Your link to the WTA Legends Cruise (Photo: WTA, Getty)
The @WTACruise Was a Ruse. Thank God Fans Shunned It. WTA Legends Cruise Offered So Little for So Much
I’ve taken a few cruises in my life and I enjoyed them, but I have so many friends who think a Caribbean cruise is somehow a lower middle class way to travel. They bemoan the institutional-level food. They have nightmares of obese, hirsute travel companions who are too scared to even travel to Europe. My elitist East Coast friends are wrong and they need to get over it. And they would have been able to indulge their expensive tastes if the WTA’s outrageously-overpriced Legends Cruise had ever set sail.
Royal Carribbean’s Enchantment of the Seas may have looked like a pension-plan booster for WTA employees when it planned to disembark from Miami this November with four VIPS on board–Chris Evert, Lindsay Davenport, Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario and Jen Capriati. Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Shelby Rogers and Lucie Safarova were also scheduled on the the four night, five day adventure with exotic ports of call like Key West, Nassau and Royal Caribbean’s private isle, Coco Cay.
First, let’s talk about cruise hierarchy. This was a short cruise to relatively lame destinations. Some cruises take you to Aruba, Cayman, and Guadeloupe. The four night quick jaunt to the Bahamas and Key West was a cruise-lite. And Coco Cay is a commercialized little place where all the souvenirs and food on the island are provided by Royal Caribbean. The only locals you’d meet there are independent contractors of the cruise line who come to peddle their wares for you. Luckily for those independent contractors, there’s no competition amongst them, so that would’ve meant higher prices for you and no authentic local flavor. A complete cultural waste of a day in the Caribbean in my opinion. Yes, I’ve been there.
Because it’s a weak itinerary, you can score some great deals on a cruise like the WTA Legends junket if you still want to cruise. If you can wait a month, you can book the same luxury stateroom for 40% of the price of the WTA Legends Cruise. Stateroom 7136 on the Enchantment of the Seas, for example, is listed at $1838.80 for a family of three (mine) for a December voyage on Royal Caribbean’s website. It was $4,469.00 for November’s Legends Cruise. That’s would’ve been $2,630.00 more for the same stateroom just to hang out with Chrissy and Bethanie all week…or not.
WTA Legends Cruise Whopper of a Bill
Royal Caribbean Cruise December 2017. Same Boat, Same Stateroom, 2 1/2 times cheaper
For the bloated price of your cruise ticket, you would have been treated to an opening night show. All cruises have their little opening night show and they’re usually terrible. Throw in Chris Evert on the stage and this could have been an epic for the ages. So that would have been something.
You could’ve even watched the players play a little beach tennis on Corporate Cay, I mean, Coco Cay.
There would have been a Q&A session with the players and some kid’s quick play courts on deck. Wow.
Then there was the regular cruise ship itinerary repackaged to sound tennis-y.
A “WTA Fans Got Talent Show?” Oh, hell yeah!
Following that would have been a cocktail party, a “disco” party and the obligatory cruise ship belly-flop contest. If I thought the players would actually participate in the belly-flop contest, that would be impressive, but I highly doubt that they would.
So there must have been some other major extras, right? Right, but those extras cost majorly extra.
For example, you could hit with a pro, but no one currently inside the top 40, with up to 75 of your closest cruise-mates for two hours…for $299.00 per person.
You could have had dinner with your choice of Shelby, Jen, Arantxa, Lucie or Bethanie with five other guests who werer willing to shell out $399.00 per person to eat the food you already paid for with your cruise ticket.
But there is one thing that those inflated cruise prices wouldn’t get you: A freaking autograph. This is the part where I became incensed enough to take the time to write this post, and I believe that’s what killed this cruise.The WTA Legends Cruise had an “Autograph Policy.”
You were going to pay extra for this, so listen up.
If you wanted an autograph with one of the players, you’d have to buy a pass for $249.00 per person. That would have gotten you into an All-Access autograph session where you could procure ONE autograph of each player and they wouldn’t even let you pose for a photo. Don’t even think about trying to score one like you’ve been accustomed to at every tournament in the world, like asking for one for free.
The WTA was going to be watchin’ you, man.
Here’s the Cruise’s “Autograph Policy”:
“Outside of the structured autograph session, there will be no autographs given by players for the duration of the cruise. This will allow you to enjoy conversation, casual interaction, playful competition and photo opportunities with the players knowing that autographs have a time and a place.
All players will adhere to this policy, so we ask that you refrain from asking for autographs outside of the set autograph sessions.”
Yes, autographs have a time and place, like never in the middle of a match. This, my friends, was simply fan financial abuse.
