Deep French Field Including Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Feature at ATP Montpellier Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first of the numerous ATP tournaments in France, Montpellier is a 250 on indoor hard courts. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
David Goffin comes off success in Davis Cup and will face Gilles Simon in the opening round, presuming Simon beats a qualifier. I’ll go with Simon in an upset, given home court advantage, Goffin’s likely fatigue, and Simon’s good form to start the year. David Ferrer is another veteran in good form, he’ll face Karen Khachanov, Ricardas Berankis/Julien Benneteau will follow. Simon over Ferrer is my pick in the quarters.
Richard Gasquet played well in Davis Cup, he has a tough opening match against Daniil Medvedev, with Pierre-Hugues Herbert/qualifier to follow. Gasquet is still my pick ot reach the quarters, opposite Damir Dzumhur. Dzumhur will face Calvin Hemery/Ruben Bemelmans in the second round.
Lucas Pouille struggled to start the season, he should beat a qualifier, but his countryman Benoit Paire should be tricky in the quarters. Paire opens with Mischa Zverev, John Millman/Yuichi Sugita will follow. Paire is my pick over Pouille in the quarters given the current form of both players.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a great shot in his section of the draw, Nicolas Mahut/Dustin Brown will be his first opponent, Andrey Rublev should be his quarterfinal opponent. Rublev opens with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Stefanos Tsitsipas/Jeremy Chardy will follow. Tsitsipas could make a run, but Rublev seems to be better at this point in time. Tsonga is my pick to reach the semis.
2017 ATP Montpellier Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The third ATP 250 this week takes place in France, on indoor hard courts, featuring three top 20 players, and a host of European talents. Here is your preview, with predictions.
Open Sud De France
ATP World Tour 250
Montpellier, France
February 6-12, 2017
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: €482,060
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP rankings parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (7)
2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (14)
3: Richard Gasquet (18)
4: Alexander Zverev (22)
Along with Sofia, Montpellier boasts a strong European centric field this week.
Playing at home in France should give Paire a clear advantage in this matchup, but he’s known to lose his focus, and the young Russian Khachanov needs to start winning matches like this if he’s going to cement himself at the tour level in the coming months. Khachanov has a bright future, but in the short term Paire’s firepower should be enough.
Daniel Evans (6)Mischa Zverev
After a tough weekend in the Davis Cup, Evans travels to France to take on an in-form Zverev on what should be a quick indoor hard court. Both Zverev and Evans have been playing at career bests early in 2017, but Zverev should be fresher, and his serve and volleying should be a difficult matchup for Evans.
Top Half:
After a miserable start to the season, top seed Marin Cilic badly needs to gain some momentum in this 250. Both Dustin Brown and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez are struggling, so Cilic should at least make the quarterfinals, most likely to face Feliciano Lopez, presuming Lopez beats a qualifier and Paire/Khachanov. Paire vs. Lopez isn’t easy to predict, but I have Lopez serve and volleying having a matchup edge. Cilic leads Lopez 4-2 in their h2h, and thus I have Cilic reaching the semifinals.
Three-time and defending Montpellier Champion Richard Gasquet comes off Davis Cup play, and jetlag may play a factor, but he should defeat Malek Jaziri or a qualifier, and then Mischa Zverev in the quarterfinals. Home favorite Quentin Halys or Illya Marchenko will face Zverev or Evans in round 2, with Zverev as the favorite, up until he faces Gasquet, who should win their match with superior groundstrokes and reach the semifinals.
An impressive 6-2 to start the season, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should delight home fans with a victory over Pierre-Hugues Herbert or a qualifier, and then another win over most likely Fernando Verdasco, presuming Verdasco defeats a qualifier and the winner of Daniil Medvedev/Tobias Kamke. Medvedev retired in his last match over the weekend, and may not be fit, despite his talent. Tsonga is better than the fellow aggressive veteran Verdasco at this venue.
Alexander Zverev struggled in Davis Cup play, but neither Borna Coric nor Aljaz Bedene are in good form themselves, which means Zverev should be opposite either Jeremy Chardy or Chardy’s countryman Paul-Henri Mathieu, the defending finalist, in the quarterfinals. Chardy opens with dirtballer Marcel Granollers, while PHM will face a qualifier. Chardy isn’t playing great at the moment, but at home in France I still have him upsetting Zverev, who seems a bit out of sorts.
The unseeded Frenchman Paire could also be trouble, but the young Zverev’s funk is Chardy’s gain as the unseeded Frenchman doesn’t have an overly difficult path to the semis, as long as he finds the mojo on his serve and stays in matches.
Predictions
Semis Gasquet d. Cilic
Tsonga d. Chardy
Cilic and Gasquet have split meetings, but the venue and form favors Gasquet. Tsonga has a h2h edge over Chardy and should be the better player.
Final Tsonga d. Gasquet
A close 5-4 h2h doesn’t provide much insight into who would win this final, but Tsonga should be fresher, and that alone gives him a slight edge.
