ICYMI: Djokovic Wins World Tour Finals, Swiss Take Davis Cup Final Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
In case you missed it, here is a quick roundup of the last couple of non-exhibition events at the top level of Men’s professional tennis this year.
World Tour Finals
Novak Djokovic won his third consecutive and fourth overall year-end championships title in London at the O2 Arena, as a hobbled Roger Federer withdrew and gave the word number one a walkover victory. Besides Djokovic, only Ivan Lendl and Ilie Nastase have ever won three consecutive year-end championship tournaments.
Djokovic was the strongest player all week, not surrendering a set in round robin play against Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka, and Tomas Berdych, as none of his opponents really put in much effort. In the semis, Kei Nishikori snatched a set, but Djokovic won the other two sets surrendering just one game combined.
Clearly, a deserving champion.
Federer also played well, as the World Number 2 was able to topple Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori, two top players of the younger generation, without dropping a set, and then demolished Andy Murray in front of a home crowd for the UK number one. The match of the tournament was the semifinal between Federer and compatriot Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka had four match point chances and was up a set early, but Federer clawed his way back and eventually defeated a cramping Wawrinka in a third set tiebreak. In process of winning the match, Federer injured his back and had to pull out for the final.
The Bryans beat Ivan Dodig and Marcel Melo to win yet another World Tour Finals, as they continue to dominate the game even more than Djokovic.
Davis Cup Final
The top five Swiss duo of Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka led their nation to its first ever Davis Cup title. The golden era of Swiss tennis was confirmed as the duo defeated a talented French team 3-1 for the title.
Wawrinka started proceedings by defeating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 4 sets. Tsonga played one quality set but was pedestrian in the three others that were played. Gael Monfils fought back and beat Federer in straights for the French, leaving the tie at an even 1-1 after Friday singles.
Fed and Stan beat Richard Gasquet and Julian Benneteau in straight sets to take the doubles rubber, and Federer would clinch the tie on Sunday, easing past Gasquet in 3 sets. Though the tie was played in France, there were nearly as many Swiss fans in attendance, and they basked in the glory of their first ever Davis Cup triumph.
This is yet another achievement in the illustrious career of Roger Federer, one of the greatest players of all time.
2014 @RolandGarros French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview, Picks Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The round of 16 has (nearly) been set in Paris with a few new faces and many familiar names still in the running. Here is both a recap of the stirring action of the first week and a preview of what is ahead at Roland Garros 2014.
Rafael Nadal vs. Dusan Lajovic
To the surprise of hardly anyone, Rafael Nadal has again reached the second week of the French without dropping a set, as he routined Robby Ginepri, the young Dominic Thiem, and Leo Mayer, dropping fewer than 20 games in 3 matches. However, he was complaining about his back after the Mayer round 3 match and has it taped, which he said is affecting his serve. Given his opponent, Lajovic, doesn’t appear to be a formidable challenge he should be ok in this match but it could pose problems in the final potential three matches.
Lajovic has reached the second week of a slam for the first time in his career and he did so by beating Federico Delbonis, Jurgen Zopp and Jack Sock without dropping a set. This section was blown open because of Tommy Haas dealing with injuries that caused him to retire in the first round, and though Lajovic is having a career week, unless Nadal is truly hampered, I don’t see this being much more than Rafa in straights.
Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer
Big Kev rolled past two weak French opponents, Stephane Robert and Axel Michon, before getting a retirement against Ivo Karlovic, who upset Grigor Dimitrov in straights earlier in the week to reach the last of 16.
David Ferrer, meanwhile, crushed Igor Sijsling and a pair of Italians, Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi. Ferrer beat Anderson here last year in straights, and I expect a repeat of that. The veteran Spaniard should again reach the quarterfinals.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Gael Monfils
GGL shocked the 3 seed Stan Wawrinka in 4 sets in the first round, as the Swiss meekly bowed out to the prowess of the all court Spanish veteran, who is having a great year at 30 years old.
He followed up the Wawrinka upset by beating Adrian Mannarino in 4 sets and avoiding a near choke from 2 sets to love up against Donald Young, breaking to win in 5, 6-4 in the fifth. Young did well to reach the third round and played well this week.
GGL had to claw for the victory.
Monfils, meanwhile, may still be dealing with an ankle injury but he beat Victor Hanescu in 4 and JL Struff in straights this week, then won a great circus match against Fabio Fognini in 5 sets. The two players yet again gave the French crowd a show, but it was Monfils who was more focused and with fewer errors.
