Bernard Tomic was on court a full five minutes before Lukas Lacko sauntered into his first round main draw match on Grandstand court this afternoon just before 2:30. Early bird Tomic sent Lacko packing in 53 minutes, 6-4, 6-2, and will face top seed John Isner on Wednesday night at the New York Open.
On facing Isner, I got a great quote out of him: “I think it’s gonna be pretty easy, no?”
Bernard Tomic, 2019 New York Open
Bernard Tomic, 2019 New York Open
Seriously though. “We’ve played a couple of times,” he told me after the match. “Last time I had a chance to win. I lost 7-6 in the 4th (set) in Davis Cup. You know, he has one of the best serves in the world. There’s not much you can do sometimes. I have to go out there and try to play the way I did today.”
Tomic appeared on Australian Television last week and described the poor treatment he received from former US Open champion Lleyton Hewitt during the early days of Tomic’s career.
“There’s a lot of pressure in this sport and you learn how to deal with it,” Tomic told me. “I had a lot of pressure when I was young. I’ve played really solid and really well so far in my career. I mean I haven’t won slams and that, but maybe that’s something I can do in the future. But 10 years in this career, maybe 8-10 years still in this career. I still feel super young. I’m 26 and there’s guys who are 38, 37, 39 and still playing. It’s been a long journey, but got to keep going and do what I do and hopefully one day it’ll pay off.”
2016 Davis Cup World Group Round 1 Recap: Serbia Survives, Czechs and Americans Prevail Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Davis Cup World Group saw no opening round upsets this year, though a star studded Serbia team was put to the test against Kazakhstan. Here is a recap of all the weekend Davis Cup action.
Andy Murray nearly did it alone for team GB in Birmingham. The British #1 demolished Taro Daniel on Friday, then teamed with his brother Jamie to handle the Japanese doubles team of Yasutaka Uchiyama and Yoshihito Nishioka on Saturday. Kei Nishikori had beaten Dan Evans in a competitive three set contest on Friday to force competitive action on Saturday, but he would need to get past Murray to force a live fifth rubber.
Murray quickly build a two set lead, at which point Nishikori had his back against the wall. Kei forced a fifth set with improved play, but after five breaks of serve in the final set, Murray served the match out to win the tie. The fifth rubber was then canceled as Birmingham native Dan Evans was only needed once. Next for the defending champion Brits is team Serbia on the road.
Serbia d. Kazakhstan 3-2
Serbia had a top 20 doubles player,the world #1 singles player Novak Djokovic, and top 30 player Viktor Troicki on their squad. On paper, they should have swept at Kazakh team playing on the road without a top 50 player. When it came to the actual matches, the result ended up being quite different. Djokovic started the tie with a routine win over challenger veteran Aleksandr Nedovyesov in straight sets, but team leader Mikhail Kukushkin steadied his team and upset Viktor Troicki in straight sets to even the tie at 1-1 on Friday.
Andrey Golubev and Nedovyesov then combined to stun Djokovic and Nenad Zimonjic for the biggest win of their career in doubles. Even more shockingly, the Golubev/Nedovyesov tandem got the job done in straight sets, as Djokovic was well off his game.
Facing elimination, Djokovic went up against Kukushkin in an all out war for the first three sets. Kukushkin won the first set in a tiebreak, lost the second set tiebreak, and then came back to win the third set, putting Serbia just a set away from elimination. Djokovic upped his game at that point however, overcoming any injury or rust he may be carrying to win the final two sets 6-3 6-2 and force a live fifth rubber.
Called on for the third time in the tie, Nedovyesov lost in straight sets to Troicki, who shook off his poor showing on Friday to erase any doubts of a Kazakh miracle win. Serbia still has some great players, but they won’t be able to afford to play so poorly against team GB in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, you have to admire the fight and warrior’s heart of the underdog Kazakh team.
Italy d. Switzerland 5-0
On indoor clay, Italy proved too much for a lowly ranked Swiss team. Marco Chiudinelli gave it his all in the opening tie, only to lose in a long fifth set to Paolo Lorenzi, a true dirtballing warrior. Andreas Seppi then finished off Henri Laaksonen in four competitive sets to give Italy a 2-0 lead.
In the final live rubber, Seppi and Simone Bolelli dominated an exhausted Chiudinelli/Laaksonen in straight sets to win the tie. In the dead rubbers, Lorenzi beat Davis Cup débutante Antoine Bellier, and Marco Cecchinato beat Adrien Bossel, both in straight sets. Italy will host Argentina in the quarterfinals.
Argentina d. Poland 3-2 (3-1 on live rubbers)
This tie was live on Sunday, but the Poles simply lacked the talent to defeat Argentina, even with the crowd behind them. The experienced Leonardo Mayer defeated Hubert Hurkacz, and Guido Pella defeated Michal Przysiezny in straight sets on Friday to give Argentina 2-0 lead. Poland then called on their veterans Marcin Matkowski and Lukasz Kubot to keep the tie alive, and they did so, defeating Carlos Berlocq and Renzo Olivo in four sets.
Mayer then defeated Przysiezny from a set down to win the tie, with Hurkacz winning his first Davis Cup rubber over Olivo in a dead fifth rubber. Argentina will travel to Italy for their next tie.
The Caribbean paradise of Guadeloupe saw the French tricolore waved proudly as a loaded French team dominated a weakened Canadian one without dropping a set. Gael Monfils demolished Frank Dancevic, and Gilles Simon outdueled Vasek Pospisil on clay to take a 2-0 lead on Friday. Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga then defeated Pospisil and Philip Bester to win the doubles rubber and capture the tie. Gasquet beat Bester in the dead fourth rubber, and Dancevic retired in the dead fifth rubber. France will next travel to the Czech Republic with a great chance to win the Davis Cup.
An injury to Tomas Berdych resulted in this tie going to a live fifth rubber, but young gun Alexander Zverev was the weak link for team Germany at home. Philipp Kohlschreiber lead the way for Germany, winning an opening fifth set match against Lukas Rosol. Berdych then fired back with a tough five set win over Zverev, who put his heart and soul into the match. Berdych and veteran Radek Stepanek won the doubles in straight sets over Kohlschreiber and veteran Philipp Petzschner.
In the live fourth rubber, Kohlschreiber won the first two sets over Berdych, who then promptly retired with an injury. That thrust Zverev into the spotlight against Rosol, but the big hitting Czech demolished him 6-2 6-3 6-1. Zverev was never really into the match, even though it should have been more competitive. The Czech Republic will host France next.
The unretirement of Lleyton Hewitt wasn’t enough to save Australia on grass against team USA in a battle between two of tennis’ historical giants. John Isner was the hero for team USA as the big server won matches over Sam Groth in straights on Friday, and Bernard Tomic in four sets on Sunday to clinch the tie. Isner had a surprisingly great return game on grass.
Tomic beat Jack Sock in four sets on Friday, and the Bryan Brothers beat John Peers, and Aussie captain Lleyton Hewitt in the doubles tie, though it went five sets, and Hewitt played quite well for a (just) retired player. Despite the leadership of Hewitt, the Australian team had a running spat all weekend about whether young gun Nick Kyrgios was fit enough to play and should have helped his country out. A frustrated Bernard Tomic accused Kyrgios of faking an injury in the match against Isner.
With the result, team USA will host Croatia in the quarterfinals.