Short advice would have been to skip this boondoggle of a WTA money-maker. The cruise was a ruse. Save yo’ money, honey—and you did by not booking a stateroom. You could have booked a cruise on the same ship, taken the $2,630.00 you saved and went to any tournament in the United States with that money and gotten all of the autographs you wanted. Hell, now you can even watch current players inside the top 40 competing in meaningful matches, including men!
Chris Evert is always running around the grounds of a tournament covered by ESPN, and she’s always happy to give autographs when not shackled by the handcuffs of the now-defunct WTA Legends Cruise’s protection racket.
Roger Federer Completes 2017 Sunshine Double with Title in Miami Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Roger Federer completed the Sunshine double, improving to #4 in the world and continuing his dominance in 2017 with a 6-3 6-4 victory, his third straight, over Rafael Nadal in the Miami Open final. Federer, now 35, has turned back the clock and is the ATP’s best player right now, with few signs that any other player on tour can stop him at the moment. Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych both came close, pushing the Swiss maestro to a third set tiebreak, and prior to that Roberto Bautista Agut lost two respectable tiebreaks. All of that said, in the end Federer mixed skill and experience to pull ahead and secure a twelve match winning streak that is still ongoing heading into the clay court season. Federer has finished the first quarter of the year with a 19-1 record and three titles. He also claimed early wins against Juan Martin Del Potro and Frances Tiafoe in Miami.
Nadal has also experienced a great resurgence the season, his battles with Federer continue to be the stuff of legends and he’s now 19-5 on the season, despite not yet having a title of his own. His best surface, clay, awaits after wins on the trot against Dudi Sela, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and surprise semifinalist Fabio Fognini. Only against Kohlschreiber did Rafa drop a set prior to the final and he’s suffered just one truly shocking loss this season, a season that has seem him take part in three finals.
Veterans Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo eased past Nick Monroe and Jack Sock in the doubles final.
American Talents Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul March on at Miami Qualifying Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
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Taylor Fritz justified his position as the top ranked player in the men’s qualifying draw at the Miami Open by reaching his second successive Masters 1000 main draw.
The US Open Boys’ champion is currently ranked 81st in the world and reached his first ATP final in Memphis last month. Opening his Miami campaign against Argentina’s Nicolas Kicker, a player who achieved a ranking high of 155 two weeks ago, the American eased his way to a 6-4, 6-3, victory. Following his straightforward first round win, Fritz encountered a much tougher meeting against wildcard Alex Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov recently ended his three-year title drought by winning a Futures tournament in Canada. Fritz dropped the first set against the world No.422 before clawing his way back to win 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, to seal his place in the main draw at Miami for the first time.
Fritz’s triumph in Miami was one of a series for American players. Five American men qualified for the main draw for the first time since 2009. Bjorn Fratangelo was another to delight the home crowd. At the BNP Paribas Masters in Indian Wells, the 22-year-old became the fifth player this year to take a set off world No.1 Novak Djokovic. The impressive display by Frantangelo in California continued in Miami with two solid qualifying wins. Facing French 18th seed Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the first round, the American saved two match points in the second set to upset the Frenchman 4-6, 7-5, 6-4. After surviving the scare in the opening round, Frantangelo was more convincing in his second round win over Great Britain’s James Ward. Winning 78% of his first serves and successfully saving 7/7 break points, he eased to a 6-3, 6-3, victory after only 65 minutes of play.
Dennis Novikov’s first experience of the Miami Open is already one that he will remember. The American has a poor record in Masters 1000 tournaments after failing to qualify in three out of his past four attempts since 2012. On his route to his maiden Miami main draw, Novikov started proceedings by defeating 18th seed Ruben Bemelmans 6-4, 6-4. The Belgian player was playing in his first match after being sidelined from action due to back injury. He rounded off his successful qualifying campaign with a 6-1, 7-6(7), win over Argentina’s Marco Trungelliti.
Tommy Paul was the only player in the draw to produce back-to-back wins over seeded players to reach the main draw. Paul is the current french Open Boys’ champion and has won two Futures titles at the start of the year in the Florida cities of Plantation and Sunrise. After a straight sets win over 24th seed Carlos Berlocq, the 18-year-old played 10th seed Rogerio Dutra Silva. At the start of March Silva reached the final of the ATP Cachantun Cup, a Challenger tournament in Chile. The Brazilian was no match for Paul as the teen cruised to a 6-2, 6-3, win.
Completing the American contingent of qualifiers is the experienced Tim Smyczek. Since reaching the quarterfinals at the Delray Beach Open, the American hasn’t won a main draw match after losing to Juan Martin Del Potro in Indian Wells and Jared Donaldson at the Irving Challenger. He will now have an opportunity to end this losing streak following a straight sets win over Christian Harrison and Grega Zemlja in Miami. Since 2011 Smyczek has played three main draw matches at the event, winning just one (first round against Adrian Menendez-Maceiras in 2015).
