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2016 ATP Brisbane (@BrisbaneTennis) Preview and Predictions

Posted by Admin on January 3, 2016
Posted in: ATP, Brisbane, Steen Kirby. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

2016 ATP Brisbane Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The ATP season has once more arrived with a flash as three 250 level events on hard courts will kick off the Australian Open warm-up swing. It’s time for previews and predictions of the next editions of ATP starting with Brisbane.

ATP Brisbane

Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp
ATP World Tour 250
Brisbane, Australia
Surface: Hard
January 4-10, 2016
Prize Money: $404, 780

Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (3)
2: Kei Nishikori (8)
3: Marin Cilic (13)
4: Milos Raonic (14)

All of the seeds are top 20 players, and two of the world’s top 10 are in sunny Australia to start their ATP seasons off as this is once again a strong 250 level event

First round matchups to watch:

Viktor Troicki vs. Steve Johnson

Troicki had 40 match wins and just 29 losses last season but the second half of his year was relatively disappointing given how good the first half was. He’s still in the top 25 however and needs to get his year off to a good start to keep his ranking up.

Johnson made major strides in 2015, going a comparable 37-29 and getting himself nearly into the top 30. The American has built his game beyond a quality forehand and posted an ATP final and semifinal to end the season last year. This surface and venue suits his game well, and an upset win could lead to a dark horse run to start the season.

(5)Gilles Simon vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Simon went the opposite direction of Dimitrov in 2015, and holds a 4-0 h2h edge against the Bulgarian, making him the favorite in this match. The defensive baseliner went 43-24 in 2015 and snuck himself into the top 15 at 31 years of age. Dimitrov, at 24, still has time to make good on his tremendous talent, but he was one of the biggest disappointments of 2015 going 32-22 and failing to break into the top 10. Now ranked 28 it’s harder for him to get good draws, and an early loss to a player of Simon’s quality could set him back even further given he’s defending a semifinal result last year here.

Hyeon Chung vs. Sam Groth

The teenager Chung is already well on his way to being South Korea’s most accomplished male tennis player, as he’s nearly broken into the top 50 at just 19. After a strong 2015 on the challenger tour, and an even .500 campaign at the ATP level, this will be the first full time ATP year for the Korean, and he’ll need to win matches like this to maintain his ranking.

Groth is the home favorite and his big serves suit the hard court surface, though he plays with such thin margins of error given he lacks an ATP caliber return game to compliment the massive serve he packs. He was below .500 at the ATP level in 2015, and I see Chung having made enough improvements in the off season to win this match.

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Top Half:

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Roger Federer won last years edition of this tournament and given he’s still the world number 3 who went 63-11 against the world’s best competition last year, he should be able to cruise into, at least, the semifinals with limited stress.

Federer’s first opponent will be either wild card Ben Mitchell, a home Aussie, who has never been ranked higher than 200 or won an ATP match (0-4), or qualifier Tobias Kamke, a former top 70 journeyman who is just 56-95 career at the ATP level. Mitchell likely has a slight edge as the home player but Fed should cruise regardless in his first match. The Simon/Dimitrov and Troicki/Johnson quarter is intriguing, any of the four players could make it through, with Simon being the favorite, and Johnson has a potential dark horse. Federer has won his last five meetings with Simon, and that should be his path to the semis.

Marin Cilic went 35-19 with a shortened season last year and has a relatively easy path to what should be his first semifinal this season. Cilic will open with the Chung/Groth winner and could face the #8 seed Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals, presuming the Austrian avoids being tripped up by wild card James Duckworth in round 1, and either Denis Kudla or wild card J.P. Smith in round 2.

Thiem went 37-27 and broke into the top 20 last year but hard courts don’t suit him like clay does, and I wouldn’t put it past the quality ball striker Kudla to knock him off in round 2. Kudla is in the top 70 now and is looking for more ATP success after strong challenger results last year. Cilic over Thiem is my quarterfinal pick. given the surface.

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Bottom Half:

Kei Nishikori has made three consecutive semifinals in Brisbane and after a 54-16 2015, he looks to improve and get himself back into the top 5 this season. His counterpunching abilities should be more than enough to handle either Denis Istomin or Mikhail Kukushkin in his first match. Istomin is 2-1 against Kukushkin on hard courts and should have the slightest edge to advance in round 1.

