Illya Marchenko

2016 Davis Cup World Group Semifinals Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

Post US Open, the attention in the tennis world shifts to the Davis Cup as Great Britain battle Argentina in Glasgow, and France travels to Croatia for a home tie for the Croats. The World Group playoffs also take place this weekend, with a host of teams looking to either remain in, or make next year’s World Group. Here is your comprehensive preview.

World Group semifinals

Argentina vs. Great Britain

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Juan Martin Del Potro and Argentina have a great chance to upset team GB at home and reach the Davis Cup final, after dispatching the defending champions. The British refuse to give up their title that easily though, and a hard court surface will help their team perform its best.

Andy Murray will lead off against Del Potro, in a match I make him a slight favorite in after Murray won their Olympic gold medal match. Kyle Edmund, coming off a strong showing at the US Open, should defeat dirtballer Guido Pella, and that would put team GB 2-0 up. The Murray brothers, including US Open champion Jamie Murray are in for the doubles as well, opposite Federico Delbonis and Leonardo Mayer. Dan Evans is also on team GB as a reverse.

Team Argentina is a gutsy, working man’s team, but unless Del Potro can win two singles rubbers, and Argentina can snag the doubles, it’s hard to see them winning this tie. Murray+Edmund should be enough to get the Brits into their second straight Davis Cup final. British tennis is on the rise and Great Britain are my pick.

France vs. Croatia

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Marin Cilic and Borna Coric are solid players for Croatia, but neither are in great form, and even though they get a home tie, the combined skills of Lucas Pouille and Richard Gasquet make France the favorites. The French doubles team of Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut is one of the elite teams in the world, the Croatians counter with the less accomplished Ivan Dodig and Marin Draganja.

Pouille’s strong showing at the US Open bodes well for him, and although Gasquet may be a bit shaky, I don’t see him losing both rubbers, and the French losing the doubles, thus France should will their way to a win.

World Group Playoffs

Switzerland vs. Uzbekistan

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A Swiss team without US Open champion Wawrinka, and the injured Federer, is more than likely going to go down in defeat to Uzbekistan on clay in Tashkent. The Swiss will fall from the World Group almost certainly, given Antoine Bellier, Henri Laaksonen, Adrien Bossel, and Johan Nikles aren’t even that accomplished on the challenger tour, much less the ATP level. Denis Istomin and Farrukh Dustov are both credible enough for Uzbekistan, and they are joined by young guns Sanjar Fayziev and Jurabek Karimov.

Brazil vs. Belgium

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The indoor hard court surface and home venue make Belgium the favorites to stay in the World Group vs. Brazil. Thiago Monteiro and Thomaz Bellucci are a bit more comfortable on clay, although the Brazilians have a great doubles team in the form of Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares.

Belgium‘s balanced team features a solid ATP player in the form of David Goffin, and veteran serve and volleyer Steve Darcis. Joris De Loore and Ruben Bemelmans are on hand for doubles. Goffin should get two wins, and I’d favor Darcis over Monteiro, even if Brazil can take the doubles and keep the tie alive.

Slovakia vs. Australia

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A grass court in Sydney gives team Australia the edge against Slovakia. Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic are leading the way, with Sam Groth and John Peers in for doubles. Slovakia counters with challenger tour regulars Andrej Martin and Jozef Kovalik, with Martin and Igor Zelenay scheduled for doubles. Tomic, Kyrgios, and Groth all love playing on grass, and they should dominate on this fast surface.

Chile vs. Canada

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Canada is playing at home in Halifax, and despite not having their strong team, they should still be able to dispatch a Chilean team that prefers clay. Vasek Pospisil leads team Canada, although he’s had a miserable year and could drop a match or two. Frank Dancevic, young gun Denis Shapovalov, and doubles specialist Adil Shamasdin round out the team.

Chile has challenger level players Gonzalo Lama, Christian Garin, Hans Podlipnik-Castillo, and Nicolas Jarry. Garin and Jarry may yet mature into ATP caliber players, but I doubt this will be a week to remember for them given Canada has a well rounded team.

Kazakhstan vs. Russia

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This hard court matchup in Moscow starts out with Russia being slight favorites, but Kazakhstan clearly capable of bridging that gap and winning this tie to remain in the World Group. Russia has a solid pairing of Andrey Kuznetsov and Evgeny Donskoy as their top two, with Konstantin Kravchuk and Andrey Rublev set for doubles.