Monfils is 2-0 on clay against GGL but they haven’t met since 2010. This one is a very hard pick, but I think GGL runs out of magic here and Monfils wins in 4 or 5 sets.
Richard Gasquet/Fernando Verdasco vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber/Andy Murray
These matches have yet to be completed, as they were played late and stopped because of darkness. Verdasco is 2 sets up against Gasquet at the time of writing, while Kohli and Murray are deadlocked at 7-7 in the fifth set.
It’s hard to make a prediction without seeing how these finish, but if I had to pick I’d go with Verdasco vs. Murray being the most likely final 16 matchup. I like Murray to reach the quarterfinals regardless. Gasquet has been fighting through back problems but didn’t drop a set against Bernard Tomic and Carlos Berlocq, but he will need to come back from 2 sets down against Verdasco. Verdasco beat Michael Llodra, then outlasted Pablo Cuevas in 5, coming back from 2 sets down (and avoiding a choke as his opponent ran out of gas after Verdasco had to serve to stay in the match).
Kohli beat Pere Riba and Denis Istomin in straights, then clawed back after dropping two straight sets to win the fourth and get it to 7 all against Murray in the fifth set. Murray beat Andrey Golubev in 4 and Marinko Matosevic in straights prior.
Again, hard to pick this section, but Murray or Verdasco are most likely to get through to the quarterfinals with Gasquet not near 100% and Kohli not reliable enough.
Tomas Berdych vs. John Isner
Tomas Berdych has looked good this week, with wins over Peter Polansky in straights and Aleksandr Nedovyesov in 4 sets, then a 4 set win over Roberto Bautista Agut that was easier than I thought it would be going in.
Isner beat Pierre Hugues Herbert, Mikhail Kukushkin and Tommy Robredo, the latter two in 4 sets. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition, given Robredo struggles against big servers on clay and hasn’t been the most in-form recently, but still it’s his best showing at the French ever.
Anything more is just gravy at this point. Berdych beat him at the French in straights in 2010 and given this is clay, Berd should win in 3 or 4 if he can match the serving and power of Isner and be better with his movement.
Ernests Gulbis vs Roger Federer
I expect a quality, entertaining match between these two. Both their prior clay meetings went 3 sets (ATP matches) and the h2h is 1-1, with both matches coming in 2010.
Gulbis reached the last 16 beating Lukasz Kubot in 4, Facundo Bagnis in straights and Radek Stepanek in the same manner. Fed beat Lukas Lacko and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in straights before needing 4 sets to defeat Dmitry Tursunov.
Gulbis is in some fantastic form right now and is on a winning streak. However, this is Federer, and unless Gulbis plays with razor sharp focus, it’s hard to see him winning.
Fed in 5 is my pick simply because of consistency.
Milos Raonic vs. Marcel Granollers
Milos Raonic beat young guns Nick Kyrgios and Jiri Vesely in straights, then was put to the test against a surprisingly rejuvenated Gilles Simon, finally winning that one 7-5 in the fifth as his serve pulled him through.
Granollers got a retirement against Ivan Dodig, then notched wins over Alex Dolgopolov in 5 and Martin Klizan in 4. He came back from 2 sets down against Dolgo and he’s proven to be a fiery competitor this week, but Raonic is in form and he’s the better player, even on his weaker surface of clay.
They have never met before but I’m going with Raonic. His expected round of 16 opponent, Kei Nishkori, bowed out weakly to Klizan in round 1.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Novak Djokovic
Tsonga hasn’t beaten Djokovic since 2010 and he’s lucky to reach the last 16, as he got gifted with a good draw. The Frenchman beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Jurgen Melzer and Jerzy Janowicz all without dropping a set, as they all played poorly.
Djokovic beat Joao Sousa and Jeremy Chardy very casually before having a bit of a headache against Marin Cilic, dropping the third set and finally closing that one out in 4 sets. Djokovic in 3 or 4 is the pick.
Predictions
Quarters:
Nadal d. Ferrer
Monfils d. Verdasco/Murray/Kohlschreiber/Gasquet
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic d. Raonic
Nadal could lose if his back is bad or something happens, but realistically have to go with Rafa.
