2015 ATP Metz and St. Petersburg Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour returns with the start of the European fall indoor hard court swing. A pair of 250s are up this week, one in Metz, France, and the other in St. Petersburg, Russia, as that event returns after being absent from the tour calendar last season.
ATP Metz
Moselle Open
ATP World Tour 250
Metz, France
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4)
2: Gilles Simon (10)
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (17)
4: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (31)
Two top 10 players, and three top 20 players gives Metz a quality field for a small indoor 250 at this point in the season.
Kohlschreiber had a successful outing in Davis Cup for Germany over the weekend as he went 2-0, but the former Metz finalist has had a down season at the ATP level thsi year. Additionally, he may have to fight fatigue and jet lag as he’s coming back from the Caribbean with Davis Cup duty. Millman is a talented underachiever who won a pair of challengers over the summer and can play solid tennis at times, Peppo is still the favorite, but this match has some upset potential.
(6)Martin Klizan vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
PHM is playing on home soil, and veteran who relies on solid ballstriking is a relatively solid player indoors. He recently reached the final in Kitzbuhel on clay over the summer, beating his opponent Klizan in the process, and qualified for the US Open. Klizan comes off a 2-0 result in Davis Cup and has an indoor h2h win over Mathieu in Rotterdam (2013, 3 sets) but he’s a streaky player who can ball bash well, or struggle mightily. Depending on what version of Klizan will show up, he’ll either advance with ease or lose in an upset in this matchup of contrasting styles.
(WC)Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
The US Open doubles champion Herbert recently reached his first ATP title in Winston-Salem, and on home soil with a big serve, he’s a danger to the serve and volleyer Stakhovsky. Stako reached the third round of the US Open and a recent challenger final however (in Istanbul), so his form appears good. An inspired PHH could rock the boat this tournament, and with a recent h2h win over Stako, I have him winning against him again.
(8)Fernando Verdasco vs. Alexander Zverev
Verdasco is just 2-5 since Wimbledon, and he risks dropping that number to 2-6 at the hands of the young gun Zverev. The teenager had a successful summer and qualified for the US Open among other good results. His indoor game isn’t as good as his clay court game, but the big hitting Verdasco has struggled to find rhythm and I’m going to go with an upset and pick Zverev, who is on the upswing of his career, while Verdasco is clearly heading downhill.
Stan Wawrinka was pushed to five sets in his DC singles rubber against the lower ranked Thiemo De Bakker on Friday, but the Swiss #2 is unlikely to have much trouble getting past the first couple of matches in Metz. Wawrinka is 42-13 on the season and also reached the semis of the US Open most recently. Look for him to get past a serve and volleyer in his first match, either Rajeev Ram or the big serving Dustin Brown, who also comes off of DC duty, and then past Kohlschreiber for a spot in the semifinals. Stan the Man is 2-0 in the h2h, and should not only be in better form, but also be fresher than his German counterpart. Both players have elite one handed backhands and it’ll be a fun matchup if it takes place. The Kohlschreiber/Millman winner faces either Belgium’s Davis Cup hero Steve Darcis, or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 2 with the serve and volleying Darcis likely too tired to make much of an impact this tournament.
Two-time Metz champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was excellent at the US Open, where he reached the quarterfinals, and the aggressive Frenchman tends to play well indoors, and at home. The fan favorite is placed in a weak section that will feature either a qualifier or Pablo Carreno Busta in the round of 16, and by ranking #7 seed Adrian Mannarino in the quarterfinals. Nicolas Mahut, the other half of the winning US Open doubles team, could prove to be a bit of a dark horse if the serve and volleyer can get his game together and beat a struggling Federico Delbonis (a loser of 5 straight matches) and Mannarino, who has been streaky this season. All of the French players are fan favorites at home, but Tsonga is a clear favorite to reach the semis for a likely matchup against Wawrinka. I have Mahut slipping past Mannarino, though it’s hard to tell with Adrian.
Two-time Metz champion Gilles Simon, another of the French fan favorites at this tournament, will open with a qualifier and from there should advance to face the big serving and dangerous Gilles Muller in the quarterfinals. Muller opens with Aljaz Bedene as he looks to snap a 3 match losing streak. The serve and volleyer is at his best on fast surfaces and I see him slipping past the Verdasco/Zverev winner in a potentially close match. Simon beat Muller last year in Tokyo, and I see him earning a pair of wins to snap a four match losing streak and reach the semifinals.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez won a pair of matches at the US Open to improve his form, but of the four top seeds, he’s still the most likely to exit before the quarterfinals, as the Herbert/Stakhovsky winner could stymie him with their unique styles of play. The Spanish veteran has won a title on indoor hard courts this season though and he has more experience than Herbert in a tough section. The other quarterfinalist will be one of Aleksandr Nedovyesov/Vasek Pospisil/Klizan/Mathieu, with Mathieu my favorite out of the section. Pospisil also has talent but he’s inconsistent, so look for Mathieu past Pospisil, and then Garcia-Lopez over Mathieu in a wide open section.
Frenchmen Herbert, Mathieu, and Mahut could all serve as unseeded dark horses this week, but with the #2 seed Simon struggling, if Muller serves well he could reach the semifinals, and potentially the final out of the bottom half. After gaining some rest, he should be fresh and he plays well on these types of surfaces historically.
Predictions
Semis: Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Simon d. Garcia-Lopez
Tsonga has a h2h win in Metz (2007) but the previous few meetings have gone in favor of Wawrinka, and the Swiss has clearly outperformed his French counterpart this year, and in recent memory. Wawrinka simply should be a cut above his semifinal opposition.
Simon is in a slump but he’s 5-0 in the h2h against GGL, so if he gets this far, he should reach another Metz final.
Final: Wawrinka d. Simon
Presuming Wawrinka devotes effort to this 250 tournament he should win it, he’s the best player in the field by a considerable margin, and a player like Simon won’t be in the form to match him toe to toe right now.
ATP St. Petersburg
St. Petersburg Open
ATP World Tour 250
St. Petersburg, Russia
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: $1,030,000
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Milos Raonic (9)
3: Dominic Thiem (20)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (22)
Even without the strong contingent of home players that Metz sports, St. Petersburg returns to the ATP Tour after funding problems last season with a strong field that features two top 10, and three top 20 players in what should be an entertaining edition of the tournament.
Their teams faced each other in Davis Cup over the weekend, with Bolelli and Italy emerging victorious, but now the young gun Rublev would like to extract some personal revenge for that loss at home in St. Petersburg, where he is one of the stars of the tournament, and the future of Russian tennis at the moment. The teenager qualified for the US Open, snapping a summer of struggles, but his loss in Davis Cup to Fabio Fognini should dent his momentum a bit. Bolelli, a solid player indoors, is also the loser of three straight however and the Italian veteran is looking to gain momentum himself. Look for big hitting in this matchup, and as celebrated as Rublev is, I have Bolelli grinding out the win.
(6)Benoit Paire vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz beat Paire in three sets earlier this year on indoor hard, but Paire has had a much better season than Jerzy and has been in excellent form since the summer. The French all-courter and his one handed backhand reached the second week of the US Open while Janowicz is 2-3 over his last five, which includes Davis Cup duty over the weekend. Janowicz with his power game is also solid indoors, but I have Paire winning this matchup of talented but often underachieving players.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Ernests Gulbis
Two aggressive baseliners will face off in this one, Gulbis one the 2013 edition of St. Petersburg, while Baghdatis is 0-3 since suffering an abductor injury in the ATP Atlanta final back in July. Gulbis has lost four straight and, like Baghdatis, his last match ended in a retirement, as both guys have struggled to get healthy. A poor season for Gulbis is contrasted by a good season overall for Baghdatis, and I have the Cypriot notching the victory presuming his health has sorted itself out. Baghdatis is 3-0 in the hard court h2h.
Tomas Berdych had a poor summer by his top 10 standards, but the Czech is still 45-15 on the season and should have the inside track against Bolelli/Rublev. In the quarterfinals, look for him to face Australian young gun Thanasi Kokkinakis. Kokkinakis opens with pedestrian Spanish veteran Marcel Granollers, and then he’ll face either Joao Sousa or a qualifier in round 2. Both Sousa and Kokkinakis come off of Davis Cup play but Sousa is in poor form, and although he’s had a lot of success on indoor hard, I have Kokkinakis winning that matchup. Berdych should power past Kokkinakis at that stage however.
#3 seed Dominic Thiem reached the third round of the US Open in a decent showing for the Austrian, and he’ll look to continue to improve on fast surfaces with a routine win over Daniel Gimeno-Traver or newlywed Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2, as both players much prefer clay. In the quarterfinals, Mikhail Kukushkin could prove to be the dark horse, as he opens with a relatively struggling Denis Istomin and then will face a qualifier or the mightily slumping Benjamin Becker in round 2. Kukushkin played well at the US Open and beat Istomin at the start of the season, his game tends to peak for these smaller 250 events. Thiem and Kukushkin have never played one another, but Kukushkin’s hard court form is arguably better right now, and I have him scoring the rankings upset and reaching the semis.
Milos Raonic has struggled since Wimbledon with a pedestrian 2-3 record. The Canadian #1 hasn’t been the same with his rocket serve since foot surgery, but he’s playing an easy match to open in St. Petersburg against either Evgeny Donskoy or a qualifier. Donskoy, a wild card, has been in excellent form at the challenger tour level this summer but Raonic should still prove too much for him. In the quarters he’s likely to face another player in a slump, as the Baghdatis/Gulbis winner or Tommy Robredo/Mikhail Youzhny are options. The 33 year old Robredo has had a far superior season to Youzhny, so though Youzhny is playing on home soil, Robredo should get through, and likely get past Baghdatis/Gulbis as well, as they may be rusty in their own right. Raonic is 4-0 against Robredo in the h2h with all wins coming since 2013, so with that in mind the Canadian should make the semifinals.
Roberto Bautista Agut is 29-23 this season and comes off a second week showing in the US Open that should give him some good momentum in what has been a rather average year by his standards. Russian Davis Cup participant Teymuraz Gabashvili, presuming Gaba beats a qualifier, should await him in round 2, and Gabashvili is a player capable of crafting upsets, like he did against Andy Murray this summer in Washington. RBA is the section favorite, but Gabashvili could find form and reach the quarters, though he’s not my pick to do so. Paire/Janowicz or Ricardas Berankis/Lucas Pouille will await most likely ether RBA or Gabashvili at that stage. Presuming Paire continues his run of form, which is always in question, I look for him to make it that far before falling to RBA. Berankis has also been in good form as of late with his undersized game. RBA is 7-0 in the h2h against Paire.
If a non seed is going to reach the semifinals or better, Berankis is the player to watch, he’s just 5-8 but he’s always been talented and he’s one of the better pure baseline ball strikers on the ATP tour. He reached consecutive quarterfinals on the US Open Series this summer and he plays well on fast indoor surfaces. Paire/Janowicz are streaky, and RBA/Gabashvili are beatable, so it’s far from out of the question that the Lithuanian will do well at a tournament that is close to home for him.
Predictions
Semis: Berdych d. Kukushkin
Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Berdych is simply better than Kukushkin and has a h2h win, so like Wawrinka in Metz, if the top seed puts his efforts into this tournament, he’s the favorite. Raonic has a h2h win over RBA last year in Paris, an indoor tournament, and he should be motivated to fight hard this fall on fast surfaces to gain some ranking points after a slow Summer.
Indoors Raonic leads the h2h 2-1, but Berdych appears to be in better form and for that reason I have him as a slight favorite over Raonic in this possible final.
The most famed slam of them all is here, as the best men’s and women’s tennis players in the world will take to the crisp grass courts of Wimbledon in a show of skills, as they begin the quest for points and glory at SW19. Now that the draw is out, here is a preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon 2015 Preview
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
London, England
June 29-July 12, 2015
Prize Money: 26,750,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Milos Raonic (8)
8: David Ferrer (7)*
Even with the more complex Wimbledon seeding system, the top 8 seeds, are the top 8 players in the world presently, with Raonic and Ferrer switching spots.
All of the top names are here except for David Ferrer, who withdrew with an elbow injury after the draw was made.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Novak Djokovic will have to face the toughest round 1 opponent he’s faced at a Grand Slam in years, as the unseeded Kohlschreiber is a dark horse on grass in his own right, and even though he is 1-6 in the h2h, he’ll surely give this match his best effort. Djokovic, the defending, and two time, Wimbledon champion, didn’t play any of the ATP warm up tournaments on grass prior to this years tournament, and he went 1-1 in the Boodles challenger exhibition on grass. (losing to Alex Zverev, beating Richard Gasquet). After a disappointing Roland Garros result, Djokovic is showing signs of vulnerability, and the former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Kohlschreiber has to have hope of at least taking a set, and quite possibly making this a match. Kohlschreiber pushed Roger Federer to the brink of match point in their Halle match, eventually losing in three sets. I expect Djokovic to survive due to Kohlschreiber’s mental liabilities, but it won’t be easy.
(24)Leonardo Mayer vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Mayer, an Argentine, tends to prefer clay, and thusly he’s not a “Top 25” player on grass, as his seed would indicate. That said, he’s no slouch either as he comes off the quarterfinals in Nottingham after a pair of wins, and a third set tiebreak loss to Denis Istomin. Opposing him will be the young Australian Kokkinakis. Last year Nick Kyrgios was the one who made his breakthrough at Wimbledon, and now Kokkinakis will try to seize his moment. He’s still adjusting to grass but he’s a solid competitor with a good fast court game, meaning this match is about even odds in my mind. It’s a tough pick, but I’m going with the spirited Australian in 4 or 5 sets over Mayer.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Simone Bolelli
Last year they battled for five sets with Nishikori coming out on top at Wimbledon. The Japanese #1 comes off the semis in Halle, and hopefully he’s healthy and ready to make a push in London. Bolelli. a talented shotmaker is 5-2 on grass with a Nottingham quarterfinal on his resume in 2015. This one could well go five also, but Nishikori should be able break Bolelli down into errors and grab a win.
