The Winston-Salem Open finished up on Saturday with young Russian Daniil Medvedev claiming victory 6-4 6-4 over Steve Johnson, his second ATP title of 2018. Medvedev will enter the US Open in tremendous form having not dropped a set in six matches in Winston-Salem. Medvedev was challenged by Johnson but rose to the occasion, earning the win after previously defeated Mirza Basic, Alex De Minaur, Guido Andreozzi, Ryan Harrison and Taro Daniel to reach the final.
Johnson reached his third final of 2018 and also had strong week. He eased past Tommy Paul, Jaume Munar, Kyle Edmund, and Pablo Carreno Busta without dropping a set suggesting that the American could also be a potential dark horse at the US Open.
Rojer and Tecau defeated Cerretani and Paes in straight sets to win the doubles title.
American Contingent Including Sam Querrey Highlight ATP Winston-Salem 250 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Winston-Salem 250 is the final tune up before the US Open for a varied contingent of mid-level to fringe ATP players. Here is your look at all the action under the North Carolina sun.
Top Half:
Marton Fucsovics should be a strong favorite against Guido Andreozzi and Radu Albot in rounds 1 and 2. Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex De Minaur looks like an exciting matchup. The DC finalist De Minaur should be a slight favorite against the young Russian who already defeated Mirza Basic in round 1. De Minaur should emerge from the section as a quarterfinalist.
Ryan Harrison should run past wild card Borna Gojo, and then struggling veteran Gilles Simon. Harrison is good enough on American hard courts he could have a great run here. Taylor Fritz should emerge to face Harrison in round 3, Fritz needs to get past Malek Jaziri and Filip Krajinovic, both of whom are struggling. Harrison should reach the quarters.
Jan-Lennard Struff is in good form after beating Benoit Paire round 1, he should beat Marco Cecchinato to reach round 3 while Andreas Seppi will be favored in the section after beating Joao Sousa, with Nicolas Jarry on deck.
Sam Querrey should be the 4th quarterfinalist. neither Taro Daniel/John Millman in round 2 are in great form, and the rest of the section is weak. Damir Dzumhur/Tennys Sandgren will face off in round 2 presuming Sandgren defeats a slumping Ricardas Berankis. The winner in that matchup should fall to Querrey in round 3.
Pablo Carreno Busta is a potential champion, PCB should roll past Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Franko Skugor, with Peter Gojowczyk likely in round 3. Both Lukas Lacko and Horacio Zeballos are struggling. PCB will reach the quarters and should go further.
This is perhaps Hyeon Chung‘s moment to shine post-injury, Chung hasn’t had a significant result since his return to tour but a draw featuring Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in round 2 (GGL defeated Marcos Baghdatis), and most likely Nikoloz Basilashvili or Matteo Berrettini in round 3 looks to be easy enough to reach the quarters. I’ll back Berrettini past Julien Benneteau and Basilashvili, with Chung reaching the quarters.
Leonardo Mayer‘s good form suggests he’s well positioned to upset Kyle Edmund and then defeat Albert Ramos or Roberto Carballes Baena after RCB defeated Guido Pella in round 1. Mayer looks like a dark horse this week and should reach the quarters.
I have qualifier Tommy Paul defeating Laslo Djere, while Steve Johnson is looking to find form and should reach round 3. Andrey Rublev has struggled since playing well in Washington, Rublev should defeat Jaume Munar/Brayden Schnur in round 2, and I’ll back Johnson past Rublev on home soil to reach the quarters.
American #1 John Isner Joins Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and More at 2018 Citi Open Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Citi Open has a loaded and diverse field this year. Here is your preview of all the action on hard courts at the ATP 500 level.
Top Half:
Last year’s champion Alexander Zverev will start his title defense against Evgeny Donskoy or Malek Jaziri. From there he should face his big brother Mischa in round 3, Mischa simply has to beat Tim Smyczek or Ricardas Berankis in round 2 to reach that stage. The younger Zverev is favored to reach the quarters.
Denis Shapovalov vs Daniil Medvedev looks like a fantastic round 2 matchup, Medvedev faces qualifier Yosuke Watanuki in his first match. I’ll give Shapovalov an edge until he runs into Kei Nishikori. Nishikori faces Donald Young or Stan Wawrinka, both of whom are struggling, in his first match. The section looks like Nishikori’s to lose.
