2019 ATP Brisbane Has Dimitrov, Nishikori, and Raonic Looking To Get On Track Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Brisbane is the start of the season for a good number of top players as they prepare for the Australian Open under the Australian sun. With the early rounds complete we take a look at the quarterfinals and beyond at this ATP 250 on hard courts.
Operating under a protected ranking, former AO finalist Tsonga has defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis and Taro Daniel to reach this stage. He benefited from Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal due to fatigue before Nadal was due to play his opening match. Home hero ADM, a rising star, represents a far tougher challenge though. ADM plays well at home and hasn’t dropped a set so far. Tsonga has experience but he’s still a bit shaky at times and I’d expect De Minaur to reach the semis.
After a rough 2018 for the formerly top 10 Raonic, he’s in good form so far, defeating Aljaz Bedene and Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets, with his serve game firing. This is another match where the young gun should have an edge over the legacy name though. The rising Medvedev (age 22) got a bye into round 2 and eased past a still sluggish Andy Murray in straight sets. Medvedev has dark horse potential at the AO and should be favored here.
Chardy upset a spider bit Nick Kyrgios and has once again reached the quarters of an ATP event. He’s not an elite player, but the Frenchman excels at playing at a good (but not great) level. He should have an edge over the less experienced Uchiyama, similarly to how he edged past J.L. Struff in three sets in round 1. The qualifier Uchiyama edged Ugo Humbert in round 1 before stunning Kyle Edmund in straight sets in round 2. It’s been a disappointing start for British tennis in Australia.
These two generational talents have significant history, including a 2017 Brisbane final meeting that saw Dimitrov prevail. Nishikori has won 4 of 5 meetings though and after a routine win against Denis Kudla he should be favored against the inconsistent Dimitrov. Dimitrov is aiming to return to the top 10 after a disappointing 2018, and a win against the top 10 Nishikori would be huge though. I expect a battle with Nishikori taking it.
Projected semifinals
Medvedev d. De Minaur
Nishikori d. Chardy
A rematch of last year’s Sydney finals in the semis of Brisbane, Medvedev is likely ahead of ADM at this point in their careers but it should be close. Nishikori is expected to lift the title though as he’s the most talented player left in the draw and his form looks solid.
Four singles matches were completed on Thursday at the BB&T Atlanta Open as the quarterfinals were set for 2018. Cam Norrie sprung the upset of the day as the ATP #73 came back from a set down to upset the ATP #43 Jeremy Chardy 5-7 6-4 6-4 in a closely fought battle. Norrie was stronger on a serve in a match that featured few breaks. Chardy erased two break point chances early in the first then broke late to take a one set lead. Norrie finally broke Chardy in the second set then squared things up with a steady performance. In the third Chardy was broken right away and was unable to recover as the fast rising Brit showed the improvements in his game over the last few months.
Marcos Baghdatis has once again posted a good run of results in Atlanta. By a score of 7-5 6-1 Baghdatis crushed young gun American Frances Tiafoe who served up 9 double faults and had an awful serving day. Tiafoe got an early break in the first but things quickly unraveled for the young American. Baghdatis generated 13 break point chances and broke 5 times in the match.
Australians Matt Ebden and Nick Kyrgios also reached the quarterfinals. Ebden was reliable under hot, fast conditions in the noon match as he defeated local favorite Donald Young 6-4 6-4. Ebden won all but 5 of his first serve points as he got late a break in the second set to close the match out and avoid having to spend more time on court than he had to.
Kyrgios needed less than an hour to aggressively dismantle Noah Rubin 7-5 6-2. NK fired 15 aces and won over 80% of his points on serve as Rubin started well but quickly unraveled after surrendering a break in the last game of the first set. Kyrgios moved around the court with ease and was able to hit from attacking positions for most of the match.
Raja/Skupski defeated Norrie and Taylor Fritz in the lone doubles match on the day.
The men’s quarterfinals in singles feature Ebden vs. Baghdatis, John Isner vs. Mischa Zverev, Norrie vs. Kyrgios, and Ryan Harrison vs. Hyeon Chung all taking place tomorrow.
The remaining doubles quarterfinals are Bryan/Tiafoe vs. Harrison/Ram and Arneodo/Chardy vs. Bambridge/O’Mara. Monroe/Smith and Raja/Skupski have already reached the semifinals.
The conclusion of the opening round of the main draw at the BB&T Atlanta Open 2018 saw five Americans advance into the round of 16, highlighted by local favorite Donald Young. Young recovered from a set down on Monday to win the second and third sets on Tuesday, saving a match point in the third, and also recovering from a break down in the third to prevail 2-6 7-6 7-6 against the veteran Croat. Karlovic’s normally steady serve failed him in the deciding set while Young was clutch to win just his second ATP match of the year.
Ryan Harrison also completed a comeback winning 4-6 7-6 6-1 over James Duckworth. With his wife cheering him on from the sidelines Harrison played a tough second set and a smooth third after struggling in the first, as Duckworth’s game melted in the heat. Taylor Fritz joins Harrison in the round of 16 after a routine 6-4 6-4 victory against Ramkumar Ramanathan. A tired Ramanathan generated no break point chances and struggled with his second serve.
