider-Maurer

Joao Sousa, and Jiri Vesely could both make runs this week, but AHM is actually a small favorite to reach the quarters in my book. The 28 year old has semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this year, and Umag should be another place he takes advantage of a weak draw and bursts through to the semis as long as Thiem struggles as expected.

Predictions

Semis:
Monfils d. Haider-Maurer
Coric d. Fognini

Monfils beat AHM in Stuttgart this year on grass and he’s the better player all around, thus I expect him, or Kohlschreiber, to reach the final. Last year in Umag Fognini beat Coric, but given their recent form I have that result reversing itself and Coric reaching an ATP final on home soil.

Final:
Monfils d. Coric

Monfils and Coric have never met, but if the Frenchman reaches the final he should be the favorite given his abilities.

ATP Bogota

2015 ATP Bogota Preview

Claro Open Colombia
ATP World Tour 250
Bogota, Colombia
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: $683,515

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (24)
2: Bernard Tomic (25)
3: Adrian Mannarino (35)
4: Victor Estrella (43)

Once again Bogota lacks a big name, or even a top 20 player, making it one of the weaker 250 level events on tour.

First round matchups to watch:

Alejandro Falla vs. Rajeev Ram

There are a host of weak, and disinteresting R1 matchups in Bogota, but this one has the potential to be worth a watch. Ram, normally a doubles specialist these days, and a journeyman in singles, once again found his serve and volley form on grass in Newport and took the title. Falla is playing on home soil and tends to do well with the altitude. His form isn’t great, but he does well in Bogota, and with that in mind he probably will defeat a tired Ram, unless his serve and volley works again.

Top Half:

Ivo Karlovic has a title in Bogota and is 8-1 at the tournament, his big serve consistently seems to find success in the quick conditions, and he should serve past the winner of Pere Riba/Daniel Elahi Galan, a wild card, to setup a quarterfinal meeting with Sam Groth. Groth, another big server who volleys to go along with that, helped Australia reach the Davis Cup semis, and like Karlovic comes off of grass, though jetlag and fatigue may be an issue. His round 1 match against dirtballer Guido Pella looks easy on paper, and if he wins that, he should beat serve and volleyer Radek Stepanek, or Edouard Roger-Vasselin round 2. Stepanek really seems to be struggling at his advanced age, so I have Groth over ERV in round 2.

Karlovic should beat Groth do the fact his similar playstyle is slightly superior, and he should be less fatigued. Expect two or three tiebreaks honestly. Karlovic was the finalist in Newport and lost in a final round tiebreak.

Adrian Mannarino will face the Ram/Falla winner in round 2, the Newport quarterfinalist is a solid 13-6 on hard courts this year while Falla is just 4-4, it’s hard to pick against Falla in Bogota given the unique conditions, but Mannarino with his loopy game should have enough to get through that match and reach the quarters. There he will face one of Malek Jaziri/Austin Krajicek/John Millman/Qualifier, as a  qualifier could well reach the quarters. Jaziri struggles to stay in shape, Krajicek is struggling in general, and Millman has always had talent but has failed to live up to expectations. I have Millman beating Jaziri in round 2 to reach the quarters, and then Mannarino beating Millman to reach the semis.

Bottom Half:

Bernard Tomic, who crashed out of Newport, then was arrested in Miami, got bailed out, and is now playing in Bogota, will face Adrian Menendez-Maceiras/Alejandro Gonzalez round 2. Tomic is the defending champion, and a talented tennis player, but with all of the turmoil in his personal life, I’m not sure he’ll do much more than collect a check here. AMM is better than the home Colombian Gonzalez on hard courts (and AG has DC fatigue), and I have him beating  Tomic as well because of the personal issues.

If healthy and fit, Marcos Baghdatis should benefit, the 5 seed opens with a qualifier, then Tatsuma Ito, a journeyman, or a qualifier, in round 2. Baghdatis has the talent and the game to reach the semis and he’s 11-7 on hard courts this year, thus I have him beating a qualifier, and Ito, then Menendez or Tomic to reach the semis.

Victor Estrella, who tends to play well in South America, and isn’t a bad hard court player, though he prefers clay, will open with Nico Barrientos, a wild card, or Yuichi Sugita. Estrella should be able to reach the semis, presuming a successful Davis Cup weekend didn’t fatigue him, and improve on his 0-4 hard court record this year. After his opening match, he’ll face either James Ward/Michael Berrer or hard courter Illya Marchenko. Berrer should beat tired Davis Cupper Ward with his serve and volley game, and I also have him slipping past Marchenko before falling to Estrella.

Dark Horse: Alejandro Falla

Any number of players could break through this week, but you can’t count Falla out on home soil in the unique high altitude conditions of Bogota. Even when his form has been poor and he’s been a run of the mill player, he tends to find success here and if he beats Mannarino anything could happen.

Predictions:

Semis:
Karlovic d. Mannarino
Baghdatis d. Estrella

Karlovic beat Mannarino in Bogota in 2013, and this year in Delray Beach, both on hard courts. Baghdatis should win the battle of the veterans in the semis, and benefit from Tomic’s personal problems to reach the final.

