Veteran Slate Qualifies for 2015 ATP Shanghai Main Draw Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
six of eight players from qualifying in the 2015 ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters Main Draw are veterans with plenty of ATP tour experience, as they will look to use that tour experience to help them pull off main draw upsets.
A pair of Asian players, Go Soeda of Japan, and Yen-Hsun Lu, a regular on ATP tour from Taiwan, made it through tough draws to qualify. Lu beat young Japanese speedster Yoshi Nishioka, and then Nicolas Mahut in three sets, while Soeda beat Fajing Sun, and then South Korea’s young gun Hyeon Chung in three sets.
Eastern Europeans also did well, Nikoloz Basilashvili will play, at least, his twelfth tour level match of the season after beating Shuichi Sekiguchi and the in-form Austin Krajicek, a Tokyo quarterfinalist, to qualify without dropping a set. Andrey Kuznetsov found success after coming up short in Beijing qualies. Kuznetsov beat Yecong He in three sets, and then dispatched Donald Young, though Young would go on to make the main draw as a lucky loser. Lastly, 33 year old Lukasz Kubot will play just his third ATP main draw level match this year after getting past a pair of Frenchman, Lucas Pouille and Pierre-Hugues Herbert to qualify. Herbert retired in his match, while the win over Pouille was an upset.
Potentially dangerous tour veterans Simone Bolelli and Albert Ramos complete the list of qualifiers. Bolelli, who also qualified in Beijing, beat Matteo Donati, his countryman, and Michal Przysiezny in a three setter to advance. Ramos defeated Zhizhen Zhang and Michael Berrer without dropping a set.
In the main draw, Lu will have a winnable match against Dominic Thiem, Kuznetsov draws Feliciano Lopez, Bolelli will face Vasek Pospisil in an even contest, Soeda has a tough match against David Goffin, Basilashvili will face an equally difficult tilt against Simon, Kubot faces American Jack Sock, Ramos takes on Sam Querrey, and Young should be favored against Victor Estrella.
A diverse field of qualifiers claimed their sports in the 2015 ATP Montreal, Rogers Cup main draw this weekend in what was a competitive qualifying tournament. The headliner was Ernests Gulbis, who may be coming out of what has been a season long slump, and beat both Blaz Rola and top qualifying seed Nicolas Mahut, the latter in a close three sets, to qualify. Gulbis was ranked as high as #10 in the world last year, and has six ATP titles, but he’s endured a dreadful season, and perhaps the summer will help regenerate him and his focus.
Along with Gulbis, young gun Hyeon Chung also made the main draw. The 19 year old Korean with a whippy backhand is in great form on the US Open Series thus far (3-1), and dominated both of his matches, the first against Kelsey Stevenson, and the second against Alejandro Gonzalez. Chung has a bright future ahead and we are likely to see him in many Masters main draws to come.
Like Gulbis, Alexandr Dolgopolov has endured a poor season, but the perpetual top 20 talent, who has now been on tour for a while, won a pair of tough matches over Dudi Sela and Alejandro Falla to qualify. Dolgopolov is 4-1 in his last five matches, and should serve as a dark horse threat on hard courts in the Montreal draw. He has two ATP quarterfinals on hard courts this year and also reached the round of 16 in Miami, pushing Novak Djokovic to three sets.
Two other veteran presences on tour also qualified, Yen-Hsun Lu used his baseline ball striking talents to easily dispatch David Volfson and Brayden Schnur, dropping jut three games in four sets of tennis. Mikhail Youzhny snapped a long losing streak, as the Russian surprisingly found form and whipped his one handed backhand to wins over J.P. Smith and Pierre-Hugues Herbert without dropping a set.
Lastly, two Americans qualified north of the border in Quebec as Donald Young snapped a cold streak and beat Rajeev Ram with ease after slipping past Edouard Roger-Vasselin in three sets. He will face off with his countryman Denis Kudla, who continued his fantastic form with routine wins over Ryan Harrison and James Duckworth, both of whom were challenging opponents on paper. Young is 6-1 against Kudla in the h2h, but Kudla clearly has an edge in form.
In the main draw Dolgopolov will have a punchers chance at an upset against Grigor Dimitrov, a fellow shotmaker, Gulbis faces one of his best friends on tour Dominic Thiem, Lu will have a chance to avenge his defeat to Vasek Pospisil in Atlanta and Youzhny faces a struggling Viktor Troicki in a winnable match.
Another scorching day in Atlanta was interrupted by afternoon rain showers, but they passed, and before 9 P.M. main draw singles and doubles play was completed, additionally final round qualies were completed and the qualifiers were placed into the bracket, setting up an exciting batch of matches for Tuesday.
Three main draw singles matches were complete on the day, the biggest of which was Go Soeda‘s 5-7 7-6(5) 6-3 victory over fan favorite Alex Dolgopolov. The match was interrupted by the rain in the first set, and after a lengthy delay after a pair of breaks of serve, both players returned to court and began holding their serves relatively easily.
Soeda, a defensive baseliner who feeds his opponents a steady diet of groundstrokes, lacked the weapons to bother Dolgopolov with his quick footwork, but Dolgopolov was struggling to keep his error count down, as he often does, and eventually on serve it went to 5-5. Dolgopolov would then save a key break point chance for Soeda and go up 6-5, and in the next game he broke on his second chance to do so in the game, and took the first set with a running start. .
Even up a set Dolgopolov’s body language didn’t seem confident or promising at this point, and it was visible he may have been struggling in the hot conditions. Soeda was a bit of a brick wall, and generally is hard to break down as he returned ball after ball side to side. Dolgopolov had more shotmaking prowess, especially with running forehand winners but the second set held true to form, Soeda saving a lone break point serving 1-2 as it went all the way to a tiebreak without another break point dangled before either player. Soeda was under pressure having to serve behind all set, and Dolgopolov at times looked like he might put the match away, but when it got to the tiebreak Soeda was the steadier player and took it 7-5, even after Dolgopolov hit a fantastic winner 4-6 down in the breaker.