Croatia d. Belgium 3-2
The young Borna Coric won a live fifth rubber to send Croatia into the quarterfinals of the World Group, and end the hopes of Belgium to reach the Davis Cup final once more. Coric lost his five set contest with David Goffin on Friday, though he battled to the end from 2 sets to love down. Marin Cilic beat Kimmer Coppejans in straight sets on Friday though to even the tie at 1-1.
Ivan Dodig and Franko Skugor then got the job done for Croatia over Ruben Bemelmans and Goffin. Goffin scored a minor upset over Cilic to force a live fifth rubber. With Bemelmans injured, Coppejans was called on again, and that was when Coric won in straight sets to send Croatia through.
Action outside the World Group
Wins for Ecuador and Chile in Americas Group 1 one set them up for battles with Brazil and Colombia respectively for a spot in the World Group Playoffs. India will face Korea, and China will face Uzbekistan in the final round of Asia’s Group 1. In Europe/Africa Group 1, Romania beat Slovenia, Dominic Thiem and Austria handled Portugal, Russia beat Sweden, and Hungary slipped past Israel. Romania hosts Spain, Ukraine hosts Austria, Russia hosts the Netherlands, and Hungary hosts Slovakia for spots in the World Group playoffs.
In notable Europe/Africa group 2 ties, Bosnia’s Mirza Basic won an 18-16 fourth set tiebreak and went on to lead his nation to a win over Malek Jaziri and Tunisia. Marsel Ilhan won twice to give Turkey a win over Bulgaria in a battle of neighbors in Ankara, Turkey.
2016 Davis Cup World Group First Round Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 Davis Cup will kickoff with the first round of the World Group and a host of ties at levels below the world group as many of the top players in men’s tennis will be donning the national uniform and representing their country in an Olympic year. Here is a look at the World Group matchups.
The defending champion Brits take on a rising Japan, in a tie that Tennis Atlantic is proud to have credentialed coverage from. Andy Murray will be in action for team GB, and the decisive match is likely to take place in the 4th rubber between Murray and Kei Nishikori. Dan Evans is GB’s #2, with Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot available for doubles. Japan counters with Taro Daniel as their singles #2, and has Yoshihito Nishioka, and Yasutaka Uchiyama scheduled for doubles, though Nishioka can also play singles.
Given the indoor hard court surface, with GB hosting, they should be the favorite. Murray is 4-1 against Nishikori, and Evans likely has a slight edge on indoor hard against Daniel, who prefers clay. Team GB also has a stronger doubles team.
With world #1 Novak Djokovic participating after an eye infection forced him out of ATP Dubai, team Serbia are heavy favorites against Kazakhstan at home in Belgrade on indoor hard court. Djokovic is joined by Viktor Troicki, one of the strongest players on tour this year, with Filip Krajinovic as a reserve player, and Nenad Zimonjic as the doubles specialist.
Kazakhstan has Mikhail Kukushkin, Aleksandr Nedovyesov, and Andrey Golubev, with Dmitry Popko in reserve. None of the Kazakh players are stronger than fringe ATP regulars, and it would take a miracle, or an injury, for Serbia to lose this tie.
Indoor red clay is the surface as Italy plays host to a Swiss team that lacks a top 100 player. Andreas Seppi, Paolo Lorenzi, Simone Bolelli, and Marco Cecchinato get the call for Italy, with Lorenzi having a good year on clay, and Seppi and Bolelli ATP regulars.
Switzerland has a veteran presence in the form of Marco Chiudinelli, along with Henri Laaksonen, and Adrian Bossel. Just like in the previous tie, it would be a shock if Italy even lost a match in this tie given the mismatch between the players. If the Swiss had Federer and Wawrinka, things would be quite different.
19 year old Hubert Hurkacz will have a heavy weight on his shoulders as he makes his Davis Cup debut at home on indoor hard courts for Poland. Former top 100 veteran Michal Przysiezny, now a challenger level player, joins him, with veterans Lukasz Kubot and Marcin Matkowski set for doubles.
Argentina is disadvantaged greatly by the surface, but has a more accomplished team with Guido Pella, Leonardo Mayer, veteran Carlos Berlocq, and Renzo Olivo. Given Hurkacz has never played an ATP match, Przysiezny is playing for the first time this year, and Mayer is a decent hard court player, Argentina should win rather comfortably.
This tie is played on French soil but it’s practically on a neutral site given it’s in the Caribbean on outdoor clay. France should have an advantage if they can stay healthy and focused. Veterans Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga form their team, while Canada is missing Milos Raonic, and Daniel Nestor. Frank Dancevic is now leading off in singles, with Vasek Pospisil, and Philip Bester also scheduled to play. They also subbed in Adil Shamasdin for doubles.
Pospisil is the only ATP caliber player on the Canadian team, while the French have any combination of four solid clay court stars. This tie could well be over in three rubbers.
Indoor hard courts in Hanover are the venue as Germany are slight underdogs against the Czech Republic, in one of the most interesting ties of the week. The veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber will lead them off against big hitter Lukas Rosol, and the young gun Alexander Zverev will follow against top 10 player Tomas Berdych.
The exciting Dustin Brown, and veteran Philipp Petzschner are also available for Germany in doubles. The Czechs counter with Jiri Vesely, and Radek Stepanek, with Vesely available for singles and doubles.
Kohlschreiber leads Rosol 4-1 in h2h matches and his form recently has been strong. Berdych is 2-0 against Zverev over the last two seasons, but both matches were competitive on indoor hard courts, Zverev can’t be counted out. The doubles should prove crucial and decide the tie if Berdych wins over Kohlschreiber in the fourth rubber, but if Germany wins the doubles, Zverev is a slight favorite against Rosol in rubber #5.
Home grass courts will give Australia plenty of hope against Team USA, but they are still underdogs as Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis are both out. Bernard Tomic will be leading the way, with the big server Sam Groth joining him, John Peers as a doubles specialist, and the captain Lleyton Hewitt nominating himself as a reserve player if needed. Should Hewitt play, this will be his final Davis Cup tie most likely.
Team USA has John Isner to match Groth’s serves, Jack Sock, and the Bryan Brothers for doubles. Isner has lost three straight matches, but Groth has lost five straight, giving Isner the edge in his first match. Tomic is 0-3 against Sock in the h2h, but has been in better recent form compared to Sock. On grass, Tomic should be the favorite, and Isner is 1-0 in the h2h against Tomic.
The Bryans have an edge in doubles, and Sock also has an edge over Groth, meaning team USA should find a way to win.
Last year’s David Cup finalist have a tough defense on indoor clay against Croatia at home. David Goffin is leading them, and he has a 2-0 h2h record against his first opponent, the young Borna Coric. Marin Cilic will have a big edge over challenger level player Kimmer Coppejans in his first match though, and the veteran performer should grab a win.
After an expected 1-1 opening day, Ivan Dodig and Franko Skugor should have a big edge in doubles over Bemelmans and Arthur De Greef, both challenger level players.
Goffin and Cilic have never played before, though I give Goffin a slight edge on clay to extend the tie, and force Coric to defeat Coppejans. The young gun has proven his mettle thus far in his career though and I expect him to get the job done if needed.
Prediction: Croatia
Notable action outside of the World Group
In Europe-Africa Group 1, Marius Copil and Romania take on Blaz Rola and Slovenia on indoor hard courts. Joao Sousa and Gastao Elias are slated to face Dominic Thiem and Austria on indoor hard courts in Portugal.