Final:
Karlovic d. Baghdatis

Baghdatis is 2-0 against Karlovic this year, but in these quick and hot conditions Dr. Ivo should take advantage and serve up another Bogota title after his disappointment of dropping the final in Newport.

ATP Bastad

2015 ATP Bastad Preview

Skistar Swedish Open
ATP World Tour 250
Bastad, Sweden
July 20-July 26, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Goffin (14)
2: Tommy Robredo (21)
3: Pablo Cuevas (27)
4: Juan Monaco (30)

Bastad draws a top 20 player and has a solid 250 level field for clay.

First round matchups to watch:

(5)Fernando Verdasco vs. Nicolas Almagro

A battle of Spanish veterans, the big hitters have met plenty of times, and last year they split meetings, with Verdasco having an overall h2h advantage. Verdasco also won their 2013 Bastad quarterfinal meeting and given Almagro’s relatively poor recent form, I’d tip him as having the edge to win this match too to extend his h2h record.

(6)Thomaz Bellucci vs. (WC)Elias Ymer

Geneva champ Thomaz Bellucci will look to continue his clay court 250 level success in Bastad, and he’ll be facing off with young Swede Elias Ymer. Ymer has won a challenger title on clay this year and he’s a relatively solid all-courter but he’s still learning and adapting to the ATP level, and thus Bellucci is the favorite.

Luca Vanni vs. Albert Ramos

A struggling Luca Vanni will face an in-form Albert Ramos in a battle of clay courters. Vanni has broken through to the ATP level this year with serve and slice game, while Ramos’s top spin game has been doing damage on the challenger tour on clay. Presuming he’s fit enough, Ramos should advance from this interesting match.

Top Half:

David Goffin will face off with Benoit Paire or wild card Markus Eriksson in round 2, presuming Paire prevails, he has a 1-1 h2h with Goffin and given Goffin’s excellent form as of late, including in Davis Cup, he should at least reach the quarterfinals. There he could face Almagro/Verdasco unless the young Argentine Diego Schwartzman spoils the party. Schwartzman opens with Denis Istomin, and though he should win that given it’s clay, his poor loss in Davis Cup over the weekend suggest to me Verdasco has the inside track for the quarters. Verdasco has two h2h wins over Goffin, but the Belgian is in better form, and thus I have him ousting the 2013 finalist to reach the semis.

Defending champion Pablo Cuevas is solid on clay and should defeat Federico Delbonis/qualifier, and then Daniel Gimeno-Traver in the quarterfinals. DGT has had a solid season, but he’s not in the best of form right now, while Darcis comes off of Davis Cup duty but normally doesn’t favor clay. Cuevas’s likely round 2 opponent Delbonis normally doesn’t perform strongly at the ATP level though he likes clay, while Jerzy Janowicz, who DGT could face round 2, presuming he beats a qualifier, is in poor spirits right now and doesn’t prefer clay with a 1-4 record this year on the surface. He also comes off a fatigue inducing Davis Cup weekend.

Cuevas is 2-0 against DGT in the h2h and overall superior in ranking, talent, and on this surface, thus I have him in the semis. Both Cuevas and Delbonis played Davis Cup this weekend, and fatigue could be what limits the Cuevas result.

Bottom Half:

Two-time Champion Tommy Robredo comes off of Davis Cup duty and could be slayed by the Ramos/Vanni winner right off the bat. Ramos beat Robredo in Bastad in 2013, and I think he will repeat that showing given the veteran’s poor form as of late. In the quarters, it should be Ramos vs. Jeremy Chardy, who opens with a qualifier, unless Ernests Gulbis somehow catches fire. The Latvian who has now slumped outside the top 80, opens with Turk Marsel Ilhan, and then should face Chardy round 2. Chardy beat Gulbis this year in Marseille (2-3 h2h) and his clay court abilities should be enough to reach the quarters.

Ramos has a h2h win over Chardy, and with his better form I have the Spaniard in the semis.

Pico Monaco will face a qualifier or Alex Zverev in round 2 and his 13-8 clay court record this year should be enough to defeat Zverev. After that Bellucci is the favorite for the quarters presuming Ymer doesn’t trip him up. Neither wild card Christian Lindell or Joao Souza appear to be a difficult round 2 opponent. Monaco and Bellucci have a split 2-2 h2h, and I have Bellucci advancing by a small margin for the semis.

Dark Horse: Albert Ramos

The unseeded Ramos could catch fire and take this clay court title presuming he can beat Robredo and use that to power himself through to the semis. Bellucci/Monaco will be beatable in the semis, and from there anything could happen.

Predictions:

Semis:
Goffin d. Cuevas
Bellucci d. Ramos

Goffin is in better form than what would be a tired Cuevas and Bellucci beat Ramos this year in Geneva on clay.

Final:
Goffin d. Bellucci

I’d expect Goffin’s form, and superior talent to push the undersized ball striker through to this title on clay.