The Swedish home favorite will face the battling Spanish veteran in a match that could go either way. Both have had shown decent form at the challenger level, but have been poor in ATP play. I favor Ymer, a rising talent, because he’s playing at home.
Top Half:
David Ferrer is the top seed. After facing a qualifier, he should get either Aljaz Bedene or Dustin Brown in a routine quarterfinal matchup. Bedene opens with wild card Isak Arvidsson, while Brown faces a struggling Daniel Munoz De La Nava. Given this is clay, Ferrer over Bedene is my pick. Although Ferrer struggled at Wimbledon, he’s set to improve on clay against this weak Bastad field.
Albert Ramos, an RG quarterfinalist, looks set to reach the quarterfinals, although Roberto Carballes Baena could trouble him in round 2, presuming he defeats Michael Berrer in round 1. Both are dirtballers, though Ramos has a better resume. Karen Khachanov/Evgeny Donskoy and Andrea Arnaboldi/Marco Trungelliti are also in this section for the quarterfinals. Based off recent challenger form, Trungelliti over Khachanov in round 2 is my pick before Ramos beats one of them for the semifinal spot.
A decent clay courter, Joao Sousa should defeat either Swedish wild card Fred Simonsson or Carl Soderlund to reach the quarterfinals. Horacio Zeballos is likely to be opposite him at that stage, as Zeballos opens with Taro Daniel, with Gastao Elias or a qualifier in round 2. Zeballos just won the Bastad challenger and is in good form, thus I have him reaching the quarterfinals, but falling to Sousa to fatigue at that stage.
The Montanes/Ymer winner will face Fernando Verdasco or a qualifier, with Verdasco favored to win that match and end up opposite Facundo Bagnis or Marcel Granollers in the quarterfinals. Bagnis will need to defeat a struggling Jurgen Zopp in round 1. I have Granollers over Verdasco, after he defeats Bagnis. The Spaniard has been in better recent form than his countryman, and Verdasco could even lose to Montanes or Ymer in round 2.
Given his recent success in Bastad’s challenger, he could get through his section and upset Sousa, the weakest top 4 seed on clay, to reach the semifinals. The Argentine has shown flashes of talent and promise, but has failed to cement himself as a regular on the ATP tour through the years.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Ramos
Granollers d. Sousa
Ramos has never defeated Ferrer, while Sousa has a win over Granollers this year on clay, but I feel Marcel is the stronger player at the moment, this pair have a heated history.
Final:
Ferrer d. Granollers
Despite Ferrer’s recent poor play, he’s still the tournament favorite for this small 250. He desperately needs some confidence boosting wins.
Sijsling, Robert, Ymer and Berlocq Advance in ATP Qualifying Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
Sijs
Igor Sijsling heads the field of qualifiers in the BMW Open
It isn’t every day that players on the ATP Tour have to contend with the threat of snow disrupting their matches, but this is what happened during qualifying at the BMW Open in Munich.
Despite the burst of snow showers, four players managed to book their places in the main draw on Sunday. Only one seed managed to progress to the main draw in Germany. Second seed Igor Sijsling started his qualifying journey against Andrey Golubev. The Dutch player crushed Golubev 6-2, 6-1, winning 86% of his total service points. Sijsling encountered a much tougher second round meeting against fifth seed Jozef Kovalik. Kovalik defeated Austrian wildcard Alexander earlier in his opening match. The final round of qualifying was far from plain sailing for Sijsling. Despite dropping his service three times, he managed to grab the win in straight sets, 7-6(4), 6-4, after two hours of play.
Sijsling will now play in his first ATP main draw this year and his first since the 2015 BNP Paribas Masters. The 28-year-old currently has a win-loss of 39-65 on the ATP tour (a 38% winning rate).
The qualifying draw in Munich saw a trio of triumphs for home players. The most significant of the three achievements was wild card entrant Cedrik-Marcel Stebe. Stebe is a former top-100 player whose career has been affected by injury and hip surgery. In February this year he played his first match in almost 18 months in a Turkish Futures tournament. The German has been sidelined from action due to osteitis pubis, a noninfectious inflammation of the pubis symphysis.
Playing his first ATP qualifying event since the 2013 US Open, Stebe upset eighth seed Peter Gojowcyzk 6-1, 7-6(5), in the first round. Awaiting Stebe in the second round was Nils Langer, who stunned top seed Mirza Basic in his first match. Stebe was victorious in the all-German marathon, winning 2-6, 7-6(2), 6-4.
Matthias Bachinger defeated two German seeds to reach his first ATP main draw since June. Bachinger was playing in his first tournament since September due to injury. In his successful comeback from injury, the world No.33 produced straight sets win over third seed Daniel Brands and seventh seed Tobias Kamke.
The final injury-plagued player to triumph in qualifying was Florian Mayer. The 32-year-old hasn’t played on the tour since the US Open due to a hip injury. Aided by seven aces, the world No.268 defeated France’s Vincent Millot 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, to reach the main draw.
Mixed fortunes for Argentine players in Istanbul qualifying as Carlos Berlocq triumphs
The qualifying draw at the Istanbul Open could easily be mistaken for a South American tournament with three of the top five seeds comprising of Argentine players.
The top seed at the tournament was world No. 137 Maximo Gonzalez. The 32-year-old has won five main draw matches this year and is yet to win back-to-back matches in a main draw of a tournament in 2016. Gonzalez will not have a chance of extending his streak to six in Istanbul after suffering a shock loss in qualifying. After coming through a tough three sets win against world No.314 Tomislav Krkic, he faced Romania’s Adrian Ungur. He was unable to live up to his top seed status after crashing out 6-3, 7-5.
The qualifying triumph is a much needed boost to Ungur’s poor start to 2016. Since winning a Challenger title in Sibiu (Romania) last year, he has only managed to win two matches. The Romanian will play in his first ATP main draw since the 2014 Bucharest Open.
Carlos Berlocq was the highest seed to progress to the main draw in what was a roller coaster qualifying experience for the Argentine. In his opening match, the world No.153 required over three hours to see off Dimitar Kuzmanov 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-5. Berlocq, who achieved a ranking best of 37th in 2012, enjoyed another stern test in the second round against sixth seed Alessandro Giannessi. In a match lasting over two hours, Berlocq battled his way past the Italian 7-6(3), 6-3, to progress to the main draw, where he will be bidding to grab his first win on the ATP Tour this year.
18-year-old Andrew Rublev overcame a blip to triumph in Istanbul. Earlier this year, the Russian claimed his first Challenger title in Quimper, France. Since then, Rublev has encountered a slow start to the clay court season after failing to qualify for the Casablanca Open and then losing in the first round of Monte-Carlo Masters to German talent Alexander Zverev. In his third event of the year on clay, the teenager recovered from a first set slump to crush seventh seed Marius Copil 4-6, 6-0, 6-3.
Rublev is currently at a ranking best of 154th in the world. He first rose to prominence after winning the 2014 French Open Boys’ title.
Completing the list of qualifiers is another Argentine, Renzo Olivo. The 24-year-old has already produced solid results on the clay this year. At the Ecuador Open he reached the quarterfinals as a qualifier and he has reached the second round of the Buenos Aires Open. Unlike the three other qualifiers, Renzo was the only man to book his place in the main stage of the tournament without dropping a set. Starting his campaign with a 6-4, 7-6(4), win over Michal Konecny, Renzo faced Ivan Nedelko in the final round. Nedelko is a Russian player who plays mainly on the Challenger and Futures circuit. The Russian was no match for Renzo as he eased to a 6-4, 6-3, victory.
Stephane Robert and Elias Ymer progress to the main draw in Estoril
The second edition of the Estoril Open at the Clube de Ténis saw mixed emotions for the stars of the tournaments qualifying draw. Only two top-five players managed to progress to the main draw.
Headlining the field was world No.104 Albert Montanes, who recently reached his first ATP semifinal in Marrakesh since the 2014 Nice Open. The Spaniard was stunned in the opening round by world No. 240 Salvatore Caruso, a player who has won only three Italian Futures titles in his career.
The unexpected win by Caruso moved him to an all-Italian encounter with seventh seed Andrea Arnaboldi. Arnaboldi has endured a disappointing start to the year by winning only three of his 11 main draw matches. Facing Caruso, the world No.170 saved a match point in the second set to win 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3, in a match lasting almost three hours. The tough win had earned the seventh seed a place in his first ATP main draw since the Bastad Open last July.
French veteran Stephane Robert was the highest seed to win both rounds of qualifying. The 35-year-old has already won two Challenger titles this year in India and Mexico and recently won two rounds of qualifying at the Monte-Carlo Masters. At Estoril he dismissed compatriot Alexandre Sidorenko in straight sets to face Farrukh Dustov. The Uzbek player stunned fourth seed Kenny de Schepper in his first round match. Robert was on the verge of exiting the tournament after trailing 3-6, 0-2 to Dustov. The Frenchman was able to turn his fortunes around to win 3-6, 6-4, 6-1. Robert will play in the main draw of the tournament for the second consecutive year. Last year he lost in the first round to Nicolas Almagro.
Elias Ymer continued his surge in form on the clay by defeating Croatia’s Franko Skugor 4-6, 6-1, 6-4, in the final round of qualifying in Portugal. Ymer is currently at a career ranking best of 123rd in the world after winning his maiden Challenger title in Barletta, Italy. The Swede was also granted a wildcard into last week’s Barcelona Open, where he lost in three sets to Thiemo de Bakker.
The lowest ranked player to qualify was Canada’s Steven Diez. The Canadian has enjoyed multiple success on the Futures tour this year by reaching the final of six tournaments, winning titles in three of them. Diez was able to convert his Futures success to ATP Tour delight with an impressive opening qualifying win against Luca Vanni. The 25-year-old crushed the fourth seed 6-1, 6-2. In round two he faced Argentine eighth seed Marco Trungelliti. The Canadian underdog won 64% of his service points and fended off 3 of 4 break points to upset the Argentine 6-3, 6-2.
Diez will now play in only his second ATP main draw after the 2014 Atlanta Open.
2016 Sarasota, Gwangju and Barletta Challenger Recaps Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Sarasota
Top seed Denis Kudla was upset by his countryman Noah Rubin in the first round, losing a marathon three-set match after missing a match point, 7-5 2-6 7-6(8). Rubin followed up with a win over Gonzalo Lama in the second round, after which he was convincingly beaten Guilherme Clezar, 6-3 6-0. Fifth seed Tim Smyczek lost to Frances Tiafoe in the first round, 6-4 6-3, although that wasn’t really an upset. Third seed Gerald Melzer was the only seed in the top half to move past the first round, eventually beating Clezar in the semi-final after the Brazilian was forced to retire down in the third set at 6-7(4) 6-4 3-2, because of a quad strain.