Noah Rubin and Frances Tiafoe were the other Americans to win in straights. Rubin 6-3 6-4 over Thanasi Kokkinakis and Tiafoe 6-4 6-4 over Marius Copil. Neither Copil nor Kokkinakis generated a break in the match, as Rubin saved all three break points he faced.
In the other Tuesday singles matches, Cam Norrie ran away from a frustrated Malek Jaziri 7-5 6-0, Jeremy Chardy was too steady on serve against Ricardas Berankis winning 6-4 6-3. ATP veterans Marcos Baghdatis (6-4 6-1 against Alex Bolt), Mikhail Youzhny (6-2 6-0 against Emil Reinberg) and Mischa Zverev completed the R16 singles field. Zverev had match points in the second set tiebreak vs. Tim Smyczek but had to prevail in 3 sets 6-3 6-7 6-3 with his serve and volley game in a match that lasted over 2 and a half hours.
In doubles Donald Young and Chris Eubanks advanced in a third set tiebreak while Tiafoe/Bryan won in straights.
Tomorrow in singles it will be defending champion John Isner against Alex De Minaur, Hyeon Chung returning from injury against Fritz, Harrison against Lukas Lacko and veterans Youzhny and Zverev squaring off.
Roger Federer again reclaimed the #1 ranking by virtue of his title in Stuttgart that came 6-4 7-6 in the final against a resurgent Milos Raonic. Federer had some tough matches to open his grass court season in Germany, but he got past Mischa Zverev in 3, Guido Pella in straights, and Nick Kyrgios in a tight third set tiebreak earlier in the week, along with the Raonic victory.
Raonic had his best run of the year defeating Mirza Basic, Marton Fucsovics, Tomas Berdych, and Lucas Pouille without dropping a set or having his serve threatened en route to the final.
Germany’s Petzschner and Puetz defeat Lindstedt/Matkowski in the Mercedes Cup doubles final.
31 year old Richard Gasquet defeated his fellow over 30 French countryman Jeremy Chardy to win the Libema Open title in the Netherlands on grass. Gasquet claimed his first championship of the season 6-3 7-6 after previously winning matches against Evgeny Donskoy, Stefanos Tsitsipas and surprise semifinalist Bernard Tomic to reach the final.
Chardy moved to 9-1 on grass this season after defeating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Adrian Mannarino, Mackenzie McDonald and Matt Ebden to reach the final, he could be a dark horse at Wimbledon.
Inglot/Skugor defeated Klaasen/Venus in the doubles final.
Newlywed Marin Cilic The Top Seed at the Istanbul Open Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The clay 250 in Istanbul features newlywed Marin Cilic as it’s top seed, he’s joined by hungry group of ATP players seeking form ahead of the bigger clay court stops to come. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
Marin Cilic will open with Malek Jaziri or Marsel Ilhan, with a qualifier likely awaiting in the quarters. Neither Jiri Vesely nor Gerald Melzer are in good form, and I’d expect qualifiers Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Thiago Monteiro to knock them off, with Cilic edging Gimeno-Traver in the quarters. DGT is in good form at the challenger level.
Budapest semifinalist Andreas Seppi will face Laslo Djere or Denis Istomin in round 2, while Paolo Lorenzi should defeat Cem Ilkel before facing a qualifier, either Marco Trungelliti or Elias Ymer. Yet again I have a qualifier in the quarters, as Trungelliti is in far better form than Lorenzi. Seppi should reach the semis.
Damir Dzumhur is in poor form and will open against Thomas Fabbiano or Mikhail Youzhny. I’m not confident but I’ll put Dzumhur into the quarters opposite Jeremy Chardy. Chardy has a challenging opening match against Nikoloz Basilashvili, and then will face either Budapest finalist John Millman, or Dusan Lajovic, probably Lajovic given Millman’s fatigue. Chardy is my semifinalist from this weak section.
Aljaz Bedene, a semifinalist in Budapest, will face Matteo Berrettini or Taro Daniel in round 2, I have him winning that and advancing to the quarters opposite Rogerio Dutra Silva. The Brazilian should take advantage of a weak path of Radu Albot and Viktor Troicki/Bernard Tomic to reach the quarters. Tomic and Troicki are a shell of their abilities. Bedene should win the section.
2016 ATP Umag Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The seaside town of Umag in Croatia hosts a player favorite ATP 250 tournament in a week full of clay court 250 action.
Konzum Croatia Open Umag
ATP World Tour 250
Umag, Croatia
July 18-24, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Pablo Cuevas (20)
2: Joao Sousa (32)
3: Jeremy Chardy (38)
4: Fabio Fognini (39)
Although it lacks an elite field, Umag has a lot of competitive balance this week.
First round matchups to watch:
Gastao Elias vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
A battle of ATP semifinalists last week, Elias reached the semis in Bastad, while GGL did the same in Hamburg, and now they will battle in round 1 on clay a week later. Elias has a game good enough to compete with GGL, but the Spaniard is the favorite.
(6)Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Andreas Seppi
Seppi comes off Davis Cup play, while PCB has been solid enough on clay this year. Seppi is slightly better known, but the seeded Spaniard deserves to be called the favorite in this clay court match.