Murray Brothers Give Team GB a 2-1 Lead in Davis Cup Action vs. Australia Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
With the tie between Great Britain and Australia poised at 1-1, many thought that doubles could be the deciding factor. Originally it was scheduled to be Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt vs Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot. But as expected Andy Murray was drafted in to partner his brother again the Aussies.
The Brits were the team to earn the first break point opportunities on the Hewitt serve, but they were well saved the Australian pair. Instead it would be Jamie’s serve that would be broken, as a Groth inspired Australia dealt the first blow.
The crowd rallied behind the Brits to get a break back, but they were fast running out of chances with Groth serving for the set. After a controversial call to award the point to after hawk eye ruled a Groth serve in, GB found themselves with two break back points. But a few big serves later, including a 141MPH unreturnable, Australia took the first set 6-4.
The second set was tight in the opening stages with neither team offering up an early break point. However, GB would find themselves with an opportunity in the sixth game of the set, and it would be taken as the big serve of Groth was finally broken. It would be left to Andy to serve out the set, and so he did as his brother Jamie buried an easy volley to level the score.
The Aussies would bounced back early in the second with an early break to establish a 2-0 lead. A Groth backhand was too much to handle for Andy after an excellent return by Hewitt set up the break point opportunity. The lead was whipped out though as Australia were made to rue some mistakes in the seventh game. It was back on serve at 4-3.
Soon the pressure was on the Aussie’s as GB earned break point at 4-4, but Andy missed a backhand and the chance went begging. After a missed volley from Hewitt, the Murray’s would receive a second chance at a break, and this time they would not be denied. Jamie put away the smash and all of a sudden the tide had turned in favour of Great Britain. Andy would successfully serve out the set to give Great Britain a 2-1 lead.
In the fourth, Australia would once again strike early. Jamie was broken after a half volley hit the net. The lead wouldn’t last long however as Britain were able to break back straight away. Australia would earn two opportunities to re-take the lead in the fourth set, getting to 15-40 on the Jamie serve. But both break points were saved and Great Britain held under the pressure. The older brother would continue to struggle on serve at 4-5 and the Aussies would soon find themselves with three set points to level the match. They were all saved by Great Britain who levelled the score at 5-5 taking us to the deep waters.
Instead it would be Great Britain who would make the crucial breakthrough at 5-5 to put themselves within one service game of taking a 2-1 lead in the tie. However, Hewitt’s fighting spirit came to the fore and Australia kept their hopes alive by breaking back from 30-0 down to take us to a tiebreak. It was a tense and nervy tiebreak that saw Great Britain lead 5-4 on serve, but it was Australia that would take the set after saving match point after a missed volley by the Murray’s.
The Brits opened the final set with a hold, and after a poor game from Groth which saw him miss three volleys and double fault, the brothers Murray were back ahead. It wasn’t over yet though as the Groth/Hewitt combination broke back to 15. Australia were put back under pressure immediately and faced more break points with Groth screaming ‘I can’t hold’. But the 27 year old did manage to hang on to his serve and we were even again at 3-3.
The Murray’s managed to get to 5-4 to put some scoreboard pressure on the already tight Groth serve, and it proved to be all too much for the Aussie’s who lost serve to lose the match in five sets.
Great Britain pulled through in three hours and 56 minutes to defeat Australia 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 and give themselves a vital 2-1 lead heading into the final.
The younger of the Murray brothers will now turns his attentions to the fourth singles rubber, or will he?
“I think I’ll let Dom play the singles tomorrow… see how it goes,” The world number three joked.
“The longer the match, the less time to recover and the harder to recover. Physically it’s tough but also emotionally matches like that are draining as well.
“I don’t think enough is made of that, they are very tough matches to play, lots of ups and downs, and chances for both teams, but try and recover as best as I can.”
Hewitt spoke of the up’s and downs of doubles tennis.
“You know all Davis Cup doubles are a lot of ebbs and flows in a five set match, especially on that kind of surface,” said the former world number one.
“It’s on the slower side court, so there’s gonna be ups and downs, there’s gonna be breaks of serves. You know we obviously fought off some break points early in the first set, was able to get that set.
“Second set, we couldn’t quite get into their service games as much then obviously had an early break in the third. Got a little bit unlucky actually to give the break back, where they hit some net cords and then you know obviously we just kept fighting and digging deep when they served for the match in the fourth, really close tiebreak.
“In the fifth again we were down a break, came back and then obviously got broken again. So especially Davis Cup doubles over five sets, it sometimes can only rely on one or two points.”
2015 Davis Cup Semifinals and World Group Playoffs Preview Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of semifinals take place starting Friday in the 2015 Davis Cup, along with the entire World Group Playoffs, with teams looking to move up to the world group or hang on to a coveted world group spot after an early exit in the world group main draw earlier on in the season.
Tennis Atlantic will have onsite coverage as Australia travels to Glasgow, Scotland a raucous Emirates Arena for a commonwealth battle with team GB. The British have Andy Murray once more on indoor hard courts, and presuming he’s in shape, it’s likely he’ll be able to win his pair of singles rubbers over Thanasi Kokkinakis and likely Bernard Tomic on Friday and Sunday. This tie should come down to the doubles, as Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt, the veteran rock of the Australian team, are set to do battle with either Dominic Inglot/Jamie Murray, or perhaps the Murray brothers, or Inglot/Andy Murray depending on what team GB captain Leon Smith decides.
Challenger tour level player Dan Evans was an interesting choice for this tie, and is likely to be an afterthought against Tomic/Kokkinakis in singles. With all that said, we could well be looking at Evans in a live 5th rubber, and I give Australia a slight edge in this tie with a strong doubles pairing as long as their team doesn’t implode with so many combustible personalities. Tomic, of course, has his problems with Tennis Australia for starters.
The Belgians get home court advantage and thus get to hold this tie on a favorable indoor hard court surface in Brussels. That fact alone makes them the favorite in this tie, as David Goffin and his veteran teammate Steve Darcis should be able to manage three wins in singles alone against the Argentina pairing of Federico Delbonis and Leonardo Mayer that is scheduled for the singles rubbers.
Goffin has been in good form as of late, and Delbonis is poor on hard courts, though Mayer can play solid tennis at times and may have an edge over Darcis. In doubles it’s scheduled to be Kimmer Coppejans/Ruben Bemelmans against Carlos Berlocq/Diego Schwartzman, and given the surface, the Belgians also have an advantage there. In a surprising result, Belgium should see itself in the Davis Cup final, though they aren’t a powerhouse tennis nation.
India gets home court on outdoor hard but they face a Czech team with stronger players and more experience in Davis Cup. Yuki Bhambri and his teammate Somdev Devvarman, both of whom rank outside the ATP top 100 are expected to play singles against top 100 Czechs Jiri Vesely and Lukas Rosol while the veteran pairing of Leander Paes/Rohan Bopanna should have a minor edge over Radek Stepanek/Adam Pavlasek in doubles.
Vesely should be able to win both his singles matches, but look for Bhambri to potentially rise coming off of a challenger title. He’s a talented player and could shock Rosol in the opening rubber. With that said, the Czechs have a rankings and talent edge here and I have them pulling out a win.