Stan the man beat Sousa at Wimbledon in straights last year, and now as a defending quarterfinalist and the French Open champion, he will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders to do well this year. Wawrinka slumped in a defeat to Kevin Anderson at Queens club, and could be vulnerable to a shocking upset, I don’t expect it to happen as Sousa went just 2-3 on grass in 2015, but he did beat Denis Istomin and Sam Groth, a pair of good grass courters, so the ability is there, though consistency is lacking for the streaky Portugese. Wawrinka is most likely to win in straights.
Dustin Brown vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A great grass court battle of unheralded players. The powerful serve and volleyer Brown qualified for Wimbledon with ease, and did the same in Stuttgart, as his game is at its peak on quick surfaces. Lu upset Halle finalist Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez to reach the quarterfinals in Nottingham, he also qualified at Queens and appears to be in good form with his baseline oriented weaponless game. Brown will provide more spark and excitement, but Lu should be the more reliable of the pair, and thus I have him advancing.
(13)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gilles Muller
My pick for the most notable seeded victim of round 1 is Tsonga. He played a close encounter with Muller last year on indoor hard, and he’s apparently not been healthy since the French Open semis. JW is fine on grass, but Muller is also excellent with his staunch serve and aggressive volley play. It should be 4 or 5 sets, but look for Muller to win some tiebreaks and get through this match in an upset.
Robin Haase vs. (Q)Alejandro Falla
A matchup with great grass court potential, Falla beat Haase last year in Halle on grass , and he qualified in Halle this year, and for Wimbledon, proving his forehand centric lefty game is still effective on the surface. Haase reached the semis in Den Bosch and can produce great varied tennis on grass, though his mental fortitude is continually lacking. This one could go either way, but I give Falla a slight edge to get through, perhaps in 5 sets.
You can’t beat this match if you like serve and volley tennis on grass, Lopez is 1-1 against Darcis, a fellow veteran with a similar style, though Flopez has more power, and flopez did get a win at Queens when they met on grass in 2012. Darcis famously beat Rafa here, and the otherwise journeyman Belgian simply loves the venue. That said is currently on a five match losing streak. Lopez has had a pedestrian grass court season, going 2-3, but he still has previous success at Wimbledon, and thus I give him the edge to advance.
(31)Jack Sock vs. Sam Groth
Sock will take on a player five years his senior, in the form of the big serving serve and volleyer Groth. The young gun American with a great forehand should have an advantage in this match given his well rounded game, but Groth will be able to apply constant pressure by holding his serve and if he can keep the error count down on his racquet he’ll have his shot in this one. The Australian reached the quarters in Stuttgart and won a challenger in title on grass this year. Sock elected not to play any of the ATP tournaments on grass as warm-up but presumably he’s healthy. I have Jack winning this but a Groth upset wouldn’t shock me.
The winner of Djokovic/Kohlschreiber will face Jarkko Nieminen or Lleyton Hewitt in round 2, as Djokovic could face two talented grass courters in consecutive matches. The former Wimbledon champion Hewitt is playing his final Wimbledon, and surely the legend wants to leave a final mark on the All-England Club center court against Djokovic. Hewitt has been in sharp decline and has been both mentally and physically struggling this year, but he’s still 5-0 against the speedy Nieminen, and thus I’m going with him to snap a losing streak and get to round 2, before bowing out against Novak, who is superior in every way at this point in their respective careers.
The draw does not get easier for Djokovic after Kohlschreiber and Hewitt/Nieminen, as a tough first week will conclude against former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic in all likelihood. Tomic, a Stuttgart quarterfinalist, will need to defeat JL Struff, who is in the midst of a losing streak, and then Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Hyeon Chung in round 2. Herbert, a big server. qualified for Wimbledon and should have the inside track against Chung, who has talent but is inexperienced on the surface. Look for Bernie to beat them both, and then fall to Djokovic as he has in the three previous times they have met, including the 2011 Wimbledon quarters.
14 seed Kevin Anderson, a finalist in Queens, should be able to cruise past young dirtballer Lucas Pouille. who has lost five straight, and likewise pass a stiffer test against Jerzy Janowicz, a former Wimbledon semifinalist in round 2. JJ reached the quarters in Halle but has failed to be consistent this year , I don’t see him dropping a set against journeyman Marsel Ilhan (5 straight losses), but Anderson with his strong serve+forehand combo is a much more challenging opponent, and given the 2-0 h2h, the South African should advance to round 3.
Thanasi Kokkinakis will have a great shot at the third round, and should make it, presuming he defeats Mayer. Marcel Granollers or Janko Tipsarevic, both struggling vets, will be his round 2 opponent, and it’s difficult to tell which Tipsy will show up for that match. Granollers isn’t great but at least he’s been able to play competitive tennis, and thus I have him as the one losing to Kokkinakis round 2. Anderson beat Kokkinakis last year, and given this is grass with the South Africans good form, look for Djokovic vs. Anderson in the round of 16, as Kev’s good form in Queens should carry him into the second week at Wimbledon.
The winner of Nishikori/Bolelli, presumably Kei unless we get carnage in the first quarter, will almost certainly face Santiago Giraldo in round 2, unless the Colombian is shocked by Joao Souza. who has almost never played on grass. Giraldo has struggled this season, and thus even with his power forehand game maxed, Nishikori is likely to advance to round 3 presuming he can get past the round 1 match.
In that third round, any of the four options could await. Denis Kudla, the-all court American wild card with a good grass game is here, and will have an upset chance against dirtballer Pablo Cuevas. Kudla is on a hot streak with a challenger final and a title on grass in consecutive weeks, he’s always been on the cusp of a breakthrough, so a third round run would be huge for his confidence. Teymuraz Gabashvili and Alex Zverev are also both unseeded players in good form, Gabashvili won a challenger recently, while Zverev beat Djokovic in an exhibition, and is 4-3 in ATP grass court tournaments this season. It’s a tough call between Zverev and Gabashvili, but I’m going with Zverev, and then Kudla over Zverev, before Nishikori beats Kudla in the third round, simply given the difference in talent and performance in their careers, and this season.
Marin Cilic and John Isner could be on a third round collision course, Cilic a Stuttgart semifinalist, appears to be finally getting back into top 10 form after coming back from injury, and he should blitz outgunned qualifier Hiroki Moriya in round 1. After that Cilic will also be a heavy favorite against Ricardas Berankis or Andreas Haider-Maurer. AHM much prefers clay, while Berankis qualified in Halle, I have Berankis winning the round 1 match, but losing routinely to Cilic.
Isner will face another Japanese qualifier, Go Soeda, in round 1, and the Queens semifinalist should also outgun his opponent. In round 2, Isner is likely to face Matt Ebden, a formerly top 100 Aussie who is a bit of a grass court specialist these days like Kudla, Ebden and Kudla have torn up the grass court challenger circuit in the UK this year (1 title, 1 final each) and Matty should roll past Blaz Rola, a former college tennis standout. Ebden could challenge Isner if the American can’t get off the blocks well, but in all likelihood it will be Cilic vs. Isner round 3.
Cilic dominates the h2h (4-0) against Isner, and with the exception of serve, is a better player than Isner in each of the important categories. It could be a battle, but Cilic should be the player who reaches the second week.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Wawrinka/Sousa will open with with Benjamin Becker or Victor Estrella. Becker is a good grass courter but hasn’t been healthy recently, while Estrella is on a five match losing streak. If Becker is healthy he should get through that round 1 match, but Wawrinka, barring a shocking collapse, has a safe path to the third round. Former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco could await there, he will open with Martin Klizan, who has power but not really a game built for grass. Verdasco should be able to defeat Klizan and then defeat Dominic Thiem or Dudi Sela in round 2. Sela is a career journeyman but the undersized Israeli is good on grass, while Thiem is adjusting to the surface and was a poor 1-3 this year. Thiem has more talent than Sela, but upset potential is there.
Verdasco vs. Wawrinka should be a great third round match, Verdasco actually leads the h2h 2-1 but they have never met on a fast surface, the match should be on Stan’s racquet regardless, as both players can play erratic or brilliant tennis depending on the day. Wawrinka’s backhand will collide with Verdasco’s forehand, and I see Wawrinka surviving that match to reach the round of 16.
The section below Wawrinka/Verdasco is wide open, the 16 seed is David Goffin, who reached the final in Den Bosch, his best ever result on grass. Goffin should cruise past dirtballer Horacio Zeballos and then defeat either Marinko Matosevic or British wild card Liam Broady in round 2. Matosevic has lost 11 matches in a row, Broady has lost 6 in a row in one of the most out of form grand slam matches you will witness. Broady should ride the home crowd to an upset win over the hapless Matosevic, before falling to Goffin. Nottingham semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis, who tends to peak on grass, even late in his career, with his aggressive quick strike game, will open with struggling Donald Young who is on a four match losing streak. Presuming Baghdatis is healthy and fit, he should win that one, and setup a meeting with either qualifier John Millman or Tommy Robredo. Millman has always been a talent but he’s been an underachiever , while Robredo has struggled this year and went 1-1 on grass in 2015. Millman upset Robredo in Sydney in 2013, and I have him doing so again, and upsetting the 19 seed. Baghdatis should beat Millman or Robredo for a spot in the third round.
Goffin-Baghdatis should be another great match, Baghdatis has a 3-0 h2h edge including two wins this year, and I give him the advantage if he’s healthy. Look for the veteran Baghdatis to advance to the second week given his previous semifinal result at Wimbledon years ago.
7 seed Milos Raonic will open with Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a dirtballer, Raonic has been slow returning from a foot injury, but he has a good draw to reach the second week. After DGT, Tommy Haas or Dusan Lajovic will be next. Haas has, as expected, been slow returning from injury as well, with a 1-2 record on grass, and though he should beat Lajovic, who is poor on grass, Raonic should prove to be too stiff of a test for the veteran German, Raonic beat Haas in 2013 on indoor hard in straights.
Look for Nick Kyrgios to also reach the third round, after his run to the quarterfinals last year. Kyrgios has been struggling under the pressure of being the top young gun in the game at the moment, but Diego Schwartzman, his round 1 opponent, is a dirtballer, and neither Juan Monaco, nor a struggling Florian Mayer should be able to oust him in round 2. Monaco is another South American relatively allergic to grass, while Mayer reached the quarters in Halle, but the veteran has otherwise struggled. Kyrgios-Mayer could be good but presuming NK is healthy he should be fine, he tends to peak for slams.
Raonic-Kyrgios could be a great match, and NK shouldn’t be counted out, especially with Raonic having the lingering effects of a foot injury, but his relentless serve should baffle Kyrgios just like it did at Wimbledon last year, where Kyrgios was in better form. The Queens quarterfinalist Raonic should reach the second week.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov opens with Federico Delbonis, and the winner of Lukas Lacko/Steve Johnson will follow that. Dimitrov is struggling, a winner of just two of his last six matches but he reached the semis here last year and should at least get to round 2. Johnson and Lacko are both inconsistent, but if on, could trouble Dimitrov, that said I have Grisha reaching round 3 and setting up a match against Richard Gasquet, the versatile French veteran. Gasquet opens with qualifier Luke Saville, who could trouble him given his previous junior success at Wimbledon (2011 boys champion). Gasquet should win that though and then beat either qualifier JP Smith or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, more likely De Schepper, to get that match against Dimitrov.
Gasquet is 4-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, that said the match should still be a battle if they meet in round 3. Gasquet should advance though given Dimitrov’s poor form, and thus reach the second week.
The former Wimbledon champion, and current Queens club champion Andy Murray once again has the hopes of a nation on him at Wimbledon. His form has been fantastic all season, across the surfaces, and he should blitz into the fourth round with relative ease. Mikhail Kukushkin, who is struggling, is an easy out in round 1, and then Haase/Falla would challenge him given this is grass, but it’s unlikely they will be able to maintain the level needed to oust the UK #1. In the third round, Andreas Seppi, the Halle finalist, should await. Seppi with his varied game should be able to dispatch Brydan Klein, a UK wild card, and the winner of Sergiy Stakhovsky/Borna Coric. Coric/Stako have split meetings this year, Stakhovsky is superior on grass and thus he’s the favorite with his serve and volley game. Stako could also give Seppi problems but he hasn’t been entirely healthy. Murray is 6-1 in his career vs Seppi.
Tsonga/Muller will face Denis Istomin or Albert Ramos in round 2, Istomin won the title in Nottingham and he’s a good grass courter so he could trouble either Muller or Tsonga, but given the fatigue factor I have Muller into the third round. Ivo Karlovic will face Elias Ymer, a qualifier, in round 1, Dr. Ivo should win that with his big serve, andthen Kyle Edmund, a wild card, or Alexandr Dolgopolov will await. Dolgopolov is in good form and has two previous h2h wins over Ivo, thus I have him advancing into the third round. The Ukrainian shotmaker defeated Rafael Nadal at Queens and reached the semis in Nottingham while Karlovic reached the semis in Halle, and upset Tomas Berdych.
Muller-Dolgopolov (or Tsonga/Karlovic/Istomin) here should make for an interesting third rounder, Dolgo, if on, is a top 20 player in terms of talent, but he tends to have lapses in his game, while Muller is steady but doesn’t have as much of a peak. Either serve as a dark horse, and I have Dolgopolov getting past the two servebots Karlovic and Muller to reach the second week.
