Auckland Raised Cam Norrie Seeking 2019 ATP Auckland Title Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 250 in Auckland is New Zealand’s only ATP event, it’s preceded by the WTA ASB Classic at the same venue. with both tournaments serving as prep for the Australian Open. With the early rounds complete, who will prevail in the final?
The young American Fritz battles the Auckland raised Brit Norrie in a big match for both players. Fritz has knocked off two big servers, Marius Copil and compatriot John Isner (the top seed) to reach the quarters. Norrie upset Benoit Paire and Joao Sousa to reach this point. Norrie will have home support, but Fritz should be slightly favored if his game can stay consistent.
Both players had easy paths to this point, PCB got a walkover against David Ferrer, while Struff beat Laslo Djere with a retirement and then Jose Statham, who had upset Hyeon Chung in the previous round. PCB is the better player and should be in good shape to advance from this match.
Leonardo Mayer vs Tennys Sandgren
Both players needed to find form and will be pleased with their results thus far. Mayer upset Steve Johnson and Matteo Berrettini, while Sandgren defeated Max Marterer and Marco Cecchinato. This should be a competitive match, with the experienced Mayer a slight favorite.
Two skilled veterans, Kohli hasn’t dropped a set in wins against Bradley Klahn and Ugo Humbert, and he dominates the h2h against the Italian. Fognini barely beat Peter Gojowczyk, and I expect Kohlschreiber to reach the semis from this matchup.
Semis
Carreno Busta d. Fritz
Kohlschreiber d. Mayer
This is PCB’s tournament to lose, Kohlschreiber has great history in Auckland though and is also favored to reach the final.
American Contingent Including Sam Querrey Highlight ATP Winston-Salem 250 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Winston-Salem 250 is the final tune up before the US Open for a varied contingent of mid-level to fringe ATP players. Here is your look at all the action under the North Carolina sun.
Top Half:
Marton Fucsovics should be a strong favorite against Guido Andreozzi and Radu Albot in rounds 1 and 2. Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex De Minaur looks like an exciting matchup. The DC finalist De Minaur should be a slight favorite against the young Russian who already defeated Mirza Basic in round 1. De Minaur should emerge from the section as a quarterfinalist.
Ryan Harrison should run past wild card Borna Gojo, and then struggling veteran Gilles Simon. Harrison is good enough on American hard courts he could have a great run here. Taylor Fritz should emerge to face Harrison in round 3, Fritz needs to get past Malek Jaziri and Filip Krajinovic, both of whom are struggling. Harrison should reach the quarters.
Jan-Lennard Struff is in good form after beating Benoit Paire round 1, he should beat Marco Cecchinato to reach round 3 while Andreas Seppi will be favored in the section after beating Joao Sousa, with Nicolas Jarry on deck.
Sam Querrey should be the 4th quarterfinalist. neither Taro Daniel/John Millman in round 2 are in great form, and the rest of the section is weak. Damir Dzumhur/Tennys Sandgren will face off in round 2 presuming Sandgren defeats a slumping Ricardas Berankis. The winner in that matchup should fall to Querrey in round 3.
Pablo Carreno Busta is a potential champion, PCB should roll past Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Franko Skugor, with Peter Gojowczyk likely in round 3. Both Lukas Lacko and Horacio Zeballos are struggling. PCB will reach the quarters and should go further.
This is perhaps Hyeon Chung‘s moment to shine post-injury, Chung hasn’t had a significant result since his return to tour but a draw featuring Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in round 2 (GGL defeated Marcos Baghdatis), and most likely Nikoloz Basilashvili or Matteo Berrettini in round 3 looks to be easy enough to reach the quarters. I’ll back Berrettini past Julien Benneteau and Basilashvili, with Chung reaching the quarters.
Leonardo Mayer‘s good form suggests he’s well positioned to upset Kyle Edmund and then defeat Albert Ramos or Roberto Carballes Baena after RCB defeated Guido Pella in round 1. Mayer looks like a dark horse this week and should reach the quarters.
I have qualifier Tommy Paul defeating Laslo Djere, while Steve Johnson is looking to find form and should reach round 3. Andrey Rublev has struggled since playing well in Washington, Rublev should defeat Jaume Munar/Brayden Schnur in round 2, and I’ll back Johnson past Rublev on home soil to reach the quarters.
By a score of 6-4 0-6 7-6 Georgia’s Nikoloz Basilashvili claimed his maiden ATP title, lifting the Hamburg 500 crown against finalist Leonardo Mayer, a player who has made great improvements in his career standing thanks to the Hamburg tournament.
Basilashvili had to battle this week as he came through qualifying with a pair of wins. He then upset Phillipp Kohlschreiber on home clay in three sets, defeated accomplished clay courters Pablo Cuevas and Pablo Carreno Busta in straights, and then edged Nicolas Jarry in three sets in the semis. Against both Jarry and Mayer Basilashvili was bageled in the second set but won anyway as he showed streaky form this week.
Mayer defeated Albert Ramos, Gael Monfils, Diego Schwartzman, and Jozef Kovalik to reach the final, he needed three sets against both DSS and Kovalik, with the win against Kovalik coming in a third set tiebreak.
Peralta and Zeballos defeated Marach/Pavic in the doubles final, concluding the ATP 500 series on clay for 2018.
In the Gstaad 250 rapidly rising Italian Matteo Berrettini claimed his first title, upsetting Roberto Bautista Agut 7-6 6-4. Berrettini completed the double this week as he won the doubles title with his Italian partner Bracciali against Molchanov/Zelenay in straights.
The 22 year old from Rome has built himself this season and last on the challenger tour and in qualifying. This tournament he got past Radu Albot, Andrey Rublev, Feliciano Lopez, and Jurgen Zopp without dropping a set. The final win meaning he didn’t drop a set all week despite being an underdog in a couple of matches.
RBA put in a solid performance defeated Jaume Munar in three sets, Taro Daniel in straights, and Laslo Djere in three sets to reach the final.
Right now Italian tennis is having a resurgence as Fabio Fognini, Marco Cecchinato, and Berrettini are in good form, particularly on clay, and should form a formidable Davis Cup trio in the ties to come.
30 year old Leonardo Mayer lost in qualifying in Hamburg, but came back to win the title 6-4 4-6 6-3 over home hero Florian Mayer of Germany. Mayer was under pressure on serve in the third set, and got nipped in the second, but fought hard on clay to get the win. The Argentine has two career ATP titles and they have both come in Hamburg. After taking a lucky loser spot he defeated Albert Ramos from a set down, needing a third set tiebreak to grab the upset. Jan-Lennard Struff, Jiri Vesely, and Federico Delbonis, his countryman, fell to him prior to final. The elder Mayer, 33, defeated Marco Cecchinato, Andrey Kuznetsov, Diego Schwartzman, and Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the final. The result for both Mayer’s boosts their rankings, as Hamburg is probably the weakest 500 level stop on tour.
Ivan Dodig and Mate Pavic won the doubles final over Pablo Cuevas and Marc Lopez.