Nishikori is nearly certain to meet Bernard Tomic in the quarterfinals, as the Australian has an easy draw consisting of aging serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut, and the Radek Stepanek/Dusan Lajovic winner. Tomic’s junkballing is likely to face serve and volleyers in his first two matches presuming Stepanek beats Lajovic, who much prefers clay. Stepanek had a rough year last year and was injured for part of it, still the veteran has the desire to compete left in him.

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Tomic went 40-27 last year, and tends to play well in Australia, but Nishikori should prove too stiff of a test in the quarters. The Japanese #1 has a 2-0 h2h and beat him in the Brisbane quarters last year.

Milos Raonic went 33-15 in 2015, and had to deal with injuries, including back problems at the end of last season. The Manitoba Missile fell from the top 10, but he still has a powerful serve and a great hard court game when healthy. Raonic won’t be tested until the quarterfinals against most likely David Goffin, as a qualifier will be his first opponent, either veteran Ivan Dodig, or ATP main draw débutante Olivier Anderson, a 17 year old Aussie who beat veteran Tim Smyczek to qualify. Anderson seems to have a bright future ahead.

Goffin had a great 2015, going a career best 38-25 and bursting into the top 20. The undersized ball striker posted consistent results and helped Belgium reach the Davis Cup final as well. To maintain his ranking he’ll need to beat players like his round 1 opponent Thomaz Bellucci, a streaky Brazilian, and the Yoshihito Nishioka/Lucas Pouille winner. Nishioka is on the rise, already earning an Aussie Open wild card, and the 20 year old Japanese was strong in qualifying. Pouille is a French talent who made an ATP breakthrough last year, but the speedy Nishioka should be able to handle his powerful forehand. Nishioka could knock off Goffin but I wouldn’t count on it.

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Goffin beat Raonic in Basel last fall, but given it’s outdoor hard courts, as long as Raonic can stay healthy he should serve well enough to reach the semis and face off with Nishikori.

Dark Horse: Steve Johnson

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Given it’s the start of a new season there are multiple dark horse shots in this field, but Johnson could beat Troicki and Dimitrov/Simon, two quality wins, to reach the quarterfinals and face off with Federer, a result that would continue his improving results from last season. This surface and venue suits him well, and we’ll see what Stevie J can do.

Predictions

Semis:
Federer d. Cilic
Nishikori d. Raonic

Federer is 4-1 on hard courts against Cilic and Nishikori has the same 4-1 mark against Raonic, though he lost to him in Brisbane last year. They should be close and quality semifinals, but the top two seeds are favorites.

Final:
Federer d. Nishikori

Federer has won the last three meetings against Nishikori, the gap between them isn’t considerable, but it’s still there, and the Swiss should take the Brisbane title.

Steen Kirby (Marseille)

 

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2015 WTA Sydney Preview and Predictions

Posted by Admin on January 10, 2015
Posted in: Niall Clarke, Sydney, WTA. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

2015 WTA Sydney Preview and Predictions
Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic

2015 WTA Sydney Preview

WTA Sydney

The WTA continues its tour down under with a trip to the beautiful city of Sydney for the APIA International tournament. The event is one of the oldest in the world, dating back to 1885. In 2000, the event moved to the Sydney Olympic park tennis centre, which also hosted the Olympic tennis event that year. The Sydney International is a joint event with the ATP hosted a week before the Australian Open. Previous champions include the likes of Victoria Azarenka, Aga Radwanska and Grand Slam champions Chris Evert, Kim Clijsters, Martina Hingis, Justine Henin, and Martina Navratilova.

In 2014 Tsvetana Pironkova defeated Angelique Kerber in straight sets to claim the Sydney crown. The Qualifier also defeated seeds, Sara Errani and Petra Kvitova on her way to the title.