At home on indoor hard it would be a shock if the Swiss won by anything less than a 3-0 sweep. That is due to the fact that the fearsome tandem of Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka are playing to keep them in the World Group against a Dutch squad lacking a top 100 player. The Dutch have underachievers Thiemo De Bakker, Jesse Huta Galung, Matwe Middelkoop, and Tim Van Rijthoven on their squad and they are facing a Swiss Goliath in this one. Barring an injury or change in the Swiss lineup, they should win this with ease, and Marco Chiudinelli and Henri Laaksonen will be able to get experience in the dead rubbers.
Italy has a solid veteran team but they do have to travel to Russia for this indoor hard court battle. Fabio Fognini, coming off his first hard court wins of the season in a strong US Open showing will look to continue the momentum against Russia’s Andrey Rublev and Teymuraz Gabashvili, and if he wins those matches, the pressure will fall on either Simone Bolelli or Andreas Seppi/Paolo Lorenzi to provide the tie clinching victory.
Rublev is a gutsy young gun battler and Gabashvili is a talented shotmaker at times, but outside of the combustible Fognini, the Italian team seems to have a consistency advantage on their side. Evgeny Donskoy and Konstantin Kravchuk round out the Russian team that will need a true team effort to pull this off. Bolelli could falter, but Seppi and Fognini should be good enough to get the job done and keep Italy in the World Group.
Uzbekistan has the huge advantage of getting to face team USA on red clay at home, and they could be facing a jet lagged USA due to the sheer difference in location. This is a tough test for American tennis which could see itself exiled from the World Group once more, if Denis Istomin and Farrukh Dustov can pull off an upset.
Team USA captain Jim Courier is going with some new faces on the team this time, with Jack Sock, Steve Johnson, and Donald Young joining veteran presence Sam Querrey. A lot of pressure will ride on Sock, who is the best clay court player on this team (he won an ATP title on clay this year in Houston) but is coming off of a heat stroke at the US Open, which could factor into his fitness. Istomin is a streaky player and Dustov is a challenger level player in poor form, so most likely Dustov will lose twice, and it may come down to Johnson/Querrey doubles to decide the tie. We could be looking at a live fifth rubber, but some how, some way, a unified Team USA should survive.
Outdoors on clay team Colombia will have a chance against Kei Nishikori and Japan, but presuming Nishikori has resolved the injury that hurt him at the US Open, the team from the land of the rising sun are favorites in this tie. The veteran pairing of Santiago Giraldo and Alejandro Falla, along with doubles specialist tandem Juan Sebastian Cabal/Robert Farah are back for Colombia, while Japan has Nishikori, the young Yoshihito Nishioka, Yasutaka Uchiyama for doubles, and Taro Daniel, who is solid on clay, for singles.
The Colombians with a specialist doubles tandem should win that rubber, and pressure will fall on an out of form Giraldo to snap his slump and get past the still challenger level Daniel, who poses a threat to him. Presuming Nishikori is raring to play, look for him to beat Falla/Giraldo, and a live fifth rubber could be quite interesting in this one, especially in regards to which player, besides Nishikori, Japan will nominate for it. Cases can be made for the speedy Nishioka, or Daniel, based on how Daniel plays on Friday, but in the end I don’t feel Colombia is in good enough form to win this tie at the moment.
Germany, even on the road on hard courts in the Dominican Republic, are heavy favorites in this rubber simply because the DR has no top 200 players outside of veteran wonder Victor Estrella, who isn’t in world beating form at the moment. The German team has veterans Philipp Kohlschreiber and Benjamin Becker, with Philipp Petzschner and Dustin Brown for doubles. while the DR rounds out their team with Jose Hernandez-Fernandez, Roberto Cid, and Jose Olivares, an 18 year old.
Becker is in horrible form for this tie, and may lose his rubber, but Kohlschreiber and the German doubles tandem should be enough on their own to get the job done, as Estrella in his current form is not going to be able to do it all. I’m surprised Germany didn’t nominate Brown for singles over Becker.
Brazil gets home clay for this tie against European tennis power Croatia and if the veteran Thomaz Bellucci can step up, they may just pull off a big win over a weakened Croat team. Joining Bellucci are Joao Souza, a dirtballer, and Marcelo Melo/Bruno Soares for doubles. Croatia matches with the young gun Borna Coric, Ivan Dodig, and Franko Skugor for doubles, and Mate Delic as a second singles player.
Bellucci is in good form and should cruise past the challenger level Delic, while Coric presents a tougher test, but a winnable one all the same. Along with that, Brazil has a clear edge in doubles with their specialist pairing, and Delic should prove the weak link that sends Brazil through even though Souza is in abysmal form.
This closely matched European battle matches former Eastern Bloc nations on indoor hard court in Poland. Jerzy Janowicz, Michal Przysiezny, Lukasz Kubot and Marcin Matkowski, the latter two for doubles, make up the Polish squad, while Slovakia counters with Martin klizan, Norbert Gombos, Andrej Martin, and Igor Zelenay, a doubles specialist.
Like a couple of the other WG playoff ties, this one could go either way and the potential Janowicz vs. Klizan Sunday clash may be what swings the tie. Klizan should be able to beat challenger level Przysiezny, and Gombos is a close match for him, while Janowicz is the wild card depending on his streaky form. The Polish team likely has an edge in doubles, so if Janowicz plays well, Poland should win, if he fails however, the advantage shifts to Slovakia. Given home court advantage, I’m favoring Poland by a hair in this one.
Prediction: Poland
Action Outside of the World Group
Relatively few notable matches will take place outside of the World Group semis and playoffs this weekend, but Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have gotten the Spanish Armada back together again and should steamroll a weak Danish team in Denmark to hold onto group 1 status. Likewise Ricardas Berankis and Lithuania are sure to have an edge at home against a Ukrainian team that lacks their best two players. Joao Sousa and Portugal face Belarus, and Gonzalo Lama and Chile face Venezuela.
Tennis Atlantic is live in Glasgow, Scotland for the Davis Cup semi-final between Great Britain and Australia over the weekend of the 18th-20th of September. The Brits are searching for their first Davis Cup success for nearly 80 years when they take on the Aussies at the Emirates Arena this weekend. Confidence is high around the UK that this could be the year Team GB breaks into the final, and with recent victories over France and USA there is little reason to doubt them.
Leon Smith’s team is spearheaded by world number three Andy Murray, whose heroics at Queens in July earned GB a 3-1 victory over France. The Scot played all three days despite physical struggles, and earned key victories over Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon in the single rubbers.
Lleyton Hewitt claimed that all the pressure will be on Andy this weekend as the clear number one British player, but Murray insists that it is not all on him and it will come down to the entire team. “I would say [The Pressure] is all on me.” The 28 year old said. “We got into this position by everyone on the team playing their part, and there is pressure on everybody.
Murray will be joined by his brother Jamie Murray, Dominic Inglot, and Dan Evans, as they try replicate the success that dates back to the days of Fred Perry. Both Kyle Edmund, who had an ankle injury concern earlier in the week, and James Ward are alternates for Team GB but were not included in the formal nominations. “I went for a scan last night” The British number three Edmund said. “And when it came back it showed nothing, just a little bit of a bump, that’s it.” Despite the results, Smith went for a player nobody expected to be drafted in. Dan Evans was chosen over Ward and Edmund as the second singles player.