ATP Gstaad
Fabio Fognini won his fourth ATP title, defeating qualifier Yannick Hanfmann, a first time ATP finalist, 6-4 7-5. It was a long week for Fognini, he needed three sets against Norbert Gombos, Ernests Gulbis, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Hanfmann, 25, won six matches to reach his first career final, and needed three sets in all of his main draw wins, a rare feat that both players needed the maximum number of sets in their matches to reach the final. Hanfmann has 7 ATP wins this year, prior to this year he had none.
Olivier Marach and Philipp Oswald beat Jonathan Eysseric and Franko Skugor in the doubles final.
2017 ATP Houston Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
It’s time to preview and predict the last USA ATP Tour stop until the Summer, it’s the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships in Houston, which is also the only ATP Tour event played on har-tru clay.
Fayez Sarofim and Co. U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships
ATP World Tour 250
Houston, TX, USA
April 10-16, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $535,625
Top 4 seeds (who all recieve first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Jack Sock (15)
2: John Isner (23)
3: Sam Querrey (25)
4: Steve Johnson (29)
The top 4 seeds are all American, something quite fitting for the U.S. Clay Court Championships
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Feliciano Lopez vs. (WC)Bjorn Fratangelo
Having lost five straight Lopez badly needs some momentum and a win here, he’s favored against the American wild card Fratangelo, but Fratangelo is actually competitive on clay and with Lopez playing so poorly, I have Frantangelo pulling an upset.
(8)Thomaz Bellucci vs. Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe has limited tour experience overall, and even less on clay, but the veteran Bellucci is coming off of putting in road work in the Davis Cup and could be fatigued. Tiafoe showed good form in Miami and with the home fans behind him he has a great shot at knocking off a seed in this one.
Top Half:
2015 champion Jack Sock is returning from Australia, and he’ll be thankful for the bye in round 1, both Reilly Opelka and Tommy Haas are tricky opponents, but Sock should beat the big serving Opelka, then defeat Victor Estrella, who I have beating Hyeon Chung, returning from injury, and the Fratangelo/Lopez winner.
Steve Johnson looks set to defeat two-time and defending champion Juan Monaco, who opens with Dustin Brown and needs form having barely played this season, before falling to Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals. Verdasco opens with Kevin Anderson, who has yet to return to his former top 30 form, Nicolas Kicker or qualifier Noah Rubin will follow. Verdasco has a great draw and should emerge from this section.
Bottom Half:
John Isner is also traveling back from Australia, he could have trouble against qualifier Leonardo Mayer, but having formerly won this tournament he should find things comfortable enough in round 2, before defeating Donald Young in the quarters. Young needs to beat Thiago Monteiro and either Ernesto Escobedo or qualifier Tennys Sandgren, who is making his ATP main draw debut. Young has a great shot against Isner, but on clay I give Isner an edge.
Rogerio Dutra Silva comes off a challenger title, after facing Horacio Zeballos he should take on Sam Querrey, Querrey will then have Jared Donaldson/qualifier Maximo Gonzalez or Bellucci/Tiafoe in the quarters, most likely Donaldson. Querrey, like Sock, has had a good season thus far and should beat Donaldson to reach the semis in this open section.
Dark Horse: Leonardo Mayer
Mayer has shown his ability in the past to perform at a level beyond his current ranking, including on clay, if Isner is in poor form or simply jetlagged, the qualifier has a great shot at reaching the quarterfinals and beyond.
Predictions
Semis Verdasco d. Sock
Isner d. Querrey
Verdasco should be fresh and Sock did not impress in the Davis Cup, Isner on clay should edge past Querrey just given past performance at this tournament.
Final Verdasco d. Isner
This is a great opportunity for the veteran Verdasco to snatch a title late in his career.
Argentina and Croatia to Face off in 2016 Davis Cup Final Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 Davis Cup World Group semifinals saw two upsets, as Argentina and Croatia are set to do battle in the DC final after knocking off Great Britain and France in upsets. The World Group playoffs also saw a few upsets. Here is a recap of all of this weekend’s action.
Argentina got a huge boost on Friday from Juan Martin Del Potro, who stunned Andy Murray in a five set war, coming back from 2 sets to 1 down, to get off Argentina to a 1-0 start. Del Potro’s win was essential for Argentina to triumph, and he fended off Murray, and the Glasgow crowd in a thrilling opening rubber.
Guido Pella then followed up Del Potro’s win with a spirited performance to shock the favored Kyle Edmund in four sets. Edmund took the first set, but tailed off from there, and although Pella had a limited track record on hard courts, he didn’t appear fazed by the crowd, or Edmund’s game.
Team GB was on the ropes, but the tie would last into Sunday thanks to the Murray brothers beating Del Potro and Leonardo Mayer in doubles. After a grueling match on Friday, both Murray and Del Po returned to court, which was a bit of a surprise.
Murray got the job done vs. Pella in the 4th rubber, setting up Dan Evans vs. Mayer in the key 5th rubber, as Del Potro was skipped in favor of the fresh veteran Mayer. Evans fought mightily, but once again team GB saw their hopes slip away after taking a 1 set lead. Mayer battled back from a set down, and sent Argentina into the DC final with a spirited performance.
The Argentinian team showed great chemistry, while defending DC champions team GB looked lost all weekend, and simply ran up against a team of destiny in Argentina.
Croatia and France split rubbers on Friday, as was predicted, with Richard Gasquet cruising past Borna Coric, and Marin Cilic defeating the young gun Lucas Pouille in 4 sets.
From there the tie swung in favor of the underdog Croatians. Ivan Dodig and Cilic stunned doubles specialists Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut in 4 sets, setting up Cilic to finish the tie off and send his nation into an unexpected DC final on Sunday. Cilic faced Richard Gasquet, who struggled, and the former Grand Slam champion won in straight sets, setting him up for a chance to add Davis Cup champion to his resume.
Lucas Pouille won the dead rubber against Marin Draganja, regardless, Cilic was the hero of the weekend, and will be likely to face off with fellow big hitter and former US Open champion Del Potro in the DC final.
World Group Playoffs
Switzerland d. Uzbekistan 3-2
An undermanned Swiss team pulled off an amazing road upset against Uzbekistan to remain in the world group. Denis Istomin won his pair of rubbers against Antoine Bellier and Henri Laaksonen, but Laaksonen and Bellier won both of their other singles rubbers against Sanjar Fayziev, and Jurabek Karimov respectively. The deciding point turned out to be the doubles, as Laaksonen, the most experienced member of the Swiss team, teamed with Adrian Bossel to beat Farrukh Dustov and Denis Istomin, both of whom have ATP experience. Bellier won a live fifth rubber to send France through, as the unknown Swiss player made a splash this weekend.
David Goffin and Steve Darcis were all team Belgium needed, as they dominated Brazil, dropping just one set in their first two rubbers. Ruben Bemelmans and the unknown Joris De Loore combined to win the deciding doubles point, as they stunned Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares to clinch the tie. Both Thiago Monteiro and Thomaz Bellucci struggled for Brazil as well. Bellucci lost twice, as he fell to De Loore in a dead 4th rubber.