Apia Sydney International
WTA Premier Series
Sydney, Australia
January 11-January 16, 2015
Prize Money: $731,000

Top 2 Seeds (Who receive first round byes) (WTA ranking in parentheses)

1: Simona Halep (3)
2: Petra Kvitova (4)

Two top 4 players headline Sydney, and receive byes to the next round. All the 8 seeds are within the top 20, so a strong field in the build up to the Australian Open.

First round matchups to watch:

(3)Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Alize Cornet
These two met in Perth during the Hopman cup, and it was Alize Cornet who managed get the win on that occasion in 3 sets. The Frenchwomen will be looking to do the same in the first round at Sydney. Agnieszka Radwanska however will be looking for revenge, and with that in mind this is one of the tastiest first round matches this week. Both players are known more for their technique rather than power, so we may see plenty of long rallies and tense points. Will we see another upset, or will Aga reign supreme this time?

Lucie Safarova vs. Sam Stosur
Big hitting Czech Lucie Safarova will be looking to silence the home crowd by vanquishing Australia’s Sam Stosur. Safarova played well in the Hopman Cup, winning two out of three singles matches. Stosur didn’t kick off the year in good style as she lost in 3 sets to Varvara Lepchenko in Brisbane round 1. It’s even worse when you consider, Stosur led 5-1 in the final set and still managed to lose. A lot of fans may be looking at this, and thinking ‘How could this be a match to look out for with their head to head record?’ Of course, 9-2 in favour of the Czech is lopsided, but you never know in the WTA. Lucie is hot right now and the obvious favourite, but you never know what a home crowd can do for a player. Stosur could rally and get her first win over the Czech in nearly 3 years.

Elina Svitolina vs. Ekaterina Makarova
20 year old, Elina Svitolina will be looking to carry her Brisbane form into Sydney, where she faces new top 10 player Ekaterina Makarova in the first round. The Ukrainian made the quarter finals last week, but was dumped out by eventual winner Maria Sharapova. Makarova decided to have an extra week’s preparation, and will kick off her 2015 campaign in Sydney. Svitolina is a good mover across the court, which will benefit her against the powerful left handers of the Russian. Makarova will look to overpower the youngster and kick off 2015 the same way she finished 2014. The big question is how rusty will Makarova be? If she isn’t match ready, she could very well get caught off guard by the young Ukrainian.

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Top Half:

Number one seed Simona Halep headlines a stacked top half of the draw that features eight top 20 players and a former Grand Slam finalist.  The Romanian will receive a bye into the second round because of her seeding. She will face either big serving Czech Karolina Pliskova or a qualifier in round two. Pliskova will be the likely opponent even with the dangerous qualifiers in the draw. This is where it will get interesting for Halep, who has a bit of a dilemma. The Romanian won in Shenzen last week, and with the Australian Open coming, will she want to risk not being 100% for the first grand slam of the year and go all out in Sydney? Look for a potential upset in that one. The other seed in Halep’s quarter is Ekaterina Makarova. The Russian will play her first match of the season against 20 year old Elina Svitolina. With Makarova being potentially rusty, she could get caught out by the inform Ukranian, but the number six seed will be favourite to advance. Awaiting the winner will be Carla Suarez Navarro, and 2013 Wimbledon finalist Sabine Lisicki. Lisicki has shown in the past she can beat anyone with her powerful serve and ground strokes. The German holds the world record for the fastest womens serve in history. She hit a 131 mph serve in Stanford last year. This isn’t grass however, and the Spaniard should expect herself to advance.

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The third seed is 2015 Hopman cup champion, Agnieszka Radwanska. The Pole will be in her first WTA competition In Sydney, and faces a tough round one match against Alize Cornet. The Pole will expect herself to extract revenge on the player who defeated her in Perth, but an upset wouldn’t be surprising at all. Their potential round two opponents are Garbine Muguruza and Sara Errani. Muguruza is dangerous, but withdrew from Brisbane with an ankle injury, so there are big questions on her fitness. Errani will be looking to take advantage of the Spaniards problem and take out the 21 year old. If Muguruza is fit however, you would expect her to overpower the Italian.  Angelique Kerber is the number five seed and will face a qualifier in round one; a match you would expect her to win. From there you would expect her to face highly touted youngster Belinda Bencic. The 17 year old is destined to be one of the world’s best players, but she faces a tough test against Angelique Kerber. This potential second round clash is no doubt one of the most anticipated matches of week. How will the youngster handle the tests that Kerber will bring to the court?