“It wasn’t an easy one but having thought about it a lot, the fact that Dan has played an awful lot of tennis this summer, won a lot of matches, I said the other day it’s obvious at Futures level that winning really helps, and he comes with a lot of confidence.” The GB captain said. “Obviously Kyle, although he’s almost fit, he still had a fall the other day and I think at this stage it was wasn’t worth risking anything happening over the weekend especially when you go in with the make-up of two singles players and two doubles players, if anything had happened with Kyle Friday we would have been up against it. “For James, the tie came maybe the wrong time for him after a summer that’s been quite tough results wise, but he’s played a big, big part in the team to date and I’m sure he’ll play a big part in the future as well, but I felt that Dan was in the best place to win for the weekend.”
Australia are bidding for their first title in 12 years, and one man remains from that victories team back in 2003. Hewitt is making his final appearance in the Davis Cup this year, and boy he would love to go out on a bang. The former two time grand slam champion is joined by Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth and Thanasi Kokkanakis as they look to combine youth and experience to take down the Brits. “Yeah it obviously means a lot [to play his last Davis Cup]” Hewitt said. “It is my last year playing, and it is a great opportunity. “With my experience and the other boys’ youth, I think we have really mixed it up well this year” “I think as a team we have gotten stronger as the year has gone on, which is a really good sign. We are here to put our best foot forward and we won’t be leaving anything in the locker room that’s for sure.”
The noticeable omission is their number two player, Nick Kyrgios. The 20 year old ‘bad boy’ of tennis recently was surrounded in controversy after comments made about Stan Wawrinka’s girlfriend. The Aussie is serving a one month suspension from the ATP, but he still eligible to play Davis Cup, so he was just left out of the squad. “After Nick played Andy at the US Open we sat down two days later. Nick has had a really full year in more ways than one, so we just kind of felt mutually that this was the best fit for him and the team.” Said Aussie captain, Wally Masur.
The Draw
The draw to see who will play who was made on Thursday, and here is how it came out.
The British number one, Murray, will face Aussie youngster, Kokkanakis in the first rubber tomorrow afternoon. The pair know each other well due to practicing a lot together and playing doubles in Miami. However this is their first competitive meeting. “Yeah it will be a tough match obviously.” Murray said of the Kokkanakis challenge “I practiced with him a lot and have spent a lot of time watching him as well, and speaking to him. So I know for one of the younger guys, I know his game better than most. “You know we have practiced together at the French Open and the US Open, we obviously played doubles together as well in Miami, so I know his game well and obviously it will be a tough match. But at the same time it’s a tough match-up for him as well, you know the atmosphere is going to be challenging for them as well, and that’s something that will hopefully give us a big boost.
The Aussie meanwhile is relishing the opportunity to play one of the world’s best players on this big of a stage. “Yeah should be a great challenge up ahead, great player and to play him in his home ground in Glasgow will be a huge opportunity for me. I like the courts here, boys have been training really well, and it’s going to be a huge honour to play. Thank you guys for picking me again, and to play first up, I’ll be ready to go.” Kokkanakis said.
The only time these two met was two years ago at the US Open when Evans shocked Tomic with a four sets win. The Australian number one will now look to avenge that loss in the second rubber tomorrow evening. “Honestly? I was up 6-1 3-0 and couldn’t make a ball after that, and that’s all I remember.” Tomic said in recollection of that match in New York. “It was a very windy day, it was tough, he was very confident at the moment and he beat Nishikori prior to me. So he was playing well, I had a chance, I was comfortable I was cruising, obviously he started playing more free, and he beat me so it’s not an easy match, it’s very tough for me.”
“My game matches up pretty well to him, and that’s what I’ve got to try and do on Friday, play that way again.” Evans said. “Everyone, they do remember when you’ve played someone before, like I remember when I’ve lost to someone before – that’s always in someone’s head as well.” “I think coming back to Scotland is nice, I mean the atmosphere last time when I watched it on television sounded very good but it was obviously better in the stadium so yeah, I’m looking forward to it.”
You can catch all the Davis Cup action on Tennis Atlantic.
2015 US Open Week 1 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final slam of the season is also the final ATP level stop in the United States for 2015. All of the top names are competing for glory under the New York lights,and here is a preview of what should be two high quality of hard court tennis.
US Open
Grand Slam
New York City, NY, USA
August 31-September 13, 2015
Prize Money: $33,017,800
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Kei Nishikori (4)
5: Stan Wawrinka (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: David Ferrer (7)
8: Rafael Nadal (8)
The entire ATP top 50 will take part in the US Open this season with the lone exception of Juan Monaco as this is the strongest tournament field you can get.
Seppi, an established veteran all-courter, started the season on hard courts on fire, but has cooled off since and finished his US Open series tournaments with a record of 1-2. He could be on upset alert against the talented young gun qualifier Paul who is 40-17 below the main tour level this season at just 18. Though he lacks an ATP or Grand Slam main draw win, and is making his professional slam debut, he was solid in qualifying and has a tenacious and well-rounded game that will give him a punchers chance in this one. The crowd should be on his side, and though I see Seppi winning this, Paul could arrive into the headlines sooner than expected and score his first marquee win.
(23)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (WC)Pierre-Hugues Herbert
The top 30 RBA has met the Frenchman Herbert just once in his career, but the big server with a crisp volley game pushed him to three sets in that match, and could well give him a headache once more in the opening round of the US Open. RBA has had a pedestrian season overall and went just 2-2 on summer hard courts, while Herbert comes off his first ever ATP final in Winston-Salem. Herbert has always had singles talent, but has lacked consistency and has performed better in doubles. PHH is a streaky player and RBA still likely wins this, but keep an eye on a potential upset if Herbert’s good form continues in Flushing.
(8)Rafael Nadal vs. Borna Coric
Rafael Nadal has never lost in the first round of the US Open in his career, and he’s a two time champion, however that streak could be snapped this year at the hands of talented and confident young gun Borna Coric. Coric beat an injured Nadal in Basel at the end of last season for one of the biggest wins of his career, so he should already have belief, and his complete all-court game will allow him to pressure Rafa and keep things close most likely. Nadal has had one of his poorest seasons in recent memory, and has not had a good time of it on hard courts this year as he went just 3-2 in the US Open series. Nadal is not the same player that he once was, but he’s still a beast in the fitness and mental toughness departments, and with that in mind he is still likely to survive the Coric challenge. We could be looking at five sets, but in best of five Nadal tends to rise the occasion as we saw in the Australian Open early in the year.
(4)Kei Nisikori vs. Benoit Paire
Nishikori was a finalist last year at the US Open, and has a 2-0 h2h over the streaky Paire, so on paper he shouldn’t have too much trouble. With that said Paire with his elite backhand has enough of a game to threaten top 10 players if he’s focused and shows passion, and Nishikori may still be dealing with a toe injury sustained this summer. The Washington champion also reached the semis in Montreal, but came down with an injury in that match, and hasn’t played since, so it’s hard to tell how Nishikori’s form and condition will be. Paire is finally getting himself back to an ATP level and has had a good season overall, however he once more demonstrated inconsistency in Winston-Salem, and a healthy Nishikori should be able to direct enough balls to his forehand side to doom his chances.
Another match with some upset potential, the two veterans have split h2h meetings on hard courts, and Berrer, fueled by the desire to compete in his final season, has had the best year of his career, while Robredo has struggled to a 5-5 record on hard courts this year. Berrer with his throwback serve and volley game was excellent in qualifying and also reached the semifinals in Bogota this summer while Robredo went 3-2 on summer hard courts. The Spaniard has an excellent record at the US Open, but I feel his level has dropped this season with age perhaps finally catching up to him, and I see Berrer, who beat Rafael Nadal at the start of the year in Doha, scoring another memorable win over a Spaniard and reaching round 2 to add more memories to an already thrilling final season.