Kazakhstan counters with veteran Mikhail Kukushkin, Aleksandr Nedovyesov, and Andrey Golubev, with Dmitry Popko in reserve. The Kazak team always plays with great chemistry and heart, but Russia has a stronger team, their players simply need to step up and will out a win.

Spain vs. India

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Rafael Nadal will be the talk of India, as he leads the Spanish armada into New Delhi to face an upstart Indian team. Nadal, David Ferrer, and the Lopez brothers, Marc and Feliciano, make up a loaded Spanish team.

India counters with the improving Ramkumar Ramanathan, and Saketh Myneni, with veteran Leander Paes for doubles. Sumit Nagal is in reserve. Team India has no business winning a single rubber in this tie, and anything less than a sweep for Spain, with their experienced ATP veterans, would be a shock.

Poland vs. Germany

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A battle of European neighbors on clay in Berlin. J.L Struff and veteran Florian Mayer feature for Germany, alongside Daniel Brands and Daniel Masur for doubles. Poland counters with a weaker team of challenger level players Kamil Majchrzak, Hubert Hurkacz, and a doubles team of Lukasz Kubot and Marcin Matkowski.

If Poland had Jerzy Janowicz, they might have a chance here, but even with Germany bringing their B team, they are still stronger at everything except the doubles. A Polish win in doubles would bring this tie into Sunday.

Ukraine vs. Japan

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Ukraine travels to Japan, led by their new national #1 Illya Marchenko, who achieved a best ever second week showing at the US Open. Marchenko is joined by Artem Smirnov, and Danylo Kalenichenko, with ATP veteran Sergiy Stakhovsky on the team, but not scheduled to play.

Japan has their top player Kei Nishikori, plus the solid Taro Daniel, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Yuichi Sugita. With Nishikori leading Japan, I’d be shocked to see them lose at home, as Ukraine is missing Stakhovsky and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Japan are clear favorites.

2016 ATP Memphis Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The Memphis Open is the first ATP tournament in North America, and is a 250 level indoor hard court event.

Memphis Open
ATP World Tour 250
February 8-14, 2016
Memphis, TN, USA
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: $618,030

Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (7)
2: Steve Johnson (29)
3: Donald Young (48)
4: Sam Querrey (58)

Memphis is primarily led by homegrown American players, while Kei Nishikori always seems to enjoy playing here as well.

First round matchups to watch:

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(Q)Jared Donaldson vs. (Q)Yoshihito Nisihoka

A battle between players who could potentially become ATP stars in the future. Both came through qualifying, and Nishioka is likely a minor favorite due to his (3 set) head to win against Donaldson last year. The speedy Nishioka has had a slightly better start to his season, and I expect him to get the best of the American this time.

(6)Sam Groth vs. Illya Marchenko

Big serving Sam Groth likes this surface, but he has just one win to start his season. Marchenko is lower ranked, but he reached his first ever ATP semifinal in Doha and could take advantage of this rather open field and post another deep run. Groth has a low margin for error if he gets broken, and Marchenko should find a way to prevail.

Dudi Sela vs. Ricardas Berankis

The undersized veteran Sela is a respectable 6-3 in 2016, and he’s another player who could grab critical ranking points with a run in this tournament. Berankis is capable of strong indoor play, and won their last meeting. Both players are undersized ball strikers with relatively clean games. Berankis talent most likely wins the day.

(WC)Taylor Fritz vs. (Q)Michael Mmoh

A battle of former top American juniors. Fritz is 9-2 to start his season, and at this point in his career likely has an edge over his teenage counterpart Mmoh. Mmoh is making his ATP debut after qualifying. He’s the son of a former Nigerian ATP pro, was born in Saudi Arabia, and represents the USA. Both have a promising future, and it will be enjoyable to check out their games in this match.

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Top Half:

Kei Nishikori seeks a fourth straight Memphis title, and he’s far and above the strongest player in the field. Nishikori is 5-2 to start the year, and he should move that to 6-2 with a round 2 victory over an American, either Ryan Harrison, or the young gun Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe is off to a consistent start at the Challenger level to start the season.

Nishikori is slated to face #5 seed Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Kudla rarely gets ATP draws this good, so this is a great opportunity for him to make a nice run. He’ll pit his 3-3 ATP record on the season against the serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram, with either Luca Vanni, or more likely, Mikhail Kukushkin, to follow. Vanni broke through in 2015, but has struggled to replicate that success early in the 2016 season. Given Nishikori outpaces Kudla’s ball striking, and that’s the American’s best weapon, Kei should cruise into the semis.