The legend of Victor Estrella continues to grow, the 34 old won his maiden ATP title in Quito, becoming the first Dominican player to capture an ATP title. Estrella is set to soar past his previous career high ranking of 65 after winning a thrilling three setter with top seed, and top 15 player Feliciano Lopez 6-2 6-7 7-6. Estrella was up a break in the third set, and surrendered it, but he held his serve and got the match to a tiebreak, where he seized a crucial advantage over the Spaniard and took it 7-5. Estrella over the past 15 or so months has been the most inspiring story in tennis, and is a testament to hard work and never giving up on your dreams. He has received little support and considered dropping tennis due to financial difficulties given the lack of support from his undeveloped federation. He was the definition of journeyman until 11 months ago when he broke into the top 100 for the first time. Since them, he’s established himself at the ATP level and also done well in his first Slam main draws.
Estrella began his run this week with a win over Andre Ghem, after that he beat Renzo Olivo, and upset 4 seed Martin Klizan to reach the semis, all without dropping a set. In the semis, he held on against Bellucci, who gave the match away in straights. ATP 250 events often receive criticism for field quality, and so much of the attention in the tennis world gets focused on the top 10 and the Masters and Slam level events, but if you ask me, Estrella and his story are what pro tennis is all about, he’s certainly not the most physically gifted or technically skilled player on tour, but with heart, and drive, he has gotten himself this far on tour, and the run doesn’t appear to be likely to end anytime soon. This is a sport where the grittiest, most dedicated players can post good results, and this was a magical week for Victor Estrella.
As for the top seed Lopez, he remains a Spaniard without a clay court title, Feli beat Alejandro Gonzalez in straights, Dusan Lajovic in 3 sets, from a set down and staring triple break point in the face in set 2, and Fernando Verdasco in a pair of tiebreaks, as Verdasco was unable to convert his chances in that match and mentally collapsed under pressure. His slice and serve was generally effective this week en route to the final.
Estrella pulled double duty in Quito this week, as he and his partner Joao Souza reached the doubles final, however it was Germans Gero Kretschmer and Alexander Satschko that took the doubles title in the end.
Richard Gasquet claimed his third career Montpellier title thanks to a retirement from an ill Jerzy Janowicz. Janowicz would have been bidding for his maiden ATP title but he simply wasn’t physically able to contest this match, retiring after 3 games. Gasquet staved off Lucas Poulle in straights, avoiding a third set against the young gun, and then beat Denis Istomin and Gael Monfils to reach the final. Monfils was also struggling with an undisclosed illness.
Janowicz had a great week, in fact already showing considerable improvements to his game after a dismal 2014. The Polish number one saved six match points against Dustin Brown to advance in 3 sets, and then also beat Benoit Paire in 3 sets to reach the quarters. Janowicz showed clutch play and steady improvement as he beat Gilles Simon in straights and Joao Sousa in 3 sets, with a third set breadstick in his final competitive match, and it’s a shame the final never took place.
Artem Sitak and Marcus Daniell beat Dominic Inglot and Florin Mergea, the top seeds, to win the doubles title, Sitak and Daniell are the first New Zealand pairing to win an ATP doubles title in decades.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez won his second career indoor hard court title in Zagreb, upsetting the favored, and in form Andreas Seppi, who has been off to a hot start in 2015. GGL and Seppi were neck and neck in the first set, and GGL clawed back a minibreak to take the first set, in the second, it was likewise close, but Seppi played a poor service game at 3-4 to get broken, and GGL served the match out after that for a 7-6 6-3 victory. It was close but GGL had fewer errors in his game and won the longer rallies, as he continues to post up and down results with his diverse game.
Garcia-Lopez demolished Damir Dzumhur in round 2, then beat Viktor Troicki in a close 3 set contest, and fellow veteran Marcos Baghdatis in the semifinals 4 and 4. Baghdatis had previously saved a match point to defeat Ivo Karlovic in round 2, and was perhaps fatigued from having three previous three set wins (over Toni Androic, Mikhail Youzhny and Karlovic) to reach the semifinals.
Seppi didn’t have any easy matches this week, he needed 3 sets against Robin Haase, James Ward, and Ricardas Berankis, that match decided in a tight third set tiebreak, and then he won a first set breaker and went on to breadstick Marcel Granollers for a straight set win in the semifinals. Outside of Berankis, and perhaps Igor Sijsling, all of the quarterfinalists in Zagreb this week were veteran players (Baghdatis, Youzhny, GGL, Troicki, Seppi, Granollers). Seppi already has an ATP final, an ATP semi (Doha) and the second week of a Slam (the AO) on his resume and it’s just now the second week of February as he has been on a tear as of late.
Home fans in Croatia had something to cheer about as Marin Draganja, a Croat, along with his partner Henri Kontinen of Finland beat Fabrice Martin and Purav Raja to capture the Zagreb doubles title. Croatian legends Ivan Ljubicic and Goran Ivanisevic were on hand to celebrate with the Zagreb winners this week, in a nice moment at the end of the tournament.
Tennis Atlantic 