Garanti Koza Sofia Open

2017 ATP Sofia Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

Bulgaria’s only ATP World Tour event is back for it’s second edition, as a host of European talents will battle it out in this ATP 250 tournament. Here is your preview, with predictions.

Garanti Koza Sofia Open
ATP World Tour 250
Sofia, Bulgaria
February 6-12, 2017
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: €482,060

Top 4 Seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Dominic Thiem (8)
2: David Goffin (11)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (13)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)

A much stronger tournament than last year, Sofia brings four top 20 players, including home hero Grigor Dimitrov. Only one of the main draw players isn’t from Europe.

First round matches to watch:

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(8)Martin Klizan vs. Andrey Kuznetsov

Both Klizan and Kuznetsov are coming off of Davis Cup play, neither were successful, but Klizan put in more roadwork, playing two singles rubbers. These players are streaky big hitters and anything could happen, but Kuznetsov is in better form and should have an advantage in this one.

Top Half:

Dominic Thiem is 5-3 to start the season, and could run into trouble against the in-form Adrian Mannarino in round 2, presuming Mannarino puts away Nikolosz Basilashvili. Mannarino has two challenger titles already in 2017, and could knock off Thiem, but the Austrian is the favorite to reach the quarterfinals. The winner of Kuznetsov/Klizan should be tipped to reach the quarters as well, with Marco Chiudinelli or qualifier Daniel Brands the only other option. Thiem over Kuznetsov is my pick in the quarters, as the Austrian should be fit and finally gathering some momentum for a good tournament run.

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Bulgaria’s #1 Grigor Dimitrov is a red hot 10-1 to start the season, and with home support he should ease past Jerzy Janowicz/Dudi Sela, and then defeat Serbian #2 Viktor Troicki in the quarterfinals. Davis Cup success should boost Troicki and help him earn wins against wild card Cem Ilkel, and either Robin Haase or local wild card Dimitar Kuzmanov. Dimitrov has been playing like a top 10 player recently, and is a clear favorite to reach the semifinals.

Bottom Half:

David Goffin is 5-2 to start the season and should earn his seventh win against most likely his countryman Steve Darcis in the quarterfinals, after defeating Radu Albot or local wild card Alexandar Lazarov in round 2. Goffin’s pure ball striking would go up against Andreas Seppi perhaps in the quarters, but Seppi, if he stays in the draw, will be coming off a long Davis Cup weekend of work for Italy. There are some talented players in this section, but Goffin is highest ranked among them for a reason. Darcis was a hero for his nation over the Davis Cup weekend and opens with qualifier Max Marterer.

Defending champion Roberto Bautista Agut found success in Davis Cup over the weekend, and looks set to defeat a qualifier, and big server Gilles Muller to reach the semifinals. Muller opens with a qualifier, Mathias Bourgue, while Mikhail Youzhny does the same against Marko Tepavac. Muller’s quick serve can be dangerous on a fast court, but RBA has been playing great tennis in 2017 and already has an ATP title to show for it.

Dark Horse: Adrian Mannarino

Of the top 4 seeds, Thiem should be the player at the most risk of being ousted early. He hasn’t been fit to start the season and has endured some shaky performances. On top of that, Mannarino, despite being up and down, has played some great tennis already this season, and excels on indoor hard courts. If Mannarino can absorb Thiem’s power, he could reach the quarterfinals, and perhaps the semis or better.

Predictions

Semis
Dimitrov d. Thiem
Bautista Agut d. Goffin

Dimitrov and Thiem have split meetings, but given the difference in form and Dimitrov’s win in Brisbane, Dimitrov is a clear favorite. RBA is 3-0 against Goffin, making him the favorite to reach a second straight final in Sofia as well.

Final
Dimitrov d. Bautista Agut

Despite a split 2-2 h2h, Dimitrov should have the form advantage in this one, both players are playing well, but Dimitrov’s level has been above even RBA’s in this young season.

Daniel Brands and Marius Copil Triumph In Qualifying at Sofia Open
Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic

The first edition of the Sofia Open saw the surprise exit of the top two seeds in the qualifying draw.

Headlining the field was Japan’s Yūichi Sugita. Ranked 124th in the world, Sugita recently qualified for his maiden Australian Open main draw before suffering a defeat to French 23rd seed Gael Monfils. The 27-year-old kicked off his Bulgarian campaign with a 6-4, 6-1, win over Turkish wildcard Cem İlkel. Awaiting him in the final round was Romania’s Marius Copil. Copil defeated 18-year-old Bulgarian Alexandar Lazarov in straight sets during his first round match.

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Copil’s start to 2016 has been far from ideal with him losing two out of his three matches during the Australian swing. Despite the unsatisfactory to the year, Copil proved too problematic for Sugita. The world No.170 fended off three break points to win 6-3, 6-4, after 78 minutes of play.

Following the top seed out of the tournament was Russian second seed Konstantin Kravchuk. At 133rd in the world, Kravchuk is just seven places away from his career best of 126. His opening match was a tricky test against Belgium’s Yannick Mertens. The 30-year-old had a match point to take the win in straight sets, but failed to convert as he eventually edged past the world No.201 6-2, 5-7, 6-2.

There was a bigger test awaiting Kravchuk in the second round, German fifth seed Daniel Brands. Brands has enjoyed an impressive start to 2016 with a semifinal appearance in the Noumea Challenger, followed by reaching the second round of the Australian Open as a qualifier. Despite a promising start by the Russian, the 30-year-old prevailed to Brands. The German recovered from a set down to upset the second seed 4-6,7-6(5),6-4.

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Mirza Basic recently became only the second Bosnian man to reach a main draw of a Grand Slam tournament at the Australian Open. In Melbourne he defeated Robin Haase in the first round before succumbing to Tomas Berdych. Basic was able to continue his Melbourne momentum in Bulgaria with a duo of wins. His opening performance against Israel’s Amir Weintraub was mixed. After failing to serve the match out in the final set at 5-4, the Bosnian grabbed another critical break in the following game to seal the win – 6-7(2), 6-3,7-5. Basic’s second round encounter was more straightforward as he eased past 6th seed Farrukh Dustov 6-3, 6-3, to reach the main draw.

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Completing the quartet of Bulgarian qualifiers was Italy’s Thomas Fabbiano. Since reaching the last eight of the ATP Chennai Open at the start of the year, the Italian has suffered early losses during the Australian Open qualifying tournament and at the Manila Challenger. Fabbiano, seeded fourth in the tournament, overcame his recent disappointments to reach the main draw in Sofia. After dismissing Serbia’s Laslo Djere in the first round, the Italian set up an encounter with Marton Fucsovics. The encounter was an easy task for the 2007 French Open boys doubles champion as he won six consecutive games during his 6-4, 6-1, victory.

First round matches for the qualifiers

Q Daniel Brands vs. Q Thomas Fabbiano
Q Mirza Basic vs. Yuki Bhambri
Q Marius Copil vs. Hyeon Chung

All of the qualifiers are capable of making runs given this open field.

Adam Addicott TA Watermark