Sam Querrey retired in Melbourne and hasn’t had a great start to his season. He’s has to be glad to be back in the states for a match against either Matt Ebden or Henri Laaksonen. Ebden is 0-3 to start the season, while Laaksonen qualified, but has limited hard court success. Querrey should be able to reach the quarters. Groth/Marchenko will face Nishioka/Donaldson for the right to face him in those quarterfinals. It’ll be an interesting match between Marchenko and Nishioka, with Marchenko a slight dark horse favorite. Querrey has the most experience in this section and should reach the semis.

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Bottom Half:

Steve Johnson won a pair of matches in Melbourne, after a very poor start to 2016, and if he can continue heading in the right direction, he has a great chance at reaching the final. Johnson gets Mmoh/Fritz first up, where his experience should be enough to reach the quarters. John Millman is his likely quarterfinal opponent. Millman, a quarterfinalist in Montpellier, is finally finding ATP success, and his first opponent is American Austin Krajicek. The winner of that match faces either veteran Benjamin Becker, or young American wild card Tommy Paul. Becker could find some momentum, but my quarterfinal pick is Johnson over Millman.

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Donald Young isn’t in great form, but on home soil he should have an edge against either Malek Jaziri or Marcel Granollers. Jaziri hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Granollers continues his steady decline in singles. Berankis/Sela will face either Damir Dzumhur or Tim Smyczek for a spot in the semis. Smyczek reached the semis at the Dallas challenger, while Dzhumur has been in Europe, making that match somewhat interesting. Berankis vs. Young is my pick for the quarters, with Berankis advancing.

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Dark Horse: Illya Marchenko

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In a field with few standouts besides Nishikori, it’s anyone’s tournament, and Marchenko, after his run to the semis in Doha, has showed promise this season. A relative journeyman, he prefers hard courts, and could post another ATP semifinal with a couple of upset wins.

Predictions

Semis
Nishikori d. Querrey
Johnson d. Berankis

The top two seeds should reach the final.

Final
Nishikori d. Johnson

It’s hard to see Nishikori not winning Memphis, as anyone in the field would need to post a remarkable performance to beat him.

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Steen Kirby (Marseille)

Raonic Upsets Federer in Brisbane, Djokovic and Wawrinka off to winning starts in Doha and Chennai
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

ATP Brisbane

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Milos Raonic scored his second career win over Roger Federer, as the Canadian upset the Swiss legend 6-4 6-4 in Brisbane. Federer was suffering from the flu this week, and it showed, even though he reached the final. Raonic had that extra edge when needed to hold serve and grab a break in both sets, and he’s continuing to improve his bid for the top 10 with his 8th career ATP title.

Raonic needed three sets over Ivan Dodig, but his straight set wins over Lucas Pouille, and Bernard Tomic prepared him well for the final. Not much is new with Raonic’s game, but when he serves and returns as well as he did this week, he’s hard to stop.

A flu ravaged Federer still played well against Tobias Kamke, slipped past Grigor Dimitrov in three sets, and handled Dominic Thiem in straights. Dimitrov choked under pressure, while a subdued Federer was somewhat more aggressive than usual.

Henri Kontinen and John Peers beat Aussies Chris Guccione and James Duckworth in the doubles final.

ATP Doha

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Novak Djokovic will head into the Australian Open as a heavy favorite after his blistering warm-up run in Doha. The Serbian superstar and world #1 won his sixth consecutive tournament dating back to last season, and captured his first ever title in Doha with a thumping 6-1 6-2 win over Rafael Nadal. Djokovic has owned Nadal in recent years, and though the Spaniard played well before the final, he could only watch in awe as his game was dismantled from the start, later going on to compliment Djokovic’s performance.

Novak beat Dustin Brown, Fernando Verdasco, Leonardo Mayer, and Tomas Berdych as well this week, all without dropping a set, as he was rarely tested in Qatar.

Nadal lost his third ATP final in a row, but he still clawed his way past Pablo Carreno Busta in three sets, Robin Haase, Andrey Kuznetsov, and first time ATP semifinalist Illya Marchenko in the semifinals. Marchenko had the run of his life this week, scoring wins over David Ferrer, Teymuraz Gabashvili, and Jeremy Chardy with sharp, powerful baseline play. Things appear to be on the upswing for both players, and Nadal appears to be improving on hard courts.