Australia d. Slovakia 3-0
Traveling to Sydney to face a solid Australian team turned into a nightmare for Slovakia, as Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic dominated Andrej Martin, and Jozef Kovalik on Friday. The Slovak team conceded the tie meekly to Sam Groth and John Peers, as they won the doubles point over Martin and Igor Zelenay. The Green and Gold are back in the world group, and look ready to do damage next year.
Canada dominated a weaker Chile team to maintain their spot in the world group. Frank Dancevic and Vasek Pospisil both dropped sets against Christian Garin and Nicolas Jarry in Friday rubbers, but won anyway, and Pospisil teamed with Adil Shamasdin to beat Jarry and Hans Podlipnik-Castillo in a tie clinching doubles match.
Denis Shapovalov made his DC debut as a teenager in a dead 4th rubber, he dispatched Garin, while Dancevic beat Gonzalo Lama in straights to complete the sweep.
Rain delayed the start of Russia vs. Kazakhstan, but it turned into home joy for the Russian fans as Andrey Kuznetsov came up big with a pair of critical wins over Aleksandr Nedovyesov and Mikhail Kukushkin respectively to take the tie. Kukushkin beat Evgeny Donskoy in the second rubber, but Andrey Golubev and Nedovyesov disappointed as they lost to Andrey Rublev and Konstantin Kravchuk in the doubles. The Kazakh’s veterans proved to not be enough.
The Lopez brothers carried Spain as Feliciano Lopez beat Ramkumar Ramanathan, and Marc Lopez teamed with Rafael Nadal to beat Saketh Myneni and Leander Paes in a tie clinching doubles rubber. David Ferrer snuck in an expected 2nd rubber win over Saketh Myneni, and he also beat Ramanathan, while Marc Lopez beat Sumit Nagal in dead rubbers. India put on a good showing, but they had no chance against an ATP quality Spanish team.
Jan-Lennard Struff was the hero for Germany, as his five set win over Kamil Majchrzak, and his three set win over Hubert Hurkacz carried the day for the German team over their Polish neighbors. Florian Mayer also beat Hurkacz, but wins by Majchrzak over Mayer on Sunday, and Lukasz Kubot and Marcin Matkowski over Daniel Brands and Daniel Masur in Saturday doubles kept Poland alive. It fell on Struff’s shoulders to get the critical fifth win, and he came through.
Japan d. Ukraine 5-0
Taro Daniel and Yoshihito Nishioka beat Sergiy Stakhovsky and Illya Marchenko right off the bat to put Japan 2-0 up before Kei Nishikori even took the court. Japan saved their #1 to clinch the tie, and with Yuichi Sugita they won the doubles and the tie over Artem Smirnov and Stakhovsky, who continues to struggle.
Daniel and Nisihoka finished out the sweep with dead rubber wins over Smirnov and Danylo Kalenichenko.
ATP Estoril Midweek Update Manuel Traquete, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 edition of the Portugal Open has been relatively upset free so far. 4 quarterfinalists are already know and they were all seeded: #3 seed Benoit Paire, fresh off a Barcelona semifinal showing, will take on 3-time Estoril semifinalist and #5 seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez for a place in the final weekend of the tournament, while the 2015 finalist and #2 seed Nick Kyrgios will take on the #6 seed Borna Coric, in an eagerly anticipated duel between the two young guns which is expected to be only the first of a long future rivalry. In fact, Kyrgios turned 21yo in the day of his round 2 match against Inigo Cervantes and was surprised with a cake and a video prepared by the tournament with several players and even his parents wishing him a happy birthday.
The #1 seed Gilles Simon (plays Mathieu), the #8 seed Carreno Busta (plays Taro Daniel), the #7 seed Leonardo Mayer (plays Lorenzi) and the #4 seed João Sousa (plays Almagro) will be looking to make it an all-seed quarter final lineup and all are solid favorites to do so except Sousa, whose opponent Almagro has scooped 12 clay titles during his illustrious career and has to be considered a favorite despite his decline.
Sousa will be under a lot of pressure, not only because, despite being clearly the best Portuguese player of all-time, he has underperformed in this tournament (R1 losses to Leonardo Mayer in 2014 and countryman Rui Machado last year) but because he’s the last Portuguese player alive in this year’s tournament. His brother Pedro Sousa was predictably routine by Mayer in the first round, the same having happened to the youngster Frederico Silva against Sousa’s R16 opponent Almagro. Gastão Elias got to Estoril fresh off winning the Turin Challenger and fulfilling his career ambition of reaching the top 100 in the rankings and he admitted to be physically and emotionally spent after his R1 loss to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Only Sousa is left to represent Portugal in the country’s only ATP tournament and it’s very probable that after tomorrow even he will be headed to Madrid.
Speaking of players coming off great weeks, Verdasco won the 6th title of his career in Bucharest winning a rain-delayed final on Monday. The organization did their best to give their last wildcard the maximum rest possible but even with a Wednesday start Verdasco clearly didn’t have much left in the tank and lost 1 and 3 to the two time Estoril semifinalist Carreno Busta.
With no top player featuring in the tournament (#18 Simon is the first seed) one could think we’d be in store for a very unpredictable tournament, but that has not been the case so far. Bizarrely, not a single round 1 match went into a decider and all the 4 round of 16 matches played so far were won by the seeds, with the only two deciding sets played having been very one-sided. Still, even with the predictability that has been dominating so far, it’s hard to predict who will be hoisting the trophy on Sunday afternoon as pretty much every player still left in the draw has reason to fancy their chances.
2016 ATP Estoril Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Tennis Atlantic will once again have on-site reporting from the 2016 Millennium Estoril Open, Portugal’s only ATP tournament. It’s a 250 level clay court tournament.
Millennium Estoril Open
ATP World Tour 250
Estoril, Portugal
April 25-May 1, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Gilles Simon (18)
2: Nick Kyrgios (20)
3: Benoit Paire (22)
4: Joao Sousa (34)
First round matchups to watch:
Gastao Elias vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Mathieu is 3-0 against Elias, but the Portugese home player comes off a great run in clay court challengers, featuring a semifinal, a quarterfinal, and a title. PHM was a quarterfinalist in Casablanca, and is looking to get into winning form. It’ll be a tough match, but I have the French player advancing.
Paolo Lorenzi vs. (Q)Elias Ymer
Bucharest quarterfinalist Paolo Lorenzi faces the young qualifer Ymer, who recently took a challenger title on clay. Lorenzi is a steady, and experienced dirtballer, while Ymer has a lot more upside and potential. This should be a good match for fans of clay court tennis, and I have Lorenzi advancing.
Top Half:
Gilles Simon will seek to give Estoril it’s second straight French champion, but to get that far he’ll need to defeat Elias or PHM, and then either Pablo Carreno Busta or Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals to get started. Simon is 10-5 on clay over the last two seasons, and he should reach the semifinals and move to 12-5. PCB is 4-3 over his last three clay court tournaments. He’s not in great form, but he should defeat current Bucharest finalist Verdasco, or a lucky loser, if Verdasco drops out of this draw after having to play a rain delayed Bucharest final on Monday. Monte Carlo qualifier Taro Daniel looks set to defeat qualifier Steven Diez before falling to PCB, who is the superior clay courter. Simon over PCB is my pick.