Apart from the group of American victors, seven players from other countries also booked their place on the main stage of the Masters 1000 tournament. Mikhail Kukushkin, who was the second seed at the tournament, moved to the main draw after overcoming Brazil’s Joao Souza 6-4,7-6(4). The Kazakh player won 81% of his first serves compared to just 38% of his second against Souza. Kukushkin, who has fallen from 46th to 90th in the rankings since October, has only won five main draw matches this year. His best tournament so far this year was the Memphis Open when he reached the quarterfinals before losing to Kei Nishikori.
Marcel Granollers dropped only 11 games to book his place amongst the best in Miami. The Spaniard is currently on a seven match winning streak after winning the BMW Of Dallas Irving Tennis Classic, crushing Aljaz Bedene 6-1, 6-1, in the final, Granollers won his first title on hardcourts since the 2011 Valencia Open. He faced little resistance in Miami after easing his way past Vincent Millot and Alexander Sarkissian during qualifying. He will play in the main draw at Miami for the sixth time in his career.
34-year-old Benjamin Becker is edging closer towards a return back into the top 100. The world No. 102 has reached the quarterfinals at two ATP tournaments this year (Memphis and Delray Beach) as well as the semifinals at a Challenger tournament in Mexico. Seeded seventh in Miami, he endured a mammoth battle in the first round against Czech veteran Radek Stepanek. With the help of 11 aces, the German edged past Stepanek 6-4, 3-6, 6-4. Becker also experienced a bumpy ride in his second round match against Italy’s Andrea Arnaboldi. The Italian has had a slow start to the year, winning only two main draw matches. Despite being broken three times in the match, the world No. 100 closed the match out 7-6(4), 6-2.
France’s Pierre-Hugues Herbert crushed 2014 US Open Boys’ champion, Omar Jasika, 6-1, 6-0, in his opening match in Miami. Herbert is climbing up the rankings after a good start to 2016 by reaching the third round of the Australian Open before winning the ATP Bergamo Challenger. For a place in the main draw he faced Germany’s Mischa Zverev. Saving 6/10 breakpoints, Herbert sealed a 7-5, 6-2, win after 71 minutes on the court.
Nishioka (Photo: S. Kirby)
Yoshihito Nishioka survived a second round scare to progress to his first ever Masters main draw. After defeating Jozef Kovalik in straight sets during the first round, the 20-year-old faced 9th seed Horacio Zeballos. Zeballos has reached three semifinals so far this year this year on the Challenger circuit. The Japanese player was on the verge of going out as he trailed 4-6, 0-2. He managed to turn the momentum around to upset the higher ranked player 4-6, 6-4, 6-1, in a match that lasted four minutes shy of the two hour mark.
Another Japanese success story occurred for 12th seed Tatsuma Ito. Starting his Miami campaign against Casper Ruud, who is currently ranked No.11 in the junior rankings, he outlasted the 17-year-old 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-1. Next up for Ito was Noah Rubin. Rubin has just broken the top 200 for the first time in his career after qualifying for the main draw in Indian Wells. Ito put a halt to Rubin’s current momentum by taking the encounter 6-4, 6-4.
Completing the 12 qualifying players is Colombia’s Alejandro Gonzalez. In February he reached his first final of the year at the Morelos Challenger in Mexico, where he lost to Gerald Melzer. Facing American talent Jared Donaldson for a chance to qualify, he took the match 6-2, 3-6, 6-2. In his career, Gonzalez has only won one main draw match in Miami which was against Malek Jaziri at the 2014 tournament.
Full list of qualifiers
Taylor Fritz
Mikhail Kukushkin
Marcel Granollers
Bjorn Fratangelo
Dennis Novikov
Benjamin Becker
Alejandro González
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Yoshihito Nishioka
Tommy Paul
Tim Smyczek
Tatsuma Ito
Djokovic fends off Dolgopolov challenge on Tuesday @MiamiOpenTennis (Miami Open Day 8 Recap) Esam Taha for Tennis Atlantic
Photo Credit: Esam Taha
The men’s round of 16 sorted itself out on Tuesday as Novak Djokovic was biggest the story. The world number 1 was a set and a break down, facing more break points in the second set, but came to fend off a tough challenge from Alex Dolgopolov. Besides that match, Milos Raonic and Venus Williams
were upset, and Dominic Thiem reached his first ever Masters level quarterfinal.
Novak Djokovic d. Alex Dolgopolov 6-7(3) 7-5 6-0
The world #1 has not exactly had a smooth ride to get to the 4th round in Miami, dropping a set to Martin Klizan and having to fend off a Steve Darcis comeback effort. It wouldn’t get smoother for the Serb today as he faced an opponent that has taken a set from him 3 out of their last 4 meetings. That opponent, the Ukranian Alexander Dolgopolov is coming off 2 tight wins against veteran Tommy Robredo and a Miami crowd favorite Thomaz Bellucci. Alex has put up good fights against the world #1 in the past and today would be no different.