In the bottom half, second seed Diego Schwartzman couldn’t break his patch of bad form in recent times, losing to Henri Laaksonen in the second round, 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4. Laaksonen lost to Mischa Zverev in the quarterfinal, 2-6 6-3 7-5, after which the older brother of Alexander also dispatched sixth seed Bjorn Fratangelo in the semi-final, 6-2 6-4. Zverev continued his great run in the final against Melzer, Jurgen’s younger brother, beating the Austrian 6-4 7-6(2) in this battle of lesser-known brothers. It meant the fifth career title for Zverev, rising thirty-one spots to #131 in the rankings. Melzer rose ten spots to #112, a career high ranking.
Challenger Sarasato: Stark! Mischa Zverev gewinnt das Endspiel in drei Sätzen gegen Gerald Melzer!! #Tennispic.twitter.com/rVM90viRfW
Judging by top seed Ricardas Berankis’ scorelines in this tournament, you would think he played a Futures event. The skill gap between the world #80 and his opponents, all ranked outside of the top 150, was simply too high. Little can be said. Berankis dropped only fourteen games on his way to the semi-final and not a lot was added to that count when he faced two seeded players in Di Wu (#4) and Grega Zemlja (#6, beat #2 seed Tatsuma Ito 6-4 6-3 in the semi-final), respectively beating them 6-4 6-1 and 6-3 6-2 to win his sixth title. He rose eighteen ranking spots, landing at a career high #62. Zemlja rose twenty-eight spots to #161.
The top two seeds were far from upholding their seeding in this event. Rogerio Dutra Silva, the top seed, lost 7-6(5) 6-4 to Jurgen Zopp in the quarterfinal, while second seed Roberto Carballes Baena lost 5-7 6-4 6-4 to Alessandro Giannessi in the second round. Zopp lost his semi-final to eighth seed Elias Ymer, who turned twenty last week, 6-2 6-4. Third seed Adam Pavlasek recovered well from his tough victory over Marton Fucsovics in the second round, 5-7 6-4 6-3, beating qualifiers Lorenzo Sonego and Enrique Lopez-Perez respectively 6-2 6-0 and 6-1 6-3 to reach the final. There Ymer was too strong, however, with the Swede winning 7-5 6-4 to take down his second title. He rose nineteen spots to a career high ranking of #123, while Pavlasek rose twelve spots to #108, a career high ranking as well.
Day 4 Qualifying Report From Roland Garros 2015 Stefano Berlincioni for Tennis Atlantic
My last day at Roland Garros, an unbelievable experience for me.
Started the day at Marco Cecchinato- Michael Berrer. The Italian was dictating every rally at the beginning of the match but as soon as he took the lead for 4-2 he had to face an improved Berrer. Cecchinato suddenly lost the plot and on 4-4 literally mentally checked-out and regrouped a bit only at 4-6 0-3. He kept shouting to his box “He is not missing a single ball”.
I greatly enjoyed Gasparyan’s one handed backhand and Glatch’s classy tennis.
Elias Ymer played another solid match even if he almost choked in the end, here is the short video of final point
I watched for a while Gastao Elias-Facundo Arguello. Elias was very nervous from 7-5 5-2, he started being less aggressive and Arguello sensed his opponent choking. They went to the tiebreak where Arguello played terrible tennis and at changeover over made a sign to his box miming “We can go home now”. He double faulted on mp. Arguello will not be going home however, as he reached the main draw as a lucky loser, and his reward is Andy Murray. Elias will face Benoit Paire.
Arguello at 1-5 changeover made a sign to his box….like we can go home
I moved to Luca Vanni-Andrey Golubev for their third set. Vanni was always the second best in rallies and had to save 0-30 on 0-0 and on 1-1 and also 15.40 on 3-3. He broke from nowhere Golubev on 4-3 and managed to hold without risks. He saved all the key points with his huge serve. At the end of the match as usual was very kind with everyone asking him an autograph or a selfie.
Last ATP matches that I attended was Jared Donaldson-Nikoloz Basilashvili. It has been a great match, the best I watched in 4 days. Both played at great level and intensity, it is a pity that one of them could not qualify, both deserved. Donaldson lost 3 tough games from *2-1 to 2-4 in the third set and then he surrended.
Jared Donaldson played another great match but Basilashvili was too good. Both should have qualified #RG15pic.twitter.com/e3xjOagVDm
I watched for a couple of other WTA matches: completely unimpressive Teliana Pereira (playing defensive and moonballing tennis, with also the bad habit of shouting a couple of seconds later than her shots) qualified over Laura Pous-Tio and Andrea Hlavackova won over Anatasia Rodionova in a match where you could smell the reciprocal “hate” in the air. In their last meeting they didn’t shake hands at the end of the match. I had to go to airport in the middle of second set
2015 French Open Week 1 Men’s Preview and Predictions (@RolandGarros) Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
It’s time for the second Grand Slam of the season, the 2015 French Open at Stade Roland Garros in Paris. This is one of the most wide open French Opens in years, as the case could be made for at least five different players to claim the title. In addition, the young guns are rising, as over a dozen players under 21 are competing in the main draw and some of them are likely to score some upsets and do well, so read on and check out what all there is offer on the men’s side of the 2015 French Open.
For a look at the Women’s draw, with a full preview and predictions, click here
and here is an in-depth look at young guns, and young gun qualifiers at the 2015 French Open on the men’s side.
2015 French Open Preview and Predictions
French Open
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 24-June 7, 2015
Prize Money: $29,500,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Tomas Berdych (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Rafael Nadal (7)
7: David Ferrer (8)
8: Stan Wawrinka (9)
World #6 Milos Raonic pulled out with a foot injury, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Tommy Haas, both injured are missing, Janko Tipsarevic, and Julien Benneteau were the other withdrawals but all of the other top players are here, including 19 of the top 20.
A rematch of an interesting encounter in Madrid, Tomic lost in a third set tiebreak to the Italian veteran Vanni, who is having a late career breakthrough and will making his grand slam main draw debut as a qualifier. Bernie has been struggling on clay as of late, and has never advanced past the second round of the French, so this match could doom the 27 seed to another early exit in Paris. Vanni is a junkballer, with a game built for clay, as he takes causes weird bounces on his shots, and utilizes the slice and drop shot to win points, rather than power hitting. Tomic has lost five straight matches, and retired in Nice, so his health is also in doubt, while Vanni may be battling fatigue after winning three straight three set matches, including one that finished 16-14 in the 3rd set.
The surprise Sao Paulo finalist will still have to work hard, but this is a winnable match for him, and while Tomic had an excellent spring hard court season, he’s been atrocious on clay, and I don’t see that changing here, thus Vanni in 4 or 5 sets is my pick.
(10)Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jack Sock
By far the best round 1 matchup, this encounter is befitting of a round of 32 or round of 16 contest with the talent that both of these under 25 year olds have at their disposal, and it’s a shame one of them will have to go home after round 1. Dimitrov is of course the favorite, though he has a relatively poor record at the French Open, and has never made it to the second week. The Madrid and Monte Carlo quarterfinalist, and Istanbul semifinalist will have to deal with Sock’s high spinning and vicious forehand that is one of the best 5 in all of men’s tennis.
Since returning from hip surgery this spring, Sock won his first ever ATP title, which came on clay in Houston, and though he is on a three match losing streak on clay, all of those matches were tough three set contests. Sock certainly seems to be improving on clay, and he’s shown tenacity this season and the ability to change the momentum of matches, while Dimitrov has been shaky at times, and really has not performed as well as his top 15 ranking would indicate. I’m still picking Dimitrov, but I see it going five sets, and you can’t count Sock out, as he’s one of the top two American men on clay, and seems to be steadily improving. He’s also fixed his fitness issues that were detrimental in best of 5 set matches.
Nicolas Almagro vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
This should be a fun match between a pair of excellent ballstrikers who can play well above their current rankings when they are on a roll. Almagro, a three time RG quarterfinalist has not played up to his formerly top 20 self since returning from injury this season, but he does have a pair of quarterfinals and a semifinal this season in ATP clay court tournaments.
Dolgopolov has tumbled down the rankings and is out of the top 50 again, but as always he’s a dangerous shotmaker, and excellent mover who always produces highlights, win or lose. He hasn’t played particularly well on clay since early last season, but you can’t count him out against anyone, as he pushed Novak Djokovic to the brink of defeat in Miami.
The head to head is an even 2-2, and 1-1 on clay, Almagro’s recent losses have been better though, an Dolgopolov lost to the horribly out of form Ernests Gulbis in the Nice warm up tournament, so with that in mind I see Almagro pulling through in 4 or 5 sets of highlight filled tennis.
(16)John Isner vs. Andreas Seppi
In theory the 16 seed John Isner should be on upset alert, as he was not given an easy round 1 matchup, that said, Seppi hasn’t played since losing round 1 in Monte Carlo, and that indicates to me the veteran Italian all-courter had some sort of injury that prevented him from playing any further tournaments until RG. Seppi was on fire early on in the season as he recorded a run to the second week at the AO where he upset Federer, and an ATP final and semifinal in between. However his results since then have been pedestrian, and there are question marks surrounding his play right now, though he has the game to defeat Isner, as he has done so before on clay in Rome.
Isner has had a solid season on European red clay by his standards, he comes off the semis in Nice, and he also reached the quarters in Madrid, overall compiling a 9-4 record, with none of those 4 losses being bad ones. He’s not going to threaten any of the top names on clay, even with that huge serve, but he still should be good enough to get past Seppi, perhaps without dropping a set, and it would be a big disappointment if he didn’t get out of the first round here after the clay season he has had, most of all staying healthy, which is a big bonus for the American #1.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. Robin Haase
Cilic is 4-0 against Haase, including two wins on clay, and it’s unlikely he loses this one, but it’s a sleeper match, as Cilic has really struggled since returning from injury, and has yet to find the form that propelled him to his first Grand Slam, and a top 10 ranking. Haase by contrast is a very streaky player who has the technical talents to score big wins (he beat Stan Wawrinka this year in Indian Wells), but has one of the weakest mindsets in men’s tennis, and that weak mental portion of his game means he can lose to just about anyone.
Since reaching the quarters in Monte Carlo, Cilic is just 2-4, and he played relatively poorly in the Geneva warm up tournament prior to this. Haase recently won a challenger on clay, and also reached the quarterfinals in Estoril, so he’s in reasonable form. I’m still picking Cilic, but Haase likely snatches a set, and if Cilic is rusty and off his game, it will be interesting to see if Haase seizes the moment like he did against Wawrinka and scores another top 15 win.
A match to keep an eye because the seeded player could well go down in defeat, the Czech young gun lefty Vesely has a h2h win against Mayer on clay (2014 Casablanca), and though he’s had an erratic season, he has won an ATP title (Auckland), and reached a final, and a semifinal on clay. Mayer by contrast has been having a poor season, though he reached the final Nice, and though that shows his form is improving, it also indicates fatigue could play a factor in a best of 5 sets match.