David Goffin isn’t in great form but a path of Pierre-Hugues Herbert/Mitch Krueger and then most likely local hero Frances Tiafoe isn’t the most difficult. Tiafoe faces Hubert Hurkacz/Ilya Ivashka for a spot in the third round where he has a punchers chance against Goffin.
The fourth section of the draw is a bit weak. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios are the seeds, neither are in great form and Kyrgios may not be fit. Jordan Thompson comes off a challenger final and I have him defeating Jared Donaldson while James Duckworth should defeat Thai-Son Kwiatkowski. I’ll go with Tsitsipas over Kyrgios in the third round, but this is a tough section to predict. Kyrgios should be favored if he’s healthy.
Bottom Half:
John Isner won Atlanta (again) and looks set to make a run in DC if he’s fit. Noah Rubin or Mikhail Youzhny are unlikely to stop him while Andrey Rublev/Tommy Paul/Alex Bolt will also be underdogs in the third round. I have Isner into the quarters.
Karen Khachanov vs Lucas Pouille looks like a good third round matchup. Khachanov should defeat Lukas Lacko/Denis Kudla, while Pouille should defeat Yuichi Sugita or Vincent Millot. I’ll take Khachanov to advance from the section.
Despite Andy Murray being in his section, I’ll back Kyle Edmund to make a run. Edmund beat Murray on grass a few weeks back and Murray should still be rusty, even if he defeats Mackenzie McDonald in the first round. I have Edmund defeating Jeremy Chardy in round 3 with Chardy taking on Mirza Basic or Marius Copil in round 2.
Newport champ Steve Johnson looks like a dark horse. Johnson will open with Vasek Pospisil/Alex De Minaur. Hyeon Chung played well enough in Atlanta to suggest he’ll beat Benoit Paire/Marcos Baghdatis, with Johnson or Chung advancing to the quarters. I’ll take Johnson to win the section.
Marco Cecchinato claimed his second ATP title to continue his record setting year. The rapidly rising Italian eased past Guido Pella 6-2 7-6 after previously dropping just a set against Jiri Vesely prior to the final. Cecchinato defeated Vesely, Laslo Djere, and Marco Trungelliti to reach the final.
Pella for his part reached his first final of the season after wins against Taro Daniel, Aljaz Bedene, Dusan Lajovic, and Robin Haase. He dropped the opening set in his first two matches and had to battle hard to reach the final stage. Haase and Matwe Middelkoop defeated Jebavy/Vesely in the doubles final.
Steve Johnson won a fourth career ATP title and his second on grass with a 7-5 3-6 6-2 win against first time finalist Ramkumar Ramanathan. Ramanthan put up a spirited fight in the biggest match of his career, but it was the veteran Johnson who prevailed in the deciding set. Johnson also claimed wins against Christian Harrison, Dudi Sela, and Marcel Granollers in straight sets to reach the final.
The 23 year old Ramanthan defeated Victor Estrella, Denis Kudla, Vasek Pospisil, and Tim Smyczek, dropping just a set against Kudla en route to the final. He’s hoping there will be more success to come this season after the maiden final breakthrough.
Erlich/Sitak defeated Arevalo/Reyes-Varela in the doubles final with ease.
Fabio Fognini continued to add to what has been a highly accomplished season for the Italian veteran. Fognini claimed his second title of the year defeating Richard Gasquet 6-3 3-6 6-1. It was a good tournament for both players as Fognini defeated Mikael Ymer, Federico Delbonis, and Fernando Verdasco to reach the final, dropping a set in every match except against Delbonis.
Gasquet dropped his opening set of the tournament against Gerald Melzer (winning in 3) then went on to defeat Casper Ruud and Henri Laaksonen to reach the final. Fognini moved closer to the top 10, while Gasquet moved closer to returning to the top 25 with the victory. Peralta/Zeballos defeated Fognini and Simone Bolelli in the doubles final, denying Fognini a pair of titles from the same tournament.
Johnson Wins Second ATP Title in Houston, Andujar Wins Third in Morocco Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Houston
By a score of 7-6 2-6 6-4 Steve Johnson will leave American soil a victor in Houston over countryman and first time ATP finalist Tennys Sandgren. Johnson beat five Americans in Houston, Ernesto Escobedo, Frances Tiafoe, John Isner, and Taylor Fritz being his opposition en route to the final. His win against Tiafoe was the only that came in straight sets on the week. It’s a title defense for Johnson as he won in Houston last year.