Former champion Pablo Cuevas is the top seed, and looks set to reach at least the semifinals, as long as he can get past Elias or GGL in his first match. 19 year old Nino Serdarusic, or veteran Teymuraz Gabashvili will face the Seppi/PCB winner for a spot in the quarters opposite Cuevas. Cuevas was a finalist in Hamburg most recently, and unless he’s fatigued, he’ll improve on his 21-7 clay mark this season and defeat likely PCB as well to reach the semis.
Fabio Fognini will face qualifier Andre Ghem or Hamburg semifinalist Renzo Olivo in round 2. Fognini comes off Davis Cup weekend, and although Olivo could upset him, you have to assume the veteran Italian dirtballer will find a way to win. Doubles specialist Franko Skugor has been a surprise to make this many ATP main draws, although he’s a wild card this time, but Thomas Fabbiano should defeat him in round 1, while Nicolas Almagro does the same against Damir Dzumhur. Almagro losing to Fognini is my pick in the quarters. It’s a tough section to predict, but Fognini has more upside these days on clay.
Joao Sousa has been poor on clay this year, but Leonardo Mayer has been struggling, and wild card Nikola Mektic lacks ATP experience. Sousa into the quarters opposite Hamburg champion Martin Klizan is my pick. Klizan should roll past Enrique Lopez-Perez, then Andrej Martin or Sergiy Stakhovsky. Klizan keeps playing well at the ATP 500 level, and suddenly had a tremendous week in Hamburg on clay. Coming out of injuries, Klizan vs. Sousa makes sense as a result on clay.
Jeremy Chardy is merely 6-6 on clay this year, setting up a good chance he’ll suffer an early defeat as the #3 seed. However, Aljaz Bedene is in poor form, and qualifier Nikola Cacic has little ATP experience, which makes Bedene a defacto favorite for the quarterfinals opposite Jiri Vesely. A struggling Vesely had Davis Cup weekend and opens with qualifier Michael Linzer, with either unfit Filip Krajinovic or Carlos Berlocq set for the next round. Berlocq is in solid form, but I have a feeling Vesely will still upset him, and then lose to Chardy in the quarterfinals, as they both play power tennis.
2015 ATP Shenzen and Kuala Lumpur Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2015 ATP Asian Swing starts with a pair of 250 tournaments, an indoor hard court tournament in Malaysia, and an outdoor hard court tournament in China.
ATP Shenzen
Shenzen Open
ATP World Tour 250
Shenzen, China
September 28-October 4, 2015
Prize Money: $607,940
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Marin Cilic (14)
3: Tommy Robredo (30)
4: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (29)
Shenzen four top 30 players in the field as the opening ATP tournament in China has a solid field.
First round matchups to watch:
(5)Adrian Mannarino vs. Lucas Pouille
Mannarino beat Pouille at the start of the season in Auckland in what turned out to be a sign of things to come or both players. They battled for three sets, and Mannarino went on to capture the title and post a solid season overall, while Pouille has dabbled with the ATP level and shown signs of a breakthrough. The younger Frenchman Pouille with his fantastic forehand comes off of the St. Petersburg quarterfinals and I have him upsetting Mannarino, as Adrian is just 2-5 since reaching the Bogota final this summer.
Top Half:
Tomas Berdych, the #1 seed, is struggling but he’ll have a winnable opening match with Austin Krajicek, after Krajicek beat James Duckworth in the opening round. Berdych has lost two straight and struggled over the Summer compared to his ranking but I’d still expect him to oust Krajicek and Jiri Vesely to reach the semifinals. Vesely faces Chinese wild card Ze Zhang in his opening match and then most likely Go Soeda, presuming Soeda defeats Zhizhen Zhang, an 18 year old Chinese wild card. The Czech has been in good form with a recent challenger semifinal, but his big hitting Davis Cup teammate Berdych is a superior player.
Tommy Robredo put together a great run in Shenzen last year and he comes off of the quarterfinals in St. Petersburg. The veteran Spaniard could be troubled and perhaps fall to Ricardas Berankis in round 2, but Berankis is just 1-3 in his last four matches. The Lithuanian opens with Hiroki Moriya in his opening match. Robredo was poor in his St. Petersburg semifinal match but I still give him an edge over Berankis, who is talented but streaky. Simone Bolelli should await Robredo/Berankis in the quarterfinals. The Italian upset Berdych to make the St. Petersburg quarterfinals and he’s in a weak section with Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Matt Ebden/Victor Estrella. Ebden, who plays well in Asia, has a shot at upsetting Estrella, but I have Bolelli getting through regardless.
Robredo is 2-0 on hard courts against Bolelli and his recent form has been slightly better, that should be a close and entertaining match, but look for Tommy to continue his success at this tournament and reach the semifinals.
US Open semifinalist Marin Cilic will open with John Millman after Ernests Gulbis retired against Millman in round 1. Cilic should be the favorite for this tournament and I expect him to dominate Millman, and then Aljaz Bedene or Hyeon Chung to reach the semifinals in a very weak section. Bedene opens with Mikhail Youzhny, while Chung opens with Di Wu, another of the Chinese locals. None of those players except for Chung have been in good form but Youzhny has been horrible most of this season. Chung comes off of a challenger title and may be fatigued. With that said, I have him defeating Wu and Bedene before falling to Cilic. Cilic beat Chung in Washington this year in straight sets.