This run in Nice is the best result Mayer has posted all season on clay, and Vesely is actually more talented, thus the match should be on his racquet. The issue for Jiri is his lack of consistency, he’s as talented as the other young guns such as Kyrgios, and Thiem that have made waves, but he hasn’t been able to put that together on a regular basis. I’m picking Vesely in 4 but this is a tough pick either way.
Rosol, who posted a pair of quarterfinals on clay this season, and has continued his typical rollercoaster form, likely wins this over the next great Swedish hope Ymer, but you can’t count the young gun out, given Rosol has the ability to play some of the best ball bashing tennis you’ll see, an also some of the worst error strewn disasters you can witness. The Czech comes off of qualifying for Geneva and then losing to Stan Wawrinka in round 2.
Ymer, a rising 19 year old who will be playing in his second Grand Slam main draw, after successfully qualifying and then losing in 5 sets at the Australian Open earlier this year. He recently moved to Barcelona to practice full time on clay, and it’s his best surface as he beat Nick Kyrgios in Barcelona, where he reached the round of 16, earlier this year, and had a relatively comfortable qualifying campaign where he didn’t drop a set in his last two matches. Long term Ymer is quite the talent, and he will have success in the future in Paris without a doubt, but winning this math is still likely to be a challenge, and I’m going with Rosol in 4 sets, as he’s a step up from Ymer’s usual level of competition.
Martin Klizan vs. (WC)Francis Tiafoe
The USTA wild card winner Tiafoe, who is just 17 years old, and is a former top junior, only turning pro in April of this year, actually has a punchers chance against the talented but inconsistent Klizan. Big Foe, as our writer Joe Craven calls him, reached the challenger final in Tallahassee, and the Maryland native, who is coached by Jose Higueras, went 12-3 on har-tru clay in those three USTA challenger events. He will be making his grand slam main draw debut, and he made his ATP debut last season in Washington D.C. at the Citi Open. He’s a talent, and he has plenty of charisma but this match represents a huge step up for the teen.
Klizan won the title in Casablanca this year, and also reached the semis in Barcelona but he has suffered two straight losses, and may be rusty, or not entirely healthy going into this match. Again, the favorite should win this, but don’t sleep on Tiafoe, as Klizan has his off days, and it’s unlikely the young American, who raised by immigrant parents and came from humble roots, literally being raised at a tennis facility, will be intimidated by the stage, or the ranking of his opponent.
(12)Gilles Simon vs. (WC)Lucas Pouille
An all French affair that should delight the locals, Simon has a higher ranking, more experience, and a positive record in Paris, but he retired in his last match in Rome, and pulled out of Nice, something that may be precautionary, or could be the sign that his back injury is serious. Simon had a non-headline making, so-so clay court season, and it’s not likely he’ll be high on confidence going into his home grand slam.
Pouille by contrast is a young gun trying to make a name for himself in his third French Open main draw appearance. It feels like Pouille has been tour for a while, but unlike some of the other players who are 21 and younger like himself, he has yet to pull off either a deep run in a big tournament, or a marquee win to put himself in the papers. He has a gifted forehand that can do damage and he’s a talented ballstriker, who can bend the ball to his whims, but his fitness, and at times his shot selection is lacking, and after reaching the semis in Auckland and pushing Gael Monfils to five sets at the AO back in January, he hasn’t done much, besides an upset of Dominic Thiem in Monte Carlo. He struggled in Nice, and also found himself dismantled by Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo, so he’s not exactly in great form, but this is still a match worth watching as you never know if Simon will lay an egg, perhaps due to back pain, though he tends to battle and find a way in slams.
This match is a poor matchup for Pouille as Simon is a human backboard who will massage the ball and likely be able to frustrate the young Frenchman and cause his game to leak errors, as it tends to due under pressure, but the injury concerns for Simon are serious, and that’s why I’m picking Pouille. He will need to be aggressive to get the win, and it’s a risk, but I’m bold enough to pick it.
Two-time, and defending French Open finalist Novak Djokovic is unlikely to drop even a set en route to the third round. Djokovic will open with struggling veteran lefty Jarkko Nieminen, who is fast on his feet, but has declined from his peak, and the Fin is also a player Novak has beaten twice before on clay. After that the winner of Gilles Muller/Paolo Lorenzi awaits, that’s a toss-up match as Muller is not a clay courter, and Lorenzi is a career journeyman, though at his best on clay. I’d go with Muller to get through, but he’s of little threat to Novak on this surface, and Djokovic beat him at the Aussie this year without dropping a set.
In the third round, I have Thanasi Kokkinakis, the Australian teenager, as Novak’s opponent, and it will still be a good showing for him to get that far on clay, though he’s unlikely to threaten Djokovic on this surface. Kokkinakis, who is perfect in ATP qualifying this year and recently won the Bordeaux challenger on clay, will open with qualifer Nikoloz Basilashvili, in the opening round. Basilashvili, the top Georgian player on the ATP tour, has been markedly improved this season and is nearing breakthrough status, but Kokkinakis is simply more talented, and he’s been getting better and better on clay, the more practice that he gets. His movement improving with his lanky frame, and his shots still solid from both wings, especially his forehand side. I feel Kokkinakis actually has more upside than the other part of the Aussie teenage tandem, Nick Kyrgios, and this tournament is likely to increase my belief on that.
Kokkinakis will need to defeat the Vanni/Tomic winner in round 2, if Tomic were to advance, he’ll have a 2-0 h2h against Thanasi with both matches coming this season, including in a competitive match in Indian Wells, but on clay things actually favor Kokkinakis style of play, as Tomic is not a good dirtballer. Vanni, who I have winning in my own bracket, is likely to be fatigued, and his slice and dice game is a good matchup for Kokkinakis, compared to Tomic’s junkballing. Look for Djokovic to reach the second week without dropping a set, and Kokkinakis to be a pleasant surprise in the opening week.
Estoril champion and 20 seed Richard Gasquet is another who could reach the second week without dropping a set. Gasquet will open with 26 year old Belgian qualifier Germain Gigounon, who qualified with relative ease and reached a challenger final on clay earlier this season, that said, Gigounon is making his slam debut, and has never even played an ATP main draw match, so not much should be expected of him. Gasquet’s second opponent will be either Carlos Berlocq, the veteran Argentine grinder, or surprise qualifier Illya Marchenko, who rarely plays on clay, and is a journeyman, but still tour through three qualifying matches. Berlocq has lost four straight matches, with two retirements mixed in, so he may not even be healthy, regardless, neither player is a threat to Gasquet’s versatile game, and the home French fans should enjoy his smooth strokes later on into the tournament.
In the third round, Gasquet is again likely to face a weak opponent, as Blaz Kavcic/Rendy Lu/Tim Smyczek/Kevin Anderson are his options. Kavcic and Lu are both poor on clay and rarely play on the surface, Kavcic having lost three straight. Smyczek is another player who is poor on clay, and Anderson has struggled this year on the surface as well though he did reach the semis in Houston. Given that Anderson is the highest ranked player here, has a 4-0 h2h with Smyczek, and is unlikely to be troubled by Lu/Kavcic, he should be Gasquet’s third round opponent with Gasquet advancing. With only a hard court h2h, Gasquet leads it 4-2.
The Dimitrov/Sock winner will face Pablo Carreno Busta/Victor Estrella in round 2, that’s a tough match as both players have been both good and bad on clay as of late. Estrella reached the final in Quito on clay, reached the third round in Barcelona with two upset wins, and was also a quarterfinalist in Munich, while Carreno reached the semis in Estoril but has been awful otherwise. Look for Estrella to win but then lose to Dimitrov in the next round, though Dimitrov could have problems through his first two matches.
In the third round, danger should continue to loom for the Bulgarian #1, as Croatian teenager Borna Coric is lurking as a sleeper pick to do well this tournament. The 2015 Dubai, and Nice semifinalist, who also reached the quarters in Estoril on clay this season, will open with American Sam Querrey, who reached the final in Houston on clay but has been in poor form since. Presuming Coric beats Querrey, which talent wise is likely if the Croatian can keep his head on straight, he should also beat the 18 seed Tommy Robredo, who has struggled to stay healthy this season and hasn’t played since Barcelona. Robredo’s career is slowing down, but he still should beat journeyman lucky loser Andrey Golubev. Coric represents a fresher and more difficult challenge, and though Robredo is a steady veteran and a five time quarterfinalist here, expectations have to be low for this French Open. I still have Dimitrov sneaking past Coric, perhaps in a five setter to reach the second week, Coric has beaten Nadal, and Murray over the past 12 months, so he doesn’t get intimidated, but Dimitrov still has more experience and should have that extra edge to get the job done.
Below that, we have the 9 time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal, who has a 66-1 record at the tournament, but has struggled this season, and seen his ranking drop him out of the top 5, and right into the world #1’s quarter of the draw. No matter his struggles this season, Nadal should have no problem blitzing past overmatched French youngster Quentin Halys, a wild card, but the second round should be more challenging, as he’s guaranteed to face a player who has beaten him before, the Almagro/Dolgopolov winner. Presuming it’s Almagro, Nadal has blown him out twice this season, including on clay, so Rafa is still likely safe to pencil in for the third round, and probably doesn’t drop a set. Dolgopolov is the more explosive opponent, but he’s harder to predict.
Nadal’s third round opponent shouldn’t be overly difficult, as it will be one of Adrian Mannarino/Jurgen Melzer/Andrey Kuznetsov/Malek Jaziri. Kuznetsov, who qualified in Monte Carlo and Geneva, could randomly reach the third round, as Jaziri is a good ball striker with awful fitness, not to mention not overly great on clay, and neither Mannarino, nor Melzer, who is long removed from his run to the semis here in 2010, is in good form. Mannarino is the weakest seed in the draw, and Melzer has done nothing this clay court season, so I have Nadal crushing Kuznetsov to reach the second week.
The Madrid, and Munich champion AndyMurray, is undefeated on clay this year (10-0), and is having his best season since back surgery, as he also reached the AO final, and the final in Miami. Thus, even though never being known as a clay court star, the Scotsman, who spent years as a junior training in Spain on clay, is actually a bit of a dark horse favorite to win the French Open. That’s a big ask, and I’ll tell you now I don’t see that happening unless carnage happens in the Djokovic/Nadal section, but he still should have a good tournament, and could reach this third RG semifinal, after earning his second one last year. Murray will open with lucky loser Facundo Arguello, a young Argentine who takes after the fiery former French Open champion Gaston Gaudio, Arguello has struggled to see his talent translate to the main tour level, so Murray is likely to give him the runaround and beat him without dropping a set. After that, Geneva finalist Joao Sousa, or Vasek Pospisil awaits the UK #1, Pospisil is poor on clay and has had a terrible season in singles, unable to find form, and Sousa should be tired, so Murray should reach round 3 without dropping a set. Murray is 5-0 against Sousa over the past three seasons, and he’s never lost a set against the Portugese #1.