Bottom half:

The number two seed is Czech powerhouse Petra Kvitova. Like Halep, Kvitova will receive a bye into the second round. She will face Shuai Peng, or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. You would expect the Wimbledon champion to make the quarter finals with that draw if she decides to be play hundred percent. The other seed in her quarter is Dominika Cibulkova. The Australian open drew lucky and will face a qualifier in the first round, so you would expect her to make the second round at least. She will likely face Andrea Petkovic in the second round, which will no doubt be tricky for the number seven seed. The winner of that match will really fancy themselves to make the semi-finals, with Kvitova’s commitment in question, with the Australian Open just round the corner.

In the other quarter, we have a stacked group of players with a lot of possible semi-finalists. The number four seed is former world number one, Caroline Wozniacki. The Dane will open her tournament against Barbora Zahalova-Strycova. A potential banana skin for Wozniacki, as Strycova showed good form last season. You would expect Wozniacki to squeeze past the Czech, but an upset wouldn’t be shocking at all. The winner will face Lucie Safarova or Sam Stosur, and given their head to head and current form it will likely be the Czech. Safarova is a potential title winner in Sydney, with a lot of the top seed’s commitment in doubt. Lucie is in good form, and will no doubt see this as a good chance to win another WTA title. The number eight seed, Flavia Pennetta will be another player gunning for the crown. The Italian will face a qualifier (it’s a pattern isn’t it?) in round one, and you would expect Pennetta to make it through. Flava will face either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Madison Keys. This is one of those interesting round one matches that didn’t make my three to see. It’s another one of those ‘youth vs experience’ battles that will be a theme of the WTA throughout 2015. If I would be forced to choose, I say Keys makes it through to face Pennetta, and the Italian makes the Quarter finals

Predictions

Semis:
Kerber d. Suarez Navarro
Safarova d. Petkovic

With a lot of the top seeds potentially playing safe with the Australian Open in mind, these 4 players will stand out from the rest of the pack and make the semifinals. In the first semifinal, Kerber will narrowly defeat Carla Suarez Navarro in 3 sets. This match will be tight, as they are 2-2 in the head to head, but Kerber I believe will find a way to win. In the second semi final, I expect Lucie Safarova to continue her good form and defeat Andrea Petkovic to make the final. The Czech will be 100% focused here, with the title being a big possibility., and I think she’ll better the German this time around despite the head to head being 4-2 in favour of Petkovic.

Final:
Kerber d. Safarova

Angelique Kerber will be the 2015 Sydney champion after weathering the Safarova storm. In this final, I expect the Czech to make the better start and race to an easy one set lead. The German will keep retrieving and errors will finally start leaking from Safarova’s side of the court, allowing Kerber to turn the match on it’s head and win the title in Sydney.

 

Tennis Atlantic Niall Clarke (Sofia)

2015 WTA Hobart Preview and Predictions

Posted by Admin on January 10, 2015
Posted in: Hobart, Niall Clarke, WTA. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

2015 WTA Hobart Preview and Predictions
Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic

2015 WTA Hobart Preview

WTA Hobart

Many stars of the WTA venture to Hobart, Australia, to continue their preparations for the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne.

The tournament was launched in 1994. Interestingly it has produced a different winner every year. Hobart is usually won by rising stars or relatively unknown players who look to kick start their season. Past champions include the likes of Petra Kvitova, and Kim Clijsters. The 2014 edition saw young star Garbine Muguruza win her maiden title. The Spaniard came through qualifying and dominated the field en route to winning the Hobart crown.

Hobart International 
WTA International Series
Hobart, Australia
January 11-January 17, 2015
Prize Money: $250,000

Seeds (WTA ranking in parentheses)

1: Casey Dellacqua (29)
2. Zarina Diyas (32)
3. Camila Giorgi (33)
*4. Vavara Lepchenko (34)
5. Sloane Stephens (35)
6. Klara Koukalova (39)
7. Mona Barthel (41)
8. Alison Riske (43)
9: Roberta Vinci (44)

*Lepchenko withdrew and will be replaced by a lucky loser

Unfortunately, the original number 4 seed, Vavara Lepchenko was forced to withdraw from the tournament. She has been replaced by a lucky loser, and Stephens is now the number 4 seed. Roberta Vinci is the next highest ranked player and therefore gets seeding.