Metz quarterfinalist Guillermo Garcia-Lopez could go out in his first match against Denis Istomin, presuming the St. Petersburg quarterfinalist Istomin defeats a struggling Lukas Rosol in round 1. Istomin and GGL are both good shotmakers and I have Istomin notching a solid win before going up against the Mannarino/Pouille winner. First Mannarino or Pouille will need to be Yan Bai or qualifier Takuto Niki, both of whom are lowly ranked. I have Pouille over Istomin in a breakthrough showing to reach the semifinals and face Cilic.
The talented Pouille already made a run in Auckland this year and in a weak section, presuming he knocks off Mannarino, he should take advantage once more in an ATP 250 hard court event and reach the semifinals. He’s talented, though he’s disappointed at times, and this is a great chance for him to make a run.
Predictions
Semis Berdych d. Robredo
Cilic d. Pouille
Berdych should simply outplay Robredo on this surface, Cilic is by far the strongest player in the bottom section.
Final Cilic d. Berdych
Cilic is in better form than Berdych, and thus I have him taking the title in Shenzen.
ATP Kuala Lumpur
Malaysian Open, Kuala Lumpur
ATP World Tour 250
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
September 28-October 4, 2015
Prize Money: $937,835
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Feliciano Lopez (17)
3: Ivo Karlovic (18)
4: Grigor Dimitrov (19)
The top 4 seeds are all top 20 players as KL has a strong field for a 250 event.
The young Zverev has lost two straight while Chardy is playing his first match since reaching the second week of the US Open. This is an interesting style contrast as Chardy hits with power on the forehand side while Zverev prefers to rally. On indoor hard Chardy should be a slight favorite, but Zverev is seeking an ATP breakthrough to get into the top 50 and it could come this Fall.
Joao Sousa vs. (Q)Michal Przysiezny
Sousa comes off the St. Petersburg final and the former champion could be fatigued for this one, Przysiezny is a former top 100 player who is 4-1 in his last five matches. Sousa will be favored but Przysiezny has an upset chance.
Almagro is 8-1 on the challenger tour level since the US Open, but he’s struggled at returning his game up to an ATP main draw caliber this season, not to mention he’s done better on clay than hard courts. Baghdatis, a fellow big hitting veteran, is just 1-3 since reaching the Atlanta final, and could use a win to help boost his form. This match could also go either way but I favor Baghdatis who seems to be more consistent.
Top Half:
David Ferrer should have a relatively free and clear path to the semifinals as the top seed. Ferrer is 38-10 this season and I’d expect him to ease past either Yuichi Sugita or Radek Stepanek in his first match, then beat Viktor Troicki in the quarterfinals, presuming Troicki defeats Radu Albot and the winner of Ramkumar Ramanathan/Mikhail Kukushkin. Kukushkin can find form in tournaments like this but he lost in the openig round of St. Petersburg. Troicki is 4-1 in the h2h against Kukushkin and beat him in the Sydney final this year. Ferrer is 3-1 against Troicki though he lost to him last year on hard courts in Shenzen. This 250 is a great chance for Ferrer to capture a title after an elbow injury limited him at the US Open.
Grigor Dimitrov is 26-17 on the year and has had his share of struggles, that said his indoor record historically is solid enough and he should have the edge over the Sousa/Przysiezny winner. Chardy/Zverev or Benjamin Becker (who dumped Sam Groth in round 1) could pose trouble in the quarterfinals, as Chardy/Becker are both relatively big servers and clean ballstrikers. Dimitrov is 2-1 against Chardy in the h2h and he should be motivated enough to try to finish the season strong with at least a semifinal showing in KL.
Bottom Half:
Feliciano Lopez was in fantastic form over his final two events of the North American hard court summer, the Cincy and US Open quarterfinalist opens his fall campaign against the winner of Mischa Zverev/Rajeev Ram. The elder Zverev is in good form and should defeat Ram, but the superior serve and volleyer Lopez (compared to Ram), should rech the quarterfinals. Almagro/Baghdatis is almost certain to play big server Vasek Pospisil in round 2, as Vasek opens with Yasutaka Uchiyama. Baghdatis could well beat Pospisil, but I have it Lopez over Pospisil in the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic has served his way to a 31-19 record on the year and on this fast surface he should be lethal against Nikoloz Basilashvili or a struggling Aleksandr Nedovyesov. In the quarters he should face Nick Kyrgios, who has a Malaysian mother and is somewhat of a home player in this one. Kyrgios beat Santiago Giraldo with ease in the opening round and the talented young gun should be motivated and focused enough to reach the semifinals over Karlovic. He’ll face Tatsuma Ito or the retiring Jarkko Nieminen in round 2.
Becker is just 8-18 at the ATP main draw level this year, and the veteran has struggled to stay healthy, but he’s a big server with a solid forehand and he moves well indoors, along with being a crafty shotmaker at his best. He’s 2-1 in his last three matches and the seeds Chardy and Dimitrov in his section are beatable.
Predictions
Semis Ferrer d. Dimitrov
Lopez d. Kyrgios
Ferrer has lost indoors to Dimitrov but he leads the h2h otherwise and he’s had a far better season. Lopez is 1-0 in the h2h over Kyrgios, and he’s in better form, so he should serve his way to the final.
Final Lopez d. Ferrer
Lopez leads the hard court h2h 5-4 and his fantastic form at the US Open bodes well for him to win this title. Ferrer still should have some rust on his game.