In the third round, fearless, and charismatic Aussie teenager Nick Kyrgios will be looking to give Murray all he can handle, and not only get revenge for his previous h2h loss, but also score yet another top 10 win, after NK previously beat Roger Federer this season in a Madrid thriller, and Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. Kyrgios pulled out of Nice with an injury, and he’s had back problems earlier this season, but overall he continues to show improvement and he’s seeded for the first time in a slam, after reaching the quarters at the AO, and reaching his first ATP final in Estoril. Kyrgios will open against the struggling Denis Istomin, and presuming he’s fit and wins that one he will face the winner of Kyle Edmund/Stephane Robert, both of whom are qualifiers. The South African born, English resident Edmund is another young gun in the draw, while Robert is one of the oldest active players on tour at 35, and has been a journeyman all throughout his career. Edmund has been more impressive in qualifying and this season, and he could even shock Kyrgios, but NK plays his best on big stages, so I still see him getting through to the third round.
With the form Murray is in, I actually don’t think the match will be that close, likely four sets or three as a motivated Murray is 2-0 in the h2h against Kyrgios and has yet to lose a set to him, Murray truly has performed well on clay this season, and the coaching team of Amelie Mauresmo and Jonas Bjorkman really seems to have helped him improve on the surface, as his movement, and counterpunching is finally paying dividends. He’s had success at RG before as well, which should help, and he should be fit and rested.
The Isner/Seppi winner will take on Jeremy Chardy/Michael Berrer in round 2. Presuming Isner is fit, I’m pretty comfortable picking him to reach the third round with the favorable draw that he has. Chardy is just 2-4 in his last six matches, and Berrer is a career journeyman serve and volleyer in the last year of his career. He qualified without dropping a set, and of course beat Nadal this season, so he really has had a great year by his standards, and I do in fact have him upsetting Chardy given the h2h, but Isner’s relentless serves should do him in.
In that third round, David Goffin is big John’s likely opponent. Goffin, a quarterfinalist in both Rome, and Munich hasn’t been on fire like he was last Fall, but he’s still been good enough this season to beat Filip Krajinovic his round 1 opponent who is a fringe ATP player, and then Geneva semifinalist Santiago Giraldo, who has been worse this year compared to last year, and not much should be expected of. Giraldo has a big game, while Goffin is a steady ball striker, and the slow RG courts should favor the Belgian. Goffin and Isner have never met on clay (1-1 on hard courts), and as surprising as it is, Isner’s results have been slightly better on clay this year than D Goff, thus I have him reaching the round of 16, but I could certainly be wrong about that, and it’s a tough call either way.
David Ferrer, a former French Open finalist who reached the semis in both Barcelona, and Rome this spring, should blitz through the first two rounds without dropping a set, the underachieving Lukas Lacko is his round 1 opponent, and then he’ll be eyeing Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Joao Souza on the other side of the net in round 2. Souza is on a 7 match losing streak since losing the longest Davis Cup match in history, while DGT has had a career year on clay this year, with an ATP final in Casablanca, a semi in Bucharest, and a quarterfinal in Istanbul. That said, Souza is 3-0 against DGT, no matter neither player has the game to trouble Ferrer, an he’s 3-0 against DGT, including a win this year.
I foresee Simone Bolelli as the matchup for Ferrer in the third round, Bolelli is a talented shotmaker, but he struggles to be consistent, as evidenced by his lone ATP quarterfinal on clay this spring in Bucharest. He will open with serve and volleyer Steve Darcis, who has lost three straight and may not be healthy. In round 2, Bolelli is likely to get an interesting match, as the Viktor Troicki/JL Struff clash is intriguing. Struff is a talented, but underachieving 25 year old who has a challenger semi on clay this year, and isn’t mentally strong, while Troicki snapped a four match losing streak to win two matches in Rome. VT hasn’t been on the same tear he was when he came back from a doping suspension, and in his cooled off state, Bolelli should capitalize. The h2h is 3-3, but Troicki won both their hard court meetings this season. Ferrer is 5-0 against Bolelli and beat him at the French last year, so I don’t foresee the match being that close, same goes if he were to face Troicki.
The Cilic/Haase winner is set to face James Duckworth or Andrea Arnaboldi, Arnaboldi a 27 year old Italian dirtballer, had to battle to qualify. while Duckworth has been in good form, sneaking into the quarterfinals of Nice, and also reaching a challenger semi on clay this spring. The 23 year old Aussie isn’t one you would think to win on nationality alone, but I have him beating a tired Arnaboldi, before falling to Cilic in round 2.
Vesely/Mayer or Jerzy Janowicz/Maxime Hamou await in round 3, most likely the Vesely/Mayer winner. Hamou is another young French wild card who is likely to be overwhelmed by the situation, as he barely has any experience at the top level, as he made his ATP debut in Nice just last week. Regardless, Janowicz hasn’t won a set, much less a match on clay this year (0-3), so I give him little chance against Vesely/Mayer. Cilic just beat Vesely in Madrid in straights, so he should be the favorite for the round of 16, but don’t sleep on Vesely, he could reach the second week of a slam for the first time.
Berdych’s Quarter:
Tomas Berdych has had a tremendous under the radar season and he’s earned his own quarter of the draw. The 29 year old Monte Carlo finalist, and Australian Open semifinalist, who has performed well in every single tournament he’s entered, not losing before the quarterfinals, will open with young gun Japanese qualifier Yoshihito Nishioka. Nishioka is an undersized player with fast footwork, who packs a punch on his groundstrokes given his small frame, but Berdych is likely to blast him off the court. After Nishioka, who is making his Grand Slam main draw debut, Berdych should cruise past the winner of Ivan Dodig/Radek Stepanek, a pair of formerly solid players who haven’t been the same since injuries. Stepanek is an aging serve and volleyer on a three match losing streak, while Dodig has two ATP quarterfinals, including one on clay in Istanbul, but nothing else of note this season. Berdych is close to a lock for round 3.
In that third round, Fabio Fognini is his likely opponent, the Italian headcase, who has one ATP final, and one ATP quarterfinal on clay this season (Rio and Barcelona), but has struggled against opponents not named Rafael Nadal, will open with Tatsuma Ito, a Japanese player who is poor on, and rarely plays clay. After that, we could be treated to a headcase special, as Fognini is likely to face Frenchman Benoit Paire. Paire is just 1-4 in his last five matches on clay, but he’s still done well to work his ranking back up to this level. Benwa, and his gifted backhand, will open up against qualifier Gastao Elias, a fringe ATP player from Portugal. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Elias won, but regardless, unless Fognini implodes, which is always possible, he should beat Paire/Elias to reach the third round, as he’s a better player talent wise on clay. Fognini is 2-1 against Berdych on clay, but Berdych survived a third set tiebreak and defeated him in Rome, and given his consistency in the big tournaments this year, I’d give him the edge to reach week 2.
14 seed and former RG semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a home fan favorite will open with Swedish qualifier Christian Lindell, as Sweden has two players in a Grand Slam main draw for the first time in years. Tsonga has been pedestrian with a lack of notable results since returning from injury, but he shouldn’t have any issue with Lindell who is making his grand slam main draw debut. Tsonga will then be a heavy favorite against either Dudi Sela or Mikhail Kukushkin. Sela is poor on clay and Kukushkin has lost three straight, so I don’t see Tsonga losing a set going into round 3.
Tsonga’s round 3 opponent will be either the Philipp Kohlschreiber/Go Soeda winner, or the winner of Pablo Andujar/Albert Ramos. Kohli was a finalist in Munich, and a quarterfinalist in Barcelona, while Soeda basically never plays on clay. Andujar/Ramos is an interesting match, they have played each other a ton of times and Andujar has won the last two meetings, including in Barcelona this year. Both players have ATP quarterfinals on clay this year, while Andujar has a final in Barcelona, regardless of winner, I have Kohlschreiber advancing into the third round. Tsonga has never lost Kohlschreiber (7-0), and with that matchup difference, and Tsonga have the home fans behind him, I favor him to go into the round of 16.
5 seed Kei Nishikori, a semifinalist in Madrid, and champion in Barcelona, will open with French veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu, who should be calling it a career soon. The 33 year old is back to being a challenger, and fringe ATP player, ranked outside of the top 100, though he used to be quite solid. After a win over PHM, Nishikori should run into the in-form, but likely fatigued Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci won the title in Geneva, and his first round opponent Marinko Matosevic is in awful form (8 straight losses). Bellucci also qualified in Madrid, and Rome, and reached the quarterfinals in Istanbul. I’d worry about Nishikori against the big hitting Bellucci, but I feel the fatigue factor, and the fact Bellucci, who took a set off of Djokovic in Rome, tends to choke under pressure, gives Nishikori enough of an advantage to get him to round 3, perhaps with difficulty.
32 seed Fernando Verdasco should be the challenge for Nishikori/Bellucci in round 3. Verdasco will open with qualifier Taro Daniel, the fifth Japanese player in the draw (Nishikori, Soeda, Ito, and Nishioka are the others). Daniel, who trains and makes his home in Spain, plays his best on clay, and he has one ATP quarterfinal on clay, this will be his second Grand Slam main draw. Verdasco, and his huge forehand, will face the winner of Benjamin Becker/Ruben Bemelmans, after defeating the lanky Daniel. Bemelmans isn’t in great form, but Becker’s form is even worse, as he has lost six straight matches, and the veteran is not good on clay, thus I have Bemelmans winning, and then losing to Verdasco. Nando was a semifinalist in Houston but hasn’t done much else this clay season, thus Nishikori should advance, perhaps again with trouble, they battled it out in Indian Wells this year and Kei was the winner.
The 11 seed Feliciano Lopez is a poor 4-5 this spring on clay, and given all of his losses are pretty bad, expectations have to be low coming into the French for him. He will open with Teymuraz Gabashvili, who is a remarkable 14-2 over his last few tournaments. Most of those wins were in qualifying or on the challenger tour, but that’s still an impressive record, as he won two challengers in a row. Lopez is 2-0 against Gabashvili, but those matches were on a hard court, and with Gabashvili getting a bit of rest, I’m actually calling an upset, and putting him through over Flopez into round 2. The winner of Juan Monaco/Federico Delbonis awaits in what will be an all-Argentine encounter. Delbonis has a h2h win over Monaco on clay, and he has an ATP semi in Geneva, and a challenger title on the surface this spring. Monaco was a quarterfinalist in both Miami and Nice. Given his experience, I’m giving Monaco the edge by a hair. Monaco has two previous wins against Gabashvili, including a three setter this year in Indian Wells, so I have the loveable Pico into the third round.