I like Monfils simply because of the home crowd and he’s playing well even with the ankle being iffy. None of the possible opponents look unbeatable. I trust Fed over Berdych in best of 5 format, and Djokovic should outclass Raonic.
Semis:
Nadal d. Monfils
Djokovic d. Federer
Still like Djokovic over Fed and even though his health his iffy, Rafa has already beaten an (in form) Monfils twice this year and he’s 4-0 against him on clay. That makes it unrealistic for me to pick Le Monf any further.
Final:
Djokovic d. Nadal
I picked it at the start of the week, and with Nadal complaining about the back, even if Djoker isn’t perfect I think he now has a clear edge to win the title this week as long as he keeps to form.
As we begin the 2014 season, I will not regale you with a year-end recap of the idiosyncracies of East Coast tournaments as I did in 2012. Instead, I will point out the people and blogs who have moved me and who I want to thank over the last year as a mediocre tennis media man.
#1: Colette Lewis (ZooTennis.com): For pro tennis fanatics who want to know a little more about those obscure qualifiers in a 250 event, Colette’s work will inevitably be at the top of the search engine for that player. On junior and college players, she has literally already written the book on them. Amazing, invaluable content that cannot be topped or found elsewhere. Thank you!
#2 ChallengerTennis.com: This is a site I only started following in 2013. James keeps the focus on his blog “to both chronicle and celebrate the unsung heroes of the pro tennis world: the Challenger and Futures players who grind it out each day”. He does it well. It’s another place to get sometimes rare information and, like Zoo Tennis, also promotes and covers the unheralded and underheralded warriors of the game. Thanks, JJ!
#3: Underpaid Tennis Bloggers/Writers: Some of the biggest writers in the tennis blogosphere working for major outlets are paid a sad pittance of the value of their work. Some have pursued ‘dream’ gigs and have been forced to reside with their parents, sell their own residences, and in some cases, pay for their own travel to get a $2,500-$3,000 monthly stipend from penny-pinching, deep-pocket publishers. Big name journalists deserve a living wage, and their publications who underpay them should be ashamed of themselves. Thank you, unnamed tennis bloggers of prime-time pedigree, for creating some amazing content in 2013. Here’s hoping that you get a raise in 2014. Or at least a fat per diem while you’re on the road, so you can live like kings when you’re livin’ the dream.
#4: Steen “The Teen” Kirby: When Steen Kirby asked to submit articles to this blog two years ago, I had no idea what I was getting into. The guy is a virtual Rain Man of ATP Tennis. He can pretty much whip off the ATP top 200 in exact order on any given week. I’ve only seen this in one other human being and he writes for the New York Times. Several hundred posts later, my respect for Steen’s deep knowledge of the game has grown. Steen is perhaps even more passionate about another love of mine–politics–and he’s off to college in 2014. You know what that means. Radical Student Politics, the Occupations of the Lawn, the Sacking of the Student Union. OK, maybe not. We may lose Steen to the complexities of college life in 2014, but we may not. From what I’ve heard, we lose him to a bigger media outlet. Either way, he’s been a blessing to Tennis East Coast. And I think you’ll be hearing a lot more from him in the future.
#5: Tournament Media Directors: I cannot even bring up this category without one name immediately coming to mind: Anne McLaughlin. The Tennis Hall of fame and ATP Newport press chief is a body of frenetic energy. She delivered in 2013 just like she did in 2012. There is no better thing than a full-time, year-round employee of an event/venue like McLaughlin to have the answer for every single question a blogger may have, no matter how redonculous the blogger’s question may be.
New faces who impressed me in 2013 were Arielle Alpino at Family Circle Cup, Sheena Pegarido at CitiOpen and Pat Mitsch of the USTA.
And while I’m on the press management topic, let me throw in a full-fledged tournament director for his devotion to the cause of micro-blogging. It was the first day of the main draw at Charlottesville and I was the only media member on site. Without my even asking, Ron Manila personally designed and printed me up a sole media credential so the good officials down on court would know what the heck I was doing there.
On the player’s side, Greg Sharko (Newport et al.) is an ATP Twitter superstar and a media maven, now and forever.
Ditto that for the Citi Open DC Duo of Fabrizio Sestini (ATP) and Yanyan Xu (WTA).