Djokovic Slated to Face Murray in 2015 ATP Rogers Cup Final Leich Sinha for Tennis Atlantic
Semifinal Saturday took place yesterday as Novak Djokovic ended the run of underdog Jeremy Chardy, and Andy Murray ran right past Kei Nishikori to setup a #1 vs #2 seed final, and yet another edition of their rivalry.
If you weren’t following this week’s results, you might have done a bit of a double take upon seeing Jeremy Chardy’s name in today’s semi final. The Frenchman after all was on a five match losing streak prior to this tournament, with his last win dating back to a third round drubbing of David Goffin at Roland Garros, and was unseeded entering this tournament. The benefactor of a snafu in the upper half of the draw during which most top seeds were defeated early, Chardy obtained his spot in the semis by way of narrowly edging out last week’s Citi Open finalist John Isner, where he showed great tenacity in saving 7 match points during a gruelling 3 hour slugfest after having previously defeated Ivo Karlovic, Leonardo Mayer and grass specialist Nicolas Mahut. Today, he found himself in the unenviable position of taking out world number 1 Novak Djokovic for a spot in Sunday’s final.
Novak, to be fair, has not had a perfect tournament, having had to fend off match points of his own in the quarterfinals against a resurgent Ernest Gulbis and suffering from what appears to be tendinitis in his right elbow. Nevertheless, the match played out exactly as expected as Novak cruised through a 6-4, 6-4 victory without facing a single break point. Ever the opportunist, Djokovic seized on Chardy’s early match jitters when the latter’s erratic ball toss motion caused him to double fault twice in a row at the start of the match and subsequently go down a break. Djokovic, from that point on, didn’t need to do much more than hold serve and play his tactical brand of tennis to close out the first set, always keeping Chardy’s best weapon, the forehand, at bay.
The second set proved to be much of the same, with Djokovic rarely missing his shots and engaging in neutral rallies with comfort and peace, secure in the knowledge that Chardy was unlikely to redline his game as long as his rhythm in rallies was disabled. He broke again the 5th game of the 2nd set after correctly guessing a forehand return which he crushed to the open court. The lone break was enough to seal the set and the match.
A day after his marquee straight sets victory over Rafael Nadal, it seemed that Kei Nishikori’s chances of securing a maiden Masters crown improved immeasurably upon that conquest. Nadal was after all the lone scalp of the big four that he’d yet to claim and to have dismissed him in such convincing fashion was surely a sign of the veil being lifted on tennis’ famed oligopoly. His dreams of entering that sacred vanguard were emphatically shattered by Britain’s Andy Murray on Saturday night as the Bolleteri protege was sent packing amidst a chorus of boos in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing before a packed house in Centre Court. Andy Murray, relentless in his pursuit of the break, mercilessly attacked Kei’s serve, often crowding in well inside the baseline to return Nishikori’s 2nd serve which he would invariably eat up and spit out to an untended area of the court.
Nishikori would often be found second guessing himself, pausing a moment to think about placement and strategy, but those brief times of reflection would provide no answer for Murray’s aggressive returning. The two exchanged breaks from the get go with Nishikori himself returning Andy’s 2nd serve quite well and even getting the upper hand in the rallies. But It was his inability to earn free points on serve or even hold serve that set the scene for the destruction. Demoralized by a critical third break in the 8th game of the set, a game which saw him get broken from up 40 love, Nishikori simply threw in the towel, appearing to readily succumb to the physical and mental toll mounting on his body.
In the second set, he would not even attempt to challenge Andy’s serve, preferring to let Andy serve out aces and hit return winners at will. After the match, he was seen limping into the press conference room, no doubt sore from two weeks of tennis, though one could perhaps estimate that the greatest injury came at the expense of his pride.
Nishikori’s had a very good run here and in Washington but there’s lots of work to be done if he wants to be considered a serious contender for the US Openr. As for Andy Murray, his groundstrokes seemed very sharp and he looks to be in great form after delivering two strong performances in a row. He’ll need to clean up a little better on serve if he wants any chance at defeating his rival Novak Djokovic but overall, he’s found his hard court game. Tomorrow’s final should prove to be a very interesting contest.
Previewing the Final
Two world class hard court players will battle once more, with Novak the favorite, as his counterpunching has had the edge over Murray in their last seven meetings.Four previous times they have met this year and though their Roland Garros meeting on clay was close, their three other hard court meetings have strongly favored Djokovic, and with that in mind the world #1 is likely to prevail.
2015 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Week 1 at the 2015 French Open at Roland Garros stayed relatively true to form, while some surprises and upsets took place, all of the top tier contenders are still alive going into the second week, and this second week should prove to be more exciting and pivotal than the first week was. Their was a notable absence of five setters and dramatic tennis on the men’s side, but regardless, here is a retrospective of the week that was, and a lookahead to the round of 16 and onwards.
2015 French Open Week 2 Preview
Men’s round of 16 matchups
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (20)Richard Gasquet
Novak Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set in three matches, coming close only once, and he’s looking dominant as usual coming in to the second week of play. Novak dominated Gilles Muller and Thanasi Kokkinakis, never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set, and prior to that he got past Jarkko Nieminen, as Nieminen was only able to raise his level for 1 set, a set he eventually lost. For Kokkinakis it was good to reach the third round on clay, but the young gun posed no threat to the world #1.
