Thursday at the Estoril Open saw the quarterfinal lineup be completed, with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Carballes Baena and Nicolas Jarry booking their place in the last 8. The first match of the day pitted Cameron Norrie and Carballes Baena, with the Spaniard winning a titanic battle that lasted well over 3 hours in the 3rd set tiebreak. Norrie had plenty of chances to win the match, including serving for the match and 3 consecutive match points on Baena’s serve, but he couldn’t finish it off and the Spaniard that will face off against the ever rising Tsitsipas tomorrow.
Tsitsipas continued his fantastic clay run with another top 10 win, this time over Kevin Anderson. While Anderson is hardly top 10-level on this surface, it’s still another impressive win for the Greek youngster after making the final last week in Barcelona. Tsitsipas wasn’t broken at all in this match.
The night session featured two straight set matches, first a quite straightforward win for last year’s champion Carreno Busta over Kicker and then a real tussle between Jarry and Ojeda. Jarry won in 2 sets, but he had to come back from 1-5 down in the second set tiebreak to get it done in what was a very tight contest for the most part. Carreno Busta and Jarry will face each other in the quarterfinals, with the Spaniard emerging as a clear favorite.
Going into the quarterfinals on Friday, a lot of Portuguese fans are hopeful of finally having a Portuguese champion at the tournament after Frederico Gil barely missed out on the chance back in 2010. João Sousa is still alive (somehow given how close he was to losing to Pedro Sousa) and looking at the draw he seems to have as good a chance as anyone to win it all. His match against Kyle Edmund, semifinalist in Australia, will no doubt be the most eagerly awaited one at Estoril tomorrow for the home fans.
The remaining quarterfinal will be played between Tiafoe and Bolelli, with Tiafoe the favorite, in what will on paper be a very evenly matched contest.
2018 ATP Rio Preview and Predictions: Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem Lead the Field Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Rio Open is the highlight of the Golden Swing, it’s a 500 level tournament on clay in Brazil. Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem lead the field. Here is your full preview with predictions.
Top Half:
Marin Cilic returns to the ATP Tour after reaching the Australian Open final in his last outing. Cilic will begin against Carlos Berlocq, Gael Monfils/Horacio Zeballos will follow. Monfils has played the full golden swing but has yet to reach a final. Against Cilic he should be an underdog in an engaging round 2 matchup.
Argentines Diego Schwartzman and Federico Delbonis played well on home clay. Delbonis should beat Jiri Vesely, Schwartzman should beat Casper Ruud. Delbonis over Schwartzman is my pick in round 2, with Cilic beating Delbonis in the quarters.
Quito finalist Albert Ramos faces Rogerio Dutra Silva in the opening round. Nicolas Jarry and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez both reached quarters in Buenos Aires, Jarry is my pick in that matchup, with Ramos advancing to the quarters. Guido Pella has had strong start to 2018, reaching quarters or better in both of his ATP outings. He’ll face French young gun Corentin Moutet in round 1. Pablo Cuevas faces Thiago Monteiro in round 1, I’ll go with Monteiro to win in an upset, with Pella reaching the quarters and falling to Ramos at that stage.
Dominic Thiem won Buenos Aires and starts in Rio against Dusan Lajovic. Thiem should defeat Gerald Melzer/Pablo Andujar in the second round. I’ll back Fernando Verdasco to edge past Leonardo Mayer and Victor Estrella/Nicolas Kicker in round 2. Thiem over Verdasco is the smart pick in the quarters.
Fabio Fognini should beat home player Thomaz Bellucci in round 1. Pablo Carreno Busta is struggling and opens with Marco Cecchinato. I’ll back Buenos Aires finalist Aljaz Bedene to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer. PCB should beat a tired Bedene. Roberto Carballes Baena, the Quito champion, is my dark horse pick. RCB should defeat Tennys Sandgren, then Fognini/Bellucci before upsetting PCB in the quarters.
Semis
Cilic d. Ramos-Vinolas
Thiem d. Carballes Baena
There is no particular reason why Cilic and Thiem won’t have a great week. Both are in solid form and good on clay. Thiem in his current form should be the favorite to take the title, though fatigue could be a factor.
Qualifier Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Albert Ramos in a three set tilt 6-3 4-6 6-4 to capture his maiden ATP title on the clay of Quito, Ecuador. Carballes Baena defeated Federico Gaio, Paolo Lorenzi, Nicolas Jarry, and Andrej Martin after qualifying, dropping sets in his final three matches but prevailing each time.