Rafael Nadal,the champion in Stuttgart, will be looking to avoid an early exit against Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal tends to be boom or bust on grass these days, and Bellucci has power, but he’s not great on grass, thus Nadal should win that, and beat Brown or Lu in round 2. Brown could trouble Nadal, as he has beaten Rafa before on grass, but I don’t see that resulting repeating itself unless Dreddy can redline his game. In the third round, Viktor Troicki, the player he faced in the Stuttgart final, is his likely opponent. Troicki opens with Alex Nedovyesov, a qualifier, and then the winner of Radek Stepanek/Aljaz Bedene. Stepanek is a declined veteran, though formerly good on grass, and with Troicki in red hot form, he shouldn’t have issue reaching the third round.
Nadal is 5-0 in his career against Troicki, so barring a shot he should dispatch the Stuttgart finalist and Queens semifinalist to reach the second week.
After the Ferrer withdrawal, lucky loser Luca Vanni will be an underdog against British wild card James Ward, as Ward has a great chance to go as far as the fourth round on grass. At a minimum, Wardy should rise and defeat Vanni in front of home fans. After that Jiri Vesely, who opens with grass allergic Paolo Lorenzi awaits. Ward isn’t in great form, while Vesely isn’t great on grass, that said, Vesely has more talent so I see him reaching the third round.
30 seed Fabio Fognini opens with a struggling Tim Smyczek, Fognini is volatile and not great on grass, thus Smyczek will have his chance, but Fognini is more likely to be ousted by a hopefully healthy Vasek Pospisil in round 2. Pospisil opens with qualifier Vincent Millot, a French journeyman veteran. He’s showed signs of improvement though he’s struggled, from time to time this year and in a weak section, I have him upsetting Fognini to reach round 3.
It’s amazing that any of the players in this section would reach the fourth round, Pospisil-Vesely is my pick for the third round matchup, and that’s a coin flip to me. I have Pospisil advancing based upon the surface, but he hasn’t showed the form needed to reach the second week of a slam in quite some time, so perhaps this is Vesely’s time to rise.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 7 time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer will again serve it up at SW19, in what is perhaps his last realistic chance to win another Grand Slam and add to his record setting total. A finalist last year, the Swiss should roll past Damir Dzumhur, and either Nottingham finalist Sam Querrey, or qualifier Igor Sijsling to reach the third round. Sock/Groth should await him in round 3, and I don’t see them giving him too much trouble given this is grass. Sock/Groth faces the winner of Malek Jaziri/James Duckworth in round 2.
Lopez/Darcis will face Nikolosz Basilashvili, a qualifier, or dirtballer Facundo Bagnis round 2. Lopez presuming he gets past Darcis shouldn’t have a problem reaching the third round. Roberto Bautista Agut could await there for an all-Spanish battle, presuming RBA beats all courter Ruben Bemelmans, and then Benoit Paire or Mikhail Youzhny. Paire hates grass, while Youzhny is nearing retirement and in poor form. I actually have RBA losing to Bemelmans in an upset, but I may be too bullish on that. The Belgian qualified for Nottingham while RBA has lost three straight. Bemelmans should also defeat Paire or Youzhny, and I have Bemelmans over Youzhny in my bracket.
Given this is grass, Lopez should reach the second week and defeat Bemelmans or another opponent, even though his season has been poor thus far.
Tomas Berdych will open with Jeremy Chardy, who he has a 3-0 h2h advantage against. Berdych reached the quarters in Halle and the former Wimbledon finalist should be able to get past that one. Wild card Nicolas Mahut, the Den Bosch champion, is a dangerous grass court serve and volleyer in round 2, presuming he rolls past Filip Krajinovic, but Berdych should have too much power for Mahut, and also one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Pablo Andujar/Ernests Gulbis/Lukas Rosol in round 3. Gulbis has been awful this year, and Rosol can be a powerful ball basher on grass, thus look for Rosol to beat Gulbis, and also Garcia-Lopez given this is grass to reach round 3. GGL reached the quarters in Queens and beat Andujar there.
Rosol is to some extent a poor man’s Berdych, given their similar styles, and the fact Berdych does everything better than Rosol, Tomas should reach the round of 16 in the battle of Davis Cup teammates. He has a 2-0 h2h edge on hard courts.
12 seed Gilles Simon opens with Nicolas Almagro, with the winner of qualifier Yuichi Sugita/Blaz Kavcic to follow. The Queens semifinalist and Nottingham quarterfinalist Simon, who has been steady this year, should advance through those matches with ease to reach round 3. Sugita is good on grass and should beat Kavcic.
18 seed Gael Monfils opens with dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then Adrian Mannarino or Michael Berrer in round 2. Berrer qualified, while Mannarino, a Den Bosch quarterfinalist, is a good all-courter. Mannarino should give Monfils a test, but the Stuttgart semifinalist and Halle quarterfinalist should come through and reach round 3 to setup an all-French battle with Simon.
Simon-Monfils has previously given us some of the most exciting, yet boring tennis known to man, that said, Simon dominates the h2h 5-1, and he won a h2h meeting this year in Marseille, given his good form, Gilles is the favorite for the round of 16.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Simone Bolelli, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexandr Dolgopolov/Gilles Muller, Ruben Bemelmans
Bolelli would need to defeat Nishikori, but if he pulls off that feat the Italian shotmaker will be the favorite in every possible match going into the round of 16, and there he would have a chance against Cilic/Isner. Baghdatis should reach the round of 16, and I wouldn’t put it past him to upset Wawrinka/Verdasco there.
Dolgopolov or Muller are reaching week 2 in my bracket, I don’t see them getting past Murray though ,while Bemelmans could reach the second week if Lopez comes up short. Upsetting RBA would be a big move for him.
Djokovic d. Anderson
Cilic d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Baghdatis
Raonic d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Pospisil
Murray d. Dolgopolov
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Lopez
Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has a Wimbledon win, Cilic and Nishikori are rivals and Kei has a 5-3 edge in that one, that said this is grass and I feel Cilic has a small advantage now that he’s coming into form, just like his upset win at the US Open in the 2014 final.
Wawrinka is 5-0 against Baghdatis and has a grass court win, making me feel more at ease picking him. Raonic just beat Gasquet at Queens and leads the h2h 3-1 in that one, he should improve with each match he plays and serve his way into the quarters.
Presuming Nadal reaches the round of 16, his matchup there should be easy and the quarters is close a lock for Rafa. Murray is 3-0 against Dolgo and superior on grass, so he also should accelerate into the quarters. Murray beat Muller at Queens this year.
Simon leads the h2h 6-4 against Berdych but Berdych won their meeting this year, and has been solid this year, I feel he will overpower the Frenchman to reach the quarters. Fed is 11-0 against Lopez and I don’t see him losing before the quarters.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Raonic d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Nadal
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic beat Cilic at Wimbledon last year in 5 sets, and he leads the h2h 12-0 in that matchup, Wawrinka is 4-0 against Raonic, but their matchups have been relatively close, and this is grass, a surface I feel swings the advantage to Raonic.
Murray shocked Nadal in Madrid this year and though Rafa is 3-0 at Wimbledon in the h2h, Murray is in some of the best form of his career right now, while Rafa is not, and with that being the case, I have Murray advancing in a battle. Federer has twice beaten Berdych this year, and tends to dominate that matchup on the mental side. Federer has a loss to Berdych at Wimby but leads the grass h2h 2-1 and I see the world #2 living up to his ranking and getting through.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic is 5-0 against Raonic, it’s not out of the equation that he could be tripped up, but Djokovic rolled at their AO meeting this year, and Raonic has yet to prove he can rise up in slams and conjure up a level of play needed to beat the world #1.
Murray hasn’t beaten Federer since back surgery, but he famously beat him in the 2012 Wimbledon final and as mentioned, his form is at its peak at the moment. I’d be surprised if Murray can’t will himself into the final this year, given how solid he’s been all season, it’d be a deserved result for him to get past Fed.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic
I wouldn’t have predicted this result until Djokovic lost in the French Open final to Wawrinka. That result was a mental blow to him and I feel that result will reverberate through the rest of his 2015 season. He struggled under the pressure there, and he has show signs the loss is affecting him. He’s a more talented and skillful player than Murray, but Murray has will and heart on his side at the moment, he appears at ease with his game, and himself, and if there is any surface he can beat Novak on, it’s grass, as their previous Wimbledon final showed.
Novak hasn’t lost to Murray since his back surgery, but Murray appears back, and I was impressed by AM pushing Novak to five sets on clay at the French. Rather than pressure, look for Murray to feed off the home crowd and home cooking and take home a third grand slam title and second Wimbledon title.
Grass court qualifying in two places, both 500 level events with two rounds of qualifying action, took place over the weekend, as some interesting names booked their place in the main draw.
ATP Halle Qualifying
In Halle, defending finalist Alejandro Falla is the strongest of the qualifiers. Last year Falla made a surprise run to that final and he’s also reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon previously in his career. The veteran lefty has a game built for grass and he comfortably defeated Janko Tipsarevic and Tim Puetz, without dropping a set, to qualify.
Another of the four qualifiers in total is lefty Jarkko Nieminen who beat Filip Krajinovic and Tatsuma Ito without dropping a set. Nieminen isn’t a grass court specialist by any stretch of the imagination but he’s fast on his feet and plays aggressively.
A pair of talented but underachieving players also qualified, Slovak Lukas Lacko, now 27,has an aggressive and powerful game built for grass and he beat two solid opponents, Peter Gojowczyk and Jurgen Melzer in three sets to qualify. Lacko faces Falla in round 1. 24 year old Ricardas Berankis upset Austin Krajicek in three sets, and Vasek Pospisil 6-3 6-3 to qualify. The undersized ball striker was a top junior but has been a bust as a pro.
Berankis will have a winnable round 1 match against Tommy Robredo in round 1, while Nieminen could also advance as he faces Alexander Zverev, a wild card, in round 1.
ATP London Queens Qualifying
Sixteen players participated in the qualifying competition at the Aegon Championships, which is held at the Queen’s Club in London.
Italian world number 56 Simone Bolelli was the top seed in the qualifying draw and experienced little trouble. After a straight sets win over Lucas Pouille in the first round, he faced France’s Edouard Roger-Vasselin. The Frenchman produced an impressive performance at the tournament last year when he reached the third round in the singles draw as well as the semi-final in the doubles. Bolelli however, experience no trouble as he dropped his service once on his way to winning 7-6 (4), 6-3.
In the main draw the Italian faces a tough encounter against Richard Gasquet. Bolelli has played Gasquet on five previous occasions and has lost all of them. Their most recent match was earlier this year at the Doha Open where Gasquet eased his way to a 6-3, 6-2, win. Gasquet could face pressure but I presume he’ll prevail.
Rendy Lu was pushed hard during his match against Denis Istomin. The second seed produced a straight sets win over the talented Luca Vanni in the first round whilst Istomin edged his way past Go Soeda. During the match there was only two breaks of serve, one each, as both sets went into tie-breaks with Lu winning 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5).
The reward for Lu is a first round showdown against top seed Andy Murray. He has beaten Murray once before which was in the first round of the 2008 Beijing Olympic games. Since then, Murray has won their two most recent encounters (both in 2013) without dropping a set. Murray should blast through the weaponless Lu to reach round 2.
The biggest surprise was the impressive run by 18-year-old wild card Jared Donaldson. The American knocked out third seed and fellow countryman Tim Smyczek in the first round to face Tobias Kamke. Kamke has experienced a disastrous 2015 so far with only one main draw win to his name. His sole win was against Vincent Millot in Montpellier last February. The misery continued for the German as Donaldson cruised to take the match 7-5, 6-3. Donaldson is currently at a ranking high of 152 in the world and won his first Challenger title in Maui at the start of the year.
Donaldson, the American number 12, will play America’s number 1 John Isner in the first round. Given Isner’s experience, he should win comfortably.
Finally hopes of a British winner in the qualification draw were ended after Paul-Henri Mathieu beat Brydan Klein during the battle of the wild card’s. The former world number 12 produced a three sets win over 4th seed Chung Hyeon in the first round. Mathieu, who hasn’t won a title since 2007, required just over an hour on the court to break the British world number 188 6-3,6-2.
Mathieu will play Stuttgart finalist Viktor Troicki in the first round. Troicki’s run to the final in Germany has clearly demonstrated that the Serbian is currently in impressive shape, especially with his serve. On the other hand, there will be questions about how tired he will be coming into Queen’s. The two players have been drawn to play each other on three previous occasions but none of the matches got completed with one of the retiring (Troicki twice and Mathieu once). Presuming Troicki doesn’t retire and keep up the trend, his superior form should win him the day.
2015 ATP Rome Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
After the excitement of the Madrid Masters, the ATP heads to the third and final Masters event of the clay court season in Rome, where the intimate venue tends to create late night drama and bring out passionate fan support. This clay court season continues to be one of the most wide open in years, with multiple top players in feasible contention for the title going into this tournament.
2015 ATP Rome Preview
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Rome, Italy
May 10-May 17, 2015
Prize Money: €3,288,530
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (7)
7: David Ferrer (8)
8: Stan Wawrinka (9)
Milos Raonic pulled out but Djokovic is back in action, in terms of other names missing from the top 20, Tommy Robredo (injury), and Gael Monfils are both missing in action. Other players missing include Fernando Verdasco, and Italy’s Andreas Seppi.
The Italian wild card Vanni is unlikely to win over the much more accomplished Almagro, but he has a better chance than people are predicting. The slice and dicer on clay reached his first career ATP final at 29 in Sao Paulo, and he’s followed that up well as he qualified in Madrid, and then upset Bernard Tomic before falling in round 2 of the main draw. Vanni hits a lot of slice and has variety in his game, but not much power, and he’s on track to reach the top 100 and be able to compete at the ATP level on a regular basis. Almagro is still working back from injury problems and he comes off a round 1 loss in Madrid, though he has reached a pair of clay quarterfinals this Spring (Casablanca and Estoril). His power is likely to overwhelm Vanni matchup wise, but you never know if Vanni can work him into errors.