Sandgren, aiming for a first ATP title, came up just short, but he made the final with wins over Blaz Kavcic, Nicolas Kicker, Guido Pella, and Ivo Karlovic. Only against Pella did he drop a set. Oswald/Mirnyi took the doubles title over Begemann/Sancic.
Veteran Spaniard Pablo Andujar had only won one ATP match over the 2016-2017 seasons and his career was looking to be almost over. However he’s made a solid comeback from injury, capped off with a 250 title in Marrakech, an event where he had emerged victorious twice previously. Andujar eased past Kyle Edmund 6-2 6-2 and dropped just one set on the week in wins against Ilya Ivashka, Andrea Arnaboldi, Alexey Vatutin, and Joao Sousa.
Edmund played great on clay with wins against Jiri Vesely, Radu Albot, Malek Jaziri, and Richard Gasquet. He’ll be hoping for much more in the bigger ATP clay stops to come though.
Mektic/Peya beat the French pairing of Benoit Paire/Edouard Roger-Vasselin to take the doubles title.
Borna Coric and Steve Johnson Kickoff 2017 ATP Clay Court Season With Titles Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Marrakech
After struggling to start the season, in large part due to rust from injury, Borna Coric is finding form once again and he showed some of his best tennis this week in Morocco, as he took home a maiden ATP title in Marrakech on clay. The 20 year old was pushed to three sets in three matches this week, and had to save match points against his veteran opponent Philipp Kohlschreiber in the final, but after reaching the final for the second straight year, he simply not be denied the trophy, digging deep on pressure points, while Kohlschreiber crumbled. Coric took the final 5-7 7-6 7-5 after beating Jiri Vesely in straight sets in the semis. He beat Diego Schwartzman in straights in round 1, but then needed three sets against Reda El Amrani and Albert Ramos-Vinolas in rounds 2 and 3.
The veteran Kohlschreiber made his first final of the season with wins over Jan-Lennard Struff, Jeremy Chardy, and Benoit Paire, dropping sets to his first two opponents before routining Paire. Kohlschreiber has had an awful time closing matches out when he has a match point this season, and it’s cost him big victories, such as the trophy that was on offer today.
Dominic Inglot and Mate Pavic teamed up to beat Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez to take the doubles final in an upset.
ATP Houston
The crop of top American men continue to show improvements this season, Steve Johnson claimed a second career ATP title and his first on American soil with a narrow three set victory over Thomaz Bellucci 6-4 4-6 7-6. Johnson posted his best results of the season, and he reached the final by virtue of defeating defending champion Jack Sock in the semifinals, that win coming in three sets, along with wins over Dustin Brown and Fernando Verdasco in previous rounds. Johnson is not at his best on European clay, but should be a notable contender in the grass court season this summer.
A big hitter like Johnson, Bellucci had long matches all week, and was able to win them up until the final where he cracked under pressure. The 32 year old reached his first ATP final in more than a year with three set wins over Frances Tiafoe, Maximo Gonzalez, Sam Querrey, and Ernesto Escobedo, yet another American who has reached a high water mark this year, Escobedo is safely inside the top 100 after his result, which included a quarterfinal victory over a struggling John Isner.
Julio Peralta and Horacio Zeballos beat the exciting pairing of Dustin Brown and Frances Tiafoe in the doubles final by virtue of a third set super tiebreak.
2017 ATP Memphis Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A long-time staple on the ATP Tour, Memphis is back again this year with 250 level action on indoor hard courts. Here is your preview, with predictions.
Memphis Open
ATP World Tour 250
February 13-19, 2017
Memphis, TN, USA
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $642,750
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (18)
2: John Isner (23)
3: Sam Querrey (27)
4: Steve Johnson (31)
Just three top 30 players in Memphis, as the once 500 level tournament has struggled to attract top players this decade.
First round matches to watch:
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Jordan Thompson
The 24 year old Georgian #1 Basilashvili reached the semifinals in Sofia, showing great groundstrokes and tremendous fight. Thompson is a rising Aussie who had success in Davis Cup, and is now looking to do more damage on the tour level, with an ATP top 50 ranking on his radar. Basilashvili is better than his ranking, but jetlag will play a factor, and Thompson is the favorite, as he will put a lot of balls in play and win long points.