Dolgo came out absolutely firing on all cylinders to start off the 1st set. The talented shotmaker was taking the ball on the rise and taking time away from Djokovic in the rallies, clearly frustrating him. Meanwhile Novak was out of sorts, being impatient, and easily frustrated out on center court.Alex took an early 4-1 lead in the 1st, which included Djokovic smashing his racket to the chorus of boos from the Miami crowd. The Serb would also be cited for a couple of code violations which cost him a point penalty. However despite the mental battle the Serb was fighting he would come back to even things up at 5-5 and eventually force a tiebreak. It seemed that Novak had righted the ship and was on his way to assume control, however the Ukrainian had something to say about it. The tiebreak began with a little help from the netcord for Alex to get the minibreak right off the bat, needless to say Novak was fuming. He’d let that get to his head as he quickly fell to a 0-4 hole in the TB. Dolgo wouldn’t look back as he kept his calm to take the TB 7-3 and yet again for the 4th time in 5 meetings take a set from the Serb.
Dologopolov was firing serves against Djokovic (Photo Credit: Esam Taha)
The 2nd set began with Alex holding with ease, Novak still looked completely dejected on the court. It would carry on to his service game as Dolgo riped an inside out forehand to set up triple break point. On the 3rd attempt the Ukranian would smoke a DTL backhand return winner to go up 2-0 and really put Novak on the ropes. Despite Novak not playing his best, Dolgo had a lot to do with it as he played lights out tennis, he brimmed with confidence. The Ukrainian is known to have the tendency to display top 10 and below top 100 level simultaneously in the same match.
Top 10 Dolgo was on full force so far as he went up 3-0 in the 2nd. The next game would prove to be a pivotal point of the match. Dolgo continued to simply out-groudstroke Novak to set up a double breakpoint, an opportunity to go up a double break and tighten his grip on the match. However after a marathon of a rally Novak would come out on top to save the 2nd breakpoint, followed by a couple of UEs from Alex to hold and avoid going down 0-4. The Miami crowd could feel a hint of the tide turning. Alex would stumble the next game falling 0-30 but eventually regain his composure and hold to maintain the single break lead at 4-1. That tough hold seemed to get Novak’s mind back into the match as he produced sharper groundstrokes pinning Dolgo deep. Preventing Dolgo from getting superior court position would work as Novak finally broke to even things up at 4-4. Dolgo would elevate his level once more with some incredible shotmaking, he’d rip multiple winners on both sides of the court to hold, not easy to do against Djokovic especially on these courts. At 4-5 Nole would show his composure as he successfully held to stay in the match. Dolgo would then play a horrible service game to get broken followed by a Novak hold to take the 2nd. It seemed like Dolgo might’ve gotten hurt, the trainer would come out to tape his feet. It was unclear what sort of injury it was exactly but it seemed to be affecting his ankle. It would sadly prove to be the virtual end to the match as the Ukranian won only 3 points out of the next 27, practically immobile out there, losing the deciding set 0-6. Djokovic had successfully escaped another dicey match 6-7 (3), 7-5, 6-0.
Dolgo hurt himself going into the third set (Photo Credit: Esam Taha)
Djokovic won a hard fought match (photo credit: Esam Taha)
The Serb was available at the post-match press conference to reflection the bumpy start to the Miami Open and also weigh in on approaching Rafa’s 141 consecutive weeks at #1
Murray received a cake to celebrate his 500th win (photo credit: Esam Taha)
Andy Murray scored his 500th career ATP Main Draw win with a 6-4 3-6 6-3 result over Kevin Anderson, Murray continued his solid season thus far, as he put up a positive winner/unforced error ratio and returned incredibly well in the third set when it counted against the big serving South African.
Kei Nishikori was better in every department compared to David Goffin as that match was a 6-1 6-2 blowout. The Japanese #1 has not been challenged all tournament.
John Isner upset Milos Raonic 6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(5) in as many tiebreaks as were to be expected, both players served well and Isner continued the trend of being clutch when it matters, as he won the final two tiebreaks to win the match from a set down.
Fernando Verdasco posted 34 errors, and wasted a break lead in the second set to fall to Juan Monaco 6-3 6-3. Young gun Dominic Thiem posted his best result of the season, and his best ever masters result with a 7-6 4-6 7-5 win in a nailbiter over Adrian Mannarino. Thiem was down a break in the third and came back against a solid Mannarino. His backhand proving to be an effective weapon.
Tomas Berdych won over Gael Monfils fell and injured himself 6-3 3-2 ret. and David Ferrer beat a listless Gilles Simon 7-6 6-0.
Andrea Petkovic dominated Karolina Pliskova 6-4 6-2 and Carla Suarez Navarro upset Venus Williasm 0-6 6-1 7-5 in a remarkable comeback after a bagel, as they both reached the semifinals.