19 seed Roberto Bautista Agut is the player most likely to face Monaco/Delbonis/Gabashvili/Lopez, in that open third round section. RBA opens with Florian Mayer, who is just 2-5 since coming back to the tour from injury. The Spaniard reached the Munich semis and the Barcelona quarters, and I also favor him to defeat Rosol/Ymer. RBA has a h2h win last season against Rosol on clay. I favor RBA to reach the round of 16, no matter who his third round opponent is, and it’s RBA/Monaco in my bracket.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 2009 Roland Garros champion, and the only player besides Nadal with over 60 wins in Paris, is Roger Federer, the Swiss legend and #2 seed will face lucky loser Alejandro Falla in round 1. He has beaten Falla twice before in Paris, and he didn’t lose a set in those matches (overall 7-0 h2h). Federer won Istanbul, and was a finalist in Rome, so it’s unlikely that he’ll have any issue against Falla or his next opponent, which will be Marcel Granollers or Matthias Bachinger. Bachinger, a journeyman, has qualified for both slams this season with ease, but he’s 0-3 against Granollers who is 4-3 in his last seven matches, after being abysmal prior to that. Federer is 3-0 against Granollers and has only lost 1 set to him, so I honestly see the Swiss maestro reaching round 3 without dropping a set.
Federer’s third round opponent should be quite easy, as he got a great early draw. Both Ivo Karlovic and Marcos Baghdatis are poor on clay, and have lost two straight matches, Baghdatis has a h2h edge over Dr. Ivo, so I have him reaching round 2. Veteran Russian Mikhail Youzhny has been awful this season and is 3-5 on clay, retirement looms for him and Casablanca semifinalist Damir Dzumhur, a 23 year old, will look to aid in Youzhny being pushed out to pasture. I have Dzumhur beating both Youzhny and Baghdatis to surprisingly reach the third round in a very weak section of the draw. His form has slightly been superior, and he has the talent to pull it off. Federer should demolish him though.
13 seed Gael Monfils, a former semifinalist in Paris, and a fan favorite, will take on Edouard Roger-Vasselin. ERV has lost three straight, and he’s poor on clay, while Monfils was a semifinalist in both Monte Carlo, and Bucharest. Presuming Gael is heathy, which is always a question mark, he should beat ERV and the Diego Schwartzman/Andreas Haider-Maurer winner in round 2 to reach the third round. DSS/AHM is an interesting first round match that just missed my cut for matches to watch, mostly because AHM has lost three straight after previously reaching an ATP semi (Rio) and quarterfinal (Casablanca) on clay, and winning two matches in Monte Carlo. Istanbul semifinalist Schwartzman, who retired in his last match in Rome, and is a rising young gun, who has a steady compact game built for clay, should win that matchup, before falling to Monfils. DSS is promising, but I don’t think he has the weapons in his arsenal to beat the speedy and defensively sound Monfils.
A big second round match is likely to take place between Dominic Thiem, and 21 seed Pablo Cuevas. Thiem won the title in Nice, thus fatigue might play a factor in his performance, but he’s still likely to defeat Aljaz Bedene in round 1. Bedene did win the Rome challenger on clay, and reached a quarterfinal in Casablanca on the surface, so he’s improving, but likely not up to Thiem’s level. Thiem is 8-2 since struggling in the early part of the clay court season, as he seems to has found his rhythm, and his fitness right when he needed to do so for Paris. Cuevas won an ATP title in Sao Paulo on clay this year, and has two quarterfinals and a final, that one coming in Istanbul, on the surface in 2015. His form has been up and down, but credit to him for building up his ranking into a seed worthy player, and though he’s unlikely to threaten the top names, he’s a reliable dirtballer. Thiem and Cuevas hae never met, but with Thiem likely to be fatigued, I have Cuevas reaching the third round to face off with Monfils, Thiem is the flashier pick but Cuevas deserves his due, and Thiem has been hard to trust this season. A healthy Monfils should be favored other Thiem or Cuevas to reach the round of 16.
8 seed Stan Wawrinka will open with Turkish #1 Marsel Ilhan, Wawrinka has had a very shaky 2015 and is just 6-4 on clay this year. He comes off a bad loss to Delbonis in Geneva, a home tournament, and his only good result on clay this year was the semifinals in Rome, where he got routed by Federer, after beating Nadal. No matter the reasons for his struggles in 2015, I’m bearish on his chances in Paris, but not in his first two matches, as Ilhan and either Dusan Lajovic or Maximo Gonzalez are not difficult opponents who have the game to beat Stan the man. Lajovic was a quarterfinalist in Nice, while Gonzalez has lost three straight matches. Wawrinka really shouldn’t drop a set going in the first two rounds, but with his current poor form, he may do that.
In the third round, Wawrinka could face the opponent that shocked him in Paris last year, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. The all-court, multi tool Spaniard, who has two ATP titles this year, one coming on clay, along with a semifinal in Estoril, as he has put together a solid campaign thus far, will open with American Steve Johnson. Johnson is a respectable 3-5 on clay this spring, and he’s improving on the surface, but I give him little chance against an experienced dirtballer like GGL. GGL should likewise breeze past a player who isn’t comfortable on clay in round 2, either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Ricardas Berankis. Stako has lost two straight, and is 0-3 in the h2h against Rycka, but Berankis has lost three straight and been in terrible form for a couple of months now. I have GGL over Stako for a spot in the third round in my bracket.
Wawrinka has had the edge over GGL on other surfaces, but on clay their h2h is an even 3-3, and GGL has won two of their last three meetings. Wawrinka showed no signs of improvement in Geneva, and the Rome win over Nadal feels more like an aberration than anything else, to me the writing is on the wall that he’s going to struggle here, and I have GGL booting him out again for a spot in the round of 16, this would also avenge GGL’s loss to Wawrinka the AO this January.
Pouille/Simon will take on Tiafoe/Klizan in round 2, As mentioned up at the top of the preview, I have Pouille upsetting Simon, and then Klizan edging Tiafoe, setting up that second rounder. If Simon is healthy enough, he should be fine to reach round 3, and I don’t trust Klizan’s health either, while Tiafoe and Pouille lack experience. I have Pouille making a shock run to round 3 in my bracket, but this is the hardest section to pick in my mind, with Simon and Klizan having question marks.
This is by far the worst section of the draw, as just above it, the seed is Ernests Gulbis, who only has two wins this season and a bunch of losses, he defends semifinal points, and will open with qualifier Igor Sijsling, who broke a six match losing streak to qualify, and is a known choker. Gulbis could well crash and burn, but I don’t see Sijsling beating him honestly, and thus I have him into round 2 against the winner of Nicolas Mahut/Kimmer Coppejans. Coppejans is a promising 21 year old Belgian, while Mahut is 33, outside the top 100, and nearly retired. The serve and volleyer isn’t at his best on clay, and he has two straight losses. Coppejans recently won a title, and reached a final on clay at the challenger level and was strong in qualifying.
I have Coppejans defeating Mahut, and then upsetting Gulbis to reach round 3, it’s a risky pick, and Coppejans hasn’t blossomed as much as he could results wise, though he has the skills, because his mental fortitude is lacking, but I’m giving the young Belgian his due here, in such a weak section. I have Coppejans beating Pouille to reach the round of 16 as a qualifier, because he has a h2h win against him on clay, and his recent form has been slightly better, either way I give Pouille/Coppejans/Tiafoe a better shot at reaching the second week than the seed Gulbis. Given that he was a semifinalist last year, that’s shocking, but it demonstrates how far he’s fallen, and the young guns are rising.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Borna Coric, Jiri Vesely, Thomaz Bellucci, Kimmer Coppejans/Lucas Pouille
Coric will need to rise up and find the form that pushed him to semifinal runs in Basel and Dubai, but his run to the semis in Nice shows form and promise, and Dimitrov has been shown to be beatable this season. if Grisha slips up look for Coric to seize the day and reach the second week to do battle with Rafa, who he of course has beaten before.
Vesely will have a tricky path to week 2, as he will need to defeat Mayer, and probably Cilic, but when he’s in-form he’s a great player and he can pull that off, it’s really just a matter of which Jiri shows up. Don’t count him out for the round of 16.
Bellucci has been in tremendous form in recent weeks, fatigue could play a factor, as will mentality, but if he keeps the mojo flowing, and battles past Nishikori he could go as far as the quarterfinals. It’s not likely, but he has perhaps the most range, in terms of result, of any of the non-seeded players.
I see Coppejans or Pouille reaching the second week in a weak section, would be a career result for either player, the section is theirs for the taking, depending on which one players their best. Pouille is the slightly better aggressor, while Coppejans is more defensively sound.
Week 1 Predictions (round of 16 matchups)
Djokovic d. Gasquet in 3 Nadal d. Dimitrov in 3
Djokovic dominates the h2h against Gasquet and has two wins on clay against him, I see no reason why he won’t reach the quarterfinals, and he probably doesn’t drop a set in the process. Nadal is 6-0 against Dimitrov with 3 wins on clay, and he just beat him in Madrid in routine fashion. This is Nadal at the French, and Dimitrov has not looked like a star this year, so again Rafa could reach the quarters without dropping a set.
Murray d. Isner in 3 Ferrer d. Cilic in 4
Murray is 4-0 against Isner, including a big Davis Cup win this year, this is also clay, and Murray has a great return game, so given form and matchup, Murray in 3 or 4 sets is a safe pick. Ferrer and Cilic have a split h2h on clay, but Ferrer has been in way better form this season, so he should reach the quarters, and I believe he would beat Cilic in 3 or 4 sets.
Nishikori d. Bautista Agut in 3 Berdych d. Tsonga in 3
Nishikori has beaten RBA twice this season on clay, and three times overall, if he gets this far, I don’t see him losing before the quarterfinals as it’s a bad matchup for the Spaniard. Berdych is 7-2 against Tsonga, and just beat him in Madrid on clay, these players have been entirely divergent in terms of form in 2015, and Berdych has been strong for players the caliber that Tsonga is at right now.
Garcia-Lopez d. Coppejans in 3 Federer d. Monfils in 5
GGL or Wawrinka should simply be superior to any player that gets out of the section below them, thus it’s a great shot a slam quarterfinal for Garcia-Lopez. Monfils upset Federer in Monte Carlo and has beaten him the past two times on clay without dropping a set, that said, Federer has won both of their matches at Roland Garros, and in a best of 5 format in a Grand Slam, I give him the edge for experience alone. I don’t feel Monfils can maintain his focus and consistency long enough to win a match like that, and will give up a break in the end to put Federer through.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Nadal in 4
The final before the final will happen in the top half men’s quarterfinal if Nadal and Djokovic meet as expected. The debate since the clay court season began in earnest in Monte Carlo has been swirling as to whether Rafa or Novak would win a best of 5 match this year at Roland Garros. Djokovic beat Nadal rather routinely in Monte Carlo, a venue that Rafa has an amazing record at, and he has won two of their last three meetings on clay. That said Nadal is 6-0 at the French Open against Novak, and he’s only been pushed to five sets one time (The 2013 semifinals). Many have said that Nadal is simply a different beast at RG, and no matter his form, or how well Novak is playing, there is a mental and surface factor that will always give Nadal an edge when they meet on Chatrier.