(WC)Reilly Opelka vs. (WC)Jared Donaldson
Donaldson has dropped four straight matches, but the young American is still a talent. Opelka is another rising American talent, he’s started the year better than his 20 year old counterpart, but has less tour level experience. Opelka’s booming serve, but still underdeveloped return game almost guarantees tiebreaks in this one, Opelka should win a tiebreak or two and take this match.
Big server Ivo Karlovic should get past the Thompson/Basilashvili winner and setup a match against the winner of Taylor Fritz/Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals. Fritz recently made a challenger final, and is defending final points here. The young American will have to contend with Lu’s tiring ball striking, and then a qualifier, either Matt Ebden or more likely Peter Polansky. Karlovic’s serve should be enough to get him to the semifinals unless Fritz really steps up.
American favorite Steve Johnson will battle fellow Yank Frances Tiafoe, or qualifier Tim Smyczek in round 2. Tiafoe is steadily improving and has a h2h edge over Smyczek, but Johnson, who is played Davis Cup after Melbourne, is still likely too solid from the forehand side to drop their round 2 match. Bernard Tomic should be a challenge in the quarters for Johnson, Tomic opens with qualifier Darian King, with Dustin Brown or Mikhail Kukushkin to follow. King is playing in his third ever tour level main draw match, while Tomic needs to find form after a poor set of tournaments in Australia. Brown injured his back in France, thus although Kukushkin is in poor form, I have him as the opponent for Tomic in round 2. Johnson is 3-0 in his career against Tomic and is in better form, the American should reach the semis.
John Isner has struggled to start 2017 but he has a favorable draw in Memphis, and should do some damage. The 2 seed opens with either Yoshihito Nishioka or a slumping Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, with possibly Adrian Mannarino to follow in the quarters, presuming the Frenchman beats Donald Young and the Opelka/Donaldson winner. Mannarino has been great at the challenger level to start the year, and has a h2h edge against Young. The thought of Isner vs. baby Isner (Opelka) is appealing though, and given Mannarino struggled against Isner’s big serve (1-6 h2h), I have him falling to Opelka, and then Isner beating Opelka in the quarters.
We could see a quarterfinal between former Memphis champions if Sam Querrey beats Ryan Harrison/Konstantin Kravchuk, and Steve Darcis beats Radu Albot and Damir Dzumhur/Kevin Anderson. Querrey may not get out of round 2 though, Harrison just won a challenger and has a 1-0 h2h edge. Formerly a solid tour level player, Harrison is on his way to returning to that level of play, and should defeat the journeyman Kravchuk, then Querrey to reach the quarters. The fate of the other former champion, Darcis, is more promising. The Belgian reached the quarters in Sofia after heroics in Davis Cup. Fatigue could play a factor, but Albot is struggling, and Anderson or Dzumhur should be rusty. The big serving Anderson is a shell of the player he once was on fast surfaces after injuries. I have the serve and volleyer Darcis reaching the semifinals with wins over Anderson and Harrison in consecutive fashion.
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Harrison continues his great form and battles past Querrey and Darcis to reach the semifinals, then challenges Isner at that stage. Harrison has always had the talent, but at times he lets himself get lulled into baseline rallies and broken down.
Predictions
Semis Karlovic d. Johnson
Isner d. Darcis
Karlovic beat Johnson twice last year after winning just one of their first four matches. Isner should have too much power for Darcis, and he’ll have home support.
Karlovic leads Isner 3-2 in the h2h, that said, in the USA on hard courts Isner tends to be at his best, I’ll go with the top American in the draw to win this tournament.