Babos/Mladenovic, Hingis/Mirza and Niculescu/Panova won in doubles, as did Pospisil/Sock, and Melo/Soares.
ICYMI: Djokovic Caps Off Spring Hard Court Season With 4th Straight Masters 1000 title Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
Novak Djokovic won his fourth Sony Open in Miami, and his fourth straight Masters 1000 level event (Shanghai, Paris, Indian Wells, Miami) on Sunday with a 6-3, 6-3 routine drubbing of world number 1 Rafael Nadal, his third straight victory against the rival Spaniard.
Nadal was surprisingly poor and never got his game tuned in, while Novak exposed his weaknesses and was in firm control the entire match, putting his foot on the gas from a set and a break up, as a Rafa comeback charge was halted.
Novak only had to play 4 matches this week, as he got 2 walkovers against Florian Mayer and Kei Nishikori in the semifinals. Both mens semis were walkovers for the first time in the open era. Djokovic’s wins were against Jeremy Chardy, Tommy Robredo and Andy Murray, all without dropping a set, a good hallmark for him.
Nadal returned to form and looks formidable getting back to his favored red clay, as he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Denis Istomin and Fabio Fognini in blowout straight sets, Milos Raonic in a competitive 3 setter and got the walkover against Tomas Berdych. This was the first world number 1 vs world number 2 meeting this season, as Indian Wells and the Aussie Open didn’t pan out as expected.
The Bryans won the doubles against Juan Sebastian Cabal/Robert Farah, their second straight Masters 1000 title as they won Indian Wells.
Montreal, March 24, 2014–Milos Raonic advanced to the fourth round of the Sony Open on Monday for the first time in his four appearances at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Key Biscayne thanks to a convincing 6-1, 6-2 over Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
Raonic’s Miami run has ended in the third round each of the last two years because of injury. He was forced to withdraw before taking on Andy Murray in 2012 and Sam Querrey in 2013.
This year, the 23-year-old needed just 56 minutes to beat Garcia-Lopez. In victory, Raonic hit ten aces, 28 winners, and lost only five points on serve in the match.
After dropping from no. 11 to no. 12 in the rankings this week, he will gain points as a result of this win.
In the Round of 16, Raonic will face the winner of the match between lucky loser Benjamin Becker of Germany and Slovenian qualifier Ajaz Bedene, who defeated Vasek Pospisil (Vancouver, BC) earlier in the event.
2014 ATP Miami Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
ATP Miami
Sony Open Tennis
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Miami, Florida, USA
March 19-March 30, 2014
Prize Money: $4,720,380
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stanislas Wawrinka (3)
4: David Ferrer (4)
5: Roger Federer (5)
6: Andy Murray (6)
7: Tomas Berdych (7)
8: Juan Martin Del Potro (8)
All 32 seeds get byes into round 2 and just one of the top 20 is missing (#14 Mikhail Youzhny)
Miami is stacked.
First round matchups to watch:
Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. (WC) Karen Khachanov
Gimeno-Traver is a Spanish journeyman who prefers clay but can be counted on to put a lot of balls back in play on any surface without bringing much special talent to things. He’s a good matchup for the 17 year old rising Russian Khachanov, who played well in the two Russian ATP events (St. Petersburg and Moscow) last year as a wild card, and gets a wild card into Miami this year to try and continue that run of success. He’s a reasonably big hitter who hasn’t done much this year, losing in ATP Chennai qualies round 2 and a Davis Cup match against Jerzy Janowicz in straights. He should be the underdog here, but I think he will pull off the upset against DGT, who is just 3-7 this year at the main draw ATP level on both clay and hard.
Bernard Tomic vs. Jarkko Nieminen
Bernard Tomic returns from a groin injury sustained at the Aussie Open and his first match back will be a tough test against the consistent veteran lefty Nieminen, who Tomic beat in Sydney last year in a close 3 setter, but reached the third round in Indian Wells. He very nearly reached the round of 16, needing only a few extra points against Roberto Bautista Agut.
Tomic looked his usual talented self before the AO but coming off the injury his form will have to be rusty, and he probably falls in straights to Nieminen, who his in better form than he was before IW.
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Sam Querrey
Stakhovsky comes off semis in the stacked Irving Challenger, and he has lost in the second round of his last 3 ATP events (Indian Wells, Dubai, Marseille). Querrey continues his ice cold play, as he is just 2-6 post Australian Open, with both those wins coming against players ranked outside the top 100. He was bounced in the second round of Indian Wells and shows no real signs of getting it together on home soil.
Querrey is 2-0 career against Stakhovsky, but neither of those meetings came on hard court. Given the current form of both players, I think Stako will win this one.