Soeda had the momentum at this point and remained unfazed and unrattled as Dolgopolov began to slow down. The Ukranian’s quick strike serve generated more aces, but Soeda eventually read Dolgo’s shots and angles, forcing his opponent to become increasingly reckless. The break came for 3-1 in set 3, and Soeda never looked back, Dolgo had to save another break point serving 1-4, and Soeda held on with relative ease for a 6-3 3rd set. It’s the first ATP main draw win for Soeda since April, as Dolgopolov again demonstrated why his ranking has fallen out of the top 70. He has the talent but mentally and physically he struggles to maintain a consistent level throughout an entire match.
Joning Soeda in round 2 is another player who has always enjoyed playing in Atlanta, Gilles Muller. Muller was totally dominant as Donald Young continued to struggle, slumping to a 6-2 6-1 defeat. The loss was particularly bad as the match only last an hour and Muller is normally a player who struggles to break his opponents serve. DY was plainly flat while Muller was happy to work quickly in the heat.
Yen-Hsun (Rendy) Lu had an interesting time of it against Malek Jaziri in the first main draw match, winning it 6-1 7-6(12). Jaziri stumbled badly out of the gate, and appeared listless. His serve and his groundstrokes weren’t effective at all, and he appeared totally out of shape. Lu, a steady counterpunching baseliner who is solid from both wings was happy to let Jaziri stumble through a breadstick in 24 minutes, but the Tunisian didn’t give up so easily in the second set.
Jaziri went up a break 3-2, and served for a third set at 5-4, but plainly choked, getting broken at love under the pressure. From 5 all they held serve and went into a tiebreak where Jaziri had six set points and couldn’t convert a single one, including from 6-4 up. Lu needed three match points, but finally he got into round 2, escaping his streaky opponent in the nick of time, as Jaziri clearly let his nerves get the best of him against such a steady opponent.
Americans Krajicek, Donaldson, and Kudla qualify for the main draw
All four final round qualifying matchups were rather routine affairs as the heat seemed to be limiting many of the player’s fighting spirit after they fell behind. Austin Krajicek blitzed Yuichi Sugita 6-2 6-1, as Sugita played much worse than expected. Denis Kudla sent the slumping Marinko Matosevic packing 7-5 6-2. Matosevic continues to struggle to return to ATP quality form, while Kudla extended his positive momentum from Wimbledon.
Jared Donaldson beat Guido Pella as the young gun American has made another ATP main draw as a teenager, Pella’s 6-2 7-6(6) defeat demonstrated why he prefers clay as the more aggressive Donaldson was able to rattle him. Indian Veteran Somdev Devvarman also reached the main draw with a 6-3 6-3 over Shuichi Sekiguchi in just under an hour and a half. Devvarman is also showing good form and all of the qualifiers certainly deserve their spots in the draw.
Those spots are Kudla against Ryan Harrison in an All-American battle where he should be the favorite, the winner to face American Jack Sock, the #3 seed, the veteran Devvarman against the teenager Donaldson, and Krajicek against the veteran Marcos Baghdatis as he will look to pull off a big win against the formerly top 10 #5 seed.
Tuesday in Atlanta will feature one of the retiring greats of American men’s tennis, Mardy Fish, in a night session match against defending finalist Dudi Sela, and prior to that, one of the most promising American teenagers Frances Tiafoe against the big serving Sam Groth as American players will have the spotlight put on them. Tiafoe played a Monday night exhibition against the retired Andy Roddick and lost 6-3 6-4, Roddick’s big serve, even as a retiree, foiled hm, and Groth is even better at those same tactics.
Besides those late matches, the aforementioned Baghdatis-Krajicek match will take place, as it will be interesting to see how Baghdatis adapts to the 90+ degree noontime conditions, given that his fitness has previously been in question throughout his career. At the same time Lukas Lacko will face Steve Johnson, with Kudla vs. Harrison, Devvarman vs. Donaldson, and also an all-German veteran battle between Michael Berrer and Benjamin Becker completing the schedule for singles.
In doubles the marquee nightcap on Stadium is Mate Pavic/Michael Venus against Atlanta’s Donald Young and Christopher Eubanks. Additionally, Matt Ebden/Adrian Mannarino will face Eric Butorac/Artem Sitak and prior to that the defending champion pairing of Vasek Pospisil/Jack Sock will face Colin Fleming and the in-form Gilles Muller.
Look for a report on those matches after Tuesday night or Wednesday morning!
Grass court qualifying in two places, both 500 level events with two rounds of qualifying action, took place over the weekend, as some interesting names booked their place in the main draw.
ATP Halle Qualifying
In Halle, defending finalist Alejandro Falla is the strongest of the qualifiers. Last year Falla made a surprise run to that final and he’s also reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon previously in his career. The veteran lefty has a game built for grass and he comfortably defeated Janko Tipsarevic and Tim Puetz, without dropping a set, to qualify.
Another of the four qualifiers in total is lefty Jarkko Nieminen who beat Filip Krajinovic and Tatsuma Ito without dropping a set. Nieminen isn’t a grass court specialist by any stretch of the imagination but he’s fast on his feet and plays aggressively.
A pair of talented but underachieving players also qualified, Slovak Lukas Lacko, now 27,has an aggressive and powerful game built for grass and he beat two solid opponents, Peter Gojowczyk and Jurgen Melzer in three sets to qualify. Lacko faces Falla in round 1. 24 year old Ricardas Berankis upset Austin Krajicek in three sets, and Vasek Pospisil 6-3 6-3 to qualify. The undersized ball striker was a top junior but has been a bust as a pro.
Berankis will have a winnable round 1 match against Tommy Robredo in round 1, while Nieminen could also advance as he faces Alexander Zverev, a wild card, in round 1.
ATP London Queens Qualifying
Sixteen players participated in the qualifying competition at the Aegon Championships, which is held at the Queen’s Club in London.
Italian world number 56 Simone Bolelli was the top seed in the qualifying draw and experienced little trouble. After a straight sets win over Lucas Pouille in the first round, he faced France’s Edouard Roger-Vasselin. The Frenchman produced an impressive performance at the tournament last year when he reached the third round in the singles draw as well as the semi-final in the doubles. Bolelli however, experience no trouble as he dropped his service once on his way to winning 7-6 (4), 6-3.
