Cilic Puts Himself Into World Tour Finals, Murray Continues Push for World #1 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Basel
Marin Cilic won his second title of the season and put himself into the final spot avaliable in the Race for London with a 6-1 7-6(5) victory over his rival Kei Nishikori. The Croatian was strong all week in Basel as he posted wins over Mikhail Youzhny, Pablo Carreno Busta, Marcel Granollers, and resurgent veteran Mischa Zverev en route to the final. Zverev took a set off of Cilic and continues to boost his ATP ranking after years in the challenger wilderness. He stunned home favorite Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals.
Nishikori dropped to 1-4 in ATP finals this season, but he did beat Dusan Lajovic, Paolo Lorenzi, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Gilles Muller to make the final. The win over Del Potro was a big one for Nishikori’s confidence, and he looks healthy and ready to challenge the ATP’s elite next season.
Marcel Granollers and Jack Sock beat Robert Lindstedt and Michael Venus in the doubles final.
ATP Vienna
Andy Murray had no trouble in the final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as the world #2 continued his bid for the year end world #1. Murray took home a third straight title, as he’s unbeaten in ATP play since the US Open and showed at 29 years of age there is still room for improvement in his world class game. Murray beat Tsonga 6-3 7-6 for a seventh title this season, and his 69th win, compared to just 9 losses.
Murray dropped sets against Martin Klizan and Gilles Simon earlier in the week, but John Isner provided little resistance in the quarters, and David Ferrer withdrew to give Murray a walkover into the finals and a much needed breather.
Tsonga beat German’s Benjamin Becker and Philipp Kohlschreiber, then eased past Albert Ramos, and battled past Ivo Karlovic in a third set tiebreak to reach the final. The Frenchman only made one ATP final this season but he has now posted more wins in 2016 than he did last season, so there are signs of improvement.
Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo beat Oliver Marach and Fabrice Martin to capture the doubles title.
Mannarino, Janowicz Surge Into @_Swiss_Indoors Main Draw Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
The 2015 Swiss Indoors tournament has a star-studded field with eight out of the world’s top 16 players participating in the event. Headlining the strong field is Roger Federer, who will be bidding to claim a historic seventh title in Basel. Ahead of the main draw, two rounds of qualifying took place with 16 men battling for four places in the main draw.
Mannarino
French top seed Adrian Mannarino endured a bumpy ride into the main draw. In his first round of qualifying he defeated Australia’s John-Patrick Smith (6-4, 6-4), to set up a meeting with American fifth seed Denis Kudla. Kudla moved into the second round after his opponent, Serbia’s Filip Krajinovic, retired at the start of the third set. Mannarino was in danger of losing to Kudla as he trailed 4-0 in the deciding set of the match. Despite the odds being in Kudla’s favour, he failed to maintain the lead as Mannarino clawed his way back to win 6-2, 2-6, 6-4, after an hour and forty-eight minutes.
Mannarino will play in the main draw of the tournament for the second time of his career. The first was in 2013 where he lost in the opening round to Roger Federer. The 27-year-old will be aiming to reach his third ATP final this year after Auckland, New Zealand in January and Bogota, Colombia in July. In the first round Mannarino will play Serbia’s Viktor Troicki for the first time in his career. At 42 in the world, Mannarino is currently ranked 18 places lower than Troicki.
There was consolation for Kudla after he received a lucky loser place in the main draw following the withdrawal of Marcos Baghdatis. In the main draw he will play fellow American Jack Sock. Kudla has played sock on four previous occasions, losing in three of them. Their most recent meeting was in the first round of the Canadian Open where Sock won in three sets.
Former Wimbledon semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz was more convincing in his qualifying campaign. The world No.65 recently underwent surgery on his left knee when he had stem cells injected into it. In the first round, he brushed aside Spanish wild card Jaume Munar (6-1,6-3). The fourth seed faced a potentially tricky match against former top 10 player Minhail Youzhny, who beat Georgian sixth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili in straight sets. The Russian was no match for Janowicz as the Polish player defeated Youzhny 6-4,6-1 after 65 minutes.
Janowicz will play Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber in the first round. The Pole will be hoping to repeat his form displayed during last week’s Vienna Open where he stunned fifth seed Dominic Thiem in the first round. It is this second time this year that Janowicz has played the German. Their first encounter was in the second round of the Stuttgart Open where Kohlschreiber won in straight sets.