(22)Viktor Troicki vs. (WC)Frances Tiafoe
Wild card Frances Tiafoe, making his US Open main draw debut at 17, couldn’t have asked for a better round 1 draw given his status as the seeded Serbian Troicki has lost six straight singles matches, and hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon. Troicki has had a fine season overall, but he’s in a tailspin at the moment, perhaps hurt, or simply lacking confidence, and though he has more experience than Tiafoe, the young American is a powerful talent with enough of a game to score his first Grand Slam main draw win in this one. He got experience playing the French Open this summer and just won his first main draw ATP match in Winston-Salem, so I see the teenager keeping the good vibes and momentum flowing and making headlines with a seeded upset.
This matchup will have a lot of viewers due to the star status of both of these players. Murray’s quest for a second US Open title begins against the controversial Kyrgios, who has gotten in more trouble for his behavior and his mouth, than headlines he’s made for his actual tennis this summer. NK has had a solid season but his immaturity has shown through at times. He lives for a big stage and tends to rise up in slams, though his form hasn’t been great recently. With that said Murray has beaten him twice this year in slams and is 3-0 in the overall h2h. The Scot is extremely solid from the baseline and is able to force Kyrgios errors. Murray is simply more focused and serious with his tennis right now. I really don’t see Murray slipping up here, and the Montreal champion may not even drop a set in this highly anticipated match.
(12)Richard Gasquet vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Gasquet just routined Kokkinakis in Cincy, but don’t sleep on the young Aussie in a best of five big time situation. Gasquet reached the quarterfinals in Cincy and has had both good and bad spurts of play this season, all throughout remaining one of the most aesthetically pleasing and graceful players to watch on tour. Kokkinakis has a bigger game and went 4-3 this summer, like Gasquet showing good and bad patches of play. This match will come down to which version of these players shows up, and a more consistent and experienced Gasquet should find a way to win over a dangerous round 1 opponent.
(29)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (Q)Alexander Zverev
A battle of Germans, the veteran Kohlschreiber scored a win over Zverev on clay this year, and over the years has demonstrated himself to be a solid hard court player. However, Zverev is a rising young talent who is building up his hard court game, and while he is on the rise, Kohlschreiber is seemingly on the decline this season. Peppo had just one warm up match on hard courts this summer, a match he lost, while the qualifier Zverev is overall 8-2 on hard courts this summer with a top 20 win over Kevin Anderson en route to the Washington quarterfinals. On paper Kohlschreiber is a favorite, but I have Zverev notching an upset against his countryman and making some waves.
World #1 Novak Djokovic has just one US Open title and was stunned in the semifinals last season, but that doesn’t stop him from being the favorite for the title this year. The Serbian superstar has about as good of a draw as he could hope for in the first week, as he will no doubt dominate journeyman dirtballer Joao Souza in round 1, and likely brush aside big server Vasek Pospisil in round 2, presuming Vasek takes care of business against dirtballer Andreas Haider-Maurer in his round 1 match. Djokovic is 3-0 against Pospisil and has never lost a set to him, so even though Vasek has built his game back up, he’s unlikely to pose a threat.
In the third round Djokovic should be able to continue his streak of sets won over either Seppi/Paul or Teymuraz Gabashvili/Pablo Andujar. Gabashvili, a journeyman with weapons, shocked Andy Murray for the win of his career in Washington, and his good form should put him past Andujar, and likely Seppi, but lighting shouldn’t strike twice against Novak who likely reaches week 2 entirely unscathed as long as his elbow issue has sorted itself out. Djokovic reached both Masters finals this summer, and is looking to make it 3/4 slams won this year after claiming the Australian and Wimbledon titles.
14 seed David Goffin has an excellent chance at reaching week 2, the undersized ball striker has put together a solid top 20 season and went 4-2 on hard courts this summer. He’ll have a potentially challenging round 1 match against Simone Bolelli, a big hitter than himself, but his superior form and consistency should see him through to face either Ricardas Berankis or Joao Sousa, both of whom are baseline ball strikers like Goffin. Berankis and Sousa have both shown inconsistency this summer, while the undersized Berankis, a quarterfinalist in Atlanta and Washington, should have more upside, and reach round 2 before falling to Goffin in a battle of two of the smallest players on tour.
In round 3 Goffin, or another player if an upset occurs, should face either the RBA/PHH winner, or Jerzy Janowicz, presuming the big serving Pole can live up to his abilities and see off surprise Winston-Salem quarterfinalist Pablo Carreno Busta, who usually much prefers clay. Janowicz beat RBA this year in Miami, and his 3-3 record this summer should be good enough to see him through to the third round. Janowicz-Goffin is a style contrast, but Goffin is the better player a this point in their careers and has a pair of h2h wins in his back pocket this season, thus the first section should be Djokovic vs. Goffin to start week 2.
Presuming Nadal gets past Coric he should win his next two matches, likely to be against qualifier Elias Ymer, another young gun, and American Steve Johnson with relative ease. Ymer opens with dirtballer Diego Schwartzman, but doesn’t have a big enough game yet to challenge Rafa. Johnson opens with Fabio Fognini, who hasn’t won a hard court match this year, and then will face the Pablo Cuevas/Dudi Sela winner. Sela recently won a hard court challenger and likely dispatches the dirtballer Cuevas in a veteran battle, but Johnson, a semifinalist in both Washington and Winston-Salem this summer, is in excellent form and could even take a set or more off of Nadal. If Coric gets through he could reach the second week, though Johnson will have a great chance to do the same.
Milos Raonic hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon, and he’s been a rusty out of form disaster this summer (0-2), that said this losses came to big servers who took the upper hand when his return game was exposed, and his serve dropped in quality. His round 1 opponent Tim Smyczek is on a seven match losing streak and a horrible matchup disadvantage, so Raonic should build confidence with a round 1 win and then defeat the Fernando Verdasco/Tommy Haas winner, because both veterans are in poor form. Haas hasn’t been the same player since returning from injury, and Verdasco is struggling but at least of ATP caliber. Raonic is 3-0 on hard courts over Verdasco should reach the third round by virtue of his weak draw.
#18 seed Feliciano Lopez will get a rematch against qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili in his first match, Niko has had a breakthrough season and upset Lopez at Wimbledon this year on the Spaniard’s best surface. With that said, the Cincinnati quarterfinalist and veteran lefty likely finds a way to win and then sends Mardy Fish into retirement in round 2. Fish is playing his final professional matches at the US Open after a summer farewell tour, and the former top 10 American gave Andy Murray a test in Cincinnati after a round 1 win. Even semi-retired his form and talent should be enough to best Marco Cecchinato who is 0-7 in his career in tour level main draw matches. The Italian much prefers clay and Fish should outskill him presuming his body holds up. Lopez with his slice serve should be too much for Mardy if focused however.
Lopez just beat Raonic in Cincinnati, and though it’s hard to predict and likely a close match, I see the veteran doing so once more and bouncing Raonic out earlier than expected. The Canadian #1 simply hasn’t been the same player since foot surgery during the clay court season, and that direct h2h result demonstrates Lopez has an edge right now, their Australian Open meeting this year was also closely contested.