(11)Feliciano Lopez vs. Nick Kyrgios
With Lopez’s struggles on clay continuing unabated, Kyrgios is the favorite to score yet another top 15 win. The Aussie young gun is regularly battling hard against the ATP’s best these days, as he shocked Roger Federer in a Madrid thriller before falling in he round of 16. Prior to that, he reached the final in Estoril, his first on the ATP tour. It’s also notable he’s doing this on clay, which is his worst surface (likewise for Lopez). At this point it’s clear NK has arrived, and he’s earned the respect that a top player deserves, his rapid rise should continue with a win here as Lopez hasn’t won consecutive matches since March, he’s also one of the easier seeds to face on clay.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
An intriguing matchup of unpredictable players, the heavy hitting Cilic has yet to return to the form that saw him reach top 10 status, while Garcia-Lopez is having the best year of his career, while at the same time being inconsistent from week to week, as you never really know what you are going to get with him. The h2h is an even 1-1 and this is their first meeting on clay. The style contrast will be a joy as GGL brings variety and Cilic brings brute force. GGL won Bucharest and reached the Semis in Estoril, but lost early in both Casablanca and Madrid. Cilic reached the quarters in Monte Carlo but is just 1-2 since then, as the pressure is starting to build on the Croat if he is to keep his ranking up. This is another 50/50 match, but I’m going with Garcia-Lopez in an upset, he should be rested by now and appears to be playing better.
A quality matchup featuring clean ballstrikers, both have been in erratic form this season, but have the ability to play some of their tennis on clay. Thiem comes off the quarters in Munich but he’s just 2-3 on red clay this year, with 3 bad losses to lower ranked opponents. Bolelli, who reached the quarters in Bucharest, won a pair of matches before falling to Rafael Nadal in Madrid. The home court Italian is 5-4 on spring red clay in Europe, and playing in Rome is a big deal for him. This one could go either way, but given home soil, and a slight edge in form to Bolelli, I have him winning this one and continuing the pedestrian showings for Thiem.
(12)Gilles Simon vs. Jack Sock
A matchup of interest for American tennis fans, Houston champ Jack Sock, who upset Pablo Andujar in Madrid, and then pushed Tsonga to 3 sets, will take on the pusher Simon who is 3-2 on clay this year, and did not play in Madrid. Sock, who may be the best American clay courter right now (John Isner is the only other player in the conversation), will of course bring his aggressive forehand centric game to the table, against Simon’s defensive rallying and massaging of the ball. If Sock can keep his errors down and avoid frustration, he should be able to upset Simon, but that can be a tall task.
Three time, and defending champion Novak Djokovic should be well rested as he begins his quest to win yet another Masters title. It’s unlikely he’ll have much of a problem stretching his 18 match win streak to 20 matches as his first two opponents Vanni/Almagro and probably Roberto Bautista Agut, aren’t world beaters at the moment. RBA is 8-4 on clay this year, with all of those losses coming to top 8 opponents. He has a weak draw of Marcel Granollers, and a qualifier to start, but he doesn’t have the game to trouble Djokovic (0-2 h2h with no sets won). I don’t see Novak dropping a set en route to the quarterfinals.
Kei Nishikori, a semifinalist in Madrid, and the winner in Barcelona, will open with the winner of Ernests Gulbis/Jiri Vesely, and in theory either of those opponents could give him trouble if he’s fatigued. That said, Gulbis continues his disastrous form (5 straight losses), and Vesely has lost three straight himself, so though they have the ability, it’s unlikely they will show it. Nishikori could be in more trouble in the round of 16 though, if Kyrgios continues his fine form and beats Lopez and then the Bernard Tomic/Viktor Troicki winner. Kyrgios-Tomic is a good matchup on paper, but Bernie is not a clay courter and he’s failed to impress this year on the surface (3 straight losses), likewise Troicki is in a slump (4 straight losses), so Kyrgios is actually a favorite in the section. Kyrgios-Nishikori is hard to predict, and stamina will be a factor, but given this is clay, I see Nishikori getting through to the quarters.
AndyMurray, who has a poor record in Rome (8-9),will open with the Jeremy Chardy/Lukas Rosol winner. Murray has been in solid form as of late, he’s currently a finalist in Madrid, and won Munich, but with so much tennis over the past two weeks, he could be fatigued going into this tournament. Chardy has lost three straight, while Rosol has a pair of quarterfinals on clay this season, Chardy has a 2-0 clay h2h, but I still see Rosol winning a toss-up match. Murray just beat Rosol in a three setter in Munich, and presuming he does play in Rome, I still see him getting through his opening match, given his elite level of fitness. The next round should pose a problem however, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Goffin are both solid clay court threats. Goffin pushed Nishikori to three sets in Madrid while Tsonga is 4-3 on the surface this year. Tsonga won the h2h match with Goffin on clay in Monte Carlo this year, and thus he should advance in another hard to predict matchup. Tsonga faces Sam Querrey round 1, and Goffin will face a qualifier. Tsonga and Murray have never played on clay, though Murray has a decisive h2h edge on other surfaces. I made the mistake last week of picking Murray to go out early, but I’m going to do it again anyway, and pick Tsonga to go through to the quarters, allowing Murray to get much needed rest before the French Open, where he could pose a threat given his play in Munich and Madrid.
David Ferrer will get a tough round 2 matchup will Richard Gasquet, barring Reeshy loses to a qualifier. Ferrer is 2-0 on clay against Gasquet, but lost their last two h2h meetings. The Barcelona semifinalist and Madrid and Monte Carlo quarterfinalist has been steady but not in peak form on clay this year. Gasquet won the title in Estoril then fell in round 2 of Madrid. It’ll be an interesting match, and fun to watch, but Ferrer has to be the favorite on clay to advance to the round of 16. There he is likely to face the winner of Garcia-Lopez/Cilic. Martin Klizan, who has played good tennis this season, was injured in Madrid, and it’s uncertain if he’s healthy again, he will open with a qualifier, and then the winner of that will be the next opponent for GGL/Cilic. Klizan has a h2h win on clay over GGL, and if he’s healthy, he could reach the round of 16, but for now GGL has to be the pick in this interesting section. Ferrer is 3-0 on clay against his countryman, and thus should reach the quarters, though he may drop a set or two en route.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer, the champion in Istanbul, comes off a shock loss to Kyrgios in Madrid, and he’s never won the title in Rome (three previous finals). That said, he still should be able to recover his form and beat Pablo Cuevas, who he beat in Istanbul, in round 2. Cuevas will open with Italian journeyman Paolo Lorenzi. After Cuevas, the rather pedestrian draw for Federer will continue, as Philipp Kohlschreiber is his toughest possible round 3 opponent. Kohli will need to beat an injured Donald Young, and the winner of Florian Mayer/Kevin Anderson. Mayer is just 2-4 in his comeback, and Anderson has lost three straight. Kohlschreiber reached the final in Munich and the quarters in Barcelona (his last two losses in Madrid and Munich have come at the hands of Andy Murray), still Federer is a big step up in competition level and in 7 h2h matches, Kohlschreiber has won just a single set off the Swiss legend. Thus look for Federer to blitz through a pair of weak matches to reach the quarters.
Madrid semifinalist, and Monte Carlo finalist Tomas Berdych has been in fine form all season, and that should continue against Santiago Giraldo in round 2. Giraldo will open with Italian wild card Matteo Donati. He’s been in poor form, but he still should have enough game to beat the 20 year old who has 1 challenger final on his resume in 2015. Berdych should get a more interesting test against Grigor Dimitrov, a semifinalist in Istanbul, and a quarterfinalist in both Monte Carlo and Madrid. Dimitrov started the year off slow but he’s found a better run of form on clay, and thus should have little trouble dispatching Jerzy Janowicz, who has lost two straight, and Fabio Fognini who he just beat in 3 sets in Madrid. Fognini opens with American Steve Johnson, who is slowly getting used to playing on red clay it seems. The Italian will have fan support, but he’s still extremely moody and unpredictable. When it comes to Berdych-Dimitrov, the clay h2h is 1-1 and Dimitrov won their Rome meeting last year. That said, Berdych has been dare I say the most consistent player on tour this year, and his machinelike consistency gives him the edge to reach the quarters in yet another Masters event.
7 time Rome Champion, and current Madrid finalist Rafael Nadal should be able to blow past Adrian Mannarino/qualifier in round 2, and also defeat either John Isner or Leo Mayer in the round of 16. It’s a rather weak draw for the Spanish star. Isner will open with Joao Sousa, as he comes off the quarters in Madrid, a great result for him given it’s clay, while Mayer, who won a pair of matches in Madrid, faces Italian wild card Federico Gaio, a 23 year old with good results in futures. Isner should be able to reach the round of 16, but Nadal is 5-0 against him, with three wins on clay, including in Monte Carlo this year. Even when not at his best, Rafa has the edge against Isner, especially on clay.
Stan Wawrinka will take on Juan Monaco or a qualifier in his opening match, Stan the man continues to struggle, as he lost round 2 in Madrid, but he’s 4-0 against Monaco, including a win on clay this year, so regardless he should win his opening contest. After that Sock/Simon is likely to beckon in the round of 16, though Bolelli/Thiem are also options. All four of those players are very capable opponents and solid. Personally I’m backing Sock’s superior form to buzzsaw through to the round of 16, where he could upset Wawrinka. It’s perhaps unlikely, but Wawrinka is struggling, and appears mentally checked out, so the possibility is there. He’s the top 8 seed most likely to lose before the quarters but I still have him winning. Thiem, Bolelli, and Simon have all beaten Wawrinka before, while Thiem is the only player to do so on clay.
Dark Horses: Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, Jack Sock, Fabio Fognini
Kyrgios is a rather obvious dark horse choice, as he should reach the round of 16, and then we’ll see what kind of shape Nishikori is in. I wouldn’t give him much of a chance against Novak in the quarters, but he’s beaten Federer and Nadal, so who’s to say he can’t add another big four scalp to his list.
Goffin would need to beat Tsonga to get anywhere but if he does, like Jo, he has a great chance to benefit from Murray’s fatigue, and should he do so, beating Ferrer isn’t out of the question in the quarters. It’s an outside chance, but believable all the same.
Sock would have a great tournament just by beating Simon and Bolelli/Thiem, but if he upsets Wawrinka that would take the result to an even higher level of magnitude. All of those players would be tough opponents, but he has the game to do it, and can cement himself as the American #1 on clay if he runs the ringer.
Fognini could be a threat on home soil, the talent is there, but he’s incredibly hard to predict. He did push Dimitrov to three sets in Madrid, so if he can switch that result around you can’t entirely count him out against Berdych on clay, and given the circumstances.
Predictions
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Ferrer d. Tsonga
Nadal d. Wawrinka
Berdych d. Federer
Djokovic won his only clay court match with Nishikori, and given he’s been the best player in the world all season, and he’s rested, I have little doubt he’ll at least reach the semifinals in Rome. Ferrer is 2-0 on clay against Tsonga, and no matter who he faces (Murray/Tsonga/Goffin), he should benefit from the draw and reach the semis due to how its structured.
I don’t see Nadal losing before the semis either, as Wawrinka, in his current form, is extremely unlikely to pose a threat, especially with Nadal rounding into form. Nadal is 5-0 on clay against Wawrinka. I’m going with an upset in Berdych vs. Federer, Federer has never played as well in Rome compared to other tournaments, and he was shaky in Istanbul and Madrid. By contrast Berdych’s game has been reliable and a threat to everyone on tour this year. Federer is 3-0 on clay, and beat Berdych this year at IW, but I don’t feel he’s the same player at the moment.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Ferrer
Nadal d. Berdych
Djokovic actually tends to have to fight against Ferrer on clay (2-3 h2h) but he’s won the last two meetings on clay, he beat Ferrer this year on a hard court, and he’s been on fire all year. Nadal just beat Berdych in Madrid (he consistently does so with a 7-0 clay court h2h), thus it seems pretty inevitable that we’re headed for a Djokovic vs. Nadal final in Rome.
Final:
Djokovic d. Nadal
Djokovic defeated Nadal in Monte Carlo this year 7-5 6-3, and though Nadal is slightly better since that loss, he’s still not up to the same level he was, thus Djokovic should have the edge in a best 2/3 sets format. Nadal is capable of flashes of brilliance and plenty of hotshots in this classic rivalry, but Djokovic has the consistency to earn the win right now.
David Goffin Interview Highlight of 2015 ATP Munich Wednesday Marc Imperatori for Tennis Atlantic
Goffin won and we snagged an interview with him (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
Yesterday was my last day at the BMW Open. Four R2 Singles matches, all R1 Doubles matches as well as Pablo Andujar vs. Joao Souza, the only remaining R1 match, were scheduled. The real magic happened on court 1 with three consecutive exciting matches. I had an interview with the winner of the last one, David Goffin. You can read it further down.
You´ve got to love the atmosphere there. A small court that has stands behind and in front of the players´ benches. In close matches there are people standing all around the court to get a view on the match. Then there´s all the noise from the music played on centre court during changeovers or between matches. It all adds to a great “outside court” atmosphere.
The opening match was a battle between two clay-court specialists, Joao Souza (Brazil) and Pablo Andujar (Spain). The latter reached the final in Barcelona by beating Ferrer and Fognini. Souza on the other hand should be well known for his Davis Cup epics: Two days after winning against Carlos Berlocq in 5 hours, he came back from 2 sets down, saved several match points just to lose 13-15 in the fifth set against Leonardo Mayer in more than 7 hours (in the Brazil-Argentina WG Round 1 tie). In this match both players showed their abilities on the red dirt. Andujar was extremly consistent from the baseline by hitting with great depth and angles as well as constantly serving on the line. It was very hard for Souza to deal with that, so he had to go for big shots especially with his forehand. That was spectacular to watch at times and worked out pretty well. Yet, Andujar was just too solid. He only needed to save a break point in his second service game, while Souza was break point down in five of his ten service games, getting broken once in each set. Therefore Andujar won 6-4, 6-4. The Spaniard retired against Gerald Melzer in his match on Thursday.