And then there’s Vonnie Voss. Voss is the Grande Dame of WTA media operations and was the first gate-keeper I encountered on my first assignment 2 1/2 years ago at the inaugural CitiOpen in College Park, Maryland. I’ve gone out of my way to mind my P’s and Q’s around her since that first rendezvous, so I was pleased when she told me in New Haven that she liked the way I interviewed the players and that she thought they responded well to me because I was a ‘nice guy’. That statement meant a lot to me. I’m not a great interviewer, but I do practice every chance I get. Voss is a class act. Coming from her, it was my validation for all of 2013.
So blame Vonnie, if you must. This blog is energized and we’re going another year!
128 players, all ranked outside the top 100, but still quite talented, will vie for the 16 main draw qualies spots on the men’s side of the final slam of the year. It’s the US Open at the BJK National Tennis Center! Qualifying action runs all this week in Flushing.
Top 16 qualifying seeds (32 seeds total)
1: Federico Delbonis
2: Ivo Karlovic
3: Jesse Huta Galung
4: Martin Alund
5: Alejandro Gonzalez
6: Somdev Devvarman
7: Julian Reister
8: Marc Gicquel
9: Joao Souza
10: Teymuraz Gabashvili
11: Wayne Odesnik
12: Marius Copil
13: Blaz Kavcic
14: Matt Ebden
15: Alex Kuznetsov
16: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
First round matchups to watch:
(2)Ivo Karlovic vs. (wc)Mackenzie McDonald
Dr. Ivo
Dr. Ivo will seek to qualify here and his first match will be against the young American who took Cincy by storm, MacKenzie McDonald. McDonald, of course, qualified there and will be going to UCLA to pursue college tennis. Karlovic should still be a pretty heavy favorite but McDonald knows how to pull upsets.
Greg Jones vs. Nick Kyrgios
Hard serving Aussie Greg Jones will take on his young countryman Nick Kyrgios, who is on the rise and has made some noise, but hasn’t played a tournament match since Junior Wimbledon. Still, with 2 futures titles under his belt this year and other accomplishments including making the 2nd round of Roland Garros, the Aussie has both talent and prowess on hard courts.
(30)Peter Gojowcyzk vs. Tennys Sandgren
Gojowcyzk, who is at a career high ranking of 146 at the age of 24, has made 2 challenger semis and a challenger final so far this year, proving himself to be a consistent performer across surfaces. Sandgren who has been good at times but has not had the best of years. He will be playing in front of American fans on his preferential hardcourts. Gojo should be a favorite but this could go either way.
Peter Polansky vs. Dan Evans
Polansky
Polansky gave Kei Nishikori a battle at the Rogers Cup and is a reasonable baseline hardcourter. Polansky will do battle with Evans, who reached his career high ranking this month (169) and is coming off 2 straight hard court challenger finals. Polansky has more experience, but I have to think Evans the Brit is the favorite here.
First Quarter Preview and Prediction
The top seed Federico Delbonis is sort of a clay courter, meaning the unseeded Mikhail Kukushkin will have a great chance at an upset out of the gate, as Kuku has proven himself to be solid enough on fast courts when healthy. 22-year-old Bosnian Mirza Basic, who beat Jerzy Janowicz in Halle this year, should get past Argentine veteran Eduardo Schwank and be the next opponent.
In round 3 qualies, the serve only Sam Groth/Hiroki Moriya/Maxime Teixeira or Jesse Levine are the options in a sort of unpredictable section.
Qualifies: Kukushkin
The Karlovic/McDonald winner will play Boris Pashanski or Facundo Bagnis and then one of Agustin Velotti/Henri Laaksonen/Guilherme Clezar/Andrey Golubev. Laaksonen has played some ATP level matches this year and may be one to watch.
Qualifies: Karlovic
Jesse Huta Galung is at a career high ranking of 99 (just missing the US Open cutoff) and has won 4 challengers this year, in addition to a challenger final and a challenger semi this year. The Dutchman won 2 of those titles on hard courts and has a versatile game. He plays veteran Florent Serra to open, then Ze Zhang or Austrian veteran Martin Fischer in Round 2.
In Round 3, it should be Huta Galung against fellow accomplished challenger player Andrej Martin, if Martin beats David Guez and Di Wu/Josselin Ouanna. Ouanna has struggled this year.