His countryman Ramos, the more experienced of the finalists, defeated Roberto Quiroz, Gerald Melzer, and Thiago Monteiro, his win over Monteiro coming in three sets.
Jarry and Hans Podlipnik-Castillo, both hailing from Chile, defeated Austin Krajicek and Jackson Withrow in the doubles final.
Lucas Pouille, who captured a career high three ATP titles in 2017, captured his first of 2018, 7-6 6-4 over countryman Richard Gasquet. Pouille benefited from a retirement in the semifinals when trailing against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as Tsonga injured his knee up a set and 5-5 in set 2. Carlos Taberner and Benoit Paire both lost to Pouille in straight sets.
Gasquet showed good form yet again on home courts, he beat Daniil Medvedev, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Damir Dzumhur and David Goffin. The wins over Herbert and Goffin coming in three sets.
British brothers Ken and Neal Skupski defeated Hugo Nys and Ben Mclachlan in the doubles final.
Both Mirza Basic and Marius Copil had a shot at their maiden ATP title, and Basic came out ahead. The Bosnian edged Copil 7-6 6-7 6-4 in the final, after upsetting both Philipp Kohlschreiber and Stan Wawrinka to reach the final. Basic, a qualifier, also defeated Florian Mayer and Max Marterer in the main draw. Basic was on the ropes in his opening round qualifying match against local player Alexander Lazov, and dropped a set against Marterer as well, but improved throughout the entirety of the week. He was rock solid on serve against Wawrinka and finally got the upper hand.
Copil defeated Robin Haase, Blaz Kavcic, Gilles Muller, and Jozef Kovalik to reach the final, not dropping a set in those four victories.
Haase and Matwe Middelkoop will head into a home tournament in Rotterdam with momentum after capturing the doubles final over Nikola Mektic and Alexander Peya. It’s their second title of 2018.
2015 Roland Garros Men’s Qualifying Preview and Predictions Chris de Waard, Tennis Atlantic
The start of the Roland Garros men’s main draw is nearing, but first we will have 128 players competing in the qualifying draw, who will be battling it out for sixteen coveted spots in that main draw.
2015 RG Men’s Qualies Predictions
Top 16 seeds (of 32 total)
1: Hyeon Chung
2: Alexander Zverev
3: Facundo Bagnis
4: Blaz Rola
5: Dustin Brown
6: Luca Vanni
7: Norbert Gombos
8: James Ward
9: Alejandro Gonzalez
10: Kimmer Coppejans
11: Alejandro Falla
12: Adrian Menendez-Maceiras
13: Guido Pella
14: Aleksandr Nedovyesov
15: Tobias Kamke
16: Austin Krajicek
First round match-ups to watch:
(4) Blaz Rola – Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo
Ramirez Hidalgo is 37, but has only improved since the start of this year. Almost out of the top 250 in February, he now is ranked inside of the top 200 again after two semi-finals and two quarterfinals on the Challenger circuit. He is also exactly the type of player Rola might struggle with at this moment. Rola is coming off bad losses against world #515 Rogerio Dutra Silva and #250 Giovanni Lapentti in his last two tournaments.
This is the biggest chance of one of the highest seeds getting knocked out. Brown has been struggling the entire year, first one the main tour and recently even at the Challengers. Daniel knew a rocky start to the year, changing his schedule in an attempt to become more capable on hardcourts, but ever since switching back to clay his results have improved, with the highlight being his title at Vercelli last month.
(11) Alejandro Falla – Lamine Ouahab
Ouahab very nearly made the cut and it will be interesting to see how he will perform here. He is obviously infamous for only bringing his best tennis when he plays in Morocco, repeating that this year with three Futures titles, a Challenger title and a quarterfinal at the ATP 250 of Casablanca, where he beat world #24 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the second round.
(14) Aleksandr Nedovyesov – Yuki Bhambri
An unfortunate draw for Nedovyesov, drawing a Bhambri who is arguably playing the best tennis of his career, after struggling with injury for a long time. Bhambri comes off a clay final in Samarkand, where he lost to Teymuraz Gabashvili.
Edmund has shown good consistency on clay in recent times, reaching three Challenger quarterfinals in a row, but it’s clear that it’s not his best surface. This is not the case for Melzer, who just comes off a dream run at the ATP 250 event of Munich, where he beat #42 Pablo Andujar (by retirement), #44 Dominic Thiem and took a set off #26 Philipp Kohlschreiber in the semi-final.