I’m apt to disagree, as the Rafa of late 2014/2015 has been a totally different beast, a neutered beast compared to his previous self, including on clay. He has look abysmal and lost at times on the surface this year, and it’s not that his opponents have just outplayed him, it’s that he’s beaten himself, spewing errors, and lacking confidence and consistency. He showed flashes of brilliance in Monte Carlo against Novak but he couldn’t maintain that level and the defensive skills, returning and pushing of Djokovic proved too much for him. Novak has been a total machine this year, especially when it’s mattered against the big four, and late in tournaments. I have a feeling that the world #1 is unstoppable right now, and he should be rested and motivated. If he is ever to win Roland Garros, this is his time with Nadal clearly limping into the tournament and out of the top 5. This matchup is relatively even and both guys know each other well, but the form of Novak, and his tenacity should be able to edge out Rafa, and I don’t even think it will be that close, as I have Novak winning in four sets. Soderling was the only one to beat Nadal at RG, but I don’t see it staying that way this year. Djokovic has been better able to handle intense pressure in recent months, than Nadal has, and I feel the Spaniard is under more pressure with his ranking under the threat of collapse, than Djokovic is right now, given that he’s dominating the fast surfaces and winning almost every tournament that he enters, along with baffling his other rivals Federer and Murray.
Murray d. Ferrer in 4
Murray is 0-4 against Ferrer on clay, so this would be another pick that would buck the head to head trend, but again, Murray has been in excellent form as of late, and he’s performed very well in the big tournaments. He seems to be swinging freely, he’s healthy, and also in excellent spirits with his new marriage and all. Ferrer is a solid player, but against top players, his approach is more to grind and let them beat themselves, as he lacks the weapons to outright win against a big four player. Murray has reached the semis twice before, and I don’t see reason why he won’t do so for a third time this year. His clay court game seems to finally be blossoming as he beat Nishikori and Nadal on the surface in Madrid.
Berdych d. Nishikori in 5
Nishikori is 3-1 against Berdych, but Tomas won their only match on clay (Monte Carlo 2012), additionally, Berdych has not lost to a player outside of the big four except to Wawrinka in Rotterdam, he’s been incredibly reliable this year, almost machinelike, and Kei is good on clay, and he’s been fine, but he hasn’t been up to that same level, my perception is Berdych has an extra gear right now that will push him through in this battle.
Federer d. Garcia-Lopez in 3
Federer is 3-0 against GGL, and I see no reason why the Federer/Monfils winner won’t reach the quarters, even if Wawrinka gets this far, he was awful against Federer in Rome, so regardless this should be perhaps the most routine quarterfinal, as all of the quarterfinals look promising this year.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Murray in 4
Federer d. Berdych in 3
Djokovic is 2-0 against Murray on clay, and hasn’t lost to him since he had back surgery, they have met three times this year, all on hard courts and the set score was 7-2, given this is clay, if Novak gets this far, I don’t see a way he loses to Murray unless Nadal simply puts him in a wheelchair in a quarterfinal grindfest. If it’s Nadal that gets to this point, I’d actually give Murray a decent chance at reaching the final, but against Djokovic, even as a Murray fan, I have no belief that he can win right now.
Federer has thrashed Berdych twice this year without dropping a set including in Rome on clay. Federer is 4-0 against Tomas on clay, and has only lost a set to him, and that was on fast and slippery blue clay in Madrid. Berdych has been excellent and tenacious against non-big four players this season, but he’s been toothless against the games elite, and I don’t see that changing here, it’s a mental block more than anything else as to why.
Final:
Djokovic d. Federer in 4
Djokovic just routined Federer in Rome, and he’s won three of their last four meetings on clay, in a best of 5 set format, Djokovic, because of his superior stamina, especially on clay where it will be harder for the older Federer to shorten points, has the advantage these days. Federer can’t be written off, but Djokovic is more likely to win his first French Open, than Federer is to win his second. He’s the oddsmakers favorite, and I’m going with Djokovic to win the 2015 French Open, if he wins it this time, it will be a well deserved and well earned victory.
Finally a day without rain at Roland Garros! I started my day watching from my favorite spot in the stands Alex Zverev-Igor Sijsling and Elias Ymer-Blaz Rola.
The Swedish young gun Ymer confirmed the good impression I had against Marcora and gave a lesson to Rola until 6-2 5-0, then he lost focus and had to save a break point on 6-2 5-3. Apart from this little choke it was another solid performance for him. Ymer d. Rola 6-2 6-3
I could not believe my eyes watching Sijsling-Zverev tied on 6-6: The Dutchman had dictated every rally and was by far the best player on court. He missed a lot of easy shots during first set but managed to stay focused during tiebreak while Zverev was wasting mental energies discussing with umpire about marks.
"You are crazy! You are wroooong! And you dont want overrule now" Zverev to umpire. Sick angry. Disagree on the mark of Sijsling ace. #RG15
As he often does, Sijsling fell apart from nowhere and in a few minutes he was 76 03. He is an unpredictable player, capable of big shots and big chokes. I went to other cours from there but came back to record Zverev’s reaction after the end of the match
Sijsling d. Zverev 7-6 2-6 7-5
I later attended Gastao Elias-Guido Pella, I arrived when Elias was 0-3 down third set but he fought on every single point and managed to comeback: he later saved a match point with a great serve. Pella won a 30 shot rally on 5-5 15-40 but then Elias broke him and served it out. It was an intense, and close match. Elias d. Pella 7-5 5-7 7-5
On the opposite court I could see Jana Cepelova having a MTO on 3-6 0-3 down..she lost 0-6 a few minutes later. Katerina Bondarenko d. Cepelova 6-1 6-0
I later moved to Veronica Cepede Royg that had on paper a very tough match against Laura Siegemund but as I wrote yesterday she looked great against CiCi Bellis so I was looking for a confirmation of that, and found it. Cepede Royg was again extremely solid and defeated her opponent in straights.
Cepede Royg d. Siegemund 6-3 7-5
Cepede Royg confirming the very good impression from yesterday
Jared Donaldson trashed the Indian Ramkumar Ramanathan as I expected: the (extremely loud) Indian gave everything on court but won only 2 games: The American Donaldson is in tremendous form. Donaldson d. Ramanathan 6-2 6-0
Andrea Arnaboldi- Pierre-Hugues Herbert resumed from 15-15 and they arrived to 25-26 with a pretty clear edge for Arnaboldi, as Herbert was not as clutch that said, credit to Herbert that played great risky tennis when needed.
Arnaboldi won the longest match in RG qualies with this winning return.
Arnaboldi d. Herbert 6-4 3-6 27-25
Quick impression from the huge serve of Beatriz Haddad Maia (who beat Nastassya Burnett 6-3 6-3) and for the amazing classy tennis of Alexa Glatch: her backhand slice his amazingly effective and I was glad to watch also two dropshot returns. The clean play produced a 7-6 6-2 victory for her over Ekaterina Bychkova.
Clothilde De Bernardi won another match that on paper should not have won. I was impressed by Anett Kontaveit’s power yesterday but the girl from Corse managed to dismantle it alternating hard hitting to moonballing. I didn’t expect De Bernardi to win against Larcher De Brito nor today so I would not be surprised at all if she will win tomorrow: she has a great support from the public and she seems to enjoy playing tennis. De Bernardi d. Kontaveit 2-6 6-4 6-4
De Bernardi surprised me twice in two days. So I won't be surprised at all now if she qualifies #RG15pic.twitter.com/j55jTmZBPd
I was curious to watch for the first time the talent of Ons Jabeur and she didn’t disappoint me, her volley and her dropshots were amazing but the lack of fitness cost her the match at the end of third set. She plays an aggressive and risky tennis so when tired errors come quite easily. She was very angry at the end of the match
At the end of this match I moved to Calvin Hemery- Radu Albot: I knew that Hemery saved 5 mps during second set and was leading by two breaks in the third. I came back when he got broken on *4-1 and was expecting him to choke so close to the biggest win of his career. He played superb games on *4-3 and on *5-4, playing with low margin but everything stayed in: Albot could not believe his eyes. At the end of the match Hemery was shaking his legs as at beginning of cramping: not sure if because of the tension or tiredness. Hemery plays a very aggressive tennis and has a good serve, one to watch for sure in next months. Hemery d. Albot 2-6 7-6 6-4
Familiar faces and potential future stars feature in 2015 Miami Open Men’s Qualifying Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
As one Masters tournament ends, another begins with the start of the qualifying rounds at the Miami Open. Like Indian Wells, the draw consists of 48 players battling for the 12 spots in the main draw. The diverse field consists of both veterans of the tour as well as young up and coming talent from the junior circuit.
Leading the field will be Brazilian top seed Joao Souza. Souza is currently at a career ranking high of 70 in the world after enduring a successful run at two ATP tournaments in Brazil last month where he reached the semifinal in Sao Paulo followed by the semifinals of the Rio Open. On the other hand Souza does have a disappointing record in Masters events. Since 2010 the 26-year-old has participated in 8 Masters qualifying draws, but has only managed to qualify in one of them (Madrid 2013). In the first round, he faces an intriguing encounter with young German hopeful Alexander Zverev. So far this year Zverev has failed to reproduce the form which took him to the semifinals of the German International Open last year and is yet to win a main draw match in 2015. The German does process weapons on the court that could trouble Souza but it is touch and go if he is currently in the right form to produce them.
Second seed Tatsuma Ito failed to end his Masters losing streak in Miami. The Japanese player has so far never won a main draw match in any Masters tournament. Ito has enjoyed some success on the Challenger Tour this year already by reaching the final in Hong Kong and the semifinals in Kyoto, Japan. In his first match he was defeated by the experienced Michael Berrer. Berrer, who is playing his last season before retiring, enjoyed a shock win over Rafael Nadal at the start of the year in Qatar. He also recently produced an impressive run recently at Indian Wells where he reached the third round as a qualifier. Now with a win over Ito, Berrer has the inside track to qualify for his fourth ATP event of the season (Doha, Zagreb and Indian Wells the previous successes).
Benoit Paire (3) will enter the draw with a large amount of confidence following his recent triumph’s on the Challenger Tour. The Frenchman has made three finals since February in which he has won two of them (Bergamo, Italy and Quimper, France). In his first match he defeated Austria’s Gerald Melzer in 3 sets for the first time in his career. Melzer is currently ranked 168th in the world and played in his first ever Masters qualifying draw at the age of 24.
Rounding off the top four is Steve Darcis. The Belgian has beaten four top 100 players so far this year (Adrian Mannarino, Tatsuma Ito, Jarkko Nieminen and Jeremy Chardy). In his most recent tournament he reached the quarter-finals of the ATP Irving Challenger in Texas before losing to Kyle Edmund. In the first round, he will open up against 22-year-old Italian Marco Cecchinato. Two two has played each other once before which was on clay last year. On that occasion Cecchinato took the win in three sets.
Make way for the young guns
As well as the usual names on the entry list, the organizers of the tournament have also given some younger players the chance of qualifying for their first ever Masters tournament. 2014 US Open boy’s champion Omar Jasika has received a wildcard into the draw. Jasika was tantalizingly close to his first ever Grand Slam first round but lost in the final stage of qualifying to Marius Copil. The 17-year-old is yet to win a title at pro level. The Australian will play 19th seed Aljaž Bedene. Last week Bedene won his first title in almost a year by winning the ATP Irving Challenger.