Ivo Karlovic vs. (Q)Paul-Henri Mathieu
Karlovic and Mathieu, both veteran players, have met just twice in their careers, with PHM winning the only hard court meeting in Cincinnati 5 years ago, the other meeting a Karlovic win on clay 6 years ago. Both players are in decent form. Karlovic won a round in Indian Wells, and before that he reached the quarters in Acapulco. PHM has been working his way back to the top 100 slowly, as he qualified in IW and gave Roger Federer a good second round match, and then qualified in Miami with a pair of solid wins. This one should be close and could go three. I’m favoring a slight upset here and going with PHM.
Daniel Brands vs. Radek Stepanek
After near upsets of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in consecutive tournaments, Radek Stepanek should be pleased to see his next opponent is a step down the competitive ladder, as the German Brands has really been struggling this year. Brands is just 5-9 overall, with 2 of those wins coming in Doha at the start of the year. His ranking has dropped as he lost in the opening round of both Indian Wells and Dubai, along with a second round loss in Irving to eventual champion Lukas Rosol. Stepanek reached the second round of his last two tournaments, Dubai and Indian Wells, and suffered close losses to Federer and Nadal. His form looks dangerous if he can avoid grueling matches. I expect the Czech to win this match.
Lukas Rosol vs. (Q)Dominic Thiem
Rosol comes off a challenger title at the stacked Irving challenger and he nearly beat Andy Murray in Indian Wells round 2 before that, pushing him to 3 sets. The week before, he made quarters in Dubai and beat Dmitry Tursunov, so things are looking pretty good for the Czech world number 38.
Thiem, a 20 year old rising Austrian, qualified for yet another ATP event, as he has upped his ranking to a career high of 86 after reaching the third round of Indian Wells as a qualifier with a good win over Gilles Simon. Both these players are playing some great tennis right now and could make surprise runs, but one of them has to lose in what will be their first meeting.
Thiem seems on the cusp of something special as he has qualified in 4 of the 5 ATP/Grand Slam tournaments he has entered this season, but Rosol seems to be bashing opponents at present. I favor Rosol to squeak past in this matchup by a hair.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, who lost to Alex Dolgopolov in the third round after scraping past Radek Stepanek in round 2, looks to bounce back In Miami, opening with Lleyton Hewitt or Robin Haase. Both of them lost in the second round of IW. Hewitt is 3-1 career on hard courts against Nadal, but hasn’t beaten him since 2005. Things have clearly changed since then. Assuming Nadal survives, he will meet one of Dmitry Tursunov/Denis Istomin/Nicolas Mahut in round 3. Tursunov was competitive against Federer in the second round of Indian Wells and could cause trouble.
Nadal’s likely round of 16 opponents are one of 14 seed Fabio Fognini, 19 seed Jerzy Janowicz, or the in form Roberto Bautista Agut.
Janowicz will face RBA or qualifier Steve Johnson in round 2, he was upset in the first round of Indian Wells, while RBA reached the round of 16 in IW.
Fognini lost in the third round of IW, and opens with Kenny De Schepper or qualifier Lukas Lacko, before being likely to meet JJ/RBA in the third round. Fognini is 3-1 in his career against RBA, but RBA won their only outdoor hard court meeting at the AO last year, and that should be an entertaining third round match, as Bautista continues to rise up the rankings.
Juan Martin Del Potro, who pulled out of IW citing continuing wrist problems, will face Ryan Harrison or Federico Delbonis in round 2. Harrison has a nice chance at the third round if he gets past the dirtballing Argentine, and faces off with a still not healthy Del Potro, as his wrist problems don’t seem to be going away even though he has passion to play. The survivor of that section will face either a qualifier, Aljaz Bedene/Jimmy Wang or a struggling Vasek Pospisil in round 3 in what is a very weak section as well.
Whoever survives the above section will face off with Milos Raonic, the 12 seed, or Gael Monfils, the 23 seed, in round 4. Raonic faces Guido Pella or qualifier Jack Sock in round 2 and then Monfils or Bradley Klahn/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Monfils lost a nail biter against Fognini in IW, while Raonic played well in reaching the quarterfinals. Monfils is 2-0 career against Raonic, but they have not met on outdoor hard courts before. I have a hunch Milos will be the one to survive.
3 seed Stan Wawrinka, who lost in the round of 16 in Indian Wells, opens with Gimeno-Traver/Khachanov and then should get a very tough test against Marin Cilic in round 3.
Cilic has to get past Igor Sijsling/Edouard Roger-Vasselin in round 2. He lost to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets in Indian Wells, and his form has been great all season, while Wawrinka was only decent in IW.
I’ll go with the upset and say Cilic gets through to round 4. Cilic is 2-1 on hard courts in his career against Wawrinka, their last meeting coming 3 years ago won by Wawrinka.