First round matchups to watch:

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(1)Casey Dellacqua vs. Lauren Davis

The number one seed will return from Hopman Cup duty for the home Aussies in Perth to square off against American Lauren Davis in Hobart. What makes this match interesting is the respective form of the two players leading into the event. Dellacqua struggled in the Hopman cup, not winning any of her singles matches. Meanwhile, Davis started the year well by reaching the semi finals in Auckland before losing convincingly to compatriot Venus Williams. There is big potential of an upset here, so this certainly a match to keep an eye on. Dellacqua will no doubt be the home crowd favourite, but look for the 21 year old American to silence them.

Monica Puig vs. Kaia Kanepi

Not all interesting matches have to feature a seeded player, do they? Hobart has produced some interesting round one matches this year, but this particular match may fall under the radar. It is another one of those ‘Youth vs experience’ matches with Puig (21) facing Kanepi (29). Kanepi started the season with a Quarterfinal run in Brisbane, losing to Ana Ivanovic. Puig on the other hand lost her opener in Auckland to Marina Erakovic. Expect the Estonian to try and use her power to overwhelm Puig, who in return will look to use that power to counter Kanepi. I expect another tight 3 setter here that could go either way.

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Top Half:

The top half of the Hobart draw is stacked with talent and potential winners. Number one seed, Casey Dellacqua will no doubt be one of those players looking to take the Hobart crown. However, the Aussie doesn’t come into the tournament in good form and might get dumped out earlier than you’d expect from a top seed. The winner of the Dellacqua-Davis will likely make the Quarter Final where I expect either Mona Barthel or Kirsten Flipkens will be waiting. Barthel is talented, yet inconsistent, and has also recently suffered from an injury. The 7th seed could be another player who is dumped out earlier than expected. I can see unseeded players, Davis and Flipkens making the Quarter finals here.

The second quarter is headlined by number three seed Camila Giorgi. The big hitting Italian is another young star who can do a lot of damage. The 23 year old will face Australian wildcard Storm Sanders in the first round. It should be a relatively comfortable match for Giorgi who should over power her opponent. Puig or Kanepi will await her in the second round in another potential slobberknocker (Copyright WWE’s Jim Ross). No matter which one of them advances, it will no doubt be one of the matches of the week should. Interestingly, I expect Kanepi to beat Giorgi, and Giorgi to dispatch Puig despite the 2-0 head to head in favour of the Puerto Rican. If I was to hazard a guess, I would say Kanepi makes the Quarter Finals. Giorgi’s form is unknown and Puig lost her opener last week. There, the Estonian will likely meet Czech Republic’s Klara Koukalova. The number six seed was a finalist last year so knows these courts well. She will face Kurumi Nara in an interesting round one battle. I expect the 32 year old to advance in a tight match despite a round one loss last week. Koukalova’s experience will likely guide her through to the quarterfinals, where I believe she will face Kaia Kanepi. Out of all the likely opponents I expect the Czech to bow out at this stage as the other section of this quarter is just too strong.

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Bottom half:

Zarina Diyas is the number two seed and therefore the automatic favourite to advance from this half. But tennis isn’t that simple, especially in the WTA. Diyas faces a qualifier or lucky loser in the first round, which isn’t as simple as it may seem. Qualifiers can often be streaky players, so It will be tough, but I believe Diyas will pull through. Daniela Hantuchova should await in the second round, but the lottery of the qualifier/lucky loser also awaits the Slovak in round one. I will stay safe and predict Diyas defeats Hantuchova in the second round. Any of the four potential quarterfinal opponents for the Kazakh could realistically make it to the last eight. The seeded player is Alison Riske. The 24 year old got off to a bad start in Brisbane where she was dumped out in the first round, so the American will look to kick start her 2015 with a win over fellow countrywoman Christina McHale. The world number 45 also lost in the first round of Brisbane, and will be looking for her first win of the season in Hobart. McHale lost to potential second round opponent Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in Brisbane. Baroni was the 2014 comeback player of the year and is the most experienced player out of the four. Her first round opponent is Bojana Jovanovski. The world number 57 lost to Kvitova in the Shenzhen 2nd round, so her form is also unknown. I will go with experience here, and say Lucic Baroni faces Diyas in the Quarter finals after battling through Jovanovski and Riske.

