2020 @NewYorkOpen Preview, Predictions, Upsets

Steve Fogleman on Long Island

The New York Open is back for another year in the Coliseum in Hempstead, New York and we’re back as well at this ATP 250 tour event. A 250-level tournament is tricky for marketing purposes: just a couple of months ago, organizers were selling tickets for “Kei Nishikori Night” for Wednesday night’s matches. Then, Nishikori withdrew (as he just did in Delray Beach) and Nick Kyrgios became the celestial focus. Alas, he dropped out with a week to go, leaving it all to John Isner and the top Americans left to showcase. Let’s look at the draw.

Top seed John Isner is still looking for his first NY Open title in three tries. Like the other top 3 seeds, he’ll have a bye, meaning he need only win one match to reach the quarterfinals. He’ll face the winner of the Karlovic-Thompson match. There, I am taking Karlovic to avenge his Roland Garros loss to the Australian. In the quarters, Isner’s likely opponent will be 5 seed and fellow American Tennys Sandgren fresh off of yet another successful Australian Open run. Sandgren should ease past Steve Johnson in their first ever pro meeting on hard courts.

Quarterfinal: Isner vs. Sandgren

Reilly Opelka has his own quarter of the draw as the 3 seed. The 2019 NY Open champion would have been pleased with that, but the draw gods stuck the 2018 champion, Kevin Anderson, right into his section. They will face each other in the quarterfinals if Opelka gets out of his second round match against Nishioka/Laaksonen and Anderson can beat a qualifier and Cam Norrie.

Quarterfinal: Opelka vs.Anderson

4 seed Ugo Humbert probably has the most intriguing section of the draw. After a bye, he’ll face the winner of Marcos Giron and one Jack Sock.  At this point, Sock’s level of play is anyone’s guess. Even if Humbert does advance to the quarterfinals, I don’t think he’s a lock to move on any further. That’s because some of the biggest momentum in this section comes from two players: Tommy Paul and Miomir Kecmanovic. I’m picking the Serb to win their first meeting today and to beat the qualifier he’ll face in the second round. It’s a shame that Paul and Kecmanovic were drawn to play each other in the first round, because these young guns are very dangerous, especially in a 250. Currently, Kecmanovic is the underdog at +125 despite being the seeded player in the match.

Quarterfinal: Humbert vs. Kecmanovic

Milos Raonic, the 2 seed, also has to deal with a stacked quarter of his own. He starts play in the second round and Soonwoo Kwon will likely be his first opponent. Last year’s finalist is this year’s wildcard and Brayden Schnur would love to get back on track here in New York. Unfortunately, he’s drawn Dominik Koepfer in R1 in their first meeting and that match is going to be a tough out. However, with his 6-1 record on the black courts of the Coliseum, I would consider Schnur a value bet at +145. An all-Canadian quarter would be nice.

Quarterfinal: Raonic vs. Schnur

On a hunch, I think a Japanese player will advance to the second round, but I haven’t figured out which one yet. Yasutaka Uchiyama is a big first round underdog against Kyle Edmund. I will pick an upset of Yoshihito Nishioka today by Henri Laaksonen (+295). Or perhaps it will be top qualifying seed Go Soeda if he can get past Bernard Tomic today.

As always, this information is for amusement purposes only. And in just a few hours, the indoor main draw carnival begins.