Stan Wawrinka Dubai

2017 ATP Dubai Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

The ATP World Tour returns to the Middle East for ritzy 500 level action in Dubai, where a host of elite ATP players are vying for the title. Here is your preview with predictions of the Dubai tennis championships.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E.
February 27-March 4, 2017
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,429,150

Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Stan Wawrinka (3)
3: Roger Federer (9)
4: Gael Monfils (12)

A solid field features in Dubai, including three top-10 ranked Grand Slam champions.

First round matches to watch:

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (8)Gilles Muller

Kohli has yet to find rthymn this season while Muller hasn’t had great draws since winning Sydney. Despite the h2h in favor of the German, Muller should be able to serve well enough to gain a narrow victory in this one.

(3)Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire

Federer has never lost to Paire, and of course he won the Australian Open. Paire meanwhile has dropped three straight matches after posting an ATP semi a couple of weeks ago. Still this is a great style matchup between one handed backhands, Paire likely doesn’t believe he can win this, but this is a form check match for Federer.

Daniel Evans vs. Dustin Brown

Brown hasn’t played well since injuring his back, but he’s still a dangerous serve and volleyer if the surface plays quick. Evans is in the midst of a tremendous 2017, and will look to continue to the momentum in this tournament stop. His one handed backhanded should be good enough to gain a victory, but Brown is a tricky opponent.

Top Half:

Andy Murray will start his journey in Dubai against Malek Jaziri, who always gets local crowd support. He should win that match, and then defeat either Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or more likely Viktor Troicki to reach the quarterfinals. Waiting for him in the quarters should be Muller/Kohlschreiber, but Daniil Medvedev is an intriguing dark horse. The Russian has two quarterfinals and an ATP final this season. He’s posted rapid improvements at a young age, and I have him outgunning Muller before falling to Murray in the quarters.

Seven-time Dubai champion Roger Federer will face a qualifier or Mikhail Youzhny after taking on Paire. Federer should beat the veteran Youzhny, and then face the finalist in Marseille Lucas Pouille. Pouille found form in France and should put away a struggling Adam Pavlasek, then J.L. Struff or a qualifier to reach the quarterfinals. A fresher Federer has the edge on Pouille.

Bottom Half:

Defending champion Stan Wawrinka starts his title defense against Damir Dzumhur, with Jiri Vesely or Marcel Granollers to follow. None of the players in this section are in great form, Wawrinka should be fresh and focused though. In the quarterfinals Tomas Berdych, 8-3 in 2017, looms. Berdych faces a qualifier first, with Robin Haase or a qualifier to follow in a weak section. Wawrinka leads the h2h with Berdych 11-5 and has dominated the matchup recently, he should reach the semifinals.

Two talented shotmakers, Roberto Bautista Agut and Gael Monfils, should face off in the quarterfinals. Monfils faces wild card Mohamed Safwat, with Evans/Brown to follow, while RBA will face a struggling Karen Khachanov, with Florian Mayer or Fernando Verdasco to follow. Only RBA has form in this section and should reach the quarters. Monfils has a 3-0 h2h against RBA and is the favorite to reach the semifinals.

Dark Horse: Daniel Evans

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The Monfils/RBA section is the weakest part of the draw, creating an opening for Evans to perhaps reach the quarterfinals or better if he plays his best tennis. The Brit is a solid part of the ATP tour at this point, but with his game still improving, he could become more than that.

Predictions

Semis
Federer d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Monfils

Federer has won five straight against Murray, while Wawrinka has a 3-2 h2h edge over Monfils. Given his form in Melbourne, Federer is the favorite against the world #1.

Final
Federer d. Wawrinka

Federer has a 19-3 h2h win over Wawrinka and a h2h this year, we could see an all-Swiss final, and Roger will be the favorite.