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The 4th seed is Sloane Stephens from the USA. The American was once a highly touted youngster, but she was unable to build on her 2013 form. Sloane will look to start her climb back up the rankings with a successful run in Hobart. The 21 year old lost to fellow American Lauren Davis in the 2nd round of the ASB Classic, so doesn’t come into the event in any sort of form. She faces crafty Romanian Monica Niculescu in round one in Hobart.  The 27 year old lost to Polona Hercog in the opening round in Shenzhen; a disappointing result for the Romanian. Sloane will be fairly confident of getting by Niculescu and her round two opponent, who I expect to be Heather Watson. The Brit will be returning from Hopman Cup duty, where she lost two of three matches, but I expect the 22 year old to squeeze past Magdalena Rybarikova. The replacement 5th seed, or 9th seed is experienced Italian Roberta Vinci. The 31 has one of the best slices in the game and will be a handful for her first round opponent, Olivia Rogowska. Vinci should be good enough to make the second round at least here, where she will face either Annika Beck or Jana Cepelova. Cepelova will be low on confidence after her thrashing at the hands of Venus Williams, so Beck will be the favourite to face Vinci In round two. Beck is one of the steadiest players on tour, but Vinci has more variety which will see her through to the Quarter finals.

Predictions

Semis:
Kanepi d. Davis
Diyas d. Stephens

Kanepi had a good week in Brisbane, and could have gone further that the Quarter Finals if it wasn’t for Ana Ivanovic. Davis went one further in Auckland, but lost comfortably to Venus Williams. I feel Kanepi will be a little too much for Davis here, and defeats the American in 3 sets. Diyas vs Stephens could be match of the tournament. Both are talented youngsters looking to really kick start their seasons by winning the Hobart title. Diyas is currently the higher ranked and better player of the two, so I will predict her to squeeze past Stephens in a very tight 3 setter.

Final:
Kanepi d. Diyas

The Estonian will build on a good Brisbane run to take the crown in the Hobart. Kanepi won their only previous meeting at Roland Garros in 2010. However, the Kazakh was raw at that time, so you can’t take much from that match. Diyas will be hoping to win her first WTA title here in her second final. That time she lost to Sam Stosur in Osaka, and I expect something similar here. Kanepi’s experience will see her beat Diyas in 2 or 3 tight sets and win the Hobart title.

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Tennis Atlantic Niall Clarke (Sofia)

2015 ATP Brisbane Preview and Predictions

Posted by Admin on January 3, 2015
Posted in: ATP, Brisbane, Steen Kirby. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

2015 ATP Brisbane Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

2015 ATP Brisbane Preview

The first ATP event of 2015 will once again be the Brisbane 250 tournament on hard courts in Brisbane, Australia. The opening tournament of the Emirates Australian Open series features a strong field that includes 3 top 10 players. Here is a preview of all the action on the men’s side of the joint ATP/WTA event. Niall Clarke has a preview of the WTA side of the tournament coming up.

ATP Brisbane

Brisbane International presented by Suncorp
ATP World Tour 250*
Brisbane, Australia
January 4-January 11, 2015

*denotes joint ATP/WTA event

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Kei Nishikori (5)
3: Milos Raonic (8)
4: Grigor Dimitrov (11)

All eight seeds are top 25 players, as Brisbane is a loaded 250 level event.