In the following match Janko Tipsarevic from Serbia faced the Dominican tennis hero Victor Estrella Burgos. Tipsarevic did not participate in any tournament in 2014 and played his third tournament after his comeback in Munich, having had a 3-2 record going into this match. Estrella Burgos, who beat Dominic Thiem & Marin Cilic last week in Barcelona as well as Viktor Troicki in R1 here, was really on fire early in the match. He was hitting rocket forehands, top spin volley and even backhand winners and therefore got a quick 5-2 lead on serve. During the changeover the umpire let the courts remade which made the Dominican livid. He lost nine consecutive points but eventually served it out to win the first set 6-4. In the second set the two players dominated on serve. At 4-4 Estrella Burgos created a break opportunity, saved by a big serve of Tipsarevic. In the following tie-break the latter was playing extremly well whereas Estrella Burgos hit some unforced errors. Therefore Tipsarevic won the breaker 7-1.
In opposite to the previous set, this one started with three breaks, two of them by the Serbian. Both held their serves and especially Tipsarevic played much more aggressive than early on in the match, going for a backhand down the line very often. Thus he had the opportunity to serve for the match at 5-4. He started and ended the game with a double fault. It must be said that the other three points were high-quality. In the next game he had two break points to serve for the match once again. Estrella Burgos was able to save both of them with offensive tennis and win the game to go up 6-5. In the next game the Serbian had to hold his serve to stay in the match. In this stage VEB was hitting rocket forehands just like in the beginning of the match. Being match point down the first time Tipsarevic once again hit a great serve, the second time he hit an error. Hence Estrella Burgos won 6-4, 6-7(1), 7-5.
Estrella-Tipsarevic was a quality contest (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
In the quarter-final he will meet Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Spaniard easily dispatched Radek Stepanek by winning 6-0, 6-3.
In the last match on this court David Goffin fought past Simone Bolelli 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-1. All in all this match was a mixture of fantastic rallies paired with unforced errors. Anyway, it was quite spectacular. Neither player was troubled on serve in the first set. Then Bolelli won some of the mentioned great rallies to be 4-1 up on serve in the tie-break. Then the unforced errors by Bolelli appeared in addition to very consistent baseline play by Goffin. The latter won five straight points and eventually the set.
In the second set Bolelli seemed to have a letdown and got broken but immediately broke back. Goffin then had another break point opportunity in the third game but once again, both players won their service games to enforce another tie-break. Just like in the first set Bolelli was redlining his game in the beginning and got a 4-1 lead. This time he only lost the next two points and won the second breaker 7-4. In the last set David Goffin showed why he´s on the verge of breaking into the Top 20 again. His great movement and counter-punching lead to breaking Bolelli´s serve in the fourth game. In the following game the Italian had a break point to even it out but Goffin saved it by a well-timed net attack after a long rally. From then on Goffin was too good for Bolelli who kind of lost confidence. The Belgian broke again and served it out to love.
Q: Congratulations. As a spectator it was really great to watch your match, many nice rallies. What do you think about your performance?
DG: It was hard because the conditions are different than two days ago. It´s cooler today. The courts are slow and it was tough to move, so I did the maximum to win and I´m really happy because in January I lost against Simone in Sidney. He´s a great player and I think it´s a great performance to win against him today.
Q: You mentioned the match in Sidney. Today he caused a lot of trouble, too. What makes it so tough to play against him?
DG: Yeah, it´s because he has so much power. When he hits the ball, it´s tough for me to control it. His forehand is really strong. His serve, too. I had to serve really well and I was really solid. I waited for a good moment to break him in the last set. So it was a really solid match mentally.
Q: You had injury problems this year. At the Davis Cup you couldn´t play the first rubber. How do you feel now?
DG: Now I´m feeling better. I had some problems with my rip, just after Marseille. Then it always takes a few weeks to get better, but now I have no more pain.
Q: Good to hear! Last year you had a great run. You won two tournaments and many challenger titles, too. You were full of confidence. Today, you sometimes seemed more passive. Is it because you have less confidence now?
DG: No, I think I´m playing really good in practice but today it was tough conditions, tough to move. Simone is really aggressive so it´s tough to be aggressive for me. So maybe that´s why I was more passive today but I´m gonna try to be more aggressive next round.
Q: It changed a lot for you when you won all the titles in the last 6-8 months. Do you feel more pressure now, being almost a Top 20 player?
DG: Yeah, I´m #21 this week. I´m seeded now in tournaments like ATP 250s. Of course it´s pressure but it´s a good pressure. I have to play my game, even if I´m #21 or #40 or #50 I don´t care. I have to play my best tennis. If I´m playing well I think the result will come. I just have to focus on the way I play.
Q: What are your goals for 2015? Do you have specific goal or are you looking from tournament to tournament?
DG: No, I´m gonna try to win another tournament, maybe …
Q: This week?
DG: Why not? It should be good. Like I said, I´m really happy to be back on clay. I can win points at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so I´m gonna try to break the Top 20 for the first time. And then at the end of the season, I´ll see if I´m Top 20 or not.
Q: The last question: What do you think about your next opponent, Philipp Kohlschreiber?
DG: I played him twice, I think, and I won twice but it´s a different tournament. He´s playing at home. He´s always has a good level when he´s playing in Germany. I think he won the tournament twice. He loves the tournament, it will be a tough match for me.
As you can see in the quarterfinals David Goffin will face German No.1 Philipp Kohlschreiber. He beat Alexander Zverev 6-2, 6-4. In the post-match presser he was talking about the youngster´s game. Kohlschreiber was fully aware of Zverev´s potential. However, he also admitted that it was easy for him to dominate points due to Zverev´s court position far behind the baseline.
I also asked Kohlschreiber about David Goffin (and Simone Bolelli). He mentioned their encounter in Kitzbühl where the Belgian prevailed in straight sets. Goffin´s constant and well-placed shots as well as his great movement and returning ability made Kohlschreiber not really sound like he is keen on having to play against him.
Scores from Wednesday and Thursday
Wednesday (ATP Doubles) Peya/Soares d. Stakhovsky/Troicki 5-7 7-5 10-4
Paes/Stepanek d. Struff/Thiem 6-1 6-7 10-5
Murray/Rojer d. Klaasen/Rosol 7-5 6-2
Junaid/Shamasdin d. Fleming/Marray 6-3 2-6 16-14
Mayer/Moser d. Becker/Meffert 6-3 6-2
Begemann/Knowle d. Cermak/Vesely 7-6 6-4
Alex Zverev/Mischa Zverev d. Brown/Petzschner 6-4 6-4
Jamie Murray/Peers d. Estrella/Souza 6-3 6-2
Thursday Murray d. Mischa Zverev 6-2 6-2
Rosol d. Stakhovsky 7-5 6-2
Thiem d. Fognini 6-3 6-0
Gerald Melzer d. Andujar 4-1 ret.
Peya/Soares d. Paes/Stepanek 6-2 6-1
Andy Murray/Rojer d. Junaid/Shamasdin 6-2 6-2
Begemann/Knowle d. Mayer/Moser 6-0 6-4
Zverev/Zverev d. Jamie Murray/Peers 3-6 6-3 10-8
Tipsarevic upsets Tomic, Pospisil comes up short against Thiem 2015 ATP Munich Tuesday Marc Imperatori for Tennis Atlantic
Photo Credit: Marc Imperatori
In my report yesterday I mentioned the great weather in Munich. Somehow I officially jinxed it. Originally, play was scheduled to begin at 11 AM but the rain made it impossible to start until 3 PM. Thereafter it was still pretty cold which is why you´ll hear a lot about the conditions in the paragraphs below.
At 3 P.M. local time, four Singles main draw matches were played simultaneously. On centre court Lukas Rosol dismantled Florian Mayer 6-2, 6-2. Even though his season was average at best so far, the Czech played a fantastic match. He was very aggressive from the beginning (an early break certainly helped) and never let Mayer come back in the match. The body language was pretty obvious in this case. While Rosol seemed as focused and concentrated as against Nadal in his breakthrough win in 2012 at Wimbledon, Mayer looked like he didn´t really want to be out there in the cold. In the post match-interview Rosol revealed that he liked the conditions since it suits his big-hitting style. Also kudos to him for just wearing a t-shirt when the crowd was full of winter jackets! In R2 he will meet Sergiy Stakhovsky who beat lucky loser Mikhail Ledovskikh 6-0, 6-0 in 36 minutes.
Rosol was a cool customer (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
Florian Mayer explained in a short press conference that he was very happy with the way he played in Monte Carlo & Bucharest after his long injury time-out. He stated that he´s absolutely pain-free at the moment and elaborated why he didn´t commit to the Madrid Masters next week. He´s not willing to waste his protected ranking for a tournament that´s pretty bad for him anyway because of the altitude.
On Court 1 Dominic Thiem beat Vasek Pospisil 5-7 6-4 7-6(9). In the first set Pospisil broke for the set by playing a very good return game. In the second set Thiem broke at 3-3 and never gave it back. In the third set Thiem broke Pospisil in the opening game and had break points to go up a double break. However, he got tight as he admitted in the post-match presser, failed to convert them and eventually lost his serve, too. In the decisive tie-break both player saved match points until Thiem hit a great backhand down the line passing shot to finally win the match.
Pospisil played a great clay match but still came up short (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
In R2 his opponent will be “Nadal-killer“, and defending finalist Fabio Fognini. The Italian later won against Bastian Trinker, an Austrian lucky loser, 6-2 7-6. In yesterday´s report I claimed that Trinker lacked experience against ATP level players and that he had troubles when constantly set under pressure. After watching today´s match against Fognini I stand by my opinion. After less than 30 minutes Fognini was up 6-2 2-0. Trinker broke back from 40-0 down in the fourth game of the set because Fognini was a bit more sloppy and Trinker himself started to be more confident. Yet, the Italian was too good for him and was never really in trouble.
Fognini scored a comfortable result (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
On court 2, Janko Tipsarevic won a close encounter against Bernard Tomic 5-7 6-1 7-6(3). After being a break down in the second set Tomic more or less tanked the rest of set 2 including a beautiful monologue in which he promised to himself to never come back to this “fucking town“ of Munich again, even if they offered him money. Apparently he didn´t like to play in the cold. In the third set Tomic showed how much he changed in 2015 by upping his level again to play as well as in the opening set. At 5-4 he even had match point on Tipsarevic´ serve though the Serbian saved it with a great backhand winner down the line. Tomic may be upset now for staying too passive in this point. In the tie-break Tipsarevic got an early mini-break and dominated from then on. Tipsarevic´ opponent is Victor Estrella Burgos who already won his R1 match yesterday.
On court 3 Radek Stepanek defeated Farrukh Dustov by retirement. It must be said that Stepanek was leading 6-1, 4-1 anyway. With Roberto Bautista-Agut waiting in the next round, Stepanek will need to play his very best in R2.
In the next match on centre court (after Rosol vs. Mayer) we experienced another Germany vs. Czech Republic battle. Even though”battle“ might be slightly exaggerated. This time the German, Philipp Kohlschreiber, outplayed the Czech, Jiri Vesely, 6-1 6-2. In the post-match press conference Kohlschreiber said that he was surprised by how well he played today. Additionally, he admitted that the conditions favoured him a lot more than Vesely. Kohlschreiber´s tactical approach to use angles instead of power and to keep the ball in play instead of going for too much worked out very well. When asked about his next match against Alexander Zverev, Kohlschreiber praised Zverev´s talent and game.
Kohli was positive in press (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
In another R1 match of the day Mischa Zverev (Alex´ older brother) edged his fellow countryman Jan-Lennard Struff out 7-6, 3-6, 6-4. In opposite to yesterday Zverev had to play with more depth and be more aggressive than against Gombos. From what I saw he still played consistent tennis from the baseline with some variety and also he attacked in the right moment. Apparently this was enough to win the match. Mischa Zverev´s next opponent is no other than Andy Murray.
Zverev had a strange return position against Struff (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
In the remaining R1 match between Simone Bolelli and Dustin Brown, Bolelli won 6-1 7-6(2). The Italian will now face David Goffin, a player who impressed me very much in the training sessions and is my pick for reaching the final from the bottom half.
Pablo Andujar vs. Joao Souza as well as all doubles matches were shifted to tomorrow.
2015 ATP Munich Preview Steen Kirby and Marc Imperatori, Tennis Atlantic
Completing the trio of ATP World Tour events this week is the clay court event in Munich, with the strongest field of all tournaments this week. Alongside Estoril and Istanbul, Tennis Atlantic is pleased to have on-site credentialed coverage for the week from Marc Imperatori, who will be reporting on all the action from Bavaria, so keep checking the site for that, in the meantime, here is the preview.
2015 ATP Munich Preview
BMW Open by FWU AG ATP World Tour 250 Munich, Germany April 27-May 3, 2015 Prize Money: € 439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (3)
2: Gael Monfils (15)*
3: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
4: David Goffin (21)
*Monfils withdrew and was replaced by a lucky loser
All 8 seeds are top 30 players, as Munich has the strongest field by ranking this week.
A good form test for funky Flo Mo, still working his way back from injury, he has beaten Rosol on clay before at a challenger, but he’s lost two straight matches now in Monte Carlo and Bucharest, and will be looking to regain positive momentum on home soil. Rosol is just 1-2 on European clay this year, and is also badly in need of a win in this matchup. It’s hard to predict, but I have Mayer winning myself.