In the main draw the Italian faces a tough encounter against Richard Gasquet. Bolelli has played Gasquet on five previous occasions and has lost all of them. Their most recent match was earlier this year at the Doha Open where Gasquet eased his way to a 6-3, 6-2, win. Gasquet could face pressure but I presume he’ll prevail.
Rendy Lu was pushed hard during his match against Denis Istomin. The second seed produced a straight sets win over the talented Luca Vanni in the first round whilst Istomin edged his way past Go Soeda. During the match there was only two breaks of serve, one each, as both sets went into tie-breaks with Lu winning 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5).
The reward for Lu is a first round showdown against top seed Andy Murray. He has beaten Murray once before which was in the first round of the 2008 Beijing Olympic games. Since then, Murray has won their two most recent encounters (both in 2013) without dropping a set. Murray should blast through the weaponless Lu to reach round 2.
The biggest surprise was the impressive run by 18-year-old wild card Jared Donaldson. The American knocked out third seed and fellow countryman Tim Smyczek in the first round to face Tobias Kamke. Kamke has experienced a disastrous 2015 so far with only one main draw win to his name. His sole win was against Vincent Millot in Montpellier last February. The misery continued for the German as Donaldson cruised to take the match 7-5, 6-3. Donaldson is currently at a ranking high of 152 in the world and won his first Challenger title in Maui at the start of the year.
Donaldson, the American number 12, will play America’s number 1 John Isner in the first round. Given Isner’s experience, he should win comfortably.
Finally hopes of a British winner in the qualification draw were ended after Paul-Henri Mathieu beat Brydan Klein during the battle of the wild card’s. The former world number 12 produced a three sets win over 4th seed Chung Hyeon in the first round. Mathieu, who hasn’t won a title since 2007, required just over an hour on the court to break the British world number 188 6-3,6-2.
Mathieu will play Stuttgart finalist Viktor Troicki in the first round. Troicki’s run to the final in Germany has clearly demonstrated that the Serbian is currently in impressive shape, especially with his serve. On the other hand, there will be questions about how tired he will be coming into Queen’s. The two players have been drawn to play each other on three previous occasions but none of the matches got completed with one of the retiring (Troicki twice and Mathieu once). Presuming Troicki doesn’t retire and keep up the trend, his superior form should win him the day.
2015 ATP Acapulco, Dubai, and Buenos Aires Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of 500 series events on hard courts this week are the highlight of the ATP calendar, as most stars will take to the courts in Mexico or Dubai, meanwhile, the ATP Golden Swing on clay concludes in Buenos Aires, with those who prefer the dirt taking their talents to Argentina for the 250 level event.
ATP Acapulco
2015 ATP Acapulco Preview
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $1,414,550
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
4: Kevin Anderson (15)
The seed cutoff is 40 (Benjamin Becker), and 4 of the top 20 are participating in this 500 level event this week.
Estrella is in tremendous form at the moment, he won the Morelos challenger on hard courts in Mexico, after winning his maiden ATP title in Quito. Lu, the steady veteran baseliner, reached the quarters in Delray, with an upset win over Kevin Anderson. I have Estrella winning this matchup given how well the veteran is playing right now, but it could go either way.
Bernard Tomic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players come off semifinals in Delray, Tomic beat Viktor Troicki en route later losing to Donald Young, while Mannarino beat Lu, and also Denis Kudla, before falling to eventual champion Ivo Karlovic. Tomic should be favored as he’s in better recent form and has won consecutive matches in every tournament he’s played this season (12-5 ATP record in 2015), expect a quality contest all the same though.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori opens with a qualifier, and then the Estrella/Lu winner, Estrella is a dangerous opponent right now, but the top 5, and normally consistent Nishikori, should reach the quarterfinals with Sam Groth/Alex Dolgopolov his most likely opponent. The winner of Groth/Dolgopolov, will face Robin Haase or Rio semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2. Dolgo was a quarterfinalist in Delray, and I give him a slight edge to beat Groth, and then Haase to reach the quarters here. Nishikori, who won the title in Memphis, and has made quarterfinals or better at every tournament this season (10-2 ATP record), is 2-0 in the h2h against Dolgo, with both wins coming on hard court, so I favor Asia’s top player over the unpredictable Dolgopolov for a spot in the semifinals.
Kevin Anderson, a finalist last year, will open with fellow big server Dustin Brown. Though Anderson lost early in Delray, he was a finalist in Memphis, and I have him getting through Brown, and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters. Johnson hasn’t lost in the opening round of any tournament this year (9-5 ATP record including consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Memphis). Johnson will open with Ivan Dodig, who has been thus far unable to return to his previous top 40 form this year. Anderson already has 2 wins against Johnson this year without dropping a set in Memphis and Auckland, and that’s why he’s the quarterfinal favorite.
Viktor Troicki, who lost to Tomic in Delray, has a reasonable chance at another quarterfinal showing, he opens with Mexican wild card Daniel Garza, who has some of the worst physical conditioning I’ve ever seen in a professional tennis player. After that, Troicki is likely to face Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo is 2-0 against Troicki, including a hard court win, but he retired in his last match in Rio, and given the surface, with Troicki already having an ATP title, and a quarterfinal on his resume this year, the Serbian should be favored. Troicki beat Anderson once three and a half years ago in Washington, and that match could go either way but with Anderson having previous success here, I have him into the semifinals over Troicki.
Rio champion David Ferrer opens with Igor Sijsling, who continues to struggle having lost three straight, even if Ferrer is a bit worn down, he only has one loss on the season, with two ATP titles (Doha and Rio), and with that in mind he should roll past Sijsling and then Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers to reach the quarters. Matosevic has struggled this year (2-5 ATP record), while Granollers has a lone good showing this year in Zagreb (semifinals) I have Ferrer over Granollers in my bracket. Ferrer is 3-1 on hard courts against him, though Granollers won their last meeting in Tokyo.