Robin Haase overcame a testing second round match to reach the main draw. In the first round, he Defeated Swiss wild card Adrien Bossel (6-2,6-4) to meet Benjamin Becker. Becker dropped just three games in his opening match against Swiss qualifier Antoine Bellier. Despite being broken four times in the second set by the German, Haase edged past Becker 6-4, 7-6 (4).
Haase’s first round opponent will be Austrian 22-year-old Dominic Thiem. The Dutch player currently has a 100% winning record against Thiem after winning their two previous meetings (2014 Vienna Open and 2015 Davis Cup).
Completing the lineup is Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic, who survived a marathon encounter. After a straight sets win over France’s Paul-Henri Mathieu, he faced Belgium Ruben Bemelmans. The Belgian stunned second seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first round. Lajovic was two points away from defeat but held his nerve as he edged his way past Bemelmans 7-6 (3), 6-7 (5), 6-4, after two hours and eleven minutes.
Lajovic’s reward for surviving his marathon match will be a clash with Ukraine’s Alexandr Dolgopolov. The Serbian will be seeking revenge after losing in three sets to Dolgopolov in the third round of the 2014 Miami Masters.
2015 ATP Basel and Valencia Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Two weeks are left in the 2015 ATP Season as the tour stops for a 500 level tournament in Basel, and a 250 level tournament in Valencia, both on indoor hard courts.
ATP Basel
Swiss Indoors Basel
ATP World Tour 500
Basel, Switzerland
October 26-November 1, 2015
Prize Money: €1,575,295
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (3)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (7)
4: Kevin Anderson (12)
5: Richard Gasquet (11)
6: John Isner (14)
7: Marin Cilic (13)
8: David Goffin (17)
A host of top 20 players invade Basel as the final ATP 500 of the season boast a top notch field for a 500 level tournament. Basel has gone above and beyond the home heroes Federer and Wawrinka in terms of attracting tennis talent.
First round matchups to watch:
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (Q)Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz came through qualifying and is 8-3 in his last three indoor hard court tournaments, he also a h2h indoor hard court win over the veteran Kohlschreiber. Peppo is 7-2 in his own right since the US Open though and has posted two ATP semifinal showings this Fall. Big hitting will collide with quality ball striking and with both players in good form it should be a high quality contest. I see Kohlschreiber surviving this early test.
(4)Kevin Anderson vs. Borna Coric
Anderson rolled past the young gun Coric in Winston-Salem this year but the Croatian is returning to the scene of one of his best ever wins, as he beat Rafael Nadal in a shocker here last year. Anderson has two ATP quarterfinals this fall and continues to play some great fast surface tennis. Coric is just 1-3 in his last four matches and could badly use a confidence boosting win. This one should be closer than expected but Anderson should serve too well for Coric to notch an upset.
(6)John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis
Ernests Gulbis has plenty of talent but he’s endured yet another awful and disappointing season.With that said, things may be turning around for the Latvian #1, as he reached his first ATP semifinal of the season in Vienna and snapped a long losing streak. Isner lost to Gulbis in Vienna last week and he’s looking to avenge that three set defeat with methodical serving. Given his 2-1 overall h2h on hard courts and Gulbis lack of consistency I look for the American #1 to avoid getting upset again.
(2)Stan Wawrinka vs. Ivo Karlovic
Home hero Stan Wawrinka needed a third set tiebreak to get past the big serving Ivo Karlovic in Cincy this year, but he leads the overall h2h 5-1 and he’ll have the crowd behind him for this tricky opening round match. Nobody likes to play Karlovic given how well he serves and he does have two ATP quarterfinals this Fall. With that said, Wawrinka’s form and motivation should be good enough to win a tiebreak or two and advance.
Top Half:
Six time Basel champion Roger Federer always plays well at his home tournament and has been fantastic this season when not facing the top 3 (excluding his shocking early loss in Shanghai to Albert Ramos). Federer could have an interesting round 2 match against the Kohlschreiber/Janowicz winner, but otherwise I look for him to get through to the semifinals unscathed. Federer is 2-0 against his round 1 opponent Mikhail Kukushkin, a journeyman, and 10-0 in the h2h against Kohli, though the German has tested him this season. In the quarterfinals the Swiss Maestro is likely to face David Goffin, his understudy. Goffin isn’t in great form but he opens with a struggling Andreas Seppi, and then either Viktor Troicki, or more likely qualifier Adrian Mannarino, both of whom are struggling as well. Federer is 2-0 against Goffin and they met in the final of Basel last year.