Barcelona semifinalist Benoit Paire has found form with just a pair of top ten losses in recent weeks, along with five wins. Paire should send either Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Kyle Edmund home, as neither player is in great form at the moment, then defeat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez for a spot in the semifinals. The Bucharest semifinalist GGL opens with serve and volleyer Michael Berrer, with either Thomas Fabbiano or qualifier Stephane Robert on deck, neither of whom are top players, or in good form. Paire is 2-1 against GGL in the head to head, and if he can stay focused, he has the edge.
Bottom Half:
Defending finalist Nick Kyrgios was 8-6 on clay last year, and is 14-4 on the season, making his clay debut this year in Estoril. Kyrgios is on track for a young gun battle with Borna Coric in the quarterfinals, as long as the Casablanca finalist defeats qualifier Andrea Arnaboldi and either Benjamin Becker or Rogerio Dutra Silva. Kyrgios has to beat either Daniel Munoz or Inigo Cervantes in round 2, both Spaniards are struggling. Coric and Kyrgios have never played, but I have Kyrgios advancing as he’s likely the better player at this point in their careers.
Portugese #1 Joao Sousa is in poor form and could really use a string of wins on home soil. Sousa should move to 2-3 on clay this season with a win over fellow struggler Nicolas Almagro. Almagro opens with Portugese local Frederico Ferreira Silva. Leonardo Mayer is good on clay, and should defeat local wild card Pedro Sousa, and the Lorenzi/Ymer winner to reach the quarterfinals in his first clay tournament of the season. Mayer over Sousa seems like the safe pick given Sousa’s poor play recently.
Non-seeds are unlikely to do well in Estoril, but if PHM can upset Simon, he’ll have a great shot at not only reaching the quarterfinals, but moving to the semis and beyond. He’s an experienced veteran who can find form and make a run from time to time.
Predictions
Semis Simon d. Paire
Kyrgios d. Mayer
Simon has won his previous three meetings against Paire, and Kyrgios is likely a sharper player than Mayer at the moment.
Final Kyrgios d. Simon
Simon and Kyrgios have never met, and it’s tough to pick a winner, but Kyrgios reached the final here last year, and he should be hungry for another ATP title this season, with a great chance to take one here.
Murray, Hewitt, and Rublev Star in Weekend Davis Cup Action Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Davis Cup had some exciting ties over the weekend as young guns, veterans, and a few top players starred in the action worldwide. Here is a recap of everything worth noting that went down.
Australia, Great Britain, Belgium and Argentina Advance From World Group Quarterfinals
The most anticipated tie of the weekend was between team GB and France at London Queen’s club on grass, and it did not disappoint as an emotional Andy Murray single handedly carried his team to a 3-1 victory in the tie. Murray had a part in all three of the needed wins for the players sporting the Union Jack, he beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga with ease on Friday, won a crucial doubles point with his brother Jamie in 4 sets on Saturday, and then closed out the tie with a win against Gilles Simon after dropping the first set. Simply put, the French team didn’t perform up to the level needed to defeat Murray, as their depth couldn’t beat the British star power.
James Ward lost the other rubber to Simon on Friday as he couldn’t repeat his Davis Cup heroics of previous ties.
The next opponent for the British will be their Commonwealth partners Australia, as the green and gold clawed back from 0-2 down on Friday against Kazakhstan and relied on the steady veteran presence of Lleyton Hewitt to push them into the semis. The Aussie young guns Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios both played poorly with the pressure on Friday, Kokkinakis failed to win a set against the veteran Mikhail Kukushkin on grass, while Kyrgios lost a 4 setter to Aleksandr Nedovyesov, and stated after that he wasn’t sure he wanted to be there playing DC.
Aussie captain Wally Masur, and Captain in waiting Lleyton Hewitt seemed to take that statement to heart, as Hewitt stepped up himself in his final year as a pro player. The veteran took part in the doubles rubber with the big serving Sam Groth and won it over Nedovyesov and Andrey Golubev, and then Groth beat Kukushkin in four sets, and Hewitt closed out Nedovyesov in straights to win the tie. He’s struggled all year in singles, but in what could have been his final Davis Cup match, Hewitt played fantastic, and proved why he’s one of the most tenacious battlers the game will ever see.
GB vs. Australia could well be something special with Hewitt, Murray, the Aussie young guns with a chance to redeem themselves, and a pro British crowd filling the stands in the UK as they look for a spot in the Davis Cup final.
The fatally weakened teams of Serbia and Canada both slumped to defeat against Argentina and Belgium respectively, Team Serbia lacked Novak Djokovic and on the road in Argentina on clay they clearly struggled without his talent and leadership. Leonardo Mayer and Federico Delbonis scored singles wins on Friday over Filip Krajinovic and Viktor Troicki, Delbonis’ win coming from two sets to love down, and then on Saturday Mayer and Carlos Berlocq clinched the tie with a routine win over Troicki/Nenad Zimonjic. The dead rubbers resulting in the tie ending 4-1.
Team Canada was without their injured stars Vasek Pospisil and Milos Raonic and without their big serving, they were whitewashed 5-0 by an undersized Belgian team on clay in Belgium. The Canadian team was uncomfortable on the slow surface, as Steve Darcis beat veteran journeyman Frank Dancevic in four sets,and David Goffin rolled young gun Filip Peliwo in straights. The tie was then clinched by Ruben Bemelmans/Kimmer Coppejans who beat the veteran rock of Daniel Nestor, and Adil Shamasdin in the doubles tie. Coppejans and Darcis beat Dancevic and Peliwo in the dead rubbers to complete the rout.
Argentina will travel to Belgium in an interesting tie that will decide the other finalist spot.
Russia, India among teams with chance at 2016 World Group Participation
Group 1 ties also took place across the globe and the biggest story was Russia toppling a B-list Spanish Armada to book their spot in the world group playoffs. The Spanish team, led by veteran Tommy Robredo, got off to a good start on indoor hard on the Pacific coast city of Vladivostok far on the Asian side of Russia. Robredo beat young gun Andrey Rublev in straights, making Rublev extremely flustered, and Pablo Andujar beat Karen Khachanov also in straights for a 2-0 lead. However it was clear the Russians had more team unity and spirit, while the Spanish, with turmoil in their federation and a recent change in coaches, couldn’t seal the deal. Evgeny Donskoy and Konstantin Kravchuk beat Marc Lopez/David Marrero, one of the top doubles teams in the world in a shocking five set Saturday upset. On Sunday Donskoy upset Robredo in 4 sets, and then Rublev was the hero, winning a surprisingly routine 5th rubber over Andujar. After some time in the wilderness, Russia, a nation with a strong history in tennis, is close to returning to the top tier of the Davis Cup, while Spain will spend another year away from the spotlight.