Nishikori’s quarter:
As long as Nishikori is in ok shape and gets past Paire, he should have little trouble against Marsel Ilhan/Radek Stepanek as the veteran Stepanek hasn’t been able to reach a top level since returning from injury. A third round match with the talented but inconsistent Alexandr Dolgopolov could prove trouble however. Dolgo, a semifinalist in Cincy, is a top 20 player when on his game, and will have to deal with Sam Groth and his big serve in the opening round, though he has never lost to Groth (2-0 h2h). I also see him as the favorite over Berrer/Robredo, and I’m going to go out on a limb and pick him over Kei given present physical condition. The reliable and steady Nishikori is 3-0 in the h2h, but I just see Kei disappointing with the pressure on him here. Dolgopolov is one the biggest dark horses in the draw and could catch fire, or bomb out in the opening round. Dolgopolov beat Robredo earlier this year in Miami.
The draw looks open for #19 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to impress. The Frenchman’s first two opponents, the retiring Jarkko Nieminen, and Lukas Lacko/Marcel Granollers are both in poor form, having not played in recent weeks, and the Montreal quarterfinalist should move past Nieminen and Granollers into the third round. There he should meet his fellow highlight reel countryman Gael Monfils. Monfils, who went just 2-2 this summer on hard courts, faces journeyman qualifier Illya Marchenko round 1 and then most likely John Millman, who faces struggling veteran Sergiy Stahovsky in his first match. Millman has been in excellent form on the challenger tour this season and recently, and he’s a quality hard court player, so Monfils could be exposed, but more than likely he conjures up enough talent and focus to reach round 3 before falling to Tsonga, who is in better form on hard courts at the moment.
With Nishikori, Dolgopolov, Monfils, and Tsonga in this section, expect a ton of highlights to come out of it. With that said, Monfils is just 2-5 against Tsonga, though he earned the win in Miami this year.
#7 seed David Ferrer returns to tour from an elbow injury and the 33 year old grinder should see off Radu Albot, who doesn’t have a tour level main draw win this season, though he’s been good at the challenger tour level. Presuming Ferrer is healthy he’s a favorite to reach the fourth round with wins over Filip Krajinovic/qualifier Alejandro Gonzalez in round 2, and likely Jeremy Chardy in round 3. Montreal semifinalist Chardy faces NCAA champ Ryan Shane in round 1, Shane got the wild card but hasn’t done much in pro tennis to suggest he can beat a veteran like Chardy. Chardy will also be the fave against a streaky Martin Klizan. Klizan opens with funky Florian Mayer, a struggling veteran who prefers clay, in the opening round, and though he could beat Chardy, I don’t see Klizan’s form as being a benefit to him. Ferrer is 7-1 in his career against Chardy.
Defending champion Marin Cilic is unlikely to drop a set in the opening round against dirtballing qualifier Guido Pella, and in round 2 against either French young gun Lucas Pouille or qualifier Evgeny Donskoy. Pouille is a talent but prefers clay and Donskoy will have a chance at an upset, however the Washington semifinalist Cilic should have a big enough game to get to round 3. Grigor Dimitrov is a step up in caliber however, and should await the Croatian #1 at that stage. Dimitrov faces journeyman qualifier Matt Ebden in round 1 followed by a likely match with Winston-Salem quaterfinalist Rendy Lu, presuming Lu beats Mikhail Kukushkin round 1. Dimitrov has had a poor season, and he could even be shocked by Lu, with that said, Cilic seems superior to Dimitrov right now in terms of form, and is likely to be more focused, as it has been a wasted season for Dimitrov, who failed to impress this summer. Cilic also has a 1-0 h2h edge.
Presuming Murray gets past Kyrgios he’s unlikely to drop a set into the fourth round. His second round opponent will be either a struggling Adrian Mannarino or in form journeyman qualifier Konstantin Kravchuk, and then #30 seed Thomaz Bellucci is his odds on third round opponent. Bellucci faces slumping James Ward round 1 and then a qualifier, either Paul-Henri Mathieu, a veteran, or Yoshihito Nishioka, a young gun. It’s possible either Mathieu or the speed demon Nishioka could slip into the third round, but the Winston-Salem quarterfinalist Bellucci is an experienced and steady big hitter. Murray, who rapidly improved in form after a shocking early exit in Washington also has a relatively positive early draw and should excel into week 2.
Winston-Salem champ Kevin Anderson is likely to be tested against confident and talented qualifier Andrey Rublev, another of the teenage young guns dotting the draw, Anderson served up to his best over the past week though and should prove too much for Rublev and likely veteran Santiago Giraldo, presuming Giraldo beats American Austin Krajicek. Neither Giraldo or Krajicek are up to the level needed to best Anderson right now, and the South African has snapped a slump, and should reach the fourth round with a solid showing against Dominic Thiem, the struggling #20 seed. Thiem has been poor this summer, but opens with Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a clay court veteran who shows up on hard courts to cash a check, and I also see him finding his way past Denis Istomin, after Istomin beats a struggling Benjamin Becker. Neither Istomin nor Becker are playing well at the moment and Becker has lost four straight. Form and a 2-0 h2h favors Anderson over Thiem to reach the round of 16.
#5 Stan Wawrinka should meet one of the top Americans, Jack Sock, in the third round. Wawrinka, a Cincinnati quarterfinalist, isn’t in the best of form at the moment but he’s known to find himself at the Grand Slam level and should have little trouble against Albert Ramos in round 1, as Ramos prefers clay. In round 2 I don’t expect young gun Hyeon Chung, or James Duckworth, to be able to deal with Wawrinka’s backhand power and with that in mind it should be Wawrinka over Ramos and Chung without dropping a set. Big serving Atlanta semifinalist Gilles Muller isn’t in the best of form, and though the serve and volleying vet should get past challenger level player Ruben Bemelmans in round 1, I see Sock beating him on home soil after he beats Victor Estrella in round 1. The Washington quarterfinalist Sock has had a breakthrough season, but Wawrinka, presuming he can sort out his form should prove to be too much. Wawrinka has been vulnerable in slams, but I don’t see him losing early, unless Muller starts serving lights out and notches a pair of upsets.
#11 Gilles Simon is in a weak section, opening with a struggling Donald Young who he leads the h2h 5-0 with. Simon is a loser of three straight matches and in poor form, and Young upset Tomas Berdych in Montreal, but he’s lost momentum since and Simon should find a steady path given this is a slam. Many people would look to Ernests Gulbis as a potential dark horse in round 2, but Gulbis has suffered two straight bad losses after pushing Novak Djokovic to three sets in the Montreal quarterfinals, and still hasn’t escaped from his horrible season overall. The Latvian hitter has talent, but could well lose to the in-form Aljaz Bedene in round 1, and I have him losing to Simon in round 2. The h2h is 1-1 and Simon is more trustworthy than Gulbis this season. The winner of Tiafoe/Troicki should reach the third round, as neither Rajeev Ram, a veteran serve and volleyer, nor Ryan Harrison are in good form, and I have Tiafoe beat Troicki, and Harrison, just as he did in Winston-Salem, to reach the third round before falling to Simon.