Anderson and Isner should be on a collision course to meet in the quarterfinals, if young talents with firepower don’t derail them. After Coric, Anderson will face either Henri Laaksonen or Donald Young and he should roll through that one given his superior talent and form. Isner has a more difficult test with Stockholm finalist Jack Sock likely to await him in round 2. Sock will need to beat fellow American Denis Kudla first, and Isner of course has to beat Gulbis. Kudla has won the past three meetings against Sock, even though Jack has surpassed him in terms of ranking and career accomplishments. Sock has an ATP quarterfinal and his second career ATP final already on his resume this Fall and is in the midst of a career year. Given the fact he played in both the singles and doubles finals in Stockholm, Kudla upsetting a tired Sock wouldn’t surprise me, and I give Isner an edge to get past Sock regardless (4-1 h2h).
Isner has won the last five meetings against Anderson and though it should be a tight quarterfinal contest, I give the American #1 the edge to survive in tiebreaks and reach the semifinals.
Bottom Half:
Stan Wawrinka has never reached the finals in Basel and his draw doesn’t get any easier after Karlovic as the dangerous shotmaker Alexandr Dolgopolov should await him in round 2. Dolgo faces qualifier Dusan Lajovic and is likely to snap a five match losing streak since reaching the Cincy Masters semis this summer. Dolgo has a 2-1 h2h edge over Wawrinka, who can get erratic at times and play well below his ranaking (while Dolgo can play like a top 10 player). With that said, given the Ukrainians poor form as of late I favor Wawrinka (or Karlovic) to reach the quarters. There, Stockholm semifinalist Richard Gasquet should be waiting and he may well be the favorite to reach the semifinals after going through a path of Jiri Vesely and most likely Dominic Thiem in rounds 1 and 2. Thiem has hit the skids since reaching the semis in St. Petersburg and faces qualifier Robin Haase first up. Both Gasquet and Thiem have very technically sound games and it should be a must-see match in round 2 if they meet.
I look for Gasquet to continue his good form and oust the Tokyo champion Wawrinka at home. once more denying him a shot at the Basel trophy. Gasquet beat Wawrinka on grass this year at Wimbledon and each player features an elite backhand.
Rafael Nadal got a relatively benign path to the quarterfinals, The Spaniard, who is 7-2 since the US Open with an ATP final and semifinal on hard courts, opens with Lukas Rosol first up. Rosol famously shocked him at Wimbledon, but he’s failed to repeat that type of result on a consistent basis, and though he comes off the quarterfinals in Vienna I don’t see lighting striking twice. A seemingly healthy Nadal badly needs late season points to boost his ranking and should give it his all after another rough season by his standards. Grigor Dimitrov, a quarterfinalist in both Stockholm and Kuala Lumpur, is another player with the talent to trouble, and in fact, oust Nadal, but given his flat season and recent form, I don’t see that happening. Dimitrov, who is now working with Franco Davin as his coach, played better in Stockholm last week but is still playing well below his abilities. Nadal is 6-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, who opens with Sergiy Stakhovsky round 1.
Marin Cilic has been on fire since the US Open and he was given perhaps the easiest path to the quarterfinals of any of the seeds. The Moscow champion is 10-3 this Fall and is finally back playing near to the level he was at when he won the US Open title, before he suffered an injury that messed up the first half of his 2015 season. Cilic is playing above his current ranking and should blitz Marco Chiudinelli and Moscow quarterfinalist Teymuraz Gabashvili (who opens with a struggling Leonardo Mayer) in his first two matches. Fatigue could play a factor in his performance, but he has such an easy early path that I see him getting through.
On a hard court Cilic has the game to give Nadal fits, but with both players in good form, I give Rafa an edge due to the fact he should be fresher for their match, either way it’s an interesting section.
Dark Horse Ivo Karlovic
Jack Sock is likely too gassed to make a run in this one, so I’m going with Karlovic as my dark horse this week. All it takes is Dr. Ivo winning a couple of tiebreaks and he could slip past Wawrinka and bust the bottom half of the draw wide open. At 36 he’s a remarkable 36-23 on the season with an ATP title, an ATP final, and a handful of ATP semifinals as well. Karlovic has already beaten Tomas Berdych, Novak Djokovic, and Milos Raonic this season, and he’s looking to add Wawrinka (and possibly Gasquet’s) name to that list.