Cilic/Wawrinka should get a cracker of a round 4 match against the winner of the stacked section below them that features 22 seed Alex Dolgopolov and 13 seed Tommy Haas on pace for a third round meeting. IW semifinalist Dolgopolov, who has been in great form the past month, opens with Tomic/Nieminen in what could be a tough ask. Assuming he wins, he should meet Haas, who lost to Federer in IW but regained his form in the process as he reached the fourth round.
Haas has to get past Yen-Hsun Lu or Mikhail Kukuskhin in his first match to reach the third round. Lu made the third round in IW and has been good this season, but Haas is 2-0 career against him. Haas and Dolgo have a tied 1-1 h2h, with both meetings on hard courts, and Haas won the last meeting in Miami last year in straights. Given the fatigue factor, I think Haas will make the round of 16.
7 seed Tomas Berdych, who was bounced early by Bautista Agut in Indian Wells, but has had a strong season otherwise, faces qualifier Alex Bogomolov or Stephane Robert in round 2, then one of Gilles Simon/Pablo Carreno Busta/Joao Sousa in round 3. Simon has a 2-1 outdoor hard court h2h edge, and an overall h2h edge over Berdych, but he has lost his last two matches and hasn’t been that great this season, their last outdoor hard court meeting came in 2009. I think Tomas will recover and reach the round of 16.
IW semifinalist John Isner, the 10 seed, faces Carlos Berlocq or his countryman Donald Young in round 2. Assuming he advances, he will face one of Stakhovsky/Querrey or 18 seed Nicolas Almagro, who is returning from injury this week, in round 3. Given Almagro is on a 3 match losing streak, Isner should be safe to reach the round of 16. Stakhovsky should be the one going for a round 2 upset as well.
Bottom Half:
Indian Wells champion and 3 time Miami Champion Novak Djokovic is in great form as he faces off with Jeremy Chardy or Juan Monaco in round 2 and one of Florian Mayer/Ivan Dodig/qualifier in round 3.
Mayer is the seeded player but has lost 3 straight matches and is struggling, while Dodig has also lost 3 straight, giving the qualifier a nice chance at advancing.
Tommy Robredo, the 16 seed who was bounced in round 2 of IW by Cilic, opens with Rosol or Thiem.
Robredo is 2-0 on hard courts against Rosol in his career, including a win this season in 5 sets at the Australian Open, while Thiem is a dangerous lurker. Robredo/Rosol/Thiem will meet Ernests Gulbis/Julien Benneteau/Kyle Edmund in round 3. Gulbis and Benneteau both come off quarters in Indian Wells, and they both picked up some nice wins there: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Feliciano Lopez for Benneteau most notably, and Grigor Dimitrov and Bautista Agut for Gulbis. Gulbis should be the survivor from this section and reach the fourth round.
Defending and two time Miami champion Andy Murray, who lost to Milos Raonic in IW round of 16 and continues to struggle, opens his title defense against Matt Ebden or Lukasz Kubot before facing Feliciano Lopez in the third round. Feli needs to beat Jiri Vesely or Filippo Volandri in round 2. Murray has never lost to Lopez in 8 meetings, 5 of which came on outdoor hard courts. Murray beat him at the AO this year as well.
A struggling Jo-Wilfried Tsonga opens with Adrian Mannarino or Nikolay Davydenko in round 2, and I still think he will advance in his current form to do battle with one of Philipp Kohlschreiber/Santiago Giraldo/Marcos Baghdatis in round 3. Kohli was routined in his opening round IW match while Giraldo and Baghdatis are also struggling and really this entire section is quite weak. Tsonga has a large H2H advantage over Kohli, and even in pedestrian form probably reaches the fourth round against Murray.
Defending finalist David Ferrer returns from an injury he sustained in Acapulco and will face off with Marcel Granollers or Teymuraz Gabashvili in round 2. Assuming he’s healthy, expect Ferrer against Brands/Stepanek or 31 Seed Andreas Seppi in round 3. Seppi has been struggling all season, and Stepanek has a nice chance at the third round and a shot at an upset against Ferrer. However, I expect the grinding Spaniard to get out of his section.
Grigor Dimitrov, who continues to improve his game, but hasn’t quite made a masters breakthrough yet, opens with Michal Przysiezny/Albert Montanes in an easy opening match, and then should face Kei Nishikori, who got bounced out by Tommy Haas in IW round 3. Nishikori has to beat Marinko Matosevic/Alejandro Falla to get there and he is 1-0 against the Bulgarian with a win in Shanghai against him last year. Both players have had streaks of good form and are on the cusp of top 10 quality, making this a tough section to call. I think Dimitrov will be the survivor who should face Ferrer in the round of 16.
IW finalist Roger Federer has won Miami twice and has been great this year. He will do battle with PHM again or Karlovic in round 2 and then Fernando Verdasco in round 3, Verdasco needing a win against qualifier Thiemo De Bakker or Victor Hanescu.