(6)Bernard Tomic vs. (WC)Janko Tipsarevic
Tomic is favored against Tipsarevic, who is also working his way back from injury, that said, Janko has a good chance at an “upset” in this one, Tomic is not a clay court player, and if Tipsarevic was even at half of his peak level he would be the favorite. They have never played before, and Tipsarevic is 2-2 since his comeback, while Tomic lost in round 2 of Monte Carlo. He’s had a reliable season so far, in fact the bets of his career in terms of consistency, but his play in Monte Carlo was worrisome, and I have Tipsarevic in an upset in this one, as he seems to be improving in every match he plays back on tour.
Kohli won a 4 setter against Vesely at the French in 2013, when Jiri was still a raw youngster, now though he’s reached his second career ATP final, coming off last week in Bucharest. His form has been incredibly streaky this season, where he is either winning matches (Auckland, Bucharest) or losing back to back to back (AO-Miami). That said, his form seems to have picked up with clay, while Kohlschreiber has not had a good season, and at 31 he may be slowing down. He did reach the quarters in Barcelona, and perhaps the ace in his pocket in this matchup is he’s a two time champ, so he knows the venue and plays well here. I expect three sets, and Kohlschreiber to edge out a fatigued Vesely in the end.
Top Half:
Newlywed Andy Murray is making his European clay debut in Munich as the top seed, and I’d expect him to defeat German JL Struff or qualifier Mischa Zverev in his opening match. After that, Rosol/Mayer or Sergiy Stakhovsky/lucky loser Mikhail Ledovskikh will also be underdogs against him in the quarters. Stako is not a clay courter, and the lucky loser will have a chance to defeat him, that said, I have Murray over Mayer in the quarters.Of note, though Murray is 2-0 on clay against Flo, Mayer actually beat Murray when he was coming back from back surgery in 2014 in Doha, only this time it’s Mayer coming back from an injury. Overall, with this 250 level event, Murray shouldn’t drop a set before the semis, as it’s an easy draw for him.
3 seed Roberto Bautista Agut will open with Farrukh Dustov, who hasn’t played in a bit, or qualifier Radek Stepanek a fading veteran, like Murray, I’d expect him to get off to an easy start against a weak opponent probably Stepanek, and then have more of a test in the quarters with either Tipsarevic/Tomic, or Viktor Troicki/Victor Estrella. Estrella continues to impress given his age, he beat Dominic Thiem and Marin Cilic in Barcelona to reach the round of 16, and also won a round in Monte Carlo, while Troicki has lost two straight matches. Troicki has a h2h win on indoor hard over Estrella, but I have VEB winning and then beating Tipsarevic as well to reach the quarters, before falling to the Barcelona quarterfinalist RBA who is 4-2 in last two clay court tournaments with a pair of top 30 wins. The seeds should hold and a Murray-RBA semi is likely.
2 seed Gael Monfils withdrew with a knee injury, and thus qualifier Gerald Melzer will take his place. Melzer is likely to matchup with Barcelona finalist Pablo Andujar who made a shock run to the final there (7-4 on clay in 2015), depending if Andujar is tired, and we’ll know based off of how he plays against the struggling Joao Souza, he should reach the quarters, and he’s likely to face Fabio Fognini, who he routined in the Barcelona quarters at that stage. Fognini beat Nadal in Barcelona (for the second time this year), but he’s been pedestrian all season against players not named Nadal, not to mention incredibly erratic. That said he was a finalist here last year so he’s had success, and thus should beat lucky loser Bastian Trinker, and then the Vasek Pospisil/Dominic Thiem winner. Thiem has talent, and he’s done well on clay, but he’s struggling right now, and thus look for Fognini to win, and also beat a fatigued Andujar to reach the semis.
David Goffin will face qualifier Dustin Brown, or Simone Bolelli in his opening match, Bolelli beat Goffin this year on hard courts, and he reached the quarterfinals in Bucharest, while Goffin will seek to improve his clay prospects in just his second tournament on the surface this season. That will be a tough match to pick, and I have Bolelli going through to face the Vesely/Kohlschreiber winner, as Kohli should beat Alex Zverev/Benjamin Becker in round 2, a battle of the German young gun against a veteran German.
Kohli is 2-0 against Bolelli on clay, and given his previous success here, I have the veteran German into the semis.
Bolelli has a chance to reach the final presuming he can upset Goffin, Kohlschreiber/Vesely, and perhaps Monfils (or Fognini/Thiem) in the semis. He just lost to Monfils in Bucharest, and would have to flip the script to do that, that said he’s a talented shotmaker who can have good runs of success on clay, consistency has been his primary issue.
Predictions
Semis: Murray d. Bautista Agut
Kohlschreiber d. Fognini
Murray has never played RBA on clay, that said, even though clay is his worst surface, the Spaniard hasn’t been a world beater as of late and thus I’d give a consistent Murray, who has been great against all but elite players the edge.
Kohli has a 2-1 h2h against Fognini, and their clay court h2h is split 1-1, Fognini may be in better form, but he’s terribly unreliable, and Kohlschreiber tends to play well in Munich, thus I have him through.
Final: Murray d. Kohlschreiber
Look for Murray to get his first clay court title this week with the withdrawal of Monfils, he beat Kohli in a thriller at RG last year, and he’s outperformed the German in terms of level of play this season.
2015 ATP Miami Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Tennis Atlantic is pleased to have credentialed onsite coverage of the Miami Open all week long from our correspondent Esam Taha who will be reporting from the grounds of the Miami Open on all of the happenings. As an appetizer to that coverage, here is a preview of the Men’s draw.
2015 ATP Miami Preview
Miami Open presented by Itau
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Miami, FL, USA
March 25-April 4, 2015
Prize Money: $5.381,235
Top 8 seeds (All 32 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Rafael Nadal (3)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Kei Nishkori (5)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: David Ferrer (7)
7: Stan Wawrinka (8)
8: Tomas Berdych (9)
Two-time Miami Champ and Indian Wells finalist Roger Federer opted to skip Miami to spend time with his family, Marin Cilic is out with a shoulder injury, and Richard Gasquet (back) and Nick Kyrgios (ankle) join Cilic on the list of injured players out of Miami. Veterans Philipp Kohlschreiber, Julian Benneteau, and Andreas Seppi are also out, but the rest of the top 50 will be playing this Masters event.
The more accomplished Dolgopolov should be favored against Berankis, but he will be under great pressure in Miami, as he’s defending quarterfinalist points, his ranking already having dropped out of the top 60 due to his failure to defend his semifinalist points from Indian Wells. Berankis meanwhile is one of the biggest underachievers on tour, as he was a former top junior and now at 24 is still ranked outside the top 70. That said, the undersized ballstriker Berankis is in relatively good form as he reached a semifinal at a challenger in Poland, and the quarterfinals in Zagreb in his last two events. Dolgopolov meanwhile isn’t playing that poorly, even with his ranking having dropped, as he won two matches in Indian Wells, and prior to that reached the quarters in Delray and Acapulco, all outdoor hard court events. Dolgo has a prior win over Berankis at the Australian Open, and I still expect him to win but this match could be closer than expected between talented shotmakers.
Steve Johnson vs. Mikhail Kukushkin
Johnson, who is on the verge of reaching the top 40 and hasn’t lost a match in the opening round at any tournament this season, is favored, and should beat the top Kazakh player Kukushkin, but expect a competitive contest. Johnson is 2-0 against Kukushkin in his career, with both meetings taking place on outdoor hard, but Kukushkin has been streakily good at points this season, including in Davis Cup play, and in Sydney where he reached the final as a qualifier. Johnson comes off the third round in IW and has three ATP quarterfinals, all on hard courts, as his best results on the year, while Kukushkin was injured in his last match, an opening round exit in Indian Wells. This is another good form test for Stevie J.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Simone Bolelli
A battle of talented veterans with big hitting groundstrokes, Bolelli has a lone win over Baghdatis years ago but that was on clay, and Baghdatis may have the inside track to even up the h2h and win this match, given his superior recent form. The Cypriot veteran reached the quarterfinals in the stacked Irving Challenger in between IW and Miami, with two wins over quality ATP players and has an ATP semifinal (Zagreb) and a third round showing in Melbourne on his resume. Bolelli has a pair of quarterfinals on his resume but he’s a pedestrian 2-3 in his last 5 matches, though two of those losses were to top 10 players (Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic). This match should be enjoyable as both players can really work the ball into tight spaces and are tactically smart.
Del Potro is playing his first match since Sydney, having rehabbed his injury again, and he will face off with the IW doubles champion Pospisil, who has yet to reach even a quarterfinal at any tournament in singles this season. 4 of Pospisil’s 7 losses this season have come against top 10 players, including his most recent one in Indian Wells to Andy Murray, and with that in mind, unless fatigue is an issue, I still expect the Canadian to beat the rusty Argentine, though with time Del Potro can return to being a top 20 player on the tour.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (WC)Andrey Rublev
17 year old wild card Rublev, the top Russian young gun on the tour, will be playing his second ATP event of the season, as he was also granted a wild card in Delray Beach just up the road from Miami. In that tournament, he reached the second round as he beat Dudi Sela in his opening match, and he has a nice chance to score his second ATP win over the dirtballer PCB. Carreno Busta is just 2-7 this season and he’s lost three straight matches, on top of that, he’s not a quality hard court player. That said, Rublev may not be his best either as he lost in qualies to Kyle Edmund in Irving. Though I doubt he will dominate, I do have Rublev winning this match in an upset ranking wise, though his future is much brighter than Carreno’s.
Stakhovsky has been in good form this season, while Almagro is 0-2 on hard courts, and will be playing his first match since January on the surface. Almagro does have a lone h2h win on hard courts over Stakhovsky in 2011, and he played relatively well on South American clay but he’s still finding his feet having come off an injury and Stako should be a small favorite over the fan-favorite Spaniard. While Stako is just 2-2 on his last four, prior to that he had two quarterfinals and a semifinal showing all at the ATP level post Australian Open, and neither of his losses, to Tomas Berdych in Indian Wells, and Tim Smyczek in Irving were bad, so I have him getting through this with his serve and volley style in 3 sets.
Djokovic’s section:
The four-time, and defending champion Novak Djokovic, who also triumphed in Indian Wells on Sunday, will open his Miami Open campaign against most likely Martin Klizan, assuming Klizan defeats clay courter Paolo Lorenzi. Though Klizan hits a heavy ball, and has the ability to trouble top players, I don’t see him giving Novak much trouble. In the third round, Djokovic, who tends be bothered by big servers, could be in for a struggle against 30 seed Gilles Muller however. The Luxembourger will face Malek Jaziri or qualifier Steve Darcis in his opening match. Jaziri broke a 5 match losing streak by winning a round in Indian Wells, and his h2h is 1-1 with Darcis, the serve and volleying veteran. Muller comes off the semis in Irving, so his serve and volleying appears to be clicking, thus I expect him to beat either Darcis or Jaziri. Djokovic beat Muller in 3 sets at the AO this year, so he should still be favored, not to mention he handled the big serving of John Isner well in Indian Wells.
16 seed Tommy Robredo found some form in Indian Wells as the veteran rejuvenated himself in the desert and reached the third round with a top 15 win over Grigor Dimitrov. That said, I have Dolgopolov advancing over him as long as he beats Berankis, in what would be their first career meeting. Look for the Dolgopolov/Robredo winner to have an inside track to meet Djokovic in the round of 16, as veterans Lleyton Hewitt and Thomaz Bellucci, along with 19 seed Pablo Cuevas are either out of form, or poor on hard courts. Even without having played a singles match since the AO, Hewitt, in his final season, has to be somewhat of a favorite to reach the third round with Bellucci and Cuevas both struggling on hard courts.
David Ferrer, a former finalist, will open with Jiri Vesely or Federico Delbonis. Ferrer lost to Bernard Tomic, earlier than he would have liked, in Indian Wells, but he always tends to play better in Miami, and he can’t be expected to have a hard time with his draw in the early rounds. Delbonis prefers clay and Vesely was sick in Indian Wells, after that, Lukas Rosol, who reached the round of 16 in Indian Wells and broke a lengthy losing streak, is likely opponent. The seeded Rosol will have to deal with the big serving Sam Groth or young gun qualifier Alex Zverev in round 2. Ferrer is 3-0 on hard courts against Rosol with just 1 set dropped.
12 seed Gilles Simon has a rather difficult draw, if he is to reach the round of 16. First up will be the Kukushkin/Johnson winner, and though Simon reached the round of 16 in IW, he didn’t beat any top players to do so, and Johnson is playing well right now, on home soil I’d give the American a great shot at the upset and have him through in my own bracket. Simon/Johnson is likely to face Ivo Karlovic in round 2, assuming Karlovic beats a qualifier (either Michael Berrer or Alejandro Falla both veterans), as he’s a seeded bye. Johnson just beat Karlovic in Indian Wells, and I have him doing so again to reach the round of 16 as an unseeded player.
Nishikori’s section:
Kei Nishikori, who exited in the round of 16 in Indian Wells, likewise with Ferrer earlier than he would have liked, gets his own section of the draw this time and will look to do his best with it. The Japanese should dispatch either Andrey Golubev or slumping veteran Mikhail Youzhny in the second round, and then get a more stern test against the Baghdatis/Bolelli winner or 32 seed Viktor Troicki in round 3. Troicki shockingly exited in the first round in Indian Wells and will look to do better in Miami. That said, Baghdatis is 4-1 against him, with all their matches taking place on hard court, while Bolelli is 2-2 on hard courts, though Troicki won their meeting this year in Sydney. I have Baghdatis into round 3 in my own bracket, and again the h2h favors him, as he’s 4-1 against Nishikori. Even more shockingly, all of those matches came on hard courts, and his four wins were all in straights. Even with that h2h it’s hard for me to pick against this top 5 version of Nishikori, but it does create an interesting upset opportunity for those bold enough to pick it.