The Tomic/Mannarino winner is a possible quarterfinal opponent for Ferrer, but watch out for 8 seed Benjamin Becker as well. Becker, who comes off a round 1 loss in Memphis, and is 2-4 on the year, opens with Tobias Kamke, a fellow German. Becker is 3-0 against Tomic, though they have never met on a hard court surface, I personally have Tomic into the quarters against Ferrer in my own bracket. Ferrer is 2-0 against Tomic, with both meetings on hard courts, and he has never dropped a set against the Aussie, still fatigue may be a factor, giving Tomic a shot at the semis.. In my own bracket I’m going with Ferrer, who has had an under the radar solid season already and isn’t presently showing signs of decline. Ferrer was only pushed to 3 sets once last week in Rio.
Defending champ Grigor Dimitrov has failed to impress this year, the Bulgarian number one opens with Filip Krajinovic in round 1, he should get through that, but Donald Young should give him a round 2 test, unless fatigue is a factor. Young, a finalist in Delray, and semifinalist in Memphis, opens with a qualifier, and he has two previous hard court wins against Dimitrov, but Dimitrov has also won twice on hard courts, with three of their four hard court meetings going 3 sets. Dimitrov hasn’t played like a top 10 player thus far but given his previous success here, and Young’s fatigue, I have Dimitrov into the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic, the Delray champion, has an interesting draw, in theory he should comfortably reach the quarterfinals, given his opponents, Teymuraz Gabashvili and Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, are not exactly hard court superstars, but at his age, one has to wonder if he will be fatigued, creating an opening for a qualifier, or one of those other two players to reach the quarterfinals. I don’t trust Karlovic’s fitness and thus I have Gabashvili through, and also I have him over Lajovic, who may fall to a qualifier, to reach the quarterfinals. Gabashvili has lost three straight, while Lajovic has lost two straight and he’s normally poor on hard courts. All the same Dimitrov has a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event, and should ease his way into the semifinals.
Viktor Troicki is a possible semifinalist this week, but I give Tomic the official designation because he’s been consistent this year, which is a surprising thing to say, given he used to not be, and if Ferrer is fatigued, he has a shot to score a top 10 win and get himself to the semis, where Dimitrov, a beatable opponent, is most likely to await. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Tomic in the h2h, but Tomic has had a good season and he seems due to reach a final, though I’m not predicting it, the possibility is there.
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Nishikori just beat Anderson in Memphis, and should do so again, meanwhile, Dimitrov is 0-2 against Ferrer on an outdoor hard court but given the fatigue factor, I have Dimitrov regaining form and reaching the final this week thanks to a lucky draw.
Final: Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Nishikori is 2-0, with both wins coming on hard courts, against Dimitrov, given his solid season, he should win his second ATP title of the year in Acapulco as the top seed.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $2,082,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (8)
The seed cutoff is 20 (David Goffin), as Dubai has a very top heavy field, with 4 of the top 10, and 8 of the top 20 participating.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Vasek Pospisil
Djokovic beat Pospisil in their only meeting, a competitive contest last year in Beijing, and the Australian Open champion should once again advance to round 2 at a tournament he has won four times prior, however the young Canadian has game and this isn’t the easiest of round 1 matchups for the world number 1, Pospisil is 2-2 over his last four, and may be able to at least push the sets deep here.
Simone Bolelli vs. (Q)Lucas Pouille
One of the numerous matchups this week slated between in-form players, Bolelli has two ATP quarterfinals on his resume this year, most recently he reached the quarters in Marseille by upsetting top 10 player Milos Raonic in 3 sets. Pouille has risen to the occasion this year as well, the young Frenchman qualified with a pair of wins, and he was also a semifinalist in Auckland this year. Bolelli should be favored given his experience, and good recent form, but look for Pouille to test him, in a match that could go either way.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Goffin, and most recently crushed him at the Australian Open, in a poor showing for the Belgian. Baghdatis has gotten his 2015 off to a strong start with a challenger final, a a third round showing in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Zagreb. Goffin meanwhile has not played as well this season, compared to last, he hasn’t posted better than a quarterfinal, and he’s just 2-4 over his last six matches, most recently he retired in Marseille against Dominic Thiem. With that in mind, though Goffin is much higher ranked, look for Baghdatis to move to 3-0 in the h2h and notch an upset to reach round 2.
Andreas Seppi vs. Richard Gasquet
Two players who have started the season in good form, Seppi has an ATP final (Zagreb), an ATP semifinal (Doha), and a second week appearance at the Australian Open on his resume thus far, resulting in an overall 11-5 ATP record this year, while Gasquet is 7-2 with a title in Montpellier on his resume. The shotmaking, tactically agile veterans have met five times previously, most recently back in 2012, and Gasquet is 4-1 in those meetings, with his lone loss coming on clay. Gasquet should be favored here but Seppi cannot be counted out, he’s improved his game considerably it seems this season, compared to previous seasons, and this match should at minimum not be a routine affair.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This should be quite a high quality contest, Verdasco, who won the last hard court meeting between these Spaniards in 2012 is a slight favorite. He’s had a somewhat average season thus far with a 6-4 ATP record. Dasco took his talents to the golden swing for a couple of tournaments and is now back on hard courts while GGL has been off to a hot start in 2015 sticking to the hard courts. Garcia-Lopez won Zagreb, and already has 10 wins on the season (contrasted with 4 losses, two of which came at the racquet of top 10 player Stan Wawrinka in competitive contests). I personally have GGL winning this one, his play has been quite impressive thus far, and he is outperforming Verdasco right now.
Djokovic should be able to roll to the semifinals here, after Pospisil, Andrey Golubev or qualifier Fabrice Martin await, and then it should be Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. Lopez has generally lived up to his high ranking thus far this season (6-3 on the year), and he should defeat James Ward and Marsel Ilhan or Alex Zverev, but I give him little chance against Novak who he is 0-5 in his career against. The only time he took a set was in their Dubai 2011 meeting. On an interesting note about Martin-Golubev, Martin broke a seven match losing streak dating back to last season to qualify and he beat Borna Coric notably in those qualies, while Golubev is just 1-5 this season with four straight losses. Perhaps the recent boost to Martin’s confidence will get him through to round 2. Zverev should be the one to face Lopez, as he just beat Ilhan in Marseille qualifying a week prior.