Qualifies: Huta Galung
Clay courter Martin Alund plays Igor Kunitsyn, who is normally good on hard courts but has had a very quiet year not playing since Wimbledon. The winner gets Phillip Petzschener or American Gage Brymer, who is up and coming and was awarded a wild card. Petzschener has a good chance here but he has not been healthy and has not played since Wimbledon.
In Round 3, the opponent will be Farrukh Dustov/Jared Donaldson/Evgeny Korolev/Ilya Marchenko. This is a wide open section really, but Dustov has had good recent form.
Qualifies: Dustov
Second Quarter Preview and Prediction
Alejandro Gonzalez is nearing the top 100 and is at a career high ranking at the age of 24. He has had a great year on both clay and hard courts at the challenger level with 3 titles, 1 final and 2 challenger semis. He plays Marcel Granollers’ brother Gerard and then Dennis Novikov or Andrea Arnaboldi.
In Round 3, the opponent will be one of Facundo Arguello/Daniel Munoz/Dusan Lojda/Rogerio Dutra Silva. Munoz has experience while Arguello has struggled off of clay.
Qualifies: Gonzalez
Somdev Devvarman will face Fabiano De Paula in his first match, then Robby Ginepri/Giovanni Lapenntti. Ginepri has still been struggling and Devvarman has been inconsistent, but they both should face each other given this is hard courts.
In Round 3, Matthias Bachinger/Steve Diez/James Ward/Jonathan Eysseric are the options. Wardy is a sometimes solid hard courter, while Bachinger prefers clay in what is an open section.
Qualifies: Devvarman
Julian Reister will face his countryman Tim Puetz and then Gerald Melzer or Virginia’s Jarmere Jenkins. Reister has had a good year but he prefers clay, and Jenkins has an underdog chance to get through at least the first 2 rounds (Melzer is also a clay courter).
Mischa Zverev will play Uladzimir Ignatik before Thomas Fabbiano or Antonio Veic for a spot in Round 3 qualies. Reister and Jenkins have chances, but even though Zverev has struggled, I still make him a slight favorite.
Qualifies: Zverev
Veteran Frenchman Marc Gicquel gets Thiago Alves before Matt Barton or Donald Young. Young has struggled, Gicquel is not hot, and Barton has been poor outside of Australia, while Alves is a clay courter.
The winner of a section containing Jimmy Wang/Guido Andreozzi/Karol Beck/Victor Estrella will be the Round 3 opponent. Wang and Young are probably co-favorites here as the rest are clay courters, way out of form or less talented players.
Qualifies: Young
Donald Young
Third Quarter Preview and Prediction
Joao Souza takes on Maxime Authom and then the Jones/Kyrgios winner. Round 3 options are Cedrik-Marcel Stebe/Malek Jaziri/Marton Fuscovics/Olivier Rochus. Rochus has experience of course. Authom, Stebe and Kyrgios have talent, while Jaziri is a veteran. My money is on Kyrgios here assuming he is healthy. He has a lot of talent and has already proven his mental strength.
Qualifies: Kyrgios
Veteran Teymuraz Gabashvili will face fellow vet Frank Dancevic in a pretty evenly matched Round 1 match. The winner gets Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Maximiliano Estevez. Herbert has talent but has not really had a breakthrough this year.
Round 3 options are Yuichi Sugita/Laurent Rochette/Damir Dzumhur/Tatsuma Ito. Dzumhur has had a decent year on the challenger circuit but I think the section comes down to Gabashvili or Dancevic. Dancevic has been better over the summer hardcourts, so edge to him.
Qualifies: Dancevic
Wayne Odesnik will face Swiss veteran Marco Chiudinelli, with the winner getting Rik De Voest or young American Bjorn Fratangelo. In Round 3, the young American Mitchell Krueger, the young Frenchman Lucas Pouille or the Gojowcyzk/Sandgren winner are the options. Gojowcyzk or Chiudinelli should be the favorites here.
Qualifies: Chiudinelli
Marius Copil, who has had a good year, will play clay court specialist Jan Hernych before Jeff Dadamo/Guillermo Olaso, while one of Miroslav Mecir/Riccardo Bellotti/Austin Krajicek/Go Soeda await. Copil won a challenger on hard courts this year and has 2 challenger finals to his name. At a career high ranking inside the top 130, I say he is the favorite here, though Hernych has an outside chance.