Meeting the likely Federer in the round of 16 will be Kevin Anderson or Richard Gasquet in the section below, IW quarterfinalist Anderson, who lost to Federer in the IW quarters and is in great form otherwise. Kev opens with Horacio Zeballos or a qualifier, then should face Gasquet, who needs to beat Alejandro Gonzalez or qualifier Malek Jaziri in his first match. Gasquet is 3-1 against Anderson including 2-0 on an outdoor hardcourt, but he was run out of town by Fernando Verdasco in the IW second round and isn’t playing that well.
Dark Horses: Roberto Bautista Agut, Marin Cilic, Radek Stepanek, Nikolay Davydenko
RBA is a pretty obvious choice from the first quarter of the draw: the Spaniard and his gifted forehand will need to beat Steve Johnson again like he did in IW, Janowicz and then most likely Fognini to reach the fourth round, but once he does a test against Nadal should be on tap. With the way Rafa played in IW, an upset is certainly possible there in a battle of Spaniards.
Cilic is seeded, but he is somewhat of a favorite in his quarter, needing to beat ERV/Sijsling, Wawrinka most likely, and then Dolgopolov/Haas and Berdych/Isner to reach the semis. He’s in a section full of in form and talented players, but he is one of them and has been a man on a mission this year. He ran into the Djokovic buzzsaw in IW, but beyond that he looks to be playing top 10 level right now.
Stepanek has an outside shot at the quarters and a decent chance at the round of 16 if he can beat Brands, Seppi, most likely Ferrer in an upset, and then another upset against Dimitrov/Nishikori in the round of 16.
Davydenko isn’t in good form and really hasn’t been for years as his prime has passed him, but he’s a solid competitor who occasionally shows flashes of his former elite level of play. This is a section with few dark horses, but if he can get past Mannarino, upset Tsonga, then beat Kohlschreiber/Giraldo/Baghdatis on a bad day, he will be in the round of 16.
Predictions: R16:
Nadal d. Bautista Agut
Raonic d. Harrison
Cilic d. Haas
Berdych d. Isner
Federer d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Murray d. Tsonga
Djokovic d. Gulbis
RBA and Rafa have never met. RBA is 2 years younger than him, they’re both Spanish, and this all depends on the form of Nadal. RBA can beat him, but it will take a deflated Nadal to do it. It’s hard to predict that, so I think the world number 1 will advance.
Raonic (or Monfils) should cruise past whoever he meets in the round of 16. I’m going with Harrison, though a qualifier is also a possibility in such a weak section (injured Del Po, rusty Pospisil). The h2h on that matchup is 1-1 and Harrison has the lone outdoor hard court win, but Raonic is a much better player right now. Cilic has a 2-2 h2h with Haas with no outdoor hard court meetings, having just beat him in the Zagreb final this year, and I have him doing so again.
Isner is 2-1 against Berdych on outdoor hard, but I think Berdych will be fresher and will prevail in that matchup.
Federer should blitz Anderson again, Dimitrov is in better form than Ferrer, though Ferrer leads the h2h 3-1, and 2-0 on hard. Murray is in better form than Tsonga, and Djokovic should continue his win streak. The h2h is 2-1 on outdoor hard against the Latvian number 1.
Quarters:
Nadal d. Raonic
Cilic d. Berdych
Federer d. Dimitrov
Djokovic d. Murray
Nadal 3-0 is against Raonic on outdoor hard in his career, not having dropped a set. Even off his peak form, he should beat the Canadian. Berdych is 2-0 against Cilic on outdoor hard and beat him in the Rotterdam final this year in straights, but Cilic has beaten him twice and they play close matches, I think Cilic has the extra edge in form to prevail in that one. In that Rotterdam final, he was fatigued clearly and that influenced the result.
Federer has met the player formerly known as “Baby Federer” only once at the ATP level, beating him last year indoors in Basel in straights, and given his current form, he should do so again.
Djokovic is currently playing much better than Murray and I don’t think that one will be much of a match.
Semis:
Cilic d. Nadal
Djokovic d. Federer
Nadal and Cilic haven’t played in 3 years, and their outdoor hard court h2h is 1-1. Given current form, I think Marin will pull off a big upset to reach the final. I would also pick Berdych to do the same under similar circumstances. Djokovic-Federer is a reprisal of the Indian Wells final, and we saw what happened there: Federer can compete with him, but runs out of fuel late.
Final:
Djokovic d. Cilic
A rematch of their Indian Wells meeting last week, Cilic took a set off the world number 2 but lost the next sets 6-2 6-3. A similar thing should happen if they meet in this final, as Novak is back in machine-like form at present, though he is beatable. Novak is 7-0 against Cilic on outdoor hard and 8-0 overall.