First quarter
18-year-old top seed Hyeon Chung is currently ranked #69 and came into the qualifying event after missing the entry deadline due to a misunderstanding from the Korean tennis association, with the Roland Garros organization making a very unique exception in handing him a wildcard. Naturally, Chung is the big favorite to qualify, with perhaps Nikoloz Basilashvili being the only player that can threaten him on a good day.
The second section knows a similarly big favorite in Alexander Zverev, also 18. Up until recently this might not have been the case due to Zverev’s results being seriously lacking, but recently he has really picked up his game. This saw him winning the Heilbronn Challenger and entering the top 100 last week. He faces Horacio Zeballos in the first round, who is a shadow of his former self and lost 6-4 6-2 to Zverev in the first round last week. The other players in this section don’t have clay as their favorite surface and perhaps Marius Copil is the only one who can threaten Zverev, in the final qualifying round.
Third seed Facundo Bagnis has been playing on green clay in the United States in the lead-up to Roland Garros, with very mixed results. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him go out against one of Renzo Olivo, Andrea Arnaboldi or Denis Kudla in the final qualifying round. Arnaboldi and Kudla face off in a very interesting first round clash, in which Arnaboldi has to be marked the slight favorite, despite Kudla being the seeded player (#30).
The fourth quarter is a highly interesting one, with a bunch of players who could go through. As said, Rola and Ramirez Hidalgo face off in the first round, but Roberto Carballes Baena, Elias Ymer and Thiemo de Bakker are placed in this section as well and might be more likely than fourth seed Rola to go through, with De Bakker coming off a final in Bordeaux last week. Although the Dutchman is highly inconsistent and might well return to mediocrity this week. Carballes Baena plays Peter Gojowczyk in the first round, but the German is just coming back from a lengthy injury lay-off and it’s far from certain if he is healthy enough to be a factor here. Carballes Baena might just have the consistent game to come through this section.
To qualify from this quarter: (1) Chung, (2) Zverev, Arnaboldi and Carballes Baena
Second quarter
As mentioned, fifth seed Brown has a horror draw against Daniel, with the Japanese clay court specialist actually being the slight favorite in their match. The main draw spot will highly likely be reached by someone in the top section, with Marton Fucsovics also being in the mix. The bottom section is headed by Michal Przysiezny and is unlikely to produce someone who can threaten the three candidates from the top half.
Sixth seed Luca Vanni has been one of the revelations this season, making a breakthrough out of virtually nowhere at Sao Paulo, where he reached the final and almost took down the title, but eventually fell to Pablo Cuevas after a long battle. He has a tricky opening round against Adrian Ungur, but should come through and reach the main draw after beating the highly unpredictable Andrey Golubev in the final qualifying round.
Seventh seed Norbert Gombos heads a section that could go either way. Outside of him, Yoshihito Nishioka and Guilherme Clezar all have a fair shot at qualifying as well. #23 seed Farrukh Dustov is in atrocious form at the moment and is unlikely to play a role. Given that Gombos and Clezar aren’t in the best form of their lives either, this might be a golden opportunity for 19-year-old Nishioka to come through.
The eighth section is very hard to predict, with a wide variety of players having a shot at going through. James Ward and James McGee don’t have clay as their best surface, with with highly unpredictable players like Christian Lindell, Christian Garin and Daniel Munoz-De La Nava being their competition, being solid might just prove to be enough.
To qualify from this quarter: Daniel, (6) Vanni, Nishioka and (28) Munoz-De La Nava
Third quarter
Ninth seed Alejandro Gonzalez heads this section, but he comes off a demolition job in the first qualifying round of Rome, where he lost 6-2 6-0 to Thomaz Bellucci. The other seed here, Albert Montanes, seems to be heading towards retirement, which makes this an interesting opportunity for Andre Ghem or Antonio Veic, who face off in the first round. With Ghem being the more consistent of the two, this might be a golden opportunity for the 32-year-old to qualify for his first Roland Garros, although Gonzalez will still be the favorite to go through.
Tenth seed Kimmer Coppejans is hard to ignore in the next section, playing the tennis of his life. Last month he reached two Challenger finals on clay, winning one of them and it’s unlikely that anyone in his section will trouble him. Radu Albot might come close, but he is more at home on hardcourts.
As mentioned, eleventh seed Alejandro Falla faces off against cult hero Lamine Ouahab in the first round. If we pretend that Ouahab is a normal player this is a draw from heaven for him, if he beats Falla he is projected to play Niels Desein/Maxime Authom and Rui Machado/Alexander Kudryavtsev, but since Roland Garros isn’t played in Morocco it’s just as likely he will lose 6-2 6-2 to Falla. Nevertheless, given that this section has no other stand-out favorite, I might as well let my hopes guide me and predict him to go through.