ATP – Steve Johnson (USA) vs Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria)
Not Before 1:00 pm
WTA – [9] Carla Suárez Navarro (Spain) vs [2] Angelique Kerber (Germany)
ATP – [12] Marin Cilic (Croatia) vs Borna Coric (Croatia)
Not Before 7:00 pm
WTA – [5] Agnieszka Radwanska (Poland) or [10] Johanna Konta (Great Britian) vs [3] Simona Halep (Romania)
Not Before 8:30 pm
ATP – [1] Andy Murray (Great Britain) vs Bernard Tomic (Australia)
GRANDSTAND start 11:00 am
WTA – [15] Karolina Pliskova (Czech Republic) vs [7] Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia)
Not Before 1:00 pm
ATP – [4] Milos Raonic (Canada) vs [8] Dominic Thiem (Austria)
Not Before 2:30 pm
WTA – [4] Garbine Muguruza (Spain) vs [Q] Timea Babos (Hungary)
Not Before 4:30 pm
WTA – [6] Raquel Atawo (USA) / Abigail Spears (USA) vs Maria Irigoyen (Argentina) / Oksana Kalashnikova (Georgia) or [2] Hao-Ching Chan (Chinese Taipei) / Yung-Jan Chan (Chinese Taipei)
ATP – Treat Huey (Philippines) / Max Mirnyi (Belarus) vs Lucas Pouille (France) / Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) or [2] Bob Bryan (USA) / Mike Bryan (USA)
STADIUM 3 start 11:00 am
ATP – [5] Jean-Julien Rojer (Netherlands) / Horia Tecau (Romania) vs [3] Jamie Murray (Great Britain) / Bruno Soares (Brazil)
ATP – Lucas Pouille (France) / Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) vs [2] Bob Bryan (USA) / Mike Bryan (USA)
ATP – [1] Pierre-Hugues Herbert (France) / Nicolas Mahut (France) vs [6] Daniel Nestor (Canada) / Vasek Pospisil (Canada)
ATP – TO BE ARRANGED – [4] Ivan Dodig (Croatia) / Marcelo Melo (Brazil) vs [8] Raven Klaasen (South Africa) / Rajeev Ram (USA)
COURT 9 start
Not Before 1:00 pm
WTA – After Suitable Rest – Vania King (USA) / Monica Niculescu (Romania) vs [5] Julia Goerges (Germany) / Karolina Pliskova (Czech Republic)
WTA – After Suitable Rest – [4] Martina Hingis (Switzerland) / CoCo Vandeweghe (USA) vs Sara Errani (Italy) / Carla Suárez Navarro (Spain)
Not Before 3:00 pm
WTA – Christina Mchale (USA) / Maria Sanchez (USA) vs [3] Timea Babos (Hungary) / Yaroslava Shvedova (Kazakhstan)
RESULTS – Thursday, August 18
ATP Singles – Third Round
(1) Andy Murray (Great Britain) d Kevin Anderson (South Africa) 6-3 6-2
Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria) d [2] Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) 6-4 6-4
Borna Coric (Croatia) d [3] Rafael Nadal (Spain) 6-1 6-3
2016 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The field at the 2016 Western and Southern Open is still somewhat up in the air due to the Olympic games finishing up, but it’s a Masters 1000 event, and the final big tune up for most ATP players before the 2016 US Open. Here is a preview, with predictions.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, OH, USA
August 14-21, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,362,385
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (2)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (5)
4: Milos Raonic (6)
5: Kei Nishikori (7)
6: Tomas Berdych (8)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Dominic Thiem (10)
I honestly don’t expect Andy Murray to play here, given he’s in the Olympic final down in Rio. Djokovic, and of course Federer are also absent here, as Novak struggled in Rio and needed a break. American Jack Sock is the only other notable player missing from the draw. We could also see Nadal and Nishikori skip because they are contesting the Bronze medal match at the Olympics.
Both hard court matches between this pair have been close. Dolgo has lost four straight and has had a miserable summer. Anderson has lost a pair of matches in his last two touranaments and has had a horrible season while struggling to stay healthy. Anderson is the favorite, and with both players slumping before the US Open, they badly need a win.
(9)Gael Monfils vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Monfils is 2-1 in the h2h against PCB and he’s a remarkable 12-2 since Wimbledon, all on hard courts. The Frenchman is a US Open dark horse, and he narrowly lost out at the medal round in the Olympics. PCB showed surprising form, reaching the semis in Cabo on hard courts, and could give Monfils a bit of a test in the opening round.
(14)Nick Kyrgios vs. Lucas Pouille
The Atlanta champion Kyrgios should serve his way past fellow young gun Pouille, but Pouille is steadier than Kyrgios, and has had a great season in his own right. These young talents are likely to face off for years to come, and this could be a great match.
Opelka reached the semis in Atlanta on US soil, and also won a round in Cabo. He’s burst onto the scene, with a game that matches fellow tall players John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic most notably. This young American is looking to continue his momentum on the ATP level against the veteran Frenchman Chardy who has lost three straight and hasn’t been healthy recently. An upset looks to be in the cards.