Tomas Berdych, who has been solid this season with two ATP finals (Doha and Rotterdam), and of course that semifinal at the Australian Open on his resume already, opens with Jeremy Chardy, a quarterfinalist in Marseille. Berdych is 2-0 against Chardy, and does what the Frenchman is best at, better than he does, so I have little doubt it will be Berdych, who has made two consecutive finals here into round 2 against the Bolelli/Pouille winner. That should be a quality contest, and if Bolelli his Berdych’s round 2 opponent, the Italian has beaten the Czech twice before (2-3 h2h), so he may be able to do some damage, but once again the confidence pick should be Berdych as a quarterfinalist at least in Dubai.
Look for Berdych to face Sergiy Stakhovsky in that quarterfinal, the Ukrainian is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, he opens with Lukas Rosol, who he just dispatched in Marseille (the Czech is just 1-7 over his last 8 matches dating back to last season), and then will face Denis Istomin or Ernests Gulbis. Both players are in awful form, Istomin is just 2-6 on the year, with three straight losses, while Gulbis is yet to win a match this season (0-4), with no sets won in his previous two losses against Dominic Thiem and Jeremy Chardy. Given Gulbis is the moodier player compared to Istomin, I have Istomin through, and then Stako to take him out comfortably. Stako has just one opening round loss this year, and he made the quarters in Rotterdam and the semis in Marseille consecutively, notably knocking off Stan Wawrinka in Marseille. Stako is 2-2 on a hard court against Istomin, but form favors him strongly. Given Berdych has a higher ranking, more accomplishments, a 3-0 h2h, and a better skillset than Stako, look for a Djokovic vs. Berdych semifinal this week.
Bottom Half:
Since 2009, only Djokovic, and Roger Federer, a six time Dubai champion, and the defending champion, have won the title here in the UAE. Federer will open his quest to repeat as champion against struggling veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who is a shell of his old self. Federer is an incredible 16-0 against the Russian over his career, and Youzhny is just 2-5 over his last seven matches dating back to last year. Federer could be tested a bit more against the Garcia-Lopez/Verdasco winner. If it’s GGL, as I have in my bracket, Federer is 3-0 against him, and should be able to make it 4-0 in reaching the quarterfinals. Federer is 5-0 against Verdasco if that is his opponent, and would make it 6-0.
Look for Seppi/Gasquet in the quarters for Federer, Roberto Bautista Agut is also an option here. RBA opens with Dominic Thiem, who he has already beaten twice this season, including last week in Marseille where he reached the semis. This is a difficult section to predict, RBA is 1-0 against both Seppi and Gasquet, but I feel like both of those players are outperforming the Spaniard right now and thusly I have Gasquet in the quarterfinals of my own bracket, with any of those 3 players having a case to make it that far. Gasquet has never beaten Federer on a hard court (0-7 including a Dubai loss) so Fed should reach the semis. If Seppi is his quarterfinal opponent, that would of course be a reprisal of the Italian’s shocking victory in Melbourne, but even still I would pick Federer to get his revenge and reach the semis.
Andy Murray, a one time finalist in Dubai who has played well thus far this season, opens with Gilles Muller, another in-form unseeded player to watch. Murray is 1-0 against Muller who reached the second week in Melbourne, and has an ATP semi and two ATP quarterfinals already on his resume this year. Murray, the AO finalist, most recently made the quarters in Rotterdam where he was upset by Gilles Simon. After Muller tests Murray, expect him to also take out Joao Sousa, who faces wild card James McGee in the first round. The journeyman McGee is an odd wild card selection, but all the same Murray is 4-0 against Sousa including a win this year at the Australian Open. Sousa has lost three straight matches though he has an ATP semifinal on his resume this year (Montpellier).
Murray could face Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters, after Goffin, it would be Malek Jaziri or Philipp Kohlschreiber for him in round 2. Jaziri tends to peak for these events in the Arab world but after a good showing at the Australian Open he’s in terrible form with three straight losses, most recently in Delray at the hands of Bernard Tomic. Kohlschreiber has lost two straight and is just 2-5 on the season, but even still I favor him over Jaziri. That said Baghdatis is playing much better than Kohli right now and has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts, pointing to the Cypriot to reach the quarters.The aggressive Baghdatis has two previous hard court wins against Murray, who has won their last two hard court meetings for a 2-2 overall hard court h2h, and they almost always tend to play competitive contests, especially on fast surfaces, but Murray is likely to have more left in the tank these days and thus I have him into the semifinals.
The Cypriot appears to be motivated, fitter, and striking the ball much better in 2015, having experienced a bit of a career resurgence as of late when many thought he was near retirement. In my mind he’s the favorite to at minimum reach the quarterfinals, and Murray is beatable, as he’s proven before, so semis are a possible outcome for him this week, which would be remarkable given he entered this top heavy, 500 level event as a wild card.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic has never lost to Berdych on a hard court, in a ton of meetings, including the 2013 Dubai final, and with that in mind, I don’t see any reason to pick against a Djokovic vs. Federer Dubai final this week given prior history and present form.
Federer has won three straight hard court meetings against Murray and he tends to play exceptionally well in Dubai, giving him the slight edge to reach the final this week.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai, and their last Dubai meeting in 3 sets last year, but Djokovic played tremendous in Melbourne, and I still have to pick him on an outdoor hard court almost every time. This matchup could go either way, both players know each other well, and know how to beat the other, so it’s a really difficult prediction all the same, with my gut favoring the world number 1.