Closing this quarter is a section headed by Adrian Menendez-Maceiras, the 29-year-old Spaniard who is making an unexpected rise and is playing the tennis of his life, nearing the top 100. Based on recent form I have to go with Gerald Melzer, however, who is also a lot more at home on clay than Menendez-Maceiras. Nicolas Jarry, Potito Starace and Kyle Edmund are dangerous outsiders in this section.
To qualify from this quarter: (9) Gonzalez, (10) Coppejans, Ouahab and Melzer
Fourth quarter
Thirteenth seed Guido Pella has been in more than excellent form, taking down titles in San Luis Potosi and Sao Paulo, plus reaching a final and semi-final in Heilbronn and Santos, making him the big favorite to advance from this section. Pella has an interesting rivalry with Facundo Arguello, the other seed here and the only one who could potentially threaten him, with their head to head being 3-3. They have met twice this year, remarkably with Pella taking the first meeting 6-4 6-3 and Arguello the second one 6-2 6-3. Nevertheless, Pella should be marked the favorite.
The next section might go between two unseeded players, Yuki Bhambri and Jason Kubler, with Bhambri having the edge. Bhambri is severely underranked after coming back from injury, which he showed by reaching the Samarkand final last week. He is a favorite against fourteenth seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov in the first round and against the other players in this section as well, which includes Jurgen Zopp and Matthias Bachinger.
Fifteenth seed Tobias Kamke heads the by far weakest section of this draw, which also includes Evgeny Donskoy, Iliya Marchenko and Somdev Devvarman. Not only is Kamke on an eleven-match losing streak, none of the other players is strong on clay. Normally Pere Riba would be the favorite here, but he hasn’t played all year due to injury and is far from certain to be match fit. No matter who goes through, he will likely be a very easy opponent in the first round of the main draw.
The final section should be a prey for Marco Cecchinato, who won the Turin Challenger two weeks ago and is in excellent form. He has a very favorable draw against players who don’t favor clay, with the only competition perhaps coming in the final qualifying round, where he is projected to face Austin Krajicek or Filippo Volandri, both of whom will be a solid underdog against Cecchinato.
Coric, Haase, and Muller advance to round 2 @EstorilOpen Monday Manuel Traquete for Tennis Atlantic
Monday at the Estoril Open saw the last round of qualifying being played, as well as the beginning of the singles main draw.
The last of qualifying brought a lot of disappointment to the Portuguese players and fans as both Pedro Sousa and Frederico Gil lost in very close matches, faltering in the deciding stages. Sousa led in both sets against 22yo Constant Lestienne, but his terrible play on big points – including no points won on serve in the deciding set tiebreak – cost him dearly and it’s the Frenchman who advanced to the main draw, where he will face Pablo Carreno Busta on Tuesday afternoon.
Lestienne d. P. Sousa 7-5 7-6(3)
As for the 2010 finalist of this event, Gil, he won the first set and was up 4-2 in the decider before getting broken back and then getting broken from 40-15 up in the last game to give away the match in what turned out to be another disappointment result in his attempt to return to the level he once reached before illness derailed him. His conqueror, Martin Fischer, will be facing Albert Montanes in round 1 of the main draw.
First seed Kenny de Schepper and fourth seed Roberto Carballes Baena secured very comfortable, one-sided wins and advanced to the main draw as well; De Schepper will open up against home favorite Gastão Elias, who reached the quarterfinals of this event in 2013 and 2014, while Carballes Baena will take on his countryman and newly crowned Bucharest champion Guillermo Garcia Lopez.
De Schepper d. David Vega Hernandez 6-2 6-2
Carballes Baena d. Gerald Granollers 6-0 6-3
As far as main draw action is concerned, Robin Haase opened up the proceedings against Ricardas Berankis; it was a very tight affair throughout, with plenty of momentum swings and players getting tight on key junctures but in the end the Dutchman managed to book a round 2 date with the tournament’s #1 seed Feliciano Lopez, though not before another trademark tiebreak loss in the second set.
Filip Krajinovic had little trouble disposing of Alejandro Gonzalez with his bigger serve making the difference in a match that featured a lot of long, tightly contested rallies; the Serb will now face either Nick Kyrgios or Albert Ramos in round 2.