Gilles Simon vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Simon won their first four matches, but Dimitrov has won two of the last three, which all took place this season. Dimitrov was bounced early in the Olympics, but he did reach the quarters in Toronto and has shown spotty form. The Bulgarian is more talented than Simon, but Simon is more consistent. It’s a match that is tough to predict, but I give Dimitrov a slight edge.
Murray’s section:
Andy Murray has won Cincy twice, and as mentioned, I could very well see him being replaced by a lucky loser. His first opponent will be either Juan Monaco, or more likely the red hot Cabo champion Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Karlovic has been playing great, and has two ATP titles this summer. Presuming he’s not too fatigued, I’m going with an upset and having him knock off Murray if he plays, simply due to the Rio hangover factor. The Anderson/Dolgo winner is struggling, which means Richard Gasquet should probably win his first two matches since Wimbledon (he opens against a qualifier) to reach the third round and setup a match with Karlovic or Murray that he has a good shot at winning. Presuming he’s fit, I have Karlovic getting past Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori reached the Bronze medal match in Rio and may withdrawal as well, he’d open with Taylor Fritz or a qualifier, and I have David Goffin emerging from his section to reach the quarters. Goffin will face Janko Tipsarevic if he plays, Tipsarevic comes off a strong challenger showing across the world in China. Joao Sousa or Bernard Tomic will follow for Goffin, both are struggling. Goffin won a pair of matches in the Olympics and should get past Sousa. I have Fritz reaching round 3, because I’m unsure what is going to happen with Nishikori.
Raonic’s section:
Milos Raonic should benefit from the top half of the draw opening up because of the Olympics. The Canadian #1 skipped Rio, and should be able to get past John Isner or Fabio Fognini, and then Roberto Bautista Agut or Alex Zverev to reach the quarters. Raonic lost in the quarters in Toronto, and he’d like to do better than that this tournament. Isner reached the final in Atlanta, but Raonic plays the same game at a higher level. RBA has been consistently solid, and he reached the quarters in Rio, I have Zverev advancing because he should be fresher though. The German faces a qualifier while RBA faces serve and volley expert Nicolas Mahut.
Monfils should dominate his section and reach the quarters, presuming he’s healthy. That would setup a Toronto rematch with Raonic most likely. After round 1, the Frenchman would face either Marcos Baghdatis or Vasek Pospisil, with Dominic Thiem likely to follow in round 3, as long as Thiem beats a qualifier. The Austrian hasn’t been healthy recently as his body has been breaking down after a grueling schedule. Monfils thus has the edge. He dispatched Pospisil in Rio.
Nadal’s section:
If Rafael Nadal plays after a grueling run in both singles and doubles in Rio, he’d face Pablo Cuevas or Sam Querrey in his first match. Given he was still taking it easy on his wrist prior to Rio, I’m relatively confident he’ll withdrawal after the Bronze medal match, but if he plays, he should lose to Nick Kyrgios round 3, if Querrey doesn’t knock him off. Borna Coric and Benoit Paire are also in this section. The young gun Coric would love to challenge Kyrgios but I don’t see him doing that with his poor recent form, while the erratic Paire was kicked off the French Olympic team for bad behavior. Querrey also hasn’t been playing well, meaning Kyrgios is the clear favorite.
I’d be surprised if a fresh Tomas Berdych can’t do something with his open section. Berdych gets a qualifier or Marcel Granollers first up, with most likely Marin Cilic to follow in round 3, presuming Cilic beats Viktor Troicki and the winner of Fernando Verdasco/Albert Ramos. Troicki has been in miserable form, but he’s won five straight against Cilic, who has been on and off this season. Verdasco simply isn’t as good as Cilic these days, and thus I have it Berdych over Cilic for the quarterfinal spot. The h2h is 6-4 in favor of the Czech.
Wawrinka’s section:
Stan Wawrinka reached the semis in Toronto, and despite it not being a standout year for him, he stands alone for Swiss tennis right now with Federer out, and he should dispatch Jared Donaldson/Nicolas Almagro, and Feliciano Lopez (or a qualifier), or the Dimitrov/Simon winner to reach the quarters. I have Dimitrov getting past a likely fatigued Lopez, who reached the finals in Cabo, to reach round 3. Wawrinka should power past him at that stage.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Opelka or Chardy, followed by most likely a struggling David Ferrer in round 3. I have Steve Johnson beating Federico Delbonis, and then upsetting Ferrer, after Ferrer beats Julien Benneteau, to reach the third round however. Ferrer has been in terrible form in recent weeks. The Olympic quarterfinalist Johnson is playing on home soil, is solid on hard courts, and faces a Ferrer and Tsonga who are struggling right now. Although he’s not the favorite, I have him reaching the quarters. He’s beaten Tsonga before.