Argentina Open presented by Buenos Aires Ciudad
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 23-March 1, 2015
Prize Money: $500,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: Tommy Robredo (18)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Fabio Fognini (28)
For a 250 event, with a pair of 500s also on the calendar the same week, Buenos Aires is actually quite solid, with Nadal headlining and a host of clay courters joining him on the undercard. Everyone in the field this week has taken part in one or more previous Golden Swing events (Quito, Sao Paulo or Rio)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Pablo Andujar vs. Nicolas Almagro
Andujar is a seed, but Almagro is 3-0 in the h2h, including 2-0 on clay. Almagro has gone 2-2 on the Golden swing thus far with both of his losses coming in three setters against Pablo Cuevas. Andujar is 1-2, and isn’t playing that well right now, with that in mind the 2011 BA champ Almagro should advance to round 2 with a win in this all-Spanish encounter.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, a semifinalist in Rio, will face Albert Montanes or a qualifier in round 1. Nadal is 5-0 against Montanes with all meetings coming on clay, and his veteran Spanish counterpart has never taken a set against him. Next for Nadal is likely to be the winner of Federico Delbonis vs. Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci, who just lost to Nadal in Rio, will face Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. The h2h is 1-1 and both players have lost three straight matches, but I give Bellucci, the more skilled player, the slighest of edges in that one. Delbonis has Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, he lost an incredible quarterfinal match against Fabio Fognini in Rio, saving more than a half dozen match points before falling in a third set tiebreak. Before that, Delbonis was struggling, and likewise PCB has been up and down, he beat Carlos Berlocq, before losing to Nadal in Rio. I have Delbonis as a quarterfinalist yet again this week, given the home soil advantage, and then Nadal should take him out to reach the semis. The h2h between Delbonis and Bellucci is 3-2 in favor of Delbonis with all meetings coming on clay, and all of them being close encounters. Nadal is 1-0 against Delbonis with that win coming on clay in 2013.
Rio finalist Fabio Fognini, who found some of his best form in months to reach the final there, notably upsetting Nadal, will open with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Carlos Berlocq. I have Fognini beating Berlocq in round 2, after Berlocq wins the all Argentina round 1 battle. Fognini had started the season just 1-3, but as mentioned he put much more effort into his tennis in Rio, and though unpredictable, has be favored to reach the quarterfinals, though fatigue may factor in.
Jiri Vesely, the 6 seed, has a nice chance at a run this week, he opens with Blaz Rola, who has just two wins on the season (though on of them came in an upset of Leo Mayer last week in Rio), and then would face a qualifier in round 2. Vesely is 0-3 since winning the Auckland title, but he pushed Fognini to 3 sets in Rio, and his other golden swing loss was to Pablo Cuevas, who ended up taking the title in Sao Paulo, both of those losses coming in 3 sets. Vesely, though mentally fragile, is playing better than recent results would suggest, and presuming his fitness is ok, I actually have him winning that rematch with Fognini in the quarters. It was a low quality, and up and down encounter when they played last week in Rio, and by this point, Fognini should be fatigued from all the tennis he’s had to play over the past week and a half, with that in mind, the advantage swings to Vesely to reach the semis. Don’t count a qualifier out here either.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, the 2009 champion, will face Jarkko Nieminen or Renzo Olivo, a wild card, in round 2. The veteran Nieminen isn’t that impressive on clay right now, while Olivo is actually 8-2 over his last 10 matches, a mix of Quito qualies, and the Santo Domingo challenger. With a retirement, and a loss to eventual champ Victor Estrella, the only two losses Olivo has had in weeks, I have him notching an upset on home soil to setup a meeting with Robredo. Olivo shockingly upset Robredo in Bastad last year on clay, and Robredo has been in poor form all season, with just a 1-2 record on the year, with a retirement, and a loss to the much lower ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer in Rio. With that in mind, I’m backing Olivo to reach the quarterfinals with a pair of upsets over ATP veterans, on home soil in BA.
Olivo/Robredo are most likely to meet the Andujar/Almagro winner in the quarters, I presume Almagro will be able to defeat wild card Horacio Zeballos or Albert Ramos in round 2. Ramos should beat Zeballos, he’s 1-2 on the Golden Swing thus far, but Almagro is the most talented player of the bunch and should beat Olivo in the quarters to reach the semis in what would be a good week for him.
Pablo Cuevas opens with Guido Andreozzi or a qualifier, Andreozzi, a wild card, has been plying his trade on hard courts, rather than clay this year, and the qualifier will have a good chance, all the same Cuevas, the Sao Paulo champ, and a quarterfinalist in Rio who pushed Nadal to 3 sets, should have no trouble reaching the quarters given his good form. In another all-Argentine battle, Juan Monaco (2-1 clay court h2h) should have enough ability to take out Maximo Gonzalez, who hasn’t won an ATP main draw match in a while. Monaco, a Rio quarterfinalist should face the top ranked Argentine Leo Mayer in round 2. Mayer retired in his last match and is just 1-2 on the Golden Swing, but I still see him beating the veteran French journeyman Stephane Robert, who hasn’t played on clay since the French Open last year. Monaco and Mayer have never met on clay, but with Monaco in slightly better form, I have Pico into the quarters, and then Cuevas beating him for a spot in the semis. Monaco is 5-0 on clay against Cuevas, but they haven’t played since 2011, and Cuevas has been a far superior player as of late.
The unseeded Nicolas Almagro is also a dark horse, but the home player Olivo could have the most eye catching week in Buenos Aires. As mentioned if the in-form wild card can score upset wins over Nieminen, and Robredo, he would be in the quarters, and should be find a way to beat Almagro or another player, he would find himself in his first ever ATP semifinal this week, which I’m sure the home crowd would appreciate.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Vesely
Cuevas d. Almagro
Even with Nadal not playing top 5 quality tennis right now, I don’t see anyone in the field being able to take him out before the final, meanwhile Cuevas has dominated Almagro as of late, and should also be able to battle his way to the final this week
Final: Nadal d. Cuevas
He didn’t win Rio, but you still have to pick Nadal as the champion for almost every clay court tournament in which he is a participant. The king of clay has struggled thus far this season, but you have to feel failure to reach a final yet this year, will further motivate him to cap off the Golden Swing with good vibes, and an ATP title. Nadal just beat my favored finalist Cuevas last week in Rio in 3 sets, and his level should be good enough to take this 250 title as the top seed.
2015 ATP Sydney and Auckland Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The week before the Aussie Open, the final ATP tuneups will take place at 250 level events in Sydney and Auckland, and both hard court tournaments are up for grabs with a lot of rising players and second tier names gunning for ATP ranking points and a coveted ATP title, additionally, Nick Kyrgios, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nicolas Almagro, Ernests Gulbis, and more are making their 2015 debuts.