Prediction
Semis: Federer d. Isner
Nadal d. Gasquet
You can’t really predict Federer not to reach the final here no matter what happens with the other section. The tournament organizers surely want a Federer vs. Nadal final, and I feel they are going to get it this time. Presuming Wawrinka goes out, Rafa (or Cilic) have a big edge to make the final. Gasquet has a famous mental block against Rafa.
Final: Federer d. Nadal
Nadal has a matchup edge with Fed generally speaking, but indoors and with Federer in much better form this season the Swiss should take his seventh Basel trophy.
ATP Valencia
Valencia Open
ATP World Tour 250
Valencia, Spain
October 26-November 1, 2015
Prize Money: €537,050
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Feliciano Lopez (16)
3: Bernard Tomic (18)
4: Fabio Fognini (22)
Basel is understandably much stronger this week but Valencia has still gathered some fan favorites and three top 20 players.
First round matchups to watch:
Joao Sousa vs. Gilles Muller
Joao Sousa has lost three straight but he did reach the final in St. Petersburg and he’s at his best in these indoor hard court 250s where he often gets on a hot streak and rides it to a final. The Portugese ballstriker will go up with the consistent serve and volleyer Gilles Muller. You know what you’re going to get with Muller, but he’s had a fantastic season and has two ATP quarterfinals and a semifinal on his resume this fall (7-3 record). You never know with Sousa, but Muller should continue to serve well and volley crisply for a win.
(7)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (WC)Nicolas Almagro
Fan favorite Spaniard Nico Almagro is trying his best to return to the ATP level after injuries, while his countryman Roberto Bautista Agut looks to continue the energy from his best result of the season in Moscow, where he reached the final last week. Almagro won a round in Stockholm last week and RBA could be feeling fatigued, making this match worth watching, but more than likely RBA will be too consistent and advance.
Steve Johnson vs. Martin Klizan
Steve Johnson is nearly into the top 30 now and he’s in the midst of a career year o nthe ATP World Tour. Johnson is favored in this match after reaching his first ever ATP final in Vienna, and he’ll try to follow up that run with a solid win over the power hitter Klizan, who posted a semifinal in Metz not long ago. Klizan is very inconsistent but when he’s at his best it’s hard to deal with his powerful ground strokes. Johnson should be favored but I’m not certain he’ll win this.
Top Half:
David Ferrer is a three time champion in Valencia and he badly wants to clinch his ATP World Tour finals spot at home. The Spanish veteran is 50-12 this season and just captured his fifth title this year in Vienna. He also has a title in Kuala Lumpur this Fall and he’s tearing up the indoor hard court circuit. Nick Kyrgios, a semifinalist in Kuala Lumpur, and a quarterfinalist in Tokyo, will do his best to stop him, presuming Kyrgios beats a qualifier in round 1. That should be a difficult test for a possibly fatigued Ferrer, and Kyrgios has the firepower to win it, but Ferrer’s fight and consistent groundstrokes should help him advance.
Look for Jeremy Chardy or Vasek Pospisil to fall victim to that trademark Ferrer fight in the quarterfinals. Pospisil opens with a struggling Santiago Giraldo while Chardy faces Aljaz Bedene. They both should win those matches, and Chardy has been in better form (reached the quarters in Stockholm) thus I have him beating Pospisil. Though to his credit, the Canadian has had tough draws recently. Ferrer is 7-2 against Chardy in the h2h but Chardy shocked him at the US Open this year when Ferrer wasn’t 100% healthy. Ferru will get his revenge and reach the semis this week.
Shanghai quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic lost early in Stockholm but he should be a near lock for the quarterfinals this week, with only Pablo Cuevas/Pablo Carreno Busta in his way. Tomic is inconsistent and that’s something either Muller/Sousa or Benoit Paire should take advantage of. Paire opens with a qualifier and has been playing with renewed passion this season. The Frenchman has a challenger and an ATP final since reaching the second week of the US Open. With that said, he could well be fatigued from those runs. I have Muller beating Sousa, Paire, and the junkballer Tomic to reach the semifinals as a dark horse. The conditions in Valencia should suit his game.