Krajinovic d. Gonzalez 6-3 6-3
In what was perhaps the most anticipated match of the day, 18yo Borna Coric beat Jeremy Chardy in relatively straightforward fashion, avenging his Australian Open loss to the same opponent; as is often the case, Chardy hit his fair share of blistering winners but those were heavily outnumbered by the borderline ridiculous unforced errors; the young Croatian didn’t need to do anything all too special, the baseline consistency that we’ve come to associate with him was more than enough to prevail over Chardy’s inconsistent/erratic ballstriking. Next up for Coric is the winner of João Sousa vs Rui Machado, meaning that he must be feeling good about his chances of making yet another ATP quarterfinal.
Coric d. Chardy 6-2 6-4
Coric overcame Chardy on the day (photo credit: Manuel Traquete)
In the final match of the day on Center Court, 20yo Portuguese hope Frederico Silva took on Gilles Muller in a rare battle between two lefties. In the first set, Silva conceded an early break and was powerless against Muller’s fantastic serve, but he fought back in the second set, taking advantage of a dip in Muller’s serving level to sneak a break and level the match. He seemed to carry that momentum into the third set and got an early break chance, but after squandering it with a missed second serve return he checked out from the match mentally and it was all Muller until the end. Though this a very rare claycourt winner for the Luxembourgian, his run might well not be over with Fischer/Montanes looking like beatable opponents in the next round.
Muller d. Silva 6-3 3-6 6-1
Muller won the battle of the lefties (photo credit: Manuel Traquete)
On Tuesday, Kenny de Schepper and Gastão Elias will open up the proceedings at 1pm on court 2; it’s a match where, given the surface and his history of good performances at this event, the Portuguese player has to be considered the favorite, though De Schepper’s huge serve always gives him a shot on a great day despite his general shortcomings on the clay; after that, Bucharest champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face Roberto Carballes Baena and although form and ranking suggest Garcia Lopez should win, it won’t be easy for him to get going again after such a great week in Romania, it is after all rare for players below the very top to string consecutive great weeks of tennis and there’s bound to be a physical and emotional letdown after winning a title. Not only that, but when these two faced last year in the Casablanca semifinals Carballes Baena pushed eventual champions Garcia-Lopez to the very limit; considering that, the good form Baena showed during the qualifying tournament and the challenge that it will be for Garcia-Lopez to back up a title run last week, an upset could very well be on the cards in this one.
Court 2 action will finish with Nicolas Almagro, who’s still trying to comeback to his pre-injury level, taking on Stephane Robert. Despite his unimpressive form, Almagro has to be considered the huge favorite here; Robert’s most memorable career moment was an unbelievable comeback from 0-2 down in sets against perennial top 10 player Tomas Berdych in the 2011 French Open, but aside from that one result clay has never proved a happy hunting ground for him
On court 3, Pablo Carreno Busta will take on qualifier Constant Lestienne; the Spaniard is the obvious favorite but he’s not immune to upsets against lower ranked players as we’ve seen multiple times in the past year, not to mention that due to the way he plays he’s always vulnerable to opponents playing good quality attacking tennis. Lestienne must feel he’s in with a chance to spring an upset here. After that match, the 2009 and 2010 champion of this event, Albert Montañes, will take on Martin Fischer; Montañes is heavily declined and a mere shadow of the player who claimed back-to-back titles on Portuguese soil – even beating Roger Federer in the semifinals of the 2010 tournament – but should still have the edge in this contest.
On center court, Richard Gasquet will make a long-awaited return from the injury he sustained against Michael Berrer in Indian Wells; though there might still be some question marks about his health and especially match fitness, the draw was quite kind to him, pairing him up with Marinko Matosevic in round 1, a player who is notorious for his lack of success on clay. Even if he’s still rusty, the 2007 and 2012 finalist (lost to Djokovic and del Potro) should make it through to round 2. At 4pm, the all-Portuguese clash between Sousa and Machado will take place; while Machado was once, not too long ago, the highest ranked Portuguese player of all-time, he’s nowhere near that level currently and Sousa has surpassed him in pretty much every regard and is the clear favorite for tomorrow, though Machado is not without his chances, especially if he can repeat the level he showed last year at this tournament.
The last match of the day will be between young Aussie Nick Kyrgios and Albert Ramos from Spain; Kyrgios turned 20 years old on Monday and he will be looking to celebrate his birthday with his first clay win of the year, but it will be a tough ask against a seasoned claycourter like Ramos. Kyrgios has of course the much bigger game of the two players, but clay is not his best surface and he’s bound to still be a bit rusty after returning only last week from the injury sustained during his round 2 match against Dimitrov in the California desert, and there are plenty of question marks regarding his form, especially considering his match against Ymer last week in Barcelona wasn’t shown on television or streamed.
Tennis Atlantic 