ATP Sydney
2015 ATP Sydney Preview
Apia International Sydney
ATP World Tour 250*
Sydney, Australia
January 12-January 17, 2015
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses) 1: Fabio Fognini (19)
2: David Goffin (22)
3: Philipp Kohlschreiber (24)
4: Julien Benneteau (25)
A very balanced field in Sydney this week, none of the seeds are super formidable, so the unseeded players have great chances at putting up good results.
Juan Martin Del Potro is making (yet another) long awaited return in Sydney, hoping that his wrists and all his over physical ailments are sorted out as he begins his effort to return to the top 10 and become a force on the ATP tour again. The tennis world has missed the tower of Tandil, and he has a winnable opening match against Sergiy Stakhovsky, Stako was crushed by Novak Djokovic after beating a no name wild card in Doha, and though he has had flashes of playing above his ranking, he’s a journeyman. It’s also worth noting JMDP is the defending champion, not that that really means much right now. This is an incredibly difficult match to predict but I have Del Po winning on a coin flip.
(6)Pablo Cuevas vs. Nicolas Almagro
Nicolas Almagro is another top player making his return from injury this week, he hasn’t played since the clay court season last year and he opens with dirtballer Pablo Cuevas, who is currently on a nine match win streak, though all those wins came on clay. Almagro got a couple of matches in at the Abu Dhabi exo, so he won’t be entirely rusty, and given this is hard courts, I have him advancing after shaking off some rust.
Andreas Seppi vs. Vasek Pospisil
Seppi found form and snuck into the semis in Doha, though he didn’t face any highly ranked opponents there while Pospisil is making his 2015 debut in Sydney. He went 19-23 in 2014 with an ATP semi and an ATP final as his best results. That said he spent part of the season hampered by a back injury, and his form picked up late in the year, he’s clearly a capable talent, and I feel Seppi may be somewhat fatigued going into this match, with that in mind, I have Pospisil evening up the h2h at 2-2 and winning this match. The hard courts in Sydney should suit the Canadian.
Nick Kyrgios vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Breakthrough star Nick Kyrgios will be making his home soil debut in Sydney against Hopman cup champion Jerzy Janowicz in a highly anticipated contest. Kyrgios has been hampered by a lingering shoulder injury that forced him to skip the Hopman cup, and his physical condition has question marks here, but that said the crowd will be behind him, and he always seems to play his best tennis when the bright lights are on. Kyrgios is favored and the Wimbledon quarterfinalist will have every chance of getting a win. That said, Janowicz is trying to reboot his results in 2015, after a relatively poor 2014, and he won’t roll over lightly, this is a hard match to pick, but I’m favoring the experienced Janowicz, as Kyrgios will likely need more time to adjust than he will.
Top seed Fabio Fognini is in awful form, he clowned around yet again in the Hopman Cup, and he finished 2014 in a slump as well. I have Fognini crashing out against Stakhovsky/Del Potro in his first match, and potentially we could see a Del Potro vs. Almagro quarterfinal in a battle of players returning to the tour. Standing in Almagro’s way, assuming he beats Cuevas, is a qualifier or Denis Istomin, Istomin didn’t do anything special in Doha as he was crushed by Tomas Berdych, but he is 3-0 in his career against Almagro, and that with the rust factor perhaps makes him a slight favorite to reach the quarters and meet Del Potro/Stakhovsky/Fognini. Given the rust factor I have Istomin through to the semis over Del Potro, but it’s anyone guess who will make the semis quite honestly.
Julian Benneteau fell to Thanasi Kokkinakis in the opening round of Brisbane, his poor showing means it appears he is likely to go against the Seppi/Pospisil winner, and that’s the result I have as well. Kyrgios/Janowicz are likely to await Pospisil/Seppi in the quarterfinals, Benjamin Becker, a grinder who fell to Simone Bolelli in Doha, is also in this section and opens with Leo Mayer, who much prefers clay. I have Pospisil over Janowicz in the quarterfinals in this section, JJ may be somewhat fatigued from the Hopman and they have never met before, but again this a very hard section to predict this early in the season with so few matches to judge players by.
Chennai semifinalist David Goffin has a great chance this week to do well, but he’ll need to defeat the dangerous shotmaker Simone Bolelli in round 2, assuming Bolelli defeats the struggling Marinko Matosevic in round 1. If Goffin beats Bolelli/Matosevic, Martin Klizan is likely to await in the quarters. Goffin has one h2h victory against Klizan at a challenger and the Slovak made the quarters in Brisbane, with wins over Alex Dolgopolov and Jurgen Melzer before losing to Grigor Dimitrov. Klizan-Goffin should be a great match as long as Klizan beats a qualifier and Pablo Andujar/Qualifier. It’s hard to predict but I have a hunch Klizan will overpower Goffin and reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, who lost his opening match in Doha, will open with former Sydney champ Bernard Tomic or a qualifier, Tomic beat Sam Querrey and Thanasi Kokkinakis in Brisbane and made the quarterfinals, and with Kohli out of form, while Tomic will be motivated on home soil, the Aussie should advance to the quarters. He’s likely to face a big server at that stage, Gilles Muller, a Chennai quarterfinalist, faces Sam Groth, a Brisbane quarterfinalist, in the opening round, expect a lot of aces in that one and I have Muller facing Sam Querrey in round 2. Querrey is 3-1 in his career against his first round opponent Jeremy Chardy and is looking to bounce back from an early loss in Brisbane. Chardy lost to Grigor Dimitrov in round 2 of Brisbane. I have Muller over Querrey for a spot in the quarters, and then Tomic reaching the semis by defeating Muller.
Dark Horse: Vasek Pospisil
I have the Canadian number two taking the title this week, given how up in the air this tournament is. He has basically no points to defend after the Australian Open, until the Fall, given he struggled at that point last season, and will be looking to pad his ranking at events like this. I feel he’s due for his maiden ATP title.
Predictions
Semis: Pospisil d. Istomin
Klizan d. Tomic
Istomin has a h2h win against Vashy but I feel the Canadian is a better player right now, Klizan beat Tomic last year on clay, and again I feel like his form is better than the Aussie.