Gasquet has always struggled against Djokovic, and he had to fight to reach the second week. After dominating Germain Gigounon, a qualifier, he slayed Carlos Berlocq in 5 sets, and Kevin Anderson in 4 sets. Against Berlocq he struggled and dropped the 4th set, but the match was postponed for darkness, and the next day he found renewed form to win it.
Gasquet is fun to watch, and he’ll excite the crowds, but at best taking a set off of Novak would be quite the feat, and Djokovic in 3 sets is a reasonable pick.
(6)Rafael Nadal vs. Jack Sock
Nadal has looked as sharp as Djokovic in the first week, not dropping a set against three opponents, and never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set. He beat Quentin Halys, Nicolas Almagro, and Andrey Kuznetsov in routs, and appears to be rising up and rounding in to form on his favorite red clay in Paris.
Sock is the first American man to reach the second week of the French Open in quite some time, as the young gun American is a threat on red clay with his powerful, high RPM forehand that mimics Nadal to some extent. He uses it to clobber opponents and leave then struggling to beat him. He scored two upset wins this week, the first round was a three set win over a listless Grigor Dimitrov, who appears to be lacking belief these days, and the third round was total domination over teenager Borna Coric, who had scored two hard fought wins to reach the third round over Sam Querrey, and Tommy Robredo. In between those matches, Sock dropped his only set of the first week against dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta.
Sock is to some extent a poor man’s Nadal, and on clay Nadal has better defense, more experience, and the ability to match Sock shot for shot on the forehand side, thus this matchup isn’t great for him, and I have Rafa advancing in 3 sets. Nadal in 3 sets
(3)Andy Murray vs. Jeremy Chardy
Andy Murray has looked to be playing well in his first three matches, and he has a relatively easy fourth round encounter lined up against the inspired Frenchman Chardy who he is 6-1 against in his career, including a win this year on clay in Rome when Murray was fatigued.
The UK #1 dispatched a pair of young guns, Facundo Arguello, and Nick Kyrgios, the fan favorite Aussie, without dropping a set in rounds 1 and 3, as Murray remains a bad matchup or Kyrgios. In between, Joao Sousa challenge him for two sets, but Murray won in 4, as he fought through the Portugese’s stiff challenge.
Chardy did not enter the French Open in good form, but the home soil and French fans have really helped push him to another career performance in a slam, as reaching the second week is a great feat for him. He upset both John Isner and David Goffin to get this far, beating Goffin in straights in round 3, and Isner in 4 sets in round 2. Prior to that he beat Michael Berrer in 4 sets.
Chardy has had a nice run, but I don’t see Murray dropping a set against him as the Scot should simply move too well to be bothered by the Chardy bread and butter, Murray in 3 sets is the pick.
(7)David Ferrer vs. (9)Marin Cilic
A match that could turn out to be quite competitive, Ferrer leads the h2h over Cilic 3-2, and they haven’t met since 2011.
Ferrer was dominant in his first two matches notching routine wins over Lukas Lacko and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but he got sloppy against Simone Bolelli, who was punching through him at times and won two sets, eventually losing in 5 as he ran out of gas late.
Cilic appears to be rapidly picking up steam with his form and momentum, he beat Robin Haase, Andrea Arnaboldi, and Leonardo Mayer without dropping a set. Dominating Mayer, who was supposed to challenge him, as the Argentine was in good form going into that match.
It’s a hard pick for me to make, but I’m going to stick with Ferrer and his steady play to win the day, as Ferrer in 5 sets is my pick. This should be a great match, style wise alone.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs Teymuraz Gabashvili
No one is surprised to see Kei Nishikori here, but Gabashvili reaching the second week of a slam is quite the story. The Georgian/Russian has always had the talent but he’s underachieved a bit. This year his baseline power game has been on point, but the Japanese #1 will be his toughest challenge yet, and the road likely ends here for him.
Nishikori only had to play two matches to reach the second week, as he got a walkover in the third round against Benjamin Becker (who upset Fernando Verdasco earlier in the week). He drilled his backhand for wins against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Thomaz Bellucci without dropping a set in the first two rounds.
Gabashvili, who has beaten Nishikori once, compared to three losses including one this year on clay in Barcelona, beat higher ranked opponents Feliciano Lopez, Juan Monaco, and Lukas Rosol without dropping a set. He’s the most surprising name left on the men’s side, and he’s had a tough draw but dealt with it magnificently.
Credit to Gabashvili for getting this far, but I have a rested Nishikori in 3 sets.
(4)Tomas Berdych vs. (14)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Berdych just defeated Tsonga on clay in Madrid, and overall leads the h2h history, but with the French crowd rallying for Tsonga, who seems to play inspired tennis at Roland Garros, many people are looking for a different result this time, and an upset win for Tsonga.
I continue to feel Berdych isn’t getting enough credit for his results, and he continued the streak of not losing to a non top 5 player in quite some time with wins over Yoshihito Nishioka in 3 sets, and Radek Stepanek and Benoit Paire in four sets. Both Stepanek and Paire are rather odd matchups to face, but once Berdych got settled in, he put his hands firmly around the match and take control.