Qualifies: Copil
Fourth Quarter Preview and Prediction
Blaz Kavcic, who has been over in Europe on clay, faces Marsel Ilhan in Round 1 and then Radu Albot or Adrian Menendez in Round 2. Evans/Polansky, Flavio Cipolla or Bobby Reynolds, who just lost in Winston-Salem are 3rd round options. Kavcic, Evans and Polansky could all qualify, but given their recent form I’ll go with Evans.
Qualifies: Evans
Matt Ebden faces Oleksandr Nedovyesov before meeting the winner of Amir Weintraub/Noah Rubin. Weintraub is a veteran, while Rubin is a wild card rising American in what could be a good contest.
Round 3 options are Matteo Viola/Maximo Gonzalez/Andreas Beck/Matt Reid in an open section. Viola has had a good year but prefers clay. Weintraub and Ebden should be co-favorites and either could qualify.
Qualifies: Ebden
Alex Kuznetsov, a favorite journeyman American, will play Ivan Sergeyev and Renzo Olivo or Jan Mertl. In Round 3, it should be Kuznetsov vs. Ruben Bemelmans, even though Bemelmans has had a bad year. The other options in the section are Denys Molchanov, Boy Westerhof and veteran Stephane Robert.
Qualifies: Kuznetsov
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman plays Jordi Samper-Montana with the winner getting Dzmitry Zhyrmont or Aldin Setkic in a very weak section. Round 3 will be against Dusan Lajovic/Albano Olivetti/Andre Ghem or Niels Desein.
The 21-year-old Argentine Schwarztman is right around his career high ranking inside the top 130 and plays almost all his tennis on clay, but he is very talented and I think he gets out of this section even with the surface disadvantage.
2013 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
(June 1, 2013)– Roland Garros has dodged around rain showers and managed to make it through to the final 16 on the men’s side as very upsets have made almost everything go as expected rankings-wise in Paris.
Now to break down the round of 16.
Novak Djokovic vs. Phillip Kohlschreiber
Djokovic hasn’t had too rough of a time in advancing through his first three matches. He didn’t drop a set against David Goffin, Guido Pella and Grigor Dimitrov. Goffin gave him the toughest match of the three, forcing 3 tight sets including a tiebreak. Pella and Dimitrov just proved overmatched, while Kohlschreiber has once again worked his way to the R16 under the radar. He beat hard-hitting Czech youngster Jiri Vesely in 4 sets, getting a walkover against Yen-Hsun Lu and then dispatching veteran Victor Hanescu. Kohlschreiber is a good player, and as I mentioned in the Week 1 preview, has beaten Novak at RG before, but I honestly don’t see that happening this year.
Tommy Haas vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Tommy Haas finally has a good slam run to go with his excellent late career ATP results. He did so by beating Guillaume Rufin, Jack Sock, who upset Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in R1, and another American, John Isner 10-8. That was another tough luck 5-setter for big John, who previously beat Ryan Harrison in 5 sets. Youzhny is a bit more of a surprise, though he was formerly a solid name on tour. He has lost luster in recent years and really wasn’t on many radars, yet still he grinded away against Pablo Andujar, Federico Del Bonis and an exhausted Janko Tipsarevic, who had beaten Fernando Verdasco in 5 sets in round 2 to reach the round of 16. Youzhny actually holds the head-to-head edge 4-3 in this one, including a win just this year on clay in Rome. Haas may be tired, but he has proven the doubters wrong before, and I say he grabs the win here as well.
Kei Nishikori
Rafael Nadal vs. Kei Nishikori
Nadal has spent the most time on court (8 hours+) of any of the top 3 seeds and he has already dropped 2 sets, one to Daniel Brands in round 1 and the other to Martin Klizan in round 2. He did improve over Fabio Fognini, dispatching him in straights. The thing is, at least in the case of the Brands match, his opponent played very well and would have beaten plenty of other capable players, but not Nadal, and not on clay, as Nadal has improved his record to an astounding 55-1 in Paris. Now he will run into the Hope of Japan, Nishikori, who beat Jesse Levine and Grega Zemlja, then followed that up with a win over the Frenchman Benoit Paire. This is their first meeting on clay, but Nishikori has never beaten Nadal in 4 tries, and once again you just can’t go against Rafa at RG.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Richard Gasquet
Wawrinka was probably the biggest question mark going into the tournament. He has had a wonderful year in general, and a fine clay court season, but his health was in question. He has assuaged away those fears as he survived a late comeback push from Thiemo De Bakker to win in 4 sets and then beat Horacio Zeballos and Jerzy Janowicz (who has to be more than just a bit disappointed). Gasquet has avoided tons of fanfare and beat ‘antics enjoyer’ Sergiy Stakhovsky, Michal Przysienzy and Nikolay Davydenko all without dropping a set. These 2 have only met once back in 2006, so I wouldn’t read anything into that as they are almost fresh slates right now. I expect 5 sets and a knock-down-drag-out, but I’ll give a razor thin edge to Gasquet here.