Bottom Half:
Feliciano Lopez has a terrible record in Valencia and he could well go down in defeat once more at the hands of Johnson/Klizan. The 34 year old has an ATP final this Fall in Kuala Lumpur, but his poor record here has me favoring Klizan to sneak into the quarterfinals thanks to a lucky draw, even though it looks harsh. Fernando Verdasco also has a good draw, needing only to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (6-2 h2h) and a qualifier to reach the quarterfinals. GGL did reach the Shenzen final but both Spaniards could badly use a positive result right now as they are struggling. Verdasco beat Klizan at Wimbledon this year, but the Spaniard is in the midst of his career decline and Klizan should find a way to dark himself to a win.
Beijing semifinalist and Vienna quarterfinalist Fabio Fognini seems to have found that rare moment of consistent top 20 play, and he’s not going to want to share that bliss with either a qualifier or the struggling Thomaz Bellucci in round 2. Fognini should make it to consecutive ATP quarterfinals, and he’ll have a great shot to knock off fellow ball striker RBA in the quarters (5-2 h2h). RBA faces Marcel Granollers/Andrey Rublev in round 2, presuming he defeats Almagro.
Dark Horse: Gilles Muller
If Muller plays within himself and relies on his trademark style he should at least draw some crowds, and at the best manufacture a late career masterpiece and find a way to win an ATP title in Valencia. Like Karlovic, Muller’s serve and volleying leaves little room for error, and he faces a beatable field if he’s allowed to do things his way.
Prediction
Semis:
Ferrer d. Muller
Fognini d. Klizan
Fognini is the stronger player in his section, and he’s faced Klizan in big matches before. Ferrer tends to play well against serve and volleyers.
Final:
Ferrer d. Fognini
Look for Fognini to catch fire and beat down anyone in his path, that is except for Ferrer, who strikes the ball well and should be able to challenge everything Fognini does well. The Spaniard is motivated and that has to be part of the equation when it comes to taking the title. Ferrer jut got past Fognini indoors in Vienna.
2014 ATP Basel, Valencia Previews & Picks By Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The ATP 500 series of tournaments will conclude for the year with a pair of indoor hard court tournaments in Switzerland and Spain as the fight for ranking points, prize money and the final two World Tour Final Spots continues. Both tournaments offer very enticing entry lists and possible matchups.
ATP Basel
Swiss Indoors Basel
ATP World Tour 500
Basel, Switzerland
October 20-October 26, 2014
Prize Money: € 1,458,610
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Rafael Nadal (3)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Milos Raonic (9)
5: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
6: Ernests Gulbis (13)
7: David Goffin (28)
8: Ivo Karlovic (30)
Basel boasts 3 of the top 5, 4 of the top 10, and 6 of the top 20 ATP players in the field this week, it’s a stellar field for a 500 level event.
First Round matchups to watch:
Jarkko Nieminen vs. Vasek Pospisil
A former finalist in Basel, Nieminen is likely to have trouble getting out of the first round this year because his opponent is the in-form Vasek Pospisil. It’s a battle between a young power baseliner and a speedy, defensively adept, veteran shotmaker. Nemo and Vashy have never met before and neither are playing poorly at the moment. In an unseeded contest that I see going to 3 sets, Pospisil should survive.
(3)Stan Wawrinka vs. Mikhail Kukushkin
Stan the Man is a home favorite and one of the stars headlining Basel, but he will need to be on upset alert against the in-form Kukushkin. Kuku reached the semifinals in Moscow and pushed top 10 player Marin Cilic to 3 sets. He also has wins over solid ATP competitors Tommy Robredo, Kevin Anderson, Fabio Fognini and Mikhail Youzhny in recent weeks, and he pushed Novak Djokovic to 3 sets in Shanghai. He may be a bit fatigued, but Wawrinka is entering Basel on a 3 match losing streak. I doubt motivation will be an issue for him as a home player, but if Kuku can provide some pressure against Stan here, he may well fold up shop early.
(7)David Goffin vs. Dominic Thiem
Goffin has already beaten Thiem three times this season on three different surfaces, and he is currently on a 10 match winning streak. Thiem, by contrast, has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, including most recently in the first round of Vienna. That said, Thiem is still a rising young gun with a lot of talent and two of the three previous head-to-head meetings went to a decisive third set. Goffin is a player on a tear right now, and should win this contest against a competitive opponent.