Federer’s quarter:
The five-time US Open champion held off Andy Murray and secured the #2 ranking with a victory in Cincinnati, prepared and in-form Roger Federer should dominate his opponents and cruise into the second week. Leonardo Mayer, his first round opponent, pushed Federer to the brink last fall in Shanghai, falling in three sets, but Mayer is 2-3 this Summer and Federer is in much better form. Marcos Baghdatis, a finalist in Atlanta, also has a h2h win over Federer, but Fed leads the overall h2h 7-1 and both Baghdatis and his round 1 opponent Steve Darcis have recently been injured. Hopefully Federer vs. Baghdatis in round 2 produces some quality tennis. Federer could well face Zverev in round 3, if the youngster beats Kohlschreiber an either Lukas Rosol/Jared Donaldson in round 2. Donaldson has a winnable round 1 match and he’s had success this summer as a young gun American teen, I see Rosol winning in round 1, but an upset isn’t out of the question, and I have Zverev beating Rosol before falling to Federer.
American #1 John Isner had a successful Summer that saw capture the title in Atlanta, reach a final in Washington, and the quarterfinals in Montreal. Now rested, the big server should serve his way past Winston-Salem semifinalist Malek Jaziri,and either J.P. Smith or Mikhail Youzhny. The qualifier Smith is in good form and should reach round 2 but Isner has too much game for either of his first two opponents. In round 3 he’s likely to have a tiebreak fest against Ivo Karlovic. Dr. Ivo should see himself past Federico Delbonis and Jiri Vesely in his first two matches, presuming Vesely dispatches veteran clay courter Paolo Lorenzi. Karlovic leads the h2h 3-2 with Isner but at the US Open I give an in-form Isner the edge.
#6 Tomas Berdych has cooled off from his hot start in the spring but the Cincinnati quarterfinalist should hammer past USTA wild card Bjorn Fratangelo, who has had a solid run in challengers but has yet to translate that to the main tour level and is simply at several levels below top 10 players like Berdych. I also see Berdych powering past Denis Kudla, presuming Kudla beats veteran qualifier Jurgen Melzer in round 1. Kudla has had a career year this season and reached the semifinals in Atlanta, but Berdych should have too much power for him presuming his consistency doesn’t fail. Berdych has little chance against the big four right now, but he’s solid enough to make the second week and beat Kudla at the 2013 US Open.
American Sam Querrey has an excellent shot at reaching the third round and posting a positive result on home soil. He’ll open with veteran serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut and then face the winner of Janko Tipsarevic/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Both veterans have been in poor form this Summer as they try to recover from injuries, and Querrey is the favorite to reach the third round, but fall to Berdych at that stage.
Gasquet/Kokkinakis, likely Gasquet, should get past Dustin Brown/Robin Haase in round 2, neither player is in good form though the highlight worthy Brown has more upside if he catches fire. Gasquet is another player with a favorable draw that should see him into the second week, #24 seed and Bogota champion Bernard Tomic is likely to be his toughest opponent in that path. Tomic opens with undersized baseliner Damir Dzumhur, a 23 year old Bosnian in poor form, and then should move past the retiring Lleyton Hewitt, who is playing his final US Open. Tomic is inconsistent, but superior to either his veteran countryman Hewitt, or Aleksandr Nedovyesov, Hewitt’s round 1 opponent. The 2001 US Open champion will be sorely missed after he plays his final match. Gasquet is 5-1 against Tomic in the h2h and in better form.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Borna Coric, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gilles Muller, Thanasi Kokkinakis
If the talented Coric can beat Rafa twice in two years, he’ll have a path that that could see him reach the second week, and possibly as far as the quarterfinals. It’s a tough ask for a young player, but Coric is quite confident in himself and has the varied power game that can produce results. He beat Andy Murray this year as well.
I have the streaky Dolgopolov reaching the fourth round, and he could also go as far as the quarters, he’s not seeded but he has the talent to be, and if Nishikori slips up he should take advantage. The Ukrainian speedster is a deceptive shotmaker and demonstrated his peak abilities when he reached the Cincy semis and took a set off of Novak Djokovic. Like Coric, he’s proven the ability to challenge the game’s best.
Muller would need to get past Sock, but the big server has a reliable game an his crisp volleys could frustrate Wawrinka and result in an upset. I don’t see it happening personally but the veteran is known to perform well in Grand Slams.
The bottom section has a relative dearth of dark horses, and Kokkinakis form doesn’t suggest that he’ll get past Gasquet in the first round but he’s not lacking in ability, and if he shocks Gasquet and gets past Tomic he’ll be in the second week.
Week 1 Predictions (round of 16 matchups)
Djokovic d. Goffin
Goffin gave it his all and nearly upset Djokovic in Cincinnati but failing to do there, I don’t see it happening in best of five sets barring some type of injury. Djokovic is simply a superior ball striker and has far more weapons.
Nadal d. Lopez
Lopez has won his last two meetings against Rafa, including a couple of weeks ago in Cincy, but that match was quite close, and I don’t trust Lopez in the mental department in best of five sets against his fellow Spanish lefty. Lopez could win this but I trust Nadal to find a way to reach the quarters given this is a Grand Slam.
Dolgopolov d. Tsonga
Dolgo is 2-0 on outdoor hard against Tsonga, and with the Frenchman’s recent form in question I see Dolgopolov peaking and reaching the quarterfinals.
Cilic d. Ferrer
Ferrer has a h2h edge but the elbow injury makes me go with Cilic, especially at the US Open. A healthy Ferrer probably beats Cilic, but I’m not sure he’ll be quite up to form right now.
Wawrinka dominated Simon this year on clay, and given Simon’s poor recent form, if Stan pulls his game together he’s a heavy favorite to reach the quarterfinals.
Murray d. Anderson
Murray has a pair of h2h wins over Anderson this year and dominates the h2h overall, given his current form and style of play, one of the best returners in the game should beat one of the best servers.
Berdych d. Gasquet
Berdych has won his last three matches against Gasquet, including two wins this season. Gasquet may well be in better form, but I have to go with the consistent Berdych to reach the quarters.
Federer d. Isner
The world #2 is 3-0 on hard courts against Isner, and though an in-form Isner may challenge Federer and push him to tiebreaks, with the way Federer has played this summer you have to make him the favorite at this stage.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Nadal
Cilic d. Dolgopolov
Murray d. Wawrinka
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic is simply a better player than Rafa right now, especially on a hard court, and the same goes for Federer as he always dominates Berdych these days, with both of the top seeds appearing favorites for the semifinals.
Murray leads the h2h with Wawrinka by a close 8-6 and Wawrinka has won the last two meetings, including at the 2013 US Open. Wawrinka could well end Murray’s quest at a second US Open, and a first Grand Slam title this season but Andy is in some of the best form of his career and I see him reaching the semis.
Regardless of who he faces in the quarters, Ferrer’s elbow injury should help Cilic defend a large amount of his points from last season, and I see him getting past Dolgopolov, Tsonga, or Monfils.
Semis: Djokovic d. Cilic
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic shouldn’t be stopped in his quest for the final, and he consistently defeats Cilic. Murray has lost his last five meetings against Federer, including two this season and a match in Cincy, but they constantly play close and competitive tennis, and in best of five, a fit and fresh Murray at the US Open should pull off a minor upset in the battle for world #2.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Djokovic is the worlds best player in hard court tennis at the moment, and though he fell to Murray in a competitive Montreal final, he’s consistently been able to outwork and disarm the UK #1 when they meet at Grand Slams. Djokovic isn’t a lock for the title, but he’s a strong favorite.