Dark Horses: Ivo Karlovic and Steve Johnson
Karlovic is always dangerous with his serve, and he’s found form at the right time. If the veteran gets a fast court to play on, he could go as far as the semifinals. Johnson had a great run in the Olympics, and I have him breaking through to a Masters quarterfinal opposite Wawrinka.
Predictions
Quarters Goffin d. Karlovic
Monfils d. Raonic
Kyrgios d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Johnson
Goffin and Karlovic have never played, however Goffin has had a solid season and his consistency in the Masters tournaments should be rewarded with another semifinal. Monfils beat Raonic in Toronto, Kyrgios is in better form than Berdych, and Wawrinka should be the strongest player in his half. After losing to Berdych at the AO early this year, Kyrgios has dominated him twice on hard courts.
Semis Monfils d. Goffin
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios
Monfils is a clear favorite vs. Goffin given the h2h, Wawrinka and Kyrgios have split meetings in their careers, however I give Wawrinka the consistency edge.
These veterans haven’t met since 2011, and much has changed since then. Monfils is playing some of the best tennis of his career, and despite having never won a title of this stature, he’s playing like he can win one in recent weeks.
2016 Rio Olympics Men’s Tennis Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Despite the withdrawal of many top players, including Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, John Isner, and Dominic Thiem from the 2016 Rio Olympic games, it’s still one of the top events on the 2016 tennis calendar, as a host of the top players in the men’s game don their national colors for hard court action in Rio. Hard courts of course were a surprising choice given South American is traditionally a clay court continent.
2016 Rio Olympic Games
Olympics
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
August 6-14, 2016
Surface: Hard
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Rafael Nadal (5)
4: Kei Nishikori (6)
5: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
6: Gael Monfils (11)
7: David Ferrer (12)
8: David Goffin (13)
Tomas Berdych, Alexander Zverev, and Richard Gasquet are also notably missing, in addition to the names missing up top. After the great event that was London 2012 at Wimbledon, Rio 2016 feels decidedly less exciting for men’s tennis.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
The most anticipated match of the opening round. Djokovic has won his last three meetings against Del Potro and leads the h2h 11-3, still, Del Potro was the one who defeated Djokovic at London 2012, and Novak wants his revenge as he’s the strong favorite for the Gold medal. Del Potro has been improving rapidly since returning from injury, and he will still bother Djokovic, but Djokovic played so well in Toronto it’s hard to see him losing this match, and he’ll probably win in straight sets.
(15)Gilles Simon vs. Borna Coric
Both players are steady baseliners, and when they met last year Simon won in three sets. Neither has been in great form recently, and the experienced Simon probably has the edge in this match. Coric has the ability to win it though, and this would be a nice scalp for the young gun as he represents his country in Rio. I’m going with Coric in an upset.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Cilic has split meetings against Dimitrov, who comes off of the quarterfinals in Toronto. Cilic lost his opening match in Toronto, though he’s had a better season, and is the better player in this matchup. It’s hard to predict, and I expect it to go three sets, with Dimitrov having a great shot an upset given his recent form.
Djokovic’s section:
Djokovic should roll past either Joao Sousa or the in-form, but likely fatigued, Robin Haase, and then dispatch Jack Sock in the third round, presuming Sock takes care of business against Taro Daniel and Jordan Thompson or Kyle Edmund, both of whom are poorer on hard courts compared to Sock.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the favorite to reach the quarterfinals from the bottom half of the Djokovic section, Tsonga opens with Tunisia’s Malek Jaziri, who is always proud to represent his country, and then a difficult meeting with Gilles Muller is likely to follow, presuming Muller dispatches Jerzy Janowicz. Roberto Bautista Agut could be upset by Andrey Kuznetsov in round 1, but he’s the favorite to reach round 3, unless Rendy Lu gets past Paolo Lorenzi and then upsets him. Tsonga has won his last two meetings against Muller, but he’s lost twice this year to RBA. Still, given his better recent form, Tsonga over RBA is my pick to reach the quarters.