Elias Ymer has also been granted a wildcard into the draw. Ymer, who was recently referred to as top 50 material by former world number one Mats Wilander, reached his first Grand Slam main draw earlier this year at the Australian Open where he lost in five sets to Go Soeda. In the first round, he will play 7th seed Daniel Gimeno-Traver.
Finally, junior world number 7 Michael Mmoh got his first taste of life on the main stage against 21st seed Alejandro Falla, a match he lost 6-2 6-1 to the experienced Colombian. Last year Mmoh won a Grade A junior tournament in Mexico and also reached the final of the prestigious Eddie Herr International Open. On the pro tour the 17-year-old has won one Futures title (USA F29 , 2014) and is currently ranked 655th in the world.
In-form players Thiemo De Bakker and Edouard Roger-Vasselin have also scored qualifying wins today, as has American Chase Buchanan over James Ward, and Japanese young gun Taro Daniel. Daniel’s countryman Yoshihito Nishioka wasn’t as successful as he lost to Damir Dzumhur in straights.
Round 1 of the 2015 Davis Cup World Group was filled with drama as it brought out the best parts of the Davis Cup, with upsets, comebacks from 2 sets down, and passionate fan support at sites around the globe as players donned the national colors and put in their best effort on behalf of their country. Here is a review of all the action over this past weekend.
Argentina clawed back from 2-1 down in the tie as they were pushed to extra time at home against Brazil. The Friday singles rubbers were split, with Joao Souza winning the first rubber in five sets over Carlos Berlocq, and Leo Mayer claiming the second rubber for Argentina with a four set win over Thomaz Bellucci. Brazil won the doubles as expected as Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares took out Berlocq and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in straights.
On Sunday, Mayer led the Argentinian battle back, he avoided a collapse from 2 sets up and beat Souza in the second longest match in tennis history, it went over 6 hours as he triumphed on his twelfth match point chance 15-13 in the fifth set. Every set went to at least 5-5 as both players were, as to be expected, exhausted at the end, with Mayer having just that extra edge.
Due to that 6 hour+ match, the final decisive rubber between Federico Delbonis and Bellucci was pushed into extra time on Monday morning, and Delbonis, inspired by Mayer’s triumph, defeated Bellucci in 4 sets, as the Brazilian veteran was the weak link for the team this time.
Kazakhstan d. Italy 3-2
The biggest upset of the weekend came in Astana, as Mikhail Kukushkin inspired his lower ranked Kazakh teammates to a victory over an erratic Italian team that proved to be in disarray by Sunday. Kukushkin beat Simone Bolelli in straights on Friday though Andreas Seppi evened up the tie with a win over Andrey Golubev in 4 sets. The Italians won the doubles rubber as Bolelli and Fabio Fognini beat Alex Nedovyesov and Golubev in four sets, giving them a 2-1 lead.
On Sunday, the Italian choke job was on however, Seppi lost to Kukushkin in a very poor showing, as he failed to take even a set, and then Fognini made matters worse losing in five sets to Nedovyesov from 2 sets to 1 up, after he gotten it back to 5-5 in the fifth set.
It wasn’t the best attended tie of the weekend, but the fans who were in attendance were greatly pleased to see their home boys advancing as Italy will have to fight off relegation now.
The one-two punch of Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil was too much for Kei Nishikori and Japan. Though Kei performed well, beating Pospisil in straights on Friday, and Raonic in 5 sets on Sunday, the rest of the Japanese team fared poorly. Raonic beat Ito in a straight set drubbing on Friday, Daniel Nestor teamed with Pospisil to win the doubles point in five sets over Go Soeda and Yasutaka Uchiyama, and Pospisil dispatched Soeda in a live fifth rubber without dropping a set.
As mentioned in my preview, one has to wonder what might have been for team Japan if they had selected their young guns, Yoshihito Nishioka and Taro Daniel, rather than journeyman veterans Soeda and Ito, in my mind it would have increased their chances to win the tie.
Belgium d. Switzerland 3-2
The highest ranked player on the Swiss team, Yann Marti, stormed off and quit the team after he was not selected to play on Friday singles, and his selfish behavior may have cost his nation the tie, as the severely underdog, and shorthanded Swiss performed admirably, forcing a live fifth rubber to be played on the road in Liege, Belgium.
Henri Laaksonen deserves great credit for the fact the Belgians had to sub in their number one David Goffin, who originally wasn’t planning to play, in order to finish off that fifth rubber. Laaksonen was responsible for both Swiss rubber wins, as he beat Ruben Bemelmans on Friday from 2 sets to love down, Bemelmans collapsing down the stretch, and then beat Steve Darcis in the fourth rubber, also in five sets, as he outlasted the veteran serve and volleyer.
The Belgians earned wins from Darcis over Michael Lammer on Friday, from Bemelmans and Niels Desein over Adrian Bossel and Lammer in Saturday doubles, and as mentioned from Goffin over Bossel in straights, as Belgium had to scratch and claw against a journeyman team to book their place in the quarterfinals.
Australia d. Czech Republic 3-2 (3-1 live rubbers)
Team Australia did have to play live rubber tennis on Sunday, but they were the better team all weekend against the Czechs. Thanasi Kokkinakis added yet another massive accomplishment in his burgeoning career, the young Aussie was selected to open the tie for the Aussies, and he pulled off a brilliant fight back against Lukas Rosol from 2 sets to love down, to give Australia a 1-0 start. Kokkinakis struggled to deal with Rosol’s ballbashing for the first two frames, but won the final three sets 7-5 7-5 6-3, with late breaks sets 3 and four, to grab the victory, never losing belief in himself, as Rosol’s own belief eventually wilted. Bernard Tomic followed up the Kokkinakis triumph with a routine win over fellow young gun Jiri Vesely to put Australia 2-0 up.
The Czechs forced the Aussies to close off the tie on Sunday with an upset win in the doubles by Vesely and Adam Pavlasek over Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt in five sets, but Tomic secured the tie, defeating a struggling Rosol in straight sets in the fourth rubber.
The dead rubber was won by Jan Mertl to conclude the tie at 3-2 in favor of Australia, Mertl dispatching Sam Groth, who appeared to be ready to board his airplane.
France d. Germany 3-2 (3-0 live rubbers)
France got off to a great start and won their tie on Saturday against Germany, Gilles Simon had to survive an onslaught against Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening rubber, finally sneaking past the pesky Germany 10-8 in the fifth, but it was much easier for Gael Monfils, who beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in straights, and also for Nicolas Mahut and Julien Benneteau, who secured the tie with a win in Saturday doubles over Benjamin Becker and Andre Begemann.
Kohlschreiber and Struff beat Simon and Mahut in the dead rubbers to conclude the tie at 3-2 in favor of the French.
Borna Coric lost a 2 sets to love lead against Viktor Troicki in the second Friday singles rubber, and that was the primary contributing factor to the Serbian sweep over the Croatian team. Novak Djokovic beat Mate Delic, and as mentioned, Troicki beat Coric in 5 sets. Djokovic and Nenad Zimonjic locked the result of the tie on Saturday with a win over Marin Draganja and Franko Skugor in doubles.
Filip Krajinovic and Troicki won the dead rubbers over Skugor and Delic.
The quarterfinals in the World Group will feature France traveling to face Great Britain, Kazakhstan traveling to face Australia, Serbia going to Argentina and Canada heading to Belgium.
Action Outside The World Group
Santiago Giraldo and Colombia beat Pablo Cuevas and Uruguay 3-2, the inspiring Victor Estrella led the Dominican Republic past Barbados with a pair of wins and a 3-2 overall result, Michael Venus and New Zealand beat China 4-1.
In Europe, Russia beat Denmark 4-1 as Andrey Kuznetsov won two singles rubbers, Austria scratched past Sweden 3-2, from 1-2 down going into play on Sunday. Elias Ymer shocked Jurgen Melzer for a Friday singles win, but he couldn’t defeat Andreas Haider-Maurer on Sunday, and Gerald Melzer secured the tie with a fifth rubber win. Gerald chosen to start over his older, more accomplished brother Jurgen.
Martin Klizan went 3-0 between singles and doubles as Slovakia blanked Slovenia 5-0, Romania demolished Israel 5-0, as Marius Copil and Adrian Ungur both won twice, and Poland beat Lithuania 3-2, as Jerzy Janowicz scored two singles wins.
In group 2 action, the young Chilean squad swept Peru 5-0, Turkey beat South Africa 3-2 as Cem Ilkel, a 19 year old ranked outside of the worlds top 400 beat Ruan Roelofse 6-4 in the fifth set, and Marsel Ilhan scored two wins in singles. Last but not least, Joao Sousa led Portugal to a 4-1 win over Morocco.
2015 Davis Cup World Group Round 1 Preview Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2015 Davis Cup World Group begins on Friday and runs through Sunday as the sixteen top teams in the World will battle it out to avoid having to fight against relegation, and, to reach the quarterfinals. There are at least two marquee ties this weekend, and six other intriguing ones, all but one of which take place on indoor hard court. Here is a look at all the action in Davis Cup this weekend, with an exception of one of those marquee ties, Great Britain vs. the USA in Glasgow, which our journalist Joe Craven will be previewing since he has media credentials and will have reports from Glasgow through the weekend.
Czech Republic vs. Australia
Australia, my personal favorites to win the Davis Cup this year, have a great shot at pulling off a road upset, and their case for victory is further advanced by the fact the Czechs lack their usual tandem of Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek to lead their team in the tie. Berdych and Stepanek are filled in for by Lukas Rosol, and Jiri Vesely both of whom have Davis Cup experience, and Jan Mertl and Adam Pavlasek, who aren’t as experienced. Australia has Davis Cup legend Lleyton Hewitt, who is playing his final DC as a player, and will be taking over as their coach next season, leading a young upstart squad that has Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, and Thanasi Kokkinakis all available to participate. On indoor hard, and home soil, the Czechs do have at least some chance, but Tomic has had a solid season, Hewitt always ups his game for Davis Cup, and Groth’s powerful serve is always dangerous on this surface. Vesely, and Rosol, the two players expected to play singles for the home team, are both carrying four match losing streaks going into this tie, and with form playing a factor, Australia could well blank their opponents, and at minimum should win 3-1. The young Kokkinakis will be serving as the #2 singles player for the Aussies, and should garner much needed experience.