(6)Ernests Gulbis vs. Borna Coric
Another seed who should be on upset alert: Gulbis made the semis in Moscow, but his shoulder injury continues to be suspect, and it will be a quick turnaround physically for him in Basel. Coric is a driven, hungry, young player who is looking for marquee wins to make a name for himself, and taking out a top player like Gulbis would be huge for his confidence. The teenager is on a two match losing streak and he hasn’t exactly been winning a lot of matches against top competition, but with Gulbis being in suspect physical condition, anything is possible.
(2)Rafael Nadal vs. (Q)Simone Bolelli
It befuddles me why Rafa is still playing right now. He needs appendix surgery and has opted to put it off until the end of the year. Perhaps he really wants the appearance fee he will make for playing Basel. All that said, he is clearly in precarious physical condition, and he lost to Feliciano Lopez in Shanghai, his last match. Feli is an opponent he has dominated before, and I believe if Bolelli can put up any sort of competitive resistance, Nadal may be weakened enough for him to win this. Nadal has a 3-0 lead in the h2h, but Bolelli did grab a set off the Spaniard indoors in Rotterdam, and though it’s an iffy pick I have Bolelli winning this one, having come through the qualifying rounds with a pair of wins. Bolelli is a feisty enough player to not be intimidated by Nadal, and he has talent, so it seems like a reasonable pick.
Top Half:
Roger Federer begins his quest for a sixth title in Basel against Gilles Muller, who will likely give him a test but I do not see much upset potential there given how well Federer played in Shanghai, and the fact he leads the h2h 4-0. Denis Istomin or Jerzy Janowicz awaits the world number 2 in the second round. Both can be dangerous at times, but Fed is 5-0 against Istomin and has a h2h win over Janowicz on clay, so again he should advance into the quarterfinals.
Look for another Federer vs. Grigor Dimitrov match in Basel, this time in the quarterfinals. The Stockholm finalist opens with the young gun Alex Zverev, who is not as skilled indoors as he is on clay, and then will get the Pospisil/Nieminen winner. Vashy or Nemo could test a possibly fatigued Dimitrov, but I’m going to stick with the favorite through to the quarters. After that, it’s Federer over Baby Fed given it’s Basel, and Dimitrov would have put in a lot of matches in consecutive weeks by that point.
The Wawrinka/Kukushkin winner is likely to face Benjamin Becker in round 2, assuming the veteran German defeats qualifier Gastao Elias. Becker comes off quarters in Vienna and like Kukushkin, he is playing well. I see Becker beating Wawrinka if he emerges from that round 1 match with Kukushkin, and a Becker-Kuku match is a toss-up for me, giving a very slight edge to Becker, who I have making another quarterfinal this week. He made the quarters in Kuala Lumpur and the semis in Tokyo this Fall as well.
A weak quarter of the draw exists below the Wawrinka section, headlined by 8 seed Ivo Karlovic, who opens with a struggling Lukas Rosol. Karlovic comes off quarters in Vienna, while Rosol has lost four of his last five matches. Karlovic should be favored to reach the quarters, because his round 2 opponent will be either Federico Delbonis or Kenny De Schepper, a qualifier. De Schepper is in many ways a poor man’s Karlovic, relying almost exclusively on his powerful serve, but less effectively, and Delbonis was just defeated by Karlovic in Vienna. The Argentine clay courter has not proven himself to be a viable competitor indoors. Becker/Kukushkin should topple Karlovic to reach the semifinals, though Ivo has a 6-1 h2h edge over Becker. Becker beat him this year in Cincy, and I feel form favors him to advance.
Bottom Half:
The Nadal/Bolelli winner will face qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Edouard Roger-Vasselin. ERV is saddled with a five match losing streak at the moment and he’s been poorly for a while. Herbert, on the other hand, has done very well in the fall indoor events in Europe even while having to play the qualifying rounds. He qualified here in Basel and in Stockholm, where he won a match. If Bolelli gets through, I’d put Herbert into the quarterfinals by virtue of the fact he’s at his best indoors and mainly has struggled to live up to his potential throughout his career thus far.
If Nadal is notably weakened and loses early, this section will open up for the Coric/Gulbis winner, given Teymuraz Gabashvili, and Andrey Golubev, their possible round 2 opponents, are far from imposing. I have Gulbis into the quarterfinals, and then defeating Herbert just given the ranking discrepancy, but this is an incredibly hard section to predict and I could see it breaking a multitude of ways. Coric, Bolelli and of course Nadal could all make cases for why they should be the semifinalist in this section of the draw. It’s a shaky toss-up section and quarter based upon the health of Gulbis and Nadal, and the form of Herbert, Coric and Bolelli.