Nishikori or another player should be on track for a round of 16 meeting with Roberto Bautista Agut, the 13 seed, if the seeds hold true to form. RBA, who hasn’t had the best of seasons, but is still a top 20 player, exited in his second match in Indian Wells, and will open with Jerzy Janowicz or qualfier Edouard Roger-Vasselin in round 2. RBA beat JJ in Miami last year and he’s in awful form, going just 1-3 since retiring in the Montpellier final. The qualifier ERV may even have a chance of advancing given clay courter Diego Sebastian Schwartzman beat JJ in Indian Wells. That said, JJ is 5-0 against ERV in the h2h and beat him last week in Irving. In the third round, Borna Coric or 18 seed David Goffin are the most likely opponent for Bautista Agut. Goffin, who just 2-3 since Melbourne, may have trouble with Coric, who has played well this season, and qualified in Indian Wells. Though Goffin beat Coric in Basel last year, that match went 3 sets and the young gun is improving all the time. He will have a repeat of his round 1 in Indian Wells against Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 1. RBA-Coric is intriguing matchup, and I’m going bold and putting Coric into the round of 16 myself.
9 seed Grigor Dimitrov continues to play below his ranking, he will get the Pospisil/Del Potro winner in the opening round, and if he gets through that, John Isner could prove to be trouble in the third round. Isner played his best tournament of the season as he reached the round of 16 in Indian Wells, and on home soil he should defeat the Golubev/Carreno Busta winner to setup a meeting with Dimitrov. They have never met before, but I have Isner through, as I feel he’s rounding into form and Dimitrov has performed below expectations all season.
5 seed and Indian Wells semifinalist Milos Raonic will look to remain immune to upsets against lower ranked players. His first match will be against Pablo Andujar or Teymuraz Gabashvili, with both players in poor form, and Gabashvili having failed to win an ATP match this season. Raonic has a good draw, as he should also dominate with his big serve against Jeremy Chardy/Ryan Harrison/Jurgen Melzer in the third round. Melzer qualified for IW, and Harrison is playing reasonably well this year and Chardy is just 7-8 on the season, though he’s the seed, I have Melzer or Harrison through to the third round, and in my own bracket I have Harrison, who will then fall to Raonic almost certainly.
Two-time champion and last year’s finalist Andy Murray, who also reached the semis in Indian Wells, in a good week for him, will open with Donald Young or Rendy Lu. Young should beat Lu on home soil, given he’s playing well against all but the top players, but Murray dominated him in Davis Cup and I expect the same again. In round 3, Murray will also have a relatively easy draw, as the seed is the 27 Santiago Giraldo, while Kyle Edmund or qualifier Robin Haase are the other options. Edmund reached the semifinals in Irving, and with Giraldo struggling, he has a nice shot at the third round, as does Haase who played well in qualifying and shocked Stan Wawrinka in Indian Wells, That was just his second main draw win of the year in IW, and he’s 4-1 in his last five matches. Giraldo is just 1-4 in his last five. I have Haase into the third round to face Murray, who will then reach the round of 16.
15 seed Kevin Anderson is the seeded favorite for the round of 16, Victor Estrella or Sam Querrey will be his first opponent, and neither of whom are in great form, though Anderson lost early in Indian Wells. Big Kev, like Murray, has a good draw, as his round 3 opponent will be Leo Mayer/Jarkko Nieminen/Marinko Matosevic. Mayer much prefers clay, Matosevic is struggling, and Nieminen is a fading veteran to some extent, though I have the Flying Fin into the third round, Anderson should handle him to reach the round of 16 given the 3-0 h2h record.
7 seed Stan Wawrinka was shocked by Robin Haase in Indian Wells and will look to recover in Miami. His first match could doom him to another opening match defeat as wild card Thanasi Kokkinakis is likely to be his first opponent, assuming the teenage Aussie beats Carlos Berlocq, a clay courter. Wawrinka is on a two match losing streak, and Kokkinakis has won 6 of his last 8, including a round of 16 showing in Indian Wells, where he beat three ATP caliber opponents before losing to his countryman Bernard Tomic in 3 sets. Given fatigue may be somewhat of a factor, I favor Wawrinka to recover and beat Kokkinakis, but that one could very well go three sets as the Aussie is a warrior who doesn’t go out easy in his matches. Wawrinka/Kokkinakis have the inside track for the round of 16, as 28 seed Adrian Mannarino, who is at a career high ranking after reaching the round of 16 in IW, is the likely third round opponent, assuming Mannarino beats Joao Sousa/Albert Ramos. Ramos won two matches in a row on hard courts in Indian Wells, and may upset Sousa who is struggling. Wawrinka and Mannarino have never met.
10 seed Feliciano Lopez, a quarterfinalist in IW, will face Dominic Thiem or Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in round 2. DSS is 2-2 on hard courts this year and Thiem has really struggled this season (4-7 on the year), thus I have DSS through in an upset. Lopez should face Indian Wells doubles champion, and round of 16 participant Jack Sock in the third round. Sock, who won three matches from a set down in his first tournament back since a hip injury, faces Go Soeda in his first match, and then 21 seed Fabio Fognini would be his round 2 opponent. Sock beat Fognini in the doubles final, and Fognini has struggled in singles all season, especially on hard courts. Given how well he played in IW, improving throughout the tournament, Miami should bode well for Sock, having knocked off the rust off his game. Lopez has a 1-0 h2h record against Sock, and he’s playing well, so that should be enough to get him through to the round of 16, though it should be a quality match.
A four-time finalist, though he has never won the Miami Open, Rafa will open with the Stakhovsky/Almagro winner, which is not the easiest opening match to have. Still I’d expect the IW quarterfinalist to prevail and setup a third round meeting with Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco has a qualifier, either James Duckworth or Damir Dzumhur in round 2, and given Nadal is 6-0 against him on hard courts, Nadal should reach the round of 16.
14 seed Ernests Gulbis continues to struggle, and Juan Monaco should give him the boot in round 2. Monaco opens with qualifier Ruben Bemelmans and is playing well at the moment as he’s 8-3 in his last three tournaments, he beat Marin Cilic in Indian Wells. Gulbis is just 1-6 in his 7 matches this season and their h2h is relatively even. Benjamin Becker/Jan-Lennard Struff and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all have relatively equal odds to reach the third round. Struff and Becker, Davis Cup teammates, meet in the opening round, and I have Struff winning that one, and then I have GGL advancing and snapping a two match losing streak in round 2. Struff does have a lone h2h win over GGL last season, but the Spaniard is slightly more talented. Monaco and GGL have a 2-2 hard court h2h, and I have Monaco reaching the round of 16 given his good form, the Miami crowd should also be behind him.
8 seed Tomas Berdych played well in Indian Wells, except for the semifinal, and he should get through his first match against either Hyeon Chung, a young gun wild card, or Marcel Granollers. Berdych should also be favored over Bernard Tomic, though the 25 seed has had an excellent season. He withdrew from the IW quarterfinals with tooth and back problems, and he could lose to qualifier Austin Krajicek or Denis Istomin in round 2, but no matter, Berdych, who beat him in Melbourne, has the inside track to reach the round of 16. I have Krajicek upsetting Tomic in my own bracket. Istomin just beat Krajicek in IW, but I also see that result reversing, as it was a close match and AK played well in qualies.
11 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and 17 seed Gael Monfils are both back on tour this week. Tsonga opens with qualifier Adrian Menendez-Maceiras or American Tim Smyczek. Smyczek was a finalist in Irving, and Tsonga hasn’t played a match this year, so with rust playing a factor, I’m going with Smyczek in a big upset. With Monfils 9-3 on the season, he should have a better run than Tsonga, his first opponent will be non-hard courter Dusan Lajovic or qualifier Filip Krajinovic, a Serb like Lajovic. After that expect him to defeat Smyczek/Tsonga for a spot in the round of 16.
Dark Horses: Steve Johnson, Borna Coric, Jack Sock, Juan Monaco
Johnson will likely need to beat Kukushkin, then seeds Simon and Karlovic but he has a shot at reaching the round of 16 and facing Ferrer. He would be an underdog there, but as Tomic showed, Ferrer is beatable.
Coric must beat Goffin and likely RBA to reach the round of 16, but it would be massive result for the young gun who has already reached a pair of 500 level semifinals in his career, including in Dubai earlier this year.
Sock, presuming he beats Fognini and upsets Lopez, would have a winnable match with Wawrinka/Kokkinakis likely on his plate in the round of 16, and could reach the quarterfinals on home soil.
I have Monaco reaching the round of 16 with wins over seeds Gulbis and Garcia-Lopez, though he will have little chance against Nadal, his best pal, at that stage.
Predictions:
Round of 16: Djokovic d. Dolgopolov
Ferrer d. Johnson
Nishikori d. Coric
Raonic d. Isner
Lopez d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Anderson
Berdych d. Monfils
Nadal d. Monaco
Djokovic is 3-0 against Dolgo and playing lights out right now, Ferrer and Johnson have never met but I have the Spaniard returning to his gold standard and reaching the quarters, likewise Nishikori should have the edge on Coric by this stage, and Raonic is a better version of Isner, given their similar styles even though Isner is 2-0 in the h2h, with both meetings having come on hard courts.
Wawrinka is 2-1 against Lopez on hard courts, but Feli is playing better right now so I have him winning an upset. Murray is 2-1 against Anderson and plays well in Miami, Berdych is 3-0 on hard against Monfils, and Nadal is 6-1 against Monaco, though that lone loss was their only hard court meeting. Given they are best friends and frequent doubles partner, they know each other well and Nadal is likely to improve, not get worse in Miami, as he’s played more matches on hard courts.
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Ferrer
Raonic d. Nishikori
Murray d. Lopez
Nadal d. Berdych
Djokovic has won his last six hard court meetings against Ferrer, and given how well he’s playing right now, has to be a strong favorite. Raonic is just 2-5 against Nishikori, and lost to him this season but Raonic won their outdoor hc match in Brisbane, and he’s playing very well right now, in what should be a close match. Murray just beat Lopez in IW, and it’s a good matchup for him, and Nadal normally dominates Berdych. Even though Tomas won their AO meeting, I have Nadal getting revenge and reaching the semis.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Raonic
Murray d. Nadal
Djokovic is 5-0 against Raonic and beat him this year at the AO. Nadal and Murray are a close 6-5 in the hard court h2h, and Murray is playing better right now on the surface, so thus I have him sneaking past to the final in a close match.
Final:
Djokovic d. Murray
Djokovic dominated Murray in Indian Wells, and likewise in Australia, Murray has struggled against the other big 3, and Djokovic is too much for him right now. If Novak is committed and focused, he’ll win Miami again, just like last year’s quarterfinal.
Round 1 of the 2015 Davis Cup World Group was filled with drama as it brought out the best parts of the Davis Cup, with upsets, comebacks from 2 sets down, and passionate fan support at sites around the globe as players donned the national colors and put in their best effort on behalf of their country. Here is a review of all the action over this past weekend.
Argentina clawed back from 2-1 down in the tie as they were pushed to extra time at home against Brazil. The Friday singles rubbers were split, with Joao Souza winning the first rubber in five sets over Carlos Berlocq, and Leo Mayer claiming the second rubber for Argentina with a four set win over Thomaz Bellucci. Brazil won the doubles as expected as Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares took out Berlocq and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in straights.
On Sunday, Mayer led the Argentinian battle back, he avoided a collapse from 2 sets up and beat Souza in the second longest match in tennis history, it went over 6 hours as he triumphed on his twelfth match point chance 15-13 in the fifth set. Every set went to at least 5-5 as both players were, as to be expected, exhausted at the end, with Mayer having just that extra edge.
Due to that 6 hour+ match, the final decisive rubber between Federico Delbonis and Bellucci was pushed into extra time on Monday morning, and Delbonis, inspired by Mayer’s triumph, defeated Bellucci in 4 sets, as the Brazilian veteran was the weak link for the team this time.
Kazakhstan d. Italy 3-2
The biggest upset of the weekend came in Astana, as Mikhail Kukushkin inspired his lower ranked Kazakh teammates to a victory over an erratic Italian team that proved to be in disarray by Sunday. Kukushkin beat Simone Bolelli in straights on Friday though Andreas Seppi evened up the tie with a win over Andrey Golubev in 4 sets. The Italians won the doubles rubber as Bolelli and Fabio Fognini beat Alex Nedovyesov and Golubev in four sets, giving them a 2-1 lead.
On Sunday, the Italian choke job was on however, Seppi lost to Kukushkin in a very poor showing, as he failed to take even a set, and then Fognini made matters worse losing in five sets to Nedovyesov from 2 sets to 1 up, after he gotten it back to 5-5 in the fifth set.
It wasn’t the best attended tie of the weekend, but the fans who were in attendance were greatly pleased to see their home boys advancing as Italy will have to fight off relegation now.
The one-two punch of Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil was too much for Kei Nishikori and Japan. Though Kei performed well, beating Pospisil in straights on Friday, and Raonic in 5 sets on Sunday, the rest of the Japanese team fared poorly. Raonic beat Ito in a straight set drubbing on Friday, Daniel Nestor teamed with Pospisil to win the doubles point in five sets over Go Soeda and Yasutaka Uchiyama, and Pospisil dispatched Soeda in a live fifth rubber without dropping a set.
As mentioned in my preview, one has to wonder what might have been for team Japan if they had selected their young guns, Yoshihito Nishioka and Taro Daniel, rather than journeyman veterans Soeda and Ito, in my mind it would have increased their chances to win the tie.
Belgium d. Switzerland 3-2
The highest ranked player on the Swiss team, Yann Marti, stormed off and quit the team after he was not selected to play on Friday singles, and his selfish behavior may have cost his nation the tie, as the severely underdog, and shorthanded Swiss performed admirably, forcing a live fifth rubber to be played on the road in Liege, Belgium.