Also advancing from Europe’s group 1 are the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia. The Dutch upset Austria on the road and on clay, as Dominic Thiem choked away a ton of break points to hand Thiemo De Bakker an opening rubber win in five sets, and though Andreas Haider-Maurer steadied the ship with a win over Robin Haase to make the tie 1-1, Haase and Jean-Julien Rojer won the doubles over Jurgen Melzer/Oliver Marach, and then Haase beat a disoriented Thiem in straights to clinch. The tie ended 3-2 as the Austrians won the dead rubber, but all the same it was a surprisingly clutch performance from a Dutch team made up of well known headcases, while the young gun Thiem failed under pressure and now has a lot to think about.
The Poles won 3-1 over Ukraine, their team had more depth and it showed on indoor hard in Poland. Alex Dolgopolov of Ukraine won the opening rubber over Jerzy Janowicz in straights, but Michal Przysiezny scored a minor upset in straights over Sergiy Stakhovsky, Lukasz Kubot and Marcin Matkowski beat Dolgopolov and Denys Molchanov in double, and Janowicz closed out the tie with a four set win over Stakhovsky.
Slovakia went 1-0 down on the road against Romania on clay,as Marius Copil beat Norbert Gombos in a thrilling 12-10 5th set tiebreak, but then they rolled off three consecutive rubber wins to clinch the tie between the two former Eastern Bloc nations. Martin Klizan beat Adrian Ungur and Copil in singles, and in between Andrej Martin/Igor Zelejnay upset Florin Mergea/Horia Tecau, a top 5 doubles team, to win the pivotal doubles rubber, as the tie again ended 3-2 with a Romanian dead rubber win.
In Asia’s group 1 Uzbekistan and India were winners, as expected. Denis Istomin carried his Uzbek team with a doubles rubber win partnering with Farrukh Dustov, and two singles wins over South Korea, as Hyeon Chung, the young gun leading the Korean team, came down injured in the 4th and decisive rubber. India beat New Zealand despite the best efforts of Michael Venus and company, Somdev Devvarman recovered from a five set loss from two sets up on Friday in singles, and beat Marcus Daniell on Sunday, while Yuki Bhambri was key as he scored two singles wins over Jose Statham and Venus, his routine win over Venus in a live fifth rubber.
In the America’s group 1 on clay, Colombia slipped past Uruguay 3-2, and the Dominican Republic slipped past Ecuador 3-1(3-2). Alejandro Gonzalez went a key 2-0 in singles as Pablo Cuevas’s Uruguay came up just short. Pablo and his brother Martin played all the matches for Uruguay, winning the doubles rubber and the 4th rubber (P. Cuevas d. Giraldo) to force a live fifth rubber from 2-0 down at the start of Saturday, but Gonzalez closed out Martin for the win. Victor Estrella did what Andy Murray and Denis Istomin did, carrying the load for the DR even at his age as they beat a weak Ecuador team that lacked any sort of top player. Estrella won the 1st, and 4th rubbers, along with the doubles rubber.
Results from Group 2 as Dimitrov and Sousa star in wins
Chile blanked Mexico 5-0 in the Americas’ group 2, Pakistan will face Taiwan in the 3rd round of round 2 in Asia, and in Europe it will be Portugal vs. Belarus and Hungary vs. Bulgaria. Of note, Grigor Dimitrov played for Bulgaria this weekend (they won 5-0 over Luxembourg) and Joao Sousa ensured the Fins lost 4-1, they were led by veteran Jarkko Nieminen.
The most famed slam of them all is here, as the best men’s and women’s tennis players in the world will take to the crisp grass courts of Wimbledon in a show of skills, as they begin the quest for points and glory at SW19. Now that the draw is out, here is a preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon 2015 Preview
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
London, England
June 29-July 12, 2015
Prize Money: 26,750,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Milos Raonic (8)
8: David Ferrer (7)*
Even with the more complex Wimbledon seeding system, the top 8 seeds, are the top 8 players in the world presently, with Raonic and Ferrer switching spots.
All of the top names are here except for David Ferrer, who withdrew with an elbow injury after the draw was made.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Novak Djokovic will have to face the toughest round 1 opponent he’s faced at a Grand Slam in years, as the unseeded Kohlschreiber is a dark horse on grass in his own right, and even though he is 1-6 in the h2h, he’ll surely give this match his best effort. Djokovic, the defending, and two time, Wimbledon champion, didn’t play any of the ATP warm up tournaments on grass prior to this years tournament, and he went 1-1 in the Boodles challenger exhibition on grass. (losing to Alex Zverev, beating Richard Gasquet). After a disappointing Roland Garros result, Djokovic is showing signs of vulnerability, and the former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Kohlschreiber has to have hope of at least taking a set, and quite possibly making this a match. Kohlschreiber pushed Roger Federer to the brink of match point in their Halle match, eventually losing in three sets. I expect Djokovic to survive due to Kohlschreiber’s mental liabilities, but it won’t be easy.
(24)Leonardo Mayer vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Mayer, an Argentine, tends to prefer clay, and thusly he’s not a “Top 25” player on grass, as his seed would indicate. That said, he’s no slouch either as he comes off the quarterfinals in Nottingham after a pair of wins, and a third set tiebreak loss to Denis Istomin. Opposing him will be the young Australian Kokkinakis. Last year Nick Kyrgios was the one who made his breakthrough at Wimbledon, and now Kokkinakis will try to seize his moment. He’s still adjusting to grass but he’s a solid competitor with a good fast court game, meaning this match is about even odds in my mind. It’s a tough pick, but I’m going with the spirited Australian in 4 or 5 sets over Mayer.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Simone Bolelli
Last year they battled for five sets with Nishikori coming out on top at Wimbledon. The Japanese #1 comes off the semis in Halle, and hopefully he’s healthy and ready to make a push in London. Bolelli. a talented shotmaker is 5-2 on grass with a Nottingham quarterfinal on his resume in 2015. This one could well go five also, but Nishikori should be able break Bolelli down into errors and grab a win.
Stan the man beat Sousa at Wimbledon in straights last year, and now as a defending quarterfinalist and the French Open champion, he will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders to do well this year. Wawrinka slumped in a defeat to Kevin Anderson at Queens club, and could be vulnerable to a shocking upset, I don’t expect it to happen as Sousa went just 2-3 on grass in 2015, but he did beat Denis Istomin and Sam Groth, a pair of good grass courters, so the ability is there, though consistency is lacking for the streaky Portugese. Wawrinka is most likely to win in straights.
Dustin Brown vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A great grass court battle of unheralded players. The powerful serve and volleyer Brown qualified for Wimbledon with ease, and did the same in Stuttgart, as his game is at its peak on quick surfaces. Lu upset Halle finalist Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez to reach the quarterfinals in Nottingham, he also qualified at Queens and appears to be in good form with his baseline oriented weaponless game. Brown will provide more spark and excitement, but Lu should be the more reliable of the pair, and thus I have him advancing.