First Round matchups to watch:

Martin Klizan vs. Jurgen Melzer

Martin Klizan had a great 2014 season that saw him finish the year back in the top 40, the Slovak won an ATP title, and went 25-14 overall at the ATP level. He finished the year with a notable victory over Rafa Nadal to reach the semis in Beijing, and he also had a top 10 win over Kei Nishikori in 2014. The powerful ball striker will take on the declined veteran Melzer for the first time, Melzer fell out of the top 100 in 2014, and only reached one ATP semi, and one ATP quarterfinal all year. The former world number 8 is still a tactically wise lefty who is a tough out in matches, but at 33, this may well be his last season on tour if his results don’t pick up. Expect Klizan to advance as he is a player on the rise.

Sam Groth vs. Lleyton Hewitt

The 27 year old Groth cemented himself as a top 100 player in 2014, and he will be defending quarterfinal points in Brisbane. Groth won a challenger title, reached a few challenger finals and an ATP semifinal in 2014, playing a mix of ATP and challenger level matches. He will take on a player who has always absorbed big serving pace well in the legendary counterpuncher Lleyton Hewitt, who remains in the ATP top 50 at almost 34 years of age. Hewitt is defending his Brisbane title this week, and he won two ATP titles in 2014, in route to a positive 20-16 record on tour. Hewitt and Groth have never played before, and we’ll see what kind of shape Hewitt is in to start the season, that said he usually get himself hyped to play on home soil, and he should be able to fend off Groth, perhaps in a pair of tiebreaks.

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(8)Julien Benneteau vs. (WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis

Julien Benneteau remains in the hunt for an elusive first ATP title, as the French veteran, who at the age of 33 remains at a career high ranking of 25 will start off his season in Brisbane against the young gun Aussie wild card Kokkinakis. Benneteau went 26-24 in 2014 with one ATP final, a challenger title, and some great results at the Masters level including a semifinal appearance in Cincy and a pair of quarterfinals in Shanghai and Indian Wells. Kokkinakis currently sits at 150 in the world, and the 18 year old will be looking to have a breakthrough season, much like his countryman Nick Kyrgios had in 2014. Kokkinakis primarily played on the challenger tour last year, but did win a couple of ATP main draw matches and his lanky game is clearly improving onto what should be bigger and better stages in 2015. Benneteau will be favored but I’d give Kokkinakis a really good chance to grab a win over a veteran ATP competitor on home soil.

Bernard Tomic vs. Sam Querrey

Bernard Tomic enters 2015 claiming to have a renewed focus and commitment to his tennis as he seeks to reach his potential after years of underachieving. He’s still just 22 and has time to make his move into the tennis elite. He won an ATP title last year, along with reaching a final and a semifinal in route to a 17-15 record at the ATP level. He will face the American Querrey who he has beaten twice before, once on grass in 2013, and once on hard courts in 2012. Querrey returned to the top 40 after a solid 2014 that saw finish 28-21 at the ATP level. Sam found success on the challenger circuit, winning 3 consecutive ATP challenger titles, and that in particular seemed to improve his confidence last season. Now back at the ATP level on a full time basis in 2015, the competition will be stiffer and he will need to win matches like this one against Tomic to maintain, and perhaps improve upon his current ranking. This is a toss-up match for me between a pair of players who can play great tennis, or totally fall apart, depending on their emotions.

Top Half:

Last year’s finalist Roger Federer will be seeking to claim yet another ATP title to add to his illustrious resume, the 33 year old Swiss will be mounting a renewed challenge for the number one ranking in 2015 after winning 5 titles and going an incredible 73-12 last season. Federer will open his 2015 campaign against a qualifier or Aussie wildcard John Millman, who is more talented than his current ranking of 156 would suggest. That said, I fully expect to see a Federer vs. Gilles Simon quarterfinal matchup. Simon will open with Aussie wild card James Duckworth who he has a 1-0 h2h record with. After the challenger level Duckworth, Simon should face the quick Finnish veteran Jarkko Nieminen who has a history of playing well in Australia.  Nieminen opens with a qualifier, and is 2-3 in his career against Simon. Simon had an inconsistent 2014, but he had some good results at the end of last season (Shanghai final, Tokyo semis) and is most likely to reach the quarterfinals in this section. Barring a monumental upset, Federer should defeat Simon for the fifth time in a row and reach the semifinals. Last year Federer dispatched Simon in a pair of tiebreaks in the Shanghai final.