France won this matchup last year, this year it’ll be on indoor hard in Frankfurt, and the French should still be favored with a team of Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau (a late addition), and Nicolas Mahut. With Mahut on the team as a doubles specialist. The defending Davis Cup finalists will be up against a German team led by Philipp Kohlschreiber, along with Jan-Lennard Struff, Benjamin Becker and doubles specialist Andre Begemann. With Simon and Monfils in better form than Kohlschreiber and company, 2 singles win are likely assured for team France. That said, the play of Struff, and especially Becker will be key if Germany is to pull an upset, both can rise to the occasion, with Struff having some of his previous best results indoors, and Becker in career best form over the past 8 months or so. I don’t expect it to happen, but the chance is there, and if Kohlschreiber was in better form, the German team would pack a stronger punch and this tie would be more of a battle, but as it stands France should get through something like 3-1 or 3-2.
The Pick: France
Canada vs. Japan
Japan won this tie last year, and Kei Nishikori continues to be the marquee player for them, but Canada should be favored given they will be on home soil in Vancouver, and have a stronger all around team with Milos Raonic joined by Vasek Pospisil, Frank Dancevic, and doubles specialist Daniel Nestor. Outside of Nishikori, Japan doesn’t have another top 80 player with Tatsuma Ito, Go Soeda and Yasutaka Uchiyama making up the rest of their team. Personally I was surprised that Japan didn’t choose at least one of their young guns, Taro Daniel and Yoshihito Nishioka for the team. Raonic-Nishikori will be a quality singles rubber match, and Raonic won their meeting this year in a third set tiebreak in Brisbane, though Nishikori has a long term 4-2 h2h edge in their rivalry. No matter who wins that, Pospisil has to be favored to go 2-0 in singles, and Pospisil-Nestor is a strong doubles pairing, so look for Canada to win 3-2 or 3-1 no matter the efforts of Nishikori.
The Pick: Canada
Serbia vs. Croatia
If Marin Cilic, or even Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Dodig, were able to represent team Croatia, this tie would be much more competitive, but as it stands, the Croats have no top 100 singles players besides the teenager Borna Coric, who is rising, and coming off a run to the semis in Dubai, but lacks experience. Coric’s “B Team” teammates are Mate Delic, Franko Skugor and Marin Draganja with the latter two expected to serve as doubles specialists. Serbia counters with a very strong team led by Novak Djokovic, who is joined by Viktor Troicki, playing his first Davis Cup in a while, having re-entered the worlds top 50 in singles, Filip Krajinovic, who prefers clay, and doubles specialist Nenad Zimonjic, a battle tested veteran who helps anchor the team. On indoor hard, and on home soil in this battle of the Balkans, the expected Djokovic-Coric singles rubber should be fun to watch (though it may not even take place as it’s currently scheduled for Sunday), but Serbia overall has to be favored to whitewash their opponents 3-0 (and possibly 5-0) with Troicki and their doubles team both formidable.
This tie is perhaps the biggest toss-up of the World Group opening round ties, on clay in Buenos Aires, streaky dirtballers will be battling it out, and I expect a lot of 4 and 5 set matches. Argentina has a motley crue of mid tier clay courters with Leonardo Mayer, Federico Delbonis, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Carlos Berlocq, with their team having spent quite some time in Buenos Aires on clay, since this DC tie came right on the heels of the ATP 250 clay court event in Buenos Aires (where Berlocq made the semifinals). Brazil has the veteran Thomaz Bellucci, along with Joao Souza for singles and Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares for doubles. All of these players are notably streaky, and this will be a very passionate South American rivalry, with the dedicated fans of both nations assured to be rowdy, channeling the spirit of their battles in football (soccer). Even though Mayer isn’t in great form at the moment, the Argentinian team has more options in regards to Sunday rubbers, and overall slightly better form with Berlocq and Delbonis playing well, along with the home court advantage. I feel that will get through, either 3-1 or 3-2, with Brazil favored to win the doubles (Melo and Soares are a high quality pairing), and the pressure really falling on Bellucci to perform or Souza to pull an upset. I wouldn’t be surprised with a Brazil win but I can’t pick them this weekend.
This tie would would be intriguing and star studded if the defending Davis Cup champion Swiss had Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka again donning the national colors of red and white and representing their nation, but instead they will not be in Liege, Belgium this weekend on indoor hard, and journeymen have taken their place as coach Severin Luthi will be doing all he can to inspire his team of Adrian Bossel, Michael Lammer and Henri Laaksonen to pull off a miracle and prevent the Swiss from facing relegation in their next tie. Belgium counters with a strong core of David Goffin and Steve Darcis, one a top 30 player, the other a reliable veteran, and the secondary additions of Ruben Bemelmans, a skilled challenger level player, and Niels Desein. Goffin has an injury and isn’t expected to play, but simply put, even the lowest ranked Belgian player, Desein, is ranked more than 100 spots higher in the ranking than the highest ranked Swiss player, and without form, ability, or experience on the Swiss team, Belgian could well win a blowout victory at home, and I don’t see how they lose this tie. Late breaking news made headlines in this tie, as one of the Swiss players, challenger journeyman Yann Marti, was kicked off of the team a day before the tie by coach Luthi. According to media reports, Marti was outraged that he was not selected to play in one of the opening singles rubbers. It’s shocking to see a player of Marti’s caliber and status (292 in the world), act so put out and entitled about representing his nation in Davis Cup. His decision to abandon his teammates leaves the Swiss team with just 3 players for this tie.
Not to be forgotten this week, Italy will have to travel to Astana, Kazakhstan to battle on indoor hard. They have a much stronger team, as the in-form Andreas Seppi and Simone Bolleli are complimented by the experienced Fabio Fognini and Paolo Lorenzi. Kazakhstan has just two top 100 players, Mikhail Kukushkin and Andrey Golubev, who are expected to carry the load for them, with Aleksandr Nedovyesov and Dmitry Popko as secondary choices. Fognini, and especially Lorenzi, are far from top tier players on indoor hard, but Seppi and Bolelli can both hold their own, and with their great form this season, and a team that has good chemistry and balance, they should win this tie given neither Kukushkin nor Golubev have been in great form as of late. Seppi and Bolelli are playing the singles rubbers so Italy 3-0 or 3-1 is the pick.
Some of the other top players in the world of men’s tennis will be representing their nations outside of the world group in Davis Cup action this weekend. In the Americas region group 1, Pablo Cuevas, who has been in great form on the clay court Golden swing, and his brother Martin Cuevas, a challenger level player, will face off with Santiago Giraldo, Alejandro Gonzalez and Colombia. Though Uruguay has home court advantage, Colombia has a stronger all around team and should advance in their bid to reach the World Group.
In Europe-Africa Group 1, Jerzy Janowicz leads Poland against Ricardas Berankis and Lithuania, The Polish team at home is much stronger all around and should advance. A veteran Austria team led by the Melzer brothers, Jurgen and Gerald, along with Andreas Haider-Maurer and new coach Stefan Koubek, are strong favorites against Sweden. The young gun Elias Ymer leads them, and he will have to perform some heroics if Sweden is to have a chance to get any wins outside of the doubles rubber. Martin Klizan, Lukas Lacko and Slovakia should win at home against Blaz Kavcic and Slovenia. Dudi Sela will need to perform at his best if Israel is to upset Romania on the road, with Romania having Marius Copil for singles and a strong doubles pairing with the top team of Florin Mergea and Horia Tecau.
Diving into group 2, Joao Sousa should assist Portugal in dispatching Morocco, Marsel Ilhan and Turkey are slight favorites at home on indoor hard against a South African team that does not have Kevin Anderson, and a young Chile team should be fun to watch on clay against Peru, as the home fans will get to see Nicolas Jarry, Gonzalo Lama, and most of all Christian Garin of the 1996 generation in action.
In an era hungry for young talent to make their presence felt in the upper echelon of tennis, a few names are starting to emerge. You might’ve heard of the likes of Borna Coric, Nick Kygrios, or even Alexander Zverev, all gifted young men indeed, however today I want to shed some light on a lesser known name. Elias Ymer.
So who is Elias? Elias, or ‘Eli’ as he has been nicknamed, is an up and coming 18 year old Swedish tennis player looking to make an impact on top flight ATP tennis. Elias began playing tennis at 4 years old in Sweden, introduced to the sport by his father who happens to be a professional long distance runner. It was clear that Ymer had talent from his early age, his forehand especially was advanced well beyond his years and remains his main weapon today. As he grew into his teens he started to stand out especially on clay courts, the surface that seems to suit his game the best.
It has been quite some time since Sweden had any top players, perhaps since the injury-riddled Johansson, and of course former slam finalist Robin Soderling, who sadly fell victim to Mono, but they might finally have something in Ymer. It didn’t take long for Elias to make his impact at the junior level, in 2012 he reached his first final down in Plantation, Florida at the Orange Bowl, where he lost a tight affair to Laslo Djere. Djere, a 19 year old Serb who seeks to lead Serbian tennis after the Djokovic/Tipsarevic generation, seems to have Ymer’s number as he also halted Ymer’s title bid at Eddie Herr by beating him in the semi-final. Despite the lack of titles at the junior level Ymer was ranked as high as 5th overall in the ITF junior rankings, mainly due to his well-rounded consistent performance.
It didn’t take Ymer too much time adjusting making the transition from playing with boys to battling with grown men. It also didn’t take him long to raise some eyebrows when he took on Grigor Dimitrov in his home country at the Bastad, Sweden 250 ATP event. He had Dimitrov on upset alert as he took the first set 7-5, however he’d eventually lose the match after battling out a closely contested 3rd set. Ymer seems to enjoy playing in front of his home crowd as he made it all the way to the final at another Swedish futures event. To the delight of his hometown crowd, Ymer would also become the youngest player since former world no.1 Mats Wilander to get called up for the Davis Cup. He would end 2013 ranked 816th in the world with 0 titles. 2014 would be a different story.
After a year under his belt, Elias had the experience he needed to step his game up and announce his presence. Only 17 years old at the time, Ymer claimed his first professional title at a futures event in Egypt without dropping a set. He seemed enjoy the clay courts and desert weather in Egypt as he went back to back less than a month later in another Egypt futures event. The young Swede was on a roll. He would add 3 more futures titles in the summer including one in his home country. Brimming with confidence, Ymer would claim his first ATP victory in the same tournament he gave Grigor a scare a year ago, ATP 250 Bastad, Sweden. He would convincingly defeat Mikhail Kukushkin, ranked 52nd at the time, in straight sets. He would lose in the next round to Jose Sousa, but it was exactly the kind of ATP level experience he needed at this stage of his career. Ymer would finish 2014 with 5 futures titles and an ATP world ranking of 267, moving up a whopping 549 spots from 2013.
Ymer continues to build on his 2014 form in 2015 with a win over Igor Sijsling in Chennai and making his first Grand Slam appearance at the Australian Open. Elias made it through qualifying only to lose a close to 4 hours 5 set grinder to Go Soeda in the first round. Under the tutelage of Magnus Norman, Ymer continues to improve and work on his game. He currently trains at Good to Great Tennis Academy in Stockholm, and setting his sight at cracking the top 100 this year. While the other young guns claim the lion’s share of the spotlight, keep a close eye on this young Swedish talent. He might just be the guy that gets between those other names and Grand Slam titles a few years from now.
Tennis Atlantic 