Heineken Open
ATP World Tour 250
Auckland, New Zealand
January 12-January 17, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
*1: David Ferrer (10) 2: Ernests Gulbis (13) 3: Roberto Bautista Agut (15) 4: Kevin Anderson (16)
*5: Tommy Robredo (17)
*Ferrer withdrew and Robredo takes over his seedline as the technical five but the proper number 1 seed.
Auckland had a strong field lined up but Doha champ Ferrer, along with defending champ John Isner, and the exciting Gael Monfils all pulled out before the start of the tournament, making this week a rather slim week on the ATP tour in terms of big names. Still, Auckland has plenty of second tier talent in the tournament field.
A pair of rising players will duel under the Auckland sun in this one. Thiem is opening his 2015 season, which will be his first as a regular top 40 ATP player, in New Zealand, while Struff comes off recording a solid victory over Philipp Kohlschreiber in Doha. He fell to Dustin Brown in the next round, which to some extent shows his inconsistency but the talent is there for both players in this matchup they just need to put it all together to be successful. Thiem is favored but Struff will have his chance, and this matchup is harder to predict than many expect, that said I favor Thiem in 3 sets.
Top Half:
Tommy Robredo now headlines the top of the draw, the Spaniard should face limited opposition in route to the quarterfinals, as his draw features a qualifier or Kiwi wildcard Michael Venus in round 2, and then most likely Rendy Lu, a quarterfinalist in Chennai, in the quarters. Lu opens with Juan Monaco, who won the doubles title in Doha with Nadal but has struggled mightily in singles for quite a while, and then is slated to face the winner of Albert Ramos/Paolo Lorenzi, who would both prefer to be playing on clay. Ramos can occasionally put together a decent showing but Lu should get through to the quarters as well, as he looks to defend his final points from last year. Robredo is 3-1 against Lu in his career and beat him last year but I’m going with Lu to make the semis in an upset, he has played well in Auckland before, he will clearly be motivated, and he has form going in, unlike Robredo who made three ATP finals last year, but failed to win one.
Roberto Bautista Agut, a semifinalist in Chennai, opens with Adrian Mannarino or Federico Delbonis in round 2, given Mannarino is the more comfortable hard court player and comes off a challenger semifinal showing on hard courts, he should get to round 2, but RBA is superior in that matchup and the Spaniard is on track for the quarterfinals. In the quarters, Santiago Giraldo is his most likely opponent, Santi had a great season by his normal standards in 2014 as he compiled a 32-27 overall record with an ATP final, three semis and a Masters quarterfinal as his best results. The shotmaking Colombian will face a qualifier, then a qualifier or Kiwi wild card Jose Statham in round 2. RBA beat Giraldo twice last year in straight sets, and he most likely will do so again, but if this matchup comes to fruition it will still be worth watching given the talented shotmaking and aggressive approaches of both players.
Bottom Half:
Ernests Gulbis opens his 2015 season in Auckland, the charismatic Latvian was 41-21 in 2014 with two ATP titles and a grand slam semi at the French as his best results, he performed well across surfaces, and that is why he’s now a regular top 15 player. Gulbis shouldn’t drop a set before the quarterfinals given his opposition is a qualifier or Thomaz Bellucci, a formerly top player who much prefers clay and similar to Monaco hasn’t put up a big result for quite some time now. His opposition in the quarters is most likely to be Donald Young or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, GGL beat Young twice last year, and he comes off a decent run of form as he won a pair of matches and reached the quarters in Chennai. Garcia-Lopez will need to beat young Argentine dirtballer Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, and Young has a qualifier as his round one opposition. Young was 18-21 at the ATP level last year with one ATP semi as his best result. I see a Gulbis vs. Garcia-Lopez quarterfinal with Gulbis advancing. The h2h favors Ernie 2-1 but they haven’t met since 2013.
Kevin Anderson appears to be struggling as he was dumped by qualifier Lukasz Kubot in his opening match in Brisbane. He will face the Struff/Thiem winner, and if it is Thiem, he does have a 2-0 h2h with both matches taking place last season working in his favor. As a result, even though I don’t feel particularly confident I have Anderson through the quarters, with Thiem/Struff also having a great shot at posting the same result. The section above this one is the best in the draw, wild card Borna Coric, who beat Robin Haase in Chennai, will face Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, and I have the youngster earning another ATP win given PCB much prefers clay. Steve Johnson, who played Kei Nishikori tough in Brisbane and also won a match there, will face off with Portugese number one Joao Sousa, the American should advance and face off with Coric in a battle of rising young players. Coric should test Johnson, but I feel he’s more battle tested, and his experience at the ATP level will win him the day, even if Coric has more natural talent and potential. This is a tough section with a lot of rising talent (Thiem/Struff/Johnson/Coric), and in my own bracket I have Johnson over Anderson (1-1 h2h in 2014) to reach the semifinals.
Anyone from that section full of rising talent I previewed above can be a dark horse this week, with the non-seeded Thiem, similar to the non-seeded Coric, getting the actual designation this week. I’m going with Thiem because he has more experience than Coric and he’s done well in ATP tournaments before (finalist in Kitzbuhel). If he can get past Struff, and reverse his poor h2h record against Anderson, which is entirely doable, he will have a winnable quarterfinal with Johnson or Coric, and a potential semifinal with his former mentor Gulbis. Ernie and Dominic know each other well and share coaching teams, so it would almost be a battle of brotherly love, and given Gulbis can be inconsistent, that’s also a winnable match in a very open Auckland draw.
Predictions
Semis: Bautista Agut d. Lu
Johnson d. Gulbis
RBA just beat Lu in a quality quarterfinal contest in Chennai, and the result should be the same (I also favor him against Robredo). Gulbis would still likely be favored to make the final, but Johnson is 2-0 in his career against him with both wins coming on hard court. The American seems very motivated and has a great chance to at least reach his first ATP final, and potentially win his first ATP title this week in Auckland.
Final: Bautista Agut d. Johnson
RBA beat Johnson three times last year, and that’s why I have him down as the winner this week, there are at least six different players who could take the title this week depending on form and motivation and Bautista is my selection.
Tennis Atlantic 