(13)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gilles Muller
My pick for the most notable seeded victim of round 1 is Tsonga. He played a close encounter with Muller last year on indoor hard, and he’s apparently not been healthy since the French Open semis. JW is fine on grass, but Muller is also excellent with his staunch serve and aggressive volley play. It should be 4 or 5 sets, but look for Muller to win some tiebreaks and get through this match in an upset.
Robin Haase vs. (Q)Alejandro Falla
A matchup with great grass court potential, Falla beat Haase last year in Halle on grass , and he qualified in Halle this year, and for Wimbledon, proving his forehand centric lefty game is still effective on the surface. Haase reached the semis in Den Bosch and can produce great varied tennis on grass, though his mental fortitude is continually lacking. This one could go either way, but I give Falla a slight edge to get through, perhaps in 5 sets.
You can’t beat this match if you like serve and volley tennis on grass, Lopez is 1-1 against Darcis, a fellow veteran with a similar style, though Flopez has more power, and flopez did get a win at Queens when they met on grass in 2012. Darcis famously beat Rafa here, and the otherwise journeyman Belgian simply loves the venue. That said is currently on a five match losing streak. Lopez has had a pedestrian grass court season, going 2-3, but he still has previous success at Wimbledon, and thus I give him the edge to advance.
(31)Jack Sock vs. Sam Groth
Sock will take on a player five years his senior, in the form of the big serving serve and volleyer Groth. The young gun American with a great forehand should have an advantage in this match given his well rounded game, but Groth will be able to apply constant pressure by holding his serve and if he can keep the error count down on his racquet he’ll have his shot in this one. The Australian reached the quarters in Stuttgart and won a challenger in title on grass this year. Sock elected not to play any of the ATP tournaments on grass as warm-up but presumably he’s healthy. I have Jack winning this but a Groth upset wouldn’t shock me.
The winner of Djokovic/Kohlschreiber will face Jarkko Nieminen or Lleyton Hewitt in round 2, as Djokovic could face two talented grass courters in consecutive matches. The former Wimbledon champion Hewitt is playing his final Wimbledon, and surely the legend wants to leave a final mark on the All-England Club center court against Djokovic. Hewitt has been in sharp decline and has been both mentally and physically struggling this year, but he’s still 5-0 against the speedy Nieminen, and thus I’m going with him to snap a losing streak and get to round 2, before bowing out against Novak, who is superior in every way at this point in their respective careers.
The draw does not get easier for Djokovic after Kohlschreiber and Hewitt/Nieminen, as a tough first week will conclude against former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic in all likelihood. Tomic, a Stuttgart quarterfinalist, will need to defeat JL Struff, who is in the midst of a losing streak, and then Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Hyeon Chung in round 2. Herbert, a big server. qualified for Wimbledon and should have the inside track against Chung, who has talent but is inexperienced on the surface. Look for Bernie to beat them both, and then fall to Djokovic as he has in the three previous times they have met, including the 2011 Wimbledon quarters.
14 seed Kevin Anderson, a finalist in Queens, should be able to cruise past young dirtballer Lucas Pouille. who has lost five straight, and likewise pass a stiffer test against Jerzy Janowicz, a former Wimbledon semifinalist in round 2. JJ reached the quarters in Halle but has failed to be consistent this year , I don’t see him dropping a set against journeyman Marsel Ilhan (5 straight losses), but Anderson with his strong serve+forehand combo is a much more challenging opponent, and given the 2-0 h2h, the South African should advance to round 3.
Thanasi Kokkinakis will have a great shot at the third round, and should make it, presuming he defeats Mayer. Marcel Granollers or Janko Tipsarevic, both struggling vets, will be his round 2 opponent, and it’s difficult to tell which Tipsy will show up for that match. Granollers isn’t great but at least he’s been able to play competitive tennis, and thus I have him as the one losing to Kokkinakis round 2. Anderson beat Kokkinakis last year, and given this is grass with the South Africans good form, look for Djokovic vs. Anderson in the round of 16, as Kev’s good form in Queens should carry him into the second week at Wimbledon.
The winner of Nishikori/Bolelli, presumably Kei unless we get carnage in the first quarter, will almost certainly face Santiago Giraldo in round 2, unless the Colombian is shocked by Joao Souza. who has almost never played on grass. Giraldo has struggled this season, and thus even with his power forehand game maxed, Nishikori is likely to advance to round 3 presuming he can get past the round 1 match.
In that third round, any of the four options could await. Denis Kudla, the-all court American wild card with a good grass game is here, and will have an upset chance against dirtballer Pablo Cuevas. Kudla is on a hot streak with a challenger final and a title on grass in consecutive weeks, he’s always been on the cusp of a breakthrough, so a third round run would be huge for his confidence. Teymuraz Gabashvili and Alex Zverev are also both unseeded players in good form, Gabashvili won a challenger recently, while Zverev beat Djokovic in an exhibition, and is 4-3 in ATP grass court tournaments this season. It’s a tough call between Zverev and Gabashvili, but I’m going with Zverev, and then Kudla over Zverev, before Nishikori beats Kudla in the third round, simply given the difference in talent and performance in their careers, and this season.
Marin Cilic and John Isner could be on a third round collision course, Cilic a Stuttgart semifinalist, appears to be finally getting back into top 10 form after coming back from injury, and he should blitz outgunned qualifier Hiroki Moriya in round 1. After that Cilic will also be a heavy favorite against Ricardas Berankis or Andreas Haider-Maurer. AHM much prefers clay, while Berankis qualified in Halle, I have Berankis winning the round 1 match, but losing routinely to Cilic.
Isner will face another Japanese qualifier, Go Soeda, in round 1, and the Queens semifinalist should also outgun his opponent. In round 2, Isner is likely to face Matt Ebden, a formerly top 100 Aussie who is a bit of a grass court specialist these days like Kudla, Ebden and Kudla have torn up the grass court challenger circuit in the UK this year (1 title, 1 final each) and Matty should roll past Blaz Rola, a former college tennis standout. Ebden could challenge Isner if the American can’t get off the blocks well, but in all likelihood it will be Cilic vs. Isner round 3.
Cilic dominates the h2h (4-0) against Isner, and with the exception of serve, is a better player than Isner in each of the important categories. It could be a battle, but Cilic should be the player who reaches the second week.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Wawrinka/Sousa will open with with Benjamin Becker or Victor Estrella. Becker is a good grass courter but hasn’t been healthy recently, while Estrella is on a five match losing streak. If Becker is healthy he should get through that round 1 match, but Wawrinka, barring a shocking collapse, has a safe path to the third round. Former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco could await there, he will open with Martin Klizan, who has power but not really a game built for grass. Verdasco should be able to defeat Klizan and then defeat Dominic Thiem or Dudi Sela in round 2. Sela is a career journeyman but the undersized Israeli is good on grass, while Thiem is adjusting to the surface and was a poor 1-3 this year. Thiem has more talent than Sela, but upset potential is there.
Verdasco vs. Wawrinka should be a great third round match, Verdasco actually leads the h2h 2-1 but they have never met on a fast surface, the match should be on Stan’s racquet regardless, as both players can play erratic or brilliant tennis depending on the day. Wawrinka’s backhand will collide with Verdasco’s forehand, and I see Wawrinka surviving that match to reach the round of 16.