Thiem, Cuevas Continue Early Season Success, Wawrinka Takes Dubai
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic

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ATP Acapulco

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Dominic Thiem continued his MEGA season with his second ATP title this month in Acapulco. The 500 level tournament is his biggest career result thus far and the 22 year old Austrian is making a push for the top 10. Thiem scored a comeback win in the final 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 over Bernard Tomic after Tomic was up 4-1 and 5-2 in the first set. Tomic had a good tournament and showed his own flashes of greatness but the 23 year old Aussie could maintain a consistent high level compared to Thiem’s newly aggressive tennis this year.

Thiem is 18-4 on the season with room to grow as he has two titles, and two semifinals already this year. He beat Damir Dzumhur, Grigor Dimitrov, and Sam Querrey in resounding fashion without dropping a set, and also came back from a set down against Dmitry Tursunov in his second match. The former top 15 player Dimitrov was plainly outclassed by Thiem who is two years his junior.

Tomic moved to 12-6 on the season and posted his best result after a post Australian slump. He got revenge against Rajeev Ram for a loss earlier this month, and then beat Adrian Mannarino, Illya Marchenko and Alexandr Dolgopolov to reach the final. Dolgo was on fire in the opening set, and had his chances in sets 2 and 3, but somehow Tomic dealt with his shotmaking to advance. Dolgopolov upset David Ferrer early in the tournament, and the other favorite Kei Nishikori lost to Querrey.

Veteran Max Mirnyi teamed up with Treat Huey to defeat Alexander Peya and Philipp Petzschner in the doubles final. Mirnyi needs a couple more wins to make it 700 in his doubles career.

ATP Dubai

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The 500 level stop in Dubai saw world #4 Stan Wawrinka capture his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had a surprisingly easy path to the title after world #1 Novak Djokovic withdrew with an eye infection. Against unseeded veteran Marcos Baghdatis, he dazzled with his backhand in a great display of offense against offense from the baseline for a 6-4 7-6(13) victory.

Wawrinka had to fight back from a set and a break down, and work through a tough third set to beat serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky for the second week in a row, he was looking shaky early on, but wins over Franko Skugor and Philipp Kohlschreiber gave him momentum. Nick Kyrgios met him in the semifinals, as he had another good week on tour, but a back injury forced him to retire in set 2.

The Cypriot Baghdatis reached his first tour final since Atlanta last year, and he did so with surprising wins over Viktor Troicki, Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Feliciano Lopez, dropping just the first set to Lopez en route. Troicki and RBA had been in good form as of late, but both looked exhausted in sloppy second sets against the 30 year old.

Italians Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi won 14-12 in a third set super tiebreak against the Spanish Lopez brothers Feliciano and Marc to capture the doubles title. Lopez still had a great week overall with a semifinal in singles and a final in doubles after a slow start to 2016.

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ATP Sao Paulo

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Pablo Cuevas defended his Sao Paulo title and won his second tournament in a row to move to 12-3 on the season, and cement his status as one of the best clay courters on tour. Cuevas is 10-1 on clay this year and dominated the Golden Swing with a quarterfinal in Buenos Aires, and titles in Rio and Sao Paulo.

His Sao Paulo triumph came with little signs of fatigue in a 7-6(4) 6-3 victory over Pablo Carreno Busta. He also beat Facundo Bagnis, the young upstart Thiago Monteiro, and Dusan Lajovic this week, dropping just a set to a promising Monteiro in some rather quick matches. Monteiro is 3-2 on tour this year after making his ATP main draw debut in Rio.

Carreno Busta was bageled in his opening set of the tournament against Albert Ramos but survived a third set tiebreak, and then went on to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver in three sets, Roberto Carballes Baena, and Inigo Cervantes, in quarter and semifinal blowouts. It was the first ever ATP final for Carreno Busta, but victory was not to be had as Cuevas proved too strong. Pablo should be a threat on European clay in the spring as well.

Julio Peralta and Horacio Zeballos won the doubles title over Carreno Busta/David Marrero.

Steen Kirby (Marseille)