Nadal’s section:
Rafael Nadal hasn’t been healthy and he wishes this tournament was on clay. Despite that, Federico Delbonis, and Andreas Seppi/Illya Marchenko are likely not strong enough to defeat him before the third round. Marchenko’s recently strong challenger form gives him an interesting chance against Nadal, if the wrist pain continues for Rafa. Despite that, I have it as Nadal vs. Coric in the third round, with Coric earning a second career win against Rafa to reach the quarterfinals. Simon would also be my pick over Nadal given the situation with his health, I can’t expect that much from the Spaniard. Coric has to beat Brian Baker or Yuichi Sugita in round 2.
David Goffin should dominate proceedings and reach the quarterfinals from the bottom of the Nadal section. Sam Groth has been in miserable form, in round 2 neither Damir Dzumhur nor Dudi Sela are strong enough players, and Pablo Cuevas, a clay courter, is the seed in Goffin’s section The in-form Niko Basilashivili could upset Cuevas round 1, while Brazil’s top singles entrant, Thomaz Bellucci, should ride home support to a win over Dustin Brown, and perhaps a third round showing with a win over Basilashvili/Cuevas. Bellucci’s strong recent form has come in clay challengers, but it’s a confidence boost none the less, and I have him falling to Goffin in round 3. Goffin beat Bellucci in Brisbane this year and has been solid in most big events.
Nishikori’s section:
A healthy Kei Nishikori should race to the quarterfinals with wins over Albert Ramos, John Millman or Ricardas Berankis, and most likely Philipp Kohlschreiber, presuming Kohli beats Guido Pella, and the winner of Denis Kudla/Andrej Martin. This is a weak section, and Kohlschreiber is declined to the point he can’t challenge Kei from the baseline. Health is also a concern for Kohlschreiber.
Gael Monfils has been amazing on hard courts in recent weeks, and he’s a dark horse to medal in the Olympics. Presuming the Frenchman can stay healthy and focused, he should roll past Vasek Pospisil, Thomas Fabbiano or Rogerio Dutra Silva, and the winner of Dimitrov/Cilic (or Radu Albot/Teymuraz Gabashvili) to reach the quarterfinals.
Murray’s section:
The defending Gold medalist is this year’s favorite for the Silver medal. Andy Murray has been a consistent #2 to Djokovic’s #1 this year, and the Wimbledon champion should have no problems against Viktor Troicki, Mirza Basic/Juan Monaco, and most likely the winner of Benoit Paire/Lukas Rosol in round 3, although Fabio Fognini could surprise if he defeats Victor Estrella, and Paire or Rosol. I have Fognini over Rosol, before falling to Murray.
David Ferrer hasn’t had a great season, but he’s far and above the favorite to reach the third round from his section. Denis Istomin, and Evgeny Donskoy/JL Struff are his opponents to do that, and he’s much better than all of them. American Steve Johnson should be good enough to dispatch Darian King, and Thanasi Kokkinakis or Gastao Elias to reach round 3. Kokkinakis is a talent but he’s making his return from injury. Johnson’s strong season suggests to me he’s ready to make his move, and thus I have him facing Murray in the quarterfinals.
Predictions
Quarters
Djokovic d. Tsonga
Goffin d. Coric
Monfils d. Nishikori
Murray d. Johnson
Djokovic and Goffin are heavy favorites to reach the semifinals and compete for a medal, as much as Nadal, and Tsonga would like to be there, I don’t see either as being in the form to get that far. Monfils vs. Nishikori could be teh match of the tournament, Monfils has looked so good recently though, that he should be able to serve past Kei. Murray is a strong favorite in his section and has an easier path than Djokovic to the medal round.
Semis
Djokovic d. Goffin
Murray d. Monfils
Monfils will have a dark horse chance at reaching the gold medal match, but it should be Djokovic vs. Murray.
Gold Medal Match
Djokovic d. Murray
On a hard court it’s hard to pick against Djokovic after how he played in the Rogers Cup. Murray may take a set, but taking three sets against Djokovic is too much to ask.
Bronze Medal Match
Monfils d. Goffin
Monfils is my pick for the bronze, if not, Nishikori may snatch it. Monfils beat Goffin in a three setter in Toronto recently.