Tsonga has defeated Christian Lindell, Dudi Sela, and Pablo Andujar without dropping a set, though only Andujar can be considered an even halfway challenging opponent, so it’s still hard to tell where his form is right now, besides the fact he hasn’t slipped up when he shouldn’t.
Tsonga should give Tomas a great match, and he loves Paris, bit Berdych is too strong right now to lose this, and Berdych in 4 sets is my pick.
(8)Stan Wawrinka vs. (12)Gilles Simon
This match should be a slow grinding love affair with the red clay, and the Parisian crowd will increase Simon’s chances to win this one over Stan the man. Wawrinka has a minor 3-2 h2h edge but overall these two players are relatively even, as Simon manages to neutralize the Wawrinka backhand attack.
Wawrinka beat Marsel Ilhan, Dusan Lajovic, and American Steve Johnson, dropping just 1 set against Lajovic to reach the second week, as he has avoided a stumble, and even signs of trouble this time.
Simon clawed back to win in 4 against Lucas Pouille, and then upset Martin Klizan in straights before needing five sets against veteran Nicolas Mahut. Simon’s grinding could well win this, but I’m going with Wawrinka in 5 sets. He should be fresher for this one, and hasn’t had to face as difficult of opposition early on.
(2)Roger Federer vs. (13)Gael Monfils
The potential is there for either of these players to reach the final out of the bottom half, and this is a highly anticipated fourth round encounter coming up on Sunday. Monfils has won the last two meetings, both on clay against Federer without dropping a set, including this year in Monte Carlo, and thus it’s clear at a venue he loves, Roland Garros, where he feeds off the energy of the crowd to inspire his highlight worthy tennis, he’ll have a great chance to defeat a legend, and look to carve more Roland Garros history out himself as the home favorite player.
Monfils has had to scratch and claw in his all of his matches this week, as he’s the only player in the round of 16 who has played multiple five setters. He started the tournament winning in a surprise four over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, and then both Diego Schwartzman and Pablo Cuevas pushed the envelope and gave Gael all he could handle, but twice he would fight back. Against Schwartzman he was 2 sets to 1 down and then won the last two sets by a combined score of 12-4, against Cuevas he was down 2 sets to 1 and a break, only to roll off a number of games in the fourth set, and pump himself into a five set win over a choking Cuevas.
Federer should be much fresher, but he’s also older, he beat Alejandro Falla, Marcel Granollers and Damir Dzumhur without incident, not even dropping a set.
Monfils speed and variety can frustrate and both Federer, especially on clay, but Federer has actually had the edge here, and Monfils has looked shaky at times with his focus and consistency in week 1, thus Federer in 4 sets is my pick.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament:
Quarters: Djokovic d. Nadal in 4 Murray d. Ferrer in 4 Berdych d. Nishikori in 4 Federer d. Wawrinka in 3
Sticking with my original picks here basically, Djokovic, Murray, Berdych and Federer have given me no reason not to trust them to reach the semis, and they should be the favorites, not just as top 4 seeds, but also based on their current level of play. Nadal is unlikely to be able to maintain against Djokovic, Ferrer seems less talented than Murray right now, I give Berdych the edge on Kei, and Wawrinka tends to struggle against Federer, Simon could perhaps be more of a challenge.
Semis: Djokovic d. Murray in 4
Federer d. Berdych in 4
Sticking to my guns here as well, Berdych and Murray can both challenge their higher ranked opponents for at least a set, but over a period of five sets, I’d give the #1 and #2 decisive advantages.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer in 4
Djokovic should be better these days than Federer on clay, and if he loses the French Open this year, we’d have to consider it a choke in most imaginable circumstances.
Coric, Haase, and Muller advance to round 2 @EstorilOpen Monday Manuel Traquete for Tennis Atlantic
Monday at the Estoril Open saw the last round of qualifying being played, as well as the beginning of the singles main draw.
The last of qualifying brought a lot of disappointment to the Portuguese players and fans as both Pedro Sousa and Frederico Gil lost in very close matches, faltering in the deciding stages. Sousa led in both sets against 22yo Constant Lestienne, but his terrible play on big points – including no points won on serve in the deciding set tiebreak – cost him dearly and it’s the Frenchman who advanced to the main draw, where he will face Pablo Carreno Busta on Tuesday afternoon.
Lestienne d. P. Sousa 7-5 7-6(3)
As for the 2010 finalist of this event, Gil, he won the first set and was up 4-2 in the decider before getting broken back and then getting broken from 40-15 up in the last game to give away the match in what turned out to be another disappointment result in his attempt to return to the level he once reached before illness derailed him. His conqueror, Martin Fischer, will be facing Albert Montanes in round 1 of the main draw.
First seed Kenny de Schepper and fourth seed Roberto Carballes Baena secured very comfortable, one-sided wins and advanced to the main draw as well; De Schepper will open up against home favorite Gastão Elias, who reached the quarterfinals of this event in 2013 and 2014, while Carballes Baena will take on his countryman and newly crowned Bucharest champion Guillermo Garcia Lopez.