Tommy Robredo vs. Nicolas Almagro
Another left for dead veteran who has found renewed success: Robredo, who used to be one of the top Spanish players, beat Jurgen Zopp, then won grueling 5 set matches with Igor Sijsling and everyone’s favorite showman Gael Monfils. Monfils, of course, once again produced tremendous excitement in wins over Tomas Berdych and Ernests Gulbis, with Monfils-Berdych being worthy of a semifinal and one of the best round 1 slam matches in recent memory. Nico Almagro beat Andreas Haider-Maurer in 4 sets, Edouard Roger-Vasselin in straights and Andreas Seppi, also in straights. Almagro has to be seen as the fresher player. Furthermore, Almagro has beaten Robredo in all 5 of their meetings, including this year in Acapulco, and as much as I appreciate what Robredo has done to get this far, I have to go with Almagro.
Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer
Big South African Anderson beat Ilya Marchenko and Evgeny Donskoy, then toppled Milos Raonic in straights while Ferrer beat Marinko Matosevic, Albert Montanes, and surprise 3rd rounder Feliciano Lopez. The pair have never met on clay but have split a pair of hardcourt meetings, with Anderson winning their match at Indian Wells this year. Anderson is in good form, but so is Ferrer, and he hasn’t shown me any reason why I should go against picking him again.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Viktor Troicki
Tsonga is one of the three Frenchman left and the one most likely to advance. He beat Aljaz Bedene, then routined a zapped Jarkko Nieminen before dispatching fellow Tri-colore Jeremy Chardy to improve his record in Paris. As a side, the first round match between Nieminen and Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu was also one of the better round 1 slam matches in recent memory. It was 5 sets of pure tennis. Perhaps the most surprising name left in the draw, Troicki has had RG success before, but he is ridiculously unpredictable and he put his game together this week to beat James Blake, Dani Gimeno-Traver in 5 sets and Marin Cilic. The head to head is actually tied at 3 all in this one, but Tsonga has won both clay meetings and since he hasn’t dropped a set, I’ll pick him to keep up that pace.
Gilles Simon vs. Roger Federer
Simon avoid a memorable choke against Lleyton Hewitt in the first round.Hhe promptly went down 2 sets against the veteran Aussie and was playing horrendous tennis before kicking it into gear and going up 5-1 in the 5th set after Hewitt looked like he was down for the count. From there, it began to unravel as he dropped game after game, and eventually had to break Hewitt again and serve out the match 7-5 in the 5th. He beat Paolo Cuavas in 4 sets after that and then Sam Querrey in another long 5 setter. Federer is on an opposite path, and is taking care of business like a machine right now rolling over Pablo Carreno-Busta, Somdev Devvarman and Julian Benneteau to reach the 4th round. Fed managed all that without dropping a set and in fact, only dropping 22 games in 3 matches. The head to head is only 3-2, but Federer crushed Simon in Rome recently, and he should do so again.
Predictions:
QFs
Djokovic d. Haas
Nadal d. Gasquet
Ferrer d. Almagro
Federer d. Tsonga
Haas blistered Djokovic in Miami in one of the biggest upsets of the year, but like Dimitrov, I don’t think he can pull it off again, especially on clay. Nadal may struggle a little bit, but a 10-0 h2h vs. Gasquet speaks for itself. Likewise Ferrer has just dominated Almagro, beating him 13 times to none. Federer is also looking like a machine right now and should win. All these matches could in fact be straight sets.
SFs
Nadal d. Djokovic
Federer d. Ferrer
Sticking with the original picks and as confident as I was to start with both of them: Nadal being a machine at RG in what some will call the championship match, and Federer having a clear edge over Ferrer.
Final
Nadal d. Federer
Still going with Nadal to win, but if Federer plays like he is now, this could be much closer than most people thought Federer almost has to be the 2nd favorite for the title now.