Goffin/Thiem will be in the drivers seat in the section above Gulbis. The winner of that match is likely to face Ivan Dodig, assuming he dispatches Marco Chiudinelli, and either Goffin or Thiem should be favored to reach the quarterfinals over the inconsistent Dodig, who can play really well at times, but then quite poorly in his next match. Look for Goffin to reach the quarterfinals here and continue his winning streak.
Milos Raonic lost his first match in Moscow, but he was likely still recovering from being ill, and he ought to be in good enough condition to beat Steve Johnson and Carlos Berlocq/Donald Young to reach the quarters. Johnson has a dark horse chance at being a quarterfinalist if Raonic is not up to par, but Raonic has a h2h edge. Given how well Goffin has played since Wimbledon, I have him in the semis over Raonic. Raonic is one of the four players left competing for the final two World Tour Final Spots. He’s on the outside looking in, though and he is the only one of the four (Berdych, Murray, and Ferrer) who is playing Basel this week, losing early in Moscow while Murray, Berdych and Ferrer all gained ground with a pair of titles and a final respectively, really hurting the Canadian’s chances.
Dark Horse: Benjamin Becker
It is quite possible that two non-seeds will reach the semifinals, and Becker is my pick to be one of them. The German has been consistent this fall and he plays well indoors on quicker surfaces. His late career resurgence should set him on a path to the semifinals to face Federer, who he is very unlikely to defeat.
Predictions
Semis:
Federer d. Becker
Goffin d. Gulbis
Fed and Goffin have to be favorites this week, unless Nadal, Dimitrov, Raonic or others like Becker, Pospisil or Kukushkin can exceed expectations and rise to the occasion. Both have been two of the most consistent performers this fall and they would be well-deserved to make the final.
Final:
Federer d. Goffin
It’s hard to pick against Federer in Basel. Goffin might be playing out his socks right now but Fed is a whole different level and he is also playing well right now.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Federer d. Kukushkin
Nadal d. Goffin
Final:
Nadal d. Federer
ATP Valencia
Valencia Open 500
ATP World Tour 500
Valencia, Spain
October 20-October 26, 2014
Prize Money: € 1,496,095
Top 8 seeds (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (5)
2: Tomas Berdych (7)
3: Andy Murray (10)
4: Feliciano Lopez (14)
5: John Isner (15)
6: Roberto Bautista Agut (16)
7: Kevin Anderson (17)
8: Gilles Simon (18)
Valencia has three of the current top 10, and all of the tournament seeds are top 20 players. This tournament is not as star-studded as Basel, but it is more balanced and competitive.
First Round matchups to watch:
Mikhail Youzhny vs. (Q)Thomas Bellucci
The defending champion, who also has another final in Valencia on his resume, is in danger of failing to advance out of the first round against an in-form Bellucci. Normally known for his prowess on clay, the veteran Brazilian has surprisingly found some late season form indoors and he has now won four of his last five matches, including a quality three set win over Feliciano Lopez in Vienna, where he made the quarterfinals. Youzhny was likewise a quarterfinalist in Moscow but he has had few impressive wins this season and didn’t have a difficult path to the quarters. Youzhny is 2-0 against Bellucci on hard courts in his career, but I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Bellucci to get an upset win over the seemingly fading Russian in a battle of the veterans.
(6)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Santiago Giraldo
RBA, a finalist in Moscow, should be a heavy favorite over Giraldo, who has lost three straight matches. That said, both players are gifted shotmakers with strong forehands, and they tend to play well in a streaky manner. Both have had career years in many respects and I expect this to be an entertaining and underrated encounter, even if RBA gets through comfortably.
(8)Gilles Simon vs. Alex Dolgopolov
Simon is 8-3 since the US Open, and he of course made the Masters final in Shanghai, where he lost to Federer in a pair of tiebreaks. After struggling all season, the Frenchman has suddenly found a run of excellent play. Dolgo, by contrast, had a hot start to his season but since injuring his knee he has lost 3 straight matches to equal or inferior opponents in terms of talent and ranking, most recently to Adrian Mannarino in Stockholm. This has the potential to be a fantastic match because both guys bring a lot to the table, and the defensive grinding of Simon contrasts with the quick aggressive play of Dolgopolov. Dolgo leads the h2h, all on hard courts, 2-1, but Simon is playing much better right now and should advance, evening up the h2h in the process.