The section below Wawrinka/Verdasco is wide open, the 16 seed is David Goffin, who reached the final in Den Bosch, his best ever result on grass. Goffin should cruise past dirtballer Horacio Zeballos and then defeat either Marinko Matosevic or British wild card Liam Broady in round 2. Matosevic has lost 11 matches in a row, Broady has lost 6 in a row in one of the most out of form grand slam matches you will witness. Broady should ride the home crowd to an upset win over the hapless Matosevic, before falling to Goffin. Nottingham semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis, who tends to peak on grass, even late in his career, with his aggressive quick strike game, will open with struggling Donald Young who is on a four match losing streak. Presuming Baghdatis is healthy and fit, he should win that one, and setup a meeting with either qualifier John Millman or Tommy Robredo. Millman has always been a talent but he’s been an underachiever , while Robredo has struggled this year and went 1-1 on grass in 2015. Millman upset Robredo in Sydney in 2013, and I have him doing so again, and upsetting the 19 seed. Baghdatis should beat Millman or Robredo for a spot in the third round.
Goffin-Baghdatis should be another great match, Baghdatis has a 3-0 h2h edge including two wins this year, and I give him the advantage if he’s healthy. Look for the veteran Baghdatis to advance to the second week given his previous semifinal result at Wimbledon years ago.
7 seed Milos Raonic will open with Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a dirtballer, Raonic has been slow returning from a foot injury, but he has a good draw to reach the second week. After DGT, Tommy Haas or Dusan Lajovic will be next. Haas has, as expected, been slow returning from injury as well, with a 1-2 record on grass, and though he should beat Lajovic, who is poor on grass, Raonic should prove to be too stiff of a test for the veteran German, Raonic beat Haas in 2013 on indoor hard in straights.
Look for Nick Kyrgios to also reach the third round, after his run to the quarterfinals last year. Kyrgios has been struggling under the pressure of being the top young gun in the game at the moment, but Diego Schwartzman, his round 1 opponent, is a dirtballer, and neither Juan Monaco, nor a struggling Florian Mayer should be able to oust him in round 2. Monaco is another South American relatively allergic to grass, while Mayer reached the quarters in Halle, but the veteran has otherwise struggled. Kyrgios-Mayer could be good but presuming NK is healthy he should be fine, he tends to peak for slams.
Raonic-Kyrgios could be a great match, and NK shouldn’t be counted out, especially with Raonic having the lingering effects of a foot injury, but his relentless serve should baffle Kyrgios just like it did at Wimbledon last year, where Kyrgios was in better form. The Queens quarterfinalist Raonic should reach the second week.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov opens with Federico Delbonis, and the winner of Lukas Lacko/Steve Johnson will follow that. Dimitrov is struggling, a winner of just two of his last six matches but he reached the semis here last year and should at least get to round 2. Johnson and Lacko are both inconsistent, but if on, could trouble Dimitrov, that said I have Grisha reaching round 3 and setting up a match against Richard Gasquet, the versatile French veteran. Gasquet opens with qualifier Luke Saville, who could trouble him given his previous junior success at Wimbledon (2011 boys champion). Gasquet should win that though and then beat either qualifier JP Smith or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, more likely De Schepper, to get that match against Dimitrov.
Gasquet is 4-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, that said the match should still be a battle if they meet in round 3. Gasquet should advance though given Dimitrov’s poor form, and thus reach the second week.
The former Wimbledon champion, and current Queens club champion Andy Murray once again has the hopes of a nation on him at Wimbledon. His form has been fantastic all season, across the surfaces, and he should blitz into the fourth round with relative ease. Mikhail Kukushkin, who is struggling, is an easy out in round 1, and then Haase/Falla would challenge him given this is grass, but it’s unlikely they will be able to maintain the level needed to oust the UK #1. In the third round, Andreas Seppi, the Halle finalist, should await. Seppi with his varied game should be able to dispatch Brydan Klein, a UK wild card, and the winner of Sergiy Stakhovsky/Borna Coric. Coric/Stako have split meetings this year, Stakhovsky is superior on grass and thus he’s the favorite with his serve and volley game. Stako could also give Seppi problems but he hasn’t been entirely healthy. Murray is 6-1 in his career vs Seppi.
Tsonga/Muller will face Denis Istomin or Albert Ramos in round 2, Istomin won the title in Nottingham and he’s a good grass courter so he could trouble either Muller or Tsonga, but given the fatigue factor I have Muller into the third round. Ivo Karlovic will face Elias Ymer, a qualifier, in round 1, Dr. Ivo should win that with his big serve, andthen Kyle Edmund, a wild card, or Alexandr Dolgopolov will await. Dolgopolov is in good form and has two previous h2h wins over Ivo, thus I have him advancing into the third round. The Ukrainian shotmaker defeated Rafael Nadal at Queens and reached the semis in Nottingham while Karlovic reached the semis in Halle, and upset Tomas Berdych.
Muller-Dolgopolov (or Tsonga/Karlovic/Istomin) here should make for an interesting third rounder, Dolgo, if on, is a top 20 player in terms of talent, but he tends to have lapses in his game, while Muller is steady but doesn’t have as much of a peak. Either serve as a dark horse, and I have Dolgopolov getting past the two servebots Karlovic and Muller to reach the second week.
Rafael Nadal,the champion in Stuttgart, will be looking to avoid an early exit against Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal tends to be boom or bust on grass these days, and Bellucci has power, but he’s not great on grass, thus Nadal should win that, and beat Brown or Lu in round 2. Brown could trouble Nadal, as he has beaten Rafa before on grass, but I don’t see that resulting repeating itself unless Dreddy can redline his game. In the third round, Viktor Troicki, the player he faced in the Stuttgart final, is his likely opponent. Troicki opens with Alex Nedovyesov, a qualifier, and then the winner of Radek Stepanek/Aljaz Bedene. Stepanek is a declined veteran, though formerly good on grass, and with Troicki in red hot form, he shouldn’t have issue reaching the third round.
Nadal is 5-0 in his career against Troicki, so barring a shot he should dispatch the Stuttgart finalist and Queens semifinalist to reach the second week.
After the Ferrer withdrawal, lucky loser Luca Vanni will be an underdog against British wild card James Ward, as Ward has a great chance to go as far as the fourth round on grass. At a minimum, Wardy should rise and defeat Vanni in front of home fans. After that Jiri Vesely, who opens with grass allergic Paolo Lorenzi awaits. Ward isn’t in great form, while Vesely isn’t great on grass, that said, Vesely has more talent so I see him reaching the third round.
30 seed Fabio Fognini opens with a struggling Tim Smyczek, Fognini is volatile and not great on grass, thus Smyczek will have his chance, but Fognini is more likely to be ousted by a hopefully healthy Vasek Pospisil in round 2. Pospisil opens with qualifier Vincent Millot, a French journeyman veteran. He’s showed signs of improvement though he’s struggled, from time to time this year and in a weak section, I have him upsetting Fognini to reach round 3.