De Schepper d. David Vega Hernandez 6-2 6-2
Carballes Baena d. Gerald Granollers 6-0 6-3
As far as main draw action is concerned, Robin Haase opened up the proceedings against Ricardas Berankis; it was a very tight affair throughout, with plenty of momentum swings and players getting tight on key junctures but in the end the Dutchman managed to book a round 2 date with the tournament’s #1 seed Feliciano Lopez, though not before another trademark tiebreak loss in the second set.
Filip Krajinovic had little trouble disposing of Alejandro Gonzalez with his bigger serve making the difference in a match that featured a lot of long, tightly contested rallies; the Serb will now face either Nick Kyrgios or Albert Ramos in round 2.
Krajinovic d. Gonzalez 6-3 6-3
In what was perhaps the most anticipated match of the day, 18yo Borna Coric beat Jeremy Chardy in relatively straightforward fashion, avenging his Australian Open loss to the same opponent; as is often the case, Chardy hit his fair share of blistering winners but those were heavily outnumbered by the borderline ridiculous unforced errors; the young Croatian didn’t need to do anything all too special, the baseline consistency that we’ve come to associate with him was more than enough to prevail over Chardy’s inconsistent/erratic ballstriking. Next up for Coric is the winner of João Sousa vs Rui Machado, meaning that he must be feeling good about his chances of making yet another ATP quarterfinal.
Coric d. Chardy 6-2 6-4
Coric overcame Chardy on the day (photo credit: Manuel Traquete)
In the final match of the day on Center Court, 20yo Portuguese hope Frederico Silva took on Gilles Muller in a rare battle between two lefties. In the first set, Silva conceded an early break and was powerless against Muller’s fantastic serve, but he fought back in the second set, taking advantage of a dip in Muller’s serving level to sneak a break and level the match. He seemed to carry that momentum into the third set and got an early break chance, but after squandering it with a missed second serve return he checked out from the match mentally and it was all Muller until the end. Though this a very rare claycourt winner for the Luxembourgian, his run might well not be over with Fischer/Montanes looking like beatable opponents in the next round.
Muller d. Silva 6-3 3-6 6-1
Muller won the battle of the lefties (photo credit: Manuel Traquete)
On Tuesday, Kenny de Schepper and Gastão Elias will open up the proceedings at 1pm on court 2; it’s a match where, given the surface and his history of good performances at this event, the Portuguese player has to be considered the favorite, though De Schepper’s huge serve always gives him a shot on a great day despite his general shortcomings on the clay; after that, Bucharest champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face Roberto Carballes Baena and although form and ranking suggest Garcia Lopez should win, it won’t be easy for him to get going again after such a great week in Romania, it is after all rare for players below the very top to string consecutive great weeks of tennis and there’s bound to be a physical and emotional letdown after winning a title. Not only that, but when these two faced last year in the Casablanca semifinals Carballes Baena pushed eventual champions Garcia-Lopez to the very limit; considering that, the good form Baena showed during the qualifying tournament and the challenge that it will be for Garcia-Lopez to back up a title run last week, an upset could very well be on the cards in this one.
Court 2 action will finish with Nicolas Almagro, who’s still trying to comeback to his pre-injury level, taking on Stephane Robert. Despite his unimpressive form, Almagro has to be considered the huge favorite here; Robert’s most memorable career moment was an unbelievable comeback from 0-2 down in sets against perennial top 10 player Tomas Berdych in the 2011 French Open, but aside from that one result clay has never proved a happy hunting ground for him
On court 3, Pablo Carreno Busta will take on qualifier Constant Lestienne; the Spaniard is the obvious favorite but he’s not immune to upsets against lower ranked players as we’ve seen multiple times in the past year, not to mention that due to the way he plays he’s always vulnerable to opponents playing good quality attacking tennis. Lestienne must feel he’s in with a chance to spring an upset here. After that match, the 2009 and 2010 champion of this event, Albert Montañes, will take on Martin Fischer; Montañes is heavily declined and a mere shadow of the player who claimed back-to-back titles on Portuguese soil – even beating Roger Federer in the semifinals of the 2010 tournament – but should still have the edge in this contest.
On center court, Richard Gasquet will make a long-awaited return from the injury he sustained against Michael Berrer in Indian Wells; though there might still be some question marks about his health and especially match fitness, the draw was quite kind to him, pairing him up with Marinko Matosevic in round 1, a player who is notorious for his lack of success on clay. Even if he’s still rusty, the 2007 and 2012 finalist (lost to Djokovic and del Potro) should make it through to round 2. At 4pm, the all-Portuguese clash between Sousa and Machado will take place; while Machado was once, not too long ago, the highest ranked Portuguese player of all-time, he’s nowhere near that level currently and Sousa has surpassed him in pretty much every regard and is the clear favorite for tomorrow, though Machado is not without his chances, especially if he can repeat the level he showed last year at this tournament.
The last match of the day will be between young Aussie Nick Kyrgios and Albert Ramos from Spain; Kyrgios turned 20 years old on Monday and he will be looking to celebrate his birthday with his first clay win of the year, but it will be a tough ask against a seasoned claycourter like Ramos. Kyrgios has of course the much bigger game of the two players, but clay is not his best surface and he’s bound to still be a bit rusty after returning only last week from the injury sustained during his round 2 match against Dimitrov in the California desert, and there are plenty of question marks regarding his form, especially considering his match against Ymer last week in Barcelona wasn’t shown on television or streamed.
Tennis Atlantic 