Henri Laaksonen deserves great credit for the fact the Belgians had to sub in their number one David Goffin, who originally wasn’t planning to play, in order to finish off that fifth rubber. Laaksonen was responsible for both Swiss rubber wins, as he beat Ruben Bemelmans on Friday from 2 sets to love down, Bemelmans collapsing down the stretch, and then beat Steve Darcis in the fourth rubber, also in five sets, as he outlasted the veteran serve and volleyer.
The Belgians earned wins from Darcis over Michael Lammer on Friday, from Bemelmans and Niels Desein over Adrian Bossel and Lammer in Saturday doubles, and as mentioned from Goffin over Bossel in straights, as Belgium had to scratch and claw against a journeyman team to book their place in the quarterfinals.
Australia d. Czech Republic 3-2 (3-1 live rubbers)
Team Australia did have to play live rubber tennis on Sunday, but they were the better team all weekend against the Czechs. Thanasi Kokkinakis added yet another massive accomplishment in his burgeoning career, the young Aussie was selected to open the tie for the Aussies, and he pulled off a brilliant fight back against Lukas Rosol from 2 sets to love down, to give Australia a 1-0 start. Kokkinakis struggled to deal with Rosol’s ballbashing for the first two frames, but won the final three sets 7-5 7-5 6-3, with late breaks sets 3 and four, to grab the victory, never losing belief in himself, as Rosol’s own belief eventually wilted. Bernard Tomic followed up the Kokkinakis triumph with a routine win over fellow young gun Jiri Vesely to put Australia 2-0 up.
The Czechs forced the Aussies to close off the tie on Sunday with an upset win in the doubles by Vesely and Adam Pavlasek over Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt in five sets, but Tomic secured the tie, defeating a struggling Rosol in straight sets in the fourth rubber.
The dead rubber was won by Jan Mertl to conclude the tie at 3-2 in favor of Australia, Mertl dispatching Sam Groth, who appeared to be ready to board his airplane.
France d. Germany 3-2 (3-0 live rubbers)
France got off to a great start and won their tie on Saturday against Germany, Gilles Simon had to survive an onslaught against Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening rubber, finally sneaking past the pesky Germany 10-8 in the fifth, but it was much easier for Gael Monfils, who beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in straights, and also for Nicolas Mahut and Julien Benneteau, who secured the tie with a win in Saturday doubles over Benjamin Becker and Andre Begemann.
Kohlschreiber and Struff beat Simon and Mahut in the dead rubbers to conclude the tie at 3-2 in favor of the French.
Borna Coric lost a 2 sets to love lead against Viktor Troicki in the second Friday singles rubber, and that was the primary contributing factor to the Serbian sweep over the Croatian team. Novak Djokovic beat Mate Delic, and as mentioned, Troicki beat Coric in 5 sets. Djokovic and Nenad Zimonjic locked the result of the tie on Saturday with a win over Marin Draganja and Franko Skugor in doubles.
Filip Krajinovic and Troicki won the dead rubbers over Skugor and Delic.
The quarterfinals in the World Group will feature France traveling to face Great Britain, Kazakhstan traveling to face Australia, Serbia going to Argentina and Canada heading to Belgium.
Action Outside The World Group
Santiago Giraldo and Colombia beat Pablo Cuevas and Uruguay 3-2, the inspiring Victor Estrella led the Dominican Republic past Barbados with a pair of wins and a 3-2 overall result, Michael Venus and New Zealand beat China 4-1.
In Europe, Russia beat Denmark 4-1 as Andrey Kuznetsov won two singles rubbers, Austria scratched past Sweden 3-2, from 1-2 down going into play on Sunday. Elias Ymer shocked Jurgen Melzer for a Friday singles win, but he couldn’t defeat Andreas Haider-Maurer on Sunday, and Gerald Melzer secured the tie with a fifth rubber win. Gerald chosen to start over his older, more accomplished brother Jurgen.
Martin Klizan went 3-0 between singles and doubles as Slovakia blanked Slovenia 5-0, Romania demolished Israel 5-0, as Marius Copil and Adrian Ungur both won twice, and Poland beat Lithuania 3-2, as Jerzy Janowicz scored two singles wins.
In group 2 action, the young Chilean squad swept Peru 5-0, Turkey beat South Africa 3-2 as Cem Ilkel, a 19 year old ranked outside of the worlds top 400 beat Ruan Roelofse 6-4 in the fifth set, and Marsel Ilhan scored two wins in singles. Last but not least, Joao Sousa led Portugal to a 4-1 win over Morocco.
2015 Davis Cup World Group Round 1 Preview Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2015 Davis Cup World Group begins on Friday and runs through Sunday as the sixteen top teams in the World will battle it out to avoid having to fight against relegation, and, to reach the quarterfinals. There are at least two marquee ties this weekend, and six other intriguing ones, all but one of which take place on indoor hard court. Here is a look at all the action in Davis Cup this weekend, with an exception of one of those marquee ties, Great Britain vs. the USA in Glasgow, which our journalist Joe Craven will be previewing since he has media credentials and will have reports from Glasgow through the weekend.
Czech Republic vs. Australia
Australia, my personal favorites to win the Davis Cup this year, have a great shot at pulling off a road upset, and their case for victory is further advanced by the fact the Czechs lack their usual tandem of Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek to lead their team in the tie. Berdych and Stepanek are filled in for by Lukas Rosol, and Jiri Vesely both of whom have Davis Cup experience, and Jan Mertl and Adam Pavlasek, who aren’t as experienced. Australia has Davis Cup legend Lleyton Hewitt, who is playing his final DC as a player, and will be taking over as their coach next season, leading a young upstart squad that has Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, and Thanasi Kokkinakis all available to participate. On indoor hard, and home soil, the Czechs do have at least some chance, but Tomic has had a solid season, Hewitt always ups his game for Davis Cup, and Groth’s powerful serve is always dangerous on this surface. Vesely, and Rosol, the two players expected to play singles for the home team, are both carrying four match losing streaks going into this tie, and with form playing a factor, Australia could well blank their opponents, and at minimum should win 3-1. The young Kokkinakis will be serving as the #2 singles player for the Aussies, and should garner much needed experience.
France won this matchup last year, this year it’ll be on indoor hard in Frankfurt, and the French should still be favored with a team of Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau (a late addition), and Nicolas Mahut. With Mahut on the team as a doubles specialist. The defending Davis Cup finalists will be up against a German team led by Philipp Kohlschreiber, along with Jan-Lennard Struff, Benjamin Becker and doubles specialist Andre Begemann. With Simon and Monfils in better form than Kohlschreiber and company, 2 singles win are likely assured for team France. That said, the play of Struff, and especially Becker will be key if Germany is to pull an upset, both can rise to the occasion, with Struff having some of his previous best results indoors, and Becker in career best form over the past 8 months or so. I don’t expect it to happen, but the chance is there, and if Kohlschreiber was in better form, the German team would pack a stronger punch and this tie would be more of a battle, but as it stands France should get through something like 3-1 or 3-2.
The Pick: France
Canada vs. Japan
Japan won this tie last year, and Kei Nishikori continues to be the marquee player for them, but Canada should be favored given they will be on home soil in Vancouver, and have a stronger all around team with Milos Raonic joined by Vasek Pospisil, Frank Dancevic, and doubles specialist Daniel Nestor. Outside of Nishikori, Japan doesn’t have another top 80 player with Tatsuma Ito, Go Soeda and Yasutaka Uchiyama making up the rest of their team. Personally I was surprised that Japan didn’t choose at least one of their young guns, Taro Daniel and Yoshihito Nishioka for the team. Raonic-Nishikori will be a quality singles rubber match, and Raonic won their meeting this year in a third set tiebreak in Brisbane, though Nishikori has a long term 4-2 h2h edge in their rivalry. No matter who wins that, Pospisil has to be favored to go 2-0 in singles, and Pospisil-Nestor is a strong doubles pairing, so look for Canada to win 3-2 or 3-1 no matter the efforts of Nishikori.
The Pick: Canada
Serbia vs. Croatia
If Marin Cilic, or even Ivo Karlovic and Ivan Dodig, were able to represent team Croatia, this tie would be much more competitive, but as it stands, the Croats have no top 100 singles players besides the teenager Borna Coric, who is rising, and coming off a run to the semis in Dubai, but lacks experience. Coric’s “B Team” teammates are Mate Delic, Franko Skugor and Marin Draganja with the latter two expected to serve as doubles specialists. Serbia counters with a very strong team led by Novak Djokovic, who is joined by Viktor Troicki, playing his first Davis Cup in a while, having re-entered the worlds top 50 in singles, Filip Krajinovic, who prefers clay, and doubles specialist Nenad Zimonjic, a battle tested veteran who helps anchor the team. On indoor hard, and on home soil in this battle of the Balkans, the expected Djokovic-Coric singles rubber should be fun to watch (though it may not even take place as it’s currently scheduled for Sunday), but Serbia overall has to be favored to whitewash their opponents 3-0 (and possibly 5-0) with Troicki and their doubles team both formidable.
This tie is perhaps the biggest toss-up of the World Group opening round ties, on clay in Buenos Aires, streaky dirtballers will be battling it out, and I expect a lot of 4 and 5 set matches. Argentina has a motley crue of mid tier clay courters with Leonardo Mayer, Federico Delbonis, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Carlos Berlocq, with their team having spent quite some time in Buenos Aires on clay, since this DC tie came right on the heels of the ATP 250 clay court event in Buenos Aires (where Berlocq made the semifinals). Brazil has the veteran Thomaz Bellucci, along with Joao Souza for singles and Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares for doubles. All of these players are notably streaky, and this will be a very passionate South American rivalry, with the dedicated fans of both nations assured to be rowdy, channeling the spirit of their battles in football (soccer). Even though Mayer isn’t in great form at the moment, the Argentinian team has more options in regards to Sunday rubbers, and overall slightly better form with Berlocq and Delbonis playing well, along with the home court advantage. I feel that will get through, either 3-1 or 3-2, with Brazil favored to win the doubles (Melo and Soares are a high quality pairing), and the pressure really falling on Bellucci to perform or Souza to pull an upset. I wouldn’t be surprised with a Brazil win but I can’t pick them this weekend.
This tie would would be intriguing and star studded if the defending Davis Cup champion Swiss had Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka again donning the national colors of red and white and representing their nation, but instead they will not be in Liege, Belgium this weekend on indoor hard, and journeymen have taken their place as coach Severin Luthi will be doing all he can to inspire his team of Adrian Bossel, Michael Lammer and Henri Laaksonen to pull off a miracle and prevent the Swiss from facing relegation in their next tie. Belgium counters with a strong core of David Goffin and Steve Darcis, one a top 30 player, the other a reliable veteran, and the secondary additions of Ruben Bemelmans, a skilled challenger level player, and Niels Desein. Goffin has an injury and isn’t expected to play, but simply put, even the lowest ranked Belgian player, Desein, is ranked more than 100 spots higher in the ranking than the highest ranked Swiss player, and without form, ability, or experience on the Swiss team, Belgian could well win a blowout victory at home, and I don’t see how they lose this tie. Late breaking news made headlines in this tie, as one of the Swiss players, challenger journeyman Yann Marti, was kicked off of the team a day before the tie by coach Luthi. According to media reports, Marti was outraged that he was not selected to play in one of the opening singles rubbers. It’s shocking to see a player of Marti’s caliber and status (292 in the world), act so put out and entitled about representing his nation in Davis Cup. His decision to abandon his teammates leaves the Swiss team with just 3 players for this tie.
Not to be forgotten this week, Italy will have to travel to Astana, Kazakhstan to battle on indoor hard. They have a much stronger team, as the in-form Andreas Seppi and Simone Bolleli are complimented by the experienced Fabio Fognini and Paolo Lorenzi. Kazakhstan has just two top 100 players, Mikhail Kukushkin and Andrey Golubev, who are expected to carry the load for them, with Aleksandr Nedovyesov and Dmitry Popko as secondary choices. Fognini, and especially Lorenzi, are far from top tier players on indoor hard, but Seppi and Bolelli can both hold their own, and with their great form this season, and a team that has good chemistry and balance, they should win this tie given neither Kukushkin nor Golubev have been in great form as of late. Seppi and Bolelli are playing the singles rubbers so Italy 3-0 or 3-1 is the pick.
Some of the other top players in the world of men’s tennis will be representing their nations outside of the world group in Davis Cup action this weekend. In the Americas region group 1, Pablo Cuevas, who has been in great form on the clay court Golden swing, and his brother Martin Cuevas, a challenger level player, will face off with Santiago Giraldo, Alejandro Gonzalez and Colombia. Though Uruguay has home court advantage, Colombia has a stronger all around team and should advance in their bid to reach the World Group.
In Europe-Africa Group 1, Jerzy Janowicz leads Poland against Ricardas Berankis and Lithuania, The Polish team at home is much stronger all around and should advance. A veteran Austria team led by the Melzer brothers, Jurgen and Gerald, along with Andreas Haider-Maurer and new coach Stefan Koubek, are strong favorites against Sweden. The young gun Elias Ymer leads them, and he will have to perform some heroics if Sweden is to have a chance to get any wins outside of the doubles rubber. Martin Klizan, Lukas Lacko and Slovakia should win at home against Blaz Kavcic and Slovenia. Dudi Sela will need to perform at his best if Israel is to upset Romania on the road, with Romania having Marius Copil for singles and a strong doubles pairing with the top team of Florin Mergea and Horia Tecau.
Diving into group 2, Joao Sousa should assist Portugal in dispatching Morocco, Marsel Ilhan and Turkey are slight favorites at home on indoor hard against a South African team that does not have Kevin Anderson, and a young Chile team should be fun to watch on clay against Peru, as the home fans will get to see Nicolas Jarry, Gonzalo Lama, and most of all Christian Garin of the 1996 generation in action.
Tennis Atlantic 