Top Half:
Hometown hero David Ferrer, who has won his local ATP tournament 3 times previously, opens with the veteran Italian Andreas Seppi in round 1. Ferrer played well and reached the final in Vienna last week, keeping up with his fellow competitors for one of the final two World Tour Finals spots. Assuming Ferrer doesn’t suffer another shockingly underwhelming result, he should get into round 2 to face his countryman Fernando Verdasco, who will take on Leo Mayer in round 1. Verdasco made the quarters in Stockholm and the two Spaniards have had contrasting careers of over and underachievement in many respects. Ferrer is 4-1 on hard court in his career against Verdasco and with the World Tour Finals and hometown pride at stake, he should reach the quarterfinals with RBA/Giraldo or Youzhny/Bellucci awaiting him. Assuming RBA is not overly fatigued, he is most likely to reach the quarters. Ferrer is 2-0 career against RBA, and I’d give him a very slight edge to reach the semis, though RBA has a case as well and it’s not cut and dried.
Shenzen and Vienna champ Andy Murray will open with a slumping Jurgen Melzer. Melzer is still capable of good tennis, but I don’t see him troubling Murray currently, given how well the Scot is playing this fall. Murray should also crush Albert Ramos or a tanking Fabio Fognini without any trouble as he pursues one of the final two World Tour Final spots available. The former Valencia champ could find himself in the quarters against Philipp Kohlschreiber, a semifinalist in Vienna. Kohli opens with a struggling Kevin Anderson, who appears ready for the season to be over, and then should face Martin Klizan in round 2, assuming Klizan defeats young American wild card Stefan Kozlov. Klizan pulled out of Vienna, but he was, of course, a semifinalist In Beijing, where he beat Nadal and Gulbis, and he could make a streaky run in Valencia as well. I’ll go out on a limb with my own bracket and put Klizan into the quarters over Kohlschreiber, but falling to Murray at that stage.
Bottom Half:
Stockholm champ Tomas Berdych, who has been playing very well this fall, should roll past Pablo Andujar and Joao Sousa/Dusan Lajovic before colliding with John Isner/Tommy Robredo in the quarters. Robredo made the quarters in Moscow, but Isner is 3-0 career against him, including 2-0 on hard courts, so he should be favored to win that round 1 battle. Isner/Robredo will face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Rendy Lu in round 2, both streaky players who are unlikely to put up much resistance. Berdych has won his last four meetings against Isner, including most recently in the Beijing quarterfinals. The Czech tends to do everything the American does as a strength, only better, and with more variety to his game. Look for Berdych to make another semifinal or better this week.
Feliciano Lopez was upset in Vienna, but he should get past round 1 on home soil against qualifier Norbert Gombos, and I’d also favor him over one of his countryman in round 2. Pablo Carreno Busta or Marcel Granollers. That said, Gilles Simon should be able to roll to the semifinals if he can defeat Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy or qualifier Malek Jaziri, who might put up some resistance, but Simon should be in the right form right now to get himself to the semis.
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan seems to the non-seeded player who is in the right kind of form to make noise while having a good spot in the draw. If the Slovak can get past Kohli/Anderson in round 2, he would almost assuredly face Murray, who appears to be a very tough out right now, but he’s still more beatable than he’s been on previous occasions. I don’t see Klizan getting past the quarters, but the possibly is there if something goes wrong with Murray.
Predictions
Semis:
Murray d. Ferrer
Simon d. Berdych
Murray just beat Ferrer in Vienna. It was a close match, but still the result is likely to be the same a week later. Simon likewise just defeated Berdych recently in Shanghai and he’s 2-1 on indoor hard against the Czech in what has been a pretty even h2h history. Simon should be fresher than Berdych and that is why I give him the edge.
Final:
Murray d. Simon
Murray won a great 3 setter with Simon in Acapulco this year when both players were struggling to find their form. He’s totally dominated the h2h with the Frenchman, including a 7-0 record on hard courts because he’s a superior counterpuncher and returner compared to Simon, and has more weapons than the Frenchman when it gets down to it. Murray wants to play in front of the home crowd in London at the World Tour Finals and a title in Valencia would go a long way towards clinching him a spot.
Tennis Atlantic 