It’s amazing that any of the players in this section would reach the fourth round, Pospisil-Vesely is my pick for the third round matchup, and that’s a coin flip to me. I have Pospisil advancing based upon the surface, but he hasn’t showed the form needed to reach the second week of a slam in quite some time, so perhaps this is Vesely’s time to rise.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 7 time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer will again serve it up at SW19, in what is perhaps his last realistic chance to win another Grand Slam and add to his record setting total. A finalist last year, the Swiss should roll past Damir Dzumhur, and either Nottingham finalist Sam Querrey, or qualifier Igor Sijsling to reach the third round. Sock/Groth should await him in round 3, and I don’t see them giving him too much trouble given this is grass. Sock/Groth faces the winner of Malek Jaziri/James Duckworth in round 2.
Lopez/Darcis will face Nikolosz Basilashvili, a qualifier, or dirtballer Facundo Bagnis round 2. Lopez presuming he gets past Darcis shouldn’t have a problem reaching the third round. Roberto Bautista Agut could await there for an all-Spanish battle, presuming RBA beats all courter Ruben Bemelmans, and then Benoit Paire or Mikhail Youzhny. Paire hates grass, while Youzhny is nearing retirement and in poor form. I actually have RBA losing to Bemelmans in an upset, but I may be too bullish on that. The Belgian qualified for Nottingham while RBA has lost three straight. Bemelmans should also defeat Paire or Youzhny, and I have Bemelmans over Youzhny in my bracket.
Given this is grass, Lopez should reach the second week and defeat Bemelmans or another opponent, even though his season has been poor thus far.
Tomas Berdych will open with Jeremy Chardy, who he has a 3-0 h2h advantage against. Berdych reached the quarters in Halle and the former Wimbledon finalist should be able to get past that one. Wild card Nicolas Mahut, the Den Bosch champion, is a dangerous grass court serve and volleyer in round 2, presuming he rolls past Filip Krajinovic, but Berdych should have too much power for Mahut, and also one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Pablo Andujar/Ernests Gulbis/Lukas Rosol in round 3. Gulbis has been awful this year, and Rosol can be a powerful ball basher on grass, thus look for Rosol to beat Gulbis, and also Garcia-Lopez given this is grass to reach round 3. GGL reached the quarters in Queens and beat Andujar there.
Rosol is to some extent a poor man’s Berdych, given their similar styles, and the fact Berdych does everything better than Rosol, Tomas should reach the round of 16 in the battle of Davis Cup teammates. He has a 2-0 h2h edge on hard courts.
12 seed Gilles Simon opens with Nicolas Almagro, with the winner of qualifier Yuichi Sugita/Blaz Kavcic to follow. The Queens semifinalist and Nottingham quarterfinalist Simon, who has been steady this year, should advance through those matches with ease to reach round 3. Sugita is good on grass and should beat Kavcic.
18 seed Gael Monfils opens with dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then Adrian Mannarino or Michael Berrer in round 2. Berrer qualified, while Mannarino, a Den Bosch quarterfinalist, is a good all-courter. Mannarino should give Monfils a test, but the Stuttgart semifinalist and Halle quarterfinalist should come through and reach round 3 to setup an all-French battle with Simon.
Simon-Monfils has previously given us some of the most exciting, yet boring tennis known to man, that said, Simon dominates the h2h 5-1, and he won a h2h meeting this year in Marseille, given his good form, Gilles is the favorite for the round of 16.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Simone Bolelli, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexandr Dolgopolov/Gilles Muller, Ruben Bemelmans
Bolelli would need to defeat Nishikori, but if he pulls off that feat the Italian shotmaker will be the favorite in every possible match going into the round of 16, and there he would have a chance against Cilic/Isner. Baghdatis should reach the round of 16, and I wouldn’t put it past him to upset Wawrinka/Verdasco there.
Dolgopolov or Muller are reaching week 2 in my bracket, I don’t see them getting past Murray though ,while Bemelmans could reach the second week if Lopez comes up short. Upsetting RBA would be a big move for him.
Djokovic d. Anderson
Cilic d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Baghdatis
Raonic d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Pospisil
Murray d. Dolgopolov
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Lopez
Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has a Wimbledon win, Cilic and Nishikori are rivals and Kei has a 5-3 edge in that one, that said this is grass and I feel Cilic has a small advantage now that he’s coming into form, just like his upset win at the US Open in the 2014 final.
Wawrinka is 5-0 against Baghdatis and has a grass court win, making me feel more at ease picking him. Raonic just beat Gasquet at Queens and leads the h2h 3-1 in that one, he should improve with each match he plays and serve his way into the quarters.
Presuming Nadal reaches the round of 16, his matchup there should be easy and the quarters is close a lock for Rafa. Murray is 3-0 against Dolgo and superior on grass, so he also should accelerate into the quarters. Murray beat Muller at Queens this year.
Simon leads the h2h 6-4 against Berdych but Berdych won their meeting this year, and has been solid this year, I feel he will overpower the Frenchman to reach the quarters. Fed is 11-0 against Lopez and I don’t see him losing before the quarters.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Raonic d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Nadal
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic beat Cilic at Wimbledon last year in 5 sets, and he leads the h2h 12-0 in that matchup, Wawrinka is 4-0 against Raonic, but their matchups have been relatively close, and this is grass, a surface I feel swings the advantage to Raonic.
Murray shocked Nadal in Madrid this year and though Rafa is 3-0 at Wimbledon in the h2h, Murray is in some of the best form of his career right now, while Rafa is not, and with that being the case, I have Murray advancing in a battle. Federer has twice beaten Berdych this year, and tends to dominate that matchup on the mental side. Federer has a loss to Berdych at Wimby but leads the grass h2h 2-1 and I see the world #2 living up to his ranking and getting through.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic is 5-0 against Raonic, it’s not out of the equation that he could be tripped up, but Djokovic rolled at their AO meeting this year, and Raonic has yet to prove he can rise up in slams and conjure up a level of play needed to beat the world #1.
Murray hasn’t beaten Federer since back surgery, but he famously beat him in the 2012 Wimbledon final and as mentioned, his form is at its peak at the moment. I’d be surprised if Murray can’t will himself into the final this year, given how solid he’s been all season, it’d be a deserved result for him to get past Fed.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic
I wouldn’t have predicted this result until Djokovic lost in the French Open final to Wawrinka. That result was a mental blow to him and I feel that result will reverberate through the rest of his 2015 season. He struggled under the pressure there, and he has show signs the loss is affecting him. He’s a more talented and skillful player than Murray, but Murray has will and heart on his side at the moment, he appears at ease with his game, and himself, and if there is any surface he can beat Novak on, it’s grass, as their previous Wimbledon final showed.
Novak hasn’t lost to Murray since his back surgery, but Murray appears back, and I was impressed by AM pushing Novak to five sets on clay at the French. Rather than pressure, look for Murray to feed off the home crowd and home cooking and take home a third grand slam title and second Wimbledon title.
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