Former Brisbane finalist Grigor Dimitrov is looking to cement himself in the top 10 in 2015. Dimitrov will open with Jeremy Chardy or Andrey Golubev for the opening match of his season. Chardy, who has the game to score big wins from time to time, may give Dimitrov a test, but the Bulgarian should make the quarterfinals to face off with most likely either Klizan or 7 seed Alex Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov is a former Brisbane finalist, and he opens with Carlos Berlocq who is more comfortable on clay. Dolgo had a solid 2014 until he suffered a knee injury, and we’ll see what sort of physical shape he is in for the first part of 2015. Klizan vs. Dolgo looks to be a great second round matchup, and I could see either one reaching the quarterfinals. That said, Klizan was more consistent late in 2014, and I’m going with him over a talented but erratic Dolgo who wasn’t the same in 2014 since injuring his knee. Look for Klizan (or Dolgo) to test Dimitrov as well but Dimitrov should prevail and reach the semis, he’s 2-1 in his career against Dolgo including a win at Wimbledon last year, he has never played Klizan.

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Bottom Half:

Kei Nishikori has reached the semis for two straight years in Brisbane and he reached the top 5 for the first time in his career last season. He won 4 ATP titles last year, and reached a Masters and a slam final, both for the first time in his career. He will open against Aussie Marinko Matosevic, or American Steve Johnson. He beat Johnson once last year on grass, and beat Matosevic three times last year, to extend his h2h record against him to 5-0 in his career. I expect a healthy and motivated Nishikori to get himself to the quarters, and then take out one of Benneteau/Kokkinakis/Tomic/Querrey in the quarters. All of those opponents would be challenging, in a stacked section of the draw but Nishikori should handle any of them, I favor Tomic to get through to the quarterfinals on home soil, given he tends to play his best in January during the AO series.

Milos Raonic cemented himself as a top 10 player in 2014 by playing consistent, reliable tennis. He only won one title, but he reached two finals, including a Masters final and reached the quarterfinals or better in all but one Masters 1000 level event. The Canadian number one will open with a qualifier or Mikhail Kukushkin, and after that is likely to face either Hewitt, or 5 seed Kevin Anderson, with Groth, or a qualifier also options. Anderson and Hewitt have split h2h meetings, but Anderson won the most recent one last season, he plays a similar gamestyle to Groth, but his is more well rounded and developed. It’s hard to go against Hewitt in Australia, but I’m favoring a Raonic vs. Anderson quarterfinal with Raonic advancing. Both guys player a similar serve and forehand heavy style, but Raonic does it better so he should get himself through to the semis.

Dark Horse: Martin Klizan

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There are other dark horse options like Tomic, Hewitt, Simon, and Johnson but if anyone is going to prevent the semifinals from featuring all seeded players it is most likely to be Klizan, who has shown the ability to win big matches and has the game to trouble Dimitrov if he can get past Melzer and Dolgo. A semifinal to open the season would be a big boost for Klizan.

Predictions

Semis:
Federer d. Dimitrov
Nishikori d. Raonic

Federer has won both h2h meetings, last season and the year before, indoors in Basel, against Dimitrov, and he has done so without dropping a set. Though Dimitrov is improving, they play similar tennis and Federer does it at a normally superior level, so barring a shock, Fed should advance to the final.

Nishikori and Raonic have a budding rivalry at this point, they met four times last year, with Nishikori going 3-1 in those meetings, including two great matches in the Tokyo final and US Open round of 16. Raonic is a good player but Nishikori returns well enough, along with being able to generate enough power to stay on the court with the Canadian and he seems to have the matchup edge, thus I expect to see him in the final.

Final:
Nishikori d. Federer

Federer is 3-2 overall against Nishikori and comfortably defeated him in their last two meetings, including at the World Tour Finals. That said, Nishikori won the only outdoor hard court meeting in Miami, and I’m going with a judgment call favoring the younger Nishikori to pull this off and show he’s going to be challenging for big four status in 2015. The Brisbane final is likely to be excellent given the strength of the field and the relative balance of the draw.

Steen Kirby Tennis Atlantic (Marseille)