The Lopez brothers, Feliciano and Marc, beat Philipp Petzschener and Alexander Peya in the doubles final.

ATP Chennai

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Stan Wawrinka won his fourth ATP Chennai title (third in a row) with a resounding win over first time ATP finalist Borna Coric 6-3 7-5. We’ll be seeing more from Coric, as the 19 year old won three setters over Marcel Granollers, Roberto Bautista Agut, and improving semifinalist Aljaz Bedene. He also beat Austin Krajicek in round 2 this week.

Wawrinka was simply the toast of the town with routine straight set wins over Andrey Rublev, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Benoit Paire before the final. He too looks to be a threat heading into the Australian Open as well, and could challenge Djokovic like he has in the past in Melbourne.

Oliver March and Fabrice Martin defeated Krajicek/Paire in the doubles final.

Steen Kirby (Marseille)

Former Champ Mahut Among Qualifiers at ATP Den Bosch 2015
Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic

Less than 24 hours after Stan Wawrinka’s impressive win over Novak Djokovic in the final of the French Open, the last round of qualifying got underway at the Topshelf Open in s-Hertogenbosch. The start of the competition saw two shock first round exits for the two highest ranked players, Chung Hyeon and Lucas Pouille, which paved the way for the lower rank players to book their place in the main draw.

The highest ranked player to survive the three qualifying rounds was 4th seed Tatsuma Ito who didn’t drop a set throughout the three rounds. In the final round Ito was up against Czech veteran Jan Hernych. The 35-year-old reached the final round after beating 8th seed Paul-Henri Mathieu in three sets. Hernych was however unable to produce another shock against the Japanese player as Ito took it 6-4, 6-4. In both sets the Czech took the lead by breaking Ito but failed to consolidate either of the breaks. The vulnerability of Hernych’s serve was problematic throughout as his rival battled to break him on five separate occasions.

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Nicolas Mahut maintained his recent solid form with a three sets win over Kenny de Schepper. Prior to the tournament, the Frenchman beat Ernests Gulbis to reach the third round of the French Open, his best result at Roland Garros since 2012. The run also elevated 19 places back into the top 100. The match was however far from straightforward for the former Den Bosch champion as Schepper forced Mahut to recover from a set down during the match which lasted almost two hours. Mahut gradually took the match 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. De Schepper reached the main draw as a lucky loser.

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Illya Marchenko endured a tough test against shock third round rival Aisam-ul-Haq Qureshi from Pakistan. Qureshi is a doubles specialist and hasn’t qualified for the main draw of any singles tournament since the ATP Helsinki Challenger back in 2009. Despite his lack of participation in singles tournaments, the Pakistani player reminded many of why he has been ranked as high as 125 in the world by recovering from a set and 0-3 down to force proceedings into a final set. Unfortunately the fairy tale ending for the Pakistani failed to happen as Merchenko battled to win 6-4, 6-7(6), 7-5. A big win for the Ukrainian in both a physical as well as a mental way.

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Finally, Marco Chiudinelli gave Swiss tennis fans yet another reason to celebrate as he completed the list of qualifiers. The Swiss player began qualification with a sensational straight sets victory over second seed Lucas Pouille, dropping just four games. He then beat wildcard Thiemo de Bakker in three sets to set up a final round showdown against world number 143 Pierre-Hugues Herbert. After being blown away in the first set by the Frenchman, Chiudinelli worked himself back into the match to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-1. It’s just the second tournament of 2015 for Marco.

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Qualifier Matchups in the Main Draw

(Q)Tatsuma Ito vs. Ričardas Berankis
Ito leads the head-to-head 2-0. He has beaten Berankis twice in 2014 in the final round of the Wimbledon qualification tournament and during the second round of qualification in Brisbane.

(Q)Nicolas Mahut vs. (WC)Lleyton Hewitt
Since 2008 they have played each other on three different surfaces (grass, clay and hard-courts). Hewitt leads the head-to-head 2-1, however, Mahut won their most recent meeting at the 2013 Newport Open which was on grass.

(Q)Marco Chiudinelli vs. Benoit Paire
First meeting

(Q)Illya Marchenko vs. Mikhail Youzhny
First meeting

(LL)Kenny de Schepper vs. Jurgen Melzer
First meeting

Adam Addicott TA Watermark